new york reuters/ipsos track poll release friday put democratic presidential nominee hillary clinton percentage point republican rival donald trump ahead tuesday u.s. presidential election major bookmakers online exchange much confident clinton victory put probability sunday candidate win election predictit online trade platform jointly run victoria university wellington new zealand washington d.c.-based political consult firm aristotle international inc clinton 81 percent trump 20 percent iowa electronic market winner-takes-all trade market clinton 71 percent trump 28 percent uk-based betfair internet bet exchange clinton 83 percent trump 18 percent uk-based ladbrokes online bet platform clinton 83 percent trump 22 percent ireland paddy power bookmaker clinton 83 percent trump 18 percent probabilities roughly 6:30 p.m. est 2330 gmt sunday factbox bookies trade exchange put trump clinton odds