由于美国和以色列不愿意用威慑的方式牵制有核的伊朗，因此2013年可能爆发军事冲突，这将导致油价的暴涨和全球衰退。
With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession.