duterte take clear lead philippine elections photo ibt andrew korybko duranmay 2016 filipinos choose next president monday prospect election anti-establishment candidate threaten geopolitical viability us pivot asia.the philippines vote next president monday whilst rest world pay little attention strategists washington worried.the electoral frontrunner rodrigo duterte eccentric no-nonsense former mayor southern island mindanao command trump-like popularity equally loyal follow shake philippine politics core past couple months defy establishment pundits trump wrongly predict campaign would fizzle course pass week.having totally underestimate dissatisfy filipinos status quo duterte rival miss chance outshine anti-system rhetoric race final days late instead also parallel happen trump desperate call coalitions deal stop him.should fail duterte win monday promise geopolitical revolution unlike anything philippines ever see history pivot asia philippinesthe us pivot asia announce then-secretary state hillary clinton fall 2011 unstated obvious goal contain china key strategy rebalancing pentagon call estimate 60 overseas force asia-pacific theatre major deployment require many base us currently region us therefore seek help loyal leader former philippines colony benigno aquino iii find way re-open base philippines popular pressure close 1990s.using china threat plausibly justifiable reason aware philippines people still resent former coloniser proud force us close philippines base end cold war us devise call enhance defence cooperation agreement edca allow rotational presence american troop least five separate base one locate strategic island palawan abut south china sea.although legally permanent officially control us wink-and-a-nod arrangement would reality allow us redeploy force philippines return philippines archipelago role us second unsinkable aircraft carrier alongside japan cold war.the china containment coalition pentagon plan use philippines maritime lynch china containment coalition ccc gather ally navies together deploy within provocative strike range china claim islands.the three members us-led quadrilateral security dialogue japan india australia would find way rotate military units throughout philippines islands well thereby form core ccc.to add regional element mix plan philippines vietnam contest china maritime claim intensify strategic cooperation point mutual defence treaty would draw vietnam network anti-china coalition build washington use defence tie vietnam philippines make members quadrilateral security dialogue de facto ally vietnam.altogether pentagon plan produce critical mass hostile state near china southern maritime border back us could quickly counter move beijing thereby contain east asian mainland.duterte revolutioneverything proceed accord plan duterte begin question enhance defence cooperation agreement run mate say duterte would honour agreement add would position strength .back october 2014 duterte go record say enhance defence cooperation agreement scrap allow us servicemen philippines avoid justice crimes committed.this pinpoint issue sensitive filipinos vivid memories us troop able escape punishment act gross misbehaviour whilst us military occupy base philippines public anger issue one key factor mobilise local opposition base explain many filipinos oppose return.since impossible imagine incident arise point inevitable situation occur fulfil duterte criterion scrap enhance defence cooperation agreement take together duterte assertion intend deal us position strength easy see might trigger process revoke agreement.no filipino politician previously speak us way moreover things say also suggest intention send strongly independent line.not surprisingly pentagon-affiliated publication start strip write us servicemen servicemen families publish scathing critique duterte last week excerpt filipinos set choose among five candidates may duterte incumbent mayor davao city say u.s. meddle affairs hold strong lead accord recent poll release sunday.duterte popular people sick tire old old say virginia bacay watson professor asia-pacific center security study honolulu kind fresh face fresh perspective compare elites run duterte present voters straight-talker part manila elite someone get things do even need bend rule include country foreign affairs feel american influence strong dependent u.s. intervention anything say babe romualdez opinion columnist philippine star newspaper interview candidates one-on-one platforms u.s. military relations china activist student young lawyer romualdez say get sense say things militants say romualdez interview front-runner candidate say really need americans deal chinese chinese want talk us alone become president go reach chinese talk alone without american intervention said.duterte publically oppose visit force agreement u.s. edca amendment claim 2013 reject request u.s. establish davao base operations drones.earlier year quote say although country bind edca reservations presence foreign troop add allow build structure clearly duterte sort leader pentagon envisage philippines become philippine president inevitably concern washington elaborate plan anti-chinese coalition region could scuttled.the new silk road pay pit stop philippinesworse still us duterte say philippines china could peaceful pragmatic relations engage bilateral dialogue dispute without meddle interference us.what would mean us philippines might become tacit chinese ally would completely upend regional strategic balance.that duterte actually call say would open talk beijing would even engage joint exploration south china sea seek develop decades-neglected infrastructure one promise economies asia duterte suggest would open invite china build railroad type connective project beijing become globally renowned would course mean replace us contractors traditionally heavily entrench philippines cheap possibly efficient chinese ones potentially cause us company lose billions dollars construction deals.joint maritime exploration infrastructure cooperation philippines china potential turn entire philippines archipelago late pit stop china new silk road present us big geopolitical setback since reunification crimea russia.concluding thoughtsthe entire future us pivot asia hang balance filipinos go poll shape pivotal election country history.while us ally politicians preach campaign anti-chinese fear monger war rodrigo duterte buck system preach benefit philippines could reap pragmatic policies.by question need enhance defence cooperation agreement subtly threaten subvert duterte make us enemy number one amongst politicians asia-pacific individual speak way unlike others come seem command high level genuine people support.if duterte succeed win presidency could represent paradigm shift philippine history region geopolitics result us lose second unsinkable aircraft carrier pivot asia ie plan contain china fail even properly get underway 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