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The dataset generation failed because of a cast error
Error code: DatasetGenerationCastError
Exception: DatasetGenerationCastError
Message: An error occurred while generating the dataset
All the data files must have the same columns, but at some point there are 1 new columns ({'Category'})
This happened while the csv dataset builder was generating data using
hf://datasets/EagleWHLiang/FinSen/FinSen_Dataset-main/data.pptx/FinSen_US_Categorized.csv (at revision 26d4674664d22ece0ee672aa740a3147e497268e)
Please either edit the data files to have matching columns, or separate them into different configurations (see docs at https://hf.co/docs/hub/datasets-manual-configuration#multiple-configurations)
Traceback: Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1870, in _prepare_split_single
writer.write_table(table)
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/arrow_writer.py", line 622, in write_table
pa_table = table_cast(pa_table, self._schema)
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2292, in table_cast
return cast_table_to_schema(table, schema)
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2240, in cast_table_to_schema
raise CastError(
datasets.table.CastError: Couldn't cast
Title: string
Tag: string
Content: string
Category: string
-- schema metadata --
pandas: '{"index_columns": [{"kind": "range", "name": null, "start": 0, "' + 709
to
{'Title': Value(dtype='string', id=None), 'Tag': Value(dtype='string', id=None), 'Content': Value(dtype='string', id=None)}
because column names don't match
During handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1405, in compute_config_parquet_and_info_response
parquet_operations = convert_to_parquet(builder)
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1044, in convert_to_parquet
builder.download_and_prepare(
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 924, in download_and_prepare
self._download_and_prepare(
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1000, in _download_and_prepare
self._prepare_split(split_generator, **prepare_split_kwargs)
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1741, in _prepare_split
for job_id, done, content in self._prepare_split_single(
File "/src/services/worker/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1872, in _prepare_split_single
raise DatasetGenerationCastError.from_cast_error(
datasets.exceptions.DatasetGenerationCastError: An error occurred while generating the dataset
All the data files must have the same columns, but at some point there are 1 new columns ({'Category'})
This happened while the csv dataset builder was generating data using
hf://datasets/EagleWHLiang/FinSen/FinSen_Dataset-main/data.pptx/FinSen_US_Categorized.csv (at revision 26d4674664d22ece0ee672aa740a3147e497268e)
Please either edit the data files to have matching columns, or separate them into different configurations (see docs at https://hf.co/docs/hub/datasets-manual-configuration#multiple-configurations)Need help to make the dataset viewer work? Make sure to review how to configure the dataset viewer, and open a discussion for direct support.
Title
string | Tag
string | Content
string |
|---|---|---|
TSX Slightly Down, Books Weekly Gains | Stock Market | TSX Slightly Down, Books Weekly GainsUnited States Stock MarketThe S&P/TSX Composite index ended marginally in the red at the 20,260 level on Friday, the highest since late May, snapping the sharp gains from the prior three sessions while adding 2.2% on the week amid continuous hopes that lower inflation will ease central banks’ prolonged tightening pressure. Energy producers led the losses of the session and slipped 2.3%, tracking lower oil prices. Also, policy-sensitive tech shares edged down by 0.2%, tracking their peers on Nasdaq. On the other hand, the heavyweight financial sector gained 0.3% following some upbeat corporate results for US banking giants. Among stocks, TELUS International tumbled 30.5% after the IT services company estimated a loss for the second quarter results. Pine Cliff Energy fell 6.9% after being downgraded by Stifel. Also, First Quantum Minerals slipped 0.7% after Raymond James downgraded the rating on copper miner. 2 days ago |
UnitedHealth Hits 4-week High | stocks | UnitedHealth Hits 4-week HighUnited States stocksUnitedHealth increased to a 4-week high of 483.243 days ago |
Cisco Systems Hits 4-week Low | stocks | Cisco Systems Hits 4-week LowUnited States stocksCisco Systems decreased to a 4-week low of 50.083 days ago |
AT&T Hits All-time Low | stocks | AT&T Hits All-time LowUnited States stocksAT&T decreased to an all-time low of 14.393 days ago |
Microsoft Hits 4-week High | stocks | Microsoft Hits 4-week HighUnited States stocksMicrosoft increased to a 4-week high of 348.563 days ago |
JPMorgan Hits 16-month High | stocks | JPMorgan Hits 16-month HighUnited States stocksJPMorgan increased to a 16-month high of 151.683 days ago |
US Export Prices Fall More than Expected | Export Prices MoM | US Export Prices Fall More than ExpectedUnited States Export Prices MoMExport prices in the US dropped 0.9 percent month-over-month in June 2023, following a 1.9 percent fall in May and more than market expectations of a 0.2 percent decrease. Prices for agricultural exports fell 1.6 percent due to lower prices for soybeans, fruit, and nuts more than offset higher meat prices. Also, nonagricultural cost decreased 0.9 percent as lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and nonagricultural foods more than offset higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles. On a yearly basis, export prices tumbled 12 percent, the largest decline since the series was first published in September 1984.3 days ago |
Citigroup earnings above expectations at 1.37 USD | Earnings | Citigroup earnings above expectations at 1.37 USDUnited States EarningsCitigroup (C) released earnings per share at 1.37 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.30 USD.3 days ago |
US Treasury Yields Below Recent Highs | Government Bond 10Y | US Treasury Yields Below Recent Highs United States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was around 3.78% on Friday, close to low levels not seen since late June, after both consumer and producer inflation figures came below market forecasts, raising expectations the Fed will end its tightening cycle sooner rather than later. Traders are assigning a 95% chance of a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate later this month but remain divided on the need of further increases, although several officials including Chair Powell and Governor Waller have been advocating for another increase in borrowing costs beyond July. Bets for a September increase currently stand at 13% and for November at 21%. Meanwhile, the yield on the US two-year note, the most sensitive to short-term policy moves, dropped to 4.63%.3 days ago |
Wells Fargo earnings above expectations at 1.25 USD | Earnings | Wells Fargo earnings above expectations at 1.25 USDUnited States EarningsWells Fargo (WFC) released earnings per share at 1.25 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.18 USD.3 days ago |
BlackRock earnings above expectations at 9.28 USD | Earnings | BlackRock earnings above expectations at 9.28 USDUnited States EarningsBlackRock (BLK) released earnings per share at 9.28 USD, compared to market expectations of 8.43 USD.3 days ago |
UnitedHealth earnings above expectations at 6.14 USD | Earnings | UnitedHealth earnings above expectations at 6.14 USDUnited States EarningsUnitedHealth (UNH) released earnings per share at 6.14 USD, compared to market expectations of 6.06 USD.3 days ago |
Dollar Languishes on Dovish Fed Bets | Currency | Dollar Languishes on Dovish Fed BetsUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index held its recent decline to below 100 on Friday, sinking to its lowest levels in 15 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June even as the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases after this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. The dollar plunged to over one-year lows against the euro and sterling, while it declined to multi-month lows against the yen and antipodean currencies.3 days ago |
Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation Slows | Currency | Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation SlowsUnited States CurrencyBitcoin broke above the $31,000 mark in mid-July, hitting its strongest levels in 13 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June, while the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. Optimism over the creation of spot bitcoin ETFs by major financial firms such as BlackRock also continued to bolster prices, though the US SEC has yet to approve applications.3 days ago |
US Budget Deficit Widens More than Expected in June | Government Budget Value | US Budget Deficit Widens More than Expected in JuneUnited States Government Budget ValueThe US government budget deficit came at USD 227.8 billion in June 2023, widening from a USD 88.8 billion gap in the same month of the previous year, and below market expectations of a USD 175 billion deficit as revenues continued to weaken and July benefit payments were accelerated into June. Revenues declined by 9.2% to USD 418 billion due to lower non-withheld individual income taxes. Outlays soared 17.5% to $646 billion led by higher individual tax refunds as the Internal Revenue Service cleared a backlog of unprocessed receipts. Considering the first nine months of the fiscal year, the budget deficit stood at USD 1.393 trillion compared to a USD 1.375 billion deficit a year earlier.
4 days ago |
Visa Hits 24-week High | stocks | Visa Hits 24-week HighUnited States stocksVisa increased to a 24-week high of 244.264 days ago |
Amazon Hits 43-week High | stocks | Amazon Hits 43-week HighUnited States stocksAmazon increased to a 43-week high of 133.964 days ago |
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls for 4th Session | Government Bond 10Y | 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls for 4th SessionUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered near 3.85% on Thursday, extending a decline for a 4th session as further evidence that price pressures are slowing in the US raised hopes of a less aggressive path ahead. Both headline and core producer prices came in softer than expected in June, rising 0.1% from the previous month. Earlier, data showed headline inflation dropping more than expected to 3%. Still, the US central bank is widely expected to raise the funds rate by 25bps this month before holding rates unchanged until the end of the year.4 days ago |
DXY Approaches 100 | Currency | DXY Approaches 100United States CurrencyThe dollar index fell toward 100 on Thursday, sinking to its weakest levels in over a year as softer-than-expected US producer and consumer price numbers bolstered speculations that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 3% in June, coming in below market expectations of 3.1%, while the core inflation rate eased further to 4.8%. Also, producer prices went up 0.1% from a month earlier, less than forecasts of 0.2%. The Fed is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points this month, while traders scaled back bets of any further rate increases this year. The dollar slumped to over one-year lows against the euro and the sterling, while it depreciated to around one-month lows against the yen and antipodean currencies.4 days ago |
US Core PPI Rises Less than Expected | Core Producer Prices MoM | US Core PPI Rises Less than ExpectedUnited States Core Producer Prices MoMCore producer prices in the United States increased by 0.1% over a month in June 2023, matching May's revised reading and slightly below market estimates of a 0.2% rise. On a yearly basis, core consumer prices advanced by 2.4% in June, slowing from a downwardly revised 2.6% increase in May and below market expectations of a 2.6% rise.4 days ago |
Progressive earnings below expectations at 0.57 USD | Earnings | Progressive earnings below expectations at 0.57 USDUnited States EarningsProgressive (PGR) released earnings per share at 0.57 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.89 USD.4 days ago |
PepsiCo earnings above expectations at 2.09 USD | Earnings | PepsiCo earnings above expectations at 2.09 USDUnited States EarningsPepsiCo (PEP) released earnings per share at 2.09 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.96 USD.4 days ago |
UnitedHealth earnings above expectations at 6.14 USD | Earnings | UnitedHealth earnings above expectations at 6.14 USDUnited States EarningsUnitedHealth (UNH) released earnings per share at 6.14 USD, compared to market expectations of 6.06 USD.3 days ago |
Dollar Languishes on Dovish Fed Bets | Currency | Dollar Languishes on Dovish Fed BetsUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index held its recent decline to below 100 on Friday, sinking to its lowest levels in 15 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June even as the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases after this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. The dollar plunged to over one-year lows against the euro and sterling, while it declined to multi-month lows against the yen and antipodean currencies.3 days ago |
Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation Slows | Currency | Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation SlowsUnited States CurrencyBitcoin broke above the $31,000 mark in mid-July, hitting its strongest levels in 13 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June, while the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. Optimism over the creation of spot bitcoin ETFs by major financial firms such as BlackRock also continued to bolster prices, though the US SEC has yet to approve applications.3 days ago |
US Budget Deficit Widens More than Expected in June | Government Budget Value | US Budget Deficit Widens More than Expected in JuneUnited States Government Budget ValueThe US government budget deficit came at USD 227.8 billion in June 2023, widening from a USD 88.8 billion gap in the same month of the previous year, and below market expectations of a USD 175 billion deficit as revenues continued to weaken and July benefit payments were accelerated into June. Revenues declined by 9.2% to USD 418 billion due to lower non-withheld individual income taxes. Outlays soared 17.5% to $646 billion led by higher individual tax refunds as the Internal Revenue Service cleared a backlog of unprocessed receipts. Considering the first nine months of the fiscal year, the budget deficit stood at USD 1.393 trillion compared to a USD 1.375 billion deficit a year earlier.
4 days ago |
Visa Hits 24-week High | stocks | Visa Hits 24-week HighUnited States stocksVisa increased to a 24-week high of 244.264 days ago |
Amazon Hits 43-week High | stocks | Amazon Hits 43-week HighUnited States stocksAmazon increased to a 43-week high of 133.964 days ago |
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls for 4th Session | Government Bond 10Y | 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls for 4th SessionUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered near 3.85% on Thursday, extending a decline for a 4th session as further evidence that price pressures are slowing in the US raised hopes of a less aggressive path ahead. Both headline and core producer prices came in softer than expected in June, rising 0.1% from the previous month. Earlier, data showed headline inflation dropping more than expected to 3%. Still, the US central bank is widely expected to raise the funds rate by 25bps this month before holding rates unchanged until the end of the year.4 days ago |
DXY Approaches 100 | Currency | DXY Approaches 100United States CurrencyThe dollar index fell toward 100 on Thursday, sinking to its weakest levels in over a year as softer-than-expected US producer and consumer price numbers bolstered speculations that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 3% in June, coming in below market expectations of 3.1%, while the core inflation rate eased further to 4.8%. Also, producer prices went up 0.1% from a month earlier, less than forecasts of 0.2%. The Fed is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points this month, while traders scaled back bets of any further rate increases this year. The dollar slumped to over one-year lows against the euro and the sterling, while it depreciated to around one-month lows against the yen and antipodean currencies.4 days ago |
US Core PPI Rises Less than Expected | Core Producer Prices MoM | US Core PPI Rises Less than ExpectedUnited States Core Producer Prices MoMCore producer prices in the United States increased by 0.1% over a month in June 2023, matching May's revised reading and slightly below market estimates of a 0.2% rise. On a yearly basis, core consumer prices advanced by 2.4% in June, slowing from a downwardly revised 2.6% increase in May and below market expectations of a 2.6% rise.4 days ago |
Progressive earnings below expectations at 0.57 USD | Earnings | Progressive earnings below expectations at 0.57 USDUnited States EarningsProgressive (PGR) released earnings per share at 0.57 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.89 USD.4 days ago |
PepsiCo earnings above expectations at 2.09 USD | Earnings | PepsiCo earnings above expectations at 2.09 USDUnited States EarningsPepsiCo (PEP) released earnings per share at 2.09 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.96 USD.4 days ago |
US Mortgage Applications Rise 0.9%: MBA | Mortgage Applications | US Mortgage Applications Rise 0.9%: MBAUnited States Mortgage ApplicationsMortgage applications in the US edged 0.9% higher in the week ended July 7th, 2023, following a 4.4% decline in the previous week, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association data showed. Applications to buy a home increased 1.8%, driven by increases in both Federal Housing Administration and VA . Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 1.3%, as demand for rate/term and cash-out refinances remains extremely low. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) jumped 22bps to 7.07%, the highest in eight months, as Treasury yields marched higher after Fed Chair reinforced that interest rates will need to rise further this year.5 days ago |
Dollar Languishes Ahead of Key Inflation Report | Currency | Dollar Languishes Ahead of Key Inflation ReportUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index fell below 101.6 on Wednesday, hitting its weakest levels in two months amid growing expectations that US inflation will continue to ease and that the Federal Reserve will soon stop hiking rates. On Monday, several US central bank officials said they will likely lift rates further this year to bring down inflation that is still too high, but the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting closer. Meanwhile, latest data showed that US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for a third consecutive month to 3.8% in June 2023 from 4.1% in May, the lowest in over two years. Economic optimism in the US also unexpectedly declined to an eight-month low in July. Investors now look ahead to the June US consumer price index report to provide clarity on the Fed’s progress in fighting inflation. The dollar weakened the most against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, while it depreciated to an almost one-month low against the Japanese yen.5 days ago |
US Futures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Data | Stock Market | US Futures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation DataUnited States Stock MarketUS stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors braced for a key US inflation report that could guide the outlook for the economy and interest rates. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow jumped 0.93%, the S&P 500 gained 0.67% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.55%, with all three benchmarks rising for the second straight session. Ten out of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, led to the upside by energy, utilities and industrials, while the healthcare sector was unchanged. Investors digested remarks from several Federal Reserve officials who said they will likely need to raise rates further to bring down inflation, but the end of the tightening cycle is getting close. Meanwhile, the June consumer price index reading due before the market opens on Wednesday is expected to show that price pressures are continuing to cool. 5 days ago |
US Crude Oil Inventories Unexpectedly Rise: API | API Crude Oil Stock Change | US Crude Oil Inventories Unexpectedly Rise: APIUnited States API Crude Oil Stock ChangeStocks of crude oil in the US increased by 3.026 million barrels in the week that ended July 7th, 2023, snapping three straight weeks of draw, data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin showed. The reading followed a fall of 4.385 million barrels in the previous week while the market expected a 0.2 million decline.
5 days ago |
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 3rd Session | Government Bond 10Y | US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 3rd SessionUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the third consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.6 days ago |
Dollar Weakens to 2-Month Low | Currency | Dollar Weakens to 2-Month LowUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index fell to around 101.8 on Tuesday, hitting its weakest levels in two months as several US central bank officials said they will likely raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, but the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close. Markets are currently priced for a 25 basis point rate increase this month, while doubts persist on the need for further hikes. US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead also fell for a third consecutive month to 3.8% in June 2023 from 4.1% in May, the lowest in over two years. Investors now look ahead to US consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer inflation numbers on Thursday for more clues on the economy and the path for interest rates. The dollar fell the most against the British Pound which touched the $1.29 mark, its strongest level since April 2022. Also, the Swiss Franc hit $0.88, closing on the strongest since January 2015 and the Yen touched a 4-week high of $140. 6 days ago |
US Consumer Credit Misses Forecasts, Lowest Since 2020 | Consumer Credit | US Consumer Credit Misses Forecasts, Lowest Since 2020United States Consumer CreditTotal consumer credit in the US increased by $7.24 billion in May of 2023, following a downwardly revised $20.32 billion rise in the previous month and well below market expectations of a $20.25 billion rise. It was the smallest monthly gain in consumer credit since November of 2020, as revolving credit, like credit cards, growth slowed to $8.49 billion (or +8.2 percent on annual basis), compared to an upwardly revised $14.16 billion rise in the prior month. Non Revolving credit, typically auto and student loans, fell by $1.25 billion ( or -0.4 percent), following a downwardly revised $6.15 billion gain in the prior month.
7 days ago |
Dollar Wavers as Traders Await Releases | Currency | Dollar Wavers as Traders Await Releases United States CurrencyThe dollar index swung around 102.2 on Monday, following a 0.9% drop on Friday, with traders awaiting important data to be released during the week to assess the health of the US economy. The CPI and the PPI reports and the beginning of the US earnings season will be keenly watched, after the jobs report on Friday continued to point to strong wage growth, despite a slowdown in the number of payrolls added. Investors have already priced in a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate later in the month, but doubts persist on the need for further hikes. 7 days ago |
Treasury Yields Little Changed Ahead of Inflation | Government Bond 10Y | Treasury Yields Little Changed Ahead of InflationUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was around 4.05%, close to the highest since November 2022 as markets continued to assess the latest data for hints on the extent of remaining tightening by the Federal Reserve. The CPI report due on Wednesday and the PPI on Thursday will be in the spotlight this week. On Friday, the payrolls report showed the economy added less jobs than expected in June, but the increase was robust enough to hold recent evidence that the US labor market remains tight, a favourable backdrop for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates to curb stubborn inflation. The central bank is expected to raise its funds rate by 25bps in its upcoming meeting this month before holding the terminal rate of 5.5% until May of 2024.7 days ago |
US Futures Waver | Stock Market | US Futures Waver United States Stock MarketStock futures in the US swung around the flatline on Monday, as traders await the US CPI report and the kick off of the second quarter earnings season later in the week. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 34% for November. Moreover, concerns about the weakening Chinese recovery persisted after disappointing consumer and producer inflation figures. On the earnings front, reports from prominent financial institutions such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, along with Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, BlackRock, and UnitedHealth Group will be in the spotlight this week.7 days ago |
US Dollar Stays Below 103 | Currency | US Dollar Stays Below 103United States CurrencyThe dollar index remained below 103 on Monday, as traders recalculated over how much further US interest rate would be needed after US jobs data posted the smallest rise in 2-1/2 years. The US economy added 209,000 jobs last month, data on Friday showed, missing market expectations for the first time in 15 months. Meanwhile, the jobless rate fell slightly to 3.6%, while wage growth was strong with earnings rising 4.4% over the past twelve months. Investors now anticipated a slew of US inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials this week.
7 days ago |
US Natural Gas Stocks Rise More than Expected: EIA | Natural Gas Stocks Change | US Natural Gas Stocks Rise More than Expected: EIAUnited States Natural Gas Stocks ChangeUS utilities added 72 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week that ended June 30th, totaling 2,877 billion cubic feet. The figure outpaced market expectations of a 64 billion influx, and rose above the 60 billion cubic feet build from the corresponding week of the previous year. Natural gas storages are 25% higher than those from June 2022, and 15.6% above the five-year average from 2018 to 2022.
10 days ago |
10-Year Treasury Note Yield Rises to 8-Month High | Government Bond 10Y | 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Rises to 8-Month HighUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held above 4.05% on Friday, the highest since November 2022 as markets continued to assess the latest data for hints on the extent of remaining tightening by the Federal Reserve. Non-farm payrolls rose slightly less than markets expected in June, but the increase was robust enough to hold recent evidence that the US labor market remains tight, a favorable backdrop for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates to curb stubborn inflation. The central bank is expected to raise its funds rate by 25bps in its upcoming meeting this month before holding the terminal rate of 5.5% until May of 2024. 10 days ago |
Dollar Weakens as NFP Data Disappoints | Currency | Dollar Weakens as NFP Data DisappointsUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index dropped below 103 on Friday after the latest labor data cast some doubts over the need for further tightening by the Fed. The US economy added only 209 thousand jobs in June, the least since December 2020 but the jobless rate decreased slightly to 3.6%, and wage growth of 4.4% surpassed market expectations. Traders now fully price in a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate this month but the odds for another quarter-point increase beyond July decreased. 10 days ago |
US Jobless Rate Falls to 3.6% | Unemployment Rate | US Jobless Rate Falls to 3.6%United States Unemployment RateThe unemployment rate in the US decreased slightly to 3.6 percent in June 2023, which is lower than May's seven-month high of 3.7 percent and in line with market expectations. The jobless rate has fluctuated between 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent since March 2022, indicating a consistently tight labor market and allowing the Federal Reserve the flexibility to continue raising interest rates as a means to combat inflation. The number of unemployed people decreased by 140 thousand to 5.96 million and employment levels rose by 273 thousand to 160.99 million. The so-called U-6 unemployment rate, which also includes people who want to work, but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, rose to 6.9 percent in June from 6.7 percent in May. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent, remaining at its highest level since March 2020.10 days ago |
US Futures Steady Ahead of Payrolls | Stock Market | US Futures Steady Ahead of PayrollsUnited States Stock MarketUS stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the payrolls release which will provide further evidence of the labour market performance and clues on what the Fed will do next. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 90% chance of a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month while the odds for another quarter point increase in November stand at about 38%. In premarket trading, most tech and growth megacaps experienced slight declines, while shares of Alibaba rose following a report by Reuters stating that Chinese authorities are likely to impose a fine of at least CNY 8 billion on Ant Group. Considering the first week of the second half of the year, the Dow Jones is down nearly 1.4%, the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. Next week, investors can expect further insights into the health of the US economy, as the earnings season kicks off and the CPI for June is due to be released on Wednesday.10 days ago |
Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key Jobs Report | Currency | Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key Jobs ReportUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index steadied around 103.1 on Friday as investors cautiously awaited a key US jobs report that could influence the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, which is expected to show that US jobs growth eased in June. Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that private companies in the US added 497K jobs in June, the most since February 2022 and far exceeding forecasts of 228K, pointing to a still tight labor market. Employers also announced the least job cuts since October and continuing claims fell to the lowest in four months. Moreover, the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 53.9 in June of 2023, pointing to the strongest growth in the services sector in four months, and well above expectations of 51. The strong jobs and services data bolstered bets that the Fed will lift rates further in July.10 days ago |
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month High | 30 Year Mortgage Rate | US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage RateThe average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”11 days ago |
US Crude Oil Inventories Fall Slightly More than Expected | Crude Oil Stocks Change | US Crude Oil Inventories Fall Slightly More than ExpectedUnited States Crude Oil Stocks ChangeUS crude oil inventories dropped by 1.508 million barrels in the week ending June 30th, 2023, the least in three weeks but slightly more than forecasts of a 0.983 million fall, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub were down by 0.4 million barrels, following a 1.209 million increase in the previous period. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, went down by 1.045 million barrels, compared to expectations of a 0.296 million rise and gasoline inventories decreased by 2.55 million, compared with forecasts of a 1.417 million drop.11 days ago |
Dollar Rebounds | Currency | Dollar Rebounds United States CurrencyThe dollar index inched higher to pass 103.5 on Thursday after fresh data showed the US economy remains strong strengthening the case for the Fed to continue to raise rates. The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 53.9 in June of 2023, pointing to the strongest growth in the services sector in four months, and well above expectations of 51. Also, private businesses added 497K workers to their payrolls in June, the most since February 2022 and exceeding forecasts of 228K while employers announced the least job cuts since October, and continuing claims fell to the lowest in four months. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 95% chance of a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate while the odds for another quarter-point increase in September went up to 30% from around 20% early. The payrolls report due tomorrow will be keenly watched for further information.11 days ago |
US Job Quits Rise to 5-Month High | Job Quits | US Job Quits Rise to 5-Month HighUnited States Job QuitsThe number of job quits in the United States rose by 250K from the previous month to 4.02 million in May of 2023, the highest level since last December. That was below record peaks of roughly 4.5 million quits reached in November 2021 but was still historically high. The number of quits increased mostly in health care and social assistance (+69,000) and in construction (+57,000). The quits rate, which measures the proportion of voluntary job leavers among total employment, was up to 2.6% in May from 2.4% in the prior month.11 days ago |
US Private Sector Output Grows at Softer Pace in June | Composite PMI | US Private Sector Output Grows at Softer Pace in JuneUnited States Composite PMIThe S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised upward to 53.2 in June 2023 from the preliminary estimate of 53.0. However, it remained below May's reading of 54.3, indicating a solid but slower upturn in business activity. Service providers experienced a softer increase in output, while there was a renewed contraction in manufacturing production. New order growth slowed due to a continued decline in export orders, while employment saw a moderate increase. On the pricing front, cost pressures intensified, with a second consecutive fall in cost burdens among manufacturers being offset by the sharpest rise in service sector costs recorded since January. Output charges continued to rise at a strong rate, well above the pre-pandemic average.11 days ago |
US Services PMI Revised Slightly Higher | Services PMI | US Services PMI Revised Slightly HigherUnited States Services PMIThe S&P Global US Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 54.4 in June of 2023 from a preliminary of 54.1, continuing to point to a robust services performance. Output continued to rise at a solid pace as the demand environment improved, spurring a strong upturn in new orders. Domestic and foreign client demand supported new business growth, as new export orders rose for a second month running. Job creation was also linked to greater pressure on capacity as backlogs of work returned to growth. Supplier shortages, higher interest rates and increased wage bills pushed cost burdens higher. Input prices consequently rose at the sharpest pace in five months. That said, efforts to remain competitive led to more muted upticks in charges, meaning selling prices increased at the slowest rate since February. Also, firms were more upbeat in their year-ahead expectations for activity and sought to expand employment accordingly. 11 days ago |
Dollar Slightly Lower on Thursday | Currency | Dollar Slightly Lower on ThursdayUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index swung around 103.3 on Thursday, after booking small gains this week, as traders digest prospects of higher interest rates and mixed economic data. Yesterday, FOMC minutes reinforced expectations for a rate increase this month, with traders currently assigning a nearly 93% chance of a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate while the odds for another quarter-point increase in September went up to 30% from around 20% early. At the same time, labour market data including the job cuts, the ADP and the claims report continue to point to a strong job market. The payrolls report due tomorrow will be keenly watched for further information. On the other hand, production indicators including the ISM manufacturing PMI and factory orders disappointed.11 days ago |
US Exports Down to 14-Month Low | Exports | US Exports Down to 14-Month LowUnited States ExportsExports from the United States decreased by USD 2.1 billion to USD 247.1 billion in May 2023, the lowest level since March 2022, reflecting weakened global demand. Exports of goods were down USD 2.5 billion mainly due to lower sales of soybeans, as well as industrial supplies and materials including crude oil, other petroleum products and natural gas liquids. Exports of services rose USD 0.4 billion, boosted by travel, transport and other business services.11 days ago |
US Imports Drop to 17-Month Low | Imports | US Imports Drop to 17-Month LowUnited States ImportsImports into the United States plummeted by USD 7.5 billion to USD 316.1 billion in May 2023, the lowest level since December 2021, suggesting that persistently high inflation and rising interest rates may have impacted domestic demand. Imports of goods decreased USD 7.2 billion, led by lower purchases of consumer goods, including pharmaceutical preparations and cell phones and other household goods. Additionally, imports were down for industrial supplies and materials thanks to falling purchases of nonmonetary gold and organic chemicals. By contrast, imports of computers rose. Finally, imports of services declined USD 0.3 billion, driven by transport and travel.
11 days ago |
US Initial Jobless Claims Rise as Expected | Initial Jobless Claims | US Initial Jobless Claims Rise as ExpectedUnited States Initial Jobless ClaimsThe number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to 248,000 on the week ending July 1st, broadly aligned with expectations of 245,000. Still, the result remained well below historical averages and the brief peaks from the first three weeks of June, echoing evidence of a tight labor market from other surveys for the period. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, fell by 3,500 to 253,250. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, claims rose by 20,838 to 250,556, with notable increases in Michigan (+6,729) and New York (+4,341). In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1,720,000 in the prior week, the lowest in four months, suggesting that conditions for jobseekers to find employment may be improving.11 days ago |
US Trade Gap Falls Slightly as Expected | Balance of Trade | US Trade Gap Falls Slightly as ExpectedUnited States Balance of TradeThe US trade gap narrowed slightly to $69 billion in May of 2023 from $74.4 billion in April, in line with market expectations. Imports went down 2.3% to $316.1 billion, the lowest level since December 2021, led by falls in purchases of pharmaceutical preparations, cell phones, nonmonetary gold, organic chemicals, transport and travel while increases were seen for artwork and computers. Meanwhile, exports edged 0.8% lower to $247.1 billion, dragged down by purchases of soybeans, crude oil, natural gas, and charges for the use of intellectual property. On the other hand, shipments went up for passenger cars, travel and transport. In May, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China ($-24.9 billion), the European Union ($-16.5 billion), Mexico ($-13.5 billion), Vietnam ($-8.1 billion) and the highest surpluses with the Netherlands ($3.9 billion), Belgium ($1.7 billion), Hong Kong ($1.6 billion), Australia ($1.2 billion), the United Kingdom ($1.2 billion), Brazil ($1 billion).11 days ago |
US Companies Cut the Least Jobs in 8 Months | Challenger Job Cuts | US Companies Cut the Least Jobs in 8 MonthsUnited States Challenger Job CutsUS-based employers announced 40.709K job cuts in June 2023, the lowest level since October 2022, compared to 80.809K in May. Still, the reading is above 32.517K layoffs announced a year earlier. The tech sector laid off nearly 5,000 employees. "The drop in cuts is not unusual for the summer months. In fact, June is historically the slowest month on average for announcements. It is also possible that the deep job losses predicted due to inflation and interest rates will not come to pass, particularly as the Fed holds rates," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. So far this year, employers have announced 458,209 cuts, the highest first-half total since 2020. Technology is leading with 141,516 cuts, the second-highest total for the sector ever, followed by retail companies (48,212) and financial firms (39,768). The top reason for job cuts is Market/Economic Conditions, followed by Cost-Cutting and store, unit, or department Closings.11 days ago |
Mortgage Rates at 1-Month High: MBA | Mortgage Rate | Mortgage Rates at 1-Month High: MBAUnited States Mortgage RateThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) in the US jumped 10bps to 6.85% in the last week of June 2023. Interest rates moved back to high levels not seen in nearly a month, as Treasury yields marched higher after Fed Chair reinforced that interest rates will need to rise further this year.11 days ago |
Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Rise: MBA | Mortgage Applications | Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Rise: MBAUnited States Mortgage ApplicationsMortgage applications in the US fell 4.4% in the week ended June 30th, 2023, the first decline in four weeks, weighed by a rise in mortgage rates, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association data showed. Applications to buy a home were down 4.6% and those to refinance a home loan dropped 4.1%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) jumped 10bps to 6.85%, back to high levels not seen in nearly a month, as Treasury yields marched higher after Fed Chair reinforced that interest rates will need to rise further this year. "The average loan size for a purchase application declined to $423,500, its lowest level since January 2023”, likely driven by a drop in homebuying in some high-price markets and more activity in some of the lower price tiers, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist.11 days ago |
Dollar Firms Up on Hawkish Fed View | Currency | Dollar Firms Up on Hawkish Fed ViewUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index held its recent advance to around 103.4 on Thursday, approaching its highest levels in over three weeks as the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes reinforced expectations for a rate increase this month. The FOMC loosely agreed to pause its rate hikes in June to assess the impact of its aggressive tightening campaign on inflation and growth. However, the minutes showed that a vast majority of policymakers expect further rate increases this year to curb stubbornly high inflation amid a so-far resilient labor market. Meanwhile, US factory orders slowed more than expected in May, while ISM data showed that US manufacturing activity for June contracted the most since May 2022. Investors now look ahead to the latest ADP private payrolls and initial jobless claims figures on Thursday, as well as services PMI reports.11 days ago |
US Crude Oil Inventories Fall the Most in Over 1 Month: API | API Crude Oil Stock Change | US Crude Oil Inventories Fall the Most in Over 1 Month: APIUnited States API Crude Oil Stock ChangeStocks of crude oil in the US dropped by 4.382 million barrels in the week that ended June 30th, 2023, marking the third consecutive draw and the sharpest since mid-May, data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin showed. It extended the decrease of 2.408 million barrels the previous week.11 days ago |
US Dollar Rises to 3-Week High | Currency | US Dollar Rises to 3-Week HighUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index advanced to above 103.3 on Wednesday, hovering at its highest in over three weeks as markets digested minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The FOMC loosely agreed to pause rate hikes so that further data could be gathered on how the aggressive tightening cycle has impacted inflation and growth. Still, some policymakers favored a 25bps rate hike, and there was a broad consensus that further tightening will eventually be needed to curb stubbornly high inflation amid a so-far resilient labor market. Still, swap prices showed that investors continued to doubt the dot-plot’s signal of two additional rate hikes this year, as the slowing economy could force the Fed to be less hawkish than it is inclined. Factory orders slowed more than expected in May, while ISM data showed that US manufacturing activity for June contracted the most since May 2022.12 days ago |
US 10Y Bond Yield Holds at 4-Month High | Government Bond 10Y | US 10Y Bond Yield Holds at 4-Month HighUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note maintained its position above the 3.9% threshold, hovering close to its highest level since early March after the minutes from the June's FOMC policy-setting meeting revealed that a majority of policymakers were in agreement that further interest rate hikes would be appropriate during 2023. Officials acknowledged that inflation, despite a recent slowdown, remained significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while emphasizing the persistently tight labor market. Nevertheless, concerns regarding an economic slowdown led market expectations to anticipate a 25bps increase in the central bank's upcoming meeting, with a subsequent pause, deviating from indications of 50bps of additional rate hikes suggested in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections.12 days ago |
Treasury Yields Rise to 4-Month High | Government Bond 10Y | Treasury Yields Rise to 4-Month HighUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose toward the 3.9% mark in early July, the highest since early March, as markets continued to assess the latest economic data for hints on the extent of the Federal Reserve’s remaining tightening. Minutes from the FOMC’s latest policy-setting meeting are expected to show that the committee broadly agrees that more interest rate hikes are necessary to fight the recent stubbornness observed in core inflation rates. Still, concerns of a slowing economy drove markets to expect a 25bps increase in the central bank’s next meeting before an eventual pause, coming short of signals of 50bps of remaining hikes from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. Besides recent signs of a loosening job market, fresh data showed that factory orders slowed considerably in May. Markets also assessed concerns of upside inflation risks amid export restrictions from China, which could lift prices in motor trades.12 days ago |
US Stocks Fall, FOMC Minutes Eyed | Stock Market | US Stocks Fall, FOMC Minutes EyedUnited States Stock MarketUS stocks were lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones falling about 100 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down nearly 0.3% each, as investors return from the Independence Day holiday to face concerns about the health of the global economy. The services PMI data pointed to a sharp slowdown in China and a bigger than-expected loss of momentum in the Euro Area. Also, traders will keep a close eye on the FOMC minutes release later in the day for further clues on the Fed's plans, although Chair Powell has been reinforcing that interest rates will need to rise further this year. Factory orders are also due today while the payrolls report will be released Friday. Materials, financials and industrial were the worst performing sectors. 12 days ago |
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Little Changed, FOMC Minutes Awaited | Government Bond 10Y | US 10-Year Treasury Yield Little Changed, FOMC Minutes AwaitedUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was around 3.8%, with investors focusing on the health of the global economy and prospects that the Fed and other major central banks will continue to tighten. The FOMC minutes release later today will be keenly watched for any further clues on the Fed's plans. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 86% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25bps this month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September currently stand at 19%. Later in the week, the payrolls report will provide further evidence on the labour market performance. 12 days ago |
US Futures Point to Lower Open | Stock Market | US Futures Point to Lower Open United States Stock MarketUS stock futures were lower on Wednesday, with contracts on the Dow Jones falling over 100 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down nearly 0.4%, as investors return from the Independence Day holiday to face concerns about the health of the global economy. The services PMI data pointed to a sharp slowdown in China and a bigger than-expected loss of momentum in the Euro Area. Also, traders will keep a close eye on the FOMC minutes release later in the day for further clues on the Fed's plans, although Chair Powell has been reinforcing that interest rates will need to rise further this year. Factory orders are also due today while the payrolls report will be released Friday. On the corporate front, Netflix rose 0.8% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the company's shares to neutral from sell12 days ago |
Dollar Muted Ahead of Fed Minutes | Currency | Dollar Muted Ahead of Fed MinutesUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index was little changed around 103.1 on Wednesday, remaining sideways so far this week as traders braced for the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes for more clues on the path for US interest rates. Markets are currently betting that the central bank will deliver another 25 basis point rate hike this month as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that further rate increases are likely ahead as it will take time to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. Meanwhile, ISM data released on Tuesday showed that US manufacturing activity for June contracted the most since May 2020 amid weakening demand. Investors now look ahead to the key monthly jobs report, JOLTS and ISM Services PMI data later this week for further clues on the economy.12 days ago |
US Futures Edge Lower on Wednesday | Stock Market | US Futures Edge Lower on WednesdayUnited States Stock MarketUS stock futures edged lower on Wednesday as trading resumes in a holiday-shortened week, with futures tied to the three major indexes all losing about 0.1%. Markets were closed on Tuesday for the Fourth of July holiday and closed early on Monday. The major averages notched gains during Monday’s session which kicked off the start of a new month, quarter and half-year for the market. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.21%, the S&P 500 rose 0.12% and the Dow inched up 0.03%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors finishing higher. Investors now look ahead to the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes on Wednesday for more clues on the path for interest rates, as well as May factory orders data.12 days ago |
Dollar Little Changed as Traders Weigh Economic Outlook | Currency | Dollar Little Changed as Traders Weigh Economic OutlookUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index was little changed around 103 on Tuesday, as investors weigh updates on the US economic performance and prospects the Fed will continue to tighten. The ISM Manufacturing PMI pointed to the sharpest contraction in factory activity since May 2020 while consumer spending released last week showed a big slowdown. The payrolls report, JOLTS and ISM Services PMI are also due this week. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting due Wednesday will be keenly watched for further clues on the Fed's next steps, with Chair Powell reinforcing last week that interest rates will continue to rise this year.14 days ago |
US Treasury Yields Fall after ISM PMI | Government Bond 10Y | US Treasury Yields Fall after ISM PMIUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note cut early gains to around 3.8% on the first trading day of the second half of the year, amid concerns about the health of the economy, after the ISM Manufacturing PMI pointed to the biggest contraction in factory activity in nearly three years. The payrolls report, JOLTS and ISM Services PMI are also due this week. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be keenly watched for further clues on the Fed's next steps, with Chair Powell reinforcing last week that interest rates will continue to rise this year. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 87% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25bps next month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 18% from 21% before the ISM release. Early on Monday, the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields hit -109.5 bps, the widest since 1981. Markets will close early Monday and be closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.14 days ago |
US Manufacturing PMI Confirmed at 6-Month Low: S&P Global | Manufacturing PMI | US Manufacturing PMI Confirmed at 6-Month Low: S&P GlobalUnited States Manufacturing PMIThe S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at a six-month low of 46.3 in June of 2023, pointing to a second successive monthly decline in the health of the manufacturing sector, amid a renewed fall in output and a sharp downturn in new orders, dragged down by suppressed demand due to inflationary pressure and higher interest rates. Despite a steep drop in backlogs of work, manufacturers still sought to replace voluntary leavers and fill long-held vacancies, meaning employment grew further. A dearth of new orders led firms to continue in their efforts to run down stocks with input buying also contracting markedly. On the price front, cost burdens fell at the fastest pace for over three years. Weak demand conditions, meanwhile, led to broadly unchanged output charges on the month as firms sought to attract new sales. Finally, business expectations were the lowest so far this year. 14 days ago |
Treasury Yields Edge Higher to Kick Off H2 2023 | Government Bond 10Y | Treasury Yields Edge Higher to Kick Off H2 2023United States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged higher to approach 3.86% on the first trading day of the second half of the year, as investors await further updates on the economic performance due this week, including the payrolls report and the ISM PMIs. Also, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be keenly watched for further clues on the Fed's next steps, with Chair Powell reinforcing last week that interest rates will continue to rise this year. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 87% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25bps next month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September currently stand at nearly 21%. Meanwhile, the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields hit -109.5 bps, the widest since 1981. Markets will close early Monday and be closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.14 days ago |
Tesla Shares Rally after Upbeat Results | Stock Market | Tesla Shares Rally after Upbeat ResultsUnited States Stock MarketContracts on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures were little changed while Nasdaq 100 futures added nearly 0.2% to kick off the second half of 2023, with shares of Tesla rallying nearly 7% in premarket trading. The electric car maker beat deliveries and production estimates for Q2, as the company increased production and offered some discounts to boost sales. In the first half of the year, the Nasdaq Composite rallied 31.7%, its biggest first-half increase in four decades, led by a rally in AI-related shares and bets the Fed is done with most of its rate hikes. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 15.9% and the Dow Jones added 3.8%. Wall Street will close early today and will be closed tomorrow for the Independence day holiday. 14 days ago |
Dollar Pressured by Soft Inflation Data | Currency | Dollar Pressured by Soft Inflation DataUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index held just below 103 on Monday after losing 0.4% in the previous session, weighed down by data showing US inflation slowed in May, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign is having its desired outcome. US consumer spending also decelerated sharply last month. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that further rate increases are likely ahead as it will take time to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. Markets are priced for an 84% chance that the central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points in its July meeting. Investors now look ahead to US manufacturing activity data on Monday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook, as well as the key monthly jobs report on Friday.14 days ago |
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised Higher | Consumer Confidence | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised HigherUnited States Consumer ConfidenceThe University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 64.4 in June of 2023, the highest in four months, from a preliminary of 63.9. Improvements were also seen in both current economic conditions (69 vs 68) and consumer expectations (61.5 vs 61.3). "Overall, this striking upswing reflects a recovery in attitudes generated by the early-month resolution of the debt ceiling crisis, along with more positive feelings over softening inflation. Views of their own personal financial situation were unchanged, however, as persistent high prices and expenses continued to weigh on consumers", Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said. Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the second consecutive month to 3.3%, the lowest since March 2021, and in line with the preliminary estimate. Long-run inflation expectations were little changed from May at 3%, also matching the initial reading.17 days ago |
Chicago PMI Disappoints | Chicago PMI | Chicago PMI DisappointsUnited States Chicago PMIThe Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, increased to 41.5 in June of 2023 from 40.4 points in May 2023, but well below market forecasts of 44. The reading marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region.17 days ago |
Dollar Falls Slightly as PCE Inflation Slows | Currency | Dollar Falls Slightly as PCE Inflation SlowsUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index was slightly lower around 103 on Friday, as investors digest slowing PCE inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts and below 0.4% in April. Also, the annual core rate slowed to 4.6% and the headline PCE rate reached the lowest in nearly two years. Early in the week, Chair Powell pledged that interest rates will rise again this year, and data including an upwardly revised GDP growth for Q1 pointed to a robust economy. Most traders still bet the Fed will deliver a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate in July, although the chances fell slightly to 87% from 89% before the PCE release. Also, the odds for another quarter-point hike in September eased to 21% from 25%. The dollar index gained nearly 0.5% on the second quarter.17 days ago |
US 10Y Bond Yield Down from Over 3-Month High as PCE Inflation Cools | Government Bond 10Y | US 10Y Bond Yield Down from Over 3-Month High as PCE Inflation CoolsUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell back below 3.85% on Friday, down from an over three-month high of 3.892 touched earlier in the session, after data showing a slowdown in PCE inflation offered fresh evidence of easing price pressures due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive policy tightening. The PCE price inflation cooled to 3.8% in May, the lowest since April 2021, while the core index edged down to 4.6%, still pointing to high cost pressures. At the same time, personal spending growth eased to a meager 0.1%. This data followed a batch of economic releases released earlier this week pointing to a robust economic performance and a solid labor market, which strengthened bets that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Chair Powell recently reinforced that interest rates will rise again this year, signaling the possibility of at least two more rate hikes.17 days ago |
US PCE Prices Rise at a Slower 0.1% | PCE Price Index Monthly Change | US PCE Prices Rise at a Slower 0.1%United States PCE Price Index Monthly ChangeThe personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States rose 0.1% month-over-month in May of 2023, below 0.4% in April. Prices for services increased 0.3% while goods cost went down 0.1%. Food prices increased 0.1% and energy sank 3.9%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Year-on-year, PCE prices increased 3.8%, the lowest reading since April of 2021, compared to a downwardly revised 4.3% advance in April and the core rate which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, increased 4.6%, compared to market expectations of 4.7%.17 days ago |
US Personal Income Slightly Beats Forecasts | Personal Income | US Personal Income Slightly Beats ForecastsUnited States Personal IncomePersonal income in the United States rose by 0.4% over a month in May of 2023, compared to a downwardly revised 0.3% rise in April, while analysts had expected it to rise 0.3%. The growth was driven by a 0.5% increase in compensation, namely private wages and salaries (+0.5%) and personal current transfer receipts (+0.3%), of which Medicaid payments. Personal income receipts on assets also went up (+0.3%), led by personal interest income (+0.5%).
17 days ago |
US Core PCE Prices Edge Higher as Expected | Core PCE Price Index MoM | US Core PCE Prices Edge Higher as ExpectedUnited States Core PCE Price Index MoMThe index measuring core personal consumption expenditure prices in the US, which excludes food and energy, matched market expectations and rose by 0.3% in May, easing from the 0.4% increase in the previous month. The yearly change, which is the Federal Reserve’s key gauge for inflation in the US economy, rose by 4.6%, edging lower from 4.7% in April. When including food and energy costs, the PCE price index edged 0.1% higher from the previous month and 3.8% higher from the corresponding period of the previous year, the smallest annual increase since April 2021.17 days ago |
US PCE Inflation Slows in May | PCE Price Index Annual Change | US PCE Inflation Slows in May United States PCE Price Index Annual ChangeThe personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased 3.8% year-on-year in May 2023, the lowest reading since April of 2021, compared to a downwardly revised 4.3% advance in April. Prices for goods increased 1.1% and prices for services rose 5.3%. Food cost went up 5.8% and energy prices decreased 13.4%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, increased 4.6% from one year ago, compared to market expectations of 4.7% and 4.7% in April. On a monthly basis, PCE prices rose 0.1% and the core index 0.3%. In June, the Fed projected PCE inflation for this year at 3.2% and core PCE inflation at 3.9%.17 days ago |
US 10-Year Bond Yield at Over 3-Month High | Government Bond 10Y | US 10-Year Bond Yield at Over 3-Month HighUnited States Government Bond 10YThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note approached 3.9% in the last day of June, back to high levels not seen since mid-March, as strong data for the US released this week continued to point to a robust economic performance, strengthening bets the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 2% compared to early estimates of 1.3%. Also, initial claims fell the most since October 2021, durable goods unexpectedly rose, the CB consumer confidence came much higher than expected and new home sales surged. This week, Chair Powell reinforced that interest rates will rise again this year, signalling two more rate hikes at least, and not excluding consecutive-meeting rate hikes. Traders are currently assigning a nearly 89% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25bps next month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September are rising, currently standing at nearly 25%. PCE inflation data due today will be the next big catalyst.17 days ago |
US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 16-week High | Government Bond 10Y | US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 16-week HighUnited States Government Bond 10YUS 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 16-week high of 3.8681%17 days ago |
Dollar Heads for Second Weekly Advance | Currency | Dollar Heads for Second Weekly AdvanceUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index held above 103 on Friday and was set to advance for the second consecutive week amid further signs the US economy remains resilient, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. US GDP growth for the first quarter was revised sharply higher to 2% from 1.3%, coming in above the 1.4% previous estimate. Initial jobless claims also unexpectedly dropped last week, while consumer confidence hit a nearly 1-1/2-year high in June. Moreover, results from Fed’s annual stress tests showed the 23 biggest banks in the US are well positioned to weather a severe recession. Markets are currently assigning a nearly 87% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September are rising.17 days ago |
US Futures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Data | Stock Market | US Futures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation DataUnited States Stock MarketUS stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors look ahead to the latest personal consumption expenditures data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Futures contracts tied to the three major averages were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.8% and 0.45%, respectively, as major banks rallied after passing the Fed’s annual stress test. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was flat as technology stocks ended mixed on Thursday. Investors also reacted to an upward revision in US first quarter GDP data from 1.3% to 2%, as well as an unexpected decline in initial jobless claims last week, supporting the case for further policy tightening. Friday marks a pivotal day for the market, with the three major indexes all set to end the month, the second quarter and the first half in positive territory.17 days ago |
US Mortgage Rates Rebound in End of June | 30 Year Mortgage Rate | US Mortgage Rates Rebound in End of JuneUnited States 30 Year Mortgage RateThe average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 4 basis points from the previous week to 6.71% as of June 29th, according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The result halted three consecutive weekly decreases, reapproaching the six-month high of 6.79% touched at the end of May. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.7%. “Mortgage rates have hovered in the six to seven percent range for over six months and, despite affordability headwinds, homebuyers have adjusted and driven new home sales to its highest level in more than a year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “New home sales have rebounded more robustly than the resale market due to a marginally greater supply of new construction. The improved demand has led to a firming of prices, which have now increased for several months in a row.”
18 days ago |
US Natural Gas Stocks Rise Less than Expected: EIA | Natural Gas Stocks Change | US Natural Gas Stocks Rise Less than Expected: EIAUnited States Natural Gas Stocks ChangeUS utilities added 76 billion cubic feet of gas into storage to 2,729 billion during the week ended June 23rd, 2023, slightly below expectations of an 82 billion cubic feet increase. The result marks a 490 billion cubic feet increase from the corresponding period of the previous year, and is 262 billion cubic feet above the five-year average from 2018 to 2022.18 days ago |
Coca-Cola Hits 4-week Low | stocks | Coca-Cola Hits 4-week LowUnited States stocksCoca-Cola decreased to a 4-week low of 59.7718 days ago |
Apple Hits All-time High | stocks | Apple Hits All-time HighUnited States stocksApple increased to an all-time high of 189.9118 days ago |
Visa Hits 5-week High | stocks | Visa Hits 5-week HighUnited States stocksVisa increased to a 5-week high of 230.4618 days ago |
Walt Disney Hits 4-week Low | stocks | Walt Disney Hits 4-week LowUnited States stocksWalt Disney decreased to a 4-week low of 87.5918 days ago |
Paychex earnings meet market expectations at 0.97 USD | Earnings | Paychex earnings meet market expectations at 0.97 USDUnited States EarningsPaychex (PAYX) released earnings per share at 0.97 USD, in line with market expectations.18 days ago |
Dollar at 2-Week High | Currency | Dollar at 2-Week HighUnited States CurrencyThe dollar index strengthened to 103.3 on Thursday, approaching high levels not seen in nearly two weeks, amid further signs the US economy remains resilient, strengthening the case for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates, in line with recent signs from Chair Powell. US GDP growth for Q1 was revised sharply higher to 2% from 1.3%, initial claims unexpectedly dropped last week and consumer confidence hit a nearly 1-1/2-year high. At the same time, results from Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests showed the 23 biggest banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession. Meanwhile, traders are currently assigning a nearly 87% chance the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 25bps next month and the odds for another quarter-point hike in September are rising, and currently stand at nearly 23%.18 days ago |
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