GRAIN REPORTS IMPROVE U.S. FARM OUTLOOK-ANALYSTS

  The U.S. grain planting intentions and
  stocks reports bear optimistic news for U.S agriculture, a
  grain analyst on a Chicago Board of Trade panel said.
      The decline in intended soybean acreage and lower stocks
  are "the first report we've had for a long time that shows any
  optimism for anybody," said John "Bud" Frazier, grain analyst
  and executive vice president for Balfour MacLaine, Inc.
      "I'm really excited about it," Frazier said.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture said farmers intend to
  plant 67.6 mln acres of corn, down from 76.7 mln planted last
  year, and 56.8 mln acres of soybeans, down from 61.5 mln.
      The report showed March 1 stocks of 1.4 billion bushels of
  soybeans, 8.3 billion bushels of corn, and 2.3 billion bushels
  of wheat, all below trade guesses.
      Frazier was joined by Susan Hackmann, senior grain analyst
  with AgriAnalysis, and Mark Meyer, a grain analyst with
  Shearson Lehman Brothers, Inc., on a Chicago Board of Trade
  panel to discuss the reports.
      Frazier said the stocks reports in particular were friendly
  for the market, and soybean prices would jump three to five
  cents a bushel "if the bell rang right now."
      "We're getting our disappearance up. We have less (corn and
  soybeans) than we thought we had," he said, noting that hog and
  poultry production is up.
      "We're seeing low prices generate some interest in demand,"
  said Meyer, adding that feed use was up 13 pct last quarter and
  15 pct in the preceding quarter.
      However, Hackmann said production could continue to exceed
  consumption.
      She noted that most of the reductions in soybean acres came
  in southeastern states, where yields are usually low.
      "We have the potential for record breaking soybean yields
  this year, (which) will temper the enthusiasm on tomorrow's
  opening," she said.
      Hackmann said record corn yields also are possible, and the
  crop could reach 7.1 billion bushels, which would be down from
  last year's 8.25 billion bushels.
      "We'll need very good disappearance next year to reduce
  stocks," she said. The USDA estimated disappearance last year
  at 6.7 billion bushels.
      Hackmann said the stocks report was positive for the long
  term, "But we still have a long way to go to bring stocks down
  to where we could start rebuilding prices."
      Frazier also cautioned that the soybean acreage report
  could prompt farmers to change their plans and plant more
  soybeans.
      The panelists agreed that the reports should discourage
  talk of revising the 1985 farm bill.
      "There seems to be no desire ... to change the farm law
  we're working under today, and this report should reinforce
  that," Frazier said.
      "We are seeing the program beginning to work," said Meyer.
  

