Raising the curtain on 2013 Nate Silver makes it all look so easy. The New York Times statistician who predicted Barack Obama's presidential win says his methods for forecasting the outcome of elections or sporting events are "not that complicated." But not everyone gets it quite as right as he does. Undaunted, the Financial Times" experts are putting their reputations on the line by making their own predictions. They have no handy algorithms to weigh the probabilities. They just have to rely on knowledge and instinct or, at the very least, boldness - like Clive Cookson, our science editor. Last year he predicted that scientists would confirm the possibility of travel faster than the speed of light. Unfortunately he was wrong. The result from the initial experiment that got everyone excited was due to faulty wiring. But who cares? The journey was entertaining. This year he takes a punt on the discovery of life on Mars. Martin Wolf's choice was no less risky, however. A year ago the euro was on the endangered list. Few were bullish about its continued survival. Except Mr Wolf, who put the sceptics in their place. Edward Luce also deserves a medal for beating Mr Silver to the prediction of an Obama win. Alison Smith accurately forecast a bumper year for UK dividends, while Ben Fenton was on the mark with his warnings on the travails of the newspaper industry. Not everyone can be mentioned here. But, right or wrong, the FT's experts are back again with more bets for 2013. Peggy Hollinger Will Britain suffer a triple-dip recession? There will be no triple-dip as conventionally described. But this may not be the most important question. The often accepted definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of contraction - spectacularly fails to describe the British economy. It had a horrible recession in 2008-09, bounced a little and has been more or less flat since mid-2010. Whether you count the downs as a dip or the ups as a recovery is beside the point. So if we have another contraction in the fourth quarter because the blip caused by the Olympics falls out of the comparison, and then another slight dip in the first quarter, there will be those who count this as a triple-dip and see it as significant - but not me. The real issue for 2013 is whether self-sustaining growth can return, and that remains sadly in doubt. Will we discover convincing evidence of life on Mars? Chemical analysis of Martian soil and rock by Nasa's Curiosity rover will provide the most eagerly awaited scientific results of 2013. The car-sized rover, which landed in August, has begun to put its robotic instruments through their paces - and rumours that they had already detected a chemical signal of life caused a frenzy of excitement a month ago. Over the coming year Curiosity will roll for many miles over the dusty red landscape, stopping to dig or drill samples for its robotic laboratory to cook, sniff and taste. It will be looking for an unambiguous chemical signature of molecules that could only have come from biological processes - either in the past or, more excitingly, today. Although astrobiologists would be astonished if Curiosity actually finds a live Martian bug, most would say that the planet's geological history makes it probable that it has hosted life in the past - and possible that microbes still live there today. I predict that by the end of 2013 we will have firm biochemical evidence for biology on Mars. Clive Cookson Will any of the advanced countries" "big four" central banks raise intervention rates in 2013? The monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are indeed extraordinarily loose. The highest short-term intervention rate is the ECB's 0.75 per cent. In addition, these central banks have employed a wide range of unconventional measures that have hugely expanded their balance sheets. Yet there is little reason to expect any raising of rates over the next year. The reason is simple: central banks will not tighten until the credit engine is repaired and the economies recover. Moreover, when they tighten, the first stage will be to unwind past balance-sheet expansion. Only then will they raise interest rates. The Fed is the logical candidate to raise rates first, because the US economy is likely to recover first. But it may well be the ECB that goes first, though only because it is institutionally hysterical about inflation. Will Barack Obama bomb Iran? To borrow the Churchillian metaphor, the US president intends to try jaw-jaw ahead of war-war. Mr Obama will seek direct bilateral negotiations with Iran. There is no guarantee that Ayatollah Khamenei will agree, but tougher sanctions have provided a powerful incentive. Iran is now feeling serious economic pain as a result of financial and oil sanctions and the regime fears another "Green" revolution. For its part, the US now seems ready for talks that go well beyond Iran's nuclear ambitions to issues such as a US security guarantee. Benjamin Netanyahu will try to pull Mr Obama in the other direction by urging an early US attack on Iran's nuclear installations. But after the Israeli prime minister's support for Mitt Romney in the presidential race and his plan for more Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the White House is in no mood to listen; 2013 could be the year of the big bust-up between the US and Israel. Will Monti still be in government after elections early next year? Many hope so, but mostly outside Italy, where markets and beleaguered eurozone leaders nervously await the outcome of elections. These will probably be held in February, with Silvio Berlusconi back to his populist antics in a desperate bid to defeat the centre-left Democrats allied with ex-communists. Mario Monti, the technocratic prime minister, will give up his neutrality (or "virginity," as a pro-Berlusconi newspaper put it) and enter the electoral race to defend his legacy. The campaign promises to be ugly. Italian politics have not been so volatile since the collapse of the postwar order in the early 1990s. Mr Monti's centrists face a disgruntled electorate tired of recession and tax rises, and angry at a corrupt political elite. Not popular enough to win outright, Mr Monti may face the choice of becoming head of state (important but removed from policy making) or finance minister in coalition with the Democrats. I go for the latter. Guy Dinmore Will the US return to pre-crisis GDP trend growth of 3 per cent in 2013? No - growth won't exceed 2 per cent. Continued Washington wrangling over America's fiscal future, weak demand for US exports, and a relatively slow recovery in the US housing market will make for another disappointing year of recovery - the fourth in a row. Relative to Europe, the US will continue to be a bright spot. Relative to its own expectations, the US will underperform. Will England's big four football clubs change managers? This will be a year of upheaval for the league that grips global audiences. Chelsea are likely to cashier Rafael Benitez in the summer. After all, he was hired on a short-term contract and fans barely tolerate him as a stopgap. Abject failure in the Champions League will probably do for Roberto Mancini, Manchester City's dapper boss. The futures of Arsène Wenger and Sir Alex Ferguson, the Premier League's longest-serving managers, are more opaque. The Arsenal man's failure to win anything for seven years would have finished him by now at any similarly grand club, but his ability to turn a profit impresses his board. He will survive only if his team qualifies for the Champions League. Sir Alex, who turns 71 on New Year's eve, seems to be hanging on until a big enough name is ready to replace him. Coincidentally, José Mourinho becomes available in the summer. Brave, but not silly money says all four clubs will have different managers for the start of the new season in August. What will change after Germany's elections in September? For the first time, there is the chance of a "black-green" coalition emerging in Berlin. This would be an alliance between the centre-right Christian Democratic Union of Angela Merkel and the environmentalist Greens, whose roots go back to the protest movement of the 1960s. Any such deal would be tough for either side to negotiate because of years of mistrust. In the context of Social Democrats" opposition to a grand coalition with Ms Merkel's Christian Democracts, a black-green combination is the likeliest outcome. The result would be a pro-European coalition, but one of the most conservative that Germany has had for decades. Quentin Peel Will the Greek economy stop shrinking in 2013? The International Monetary Fund forecast that Greece would return to growth in 2011, then 2012, 2013, and now 2015. There are three reasons why this year may be different. First, the latest austerity package brings Greece tantalisingly close to primary balance and multiple restructurings have largely put Athens" debt service on hold for several years. Second, remember that banks were not the culprits in Greece. But no banking system can survive a depression and sovereign restructuring without help. That help has been held back in the long stand-off between Athens and the "troika," so a private credit crunch has added insult to injury. Funds to recapitalise the banking system are finally on their way. Third, parts of the Greek private sector are in better shape than the public sector. Much competitiveness has been regained. Once structural reforms are implemented, they should unleash other potential that has been held back by outrageous inefficiencies. Martin Sandbu Will Britain go ahead with a new nuclear power station? The government may have designated nuclear as one of the technologies it favours to satisfy the UK's future power needs but there are plenty of reasons for it to think twice. Nuclear-generated electricity is expensive, costing about a third more than the gas-powered kind because of the massive construction costs. These are likely to stay high thanks to tighter regulation since Japan's 2011 Fukushima disaster. The case for nuclear has always been marginal, resting mainly on the twin imperatives of decarbonisation and energy security. But the UK's economic weakness and a greater emphasis on energy efficiency mean it can cut emissions without investing so much in non-fossil-fuel generation. The possibilities of shale gas mean the UK may need fewer imports. It makes little sense to build a handful of nuclear plants. There would be few economies of scale to offset the high costs. For a subsidy-hungry industry, nuclear critically lacks a political constituency. The coalition may be split on energy policy but the Liberal Democrats favour renewables; the Tories gas. Nuclear? Neither is wildly keen. Expect the UK to sit out the atomic renaissance next year. Jonathan Ford Will Yulia Tymoshenko be set free and Ukraine turn to the west? No, on both counts. The administration of President Viktor Yanukovich has dug itself in too deeply by insisting Ms Tymoshenko's conviction was justified and non-political. Backing down now would involve too great a loss of face. The EU, meanwhile, has repeatedly signalled it will not sign political "association" and free-trade deals with Kiev as long as the opposition leader remains in jail. So those agreements, though their texts are fully agreed, will remain unsigned. But Ukraine will not move towards Russia either. Mr Yanukovich and the Russian leadership do not get on. Joining Russia's emerging "Eurasian Union" with Belarus and Kazakhstan involves too much loss of sovereignty. Ukraine will attempt to ease a fiscal squeeze by agreeing a new facility with the International Monetary Fund. But otherwise it will remain where it has been for the past two decades - in limbo between east and west. Neil Buckley Will there be western military intervention in Syria? There are several reasons why western powers are likely to intervene in Syria. First, after about 40,000 deaths there is growing discomfort at the humanitarian toll. Second, there is growing anxiety that the regime of Bashar al-Assad will be succeeded by fundamentalist Islamists, including groups linked to al-Qaeda. The west will seek to avoid this by initially intervening to provide weapons to selected moderate rebel groups. Further intervention by western military could then depend on subsequent events. The US has already made clear that it would get involved if Mr Assad was preparing to use chemical weapons. A severe escalation in fighting might well lead to the imposition of a no-fly zone, using western air power. If Mr Assad falls, the aftermath could be chaotic and bloody. There would be huge pressure to send a stabilisation force into Syria. One way or another, 2013 is likely to see the end of the western taboo on military intervention in the country. Will shots be fired between Japan and China in 2013? But do expect trouble. Resentment over competing claims to the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu by Beijing, is extremely deep. There have already been skirmishes at sea and violent anti-Japanese riots flashed across China this past year. The situation will not have been calmed by the election of Shinzo Abe as Japan's prime minister. Mr Abe is a nationalist who wants to ditch Japan's pacifist constitution and beef up defence spending. China's new leader, Xi Jinping, will probably also be keen to burnish his nationalist credentials. Still, to allow shots would be risky. The US is committed to helping Japan if its islands come under attack. Spilled blood could quickly escalate into an international crisis. But both sides will do their utmost to ensure things do not get completely out of hand. What will be the biggest medical breakthrough next year? There will be good news for the 200m people with Hepatitis C, the blood-transmitted virus that can lead to liver infection, cirrhosis and cancer. Drug companies are competing in a race towards purely oral pill-based treatments that have shown elimination of the virus in clinical trials. These offer a big improvement over treatment based on injected interferon. That still leaves the need for far greater prevention efforts to cut the rate of infections - many of which come from intravenous drug use - as well as improved diagnosis, since the virus can long be present without obvious symptoms. Andrew Jack Who will host the 2020 Olympics? Istanbul. The International Olympic Committee decides in September between Istanbul, Tokyo and Madrid. The Spanish capital's glamour is tempting, but the IOC can hardly turn a blind eye to the country's economic problems. Tokyo is a safe bet, and may benefit if the IOC prefers a non-European city. But Istanbul is the more progressive choice. As a predominantly Muslim country, it fulfils the IOC's aim of taking the games to new audiences. Tensions with Syria may cause some anxiety, but so may Japan's relations with China. IOC members may also worry about Istanbul requiring extensive building work. But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will throw his weight behind the bid, and he will be key to Istanbul's chances. On that note, we wish you mutlu yıllar! Roger Blitz