text: is it true that the weather-man is only correct 13% of the time?   the weather report doesn't tell you it is going to rain or snow, only that there is a likelyhood of that happening based on prior experience.  if you were going to role a die and someone told you there was a 50% chance of getting an even number, it doesn't make him wrong if you get an odd one.  even if you get three odds in a row, he is still correct, it just didn't help you very much.  that is the limitation of a weather forecast.  it never says "it is going to rain", but that "rain is likely."