IWC LIFTS WORLD GRAIN OUTPUT ESTIMATE TO RECORD

  The International Wheat Council (IWC)
  lifted its estimate for 1986/87 world wheat and coarse grain
  production by one mln tonnes to a record 1,377 mln, compared
  with 1,351 mln tonnes the previous season.
      In its monthly market report, the IWC said it is leaving
  unchanged its forecast of world wheat production for the coming
  1987/88 season at between 520 and 530 mln tonnes against a
  record 534 mln in 1986/87. The one mln tonne upward revision in
  1986/87 wheat production reflects several minor adjustments.
  The IWC raised the 1986/87 coarse grain trade figure two mln to
  87 mln tonnes. It left wheat trade unchanged at 86 mln.
      The IWC 1986/87 estimate for world trade in wheat and
  coarse grain is thus estimated two mln tonnes higher at 173 mln
  against 169 mln the previous season with the forecast three mln
  rise in Soviet imports offset by small reductions elsewhere.
      The IWC said the area harvested for wheat in 1987/88 is
  likely to be down from last year as low world prices and
  restrictive national policies measures begin to take effect.
      At least four of the five major exporters expect to see a
  drop in wheat sowings without offset in other countries. There
  is still potential for even higher average wheat yields but the
  IWC said there are increasing signs world output may level off.
      Although it is still early to assess the coarse grain
  outlook, the IWC said barley acreage is likely to fall in the
  European Community but increase in Canada. U.S. Maize area is
  expected lower but oat sowings could rise.
      After damage to its maize crop last year, the Soviet Union
  plans to expand this area by as much as 50 pct to over six mln
  hectares in a year when many frost damaged wheat fields are
  likely to be resown to this and other spring crops. Improved
  weather and a further increase in the use of intensive
  cultivation methods could therefore see a marked rise in Soviet
  maize output in 1987, the IWC said.
      Any reduction in world coarse grain output would be
  bolstered by the large carryover stocks from 1986/87, the IWC
  said.
      It left its estimates of wheat and coarse grain stocks at
  endof different marketing years unchanged at 178 and 210 mln
  tonnes, respectively, against 160 and 167 mln a year earlier.
      After record world durum wheat production of 218.8 mln
  tonnes last season, the IWC said there are already signs of
  another large crop this coming season with higher output
  expected in the EC, Canada, the U.S. And North Africa.
  

