Ubani owasungula inkolelo-mbono yeBlack Swan?
Context:Umbono we-swan omnyama noma umbono wezehlakalo ze-swan emnyama uyisifaniso esichaza isehlakalo esifika singalindelekile, sinomthelela omkhulu, futhi sivame ukucatshangelwa ngokungalungile ngemuva kweqiniso ngenzuzo yokubona emuva. Leli gama lisuselwa esisho sasendulo sokuthi ama-swan amnyama ayekho <unk> isisho esahunyushwa kabusha ukuze sifundise isifundo esihlukile ngemuva kokutholakala kwawo e-Australia.  Lo mbono wasungulwa nguNassim Nicholas Taleb, kusukela ngo-2001, ukuchaza:  1. Izinkomo Indima engafanele yezenzakalo eziphawulekayo, okunzima ukuzibona kusengaphambili, nezenzakalo ezingavamile ezingaphezu kwalokho okulindelekile emlandweni, kwezesayensi, kwezezimali, nakwezobuchwepheshe. 2. Izingelosi Ukungakwazi ukubala amathuba ezenzakalo ezingavamile eziwumphumela ngokusebenzisa izindlela zesayensi (ngenxa yemvelo yamathuba amancane). 3. Izindaba Ezinhle Ukuthambekela okungokwengqondo okuphuphuthekisa abantu, ngabanye nanjengeqembu, ekungaqiniseki nasendimeni ebalulekile yezenzakalo ezingavamile ezindabeni zomlando.  "Imfundiso kaTaleb ye-swan emnyama" ibhekisela kuphela ezenzakalweni ezingalindelekile ezinkulu kakhulu futhi ezinomphumela omkhulu nendima yazo ebalulekile emlandweni. Izehlakalo ezinjalo, ezibhekwa njengezihlukile ngokweqile, ngokuhlanganyela zidlala izindima ezinkulu kakhulu kunokuvela okujwayelekile. Ngokusemthethweni, ku-monograph yesayensi ethi "Silent Risk", uTaleb uchaza inkinga ye-black swan ngokuthi "ivela ekusetshenzisweni kwe-metaprobability ewohlokile".
I-Black Swan Theory yasungulwa uNassim Nicholas Taleb ngo-2001.