在排除了欧元区发生无序解体的情形后（可能性极低 ） ， IMF对2012年全球贸易的基线预测是全年增长4 % ， 这一预测颇为合理。
Barring a disorderly breakup of the eurozone, which seems unlikely, the International Monetary Fund’s baseline forecast of 4% annual growth in world trade for 2012 seems reasonable.