title: Rokeby Venus

text: Intertwining pink silk ribbons are draped over the mirror and curl over its frame. The ribbon's function has been the subject of much debate by art historians; suggestions include an allusion to the fetters used by Cupid to bind lovers, that it was used to hang the mirror, and that it was used to blindfold Venus moments before. The critic Julián Gallego found Cupid's facial expression to be so melancholy that he interprets the ribbons as fetters binding the god to the image of Beauty, and gave the painting the title "Amor conquered by Beauty".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The folds of the bed sheets echo the goddess's physical form, and are rendered to emphasise the sweeping curves of her body. The composition mainly uses shades of red, white, and grey, which are used even in Venus's skin; although the effect of this simple colour scheme has been much praised, recent technical analysis has shown that the grey sheet was originally a "deep mauve", that has now faded. The luminescent colours used in Venus's skin, applied with "smooth, creamy, blended handling", contrast with the dark greys and black of the silk she is lying on, and with the brown of the wall behind her face.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The "Rokeby Venus" is the only surviving nude by Velázquez, but three others by the artist are recorded in 17th-century Spanish inventories. Two were mentioned in the Royal collection, but may have been lost in the 1734 fire that destroyed the main Royal Palace of Madrid. A further one was recorded in the collection of Domingo Guerra Coronel. These records mention "a reclining Venus", "Venus and Adonis", and a "Psyche and Cupid".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Although the work is widely thought to have been painted from life, the identity of the model is subject to much speculation. In contemporary Spain it was acceptable for artists to employ male nude models for studies; however, the use of female nude models was frowned upon. The painting is believed to have been executed during one of Velázquez's visits to Rome, and Prater has observed that in Rome the artist "did indeed lead a life of considerable personal liberty that would have been consistent with the notion of using a live nude female model". It has been claimed that the painting depicts a mistress Velázquez is known to have had while in Italy, who is supposed to have borne his child. Others have claimed that the model is the same as in "Coronation of the Virgin" and "Las Hilanderas", both in the Museo del Prado, and other works.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The figures of both Venus and Cupid were significantly altered during the painting process, the result of the artist's corrections to the contours as initially painted. Pentimenti can be seen in Venus's upraised arm, in the position of her left shoulder, and on her head. Infra-red reveals that she was originally shown more upright with her head turned to the left. An area on the left of the painting, extending from Venus's left foot to the left leg and foot of Cupid, is apparently unfinished, but this feature is seen in many other works by Velázquez and was probably deliberate. The painting was given a major cleaning and restoration in 1965–66, which showed it to be in good condition, and with very little paint added later by other artists, contrary to what some earlier writers had asserted.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Paintings of nudes and of Venus by Italian, and especially Venetian, artists were influences on Velázquez. However, Velázquez's version is, according to the art historian Andreas Prater, "a highly independent visual concept that has many precursors, but no direct model; scholars have sought them in vain". Forerunners include Titian's various depictions of Venus, such as "Venus and Cupid with a Partridge", "Venus and Cupid with an Organist" and notably the "Venus of Urbino"; Palma il Vecchio's "Reclining Nude"; and Giorgione's "Sleeping Venus", all of which show the deity reclining on luxurious textiles, although in landscape settings in the latter two works. The use of a centrally placed mirror was inspired by the painters of the Italian High Renaissance, including Titian, Girolamo Savoldo and Lorenzo Lotto, who used mirrors as an active protagonist, as opposed to more than merely a prop or accessory in the pictorial space. Both Titian and Peter Paul Rubens had already painted Venus looking into a mirror, and as both had had close ties to the Spanish court, their examples would have been familiar to Velázquez. However, "this girl with her small waist and jutting hip, does not resemble the fuller more rounded Italian nudes inspired by ancient sculpture".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: One innovation of the "Rokeby Venus", when compared to other large single nude paintings, lies in the fact that Velázquez depicts a back view of its subject who is turned away from the viewer. There were precedents for this in prints by Giulio Campagnola, Agostino Veneziano, Hans Sebald Beham and Theodor de Bry, as well as classical sculptures known to Velázquez, of which casts were made for Madrid. These were the "Sleeping Ariadne" now in the Pitti Palace, but then in Rome, of which Velázquez ordered a cast for the Royal collection in 1650–51, and the Borghese Hermaphroditus, a sleeping hermaphrodite (picture to the right above), now in the Louvre, of which a cast was sent to Madrid, and which also emphasises the curve from hip to waist. However, the combination of elements in Velázquez's composition was original.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The "Rokeby Venus" may have been intended as a pendant to a sixteenth-century Venetian painting of a recumbent Venus (which seems to have begun life as a Danaë) in a landscape, in the same pose, but seen from the front. The two were certainly hung together for many years in Spain when in the collection of Gaspar Méndez de Haro, 7th Marquis of Carpio (1629–87); at what point they were initially paired is uncertain.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The portrayal of nudes was officially discouraged in 17th-century Spain. Works could be seized or repainting demanded by the Inquisition, and artists who painted licentious or immoral works were often excommunicated, fined, or banished from Spain for a year. However, within intellectual and aristocratic circles, the aims of art were believed to supersede questions of morality, and there were many, generally mythological, nudes in private collections.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Velázquez's patron, the art-loving King Philip IV, held a number of nudes by Titian and Rubens, and Velázquez, as the king's painter, need not have feared painting such a picture. Leading collectors, including the King, tended to keep nudes, many mythological, in relatively private rooms; in Phillip's case "the room where His Majesty retires after eating", which contained the Titian "poesies" he had inherited from Phillip II, and the Rubens he had commissioned himself. The "Venus" would be in such a room while in the collections of both Haro and Godoy. The court of Philip IV greatly "appreciated painting in general, and the nude in particular, but ... at the same time, exerted unparalleled pressure on artists to avoid the depiction of the naked human body."


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The contemporary Spanish attitude toward paintings of nudes was unique in Europe. Although such works were appreciated by some connoisseurs and intellectuals within Spain, they were generally treated with suspicion. Low necklines were commonly worn by women during the period, but according to the art historian Zahira Veliz, "the codes of pictorial decorum would not easily permit a known lady to be painted in this way". For Spaniards of the 17th century, the issue of the nude in art was tied up with concepts of morality, power, and aesthetics. This attitude is reflected in the literature of the Spanish Golden Age, in works such as Lope de Vega's play "La quinta de Florencia", which features an aristocrat who commits rape after viewing a scantily clad figure in a mythological painting by Michelangelo.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: In 1632, an anonymous pamphlet—attributed to the Portuguese Francisco de Braganza—was published with the title "A copy of the opinions and censorship by the most revered fathers, masters and senior professors of the distinguished universities of Salamanca and Alcalá, and other scholars on the abuse of lascivious and indecent figures and paintings, which are mortal sin to be painted, carved and displayed where they can be seen". The court was able to exert counter-pressure, and a piece by the famous poet and preacher Fray Hortensio Félix Paravicino, which proposed the destruction of all paintings of the nude, and was written to be included in the pamphlet, was never published. Paravicino was a connoisseur of painting, and therefore believed in its power: "the finest paintings are the greatest threat: burn the best of them". As his title shows, Braganza merely argued that such works should be kept from the view of a wider public, as was in fact mostly the practice in Spain.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: In contrast, French art of the period often depicted women with low necklines and slender corsets; however, the mutilation by the French royal family of the Correggio depiction of Leda and the Swan and their apparent destruction of the famous Leonardo da Vinci and Michelangelo paintings of the same subject, show that nudity could be controversial in France also. In northern Europe it was seen as acceptable to portray artfully draped nudes. Examples include Rubens's "Minerva Victrix", of 1622–25, which shows Marie de' Medici with an uncovered breast, and Anthony van Dyck's 1620 painting, "The Duke and Duchess of Buckingham as Venus and Adonis".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: In 17th-century Spanish art, even in the depiction of sibyls, nymphs, and goddesses, the female form was always chastely covered. No painting from the 1630s or 1640s, whether in the genre, portrait, or history format, shows a Spanish female with her breasts exposed; even uncovered arms were only rarely shown. In 1997, the art historian Peter Cherry suggested that Velázquez sought to overcome the contemporary requirement for modesty by portraying Venus from the back. Even in the mid-18th century, an English artist who made a drawing of the Venus when it was in the collection of the Dukes of Alba noted it was "not hung up, owing to the subject".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Another attitude to the issue was shown by Morritt, who wrote to Sir Walter Scott of his "fine painting of Venus' backside", which he hung above his main fireplace, so that "the ladies may avert their downcast eyes without difficulty and connoisseurs steal a glance without drawing the said posterior into the company".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The "Rokeby Venus" was long held to be one of Velázquez's final works. In 1951, it was found recorded in an inventory of 1 June 1651 from the collection of Gaspar Méndez de Haro, 7th Marquis of Carpio, a close associate of Philip IV of Spain. Haro was the great-nephew of Velázquez's first patron, the Count-Duke of Olivares, and a notorious libertine. According to the art historian Dawson Carr, Haro "loved paintings almost as much as he loved women", and "even his panegyrists lamented his excessive taste for lower-class women during his youth". For these reasons it seemed likely that he would have commissioned the painting. However, in 2001 the art historian Ángel Aterido discovered that the painting had first belonged to the Madrid art dealer and painter Domingo Guerra Coronel, and was sold to Haro in 1652 following Coronel's death the previous year. Coronel's ownership of the painting raises a number of questions: how and when it came into Coronel's possession, and why Velázquez's name was omitted from Coronel's inventory. The art critic Javier Portús has suggested that the omission may have been due to the painting's portrayal of a female nude, "a type of work which was carefully supervised and whose dissemination was considered problematic".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: These revelations make the painting difficult to date. Velázquez's painting technique offers no assistance, although its strong emphasis on colour and tone suggest that the work dates from his mature period. The best estimates of its origin put its completion in the late 1640s or early 1650s, either in Spain or during Velázquez's last visit to Italy. If this is the case, then the breadth of handling and the dissolution of form can be seen to mark the beginning of the artist's final period. The conscientious modelling and strong tonal contrasts of his earlier work are here replaced by a restraint and subtlety which would culminate in his late masterpiece, "Las Meninas".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The painting passed from Haro into the collection of his daughter Catalina de Haro y Guzmán, the eighth Marchioness of Carpio, and her husband, Francisco Álvarez de Toledo, the tenth Duke of Alba. In 1802, Charles IV of Spain ordered the family to sell the painting (with other works) to Manuel de Godoy, his favourite and chief minister. He hung it alongside two masterpieces by Francisco Goya that he may have commissioned himself, "The Nude Maja" and "The Clothed Maja". These bear obvious compositional similarities with Velázquez's "Venus", although unlike Velázquez, Goya clearly painted his nude in a calculated attempt to provoke shame and disgust in the relatively unenlightened climate of 18th-century Spain.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: "Venus" was brought to England in 1813, where it was purchased by John Morritt for £500 (£  in 2022), and on the advice of his friend Sir Thomas Lawrence. Morritt hung it in his house at Rokeby Park, Yorkshire—thus the painting's popular name. In 1906, the painting was acquired for the National Gallery by the newly created National Art Collections Fund, its first campaigning triumph. King Edward VII greatly admired the painting, and anonymously provided £8,000 (£  in 2022) towards its purchase, and became Patron of the Fund thereafter.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: In part because he was overlooked until the mid-19th century, Velázquez found no followers and was not widely imitated. In particular, his visual and structural innovations in this portrayal of Venus were not developed by other artists until recently, largely owing to the censorship of the work. The painting remained in a series of private rooms in private collections until it was exhibited in 1857 at the Manchester Art Treasures Exhibition, along with 25 other paintings at least claimed to be by Velázquez; it was here that it became known as the "Rokeby Venus". It does not appear to have been copied by other artists, engraved or otherwise reproduced, until this period. In 1890 it was exhibited in the Royal Academy in London, and in 1905 at Messrs. Agnews, the dealers who had bought it from Morritt. From 1906 it was highly visible in the National Gallery and became well-known globally through reproductions. The general influence of the painting was therefore long delayed, although individual artists would have been able to see it on occasion throughout its history.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Velázquez's portrait is a staging of a private moment of intimacy and a dramatic departure from the classical depictions of sleep and intimacy found in works from antiquity and Venetian art that portray Venus. However, the simplicity with which Velázquez displays the female nude—without jewellery or any of the goddess's usual accessories—was echoed in later nude studies by Ingres, Manet, and Baudry, among others. In addition, Velázquez's depiction of Venus as a reclining nude viewed from the rear was a rarity before that time, although the pose has been painted by many later artists. Manet, in his stark female portrayal "Olympia", paraphrased the "Rokeby Venus" in pose and by suggesting the persona of a real woman rather than an ethereal goddess. "Olympia" shocked the Parisian art world when it was first exhibited in 1863.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: On 10 March 1914, the suffragette Mary Richardson walked into the National Gallery and attacked Velázquez's canvas with a meat cleaver. Her action was ostensibly provoked by the arrest of fellow suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst the previous day, although there had been earlier warnings of a planned suffragette attack on the collection. Richardson left seven slashes on the painting, particularly causing damage to the area between the figure's shoulders. However, all were successfully repaired by the National Gallery's chief restorer Helmut Ruhemann.


title: Rokeby Venus

text: Richardson was sentenced to six months' imprisonment, the maximum allowed for destruction of an artwork. In a statement to the Women's Social and Political Union shortly afterwards, Richardson explained, "I have tried to destroy the picture of the most beautiful woman in mythological history as a protest against the Government for destroying Mrs. Pankhurst, who is the most beautiful character in modern history." She added in a 1952 interview that she did not like "the way men visitors gaped at it all day long".


title: Rokeby Venus

text: The feminist writer Lynda Nead observed, "The incident has come to symbolize a particular perception of feminist attitudes towards the female nude; in a sense, it has come to represent a specific stereotypical image of feminism more generally." Contemporary reports of the incident reveal that the picture was not widely seen as mere artwork. Journalists tended to assess the attack in terms of a murder (Richardson was nicknamed "Slasher Mary"), and used words that conjured wounds inflicted on an actual female body, rather than on a pictorial representation of a female body. "The Times" described a "cruel wound in the neck", as well as incisions to the shoulders and back.


title: Tané McClure

text: Tané M. McClure (born June 8, 1958), sometimes credited as Tahnee Cain and Tané Cain, is an American former actress and singer.


title: Tané McClure

text: McClure was born in Los Angeles County, California. She is the daughter of actor Doug McClure and Faye Brash, the first of his five wives. She has a half-sister, Valerie, from her father's marriage to his fourth wife, Diane Soldani, in the 1970s.


title: Tané McClure

text: McClure made a cameo appearance on her father's Western television series "The Virginian" at age five.


title: Tané McClure

text: Raised in Hawaii, McClure moved to Northern California and, at age 17, began singing in a Latin jazz band called Sweet Honesty.


title: Tané McClure

text: She recorded her first single, "Redwood City", in the late 1970s, and soon thereafter met The Babys and Journey keyboardist Jonathan Cain, whom she married.


title: Tané McClure

text: Moving with him to Los Angeles, she landed a record deal in 1982 and released a self-titled (using her married name Tané Cain) album on RCA Records. A "Billboard" review of the album described her as "an artist to watch" and remarked that she "looks incredibly beautiful on the LP cover. Then you put it on and find out that she can sing just as well."


title: Tané McClure

text: Allmusic's Alex Henderson wrote that "the material – most of it sleek, commercial pop/rock that was co-produced and co-written by Jonathan Cain and has a Pat Benatar-ish quality – is generally excellent."


title: Tané McClure

text: McClure disliked comparisons to Benatar, preferring to identify herself with her idol Grace Slick. The album's first single, "Danger Zone", failed to chart, but the follow-up, "Holdin' On", peaked at number 37 on the "Billboard" Hot 100.


title: Tané McClure

text: The album did not sell as well as the label had hoped (peaking at number 121 on the "Billboard" album chart), and she was dropped, never to release another album. She did, however, contribute three songs to soundtrack for "The Terminator" in 1984. She also recorded demos for a second album in 1985, which were eventually leaked several years later to multiple AOR blogspots.


title: Tané McClure

text: During the latter half of the 1980s and through the 1990s, McClure starred in more than two dozen sexploitation films. She also played the mother of Elle Woods (Reese Witherspoon) in "Legally Blonde" (2001) and its sequel, "" (2003).


title: LockPickingLawyer

text: The LockPickingLawyer is a YouTuber known for picking various locks on camera on his channel of the same name. As of July 2022, the channel has over four million subscribers.


title: LockPickingLawyer

text: The channel was started in 2015. In 2018, the channel attracted attention after posting a video of a bicycle lock being cut open in two seconds. Other videos include picking a car lock, though it is noted that the methods used are not capable of starting the car. The channel also accepts challenges sent in by viewers.


title: LockPickingLawyer

text: The LockPickingLawyer was a lawyer based in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, but has since retired from law to focus on security. He works with lock manufacturers to improve the security of their devices. He also sells the tools he uses.


The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is part of a global thermohaline circulation in the oceans and is the zonally integrated component of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters. These "limbs" are linked by regions of overturning in the Nordic and Labrador Seas and the Southern Ocean, although the extent of overturning in the Labrador Sea is disputed. The AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system, and is a result of both atmospheric and thermohaline drivers.


title: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

text: Climate change has the potential to weaken the AMOC through increases in ocean heat content and elevated freshwater flows from the melting ice sheets. Oceanographic reconstructions generally suggest that the AMOC is already weaker than it was before the Industrial Revolution, although there is a robust debate over the role of climate change versus the circulation's century-scale and millennial-scale variability. Climate models consistently project that the AMOC would weaken further over the 21st century, which would affect average temperature over areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift, as well as accelerate sea level rise around North America and reduce primary production in the North Atlantic.


text: Severe weakening of the AMOC has the potential to cause an outright collapse of the circulation, which would not be easily reversible and thus constitute one of the tipping points in the climate system. A shutdown would have far greater impacts than a slowdown on both the marine and some terrestrial ecosystems: it would lower the average temperature and precipitation in Europe, slashing the region's agricultural output, and may have a substantial effect on extreme weather events. Earth system models used in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project indicate that shutdown is only likely after high levels of warming are sustained well after 2100, but they have been criticized by some researchers for what they saw as excessive stability, and a number of lower-complexity studies argue that a collapse can happen considerably earlier. On the other hand, paleoceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may be even more stable than what is assumed by most models.


text: Thermohaline circulation is a pattern of water flow through the world's oceans. Warm water flows along the surface until it reaches one of a few special spots near Greenland or Antarctica. There, the water sinks, and then crawls across the bottom of the ocean, miles/kilometers deep, over hundreds of years, gradually rising in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Northward surface flow transports a substantial amount of heat energy from the tropics and Southern Hemisphere toward the North Atlantic, where the heat is lost to the atmosphere due to the strong temperature gradient. Upon losing its heat, the water becomes denser and sinks. This densification links the warm, surface limb with the cold, deep return limb at regions of convection in the Nordic and Labrador Seas. The limbs are also linked in regions of upwelling, where a divergence of surface waters causes Ekman suction and an upward flux of deep water.


text: AMOC consists of upper and lower cells. The upper cell consists of northward surface flow as well as southward return flow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The lower cell represents northward flow of dense Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) – this bathes the abyssal ocean.


text: AMOC exerts a major control on North Atlantic sea level, particularly along the Northeast Coast of North America. Exceptional AMOC weakening during the winter of 2009–10 has been implicated in a damaging 13 cm sea level rise along the New York coastline.


text: There may be two stable states of the AMOC: a strong circulation (as seen over recent millennia) and a weak circulation mode, as suggested by atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models and Earth systems models of intermediate complexity. A number of Earth system models do not identify this bistability, however.


text: The net northward heat transport in the Atlantic is unique among global oceans, and is responsible for the relative warmth of the Northern Hemisphere. AMOC carries up to 25% of the northward global atmosphere-ocean heat transport in the northern hemisphere. This is generally thought to ameliorate the climate of Northwest Europe, although this effect is the subject of debate.


text: As well as acting as a heat pump and high-latitude heat sink, AMOC is the largest carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere, sequestering approximately C/year. This sequestration has significant implications for evolution of anthropogenic global warming – especially with respect to the recent and projected future decline in AMOC vigor.


text: Heat is transported from the equator polewards mostly by the atmosphere but also by ocean currents, with warm water near the surface and cold water at deeper levels. The best known segment of this circulation is the Gulf Stream, a wind-driven gyre, which transports warm water from the Caribbean northwards. A northwards branch of the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Drift, is part of the thermohaline circulation (THC), transporting warmth further north to the North Atlantic, where its effect in warming the atmosphere contributes to warming Europe.


text: The evaporation of ocean water in the North Atlantic increases the salinity of the water as well as cooling it, both actions increasing the density of water at the surface. Formation of sea ice further increases the salinity and density, because salt is ejected into the ocean when sea ice forms. This dense water then sinks and the circulation stream continues in a southerly direction. However, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is driven by ocean temperature and salinity differences. But freshwater decreases ocean water salinity, and through this process prevents colder waters sinking. This mechanism possibly caused the cold ocean surface temperature anomaly currently observed near Greenland (Cold blob (North Atlantic)).


text: Global warming could lead to an increase in freshwater in the northern oceans, by melting glaciers in Greenland, and by increasing precipitation, especially through Siberian rivers.


text: Studies of the Florida Current suggest that the Gulf Stream weakens with cooling, being weakest (by ~10%) during the Little Ice Age.


text: Low air temperatures at high latitudes cause substantial sea-air heat flux, driving a density increase and convection in the water column. Open ocean convection occurs in deep plumes and is particularly strong in winter when the sea-air temperature difference is largest. Of the 6 sverdrup (Sv) of dense water that flows southward over the GSR (Greenland-Scotland Ridge), 3 Sv does so via the Denmark Strait forming Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW). 0.5-1 Sv flows over the Iceland-Faroe ridge and the remaining 2–2.5 Sv returns through the Faroe-Shetland Channel; these two flows form Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW). The majority of flow over the Faroe-Shetland ridge flows through the Faroe-Bank Channel and soon joins that which flowed over the Iceland-Faroe ridge, to flow southward at depth along the Eastern flank of the Reykjanes Ridge. As ISOW overflows the GSR (Greenland-Scotland Ridge), it turbulently entrains intermediate density waters such as Sub-Polar Mode water and Labrador Sea Water. This grouping of water-masses then moves geostrophically southward along the East flank of Reykjanes Ridge, through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone and then northward to join DSOW. These waters are sometimes referred to as Nordic Seas Overflow Water (NSOW). NSOW flows cyclonically following the surface route of the SPG (sub-polar gyre) around the Labrador Sea and further entrains Labrador Sea Water (LSW).


text: Convection is known to be suppressed at these high latitudes by sea-ice cover. Floating sea ice "caps" the surface, reducing the ability for heat to move from the sea to the air. This in turn reduces convection and deep return flow from the region. The summer Arctic sea ice cover has undergone dramatic retreat since satellite records began in 1979, amounting to a loss of almost 30% of the September ice cover in 39 years. Climate model simulations suggest that rapid and sustained September Arctic ice loss is likely in future 21st century climate projections.


text: Characteristically fresh LSW is formed at intermediate depths by deep convection in the central Labrador Sea, particularly during winter storms. This convection is not deep enough to penetrate into the NSOW layer which forms the deep waters of the Labrador Sea. LSW joins NSOW to move southward out of the Labrador Sea: while NSOW easily passes under the NAC at the North-West Corner, some LSW is retained. This diversion and retention by the SPG explains its presence and entrainment near the GSR (Greenland-Scotland Ridge) overflows. Most of the diverted LSW however splits off before the CGFZ (Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone) and remains in the western SPG. LSW production is highly dependent on sea-air heat flux and yearly production typically ranges from 3–9 Sv. ISOW is produced in proportion to the density gradient across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge and as such is sensitive to LSW production which affects the downstream density More indirectly, increased LSW production is associated with a strengthened SPG and hypothesized to be anti-correlated with ISOW This interplay confounds any simple extension of a reduction in individual overflow waters to a reduction in AMOC. LSW production is understood to have been minimal prior to the 8.2 ka event, with the SPG thought to have existed before in a weakened, non-convective state. There is debate about the extent to which convection in the Labrador Sea plays a role in AMOC circulation, particularly in the connection between Labrador sea variability and AMOC variability. Observational studies have been inconclusive about whether this connection exists. New observations with the OSNAP array show little contribution from the Labrador Sea to overturning, and hydrographic observations from ships dating back to 1990 show similar results. Nevertheless, older estimates of LSW formation using different techniques suggest larger overturning.


text: For reasons of conservation of mass, the global ocean system must upwell an equal volume of water to that downwelled. Upwelling in the Atlantic itself occurs mostly due to coastal and equatorial upwelling mechanisms.


text: Coastal upwelling occurs as a result of Ekman transport along the interface between land and a wind-driven current. In the Atlantic, this particularly occurs around the Canary Current and Benguela Current. Upwelling in these two regions has been modelled to be in antiphase, an effect known as "upwelling see-saw".


text: Equatorial upwelling generally occurs due to atmospheric forcing and divergence due to the opposing direction of the Coriolis force either side of the equator. The Atlantic features more complex mechanisms such as migration of the thermocline, particularly in the Eastern Atlantic.


text: North Atlantic Deep Water is primarily upwelled at the southern end of the Atlantic transect, in the Southern Ocean. This upwelling comprises the majority of upwelling normally associated with AMOC, and links it with the global circulation. On a global scale, observations suggest 80% of deepwater upwells in the Southern Ocean.


text: This upwelling supplies large quantities of nutrients to the surface, which supports biological activity. Surface supply of nutrients is critical to the ocean's functioning as a carbon sink on long timescales. Furthermore, upwelled water has low concentrations of dissolved carbon, as the water is typically 1000 years old and has not been sensitive to anthropogenic increases in the atmosphere. Because of its low carbon concentration, this upwelling functions as a carbon sink. Variability in the carbon sink over the observational period has been closely studied and debated. The size of the sink is understood to have decreased until 2002, and then increased until 2012.


text: After upwelling, the water is understood to take one of two pathways: water surfacing near to sea-ice generally forms dense bottomwater and is committed to AMOC's lower cell; water surfacing at lower latitudes moves further northward due to Ekman transport and is committed to the upper cell.


text: The slowdown or shutdown of the thermohaline circulation is a hypothesized effect of climate change on a major ocean circulation. The Gulf Stream is part of this circulation, and is part of the reason why northern Europe is warmer than it would normally be; Edinburgh has the same latitude as Moscow. The Thermohaline Circulation influences the climate all over the world. The impacts of the decline and potential shutdown of the AMOC could include losses in agricultural output, ecosystem changes, and the triggering of other climate tipping points. Other likely impacts of AMOC decline include reduced precipitation in mid-latitudes, changing patterns of strong precipitation in the tropics and Europe, and strengthening storms that follow the North Atlantic track. Finally, a decline would also be accompanied by strong sea level rise along the North American coast.


text: Atlantic overturning is not a static feature of global circulation, but rather a sensitive function of temperature and salinity distributions as well as atmospheric forcings. Paleoceanographic reconstructions of AMOC vigour and configuration have revealed significant variations over geologic time complementing variation observed on shorter scales.


text: Reconstructions of a "shutdown" or "Heinrich" mode of the North Atlantic have fuelled concerns about a future collapse of the overturning circulation due to global climate change. The physics of a shutdown would be underpinned by the Stommel Bifurcation, where increased freshwater forcing or warmer surface waters would lead to a sudden reduction in overturning from which the forcing must be substantially reduced before restart is possible. In 2022, a study suggested that the strongly increasing "memory" of the past multidecadal variations in the system's circulation could act as an early warning indicator of a tipping point.


text: An AMOC shutdown would be fuelled by two positive feedbacks, the accumulation of both freshwater and heat in areas of downwelling. AMOC exports freshwater from the North Atlantic, and a reduction in overturning would freshen waters and inhibit downwelling. Similar to its export of freshwater, AMOC also partitions heat in the deep-ocean in a global warming regime – it is possible that a weakened AMOC would lead to increasing global temperatures and further stratification and slowdown. However, this effect would be tempered by a concomitant reduction in warm water transport to the North Atlantic under a weakened AMOC, a negative feedback on the system. Moreover, a paleoceanographic reconstruction from 2022 found only a limited impact from massive freshwater forcing of the final Holocene deglaciation ~11,700–6,000 years ago, when the sea level rise amounted to around 50 metres. It suggested that most models overestimate the impact of freshwater forcing on AMOC.


text: To complicate the issue of positive and negative feedbacks on temperature and salinity, the wind-driven component of AMOC is still not fully constrained. A relatively larger role of atmospheric forcing would lead to less dependency on the thermohaline factors listed above, and would render AMOC less vulnerable to temperature and salinity changes under global warming.


text: As well as paleoceanographic reconstruction, the mechanism and likelihood of collapse has been investigated using climate models. Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) have historically predicted a modern AMOC to have multiple equilibria, characterised as warm, cold and shutdown modes. This is in contrast to more comprehensive models, which bias towards a stable AMOC characterised by a single equilibrium. However, doubt is cast upon this stability by a modelled northward freshwater flux which is at odds with observations. An unphysical northward flux in models acts as a negative feedback on overturning and falsely biases towards stability. On the other hand, it was also suggested that the stationary freshwater forcing used in the classic EMICs is too simplistic, and a 2022 study which modified a Stommel's Bifurcation EMIC to use more realistic transient freshwater flux found that this change delayed tipping behavior in the model by over 1000 years. The study suggested that this simulation is more consistent with the reconstructions of AMOC response to Meltwater pulse 1A, when a similarly long delay was observed.


text: Don Chambers from the University of South Florida College of Marine Science mentioned: "The major effect of a slowing AMOC is expected to be cooler winters and summers around the North Atlantic, and small regional increases in sea level on the North American coast." James Hansen and Makiko Sato stated:


text: A 2005 paper suggested that a severe AMOC slowdown would collapse North Atlantic plankton counts to less than half of their pre-disruption biomass due to the increased stratification and the severe drop in nutrient exchange amongst the ocean layers. In 2019, a study suggested that the observed ~10% decline in the phytoplankton productivity in the North Atlantic may provide evidence for this hypothesis.


text: Downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has been tied to extreme regional sea level rise.


text: A 2015 paper simulated global ocean changes under AMOC slowdown and collapse scenarios and found that it would greatly decrease dissolved oxygen content in the North Atlantic, even as it would slightly increase globally due to greater increases across the other oceans. In 2018, AMOC slowdown was also tied to increasing coastal deoxygenation. In 2020, it was linked to increasing salinity in the South Atlantic.


text: A study published in 2016 found further evidence for a considerable impact of a slowdown on sea level rise around the U.S. East Coast. The study confirms earlier research findings which identified the region as a hotspot for rising seas, with a potential to divert 3–4 times in the rate of rise, compared to the global average. The researchers attribute the possible increase to an ocean circulation mechanism called deep water formation, which is reduced due to AMOC slow down, leading to more warmer water pockets below the surface. Additionally, the study noted, "Our results suggest that higher carbon emission rates also contribute to increased [sea level rise] in this region compared to the global average."


text: In 2020, a study evaluated the effects of projected AMOC weakening in the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which portrays a future of continually increasing emissions. In this scenario, a weakened AMOC would also slow down Arctic sea ice decline and delay the emergence of an ice-free Arctic by around 6 years, as well as preventing over 50% of sea ice loss on the edges of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk in the years 2061–2080. It also found a southward displacement of Intertropical Convergence Zone, with the associated rainfall increases to the north of it over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and decreases to the south, but cautioned that those trends would be dwarved by the far larger changes in precipitation associated with RCP 8.5. Finally, it found that this slowdown would further deepen Icelandic Low and Aleutian Low due to the displacement of westerly jets.


text: In 2021, a conceptual network model was developed, connecting the AMOC, Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Amazon rainforest (all well-known climate tipping points) through a set of simplified equations. It suggested that while changes to AMOC are unlikely to trigger tipping behaviour in those other elements of the climate system on their own, any other climate element transitioning towards tipping would also affect the others through a connection mediated by the AMOC slowdown, potentially initiating a tipping cascade across multi-century timescales. Consequently, AMOC slowdown would reduce the global warming threshold beyond which any of those four elements (including the AMOC itself) could be expected to tip, as opposed to thresholds established from studying those elements in isolation.


text: A 2021 assessment of the economic impact of climate tipping points found that while tipping points in general would likely increase the social cost of carbon by about 25%, with a 10% chance of tipping points more than doubling it, AMOC slowdown is likely to do the opposite and reduce the social cost of carbon by about -1.4%, since it would act to counteract the effects of warming in Europe, which is more developed and thus represents a larger fraction of the global GDP than the regions which would be impacted negatively by the slowdown. The following year, this finding, and the broader findings of the study, were severely criticized by a group of scientists including Steve Keen and Timothy Lenton, who considered those findings to be a severe underestimate. The authors have responded to this criticism by noting that their paper should be treated as the starting point in economic assessment of tipping points rather than the final word, and since most of the literature included in their meta-analysis lacks the ability to estimate nonmarket climate damages, their numbers are likely to be underestimates.


text: The possibility that the AMOC is a bistable system (which is either "on" or "off") and could collapse suddenly has been a topic of scientific discussion for a long time. In 2004, The Guardian publicized the findings of a report commissioned by Pentagon defence adviser Andrew Marshall, which suggested that the average annual temperature in Europe would drop by 6 Fahrenheit between 2010 and 2020 as the result of an abrupt AMOC shutdown.


text: In general, a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation caused by global warming would trigger cooling in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America. This would particularly affect areas such as the British Isles, France and the Nordic countries, which are warmed by the North Atlantic drift. Major consequences, apart from regional cooling, could also include an increase in major floods and storms, a collapse of plankton stocks, warming or rainfall changes in the tropics or Alaska and Antarctica, more frequent and intense El Niño events due to associated shutdowns of the Kuroshio, Leeuwin, and East Australian Currents that are connected to the same thermohaline circulation as the Gulf Stream, or an oceanic anoxic event — oxygen () below surface levels of the stagnant oceans becomes completely depleted – a probable cause of past mass extinction events.


text: Back in 2002, a study had suggested that an AMOC shutdown may be able to trigger the type of abrupt massive temperature shifts which occurred during the last glacial period: a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events – rapid climate fluctuations – may be attributed to freshwater forcing at high latitude interrupting the THC. 2002 model runs in which the THC is forced to shut down do show cooling – locally up to 8 °C (14 °F). A 2017 review concluded that there is strong evidence for past changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC during abrupt climate events such as the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events.


text: A 2015 study led by James Hansen found that the shutdown or substantial slowdown of the AMOC, besides possibly contributing to extreme end-Eemian events, will cause a more general increase of severe weather. Additional surface cooling from ice melt increases surface and lower tropospheric temperature gradients, and causes in model simulations a large increase of mid-latitude eddy energy throughout the midlatitude troposphere. This in turn leads to an increase of baroclinicity produced by stronger temperature gradients, which provides energy for more severe weather events. This includes winter and near-winter cyclonic storms colloquially known as "superstorms", which generate near-hurricane-force winds and often large amounts of snowfall. These results imply that strong cooling in the North Atlantic from AMOC shutdown potentially increases seasonal mean wind speed of the northeasterlies by as much as 10–20% relative to preindustrial conditions. Because wind power dissipation is proportional to the cube of wind speed, this translates into an increase of storm power dissipation by a factor ∼1.4–2. However, the simulated changes refer to seasonal mean winds averaged over large grid-boxes, not individual storms.


text: In 2017, a study evaluated the effects of a shutdown on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but found no overall impact, with divergent atmospheric processes cancelling each other out. In 2021, a study using a Community Earth System Model suggested that an AMOC slowdown could nevertheless increase the strength of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and thus amplify climate extremes, especially if another Meridional Overturning Circulation develops in the Pacific Ocean in response to AMOC slowdown. In contrast, a 2022 study showed that an AMOC collapse is likely to accelerate the Pacific trade winds and Walker circulation, while weakening Indian and South Atlantic subtropical highs. The next study from the same team showed that the result of those altered atmospheric patterns is a ∼30% reduction in ENSO variability and a ∼95% reduction in the frequency of extreme El Niño events. Unlike today, El Niño events become more frequent in the central rather than eastern Pacific El Niño events. At the same time, this would essentially make a La Nina state dominant across the globe, likely leading to more frequent extreme rainfall over eastern Australia and worse droughts and bushfire seasons over southwestern United States.


text: In 2020, a study had assessed the impact of an AMOC collapse on farming and food production in Great Britain. It estimated that AMOC collapse would reverse the impact of global warming in Great Britain and cause an average temperature drop of 3.4 °C. Moreover, it would lower rainfall during the growing season by around <123mm, which would in turn reduce the land area suitable for arable farming from the 32% to 7%. The net value of British farming would decline by around £346 million per year, or over 10%.


text: A 2021 study used a simplified modelling approach to evaluate the impact of a shutdown on the Amazon rainforest and its hypothesized dieback and transition to a savannah state in some climate change scenarios. It suggested that a shutdown would enhance rainfall over the southern Amazon due to the shift of an Intertropical Convergence Zone and thus would help to counter the dieback and potentially stabilize at least the southern part of the rainforest.


text: Climate reconstructions generally support the hypothesis that the AMOC is already weaker now than it was in the early 20th century. For instance, a 2010 statistical analysis found an ongoing weakening of the AMOC since the late 1930s, with an abrupt shift of a North Atlantic overturning cell around 1970. Climate scientists Michael Mann of Penn State and Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggested that the observed cold pattern during years of temperature records is a sign that the Atlantic Ocean's Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be weakening. They published their findings in 2015, and concluded that the AMOC circulation was slowing throughout the 20th century, and that the weakness it demonstrated after 1975 was unprecedented over the last millennium. They suggested that even though the AMOC had experienced partial recovery after 1975, future Greenland ice sheet melt would be likely to weaken it further still. Another 2015 study suggested that the AMOC has weakened by 15-20% in 200 years. In 2018, another reconstruction suggested a weakening of around 15% since the mid-twentieth century. However, all these findings were challenged by 2022 research which indicated that between 1900 and 2019, a climate change-induced trend did not begin to emerge until 1980, and it is still faint relative to the circulation's natural variability.


text: Some studies attempt to go deeper into the preindustrial past. In 2018, one such paper suggested that the last 150 years of AMOC showed exceptional weakness when compared to the previous 1500 years, and it indicated a discrepancy in the modeled timing of AMOC decline after the Little Ice Age. In February 2021, a study published in "Nature Geoscience" reported that the preceding millennium had seen an unprecedented weakening of the AMOC, an indication that the change was caused by human actions. Its co-author said that AMOC had already slowed by about 15%, with impacts now being seen: "In 20 to 30 years it is likely to weaken further, and that will inevitably influence our weather, so we would see an increase in storms and heatwaves in Europe, and sea level rises on the east coast of the US." In February 2022, "Nature Geoscience" published a "Matters Arising" commentary article co-authored by 17 scientists, which disputed those findings and argued that the long-term AMOC trend remains uncertain. The journal had also published a response from the authors of 2021 study to "Matters Arising" article, where they defended their findings.


text: In February 2021, a study had reconstructed the past 30 years of AMOC variability and found no evidence of decline. In August 2021, study published in "Nature Climate Change" showed significant changes in eight independent AMOC indices, and suggested that they could indicate "an almost complete loss of stability". However, while it drew on over a century of ocean temperature and salinity data, it was forced to omit all data from 35 years before 1900 and after 1980 in order to maintain consistent records of all eight indicators. In April 2022, another study published in "Nature Climate Change" used nearly 120 years of data between 1900 and 2019 and found no change between 1900 and 1980, with a single-sverdrup reduction in AMOC strength not emerging until 1980 - a variation which remains within range of natural variability. A March 2022 review article concluded that while there may be a long-term weakening of the AMOC caused by global warming, it remains difficult to detect when analyzing its evolution since 1980, as that time frame presents both periods of weakening and strengthening, and the magnitude of either change is uncertain (in range between 5% and 25%). The review concluded with a call for more sensitive and longer-term research.


text: Direct observations of the strength of the AMOC have been available only since 2004 from the RAPID array, an in situ mooring array at 26°N in the Atlantic, leaving only indirect evidence of the previous AMOC behavior. While climate models predict a weakening of AMOC under global warming scenarios, they often struggle to match observations or reconstructions of the current. In particular, observed decline in the period 2004–2014 was of a factor 10 higher than that predicted by climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5): however, some scientists attributed this to a larger-than-anticipated interdecadal variability of the circulation, rather than a climate-forced trend, suggesting that the AMOC would recover from it in only a few years. In February 2021, a study indicated that the AMOC did in fact recover from that decline, and found no evidence of an overall AMOC decline over the past 30 years. Likewise, a "Science Advances" study published in 2020 found no significant change in the AMOC circulation relative to 1990s, in spite of the substantial changes in the North Atlantic Ocean over the same period.


text: In April 2004, the hypothesis that the Gulf Stream is switching off received a boost when a retrospective analysis of U.S. satellite data seemed to show a slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, the northern swirl of the Gulf Stream.


text: In May 2005, Peter Wadhams reported in "The Times" (London) about the results of investigations in a submarine under the Arctic ice sheet measuring the giant chimneys of cold dense water, in which the cold dense water normally sinks down to the sea bed and is replaced by warm water, forming one of the engines of the North Atlantic Drift. He and his team found the chimneys to have virtually disappeared. Normally there are seven to twelve giant columns, but Wadhams found only two giant columns, both extremely weak.


text: In 2005 a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream was observed from the last such measurement in 1992. The authors noted uncertainties in the measurements. Following media discussions, Detlef Quadfasel pointed out that the uncertainty of the estimates of Bryden "et al." is high, but says other factors and observations do support their results, and implications based on palaeoclimate records show drops of air temperature up to 10 °C within decades, linked to abrupt switches of ocean circulation when a certain threshold is reached. He concluded that further observations and modelling are crucial for providing early warning of a possible devastating breakdown of the circulation. In response Quirin Schiermeier concluded that natural variation was the culprit for the observations but highlighted possible implications.


text: In 2008, Vage et al. reported "the return of deep convection to the subpolar gyre in both the Labrador and Irminger seas in the winter of 2007–2008," employing "profiling float data from the Argo program to document deep mixing," and "a variety of in situ, satellite and reanalysis data" to set the context for the phenomenon. This might have a lot to do with the observations of variations in cold water chimney behaviour.


text: The research around the future strength of the AMOC is shown below in chronological order. It is primarily based on Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models projections, although large reviews like the IPCC reports are also informed by the present-day observations and historical reconstructions, which allows them to take a wider range of possibilities into account and assign likelihood to the events not explicitly covered by the models.


text: Around 2001, the IPCC Third Assessment Report projected high confidence that the THC would tend to weaken rather than stop, and that the warming effects would outweigh the cooling, even over Europe.


text: When the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report was published in 2014, a rapid transition of the AMOC was considered "very unlikely", and this assessment was offered at a "high confidence" level. That assessment had several limitations, such a reported bias of CMIP models towards AMOC stability, and the insufficient analysis of the impacts on circulation caused by Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater intrusion.


text: In 2016, a study aimed to redress this shortcoming by adding Greenland ice sheet melt estimates to the projections from eight state-of-the-art climate models. It found that by 2090–2100, the AMOC would weaken by around 18% (with a range of potential weakening between 3% and 34%) under the "intermediate" Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, while it would weaken by 37% (with a range between 15% and 65%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which presents a scenario of continually increasing emissions. When the two scenarios are extended past 2100, AMOC stabilized under RCP 4.5, but continues to decline under RCP 8.5, with an average decline of 74% by 2290–2300 and a 44% likelihood of an outright collapse.


text: In 2017, another study applied bias correction to Community Climate System Model and simulated an idealized scenario where CO2 concentrations abruptly double from 1990 levels and remain stable afterwards: according to the authors, such concentrations would result in a warming approximately between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. The AMOC remained stable in a standard model, but collapsed after 300 years of simulation in a bias-corrected model.


text: In 2020, a study ran simulations of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 between 2005 and 2250 in a Community Earth System Model integrated with an advanced ocean physics module which allowed for a more realistic representation of Antarctic ice sheet meltwater. Freshwater input was between 4 and 8 times higher in the modified RCP 4.5 scenario compared to the control run (an increase from 0.1 to 0.4-0.8 sverdrup), and 5 to 10 times stronger in the modified RCP 8.5 scenario (from 0.2 to an average of 1 sverdrup, with the peak values over 2 sverdrup around 2125 due to the collapse of the Ross Ice Shelf). In both RCP 4.5 simulations, AMOC declines from its current strength of 24 sverdrup to 19 sverdrup by 2100: after 2200, it begins to recover in the control simulation but stays at 19 sverdrup in the modified simulation. Under both RCP 8.5 simulations, there's a near-collapse of the current as it declines to 8 sverdrup past 2100 and stays at that level until the end of the simulation period: in the modified simulation, it takes 35 years longer to reach 8 sverdrup than in the control run.


text: Another study published in 2020 analyzed how the AMOC would be impacted by temperature stabilizing at 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees (the two Paris Agreement goals, both well below the warming under of RCP 4.5) or 3 degrees by 2100 (slightly above the expected warming by 2100 under RCP 4.5). In all three cases, the AMOC declines for an additional 5–10 years after the temperature rise ceases, but it does not come close to collapse, and recovers its strength after about 150 years.


text: In 2021, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report again assessed that the AMOC is "very likely" to decline within the 21st century, and expressed "high confidence" that changes to it would be reversible within centuries if the warming was reversed. Unlike the Fifth Assessment Report, it had only expressed "medium confidence" rather than "high confidence" in AMOC avoiding a collapse before the end of the century. This reduction in confidence was likely influenced by several review studies drawing attention to the circulation stability bias within general circulation models, as well as simplified ocean modelling studies suggesting that the AMOC may be more vulnerable to abrupt change than what the larger-scale models suggest.


text: In 2022, a study performed modelling experiments with three climate models participating in Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project, and it found that very aggressive mitigation of air pollution like particulates and ground-level ozone could weaken AMOC circulation by 10% by the end of the century if it happened on its own, due to the reduction in climate-cooling stratospheric sulfur aerosols. The authors recommended pairing air pollution mitigation with the mitigation of methane emissions in order to avoid this outcome, as both methane (a strong warming agent) and sulfate aerosols (a cooling agent) are similarly short-lived in the atmosphere, and a simultaneous reduction of both would cancel out their effects.


text: In 2022, an extensive assessment of all potential climate tipping points identified 16 plausible climate tipping points, including a collapse of the AMOC. It suggested that a collapse would most likely be triggered by 4 degrees Celsius of global warming, but that there's enough uncertainty to suggest it could be triggered at warming levels as low as 1.4 degrees, or as high as 8 degrees. Likewise, it estimates that once AMOC collapse is triggered, it would most likely take place over 50 years, but the entire range is between 15 and 300 years. Finally, it concludes that this collapse would lower global temperatures by around 0.5 degrees Celsius, while regional temperatures in Europe would go down by between 4 and 10 degrees Celsius. That assessment also treated the collapse of the Northern Subpolar Gyre as a potential separate tipping point, which could occur at between 1.1 degrees and 3.8 degrees of warming (although this is only simulated by a fraction of climate models). The most likely figure is 1.8 degrees, and once triggered, the collapse of the gyre would most likely take 10 years from start to end, with a range between 5 and 50 years. The loss of this convection is estimated to lower the global temperature by 0.5 degrees, while the average temperature in Europe decreases by around 3 degrees. There are also substantial impacts on regional precipitation.


text: The film "The Day After Tomorrow" and the British TV Series "Ice" both explore exaggerated scenarios related to the AMOC shutdown.


text: Kim Stanley Robinson's science-fiction novel "Fifty Degrees Below", a volume in his "Science in the Capital" series, depicts a shutdown of thermohaline circulation & mankind's efforts to counteract it by adding great quantities of salt to the ocean.


text: In Ian Douglas' Star Corpsman novels, an AMOC shutdown triggered an early glacial maximum, covering most of Canada and northern Europe in ice sheets by the mid-22nd century.


title: Jackson (song)

text: "Jackson" is a song written in 1963 by Billy Edd Wheeler and Jerry Leiber. It was recorded in 1963 by the Kingston Trio, Wheeler and Flatt and Scruggs. It achieved its most notable popularity with two 1967 releases: a country hit single by Johnny Cash and June Carter, which reached No. 2 on the "Billboard" Country Singles chart, and a pop hit single by Nancy Sinatra and Lee Hazlewood, which reached No. 14 on the "Billboard" Hot 100 and No. 39 on Easy Listening.


title: Jackson (song)

text: Actress Gaby Rodgers is cited as co-author of "Jackson", because Leiber, in writing it with Wheeler, used his then-wife's name as a pseudonym. First recorded in 1963 by Wheeler, he explains the evolution of the song, and Leiber's contribution:


title: Jackson (song)

text: 'Jackson' came to me when I read the script for Edward Albee's "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf" (I was too broke to see the play on Broadway)...When I played it for Jerry [Leiber], he said 'Your first verses suck,' or words to that effect. 'Throw them away and start the song with your last verse, "We got married in a fever, hotter than a pepper sprout."' When I protested to Jerry that I couldn't start the song with the climax, he said, 'Oh, yes you can.' So I rewrote the song and thanks to Jerry's editing and help, it worked. I recorded the song on my first Kapp Records album, with Joan Sommer, an old friend from Berea, Kentucky, singing the woman's part. Johnny Cash learned the song from that album, "A New Bag of Songs", produced by Jerry and Mike.


title: Jackson (song)

text: The song is about a married couple who find that the "fire" has gone out of their relationship. It relates the desire of both partners to travel to "Jackson" where the husband believes he will be turned loose, be with many women and be practically worshipped as he has his wild time. The wife says he is going to achieve nothing but the damaging of his health and that people are going to see him as a fool. She says she will be there waiting, having her own fun laughing at him.


title: Jackson (song)

text: There has been much speculation regarding which city of Jackson the song is about, but Wheeler said: "Actually, I didn’t have a specific Jackson in mind. I just liked the sharp consonant sound, as opposed to soft-sounding words like Nashville." Though Wheeler had no particular Jackson in mind when writing the song, some subsequent singers have specified Jackson, Tennessee. The previous source also quotes Charlie Daniels as having recorded "Jackson" with these lines, "I ain't talking 'bout Jackson, Mississippi. I'm talking 'bout Jackson, Tennessee". And, Johnny Cash is quoted in the video from the same source: "Well, I was gonna take her down to see Carl Perkins in Jackson." Carl Perkins lived in Jackson, Tennessee.


title: Jackson (song)

text: Johnny Cash and June Carter released a version in February 1967, reaching No. 2 on the US Country charts and winning a Grammy Award in 1968 for Best Country & Western Performance Duet, Trio or Group. This version was reprised by Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, performing as Johnny Cash and June Carter, in the 2005 film "Walk the Line", and also appears on the soundtrack of the 2011 film "The Help".


title: Jackson (song)

text: Nancy Sinatra and Lee Hazlewood put out their take in July 1967, hitting No. 14 on the US Chart that year. Their cover also peaked at No. 4 in South Africa. It also performed very well in continental Europe, where it made No. 8 in the then West Germany, No. 4 in Austria, No. 9 in the Netherlands, No. 2 in Flemish-speaking Belgium, No. 3 in French-speaking Belgium, and No. 4 in Norway. The song was featured in Nancy Sinatra's 1967 TV special "Movin' with Nancy".


title: Jackson (song)

text: The Australian rock band INXS included "Jackson" on the 1985 release of their "Dekadance" EP. This version featured a duet between lead singer Michael Hutchence and backing singer (and later star in her own right), Jenny Morris.


title: Jackson (song)

text: Phil Alvin and Exene Cervenka recorded their version for "Fun on Saturday Night", a 2012 album by the Blasters.


title: Jackson (song)

text: Trixie Mattel and Orville Peck did a cover in 2021, first as a single and then as part of Mattel's EP "Full Coverage, Vol. 1".


title: Jackson (song)

text: According to the "Guinness Book of British Hit Singles & Albums", the name of UK pop band Prefab Sprout was a mondegreen from the lyrics "We got married in a fever, hotter than a pepper sprout", misheard by frontman Paddy McAloon. McAloon has maintained, however, that the name was entirely made up.


title: Jackson (song)

text: "Jackson" is featured in the pilot episode and the finale of "Defiance"; in the pilot the two main characters listen to the song and then sing along. In the finale one of those characters, Nolan, asks if a recording of the song is available, and quotes one line of it as he leaves Earth.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Nicola Jane Bryant (born 11 October 1960) is an English actress known for her roles as Peri Brown, a companion to both the Fifth and Sixth Doctors in the BBC science fiction television series "Doctor Who", from 1984 to 1986 and as Martine Johnson the dance teacher in the school drama series "The Biz" from 1995 to 1997. She also played Miss Brown in "The Stranger" film series and Lana in "Star Trek Continues".


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Nicola Bryant was born and raised in a small village near Guildford in Surrey, the older of two daughters of Denis and Sheila Bryant. She has a younger sister named Tracy. She began taking dance classes at the age of three, and also took piano lessons. At the age of ten she auditioned to go to ballet schools, but was unable to take up places offered because of asthma. Upset by this development, she joined a local amateur dramatic group.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: On leaving school she auditioned for all of the London drama schools, and took up a scholarship to the Webber Douglas Academy of Dramatic Art. In her final year there, she played the part of Nanette in a production of the musical "No, No, Nanette".


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Bryant's first professional part was as Peri Brown in "Doctor Who". She played the part from 1984 to 1986, first with Peter Davison, and then with Colin Baker as the Doctor. Bryant's tenure on the show was met with raised eyebrows in some quarters as series producer John Nathan-Turner admitted (in his book "Doctor Who: The Companions" and elsewhere) that his intention was to pump up the sex appeal of the ageing series by casting the young actress who was often seen wearing low-cut outfits in the show. Her character was American and for a while a publicity-driven fiction was maintained suggesting Bryant was also American, something Bryant had herself stated in press interviews when she landed the part. During her final series on "Doctor Who", the actress was allowed to dress more conservatively on the show.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Bryant appeared in the "Doctor Who" serial "The Two Doctors" (1985), and she enjoyed working with Patrick Troughton, who returned as the Second Doctor. During the programme's hiatus during 1985 and 1986, Bryant reprised the role of Peri in a BBC radio production entitled "Slipback" alongside Baker.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: After appearing in "Doctor Who", Bryant spent nine months at the Savoy Theatre in the West End of London in the thriller "Killing Jessica" with Patrick Macnee, directed by Bryan Forbes. She was cast in other television roles, including a part in "Blackadder's Christmas Carol" (1988). In the early to mid-1990s, she co-starred with Baker in a series of made-for-video science fiction films entitled "The Stranger" for BBV, although the first few films in the series were little more than "Doctor Who" episodes in disguise. She also appeared alongside Baker, Davison, Sylvester McCoy and Jon Pertwee in another BBV production, "The Airzone Solution", which includes a love scene between Baker and Bryant.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Bryant has reprised the role of Peri in several of the Big Finish Productions "Doctor Who" spin-off audio plays, appearing both with Peter Davison and Colin Baker. She also directed "" and "Judge Dredd: 99 Code Red!".


title: Nicola Bryant

text: In February 2006, she performed in a New End Theatre production of the Carl Djerassi play "Taboos", and in early 2007 appeared in a London stage production of Tom Stoppard's "Rock 'n' Roll" at the Duke of York's Theatre. A DVD documentary, "In The Footsteps of The Two Doctors", following Bryant's return to some of the locations featured in the "Doctor Who" serial "The Two Doctors", was released in late 2006.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: She returned to the stage in 2008 in a touring production of an adaptation of Daphne du Maurier’s "Don't Look Now", playing the part of Laura Baxter. This production continued into 2009.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: In the summer of 2009, Bryant filmed an improvised documentary-style film for Australian director Ben Briand as well as recording eight audio stories for Big Finish as a "missing season" of adventures for "Doctor Who". On 2 March 2010 she appeared in "Holby City" as a television news reporter, and in 2011 she featured in the "Dark Shadows" audio drama "The Blind Painter". In 2013 she appeared in a "Doctor Who"-themed episode of the game show "Pointless".


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Bryant guest-starred as ‘Lana’ in the 2017 two-part finale of the internet series "Star Trek Continues", which finishes the five-year mission of "".


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Appearing in many award-winning commercials all over the world, Nicola has most notably been the face of Woolwich Building Society, National Saving, and Nurofen. Bryant was in the Ridley Scott Associates production for Axa Health Insurance for the last three years.


title: Nicola Bryant

text: Bryant's voice-over work spans more than three decades. She has been the voice behind many famous products including BMW, Duchy Originals, Florida Orange Juice, Twinings Tea, Nationwide, Woolwich Building Society, numerous medical and pharmaceutical companies, Bovis Houses, and documentaries for the BBC and NBC.


title: Daegu-class frigate

text: The "Daegu"-class frigate (Hangul: 대구급 호위함, Hanja: 大邱級護衛艦) is a class of guided missile frigates of the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN). The "Daegu" class is based on the preceding , and has otherwise been referred to as the "Incheon" class batch II, or FFG-II. Eight "Daegu"-class ships are planned, with the final goal of 20–22 frigates (of all types) in the ROKN. The "Daegu"-class frigates are to be built by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) and Hyundai Heavy Industries.


title: Daegu-class frigate

text: The "Daegu" class is an improved variant of the . Modifications to the "Incheon" class include a TB-250K towed array sonar system and a 16-cell Korean Vertical Launching System (K-VLS) that is able to deploy the K-SAAM, Hong Sang Eo anti-submarine missile, and Haeryong tactical land attack cruise missiles.


title: Daegu-class frigate

text: The hull design is generally based on the one of the "Incheon" class. However, as a part of weapon system modifications, the superstructure has been significantly changed. The hangar and a helicopter deck on the stern has been enlarged to support the operation of a 10-ton helicopter.


title: Daegu-class frigate

text: The "Daegu" class is the first Korean warship to be equipped with a combined diesel-electric or gas (CODLOG) propulsion system. The propulsion system of the ROKN ships have a gas turbine direct drive and four high speed diesel generators driving two Leonardo DRS permanent magnet electric motors. The Rolls Royce MT30 turbine engine replaces the twin gas turbine layout of the "Incheon"-class frigates.


title: Daegu-class frigate

text: The "Daegu" class provides improved anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capability than the predecessor "Incheon" class. The improved ASW capability provided by the Hanwha Systems SQS-250K towed array sonar and SQS-240K hull-mounted sonar.


title: Treebeard

text: Treebeard, or Fangorn in Sindarin, is a tree-giant character in J. R. R. Tolkien's "The Lord of the Rings". He is an Ent and is said by Gandalf to be "the oldest living thing that still walks beneath the Sun upon this Middle-earth." He lives in the ancient Forest of Fangorn, to which he has given his name. It lies at the southern end of the Misty Mountains. He is described as being about 14 feet (4.5 m) in height, and in appearance similar to a beech or an oak.


title: Treebeard

text: In "The Two Towers", Treebeard meets with Merry Brandybuck and Pippin Took, two Hobbits of the Shire. This meeting proves to have consequences that contribute significantly to the story and enables the events that occur in "The Return of the King".


title: Treebeard

text: In Sindarin, one of Tolkien's Elvish languages, "Fangorn" is a compound of "fanga", "beard", and "orne", "tree", so it is the equivalent of the English "Treebeard". The Rohirrim (Riders of Rohan) called Fangorn Forest the "Entwood", the wood of the Ents. Treebeard gave it various names in Quenya, another Elvish language: ""Ambaróna"" means "uprising, sunrise, orient" from "amba", "upwards" and "róna", "east". ""Aldalómë"" means "tree twilight" from "alda", "tree" and "lómë", "dusk, twilight". ""Tauremorna"" means "gloomy forest" from "taur", "forest", and "morna", "gloomy". ""Tauremornalómë"" means "gloomy twilight forest".


title: Treebeard

text: The word "Ent" was taken from the Old English "ent" or "eoten", meaning "giant". Tolkien borrowed the word from a phrase in the Anglo-Saxon poems "The Ruin" and "Maxims II", "orþanc enta geweorc" ("cunning work of giants"), which describe Roman ruins in Britain.


title: Treebeard

text: Treebeard's deep booming voice with his "hrum, hroom" mannerism is said by Tolkien's biographer, Humphrey Carpenter, to be based on that of Tolkien's friend and fellow-Inkling at Oxford, C. S. Lewis.


title: Treebeard

text: The Forest of Fangorn was at the south-eastern end of the Misty Mountains near the Gap of Rohan. The mountains formed the western border of Fangorn. At the end of the mountain range stood Saruman's stronghold of Isengard near the southwestern corner of the forest. To the east and south of Fangorn was the land of Rohan, and Lothlórien lay to the north and slightly east. Fangorn Forest stretched for many miles and held many paths.


title: Treebeard

text: Two significant rivers ran through the forest. To the north the Limlight flowed from the woods and then formed the northern border of Rohan. The river then merged into the larger Anduin. In the south, the Entwash spread deep into the forest arriving from Methedras, a mountainous region located near the Misty Mountains. The river then flowed through Rohan to the great river, the Anduin. The valley of Derndingle was to the south-west. There was a path where the Entwash passed into a region called Wellinghall with one of Treebeard's homes.


title: Treebeard

text: Fangorn Forest was said to be humid, and trunks and branches of many kinds of tree grew thick, allowing little light to penetrate. Huorns also lived deep within in the forest, like Ents but more discreet. The Ents and Huorns drank from the river Entwash, and from it the Ents brewed their legendary drink, the Ent-draughts.


title: Treebeard

text: As told in "The Silmarillion", Ents were created in the Elder Days. They were created to be the "Shepherds of the Trees" and protect trees from the anticipated destruction that Dwarves would cause. Further details are provided in "The Lord of the Rings", where Treebeard recounts to Merry and Pippin how the Ents were "awakened" and taught to speak by the Elves of that time. Treebeard also says that only three Ents remain from the Elder Days: himself, Finglas (Leaflock) and Fladrif (Skinbark). He tells the hobbits of the time when he could walk through the woods of Middle-earth for days. He sings a song about roaming the woods of Middle-earth, naming regions of Beleriand which were destroyed in the war with Morgoth and now lie "beneath the waves." He says there are valleys in Fangorn forest where the Great Darkness, the period of Morgoth's rule before the arising of the Moon and Sun, never lifted and the trees are older than he.


title: Treebeard

text: After meeting Merry and Pippin, Treebeard learns that they think that Gandalf is dead, though apparently he knows otherwise. He then takes them to a place that he says might be called "Wellinghall" in the Common Speech. There the hobbits tell him their adventures and Treebeard learns of Saruman's treachery. When they are finished, Treebeard says,


title: Treebeard

text: Treebeard muses, "I must do something, I suppose." Saruman used to walk in Fangorn forest and talk to him, but on reflection he says that although he told Saruman many things, Saruman never told him anything. He realizes now that Saruman is plotting to be "a Power" and wonders what evil he is really doing: why has Saruman taken up with Orcs, why there are so many Orcs in his woods, and why these Orcs are able to bear sunlight. He is angered by trees being felled "to feed the fires of Orthanc." He overcomes his anger and then, thinking aloud, begins to make plans for the next day. He also tells Merry and Pippin about the Entwives. The critic Tom Shippey writes that Fangorn's explanations are "authoritative and indeed .. 'professorial'. They admit no denial."


title: Treebeard

text: When the hobbits awake in the morning, Treebeard is not there, but he soon arrives and announces that he has been busy, and they will drink and then go to Entmoot. Entmoot, he explains to Pippin, is not a place but a gathering of Ents. Treebeard carries them to the place where the Ents meet. This gathering lasts three days. The Entmoot ends with all the Ents shouting, and then singing a marching song and striding to Isengard with Treebeard in the lead: 'the last march of the Ents', as Treebeard refers to it. During the march, Pippin notices the Huorns following.


title: Treebeard

text: The Ents arrive at Isengard as Saruman's army is leaving, and they wait. After the army leaves, Treebeard bangs on the gates and shouts for Saruman to come forth. Saruman refuses, and the Ents attack. They reduce the outer walls to rubble and destroy much of what is inside the walls. Treebeard then calls for an end to the attack and the Ents divert the river Isen, drowning the entire ruined fortress and all its underground furnaces and workshops. Saruman is left in the impregnable tower, surrounded by water and watchful Ents. After imprisoning Saruman, some of the Ents (including Treebeard) and Huorns keep watch.


title: Treebeard

text: A delegation led by Gandalf arrives at Isengard and, except Gandalf, are amazed that it has been destroyed. Treebeard promises Gandalf that Saruman will remain in the tower.


title: Treebeard

text: In "The Return of the King", Treebeard is still at Isengard, now renamed to the Treegarth of Orthanc, when a group led by Aragorn, now King of Gondor, comes there after the victory over Sauron, made possible partly because the Ents had helped to destroy Saruman's forces. Treebeard admits that he let Saruman go a few days before. Gandalf gently chastises him saying that Saruman might have persuaded Treebeard to let him go by "the poison of his voice." Treebeard delivers the keys of Orthanc to the King, who gives the valley of Orthanc to Treebeard and his ents. Finally, Treebeard says farewell to the elf-rulers Celeborn and Galadriel "with great reverence" and the words "It is long, long since we met by stock or by stone".


title: Treebeard

text: Shippey notes that these words echo a line in the Middle English poem "Pearl", ""We meten so selden by stok other stone"". Where in "Pearl" the mention of stock and stone means in earthy reality, Shippey writes, the phrase fits the Fangorn context well, since Treebeard's "sense of ultimate loss naturally centres on felled trees and barren ground."


title: Treebeard

text: Treebeard has inspired artists and illustrators such as Inger Edelfeldt, John Howe, Ted Nasmith, Anke Eißmann, and Alan Lee. In Ralph Bakshi's 1978 animated adaptation of "The Lord of the Rings", John Westbrook provided the voice of Treebeard. Stephen Thorne voiced the character in BBC Radio's 1981 serialization.


title: Treebeard

text: In Peter Jackson's films "" (2002) and "" (2003), Treebeard is a combination of a large animatronic model and a CGI construct; his voice is performed by John Rhys-Davies, who also portrays Gimli.


title: Treebeard

text: There are some differences between Jackson's and Tolkien's portrayals of Treebeard. The Tolkien scholar David Bratman writes that Jackson's Treebeard spends far more time than Tolkien's character suspecting the Hobbits of being Orcs. The scholar Judith Kollmann states that in Jackson's film, Treebeard resists going to war with Saruman until he sees how much damage Saruman has done to the south of Fangorn forest.


title: Treebeard

text: A 6-metre-high sculpture of Treebeard by Tolkien's great-nephew Tim Tolkien received planning permission in Birmingham, where Tolkien grew up. On The Tolkien Ensemble's album "At Dawn in Rivendell", Treebeard is voiced by Christopher Lee.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Sir John Berry Hobbs (16 December 1882– 21 December 1963), always known as Jack Hobbs, was an English professional cricketer who played for Surrey from 1905 to 1934 and for England in 61 Test matches between 1908 and 1930. Known as "The Master", he is widely regarded as one of the greatest batsmen in the history of cricket. He is the leading run-scorer and century-maker in first-class cricket, with 61,237 runs and 197 centuries. A right-handed batsman and an occasional right-arm medium pace bowler, Hobbs also excelled as a fielder, particularly in the position of cover point. Hobbs was named as one of the five "Wisden" Cricketers of the Century alongside Sir Donald Bradman, Sir Garfield Sobers, Shane Warne, and Sir Viv Richards.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Born into poverty in 1882, Hobbs wished from an early age to pursue a career in cricket. His early batting was undistinguished, but a sudden improvement in 1901 brought him to the attention of local teams. In 1903, he successfully applied to join Surrey, with the support of England batsman Tom Hayward. His reputation grew and when he qualified to play for Surrey, he scored 88 on his first-class debut and a century in his next game. Over the following seasons, he established himself as a successful county player and in 1908 made his Test debut for England, scoring 83 in his first innings. After some mixed early performances for England, Hobbs' success against South African googly bowlers made his place secure, and by 1911–12, when he scored three centuries in the Test series against Australia, critics judged him the world's best batsman. In county cricket, he developed an attacking, dynamic style of play and was very successful up until 1914. After serving in the Royal Flying Corps during the First World War, he maintained his reputation when cricket resumed in 1919, but his career was threatened by appendicitis, which caused him to miss most of the 1921 season. When he returned, he was a more cautious batsman and used a safer style of play. Subsequently, he became more consistent and scored prolifically in both Test and domestic cricket until his retirement. In this period, he played some of his most acclaimed innings.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs' success was based on fast footwork, an ability to play many different shots, and excellent placement of the ball. Among the first batsmen to succeed against previously devastating googly bowlers, he adapted his technique to meet the new styles of bowling that arose early in his career; he mixed classical shots with an effective defence. He was particularly successful on difficult pitches for batting. An opening batsman, Hobbs established several effective opening partnerships; with Tom Hayward and Andy Sandham for Surrey and with Wilfred Rhodes and Herbert Sutcliffe for England. Despite batting against "ruthless bowlers on very hostile pitches with [fewer] safety regulations", his partnership with Sutcliffe remains in 2022 the highest average for a first-wicket partnership in Test history by a wide margin. Contemporaries rated Hobbs extremely highly, and critics continue to list him among the best batsmen of all time.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs was very close to Ada, his wife of 56 years; the pair were able to live comfortably in later life through Hobbs' substantial wage from Surrey, his commercial endorsements, and the proceeds of the sporting goods shop he opened in 1921 and ran for nearly the rest of his life. After his cricketing retirement, he also worked in journalism. Knighted in 1953—the first professional cricketer to be so honoured—he spent his later years nursing his wife. He died, aged 81, a few months after her in 1963.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs was born in Cambridge on 16 December 1882, the first of 12 children to John Cooper Hobbs, a slater, and his wife Flora Matilda Berry. Hobbs was raised in a poor, run-down area of the city, and he spent most of his childhood in near poverty. Hobbs senior, a lover of cricket, changed his career to become a professional cricketer, and in 1889 was appointed groundsman and umpire at Jesus College.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: From an early age, Hobbs played cricket whenever he could. His first games were played in the streets near his house. He was educated at a primary school affiliated with his local Anglican church, St Matthew's, and moved in 1891 to York Street Boys' School, a fee-paying establishment; Hobbs later admitted to being a poor scholar but was successful at sports. He played cricket regularly for the St Matthew's choir team and the York Street school team, and during holidays helped his father at Jesus College. In his final year at York Street, to supplement the family budget, Hobbs took a job working before school hours in the domestic service of a private house. On leaving school in 1895, he worked as an errand boy until his father's connections at the university secured him a summer job as a college servant, chiefly assisting the cricket team. Aged 16, Hobbs became an apprentice gas fitter, and practised cricket on Parker's Piece, an open area of common land in Cambridge, in his spare time. He played for various local clubs but did not initially stand out as a cricketer: although better than most other Cambridge batsmen, no coaches or major teams approached him, and his batting gave little indication of the success which came later.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs' breakthrough came in 1901. His batting improved throughout the season, during which he scored 102 for Ainsworth against the Cambridge Liberals, his first century. At the end of the season, he was included in a Cambridge XI, a team chosen from the best local cricketers, to play a prestigious match against a team of professional cricketers brought by the Cambridge-born Surrey cricketer Tom Hayward. Hobbs' overall record was unremarkable, but at the end of the season he was invited to play as an amateur for Cambridgeshire; he achieved little in his appearances.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Early in 1902, Hobbs was appointed as assistant to the professional cricket coach at Bedford School, working as a groundsman and bowling in the nets. In late August, he returned to Cambridge to play as a professional for the first time. For a fee of ten shillings, Hobbs appeared for a team from the nearby town of Royston against Hertfordshire Club and Ground and scored 119 runs. His success delighted his family and made him a local celebrity. Hobbs' father, who had helped to arrange his appearance in the match, died from pneumonia a week later. Despite local fund-raising efforts for the bereaved family, Hobbs senior's death left his wife and children facing great financial hardship. Francis Hutt, a former friend and colleague of the father, contacted Essex County Cricket Club to request a trial for Hobbs. That county never replied—Hobbs later scored his maiden first-class century against them—but Hutt was more successful when he asked Hayward to look at Hobbs with a view to recommending him to Surrey. Consequently, in late 1902, Hobbs batted on Parker's Piece against Hayward and Bill Reeves, an Essex cricketer born in Cambridge, impressing Hayward in the process. In the winter of 1902–03 Hobbs assumed his father's duties as groundsman at Jesus College.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs was summoned to Surrey for a trial in April 1903, and subsequently offered a contract with the ground staff at the Oval on a basic wage during the season of 30 shillings a week. Hobbs could not immediately play for Surrey owing to the qualification rules in place at the time for the County Championship—a player had to be born in a county or to have lived there for two years in order to represent it. To achieve qualification, he moved to the Surrey area of London. Around this time he played football for local teams as a forward with some success, but struggled financially during the winter months and found it hard to find employment.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: While qualifying, Hobbs played for Surrey's Colts side and for the Club and Ground Eleven, both of which were teams for young cricketers. Although he made some substantial scores, according to his biographer, Leo McKinstry, "just as he had done for much of his early life, [Hobbs] performed satisfactorily without doing anything startling". In the 1903 season he scored 480 runs at an average of 34.29, as well as taking 19 wickets as his bowling improved. The following season, Hobbs played only for the Club and Ground, increased his average to 43.90, and impressed people connected with the Surrey county side. His sudden improvement brought about a temporary return to the Cambridgeshire team, for which he remained qualified by birth. His batting was praised, particularly when he scored 195 and 129 in two matches against Hertfordshire. In total, he scored 696 runs in 13 innings for Cambridgeshire, averaging 58.00.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: By the start of the 1905 season, Hobbs had qualified for Surrey and was already being noted as a player of promise. At the time, Surrey needed an opening batsman to partner Tom Hayward. Although Hobbs had rarely opened the batting, he was selected as Hayward's opening partner for Surrey's first game of the season. He made his debut on 24 April 1905 against a team representing the "Gentlemen of England"; after scoring 18 runs in the first innings, he scored a rapid 88 in the second before rain ensured the match was drawn. The Surrey team and committee were impressed, and Hobbs retained his place for the club's opening County Championship match against Essex. When he scored 155 runs in around three hours during Surrey's second innings, the Surrey captain Lord Dalmeny awarded Hobbs his County Cap. Over the following weeks, Hobbs scored consistently, hitting another century against Essex and 94 runs against the touring Australian cricket team. But a combination of fatigue from continuous cricket and the pressure of first-class cricket adversely affected his form, and he struggled for the remainder of the season even as the county tried various measures to help him. In first-class cricket that season, Hobbs scored 1,317 runs at an average of 25.82, including two centuries and four other scores over fifty, to finish ninth in the Surrey batting averages. As an occasional medium-paced bowler, he took six wickets. Reviewing Surrey's season, "Wisden Cricketers' Almanack" singled Hobbs out for attention, praising his early-season form; it suggested that he was the best professional batsman Surrey had found for a long time. "The Times" noted that, while performing well, Hobbs had fallen short of the standards suggested by his start.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: After a winter of practice, Hobbs displayed greater consistency in 1906. Displaying a wider range of shots, he scored four centuries, including another against Essex, and established an effective opening partnership with Hayward. Between his debut and Hayward's retirement in 1914, the pair shared 40 opening partnerships in excess of 100 runs. Hobbs was generally the junior partner, and was overawed by Hayward, to the extent that he did not feel confident enough to invite him to his wedding. Hayward influenced Hobbs' mental approach, particularly his running between the wickets, but the pair were dissimilar in style. In all first-class cricket in 1906, Hobbs scored 1,913 runs at an average of 40.70 with a highest score of 162, placing him second in the Surrey averages. "Wisden" praised his improved fielding and commented that he was "one of the best professional bats of the year". Hobbs made further advances in 1907. Unusually frequent rain during the season—"Wisden" described the season as the wettest ever—meant that pitches often favoured bowlers. After a poor start, Hobbs successfully adapted to the conditions, and scored consistently well. In June, he and Hayward shared four century opening partnerships in one week. Hobbs scored four centuries in total and by the end of the season had scored 2,135 runs, averaging 37.45. He was one of only three men to pass 2,000 runs; he was second to Hayward in the Surrey averages, and eighth nationally. His performances brought him to the attention of the Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC) selectors, and he was chosen for the Players in the prestigious Gentlemen v Players matches in July, although he scored few runs in either game.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs was selected to tour Australia in the 1907–08 season with an MCC team, given his opportunity by the unavailability of several leading players. Throughout the outward voyage, Hobbs was severely affected by sea-sickness, a condition which afflicted him on sea voyages throughout his life; in later tours, he travelled overland as far as possible to reduce his time on ships. Consequently, he missed the first two games of the tour against the Australian state teams. His appearances were further limited by the reluctance of the MCC captain, Arthur Jones, to select him. He played in only two of the early matches, failing on both occasions, and was left out of the team for the first Test match. After England lost the game, Hobbs was chosen for the second Test. Hobbs made his Test debut on 1January 1908 at Melbourne Cricket Ground. Opening the England batting on the second day, Hobbs scored 83 runs in 182 minutes. Eventually, England needed 282 to win and did so by one wicket; Hobbs scored 28. He retained his place for the rest of the series. In the fourth match, he scored 57 on a pitch badly affected by rain; by adopting a policy of attacking the bowling he hit ten fours. He concluded his series with an innings of 72 in the final game, but could not prevent a third successive English defeat—the home side won the five-match series 4–1. He scored 302 runs in the Tests at an average of 43.14. In other first-class matches, he scored centuries against Tasmania and Victoria, totalling 876 runs at 41.71.


title: Jack Hobbs

text: Hobbs scored fewer runs in 1908, despite better conditions for batting. Even so, he scored 81 in the Gentlemen v Players game, achieved a batting average over 40 in the County Championship and scored six centuries for Surrey. In all first-class games, Hobbs scored 1,904 runs at 37.33. For his achievements that season, Hobbs was chosen as one of "Wisden's" Cricketers of the Year. The citation noted that "at the present time there is perhaps no better professional batsman in England except Hayward and Tyldesley".