new york raucous passionate unpredictable 2016 u.s. presidential election track notch another distinction wagered-upon political event ever many opinion poll show tight race one day tuesday election record number bettors pour millions online platforms ireland iowa hope capture financial windfall victory democrat hillary clinton republican donald trump uk-based internet bet exchange betfair say sunday next president market set become trade ever see expect surpass even brexit contentious uk referendum leave european union sunday roughly 130 million trade become next u.s. president compare 159 million brexit referendum betfair spokeswoman naomi totten say amount bet far 2016 contest dwarf roughly 50 million lay 2012 race think raw brexit vote people mind convince yet do deal totten say poll lead britain june 23 referendum predict britons would choose remain eu instead vote leave 52 percent 48 percent margin betfair next president market far large 70 market site relate u.s. election friday 140 million put play market range win popular vote many state party carry ireland paddy power merge betfair early year u.s. presidential election definitely course big political event say spokesman féilim mac iomaire site 4.38 million bet race far paddy power sport events remain site bread butter politics niche market mac iomaire say nonetheless expect 2016 race among top 10-most-traded events site even people knowledge politics know trump say mac iomaire say explain runaway popularity u.s. election bet market trump huge celebrity ladbrokes uk-based gamble company say million pound little million bet 2016 presidential election since market race open four years ago ladbrokes spokesman say amount least double amount wager 2012 election three sit report 83 percent probability clinton victory tuesday probability shoot percentage point sunday fbi stand early recommendation criminal charge warrant clinton use private email server vast majority big-dollar political bet occur outside america wager elections unite state limit law relatively small trade platforms connect universities use data market academic research still sit abuzz activity election near albeit small amount predictit launch 2014 jointly run victoria university wellington new zealand washington d.c.-based political consult firm aristotle international inc five most-active market relate presidential election predictit legally permit disclose amount money trade top three market reach maximum number participants trade old iowa electronic market launch university iowa 1988 also brisk although spokeswoman say could say 2016 see substantially volume 2012 president barack obama re-election republican mitt romney late reuters/ipsos poll show clinton percentage point lead trump national survey 44 percent 39 percent race swing state florida north carolina shift clinton control close call predictit market give clinton 81 percent probability win white house iem winner take market show 71 percent chance betfair say friday trump emerge clear favorite among one group players particular brexit backers two-thirds customers support brexit outcome also back trump betfair paul krishnamurty professional gambler 15 years work analyst betfair columnist politico one tell reuters stand lose 28,000 trump win tuesday krishnamurty say earn roughly half million dollars bet career lay money several election-related market year take win position trump selection indiana governor mike pence run mate bet jeb bush republican nominate contest say believe clinton would likely win north carolina florida trump victory unlikely personally believe win landslide krishnamurty say bet sit see record wager u.s. presidential election