Japan solar - rising sun The sun just shone on Japan's solar industry. Or so it should seem from the government's push to phase out nuclear power. What was already the best-subsidised and fastest-growing solar market on the globe has now got room, in theory, to expand further, cheering optimists the world over. But nothing in solar energy is as simple as some sunlight, high-tech panels and a power grid link-up might imply. Japan's existing commitment to solar comes with some scorching numbers. Assuming the authorities stick to the target of 6 per cent of energy needs met from solar by 2030, capacity must grow 11-fold, for a compound rate of 19 per cent a year, according to CLSA. By the end of 2014, Japan should have solar capacity more than three times its current level, equivalent to 17 nuclear reactors. This is helped by fantastically generous subsidies: Japan's feed-in-tariff rate, at Y42 per kilowatt hour, is twice Germany's and three times China's offering. But investors in solar have been burnt before and the industry is not a straightforward investment. Take solar-panel makers, which should be the clearest beneficiary. Two of the big three Japanese makers, Sharp and Panasonic, have been weakened by their other businesses. Even Kyocera, the number two panel supplier, has hardly raced ahead while overseas competitors have been hampered by slow certification and a preference for homegrown supply. Shares in China's Suntech, which has some Japanese market share, have slumped on its exposure to China's oversupplied market. The only really upbeat story is that of the resellers of panels to the public, such as tiny West Holdings, which benefit no matter who buys. No wonder investors are cautious with such small opportunities to make up for years of weak profits (where there were any) and falling prices. Anyone left who can still see the light behind every cloud will point to the slow rebalancing of solar supply and demand. After all, someone, somewhere should be gaining from all the subsidy dollars. But it still is not clear exactly who.