sunday roundup week see conservative government reelect term uk margaret thatcher return show david cameron win easily labour liberal democrats lose big clear loser pollster believe prediction virtual tie pollster exactly roll march poll wrongly show dead heat israel zionist union party benjamin netanyahu likud fact win handily home poll midterm overestimate democrats senate race percent new candidate mike huckabee carly fiorina ben carson toss hat crowded presidential ring week good time remind folly breathless poll obsess political coverage people poll matter focus horse race expense debate real issue make loser