PESSIMISM MOUNTS OVER BAHIAN TEMPORAO COCOA CROP

  Pessimism over the effects of a
  prolonged dry spell on the coming Bahian temporao cocoa crop is
  rising with trade forecasts generally in the 2.0 mln to 2.5 mln
  bag range against 2.5 mln to 3.0 mln a fortnight ago.
      Trade sources told Reuters from the state capital of
  Salvador that despite scattered rains since mid-February, which
  broke a six week drought, plantations have not picked up as
  hoped and very little cocoa is expected to be gathered in the
  first three months of the May/September crop.
      The sources said arrivals from May through July might only
  reach around 600,000 bags whereas in normal years a figure of
  1.0 mln to 1.5 mln bags might be expected.
      Arrivals from then should start to pick up sharply as pods
  from current flowering are gathered. However, the sources noted
  a late temporao is always more susceptible to pod rot, which
  flourishes if conditions turn cold and humid, and which is more
  likely from late July on.
      This year's crop is doubly susceptible because poor prices
  mean farmers were not encouraged to invest in fertilisers and
  insecticides and are also unlikely to treat against pod rot.
      A severe attack of pod rot can cause the loss of over
  500,000 bags in a very short period, one source said.
      Because of the increased exposure to pod rot damage,
  estimates of the final outcome of the temporao are extremely
  vulnerable and production could easily drop to below the 2.0
  mln bag mark if the disease hits.
      Although flowering was good following the start of the
  rains, pod setting was not up to expectations, possibly because
  the drought had caused a drop in the insect population which
  pollinates flowers, the sources said.
      However, reports from farms indicate moisture levels are
  now generally back to near normal levels and that current
  flowering and pod setting is good, which should result in
  mature fruit from August through September.
      The sources said they expect no break in the harvesting of
  beans between the end of the temporao and the beginning of the
  main crop, which officially starts on October 1.
      "The cut-off date is completely artificial. If things go
  well from now on we should see heavy harvesting without a break
  from August through November or even December," one said.
      If predictions of a 2.0 to 2.5 mln bag temporao prove
  accurate this would be below the 2.7 mln bag average for the
  past 10 years. The last poor temporao was in 1984 when
  prolonged drought and later pod rot cut production to 1.79 mln
  bags, the lowest since 1974.
      Good growing conditions the following year produced a
  temporao of 3.12 mln bags, just below the 1983 3.17 mln bag
  record, while last year's output, which also suffered some
  drought damage, was 2.77 mln bags.
      Figures for the coming temporao might be distorted upwards
  by the inclusion of undeclared current main crop beans.
      The sources said large quantities of beans are believed to
  have been undeclared from this year's record total harvest and
  they were unsure how much of this would be unregistered by the
  end of the official crop year on April 30.
      Recent official arrivals figures have been swollen by the
  inclusion of beans which had been delivered previously to port
  warehouses but not declared.
      Because of the high turnover of beans this year,
  significant amounts have deteriorated because they were stored
  too long at the back of warehouses. Some of these are expected
  to be held for mixing in with early temporao arrivals.
      With official arrivals figures for the 1986/87 temporao and
  main crops totalling over 6.1 mln bags, and over seven weeks
  still to go to the end of the year, the total outturn should be
  at least a record 6.5 mln bags if all production is declared,
  the sources said.
      This would compare with the previous record set last year
  of 6.03 mln.
      However, there is no way of telling how many current crop
  beans will be declared after the May 1 start of the temporao
  and thus the true size of the 1986/87 harvest may never be
  officially registered.
  

