[1] 所有概率书谈到主观概率的时候都用明天天气举例子,本书不能免俗.但真实天气预报说的这个概率是"在与明天条件类似的日子里,有30%下了雨",并不怎么主观.[2] 关于贝叶斯定理的历史,请参考Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, 2011, The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy 一书.此书故事精彩,但不知为何作者一直到结尾处