TRADERS SAY USDA MAY LOWER ORANGE CROP ESTIMATE

  The U.S. Department of Agriculture will
  probably decrease its estimate of the 1986/87 Florida orange
  crop today to as low as 123 mln boxes from 129 mln boxes,
  analysts and industry sources said.
      The Department is scheduled to release the new estimate at
  1500 hrs EST (2100 gmt) today.
      Analysts said the market is anticipating a downward
  revision and much of the bullish impact has been discounted.
      The estimate, which the USDA has left unchanged since
  October, should be affected this time by recent evidence of a
  shortfall in the early and midseason crop now that those
  harvests are complete. Analysts said based on earlier USDA
  projections, the harvests should have been five to seven mln
  boxes larger than they were.
      "They are going to cut their estimate," said Bob Tate, an
  FCOJ broker with Dean Witter Reynolds in Miami. "The only
  question is whether they will admit the whole thing in this
  estimate."
      Tate said it is possible the USDA will lower its estimate
  by a lesser amount, perhaps three mln boxes, and continue to
  drop the estimate in subsequent reports as the crop picture
  clarifies. The late season harvest, consisting mostly of
  Valencia oranges, has not yet started, he noted.
      "They'll temper it," said Judy Weissman, FCOJ analyst with
  Shearson Lehman Bros. "The main drop will probably come in
  July."
      She expects today's estimate will be 126 mln boxes.
  

