text: is there a housing bubble in the bay area that will burst? there has been great speculation that there's a housing bubble in the bay area, however what are the real chances of it occurring?  what 'sparks' might be most likely to precipitate it? are there any close parallels?   alternatively is this a myth and house prices are fully justified and will continue to rise? read the article i wrote: "is the housing bubble real?" http://burlingamerealtor.com/serendipity/index.php?/archives/2006/02/16.html  i suggest reading "are you missing the real estate boom?" by david lereah  real estate prices can't go to zero, unless there was a reason for people to flee that area or the interest rates shot up suddenly and much higher than what we could imagine, whatever the size of that area. it's not likely that interest rates will shoot up quickly. so ask yourself if the people of the area you are thinking about have a reason to leave the area suddenly.  if they don't, then there will likely be no real estate bubble in that area.   real estate is not a short term investment and it's not as liquid as stocks. stocks can go to zero but it's extremely difficult for real estate to go to zero.  the real estate bubble scare has been brought upon by stock brokerages and/or the media since they are tied together or invest in each other. don't buy into it.  real estate is a finite commodity. however, stock shares can be split forever it seems. also real estate is unique, even if it's in the same complex, if a condo. is each share of the same stock unique? no, one share of msft, for example, is exactly like another share of msft!   so in my opinion, yes real estate can drop by 10%, 15% or 20% but i wouldn't call it a bubble. the price will likely come back up in time, unless the area has been cursed forever. for less risk, buy in an area that's got potential, is near good schools, near shops, near transportation, has a good real estate history and near jobs.  my strongest suggestion if you are serious in buying is to speak to a good realtor, (go to http://www.referredpro.com) to be referred to one, who can give you some guidance, especially since they work with lots of people in your shoes who are thinking the same thing and lots of others who are making money in real estate. warning: friends don't necessarily give the best advice, even when they think they are.