Calling a peak for gold price could be premature Market sentiment towards gold has been much more uncertain in 2012 than was the case in previous years. Yet, we expect gold to achieve a new record high in 2013 due to further monetary easing, less tail risk related to a break-up of the eurozone and ongoing support from physical demand," Anne-Laure Tremblay, BNP analyst said. She expects gold prices to average $1,780 an ounce in 2014, it what would be the first annual decline in the metal's price in 14 years. However, near-term prospects look good. Indeed, gold was named by Morgan Stanley's commodities team as its top pick next year, with the broker seeing no sign of an improvement in real interest rates. "Investment demand [for gold] will remain strong against a weaker US currency, low real interest rates, central bank buying and enhanced geopolitical uncertainty," Morgan Stanley said. Gold remains our preferred fundamental metal exposure heading into 2013. The US broker thinks the price will be supported by central banks. "The official sector has not been a net buyer of gold each year since 2009, as developed economies" central banks have sold increasingly small quantities of gold." Friday's gloomy US consumer confidence data may spur the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee into extra stimulus measures. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index in December fell to a four-month low of 74.5, significantly below a consensus view of 82. However jobs data released a couple of hours before was more upbeat. The news prompted gold futures to move off a four-week low. Indeed, Swiss broker UBS has said that moves in the gold price could be sharp if the US central bank increases asset purchases. "We expect the announcement of additional balance sheet expansion," UBS strategist Edel Tully said. This has not been priced in, so any aggressive move by the Fed would prompt a sizeable response. Nomura also suggested that there could be further asset purchases, but most observers see the Fed maintaining its current bond buying strategy. Morgan Stanley's second-favoured commodity is soybeans, followed by corn, silver and platinum. Its least favoured are aluminium, sugar, nickel, and uranium. For silver, Morgan Stanley sees the gold-silver ratio averaging 53 in 2013. The ratio is the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold. Based on Friday's closing prices, the ratio currently stands at 51.6. It has averaged 60 since 2000. So it looks like gold's bull run is not over yet, albeit there are threats emerging to future returns. However, all of this is predicated on an improvement in the global economy - and the US in particular. At the moment it is difficult to forecast three months in advance, so calling a peak for the gold price could be premature. Brent benchmark boost The widening gulf between global benchmark oil prices has been underlined by a move by the US government. Last week the Energy Information Administration abandoned the American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for use in its price forecasts, turning to the North Sea's Brent crude instead. The agency cited the "growing discrepancy" between WTI and global prices for crude, as the US struggles with an infrastructure overwhelmed by its rising oil output. That means right now Brent offers a better reflection of global oil demand and supply - and even US gasoline prices - according to Capital Economics. Investors eye opportunities around world's growing water scarcity Move over the food speculator - a new bogeyman may be emerging. The financialisation of agricultural commodities draws anger from anti-poverty campaigners, who argue it pushes up food prices. In response, traders say they help markets work more smoothly - but do acknowledge that the money that has poured into food as an investment class may have lifted underlying prices. Still, they may soon find another set of investors distracting their critics, as water scarcity throws up new opportunities in the markets. "According to the UN, over the next two decades global demand for fresh water will vastly outstrip reliable supply in many parts of the world," write analysts at Macquarie. Several major population centres of both rich and poor nations have reached a point of physical scarcity which is forcing them into pursuing costly water transfer alternatives. What that signals is a possible investment opportunity. Of course, there's the more traditional route of investing in water infrastructure, or water utilities. But the team note that some countries are seeing a market for water as an asset emerge, allowing investors to gain pure exposure to water as a commodity, or to take a position on potential water scarcity. Australia's water trading market is now worth over $A25 bn (£16bn). As awareness of water scarcity grows, the market around it looks set to grow too.