Select "On" to auto refresh every 5 minutes: On Off This page will auto refresh every 5 minutes: On Off Welcome to our rolling coverage of the Autumn Statement. With his fiscal targets slipping and the economy stagnant, George Osborne is under pressure. The chancellor is on his feet now. We'll bring you all the day's developments live. By Tom Burgis and Ben Fenton. 12.46 From Westminster, the FT's Jim Pickard has an instant take: This may sound churlish but the obr's prediction that gdp growth will rise in each of the next four years (from 1.2 percent next year to 2.8 percent in 2017) seems on the rosy side of possibilities. 12.44 OBR predicts that youth unemployment will peak at 8.3%. 12.40 BAD NEWS FOR OSBORNE Economic forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility - the independent forecasting body - predict the economy will contract by 0.1 per cent in 2012-13, from original forecasts of growth of 0.8 per cent. Many predictions had suggested a revision to a flatline. Instead, growth has fallen marginally into the red. The OBR also reduces growth forecasts across the current range of forecasts running until 2018. Growth forecasts for next 5 years are cut. Next year growth will be 1.2 per cent, down from 2 per cent previously predicted, rising to 2 per cent in 2014-15. In 2015-16 growth will be 2.3 per cent followed by 2.7 per cent and 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. 12.39 The chancellor also says that today's figures will show a saving of £33bn in reduced government borrowing costs from projects made two years ago. 12.37 Osborne: "Today's figures will show that the deficit is forecast to continue to fall." Savings will come from cuts to bureaucracy, benefits and the well-off, as expected. Chancellor admits he will roll forward spending cuts and tax rises into 2017-18. 12.35 And we're off. Osborne: there are no quick fixes to the world's woes: fiscal cliffs, eurozone crises and so on. But there is progress to report... And after barely a minute, the Speaker is demanding some decorum in a raucous Commons. Britain is on the right track, Osborne insists. 12.34: Osborne now on his feet and ready to go as a very sombre mood descends on MPs, who have just listened to the pain of Ann Clwyd MP, in tears, talking about the death of her husband, cold and frightened, unnursed, in an NHS hospital. Cameron very sympathetic. 12.30: Another question about corporate tax avoidance, focused on Amazon. Cameron says there is common ground that multinationals should pay "proper amount of tax." He says transfer payments are "strange practices" which the government knows there is more it can do, so does the HMRC. 12.26 The scene in the noisy House of Commons just now (the MP in the row behind Cameron is listening to a speaker, not falling asleep): David Cameron at PMQs (Photo: PA) 12.25: With the chancellor about to get to his feet in the Commons, Michael Hunter of the FT's markets desk has the pre-statement readout from the markets: London's FTSE 100 is 0.2 per cent higher at 5,878.91, a rise of 10 points. The FTSE 250, seen as more representative of the domestic UK economy is 0.4 per cent firmer at 12,097.10, a gain of 44 points. Sterling is flat at $1.6107. The yield on 10-year benchmark government debt stands just 1 basis point lower at 1.81 per cent. 12.23: Margaret Hodge MP, chair of the public accounts committee which grilled Starbucks, Amazon and Google on their tax avoidance, says the coffee giant's deal with the taxman to be announced shortly shows "naming and shaming works." Cameron agrees (mostly). 12.21: The important matters now: Cameron asked to confirm that the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's baby, if a girl, will be able to become queen like her "much-loved great grandmother." He does so. 12.19: Political correspondents on Twitter seem to agree Cameron is performing sparkily today. As Tom Bradby of ITN notes..."which is surprising given that the autumn statement is expected to contain only bad news." 12.16: Moving on to non-economy questions now... 12.15: The purpose of these two questions was apparently so that Miliband could tell the House that the government had reversed its election promise to "cut the deficit, not the NHS" and is cutting the NHS and not the deficit. Cameron says his opponent is "100% wrong." 12.13: Miliband asks why Cameron has failed to keep his promise to balance the UK's books by 2014-15. The prime minister sticks to the previous question about the top rate. He says the Chancellor will answer that one. 12.11: Powder being kept dry on both sides of the Commons chamber on the big economic questions until after Mr Osborne has addressed MPs. Labour keeps up attack that the government has broken its 2010 election promise to increase spending on the health service. Cameron says Labour wants to cut the NHS "it will never be safe with them again," turning an old Labour attack on the Tories on its head. Raucous stuff, but more of an hors d'oeuvre. Now moving onto the question of what to do with the top rate of tax. 12.07: First question from Ed Miliband is about the NHS and whether or not the government has cut spending there. PM quotes Office of National Stats on spending, and is immediately accused by the Leader of the Opposition of "the most slippery answer you can possibly imagine." 12.05: Meanwhile, good and bad news for Mr Osborne, according to two of the UK's most followed business-tweeters. The BBC's business editor Robert Peston (@peston) says that he has been told that the UK's AAA rating is doomed, no matter what the Chancellor does today; Mark Kleinman, his counterpart at Sky News, says Starbucks has struck a deal with the taxman and will pay corporate taxes on income of between £5m and £10m this year. 12.02 Cameron is on his feet for PMQs... 11.53: If the Chancellor, as expected, goes down a "tax the rich (pension fund) " route, here is an earlier FT explainer on what it would mean for the UK P&L. 11.50 Welcome to the Usain Bolt economy. One of the key lines from this morning's lobby briefing on the Autumn Statement is that the government is "equipping Britain to succeed in the global race," reports the FT's Helen Warrell. This follows a theme started by David Cameron in his speech to the Conservative party conference in October - that the UK is under increasing pressure from newer, emerging economies and will have to shape up if it is to compete internationally. The prime minister's exact words back in Birmingham were: Because the truth is, we're in a global race today. And that means an hour of reckoning for countries like ours. Sink or swim. Do or decline. Singling out China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria as countries that were "on the rise" Cameron said this group were all "lean, fit, obsessed with enterprise, spending money on the future - on education, incredible infrastructure and technology." Given the chancellor's announcement yesterday of a £5bn package for new schools, roads and science projects, it is clear that Downing St is keen to learn from the example set by these relative newbies. The only element missing - a boost for silicone roundabout and tech city, widely tipped for later this morning. 11.28 George Osborne has left No 11, thus: Osborne sets off from 11 Downing St (Photo: Getty) Should he pass through College Green, he will spot these people, who do not appear to rank among his biggest fans: Unison protesters in George Osborne on the morning of the Autumn Statement by parliament (Photo: PA) 11.19: Kiran Stacey back on the line, this time to report what a busy morning David Cameron has had. In 40 minutes, he has Prime Minister's Questions, but before that, he has been meeting both with his Cabinet and, somewhat less predictably, with Carey Mulligan. The cabinet met for the second time in two days this morning, as the chancellor took them through what will be in his statement this afternoon for an hour. Downing Street would not comment on whether there were any more nasty surprises in store for ministers, who were told at Tuesday's cabinet that many of them had to find extra spending cuts from their budgets to fund more capital spending. But the PM's official spokesman did say this: "The chancellor's central message was that Britain is on the right track. We are dealing with our deficit and our debts in a fair way that means everyone will make a contribution. We are equipping Britain to succeed in the global race. The message is a reflection of what we have been reporting for weeks: that money will be taken from the top and the bottom of society. From the top, in the form of pension tax credits, and from the bottom in the form of a squeezer on benefits. There was no word on which meeting the prime minister enjoyed most - the cabinet discussing the autumn statement or his subsequent meeting at Number 10 discussing dementia with Carey Mulligan, the Hollywood star who has led a campaign on the issue. 11.00: The FT's Kiran Stacey reports from Westminster: Some are predicting that George Osborne's big surprise today will be that he is freezing fuel duty not for just three months, as widely expected, but for a whole year. These rumours started with Tory backbenchers who have been campaigning against high fuel costs, who have been telling reporters that a year's freeze would be the only way to keep them off the chancellor's back. The Treasury has not commented on these whispers, which has only served to amplify them. But if the chancellor does choose this route, it will cost him over £1bn, a hefty rise from the £300m a 3-month freeze would cost. 10.50: The FT's Claire Jones, part of our hive of economics correspondents, says latest PMI figures show why Mr Osborne may not be wearing his broadest smile today: An influential gauge of activity in the UK's dominant services sector fell to its lowest level in almost two years in November, amplifying fears that the economy could shrink in the final quarter of 2012. Activity fell to 50.2, its lowest level since December 2010, according to the CIPS/ Markit survey of purchasing managers working in the industry. A figure above 50 signals an expansion in activity. The poor performance of the services sector, which makes up more than three quarters of GDP, will be of concern to the government ahead of this afternoon's Autumn Statement. She quotes Vicky Redwood of the consultancy Capital Economics: "The outlook for growth next year is clearly looking shaky and the OBR will be revising down its economic forecasts fairly significantly alongside the Autumn Statement this afternoon," Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics, a consultancy, said. Ms Redwood said the data suggested that the recovery in the biggest part of the UK economy had "completely fizzled out." Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said the survey added "to worrying signs that the economy faces a renewed slide back into contraction." The poll indicated that activity in the services sector could weaken further in the months ahead, reporting that a tough economic climate had undermined efforts to secure new orders. The weak services PMI comes on the back of renewed signs that activity in the construction sector is contracting. However, the manufacturing PMI for November, released earlier this week, showed signs of a stabilisation in activity. 10.38 Stephanie Flanders, the BBC's economics editor, takes an unflattering view of what has happened since the chancellor took power. In her blog post setting the scene for the Autumn Statement, she says that the Office of Budget Responsibility will say today that the UK has "nothing to show for £59bn of austerity measures." 10.13 Time for a flick through today's papers. The FT's Hannah Kuchler concludes that, while everyone predicts a glum day for George Osborne and the British economy, there is probably enough support in the papers" editorials to stop the chancellor sobbing into his cereal this morning. The Times declares the chancellor "right" to remain committed to austerity and says delaying his fiscal targets - which Osborne is expected to do today - is the "most sensible" option. Though he will be derided for failing to achieve so prominent a part of his economic strategy, he can argue that spending restraint in the medium term is having an effect, and that the economy is being hampered by unanticipated external developments (principally the continuing eurozone debt crisis). But Daniel Finkelstein, writing in The Times, says Osborne needs to convince the public that the gains from his deficit-reduction plan are worth having. In an extended golf metaphor, he argues: He needs to make people feel that not to have them would be like making a bogey, that it would be a loss. He needs to make a smaller deficit feel like a proper advantage, worth the pain it caused. The Daily Mail praises Osborne for being "a beacon of realism in a sea of greens," as the chancellor is expected to approve up to 30 gas-fired power stations in the statement. The Daily Telegraph is a little more equivocal, calling on the chancellor to stop tinkering with austerity and warning him not to attempt magic tricks to meet the goal of a balanced budget. The chancellor must be much more open and honest about the scale of the challenge facing the public finances, and set out a clearer set of objectives and sanctions for ensuring that is adequately faced up to. The editorial concludes by pushing Osborne to be even tougher and "commit to a more robust and urgent plan for putting the public finances back on a sustainable footing." Writing in the Telegraph, Mary Riddell has some solace for the chancellor saying Labour hasn't yet made a convincing case for its economic policies. "Although Mr Balls has prepared a detailed response, after consulting with Labour's arch-strategist, Lord Mandelson, the contents can be summarised in four words: "I told you so." ... Without issuing a pre-emptive spending review, Labour must soon be much more precise about what it would cut. Without compiling a manifesto, it will need to flesh out what big-spending areas, such as health and welfare, would look like in Ed Miliband's Britain. Among the red-tops, The Daily Mirror is on predictably aggressive form, writing ahead of an expected squeeze on benefits: In the Britain of today a callous Government is making life harder while blaming the poor for their poverty. 10.11 Via Robin Wigglesworth of the FT's capital markets team, here from Capital Economics is a pretty thorough Autumn Statement checklist. 10.03 The coterie of estate agents trading in London's luxury housing market is getting increasingly twitchy ahead of today's statement, reports Ed Hammond, the FT's property guru. The 2 percentage point increase in stamp duty for houses worth over £2m made in the Budget has already put the wobbles on the market. Moreover, the vortex of uncertainty created by the George Osborne's rhetorical war on "morally repugnant" tax dodgers has spooked foreign buyers, the lifeblood of luxury London. Deal-starved agents are praying Osborne doesn't hit rich homeowners again and risk wrecking the party all together. Charles McDowell, an estate agent specialising in high-end homes in Chelsea and Kensington, said Wednesday's statement had "make or break implications," adding: "A large number of my clients are waiting with baited breath." 09.57 Fears of a new tax raid on banks were raised by a front-page headline in The Times newspaper today. But as the FT's Jim Pickard notes: The article merely pointed out that for the existing levy to raise its target yield of £2.5bn a year, the rate would have to rise slightly to reflect banks" shrinking balance sheets. 09.45 We hardly expected David Cameron to declare that the Autumn Statement will be an unmitigated disaster, so a message of support for his chancellor is entirely predictable, and here it is: The latest polling from YouGov is less encouraging for the Tories, however. 09.35 From the FT's lobby team, Jim Pickard has been taking early soundings. Westminster veteran journalist Paul Waugh predicts Scrooge crossed with Thatcher: "Bah, handbag." Meanwhile, some Tory MPs are hoping Osborne will rule out any fuel duty rise before 2015. 09.31 Sterling is flat against the dollar this morning as currency traders await the Autumn Statement. 09.25 We'll have a round-up of the papers" predictions for you shortly. In the meantime, the big story of the morning is confirmation that the Age of Austerity has grown longer. From the FT's splash today: 09.17 Good morning. Dawn over Westminster and it's a big day for the chancellor - again. Should you have missed it, economics editor Chris Giles's post on the FT's Money Supply blog skewers the central questions in the Autumn Statement and adds a warning: This year there is the added complication that the Treasury is in an arrogant mood, so you cannot take statements by the chancellor or officials at face value. This happens periodically; it is a massive bore, but it requires everyone to be on their guard. For a version of Chris's analysis in layman's terms, see this crystal clear FT explainer. On the political front, the FT's Jim Pickard has written a handy 10-point primer on what to expect from George Osborne's mini-Budget: fiscal targets, energy policy, squeezing the rich, hunting tax dodgers, what to do about Michael Heseltine, the lot. Talking politics, Janan Ganesh's column is essential reading in gauging how the Autumn Statement will play with the Great British Public. All the same, Labour is ready to pounce: Following the furore over seemingly minuscule tax payments by multinationals in the UK such as Google and Starbucks, one of the day's hottest potatoes will be tax avoidance. As the FT's Philip Stephens wrote in his column on Monday: This is not the obvious moment for multinational companies that claim to be good corporate citizens to be manipulating their earnings and sending their profits offshore. Elsewhere, the BBC's James Landale warns that Osborne risks gaining a reputation as the "mañana chancellor" and suggests that the political decisions of the day boil down to whether you like Hilaire Belloc or prefer Mötley Crüe...