washington president donald trump promise balance federal budget decade rest sustain rise percent annual economic growth promise election campaign vague feedback effect low annual government deficit hundreds billions dollars projections leap faith many economists federal reserve regard unlikely country population age productivity lag also hinge continue low interest rat low inflation full employment decade free major economic shock sort mild recession consider part capitalist economy normal up down accord summary table release administration monday night administration assume economic growth reach percent annually end trump first term stay least 2027. actual first quarter economic growth weak 0.7 percent annualized basis though current feed forecast expect 2.1 percent growth year economic growth one reason plan forecast tax receipt grow around percent year even president promise tax cut spur investment create job inflation assume hit feed percent goal stay compare feed current forecast percent 2016. budget assume unemployment rate rise slightly current 4.4 percent rate stay long-term average 4.8 percent without jump growth steady environment surround deficits would increase much half trillion dollars year around accord administration estimate include effect economic feedback reduce government annual shortfall amount grow 496 billion 2027. exact nature effect economic feedback detail initial document president barack obama last budget assume 2.6 percent annual growth even consider optimistic professional economists federal reserve central bankers pencil trend u.s. growth around 1.8 percent long run wall street analysts give credit trump possible tax cut ideas forecast economic growth could hit 2.3 percent 2020 accord late quarterly poll forecasters philadelphia feed due respect full fiscal trump magic never realistic outlook erik nielsen chief economist unicredit write note clients sunday growth since 2000 average 1.9 percent unite state course decade difference trump percent figure compound additional trillion annually would get spend invest tax administration also assume interest rat remain low 10-year treasury bond rate rise 3.8 percent remain figure critical project government borrow cost 10-year bond average near level throughout century currently well periods fast economic growth generally involve high rat likelihood tight monetary policy likely demand u.s. securities economy accelerate trump 's budget depend strong growth 'feedback balance