berlin bar upset main uncertainty surround europe important election year whether angela merkel continue lead germany next week vote long take get go although surprise rule wake russian interference pollsters say confident survey show merkel conservatives win seat bundestag low house far-right anti-immigrant alternative germany afd set enter parliament first time experts say may gain support roughly 10 percent poll suggest alarm prospect many home abroad party rule join coalition inherent part germany electoral system likely scenario probably repeat merkel grand coalition social democrats spd start sound partner right sept. 24 vote coalition build protract process could paralyze policy months time brexit shake europe foundations process especially complex time number parliamentary group could rise six four informal sound exploratory talk precede formal coalition negotiations party leaders may also seek approval members sign deal depend shape coalition main issue stake integration million migrants arrive germany last two years investment europe 's big economy well merkel 's lead role talk reform european union relations russia turkey main scenarios conservatives social democrats grand coalition likely option accord opinion poll merkel parliamentary party make christian democrats cdu bavarian christian social union csu govern spd eight 12 years merkel chancellor include last four make possible merkel steer conservatives toward political center grind look comfortable rule spd coalition would likely large majority provide continuity broadly agree europe turkey foreign policy migration security issue hurdle last resort side especially spd fear lose junior partner want emphasis investment education tackle inequality fair pension conservatives focus tax cut spd also reluctant back plan defense spend hike conservatives free democrats black-yellow conservative block pro-business free democrats fdp traditional partner especially financial economic policy rule together almost half post-war germany seven decades win sufficient vote likely scenario make possible pro-business fdp rebound year win enough vote vote germany populous state north rhine-westphalia may share power cdu repeat federal level would herald tax cut deregulation possibly tight laws immigration asylum seek security hurdle fdp wipe parliament 2013 four chaotic years rule merkel radical tax reduction privatization plan oppose deep eu integration want eu countries able quit euro zone party leader christian lindner also suggest germany accept russia 2014 annexation crimea ukraine something merkel rule conservatives fdp green jamaica reference party colour black yellow green yet untested federal level combination rule northern state schleswig-holstein make possible merkel bloc form alliance fdp green alone may try three-way deal small party play option may lure prospect power hurdle green fdp opposite end political spectrum policy clash would likely tax energy eu migrants conservatives green black-green untested federal level moot option merkel push renewable energy cdu green work together regional level include greens-led coalition rich southern state baden-wuerttemberg make possible green leaders pragmatic worlds away eco-warriors found party prospect power may persuade compromise coalition would promote strong europe focus fight climate change green would push phaseout coal-fired power station hurdle doubtful would win majority conservatives want low tax green want tax super rich green liberal migrant policy could pit csu oppose plan increase defense spend clash also likely aspects energy policy auto emissions regulation follow diesel scandal minority government would first stability-craving germans would like may prefer new elections make possible merkel fail find partner may feel mandate rule give personal popularity would probably get support individual policies fdp spd green hurdle merkel natural caution couple germans fear instability legacy fragmentation years precede rise hitler nazi party spd leave green red-red-green r2g highly unlikely never test federal level tie spd green prefer partner radical leave party could way spd take chancellery test state berlin spd leadership leave premier state thuringia make possible first time spd exclude possibility join leave coalition would probably focus boost investment tackle inequality adopt russia-friendly stance hurdle leave link communists former east germany painful spd memories exodus leave deep labor market reform decade ago spd green could rule together relatively easily leave want top tax rate 75 percent 30-hour week replace nato alliance include russia post-election conundrum await germany 's merkel