What does a 'Grexit" mean for commodities? The most direct and obvious consequence of the turmoil would be a deepening and prolonged recession across the region, which would hit global commodity demand. While Greek demand may be tiny on a global scale, the eurozone as a whole accounts for around 14pc of the world's economic activity. Then there is also the indirect impact on demand from the continued uncertainly in global financial markets, as investors shun assets seen as risky - such as commodities - and continue to seek "safe havens" like the dollar. Equally of import is the more nebulous, but nonetheless powerful, hit to sentiment that a Grexit - often dubbed Europe's own Lehman event - would have on economic activity and investor behaviour. All in all, it adds up to a grim picture for commodity prices in general - although gold, which tends to tread its own path, could be the exception. But investors are not waiting around for this to kick off before they start to shun commodities, given that many European economies are already contracting. Prices of raw materials have taken a downwards turn in recent months, as worries about slowing Chinese demand further weigh on investor appetite. Crude oil futures contracts last week entered a bear market, defined as a drop of 20pc or more from their recent price peak. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index, which tracks commodity prices, has dropped by 12pc in a month and on Wednesday touched 601.62, its lowest level since October. But what is also emerging is that although the impact of a Grexit on commodity markets would reverberate around the world, its effects would not necessarily be unwelcome in every respect. According to analysts at Nomura bank, the fall in commodity prices in the event of Greek exit will be negative for commodity-producing emerging markets in Latin America and the Middle East. Yet they see this worst-case scenario offering a silver lining to Asia, as it will cut its region's commodity import bill and curb high inflation. Cheaper raw materials were a benefit also cited by US policy-maker William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, on Wednesday. "There has been a pretty significant decline in a broad-based array of commodity prices," which "has some potential benefit to us [in the US] ... in terms of real disposable income," he said. Specifically, he noted that a slide in petrol prices "will hold down inflation and support real income" - in other words, give consumers more spending power. As markets wait to see what will unfold, as ever a downturn signals the time to buy for some. "We believe the next few months will provide yet another opportunity to build long commodity exposure, particularly within the energy and precious metal sectors," say Deutsche Bank analysts. That bet comes with risks attached, given the various ways in which the situation in Europe could play out. "Our central scenario is that the eurozone is heading for a relatively orderly and limited break-up, albeit with the uncertainty dragging on at least through 2013," says Jessop at Capital Economics. But the outcome could be much messier. The even bigger falls in commodity prices following the failure of Lehmans suggest that the risks to our below-consensus forecasts still lie on the downside. Buyers beware. In the meantime, while the macro drivers for commodity demand remain a potential euro break-up and the situation in China, other commodity price movements are still playing a role - if small - in the ongoing crisis. Premium extra virgin olive oil last month dropped to $2,900 (£1,850) a tonne in the wholesale market. That was the lowest price since 2002 and almost half the peak of $6,000 a tonne in 2005, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The slump in the price, the result of a glut of supply due to a bumper crop in Spain, could not have come at a worse time for the southern economies currently the focus of market concerns. Spain, Greece and Italy together account for 70pc of the world's olive oil production, so will feel the price squeeze. "The crop, worth an estimated €5bn [£4bn] last year, is an important commodity for much of southern Europe and potentially crucial for some of the poorest parts of Spain," says Andrew Morris at wealth managers Signature. As if Spain, Greece and Italy didn't have enough problems already.