ANALYST SAYS USSR WINTER GRAINS HURT BY WEATHER

  The Soviet Union's winter grain
  crop is likely to have suffered losses due to dry planting
  conditions last fall and severe cold this winter, an analyst of
  world weather and crop conditions said.
      Grain analyst and meteorologist Gail Martell, author of the
  EF Hutton publication "Global Crop News," said in her latest
  report that the Soviets may import more grain, possibly wheat,
  from the U.S. due to potential crop damage.
      "Compared with last year, the outlook (for the Soviet
  winter grain crop) is far more pessimistic," she said. "But
  it's still too early to talk about disastrous losses. A lot
  will depend on spring weather, not only for the outcome of the
  troubled winter grain crop, but also for spring planting."
      Martell said the dry weather conditions last fall probably
  prevented optimal seed germination for winter grains. Key wheat
  growing areas of the southern Ukraine and North Caucasus
  received on 25-35 pct of autumn precipitation, she said.
      The bitter winter cold temperatures -- which broke record
  lows that had stood for four decades -- also may have taken its
  toll on Soviet winter crops, she said.
      However, she noted that most of the southern grain belt had
  ample snow cover, which should have well-insulated the majority
  of crop areas from severe frost damage.
      The USSR has already bought 20 to 21 mln tonnes of grains
  in the July 1986/June 1987 marketing year, primarily from
  Canada, the European Community, Argentina and Australia,
  Martell said.
      She cited a number of reasons besides possible crop
  problems that might point to additional Soviet import demand.
      Last fall's dry weather may limit livestock grazing on
  moisture-depleted pastures, while the cold winter weather
  necessitated supplemental feeding to keep livestock healthy.
      Martell was also skeptical of a Soviet claim for a 1986
  grain harvest of 210 mln tonnes, and said the Chernobyl
  accident may have contaminated more grain than originally
  thought and have to be made up with imports.
      However, she said the U.S. remains a supplier of last
  resort for the Soviet Union, noting that the Soviets have only
  just recently begun their first U.S. grain purchases of the
  1986/87 season by buying 2.25 mln tonnes of corn.
      Martell cited USDA statistics showing that since the 1980
  grain embargo the U.S. is only a major supplier of grain to the
  USSR during years of heavy Soviet demand.
      In 1984/85, the U.S. supplied 41 pct of record Soviet grain
  imports of 55.5 mln tonnes. But in 1985/86, the Soviet Union
  bought 29.9 mln tonnes of grain and turned to the U.S. for only
  24 pct of that total.
      While the USDA Soviet import target for grain for 1986/87
  was 22 mln tonnes, many U.S. grain analysts have revised their
  estimates of Soviet imports up to 25-28 mln tonnes, she said.
  

