How Much Are We Slowing Down?
 目前经济放缓了多少?
 After a decade of gains from global equity markets without a major economic crisis, investors are justifiably concerned about whether the world is due for another slowdown. We take a look at some of the signs of an economic slowdown to try to understand how much closer we are to another downturn than in recent years.
 在没有出现重大经济危机的情况下,全球股票市场获得了十年的收益之后,投资者有理由担心全球经济是否会再一次放缓.让我们来看一看经济放缓的一些迹象,试图了解我们与下一次经济衰退的距离会是几年.
 Around the world, there are signs of slowing growth to various degrees. In the US, the New York Federal Reserve's recession probability model made headlines when it reached nearly 33% in July, crossing the 30% mark which has preceded every recession since 1960. Most recently, this was around the highest level the indicator reached before the 1991 US recession, though it crossed the 40% threshold in both the subsequent dot com bust and global financial crisis. The cause was the inversion of the Treasury Spread between the yields of the 10-year Treasury Note and the 3-month Treasury Bill, which we previously discussed in March. Lower Treasury yields in longer maturities are a sign of diminished expectations of future growth. However, other economic indicators, such as job growth and retail sales remain strong.
 在世界各地,有不同程度的经济增长放缓的迹象.在美国,纽约联邦储备银行的经济衰退概率模型在7月成为了新闻头条,彼时该模型数值达到近33%,超过自1960年以来每次经济衰退之前的30%大关.最近,该指数达到1991年美国衰退之前所达到的最高水准,尽管该指数在随后的网络泡沫破灭和全球金融危机中都超过了40%的门槛.而究其原因是10年期美国国债收益率与3月期国库券收益率之间的国债价差反转,而该话题我们此前曾在3月份的文章中讨论过.长天期国债收益率较低是未来增长预期减弱的信号.然而,其他经济指标,如就业增长和零售销售依然强劲.
 Source: NY Fed
 来源:纽约联邦储备银行
 Asia is feeling the effects of the trade war against China initiated by the US, with China's Q2 GDP growth falling to 6.2%, the lowest rate in 27 years. For the first six months of 2019, China's imports and exports both fell year over year. Diminished global trade spilled over to other countries in Asia as both India and Indonesia reported drops in exports of around 9% in June. And Europe perhaps has the most to be concerned about, with growth for the Eurozone forecast to be around 1.4% and for the UK to be around 1.2% for 2019. PMI manufacturing data for these regions have already fallen well below 50, into contractionary levels.
 亚洲正受到美国发起的对华贸易战的影响,中国的第二季度GDP增长率降至6.2%,是27年来的最低水准. 2019年首六个月,中国的进出口均同比下降.全球贸易减少也蔓延至亚洲其他国家,印度和印度尼西亚均报告6月份出口下降约9%.而欧洲也许是最应受到关注的,预测欧元区2019年经济增长率约为1.4%,英国增长率约为1.2%左右.这些地区的PMI制造业数据已经远低于50,进入紧缩水准.
 To be sure, it's still too early to say whether the world will tip into recession. There are still steps that policymakers can take to delay any eventual downturn, such as cutting interest rates and pushing fiscal stimulus. One thing to consider in advance though is that this time around, governments have even less ammunition to deal with a global recession, with government deficits rising and interest rates low. As investors, we also would like to be extremely sure that a downturn is imminent or in progress before we would consider reducing our investment exposure in any significant way. For now, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on any further deterioration on economic conditions while keeping your investment strategy flexible enough to deal with a wide range of potential outcomes.
 可以肯定的是,现在说世界是否会陷入经济衰退还为时尚早.政策制定者仍然可以采取一些措施推迟任何最终衰退,例如降低利率和推动财政刺激措施.然而事先要考虑的一件事是,这一次,由于政府赤字上升,而利率在低水准,政府应对全球经济衰退所能使用的弹药相比之前甚至更少.作为投资者,在我们考虑以任何方式大幅减少投资敞口之前,应先特别确定经济衰退即将来临或正在进行中.就目前而言,谨慎地密切关注经济状况的进一步恶化,同时保持您的投资策略足够灵活,足以应对各种潜在的结果.
 Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm's and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.
 郑先生为可承资本,一家总部设于香港的独立投资办公室之董事合伙人.这篇文章反映了他的个人而非公司观点.该文章不应被视为投资建议.
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