berlin near end recent campaign speech northern germany chancellor angela merkel turn europe refugee crisis 2015 offer audience comfort dual message germans proud warm welcome give hundreds thousands asylum seekers many flee war persecution middle east tell audience 1,000 gather fish village steinhude shift gear happen 2015 must happen phrase use repeatedly market square across germany campaign fourth term federal election sept. 24 widely expect win nl5n1lq0h1 two years since open germany border asylum seekers avert say loom humanitarian disaster saw popularity slide result merkel climb way deep hole political career many factor behind comeback important skill spin narrative refugee crisis many germans support whether cheer condemn action 2015. merkel run policy open border fit perfectly mood country say robin alexander author best-selling book german government handle refugee crisis many people like image germany model humanitarian virtue time know country could continue welcome refugees like set feel merkel appeal end 2015 890,000 asylum seekers enter germany many without proper identity check overwhelm local communities merkel action divide europe lead surge anti-immigrant sentiment hard-right alternative germany afd party seem sure enter parliament first time year decision follow series small-scale attack germany islamist militants popularity rat plunge 30 point 45 percent face question whether would run chancellor yet today 63 percent germans say good job accord bertelsmann foundation survey week 59 percent believe country right track long difficult road back say one top aid get point refugee issue long negative merkel election campaign merkel help external events britain vote brexit last year donald trump election victory 2016 u.s. presidential election reinforce appeal guarantor stability decision macedonia early 2016 shut border greece stem flow refugees ease pressure germany country suffer large-scale islamist attack event might trigger voter backlash merkel knack understand germans tick also crucial many public appearances confront anti-immigration protesters try drown speeches whistle chant merkel must go steinhude woman hold sign show merkel diamond-shaped hand pose german flag blood-spattered bullet hole middle offer terror death chaos sign read dozen protesters dwarf supporters applaud message sure another way handle refugee crisis refugees go somewhere say willi kordes 70 run sewage treatment firm nearby vlotho trust anyone good work favor election fact many germany establish party include centre-left social democrats spd lead main challenger martin schulz back open-door policy afd run racially-tinged campaign put voters come 2016 highs poll one mainstream party offer hardline alternative christian social union csu bavarian sister party merkel christian democratic union cdu vote csu akin vote merkel crucial factor behind merkel rebound decline asylum seekers enter germany 280,000 arrive 2016 another drop likely year merkel take credit point deal broke european union turkey ankara cut number migrants cross europe via territory critics say close balkan border merkel publicly oppose real driver see parallel behavior euro zone financial crisis european central bank president mario draghi pledge whatever take keep currency bloc together allow stick hard line towards euro state greece without fear consequences refugee crisis countries like macedonia turkey hungary shut rout refugees use do merkel dirty work allow maintain image care leader help people flee war approach help merkel extend control political centre right-wing voters may flee afd poll suggest young urban voters traditionally lean leave could fill gap germany economy strong enough absorb influx refugees without big crack emerge society reaction nazi past germany emerge open tolerant country many assume crisis hit survey publish month rank top fear germans put terrorism top separate poll bild newspaper show see curb immigration priority germans astonishingly global liberal open world say menno smid head infas institute apply social sciences release survey last month show broad acceptance refugees germany winners globalization economic factor lead trump simply exist merkel refugees german leader emerge political aby