U.S. CORN MARKET SKEWED BY SOVIET BUYING

  Recent purchases of U.S. corn by the
  Soviet Union have skewed the domestic cash market by increasing
  the price difference between the premium price paid at the Gulf
  export point and interior levels, cash grain dealers said.
      Many dealers expect the USDA will act soon to reduce the
  cash price premium at the Gulf versus the interior -- which a
  dealer in Davenport, Iowa, said was roughly 20 pct wider than
  normal for this time of year at 25 cents a bushel -- by making
  it worthwhile for farmers to move grain.
      By lowering ASCS county posted prices for corn, the USDA
  could encourage farmers to engage in PIK and roll corn sales,
  where PIK certificates are used to redeem corn stored under the
  government price support loan program and then marketed.
      If the USDA acts soon, as many dealers expect, the movement
  would break the Gulf corn basis.
      "The USDA has been using the Gulf price to determine county
  posted prices," one dealer said. "It should be taking the
  average of the Gulf price and the price in Kansas City," which
  would more closely reflect the lower prices in the interior
  Midwest.
      "But we don't know when they might do it," an Ohio dealer
  said, which has created uncertainty in the market.
      The USDA started the PIK certificate program in an effort
  to free up surplus grain that otherwise would be forfeited to
  the government and remain off the market and in storage.
      Yesterday, USDA issued a report showing that only slightly
  more than 50 pct of the 3.85 billion dlrs in PIK certificates
  it has issued to farmers (in lieu of cash payments) had to date
  been exchanged for grain.
      With several billion dlrs worth of additional PIK
  certificates scheduled to be issued in the coming months, the
  USDA would be well advised to encourage the exchange for grain
  by adjusting the ASCS prices, cash grain dealers said.
      A byproduct of the Soviet buying has been a sharp rise in
  barge freight costs quoted for carrying grain from the Midwest
  to the export terminals, cash dealers said.
      Freight from upper areas of the Mississippi have risen
  nearly 50 pct in the past two weeks to over 150 pct of the
  original tariff price. The mild winter and early reopening of
  the mid-Mississippi river this spring have also encouraged the
  firmer trend in barge freight, dealers noted.
      The higher transportation costs have served to depress
  interior corn basis levels, squeezing the margins obtained by
  the elevators feeding the Gulf export market as well as
  discouraging farmer marketings, they said.
      "The Gulf market overreacted to the Soviet buying reports,"
  which indicate the USSR has booked over two and perhaps as much
  as 4.0 mln tonnes of U.S. corn, one Midwest cash grain trader
  said.
      But dealers anticipate that once the rumors subside,
  freight rates will settle back down because of the overall
  surplus of barges on the Midwest river system.
  

