At the same time, despite potential for increased productivity, agricultural output in expected to be more limited, growing broadly in line with trends over the past decade.MALAWIâS UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION IX A detailed assessment of identified GHG mitigation options for Malawi estimates a total emissions reduction potential of around 17.7 million tCO2 e in 2040 against the BAU scenario emissions in the same year of 34.6 million tCO2 e, equivalent to a reduction of 51 per cent. Based on the analysis, mitigation measures have been grouped according to two different contributions: Unconditional contribution: A reduction of 6 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2040; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2 e) in that year.