ankaraa new turkish political party found former minister vocal critic tayyip erdogan could cost president crucial support potentially unseat main opposition poll suggest wednesday survey prominent poll firm gezici show iyi parti good party found month breakaway nationalist lawmaker meral aksener could mark dramatic shift turkish politics eclipse secular chp dominate turkish politics large part republic history five members 550-seat parliament join aksener party survey suggest could win voters several party include erdogan islamist-rooted ak party well secular nationalist group although turkey next elections due 2019 pollster gezici ask 4,638 respondents would vote event snap election support erdogan rule ak party power since 2002 would fall 43.8 percent 49.5 percent november 2015 parliamentary poll survey show aksener party would win 19.5 percent vote beat secularist people republican party chp 18.5 percent show would mark first time since 2002 elections chp establish turkey founder mustafa kemal ataturk main opposition chp 25 percent vote 2015. nationalist mhp aksener previously serve lawmaker interior minister pro-kurdish hdp see fall 10 percent threshold need enter 550-seat parliament mhp see poll 8.8 percent 11.9 2015. hdp whose leaders jail crackdown follow last year fail coup see take 7.0 percent 10.8 2015. gezici one accurate pollsters result april referendum change constitution poll conduct oct. 10-15 days widely expect announcement formation iyi parti respondents ask choose list potential political party include aksener party aksener expel last year nationalist mhp small three opposition party parliament launch fail bid unseat party leader devlet bahceli whose support help erdogan narrow victory april referendum expand authority since expulsion 61-year-old become one prominent voice country frequently criticize erdogan government case iyi parti participate potential snap elections akp would win 47 percent chp would earn 26.8 percent poll show akp found erdogan hold majority parliament nearly 15 years win almost 50 percent vote 2015 erdogan party officials say aim win half vote come general elections version story correct sixth paragraph show chp main opposition since 2002 elections decades new turkish party could cost erdogan support dislodge main opposition poll