While Lagarde and Juncker go at it in the policymaker equivalent of hammer and tongs over timetables, there's a risk here of people forgetting the numbers involved. Consider these two tables from David Mackie at JP Morgan. Click to enlarge. The first table shows the projected mending of Greece's finances as envisaged at the time of the second programme back in the spring: Greek debt-to-GDP would come down to 120 per cent by 2020. The second table shows the projected un-mending of Greece's finances based on current information: Greek debt-to-GDP rises to 156 per cent by 2020. Mackie explains that this is after including the "stock-flow adjustment" included in the EC's autumn forecast, whereby Greece's debt stock this year is assumed to be 16 percentage points higher than was estimated back in the spring. The JP Morgan economist is not sure what this additional stock-flow adjustment actually is. But he's sure of one thing: OSI needs to be part of any solution. In fact the need for official sector restructuring is pretty much consensus now. Take Themistoklis Fiotakis at G0ldman Sachs: Solutions Currently Discussed May Not Be Enough Solutions currently under discussion (and seen as politically feasible) - such as: (1) lowering interest rates on bilateral loans; (2) offering undisbursed profits from National Central Banks" GGB holdings to member states to improve the conditions on loans to Greece; and (3) a buy-back program for restructured PSI bonds - are not sufficient to ensure debt sustainability (as defined by policy makers). Ultimate Resolution Likely to Be Further Postponed To increase the likelihood that the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio approaches its 120% by 2020 target under realistic assumptions, a much more drastic debt stock reduction (possibly north of EUR80bn in total) will be required. This seems politically infeasible at present. We think a more likely outcome will involve some debt relief, continued official sector funding (in large part financing Greek redemptions and interest payments to the official sector itself), and a continued uncertain Greek debt profile. This uncertainty will hold back a Greek recovery relative to a more decisive write-off and postpone a resolution of the Greek debt issues. More from Fiotakis in the usual place. Related link: In Greece, Antonis Sisyphus took another painful step forward - FT Alphaville