Ivelaphi inkolelo-mbono yokuhamba okungahleliwe?
Context:I-random walk hypothesis iyimbono yezezimali ethi amanani emakethe yamasheya athuthuka ngokuya ngokuhamba okungahleliwe (ngakho-ke izinguquko zamanani ziyindlala) ngakho-ke azikwazi ukubikezelwa. Lo mqondo ungasuselwa kumthengisi waseFrance uJules Regnault owashicilela incwadi ngo-1863, bese kuba isazi sezibalo esingumFulentshi uLouis Bachelier ogama lakhe elithi Ph.D. dissertation elinesihloko esithi "The Theory of Speculation" (1900) lalifaka imibono ethile ephawulekayo nokuphawula. Imibono efanayo kamuva yathuthukiswa uprofesa we-MIT Sloan School of Management uPaul Cootner encwadini yakhe yango-1964 ethi The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. Leli gama laziwa kakhulu encwadini ka-1973 ethi A Random Walk Down Wall Street kaBurton Malkiel, uprofesa wezomnotho ePrinceton University, futhi lalisetshenziswe ngaphambili esihlokweni sika-1965 sika-Eugene Fama esithi "I-Random Walks In Stock Market Prices", okwakuyinguqulo engeyona yezobuchwepheshe ye-Ph.D. yakhe. ithisisi. Umbono wokuthi izintengo zamasheya zihamba ngokungahleliwe ekuqaleni wawuphakanyiswe uMaurice Kendall ephepheni lakhe lango-1953, i-Analysis of Economic Time Series, Ingxenye 1: Amanani.
Kuthiwa inkolelo-mbono yokuhamba okungahleliwe yaqala emuva maphakathi nawo-1800 ngumsunguli wezimali waseFrance okuthiwa uJules Regnault. I-random walk hypothesis iphawula ukuthi ukunyakaza kwamanani amasheya kungokungahleliwe ngokuphelele futhi akunakubikezelwa kalula.