new york sluggish forecast u.s. economic growth well increase u.s. state medicaid pension contribution cost create budgetary squeeze many state capitols accord research report issue global rat monday risk recession within next 12 months fall 15-20 percent range 20-25 percent rate economic expansion expect remain fairly anemic 1.8 percent long term roughly 10 years well 3.0 percent average growth rate prevail 1980 2000 report say risk federal policy could trigger recession ease potential dramatic scaling-back federal aid medicaid never great report say slow-growth economy produce sluggish revenue trend state say gabriel petek analyst telephone interview expect washington enact federally fund public infrastructure package next two years put stress state budget management address defer maintenance inadequate capacity public infrastructure depend heavily state local government solutions report say without possible bump growth federal infrastructure package project gdp growth 2017 low 2.2 percent 2.3 percent report say anything do federal level would imply burden pick state local government level area infrastructure investment petek say report add u.s. mid-atlantic region new jersey new york pennsylvania slow grow economy compare regions real gdp growth region project 1.25 percent 2017 report say best perform region forecast current year economic growth forecast 2.88 percent mountain region arizona colorado idaho montana nevada new mexico utah wyoming overall regional economies growth rat expect peak 2018 gain ebb report data show best perform region forecast 2018 state west south central region texas oklahoma louisiana arkansas combine growth rate 3.36 percent follow closely mountain region 3.29 percent pacific region 2.93 percent medicaid pension cost create budget complications u.s. state report