erbil winners among iraq kurds weeks kurdish president masoud barzani gamble away people autonomy defiant independence referendum lose bet come steep price everyone involve barzani give presidency kurdish political foes anger popular base kurdish people overwhelmingly vote break away iraq feel ever lifelong dream independence ultimate winner analysts say iran widely believe back orchestrate iraqi prime minister haider al-abadi oct. 16 offensive recapture kurdish held-areas include oil-rich city kirkuk iranians outwit americans drive force behind deal hand kirkuk say hassan shaaban political commentator right activist baghdad balance power transform north iraq expose limit hand kurds play future negotiations also expose dominant role iran play transform fate kurdish region iran poise exploit political aftermath push move centre power regional capital erbil barzanis kurdistan democratic party kdp dominate kurdish ally city sulaimaniya iran always one step ahead referendum say renad mansour iraq expert chatham house think-tank know barzani never go postpone vote say add u.s. leave scramble iranians plot senior iranian official say tehran advise barzani referendum would listen try stop referendum interest unfortunately mr barzani miscalculate social base among kurds go ahead vote ali shamkhani secretary iran national security council quote say mehr news agency tuesday iranian major-general qassem soleimani years ally patriotic union kurdistan puk main rival barzani kdp referendum draw powerful iranian commander even close kurdish politics show far iran reach extend beyond central government baghdad ahead vote soleimani warn kurdish leaders northern iraq withdraw force kirkuk face fiery onslaught iraqi force iranian-backed fighters accord kurdish iraqi officials warn prompt kurdish peshmerga fighters withdraw areas deepen split barzani power base erbil rival talabani clan sulaimaniya long ally iran iraqi politicians voice concern grow influence iran despite praise abadi rein kurdish ambition feel worry see octopus arm stretch deep north say ahmed asi al-obeidi sunni tribal sheikh member kirkuk tribal council see problems iranian meddle cause part iraq include mainly sunni areas amount interference repeat kurdish areas bad come instability prevail address people demoralize humiliate territorial defeat barzani say sunday would step one month vote champion face regional international opposition accuse enemies commit high treason surrender kirkuk iraqi force without fight rival direct accusation hold referendum first place vote ensue political military retribution baghdad back iran turkey demolish position relative strength kurds enjoy years blame place barzani shoulder political opponents notably rival talabani clan ally iran western ally anger insistence hold vote advice sunday kurdish lawmakers agree divide barzani presidential power parliament judiciary government absence imminent presidential elections name successor barzani remain head kdp dominate parliament government still sit high political council opaque non-governmental body emerge referendum thus retain ability influence policy barzani could therefore mitigate mount political chaos position instead highlight lack clarity charge crucial negotiations baghdad get underway region future dominant since become president 2005 barzani consolidate power office boost family members political profile referendum barzani son masrour likely successor damage back vote instead nechirvan barzani masoud nephew regional prime minister move fore gain barzani newly devolve presidential power maintain tie kurdish opposition make palatable candidate mend regional fence also enjoy close relationship turkish president tayyip erdogan monday unite state commend barzani step say would actively engage nechirvan deputy qubad talabani member rival political faction maintain good relationship emerge next leader kurdistan regional government anything straightforward addition intra-kurdish compromise influence baghdad iran consider senior kurdish officials kdp puk say best bet present unite front negotiations baghdad seem impossible iraqi force include iran-backed shi ite militias control border cross north vital trade rout kurds military capitulation kirkuk crush blow kurds morally financially halve region oil export revenue overnight talabanis face succession crisis follow death former president jalal talabani iran saw disintegration kurdish ally talabani say mansour add iran need clear successor ensure continue influence another set sons nephews vie leadership aftermath referendum puk base express widespread disappointment leadership handle kirkuk crisis betray leaders kirkuk stop us fight iraqi shi ite militias say puk-allied peshmerga commander ask identify fear retribution sell us iran benefit graphic iaq 's kurdish zone click tmsnrt.rs/2yxrwci iran see winner iraq 's kurds lose referendum gamble