des moines iowa republican donald trump surprise defeat iowa hand u.s. senator ted cruz reflect shortcomings get-out-the-vote operations reliance celebrity status state voters prefer personal touch new york billionaire former tv reality star generate much enthusiasm anti-establishment message end muscle cruz traditional grind game saw late-deciding voters side u.s. senator marco rubio sign point trump victory first nominate contest race white house des moines register influential poll give trump lead weekend iowans go caucus monday loss large margin raise question trump ability perform well vote contest poll prior monday trump repeatedly boast would easily win iowa front runner national poll since last summer sense victory trump mock cruz grind game hours voters go caucus sit hear great grind game get people pour bus truck trump say campaign rally spend money special interest country want person go spend least amount get best result trump rely iowa republican party chairman jeff kaufmann tell reuters stealth grind effort though specifics trump plan turn supporters monday questionable instead aggressively try convert republicans cause cruz trump rely mostly sign supporters among attend rally challenge trump face try persuade people many never participate caucus show tana goertz trump iowa campaign chair frequently introductory speaker trump events would encourage attendees make sure know go caucus leaflets pass reassure voters ballot secret caucus take less hour new lot people support say david mcneer newton iowa steer precinct overwhelmingly vote trump may end come like think go come out trump bombastic style flair dramatic may end help much would hop cruz rubio go traditional route talk small group people pizza parlors hotel conference room trump would make dramatic entrance private jet emblazon name tear rival rally attend thousands make pander comment like want buy farm iowa hop pregnant daughter would deliver baby state small events gary updegraff enthusiastic trump backer precinct chairman des moines say believe trump would adjust style smart man go analyze people talk family probably think genuineness donald trump need come little bite updegraff say trump take initial step direction final days caucus appear evangelical leader jerry falwell jr. ask trump friendly question play candidate contributions charitable cause point serve cheeseburgers caviar plane least supporters think trump might perform good participate fox news debate last week instead boycott opposition anchor megyn kelly fox news release felt bite tone think lot things catch last couple weeks say trump supporter brett ridge des moines speak shortly trump concession speech come debate last week trump note concession speech argue would never well state iowa love trump say defeat special think might come back buy farm additional report ginger gibson edit paul thomasch ross colvin sap sponsor coverage independently produce staff reuters news agency trump 's defeat raise question jetsetting campaign