new york republican frontrunner donald trump upend presidential primaries year rely heavily free air time twitter expense local-ad buy throw question estimate november presidential election could translate billion spend tv advertise trump tv ads schedule go 11-state super tuesday primaries investors analysts grow increasingly concern trump could continue advertising-light strategy build bruise debate performances large rally often show cable tv even win republican party nomination broadcast industry pin 2016 local tv ad spend believe someone pretty amaze leverage power social media would real problem television say media analyst rich greenfield new york-based equity firm btig research think trump elevate whole new level far 10-million spend advertise donald trump compare 32 million hillary clinton 49 million marco rubio almost 85 million jeb bush accord data ad age bush drop republican contest early month trail badly would worry broadcaster trump say media industry analyst michael nathanson moffettnathanson research trump decision steer clear political action committees use money make hard assume act like traditional candidate say concern trump impact come time share many broadcasters count strong political advertise market hurt far year share nexstar broadcast group inc 23.9 percent gray television inc stock fall 29.2 percent share e.w scripps co well fargo analyst marci ryvicker previously peg one likely benefit political spend 9.2 percent well cut outlook scripps monday look like kind environment count say one prominent small-cap fund manager say sell share e.w scripps trump candidacy want give name trade yet public broadcasters like media company also hurt grow trend consumers cancel cable subscriptions practice know cord cut mention economy less robust sure analysts caution still relatively early election cycle trump likely pivot advertising-heavy campaign become republican nominee especially likely face battery tv ad attack clinton widely expect democrat candidate pullback spend trump part likely offset spend influence vote state local level various measure november ballot well ad buy congressional elections say tracy young analyst evercore death early month supreme court justice antonin scalia make key senate race important next senate likely play key role successor new york businessman michael bloomberg another prominent figure decide stand independent third-party candidate could also drive total political spend high bloomberg billionaire former mayor new york city tell aid draw plan independent campaign u.s. presidency indicate would will spend least billion money source familiar situation say last month total 3.8 billion spend political tv advertise 2012 last presidential election year accord research firm kantar media cmag total spend obama romney campaign relate advocacy group 953 million view political season bonus get every two years say salvatore muoio whose firm new york-based muoio co llc invest number local broadcasters tegna nextar media general still bullish sector company meanwhile tell investors worry trump nomination would negative effect become nationwide campaign post-convention money need spend win nexstar broadcast expect bring 100 million political spend cycle tell analysts earn call last wednesday democrats republicans hold conventions late july nexstar own operate provide program 104 television station reach 62 market across country include florida texas california west virginia steven mark co-chief operate officer sinclair broadcast group 164 station stretch iowa ohio florida tell analysts thursday would suspect nominee think loud rnc republican national committee go choice back money flow prize big still little money likely come trump campaign say steve passwaiter business development lead kantar media intelligence guy king earn media passwaiter say every tweet send post billion websites spend whole heck lot money report david randall jessica toonkel ediitng linda stern martin howell article fund part sap independently create reuters editorial staff sap editorial involvement creation production trump 's low advertise spend weigh u.s. broadcasters