Julian Assange requests asylum at Ecuador embassy 11.39am: The Guardian's data editor, Simon Rogers has posted a fascinating analysis of Assange's chances of obtaining asylum based on new statistics taken from the UN. Ecuador has a total population "of concern" to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees of 144,494 people - according to the latest data out this week. That is the second highest number in Latin America after Venezuela. And, compared to its population of 14m people, it has a proportionately high number of refugees - 8.5 for every 1,000 people. That compares to 7 for Venezuela and only 3.1 for the UK. The majority of Ecuador's refugees - 122,587 people - come from neighbouring Colombia. It's not a certainty Julian Assange will join them either. Ecuador rejected 9,584 applications for asylum in 2011 - that's 78% of all the decisions it made that year and 68% of all applications. The country still has 21,558 pending asylum cases where it hasn't decided yet. But Ecuador also produces refugees too, something which may not have occurred to Assange. 909 people at the end of 2011. 11.29am: Matthew Happold, a barrister and professor of international law has sent us a short history of asylum in South America. Diplomatic asylum has a long history in Latin America, although not an uncontroversial one. Two cases between Colombia and Peru concerning the former's granting of diplomatic asylum to the Peruvian rebel Haya de la Torre came before the International Court of Justice in the Hague in the 1950s, thus setting out some rules on the practice. In Europe, however, incidents have been less common, and when they have occurred States have been unwilling to grant safe passage out of their territory. Cardinal Mindszenty remained in the US emabssy in Budapest for 15 years before being permitted to leave Hungary. Consequently, it cannot be said that the UK government is obliged to respect a grant of asylum by Ecuador and allow Assange to leave the country. A rule to that effect, if such exists, only applies between Latin American States He may, however, given that diplomatic premises are inviolable, remain in the Ecuadorian embassy as long as the ambassador permits him to. And his welcome will most probably soon wear out. 10.57am: Comments are now on. 10.38am: It is worth noting that Assange is actually quite friendly with Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa. In fact, Assange invited Correa on to his Russia Today show to be interviewed, just last month. Here's the interview: 10.36am: Our reporter Haroon Siddique, who is down at the embassy now, has just filed the latest update from the scene: When I arrived there were about eight police officers. Police vehicles have been coming and going all morning. I asked one officer what whether he was there to arrest Assange and he said, "We've just been told to stay here until we're told otherwise." About 10:20, all of the police suddenly left. And apart from the odd bewildered tourist there's no official presence nor any sign of supporters. The embassy staff are not taking any questions. 10.09am: Here is a statement from the Foreign Office which came to us late last night. They have confirmed that the Ecuadorian embassy enjoyed diplomatic immunity and therefore Assange is "beyond the reach of the police." The Ecuadorean authorities have informed us that Mr Assange had today [Tuesday] requested political asylum in their embassy in London. The government of Ecuador is considering the request. As Mr Assange is in the Ecuadorean embassy he is in diplomatic territory and beyond the reach of the police. We will seek to work with the Ecuadorean authorities to resolve this situation as soon as possible. 10.04am: Here's the full statement from the police: On 7 December 2010, officers from the Metropolitan Police Service's Extradition Unit arrested Julian Assange on behalf of the Swedish authorities. Julian Assange, now 40 (d/ob 3/7/71), was arrested on a European Arrest Warrant by appointment at a London police station. He is accused by the Swedish authorities of one count of unlawful coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, all alleged to have been committed in August 2010. Assange appeared at City of Westminster Magistrates' Court on 7 December 2010. He was later granted bail by the High Court, subject to a number of bail conditions. One condition was to remain at his bail address between 22.00hrs and 08.00hrs. At around 22.20hrs on Tuesday, 19 June, the MPS was notified that Assange had breached one of those bail conditions. He is now subject to arrest under the Bail Act for breach of these conditions. Officers are aware of his location at The Ecuador Embassy in Hans Crescent, London. 9.55am: Good morning and welcome to our live blog charting the events surrounding the somewhat surprising move by Julian Assange to claim asylum at Ecuador's embassy in the UK. To recap, yesterday afternoon the WikiLeaks founder walked into the Ecuadorian embassy and claimed asylum under the UN's human rights declaration. This followed an unsuccessful attempt to appeal against his deportation to Sweden to face allegations of rape. A summary of those events is here. Our US team also ran a blog overnight, covering reaction following Assange's flight to the embassy. This can be found here. The latest update is that as of this morning, the Metropolitan police have told us that Assange, who is still under bail conditions following his unsuccesful appeal to extradition, has now breached those conditions - one of which was to remain at his registered address between the hours of 22.00hrs and 08.00hrs. They police say they will arrest him and are aware of his current location at the embassy in Knightsbridge, west London. Our reporter at the embassy Haroon Siddique, reports that there are police at the embassy. What we have in effect, is a stand-off. We also have some questions which we will attempt to answer in the following hours which are Why has Assange chosen Ecuador? How long can Assange stay at the embassy? Can he make it to Ecuador? What's the Ecuadorian embassy like? What happens to the bail money that was put up for Assange by his celebrity backers? Will they lose it? NOTE: If you have information you'd like us to share privately please do get in touch on my email shiv dot malik @guardian.co.uk. I am also on Twitter - @shivmalik1.