u.s. democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton republican candidate donald trump tight race ahead nov. u.s. presidential election follow roundup wall street take likely outcome u.s. elections analysts still expect clinton win low probability fbi reveal examine newly find email relate clinton 's use private server secretary state reut.rs/2evjsek prior revelation analysts largely focus likelihood albeit small one democratic sweep white house senate house representatives election implications scenario financial market reut.rs/2fciz2o coverage bit.ly/2dogcoe tina fordham chief global political analyst citigroup probability 75 pct probability clinton victory remain unchanged due longstanding caution risk black swan developments fbi late announcement clinton email probe add significant obstacle clinton campaign likely dent voter confidence fbi announcement could increase risk trump lose accept result threaten clinton victory transpire preside republican-controlled divide congress risk continuous investigations future impeachment risk non-negligible shawn golhar head public policy research barclays capital fbi director letter may drive reluctant gop voters poll convince remain undecided voters support donald trump unclear sway election enough trump give democratic electoral firewall early vote indications trump lack voter turnout campaign 2016 elections continue two tail end risk donald trump win democrats sweep white house chamber congress friday announcement likely increase trump chance win whittle already slim chance democratic sweep alec phillips u.s. political economist goldman sachs probability imply online prediction market sec clinton win white house decline last several days 80 pct 90 pct market last couple weeks 64 pct 75 pct november ... say secretary clinton still see prediction market twice likely win election mr. trump poll tighten u.s. presidential election ... however even adjust sec clinton lead state poll diminish margin nationally still appear likely win 270 electoral vote need clinch white house start point note reliably democratic state sec clinton currently lead least mid-single digits worth 263 electoral vote reach 270 must add north carolina 15 evs clinton lead around 2pp colorado evs clinton lead 1-2pp and/or nevada 2nd congressional district maine evs plus ev clinton lead around 1pp contrast mr. trump solid lead state worth 186 evs reach 270 would need add arizona 11 evs trump lead around 1pp florida 29 evs trump lead around 1pp ohio 18 evs trump lead around 2pp plus colorado nevada north carolina combination score electoral vote even deep democratic territory still significant poll deficit mr. trump overcome large number state particularly contrast sec clinton simply need win one competitive state currently lead colorado nevada north carolina maintain sizable lead others win stephen gallagher americas head research societe generale baseline outcome secretary clinton win 2016 u.s. presidential election donald trump chance modest still viable late fbi interest email demonstrate till over traditionally lose candidate race concede basis incoming result call typically early morning exercise challenge 2016 trump promise maintain suspense without concession market general public may presume outcome basis result difficult confirm state certify result thomas block washington policy strategist fundstrat global advisors fundamentals continue point clinton victory 75 percent chance clinton/kaine win margins likely close key swing state however trump surprise outperform primaries recent events impossible capture poll nothing certain factbox wall street 's take possible outcome u.s. elections