ottawa canada rule liberals special election quebec monday pick parliamentary seat province insiders say party need good retain power 2019 federal election provisional result show prime minister justin trudeau liberals constituency lac-saint-jean 36 percent vote separatist bloc quebecois second place opposition conservatives close behind third conservatives hold seat sit legislator retire early year liberals hold 41 quebec 78 seat privately say need win another 12 province offset expect losses elsewhere maintain majority house commons election october 2019. quebec poll show party far ahead conservatives bloc quebecois province-wide support national opinion survey though show trudeau government slip popularity amid allege conflict-of-interest problem involve finance minister bill morneau provisional result also show conservatives easily retain seat sturgeon river-parkland western province alberta party stronghold canada 's liberals win quebec seat sign pre-election strength