首先，全球经济中的尾部风险（低概率、高冲击事件 ） — —欧元区崩溃、美国掉下财政悬崖、中国经济硬着陆、以色列与伊朗因核扩散问题开战 — — 较一年前有所降低。
First, the tail risks (low-probability, high-impact events) in the global economy – a eurozone breakup, the US going over its fiscal cliff, a hard economic landing for China, a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation – are lower now than they were a year ago.