Miniseries, variety and reality: The Gold Standard Is "The Amazing Race"really that amazing? Is Jon Stewart that much better than Stephen Colbert? Are Jeff Probst's pre-torch-snuffing psychological interrogations any more difficult than the way witty Tom Bergeron keeps"Dancing With the Stars" moving? Or, more to the point: Why the monotony in these categories, Emmy voters? When nominees are hanging out at the bar as their categories are being presented, you're doing something wrong. At least make them think about writing an acceptance speech. "Game Change" (HBO) "American Horror Story" (FX) "Hatfields and McCoys" (History) "Sherlock" (BBC America) "Hemingway & Gellhorn" (HBO) 6."The Hour" (BBC America) Bubbling under: "Great Expectations" (PBS), "Appropriate Adult" (Sundance), "Page Eight" (PBS), "Luther" (BBC America), "Birdsong" (PBS), "Titanic" (ABC), "Bag of Bones" (A&E), "Jesse Stone: Innocents Lost" (CBS), "Magic Beyond Words: The J.K. Rowling Story" (Lifetime), "Neverland" (SyFy), "The Song of Lunch" (PBS) Analysis: HBO won the made-for-television movie Emmy seven years running. Then the category merged with miniseries last year, and"Downton Abbey" did a number on"Mildred Pierce" and ended the streak. "Game Change" currently rates as the presumptive front-runner, but given the popularity and quality of History's "Hatfields," there's a chance for an upset here in September. "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central) 2."The Colbert Report" (Comedy Central) 3."Saturday Night Live" (NBC) "Late Night With Jimmy Fallon" (NBC) 5."Jimmy Kimmel Live" (ABC) "Late Show With David Letterman" (CBS) Bubbling under: "Conan" (TBS), "Real Time With Bill Maher" (HBO), "The Late Late Show With Craig Ferguson" (CBS), "Chelsea Lately" (E!), "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" (NBC) Analysis: Maher's seven-year nom run may come to an end (he'll always have his Mets) as voters make room for Kimmel, whose show continues to get better with each passing year. Letterman, absent the last two go-rounds, could leapfrog over "Conan" now that those Team Coco T-shirts have been tucked away in the back of the drawer. Meanwhile, "The Daily Show" looks to take its 10th straight Emmy in a field sporting plenty of worthy alternatives. One possibility: "SNL" just wrapped its strongest season in ages. Might voters find themselves sentimental in the wake of Kristen Wiig's departure and give the show its first win since 1976?