首先，当外部流动性相对宽松，而中国流动性相对较紧，这会给影子银行带来利率上升的压力，并助长人民币套息交易的增长，及促使汇率升值，特别是相对那些没有与美元挂钩的、正在贬值的货币升值 。
For starters, as long as external conditions remain relatively liquid, tighter conditions in China put upward pressure on interest rates in the shadow-banking sector. Together with the growth of the renminbi carry trade, this has pushed up the exchange rate at a time when non-US dollar-linked currencies are largely depreciating.