new york election analysis conduct reuters/ipsos state nation project show race tighten considerably past weeks republican presidential nominee donald trump project win florida essential battleground state election hold today project base weekly track poll 15,000 americans show 2016 presidential race could end photo finish nov. major-party candidates run nearly even electoral college body ultimately select president state nation project deliver weekly tally support candidates every state show race tighten several traditional battlegrounds pennsylvania move likely win democratic presidential nominee hillary clinton tossup ohio move tossup likely win clinton florida consider likely win republican nominee 50 percent support trump 46 percent support clinton election hold today project estimate clinton 60 percent chance win 18 electoral vote last week project estimate clinton 83 percent chance win election separate national reuters/ipsos track poll clinton continue lead trump percentage point recent bout pneumonia appear scar away supporters national sept. 9-15 track poll show 42 percent likely voters support clinton 38 percent back trump clinton mostly lead trump poll since democratic republican national conventions end july regain advantage week lead briefly fade late august clinton advantage among minorities women people make 75,000 year moderate political lean trump advantage white men avid churchgoers people near retirement age overall americans appear relatively uninspired choices president less eight weeks go election one every five likely voters say support clinton trump president comparison one every 10 likely voters support obama republican challenger mitt romney similar point 2012 presidential campaign respondents take survey video surface clinton nearly collapse sept. 11 memorial new york sunday campaign late say non-contagious bacterial form pneumonia video spark renew discussion health candidates trump 70 would old president take office clinton 68 would second old clinton trump candidates since release detail personal health clinton doctor say physical exam normal apart pneumonia excellent mental condition trump release note doctor say excellent physical health americans appear overly concern health either candidate accord separate question poll conduct week american adults say issue would make difference vote negligible percentage clinton supporters say concern health make less likely vote clinton lead candidates four-way poll likely voters include gary johnson libertarian party jill stein green party seven percent respondents support johnson percent back stein reuters/ipsos poll conduct online english 50 state late horserace poll survey 1,579 likely voters past week question candidates health survey 1,179 american adults sept. 12-16. poll credibility interval measure accuracy percentage point national poll produce vary measurements support 2016 campaign clinton trump differences partly due fact poll like reuters/ipsos try include likely voters others include register voters reuters/ipsos track poll gather responses every day report result twice week often detect trend sentiment poll poll aggregators calculate average major poll show clinton lead trump shrink month recent individual poll put clinton advantage percentage point race tighten project u.s. electoral college vote reuters/ipsos