BANK SEES MODEST RECOVERY IN GULF ARAB ECONOMIES

  The Emirates Industrial Bank has
  predicted a modest economic recovery in the Gulf Arab states
  following higher oil revenues.
      A bank study, carried by the Emirates news agency WAM, said
  total oil revenues of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
  countries were likely to reach 39 billion dlrs this year from
  33.5 billion in 1986.
      The GCC groups Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
  and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
      The bank said the improvement would result from higher oil
  prices made possible by last December's OPEC accord to restrain
  overall group production.
      These curbs have pushed up oil prices from around eight
  dollars a barrel in mid-1986 to around 18 dlrs.
      "All signs point to the possibility of a modest recovery in
  the economies of these (GCC) countries, although this expected
  growth will not be similar to that of the (1970s) boom years,"
  the study said.
      It added, however, that GCC states would experience higher
  budget deficits this year because of needs arising from past
  recession and the difficulty of making fresh spending cuts.
      The study said the combined GCC bugdet deficits would rise
  to 23.2 billion dlrs from 17.9 billion last year.
      It said lower oil exports cut the GCC states' combined
  trade surplus to 18 billion dlrs in 1986 from 21.5 billion in
  1985.
      The UAE suffered a 19.5 pct drop in gross domestic product
  to 77.6 billion dirhams last year from 96.4 billion in 1985, it
  added.
  

