为简单起见，假设我们同时相信民调显示民众对脱盟和特朗普当选存在近50%的支持率与专家认为只有25%成功率这两种观点。
Suppose, for the sake of simplicity, that we start by giving equal credibility to opinion polls showing Brexit and Trump with almost 50% support and expert opinions, which gave them only a 25% chance.