low gas price president barack obama high approval rat key factor favor democrat hillary clinton win white house next week election accord model moody analytics accurately predict last nine u.s. presidential contest clinton forecast pick 332 electoral college vote 206 republican donald trump moody analytics predict tuesday final update model election day nov. 8. would match obama margin victory republican challenger mitt romney 2012. reuters-ipsos state nation project also predict clinton win 95 percent probability win least 278 electoral vote candidate need win least 270 electoral vote elect president moody analytics model base combination state-level economic condition political history correctly call outcome presidential election since republican ronald reagan unseat democrat jimmy carter 1980. rather focus individual candidates race model instead center whether current economic political condition favor incumbent party white house year factor point clinton become 45th u.s. president economic factor moody measure include two-year percentage change real personal income per household well house gasoline price among political factor weigh moody say important share vote one state go incumbent party previous election also take account voter fatigue incumbent president approval rat year obama enjoy high job approval rat since first year office 2009 gasoline price hold steady well-below-average level model suggest democrats win third straight presidential election moody say would mark first time since 1988 election republican george h.w bush one party three consecutive presidential contest moody warn however model take account individual characteristics specific candidates give unusual nature 2016 election cycle date possible voters react change economic political condition differently past election cycle place risk model outcome particularly state-by-state projections moody analytics economist dan white write report moody 's analytics election model predict clinton win