Nikolai Kondratiev Kondratiev cycle Nicolas-Remi Brück fr Charles Henri Lagrange fr geopolitics Peter Turchin cliodynamics Turchin cycle or formulas analysis
At the start of the 20th century, there was a movement to express historical movements in formulas. In 1922, Nikolai Kondratiev discerned the ~50-year-long Kondratiev cycle, which explains phases of economic growth or crisis. Towards the end of the 19th century, Nicolas-Remi Brück [fr] and Charles Henri Lagrange [fr] had extended their analysis into geopolitics. They wanted to establish the historical existence of vast movements that took peoples to their apogee, then to their decline. More recently, Peter Turchin has been working on developing cliodynamics since the 1990s. (In particular, he discovered the Turchin cycle, which predicts that violence spikes in a short cycle of ~50-year intervals, superimposed over a longer cycle of ~200–300 years.)
