PAKISTAN NOT SEEN AS MAJOR WHEAT EXPORTER

  Pakistan is not emerging as a major
  wheat exporter as world market prospects are not good enough,
  Sartaj Aziz, Special Assistant on Food and Agriculture to the
  Pakistani Prime Minister, said in an interview.
      No exports are planned for the next 12 months or so and
  plans last year to sell one mln tonnes to Iran came to nothing
  because they could not agree a price, he said.
      Aziz forecast that Pakistan may have exportable surpluses
  of one mln tonnes or a half mln tonnes over the next few
  harvests in years when the weather is favourable.
      The government does not wish to increase output much above
  this because of low world prices, and the land would be better
  used for other crops.
      Aziz said the Pakistani government does not want area sown
  to wheat to increase from the current seven mln hectares. Some
  10 pct of that area which gives low yields could be switched to
  more profitable crops such as oilseeds.
      The aim is to concentrate on raising yields from the
  current 1.8 to 1.9 tonnes per ha to at least 2.5 tonnes per ha
  over the next five to seven years, he said.
      Aziz said the current 1986/87 crop, harvesting of which is
  just beginning, is expected to yield around a record 14.5 mln
  tonnes. This compares with a target of 14.7 mln and last year's
  yield of 14.0 mln.
      He said rains some six weeks ago helped the crop but more
  recent rains reduced prospects slightly.
      The long-term wheat production target is for some 17 mln
  tonnes by mid-1993, taking into account Pakistan's annual
  population growth rate of more than three pct. Current
  consumption is some 12.5 mln tonnes.
      The current wheat reserve is 2.5 mln tonnes, Aziz said.
  This compares with a minimum reserve commitment of one mln
  tonnes, which Pakistan will maintain at all costs, and a
  "strategic reserve" target of two mln tonnes.
      Despite the fact that stocks are a half-mln tonnes over
  target, the surplus will not be exported at present, he said.
      The government wants to keep an extra "safety margin" until
  it sees what effect the abolition of a 44-year-old wheat
  rationing system will have on domestic consumption. New exports
  will be considered only in about a year's time when the 1987/88
  crop can be gauged as well, he said.
      The new domestic policy, introduced on March 15, is for the
  government to supply unlimited quantities of wheat at two
  rupees per kilo. With other costs this means a price in
  Pakistani markets of between 2.30 and 2.50 rupees per kilo.
      Under the old system, introduced during World War Two and
  due to be phased out by April 15, some 50 mln ration cards were
  issued enabling poor people to buy wheat cheaply.
      Aziz said following the introduction of a government
  support price in the 1970s the system become so corrupted that
  only 20 to 25 pct of subsidised wheat was actually reaching the
  consumer, the rest being diverted illicitly to the mills.
      The ration system had also not had the stabilising effect
  on the internal wheat market that was intended, Aziz said.
      Prices have already begun to fall with the introduction of
  the new system. The wheat price in Karachi, the most expensive
  Pakistani city, had dropped from 3.11 rupees per kilo on March
  1 to 2.85 rupees on March 30.
      Aziz said he does not expect the change in system to have a
  major effect on total consumption, but it may encourage better
  use of side-products such as bran.
  

