Italy: Monti's moment - FT.com Weighing options: Mario Monti will have to decide how far he will pursue the marking of his passage from technocrat to politician It was after a night at the opera - Wagner's Lohengrin opening the season at La Scala in Milan - that Mario Monti took the boldest decision of his 13 months as technocrat prime minister, setting in motion a chain of events that could change the course of Italian politics. Earlier that day, as he flew out of Rome, deputies in the centre-right party of the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi were triggering uproar in parliament, tearing into Mr Monti's economic record and abruptly ending their year-long support of his unelected government. Mr Monti could have decided to struggle on until elections, due to be held by next April. But as one senior official commented, he saw the act as "a sudden declaration of war and did not want to be left in the hot seat - powerless, a scapegoat and belittled." Instead, the 69-year-old former economics professor returned to Rome last Saturday to inform Giorgio Napolitano, the president, that he would resign early, once the 2013 budget law is approved, probably before Christmas. After Mr Napolitano dissolves parliament, Italy will be propelled towards early elections, with February 17 seen as the most likely date, the first time the republic has voted in winter. Although holding elections six weeks ahead of schedule does not make much difference in itself - except that key reform bills could fall by the wayside for lack of time - the combative manner of Mr Monti's announcement marked his passage from technocrat to politician. Just hours earlier, Mr Berlusconi declared his intention to make a comeback at the training ground of his AC Milan football club. "I am running to win," the 76-year-old billionaire said, launching his sixth election campaign since he took Italy by storm almost 19 years ago. A former European commissioner - first appointed by Mr Berlusconi in 1994 - Mr Monti has never run for office in his life. But expectations are mounting that he might. The prospect of a new fight for a sea of undecided "moderate" voters has sent shockwaves through the centre-left Democratic party, which had been confident of victory, and Mr Berlusconi's disintegrating People of Liberty. Those close to Mr Monti believe he has not made a final decision. But over the past week, he has been urged on by some of his ministers, clerics in the Catholic Church, captains of business, newspaper editors and European heads of government. "Prime Minister Monti has demonstrated great leadership and courage during his mandate, strengthening the position of Italy in Europe and the rest of the world," David Thorne, US ambassador to Rome, said at a pre-Christmas reception, without straying too directly into Italian politics. But while the sober professor is lauded outside Italy for fortifying the weak link in the eurozone chain with its €2tn debt mountain, Mr Monti is less loved at home. His tax increases and spending cuts are cursed for deepening Italy's longest postwar recession. Unemployment has leapt, consumer spending plunged. Mr Monti - who spends little time in the real Italy outside the comfort zones of Rome and Milan - was reported to have been taken aback when a noted pollster, invited for consultation, advised that he might only win 15 per cent of the vote in an alliance with like-minded centrists. Even with his sex scandals and trials for alleged tax fraud, abuse of office and paying an underage prostitute, Mr Berlusconi's party is polling similar numbers. Beppe Grillo, an activist comic leading the anti-establishment, eurosceptic Five Star Movement, is doing even better, feeding on widespread anger among Italians with what they see as the corrupt and cosseted elite of the mainstream parties. Italians may not love Mr Monti but many do respect him, mostly for restoring the country's credibility abroad. Yet his allure is founded on not being a politician. This could evaporate once he becomes one. Should Mr Monti run - he declined to comment on his future intentions yesterday - he may need a media coach to turn his academic orations into sound bites. Mr Berlusconi is already bringing the firepower of his unforgiving media machine into play, taking a populist, anti-austerity, anti-Germany tack that threatens to turn the vote into a divisive referendum on Brussels-mandated reforms and, by extension, Italy's place in Europe. "With his popularity plummeting, the risk is that [Mr] Monti's candidacy could further polarise the debate," says Vincenzo Scarpetta of Open Europe, a think-tank. Rattled by the danger of Mr Monti entering the fray, Pier Luigi Bersani, leader of the Democrats, is offering the easier alternative of a guaranteed future role in the event of a centre-left victory, without losing his "technocrat" hat. Whether as finance minister or head of state when Mr Napolitano's mandate ends after the elections, Mr Bersani declines to say. Mr Berlusconi is struggling to reply as well. On Wednesday he gave the latest twist of his many pirouettes, declaring he would renounce his candidacy if Mr Monti agreed to lead a broad coalition of "moderates" into battle against the left. A hint of menace was conveyed by Il Giornale, a Milan daily owned by the Berlusconi family, in a "with us or against us" editorial. "Choose!" it challenged. "Politics is a very dirty business," warned Roberto D'Alimonte, professor of politics at Luiss University who Mr Monti called for advice on electoral trends. Mr D'Alimonte is confident that the Democrats, together with their more leftist ally, Nichi Vendola, governor of Puglia, will capture the lower house of parliament. Under the current electoral law, they are sure of 346 seats out of 630, with a guaranteed bonus given to the winning coalition. The Senate is another matter, however, with bonuses allotted on a regional basis. Should Mr Monti run for office, boosting what is a weak coalition of centrists, including Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, head of Ferrari, then the chances rise that the centre-left fails to win a majority in the upper house. Watch out for Lombardy, Mr D'Alimonte says, calling it "Italy's Ohio and California." Mr Berlusconi had hoped to hold Italy's largest and most closely contested region, but his alliance with the rightwing Northern League has ruptured. This was a factor behind his U-turn offer to Mr Monti. Sicily, where Mr Grillo's Five Star Movement stunned Italy by becoming the single largest party in October's regional elections, is another battleground region. Mr Berlusconi memorably swept all its seats in 2001. We must be careful to continue the work of European construction and confront the resurgence of populism . . . The electoral campaign must take into account that citizens are not stupid, but mature," Mr Monti said this week. Mr Monti's choice, Mr D'Alimonte says, could determine whether the country emerges with a government led in both chambers by a centre-left committed to reforms and budget discipline - or a coalition with centrist groups that could unravel. This was the fate of the last centre-left coalition government, led by Romano Prodi, which collapsed in 2008. Part of the answer lies in perceptions of who is the real Mr Bersani. A former communist, he was a pragmatic minister in the Prodi government, credited with introducing modest reforms. But he is also seen as beholden to the leftist CIGL trade union federation and led a party purge whose direction is uncertain. Mr Bersani, 61, defeated Matteo Renzi, the young reformist mayor of Florence, in a primary contest on December 2 but has not picked up the phone to him since then, raising questions over his promises to bring about "change" in the party. Doubtless Mr Monti is weighing it all up, determined to preserve the "seeds" of reform he has planted but worried about the risks of becoming a catalyst of a fragmented parliament. His attendance, for the first time as prime minister, at a caucus of the European People's party in Brussels on Thursday was seen by some as a first step towards becoming a politician. In September he hinted that his home is in the EPP, which defines itself as the "political family of the centre-right" with its promotion of a social market economy. Should Mr Berlusconi's People of Liberty continue along its path of disintegration, then Mr Monti could become not just the professor who replaced him as prime minister but also his successor as leader of Italy's centre-right. It is a gamble, and he is not likely to show his hand until parliament is dissolved. Until then, Mr Berlusconi is capable of pulling more surprises. But the Wagnerian outcome is unlikely. Do not expect Mr Monti to follow the German knight Lohengrin, who retired to his castle out of human sight.