new york republican donald trump appear carve wide path white house number state include florida ohio long consider likely win democratic rival hillary clinton accord late reuters/ipsos state nation project release saturday project combine opinion poll analysis vote pattern different election scenarios still show clinton would best chance win presidency nov. election hold today yet trump catch level support several state clinton 83 percent chance win election average 47 vote electoral college body ultimately select president late august state nation estimate clinton 95 percent chance win average 108 electoral vote past weeks clinton lead national poll slip considerably poll tend narrow election day near clinton campaign struggle overcome controversy handle classify information serve secretary state separate reuters/ipsos poll likely voters show 8-point lead clinton vanish since last week august clinton still favor win 17 state include many large urban populations new york new jersey california heavily influence outcome election trump would likely win 23 state many small populations number state project clinton drop past weeks two state ohio florida consider likely win clinton late august candidates even support five state include michigan north carolina also grab sample size insufficient determine outcome wyoming vermont alaska district columbia though alaska usually vote republican washington d.c. democratic party candidate reuters/ipsos state nation project drive online survey gather responses 15,000 people per week responses weight accord late population estimate respondent rank accord likelihood vote poll complete project tally level support estimate error candidates run multiple election simulations give respective support click project interactive tool allow users set turnout target various voter group trump close clinton 's project electoral lead reuters/ipsos poll