TRADERS CUT BAHIA TEMPORAO COCOA CROP ESTIMATE

  Trade estimates of the coming
  May/September temporao harvest in Brazil's main cocoa growing
  state of Bahia are now in the 1.5 mln to 2.0 mln 60-kilo bag
  range against 2.0 mln to 2.5 mln two weeks ago.
      Traders in the state capital Salvador told Reuters the
  effects of a dry period in the first six weeks of the year had
  been harsher than thought earlier.
      Although good flowering had followed the onset of rains in
  mid-February subsequent pod setting was dissappointing.
      Last year's temporao, also hit by a dry spell, was 2.77 mln
  bags. In 1984 severe drought cut the crop to 1.79 mln bags.
      The traders said another factor leading to lower crop
  predictions is that many farmers are not caring properly for
  plantations because of low returns on their investment.
      Manpower, fertiliser and other costs have been cut back as
  farmers feel the pinch of the rise in interest rates over the
  past six months coupled with low bean prices.
      If such economies continue into the winter months both the
  temporao and the developing October/April main crop could face
  serious damage from pod rot attacks on trees which would
  normally be treated against the disease.
      Recent very wet weather has already caused some isolated
  incidences of pod rot but reports from the growing regions say
  these are not yet significant.
      The traders said they expect very low deliveries of
  temporao beans in the first three months of the harvest and the
  bulk will not appear until the last month, September.
      Despite the low loads, trees are said to be in excellent
  condition and recent flowering and pod setting - which will
  lead to late temporao/early main crop beans - has been good.
  

