Airports Commission: Gatwick and two Heathrow options make short-list Sir Howard dismissed suggestions that a Thames Estuary option, which he estimates could cost between £80bn-£112bn, had been kept in play due to last minute lobbying by the Mayor. "The short-list of options that we have is one we decided some time ago and has not been influenced by politicians," he said at a press conference. The Estuary option is one that frankly I would say the commission went backwards and forwards on in ours minds as to whether we should keep this in play and our conclusion, which is our conclusion alone, is that we do not yet have the evidence base to make a firm decision on it. We have talked to a lot of people and people offer their views, this is a perfectly normal process in producing a report of this kind but the decisions are ours and made by us alone. Although two options have been short-listed for a possible third runway at Heathrow, Sir Howard said the commission is not convinced that London would be best served by one big hub airport. Heathrow argues that only hubs can develop enough routes to fast-growth markets abroad but so-called "point-to-point" airports, such as Gatwick, say they serve a range of different airlines, from low cost carriers to long-haul. At point-to-point airports, the majority of passengers fly direct to their destination and do not transfer from another flight. Sir Howard said: "In our case it is an open question as to whether London will be better served in the long-run by a constellation of airports offering a different combination of services at different price levels or whether you put all of your eggs in one basket and have one huge hub, which strikes us as quite risky." Mr Johnson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that it was good news his Estuary airport proposal is "not dead yet" but he has previously described the process as a "fudgerama." Plans for a new hub airport are "half in and half out," Mr Johnson said. Heathrow's proposal to build a third 3,500 metre runway to the north-west of its current site, over the villages of Harmondsworth and Longford has been taken forward by the commission. Heathrow estimates the runway will cost £17bn and could open by 2026 but it will involve the demolition of 950 homes. Sir Howard urged ministers and airport operators to look at "blight" schemes for residents who suffer particular hardship over the next 18 months before the final conclusions are delivered. The commission has also short-listed a proposal by Heathrow Hub, a company backed by City banker Ian Hannam, to extend the airport's existing northern runway to at least 6,000 metres, which would allow it to operate as two independent take-off and landing strips. Jock Lowe, one of the experts behind Heathrow Hub and the longest serving Concorde pilot, said: "Our proposal is not only the cheapest on offer, it also has the most comprehensive noise reduction strategy." Anti-Heathrow expansion campaigners promised 18 months of "intense" action. John Stewart, chair of campaign group HACAN, which represents residents under the Heathrow flight paths, said: "A new runway will increase planes from 480,000 a year to 560,000. There is no way overall noise levels will decrease. The Airports Commission was launched in November 2012 to solve the torturous debate over aviation capacity in Britain which has been raging for more than 50 years. Sir Howard, the former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, originally received 58 proposals on how to meet future demands for air travel to and from UK airports but has narrowed those down to a handful which will be developed into more detailed plans. A final recommendation will be delivered in 2015 after the General Election but businesses are already campaigning for the political parties to include a commitment in their manifestos to honour the findings of the commission - whatever the outcome. According to a report from the Department for Transport, demand for air travel to and from UK airports will increase from 219 million passengers in 2011 to 315 million in 2030 and 445 million by 2050. Sir Howard said the UK isn't facing an immediate crisis, in part due to a fall in air passengers during the recession. However, he suggested that passengers have been paying fares 10pc higher at capacity-constrained airports such as Heathrow. Heathrow: option (a) one new runaway to the northwest of the present airport Heathrow: option (b) extending the northern runway to the west Gatwick Airport option: one new runway to the south Some of the options that were presented to Sir Howard Davies during a consultation this year