Video: OBR: Economy running 3pc below full capacity The independent fiscal body which produces forecasts that underpin the government's economic policy, predicted a 0.1 per cent fall in GDP in the fourth quarter followed by growth of 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2013. In March, it had expected growth of 0.3 per cent in the final three months of this year. It has also cut longer-term forecasts sharply. The economy will grow 1.2 per cent next year and 2.0 per cent in 2014, while 2015 and 2016 forecasts were revised down to 2.3 and 2.7 per cent respectively.