AUSTRALIAN WHEAT AREA TO FALL, FORECASTER SAYS

  Australian wheat plantings are
  forecast to fall to 10.40 mln hectares in 1987/88 from 11.72
  mln sown in 1986/87, Australian Wheat Forecasters Pty Ltd (AWF)
  said in its first preliminary crop forecast.
      But there was no reason to expect Australian production in
  1987/88 would be less than the 16.5 mln tonnes of last year,
  the private forecaster said, as crops in New South Wales and
  Queensland suffered from poor yields last season.
      Most of the fall in plantings was expected in Western
  Australia while state average yields would be assisted by
  growers sowing wheat on fallows and rest paddocks, it said.
      The main reason for a low Western Australia estimate was a
  poor profit outlook under cost, credit and yield pressures. But
  in the eastern states the wheat area should hold up provided
  that rainfall between now and June is not less than average,
  AWF said.
      Although some farmers were saying they intended to cut back
  wheat area by 20 pct, AWF said this was unlikely since they
  needed cash flow and there were problems with alternative
  crops.
      "The lack of statutory marketing for oilseeds, pulses and
  oats is a cause for concern if those crops are to comprise a
  high proportion of growers' income," AWF said.
      AWF's state area forecasts in mln hectares, with 1986/87
  production in mln tonnes, are as follows (crop forecasts were
  not given for the new wheat year)
                     Area         Crop
               1987/88  1986/87  1986/87
   Queensland    0.82     0.82     0.95
   N.S.W.        3.07     3.17     4.40
   Victoria      1.53     1.63     3.25
   S.Australia   1.45     1.64     2.30
   W.Australia   3.53     4.46     5.60
  

