CFT's Predictions 101: Bowl picks By John Tamanaha updated 3:50 a.m. NEW MEXICO BOWL Nevada vs. Arizona Sat., Dec. 15 - 1 p.m. ET, ESPN Albuquerque, N.M. - University Stadium After studying each other for a couple weeks, we wouldn't be surprised if the Wolf Pack and Wildcats were tempted to borrow some of each other's stuff. Innovation is the name of the game for Chris Ault's pistol and Rich Rodriquez's spread. Why not mix in a little adaptation? Maybe not for this game, but next year perhaps. Not only do Nevada (7-5) and Arizona (7-5) have identical records, they also have nearly identical stats. The Wolf Pack are averaging 37.0 points per game, just a shade behind the Wildcats" 37.3. Obviously scoring isn't a problem for both squads, but their margin for error is razor thin. Defensively, Nevada is allowing 32.5 points per game (94th in the country), while Arizona yields 34.3 (100th). Yikes. The early over/under is hovering around 75, but we wouldn't be surprised if the actual total ends up closer to 100, as two of the nation's most productive running backs go toe-to-toe. Wolf Pack junior Stefphon Jefferson rushed for 1,703 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. Again, that's eerily similar to Wildcat sophomore Ka'Deem Carey, who ran for 1,757 and 20 scores. If it weren't impossible, we'd be tempted to call for a tie. Instead, we'll side with Arizona and hope that their rollercoaster ride is headed in the right direction after the finale failure versus Arizona State. And it would be silly to rely on a Wolf Pack squad that's dropped four of its last five. Opening point spread: Arizona by 7 1/2 The pick: Arizona 52-37 18 Utah State vs. Toledo Sat., Dec. 15 - 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Boise, Idaho - Bronco Stadium Shopping at the mall? You'll be sorry. This is a nice matchup on the blue turf. Utah State (10-2) had 10 wins for the first time in school history, winning the WAC title and going unbeaten in the league. The Aggies lost only to Wisconsin (16-14) and BYU (6-3). Since then, though, the Aggies have won six straight, scoring 38 points or more each time. Meanwhile, Toledo (9-3) won eight straight at one point, highlighted by a 29-23 upset of Cincinnati, even though the Rockets failed to score an offensive touchdown. If last season's bowl results are any indication, it could be a classic. Toledo defeated Air Force 42-41 at the Military Bowl after halting a fake extra-point kick with 52 seconds remaining. Utah State fell against Ohio 24-23 in this very same Potato Bowl, when Bobcats quarterback Tyler Tettleton scored on a 1-yard run with 13 seconds remaining. The Rockets will have no answer for Aggies quarterback Chuckie Keeton. Hey, Utah State. This season, this spud's for you. Opening point spread: Utah State by 7 1/2 The pick: Utah State 35, Toledo 24 BYU vs. San Diego State Thurs., Dec. 20 - 8 p.m. San Diego - Qualcomm Stadium The Aztecs are going bowling in their own yard as they "host" the Cougars, who were previously one of their longtime conference rivals. San Diego State (9-3), a slight underdog at home, might need to be reminded that this is in fact a bowl game. At least BYU (7-5) will appreciate the good weather. These teams had three common opponents this year. They both hammered Hawai'i and lost to San Jose State. The outcomes against Boise State were varied. The Aztecs beat the Broncos, but 14 of their points came on returns. Those are great, but aren't offense you can really count on. The Cougars" game on the blue turf was a defensive battle throughout, as Boise's defense scored its only points. We have to go with the more battle tested BYU bunch. With experience against Utah, Boise State, Utah State, Oregon State and Notre Dame under their belts the Cougars have seen and done more this year. BYU's defense (second against the run, third in total defense and fifth in points allowed) will keep the Aztecs out of the end zone. The Cougars" Christmas present to San Diego fans? How about a bunch of doughnuts on their scoreboard? Opening point spread: BYU by 2 1/2 The pick: BYU 27-6 Central Florida vs. Ball State Fri., Dec. 21 - 7:30 p.m. St. Petersburg, Fla. - Tropicana Field Nothing says pre-Christmas bowl season like Conference USA vs. the MAC in a baseball stadium. At least Tropicana Field should be full. That's usually a struggle for the Tampa Bay Rays during the summer. Central Florida (9-4) will be playing about 120 miles from its campus, so expect the Knights to be well-represented. Without a pair of defeats against Tulsa - 23-21 during the regular season, 33-27 in overtime during the C-USA title game - the Knights would really have something special. Ball State (9-3) does have something special. The Cardinals enter with a six-game winning streak. They have scored 30 or more points in 10 of 12 games. Remember this name: Pete Lembo. He's the fast-rising BallState coach - and he might not be in Muncie many more seasons. Ball State is ultra-sound on offense with precise quarterback Keith Wenning, powerful runner Jahwan Edwards (1,321 yards, 6.1-yard average, 14 TDs) and game-breaking receiver Willie Snead (82 catches). It says here Ball State has never won a bowl game (0-5). That's about to change. Opening point spread Central Florida by 7 The pick: Ball State 34, Central Florida 30 East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette New Orleans - Louisiana Superdome Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4) has a difficult act to follow. In last season's New Orleans Bowl, the school's first-ever bowl appearance, the Ragin" Cajuns defeated San Diego State 32-30 on Brett Baer's 50-yard field goal as time expired. Whew! OK, every bowl isn't like that, Cajuns. The second time around might be more of a struggle. The Cajuns steadied the ship after a 1-3 midseason slump, including a heartbreaking 27-20 loss at Florida when the Gators won on a blocked punt return with two seconds remaining, and made sure last season's bowl trip wasn't a novelty. East Carolina (8-4) mounted a rally of its own, winning five of its last six games, including an insane 65-59 double-overtime victory against Marshall, the most points the Pirates have scored in 31 years. Let's go with the hot hand, which belongs to slinging sophomore quarterback Shane Carden of East Carolina. Opening point spread: Louisiana-Lafayette by 4 1/2 The pick: East Carolina 38, Louisiana-Lafayette 31 20 Boise State vs. Washington Sat., Dec. 22 - 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Las Vegas - Sam Boyd Stadium Everyone knows that there's no place like home, but the Huskies seriously need to broaden their horizons beyond Seattle. Washington (7-5) was miserable on the road this year, losing four games in spectacular fashion. Getting blown out by LSU, Oregon and even Arizona is one thing, but squandering an 18-point, fourth-quarter lead against downtrodden rival Washington State was absolutely criminal. Excuse us if we don't consider the Huskies to be trustworthy enough to handle the distractions that naturally accompany a few days in Sin City. For Boise State (10-2), which reached double-digits in wins for the seventh consecutive season, facing the big Dawgs from a neighboring state is something truly worth embracing and counteracts the humdrum feeling of playing in this bowl game for a third consecutive year. By the way, the Broncos cruised to victory in both of those previous postseason contests against teams that are currently members of the Pac-12. Opening point spread: Boise State by 7 1/2 The pick: Boise State 30-17 Fresno State vs. SMU Mon., Dec. 24 - 8 p.m. Honolulu - Aloha Stadium After a quarter century without a postseason appearance, June Jones led the Mustangs to the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, following up a 1-11 showing in his first season with SMU. Now it's a habit. This will be Jones" fourth-consecutive bowl game, returning to a place that holds special memories. In 2007, Jones led Hawaii to an undefeated season and BCS berth. Getting torn to shreds by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was a bummer, but the journey was magical. Winning didn't come easy at SMU (6-6) this year, but the Mustangs got the job done when they had to, beating C-USA champ Tulsa, 35-27, in the regular-season finale to earn this trip to Honolulu. Fresno State (9-3) has a much deeper sense of momentum, having won its last five games and seven of its last eight. Bulldog quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 36 touchdown passes, against only five interceptions, and his backfield mate Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 scores. That duo rightfully gets a lot of attention, but the reason Fresno State is so vastly improved over its 4-9 campaign from a year ago is because of its defense. First-year head coach Tim DeRuyter can be confident that his defenders, who allow only 22 points per game, will have more than enough backbone to fend off Mustang quarterback Garrett Gilbert (remember him from his days with Bevo?) and running back Zach Line. Opening point spread: Fresno State by 11 1/2 The pick: Fresno State 38-24 Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan Wed., Dec. 26 - 7:30 p.m. Detroit - Ford Field A game in Detroit, one day after Christmas? It's no problem for Western Kentucky, which is making its first bowl-game appearance. The Hilltoppers, who won a FCS national championship in 2002, have been methodically climbing the mountain a few seasons now after making their jump to the higher level. Coach Willie Taggart, a former WKU quarterback, inherited an 0-12 team when he took over in 2010. Unfortunately for the Hilltoppers, Taggart is off to USF. Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will serve as interim coach. Now things are on solid ground. The Hilltoppers (7-5) like to pound it with junior running back Antonio Andrews (1,609 yards, 11 TDs), who is coming off rushing games of 238 and 230 yards. Even though the Chippewas (6-6) won their final three games to reach the postseason, their defense wasn't a pretty sight. Central Michigan allowed an average of 43.3 points in its six defeats. Opening point spread: Western Kentucky by 6 The pick: Western Kentucky 29, Central Michigan 24 24 San Jose State vs. Bowling Green Thurs., Dec. 27 - 3 p.m. Washington, D.C. - RFK Stadium Give it up for the Spartans, who were 1-12 in 2010. How did the turnaround happen? The Spartans (10-2) parlayed an electrifying passing game - led by junior quarterback David Fales (3,798 yards, 31 touchdowns) - and a reliable defense. San Jose State, which will be led by interim head coach/defensive coordinator Kent Baer, gets the cross-country jaunt to Washington, where Bowling Green (8-4) awaits. The Falcons utilized stingy defense in winning seven of their last eight games in a MAC that produced a league-record seven bowl teams. Opening point spread: San Jose State by 7 1/2 The pick: Bowling Green 24, San Jose State 20 BELK BOWL Cincinnati vs. Duke Thurs., Dec. 27 - 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Charlotte, N.C. - Bank of America Stadium Cincinnati (9-3) might be the most consistently undervalued team in the Big East Conference. The Bearcats have won or shared five of the last six league titles. Yes, this season's Big East became a jumbled mess - Honk if you're a Big East co-champion! - but Cincinnati hung in there and was part of a four-way tie. Duke - wow, Duke! - made its first bowl game since the 1994 season. Let's hand it to the Blue Devils. Once they got to 6-2, achieving bowl eligibility, the party was on. Duke lost four straight games, allowing an average of 49.5 points per games, to finish 6-6. Yowza! So now we'll see if Duke can avoid a five-game losing streak (and an overall losing record) that would slightly hamper the program's postseason accomplishment. Cincinnati, which lost its three games by a combined 16 points, will be difficult to stop, even without Butch Jones, who bolted for Tennessee (defensive line coach Steve Stripling will serve as interim head coach for the game). Quarterback duties were split between Munchie Legaux and Brenden Kay, who stepped up in the last season. But the Bearcats" most compelling force is senior running back George Winn (1,204 yards, 12 touchdowns). Opening point spread: Cincinnati by 11 The pick: Cincinnati 38, Duke 21 17 UCLA vs. Baylor Thurs., Dec. 27 - 9:45 p.m. The Bruins went toe-to-toe with one of the nation's best teams in five of their last eight quarters. The heart-breaking loss to Stanford in the Pac-12 title game gave added credence to P101"s belief that first-year head coach Jim Mora packed it in for the final three quarters of the regular-season finale versus the Cardinal to avoid a trip to Eugene, in favor of a replay up on The Farm. With those two opportunities to post a 10-win season gone, UCLA (9-4) needs a win to avoid losing three consecutive games to close its "turn-around" campaign. Through the first three decades of this bowl, we came to expect shootouts with an average of 59 points scored, but over the last three years the total has been nearly cut in half. That means we're due for a heaping helping of offense and these are the perfect teams to oblige. After losing five of six in the middle of its schedule, Baylor (7-5) turned things around by crushing the hopes of then-No. 1 Kansas State on Nov. 17, sparking a three-game win streak. Despite losing last year's Heisman Trophy recipient to the NFL, quarterback Nick Florence kept the Bear offense rolling right along, racking up a national-best 578 yards per game. He'll do plenty of damage against UCLA's 88th ranked pass defense, but it won't be enough to keep up with the generosity of a Baylor defense that ranks next-to-last, allowing 514 yards per game. Those numbers have Bruin quarterback Brett Hundley and running back Johnathan Franklin licking their chops after churning out 461 yards in the Pac-12 title game against one of the nation's best stop units. UCLA needs to avoid souring the accomplishment of ending USC's monopoly and produce its first meaningful bowl win since defeating Texas A&M in the 1998 Cotton Bowl. Opening point spread: Baylor by 1 The pick: UCLA 47-38