CONCERN OVER "EL NINO" IN PERU - USDA REPORT

  There are heightened fears that "El
  Nino" may be returning to Peru with an intensity approaching the
  1983 disaster, which affected the weather on several continents
  and caused widespread damage through floods and drought, the
  U.S. Agriculture Department's officer in Lima said in a field
  report.
      Continued heavy rains in the northern coastal area,
  flooding of several major rivers and mud slides have led to
  increased concern, the report, dated March 17, said.
      However, it said official sources still believe that this
  year's El Nino will have only weak to moderate intensity.
      EL Nino is a phenomenon involving a shift in winds and
  waters in the pacific.
      The USDA report said that so far the El Nino now being
  experienced has not had an overall negative impact on
  agricultural production.
      Excessive rains in the Piura Pima cotton area may reduce
  yields by about 20 pct due to excessive growth too early in the
  crop cycle.
      Also insect damage to crops could be more extensive where
  excessive moisture exists, it said.
      However, the El Nino has resulted in a much improved supply
  of irrigation water in the major dams which will improve
  prospects for many crucial crops such as rice and corn, and
  slow the decline in sugar production, it said.
      If El Nino picks up momentum, Peru's fishing industry could
  receive a setback. But trade sources still believe the fish
  catch for industrial processing will reach 5.5 mln tonnes in
  1987, almost 20 pct above last year, the report said.
      Water temperatures in the northern fishing areas are three
  to four degrees centigrade above normal but still not high
  enough to drive the fish to cooler southern waters, it said.
      It said there is still the outside chance that El Nino will
  intensify and carry on through late March, April and May
  causing problems as crops approach harvest.
      "There appears to be no way to project the course of El Nino
  -- only time will tell," the report said.
  

