Trade figures heap pressure on Mark Carney Friday's trade data were a stark remainder of how distorted the recovery is. The UK's current account deficit widened to more than £20bn in the third quarter. Not since Nigel Lawson was Chancellor has the deficit been this wide as a proportion of UK output. The late 1980s were a period of rapid economic expansion triggered by rising house prices, tax cuts, lower interest rates and high confidence. However, inflation rose and the current account deficit increased. Economists called it a classic example of "boom and bust." Sound familiar? We could also get to the point where good news is seen as bad. Of course, we've been here before. The launch of quantitative easing (QE) in America caused markets to disconnect with reality earlier this year, when better-than-expected employment data caused stock markets to fall rather than rise because it signalled that the US central bank would turn off the stimulus taps sooner than expected. This time it's less about QE and more about the timing of the first interest rate rise. While falling unemployment is welcome, as it nears the 7pc threshold the Bank of England has said will unlock consideration of a rate hike, productivity will need to return quickly or the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee will have to confront the issue sooner than most expect. Mark Carney will want to be remembered as the Governor who helped to nurse the UK economy back to health, not the man who raised rates too soon and killed the recovery. Forecasts of hard landing for China could be realised Markets in Asia fell sharply on Friday after concerns about China's stalling banking system resurfaced. The People's Bank of China couldn't pump liquidity into its lenders fast enough, amid fears that the world's second-largest economy faced a credit crisis. Financial conditions will probably remain tight next year, weighing further on manufacturing sector investment. There are also fears that the implementation of reforms will slow or come to a halt, as downside risks from a widespread deleveraging process loom. Talk of a hard landing in China is a perennial theme. In 2014 it could yet become a reality.