Knowns, Unknowns and Unknowables - NYTimes.com There are known knowns, there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns, that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know. That was Donald Rumsfeld's infamous riff on Saddam Hussein's mythical weapons of mass destruction in the run-up to the Iraq war. But it occurs to me that those three categories could just as easily be applied to the remainder of the presidential campaign. The Known Knowns Mitt Romney is running out of time. His path to victory is growing narrow and dark. There are only 40 days until Election Day. Early voting has begun or is about to begin in several states and new polls show Romney at or near double-digit deficits in the all-important swing states of Ohio and Florida. The Romney campaign is buckling under the weight of some big mistakes: A strategy that assumed that an empty suit could make empty promises and that an electorate full of voters consumed by anger at the president wouldn't notice. A candidate who keeps his foot so deep in his mouth that his toes can tickle his cerebellum. A nominating convention that fell flat. Romney picking a vice presidential candidate from the far right as he callously sought to siphon far-right enthusiasm without embracing far-right dogma. The fat lady is waiting in the wings and she's gargling with honey and lemon juice. The Known Unknowns The degree to which voter suppression efforts may undermine the accuracy of opinion polling is unclear. We don't actually know how many of the "likely voters" in polling models intend to vote and believe themselves to be eligible and registered to vote, but won't actually be allowed to cast their votes on Nov. 6. We know that conservative super PACs have an immense war chest, into which billionaires have poured millions of dollars. How will that money be used and will it be effective? Will attacks turn ever more personal as the campaign closes? How will voters respond to the last round of ads? Then there are the presidential debates. The candidates could upset expectations. Obama could be dull and Romney could shine. (Stop laughing. It's possible.) Finally, the news media needs a narrative. Drift is not a satisfying narrative for the culmination of campaign coverage. Rising and falling are narratives. So is resurrection. So is loss of a sure thing. The media will continue to look for new stories right up until Election Day. That's not about bias but about a thirst for thrills - for reporters and their audience. That means that as the advantage shifts to Obama, so does the burden of sustaining momentum and avoiding stumbles. Romney is in a horrible position but, strangely, there is a slim chance that he could benefit from it. If his campaign comes apart, the prurient spectacle of finger pointing and infighting could dominate the final weeks of the campaign. But if his campaign gains an ounce of competence, turning things around could galvanize coverage. The media loves a comeback. The Unknown Unknowns Something in me always believes that there is a bombshell waiting to be revealed, a trump card up someone's sleeve that he or she is waiting until the last moment to play. This could simply be paranoia, but if it were me, that's the way I'd play the game. There are also two jobs reports due out between now and Election Day. If they are consistent with previous months, they are unlikely to affect the race. But on the off chance that they are much worse, there could be an impact. And then there is the uncertainty of foreign affairs. Despite domestic bluster, there is little we can do to control world events, particularly in the Middle East and particularly during an election season. Syria is a simmering pot of atrocities. Anti-American anger is always lingering. Israel has an itchy finger over Iran's nuclear ambitions. New terror attacks are always possible. And then there's Joe Biden. Lovely fellow, but sometimes he spouts off like the drunken uncle at a family reunion. This will make the vice presidential debate must-watch television. This is all to say that things look good at the moment for President Obama's re-election, but it's not a done deal until the votes are known.