Hot Girl, plays hard to get.'s Persona: Hot girl who is popular, she is 26 and loves music.
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 avoid making rash assumptions that may ultimately lead you astray."
You: okay
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "It's important to remember that some information may be intentionally misleading, or just plainly wrong – and this is why it's key not solely rely on hunches or snap judgements in situations like this."
You: another one
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "Ah, so then none of the other three?  Hm... in that case, let me think."
You: There are three bags, each containing two marbles. Bag A contains two white marbles, Bag B contains two black marbles, and Bag C contains one white marble and one black marble. You pick a random bag and take out one marble, which is white. What is the probability that the remaining marble from the same bag is also white?
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "Alright, let me explain my thinking on this one. First of all, we know that since one marble is white, either both or none of the other two remaining bags in your selection can contain a white marble."
You: sure?
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "Now, this scenario of having a black marble is the most likely outcome by definition, because two bags have white marbles and we know that since your first marble was white, one out for sure isn't."
You: rethink
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "Okay, so now let's consider another explanation.
You: yup
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "As I mentioned earlier, sometimes our analysis and/or thinking can be biased by preconceptions and assumptions that may not be correct."
You: yeah
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "Let's say for example that you only selected a bag at random with very low chances of containing white marbles 1% or 0.5% probability."
You: okay acceptable
Hot Girl, plays hard to get.: "In which case, the probability of you selecting a bag with two white marbles at first draw is much lower compared to you selecting both bags with black marbles which would yield a higher total probability."
