san francisco/washington donald trump rise de-facto republican nominee president pose unusually high level uncertainty investors businesses potentially weigh economy federal reserve plan raise interest rat year uncertainty always present elections feed hike rat past campaign season graphic tmsnrt.rs/1rd6a1u possibility firebrand new york real estate mogul occupy white house present step risk unconventional policies propose lack detail achieve economists say promise make america great trump raise fear trade war say would slap steep tariff chinese mexican import also vow deport 11 million undocumented migrants unite state suggest though late retract partial default u.s. debt feed officials say avoid discussion domestic politics rate-setting meet transcripts previous election-year policy discussions show political uncertainty factor think though clear pattern loosen tighten bias run-up elections recent comment feed officials acknowledge campaign rhetoric could spill economy consumers political rhetoric slow spend pause little bite capex slow ... get take account dallas feed president robert kaplan tell reuters last thursday ask view trump policy proposals say one never know never allow seep work atlanta feed president dennis lockhart say fair say election could factor year economy feed keep rat hold 0.25-0.5 percent last month signal rush raise soon cite slow economic activity despite improve labor market feed policymakers march forecast two rate hike year raise last december first time nearly decade reuters poll economists release thursday show push back expectations feed raise interest rat september june feed chair janet yellen feed policymakers often cite uncertainty economic financial policy outlook factor interest-rate decisions vix measure stock-market volatility one approach measure uncertainty query influential business owners another exact mix measure feed use know stanford university professor nick bloom economic policy uncertainty index present yellen economists recently april last year another approach feed consider index analyze newspaper coverage policy-related economic uncertainty divergence economic forecasters predictions u.s. outlook among factor uncertainty high firm put pause hire investment decisions bloom say interview trump look like serious contender still make mexican wall trade rape comment mother policy uncertainty spike run election trump say would build wall mexico-u.s. border accuse china rap u.s. unfair trade policies rise index bloom say would foreshadow decline production investment employment policymakers pay close attention financial market volatility well economic data feed delay expect hike last september china sharp economic slowdown cause stock market drop tighten financial condition strong trump candidacy could similarly upset market economists say reuters/ipsos poll release wednesday show trump run nearly even democrat hillary clinton among likely u.s. voters dramatic turnaround since become party presumptive nominee traders see 36.5 percent chance republican take presidency accord futures price iowa electronic market trump gain poll market react poorly market turmoil would good argument feed stay hold say cornerstone macro economist roberto perli former feed board staffer china mexico second third large trade partner unite state respectively trade stuff anti-growth harmful u.s. outlook say douglas holtz-eakin president conservative think tank american action forum former director congressional budget office utterly unpredictable political element point add holtz-eakin also chief economic policy adviser senator john mccain 2008 presidential campaign trump say policies boost u.s. job business interest say like low rat also say would replace yellen term expire 2018 win presidency far little indication bloom uncertainty index spike fell read 98.39 april november ahead feed well-telegraphed rate hike read uncertainty like vix look similarly benign voters go poll nov. 8. historically bloom index jump ahead tight presidential ballot well time policy uncertainty u.s. debt ceiling debate 2011. surge 90 point index could presage one percent decline production decline employment investment half percent base bloom model ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ graphic show past feed rate move election years tmsnrt.rs/1rd6a1u ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ different time trump candidacy could weigh feed think