分析师和投资者一贯依然都认定脱盟胜利是低概率事件：在五月下旬，博彩市场和电脑推演模型都只把特朗普胜选和脱盟成功概率定在25%左右，尽管民意调查显示两个事件都获得了近乎50%的支持率。
Analysts and investors have consistently assigned low odds to insurgent victories: in late May, betting markets and computerized models put the probabilities of Trump’s election and of Brexit at only around 25%, despite the fact that opinion polls showed almost 50% support for both.