berlin 2008 fit pique angela merkel cautious response global financial crisis french president nicolas sarkozy lash german counterpart france act germany think sarkozy seethe nearly decade late election weaken merkel vault new far-right party german parliament european fear risk-averse inward-looking germany back sit european capitals watch nervously say robin niblett director chatham house think tank london merkel room take conciliatory position play leadership role move europe forward narrow back 2008 complexity fast-moving financial crisis aversion big stimulus measure make merkel cautious time domestic politics driver time new french president emmanuel macron press merkel work reshape europe brexit negotiations britain near crunch time german chancellor face months difficult coalition negotiations could lead dead-end able cobble together three-way coalition business-friendly free democrats fdp environmentalist green option would almost surely less stable construction current government new coalition would cope confrontational opposition bundestag lead merkel bitter outgo partner social democrats spd disruptive alternative germany afd first far-right party sit parliament half century weakness merkel conservative bloc score 32.9 percent low since 1949 strength afd result decision 2015 allow hundreds thousands refugees germany hurt stand within party spook bavarian ally christian social union csu bleed support afd sunday vote csu likely even difficult partner merkel fdp green merkel preside entry bundestag extreme right wing party indictment sort weaken without doubt say niblett europe political establishment enter 2017 concern populist tsunami lead brexit britain donald trump election win unite state would sweep continent instead dutch back liberal incumbent mark rutte far-right firebrand geert wilders french choose unabashedly pro-european centrist macron marine le pen germany sunday political center also hold party center-right center-left 73 percent roughly 22 percent far-right afd hard-left linke vote also reminder europe populists go away expose crack pillar stability germany merkel come represent perhaps challenge decade europe since world war two german election double blow european perspective say pascal lamy former head world trade organization wto one hand merkel come exemplify stability emerge politically weaken anti-european force gain people berlin capitals describe result begin end merkel era although pledge monday serve full four-year term many expect hand successor two three years carsten brzeski chief economist germany ing say monday election result could turn merkel lame duck much fast anyone anticipate officials paris capitals suggest next big european reform may do without others express concern direction germany could take post-merkel era fear probably overdo merkel survivor best mediate different camp come months want convince disparate party like csu green fdp work together agree reform euro zone macron become challenge fdp hardline view priorities european defense cooperation may become easy social democrats spd government advisers french president note senior officials european commission say months german coalition talk could actually provide space need macron ideas gain traction still negotiations carry risk twelve years power merkel gain reputation smother coalition partner csu spd victims sunday election four years ago fdp boot parliament first time post-war era serve junior partner lead potential partner push hard bargain fail form stable majority government would probably spell end merkel chancellorship broadly could usher new period political chaos former german foreign minister joschka fischer say project syndicate commentary tuesday one wish germany europe new risk europe inward-looking germany