new york even sunday night 's vicious presidential debate republican donald trump lose grind many state need win capture presidency accord late reuters/ipsos state nation project analysis release monday project estimate election hold end last week democratic candidate hillary clinton least 95 percent chance win enough state reach minimum 270 electoral college vote need become next president base poll sept. 30 oct. _________________________ state nation would take donald trump turn map red _________________________ odds steadily grow 60 percent sept. 15 almost 90 percent sept 30. last four weeks estimate margin victory grow 14 vote 118 accord project poll capture reaction trump performance sunday debate release friday 11-year-old sexually aggressive comment women result however mirror estimate chance win campaign statistical analysis outfit fivethirtyeight example put clinton chance victory election 55 percent three weeks ago currently estimate odds clinton win 82 percent period new york time estimate odds clinton victory also increase 70 percent 84 percent pennsylvania ohio nevada florida lean toward democratic candidate accord reuters/ipsos project online survey 15,000 people every week arizona iowa too-close-to-call category consider likely trump state broadly state-by-state result show trump support slide last week lose grind least 21 state include seven 18 state lead improve position 19 state meanwhile clinton lose grind 12 state include three 23 state lead improve stand 30 sate base result trump best hope victory would require precipitous drop number democratic voters go poll nov. expect level combine similarly large increase republican turnout locker-room talk trump crude comment grope women aggressively pursue marry woman capture open microphone send campaign turmoil record first report washington post make 2005 advance cameo appearance soap opera weekend numerous republican elect officials candidates respond call trump step aside trump respond wan support among republicans call hypocrites sunday debate apologize say comment locker-room talk also attack bill clinton treatment women say hillary clinton jail use private email server secretary state trump say elect would appoint special prosecutor investigate nearly yearlong fbi investigation email conclude early year charge file although fbi director jam comey say clinton careless handle sensitive material sexually explicit comment controversy follow publish report suggest republican party leadership internal debate shift resources away presidential race u.s. house senate race republicans currently control branch congress many experts think control senate could shift democrats although predict republicans lose control u.s. house representatives even weekend trump campaign struggle two weeks negative news coverage begin campaign first presidential debate sept. 26 reuters/ipsos poll suggest clinton shortly first debate new york businessman also attack tweet begin early hours morning former miss universe clinton refer debate example trump degrade women also period new york time report detail trump lose nearly billion 1995 loss could use avoid pay federal tax 18 years depend annual income clinton share woes well include release hack email last week comment appear make bank big business 2014 comment push open trade open border take conciliatory approach wall street position late back away last week clinton 's white house chance 95 percent reuters/ipsos state nation