frankfurt german army contemplate fissure european union rise global conflict one six scenarios might play 2040 german magazine spiegel write week edition eu experience damage debt crisis 2010-12 navigate britain departure 28-country club first country choose lose bloc scenarios german army strategists envisage situation countries follow britain footsteps world become increasingly disorderly eu enlargement largely abandon state leave bloc write study cite spiegel increasingly disorderly sometimes chaotic conflictual world dramatically change security policy environment germany europe magazine say study would follow concrete armaments plan develop come years defence ministry spokesman say sunday study label strategic perspective 2040 make robust predictions attach probabilities trigger decisions decline comment content report confidential five scenarios cite spiegel include one eastern european state halt progress eu integration others enter eastern bloc likely reference russia ally german chancellor angela merkel say eu risk run trouble unless allow members participate vary level intensity use euro currency pull close together two scenarios army study saw comeback russian-style state capitalism eu countries halt globalisation two envisage peaceful world german army contemplate eu fissure scenario study spiegel