West still cautious in support for Syria rebels When a bomb exploded at a security headquarters in Damascus back in July, killing three of President Bashar al-Assad's top security officials, Syria's rebels were invigorated. Gaining much needed momentum in their one and a half year struggle to topple Mr Assad, they took their fight more deliberately to the capital for the first time and went on to battle security forces in the second city of Aleppo. With much of rural Syria already out of regime control, the rebels" advances seemed to bring Mr Assad's demise closer. Two months on, however, the Syrian conflict appears to be settling back into frustrating stalemate, as the regime reasserts itself in Damascus and imposes a military impasse in Aleppo. Out of desperation - but also a sense of impunity - it has unleashed its air force on de-facto liberated areas of the country, disrupting the opposition's attempts at self-government in northern provinces, and raising the toll of civilian deaths in the apparent hope of turning people against the rebels. Weapons are continuing to flow to the opposition from Gulf sources but the rebels have yet to receive significant amounts of what they now need most - anti-aircraft missiles - to confront the regime's military superiority. And, despite the pleas for an end to the conflict heard this week at the UN General Assembly, the world's interest in the crisis has receded amid little public clamouring for action in the west and continued Russian and Chinese opposition to an internationally imposed political transition. In fact, one western diplomat says the only pressure on western governments is to tread cautiously as they consider increasing support for the opposition, particularly as the rag-tag army of rebels has been joined by a small group of foreign jihadis. Concern over a disjointed armed opposition, says the diplomat, has been magnified in Washington following the extremist attack on the US consulate in Benghazi this month, which took the life of the US ambassador Christopher Stevens. True, the trend over the past 18 months is one of gradual disintegration of the regime and growing military effectiveness of the insurgents. The fall of Mr Assad is a matter of when, rather than if. But diplomats and analysts say a continuing and perhaps wider civil war remains a likely scenario unless Mr Assad's collapse is precipitated by other surprise attacks such as the July bombing in Damascus, a massive atrocity that forces an outside intervention or a sudden change of heart in Moscow, his chief international backer. The danger of a protracted stalemate, which raises the risk of destabilisation in already jittery neighbouring states, is particularly worrying for regional supporters of the rebels. Qatar's prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, told CNN this week that Arab countries were working on a Plan B, including setting up no-fly zones in parts of Syria. People familiar with the plan say it has been under discussion with non-Arab states, including Turkey and France, and also envisages the establishment of a provisional government in northern Syria. But no-fly zones have been floated before, only to be shot down by western military planners and policymakers. Salman Shaikh, director at the Brookings Doha Centre, says the US and European states should at least provide rebels with heavier weapons as well as training and logistical and intelligence support. "Until you have a big power leading a big effort, you won't have a chance of installing some organisational structure (on the rebels)," he says. Western governments, however, fear heavy weapons might fall into the wrong hands as the armed opposition becomes more radicalised - rebel spokesmen say that the US has warned Gulf states against sending anti-aircraft missiles. Yet, without an outside effort to organise the opposition, the rebel movement could further fragment and greater numbers of jihadis are likely to join its ranks. Already, rebel sources say rivalry between major financiers is exacerbating divisions as co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar falters and their support targets different groups. "Now we can still identity the top eight to 10 (rebel) brigades but in a few months we won't be able to," says Mr Shaikh. It may well be too late.