examine data reuters use make bold prediction notice give consideration high probability democrats likely find way give illegal alien opportunity cast ballot 2016. illegal alien voters aside reuters interest somewhat hopeful study elections mysterious events subject whimsy unpredictable candidates voters actually highly predictable set variables influence outcomes familiar ways.because say reasonable confidence republican move white house 2017.that conclusion base result data model create primarily result two factor relate challenge face successor candidates candidates party incumbent first republican win voters typically shy away party currently power incumbent run fact successor candidate three time less likely win second president barack obama approval rat low suggest successor candidate take white house.why confident especially opinion poll data give hillary clinton edge republican opponents simple answer rely model polls.at point election cycle poll data ask horserace question vote november 2016 mislead far election day publish poll data average percentage point compare true election outcome enormous number use elections candidates win two three points.time election average error poll compare final result one week 1.7 one month 2.7 two months 3.8 three months 4.8 six months 5.8 nine months 6.9 twelve months 7.9 source ipsos analysis 300 poll across 40 market 1980 currentmodeling result simple concept look past data identify pattern use pattern make predictions begin aggregate data past u.s. presidential elections immediately hamper fact many elections work 25 go back 100 years.so create much large database elections look beyond unite state hundreds presidential parliamentary elections democratic countries around world exercise give us far data work sample size 450 elections 35 countries.the important find model power incumbency already hold office seek far likely retain model show incumbents threefold great chance beat opponent incumbent run successor candidates case democrats three time less likely win.our model prove power presidential approval rat determine order successor candidate good even chance win sit president must approval rat 55 percent barack obama average approval rat 45 percent successor candidate i.e democrat unlikely win.president govt approval rat incumbent probability victorysuccessor probability victory40 55 45 78 14 50 90 28 55 96 49 60 98 71 source ipsos analysis 450 elections since 1938our model work basis probabilities focus party level rather candidate level seek predict likelihood change party power 85 percent predictive ability right time things could confound model include rapid change obama approval rat unusually high low turnout drive wild card candidates factor .in come months obama approval rat may tick would pass 55 point mark give democrats even odds keep white house extremely unlikely give fact presidential approval typically decline time obama rat exception.some argue hillary clinton special chance significantly good give popularity status legacy candidate seem like incumbent go along hypothesis run model obama current approval rat clinton chance win general election still less half.the democrats quite mountain summit retain power past 2016.via reuters reuters say reasonable confidence republican win white house 2016