Opinion: Should poll give GOP hope for 2014? Not yet By Timothy Stanley November 27, 2013 -- Updated 1252 GMT (2052 HKT) Tim Stanley: CNN poll shows GOP is now ahead for 2014 midterm elections He says it shows voters react to events, in this case Obamacare snafus, are volatile He says shutdown hurt GOP, but Christie and Virginia race offered some good news Stanley: Obama coalition not inviolable; voters fed up with him and Congress, will shift Editor's note: Timothy Stanley is a historian at Oxford University and blogs for Britain's The Daily Telegraph. He is the author of "The Crusader: The Life and Times of Pat Buchanan." (CNN) -- A new CNN poll shows that it's back to a toss-up for the 2014 midterms elections. A month ago, Democrats were comfortably ahead 50-42%. Now the Republicans are marginally ahead 49-47%: a 10-point swing in public opinion. Of course, the figures don't actually tell us who will win the next round of congressional elections, but they do remind us of a fact that escapes short-termist political punditry: Voters react to events and are liable to change their mind. The rise and rise of President Obama's unbeatable rainbow coalition is not a historical inevitability but the product of temporary trends. To recap, the story a few months ago was that the Republicans had proved themselves incapable of governing wisely and, therefore, of winning elections. By trying to use the shutdown to force a delay in the further implementation of Obamacare, they were accused of putting partisanship before country, of pushing America to the brink of destruction just to humiliate Obama. Timothy Stanley Their humiliation when the shutdown ended was shown in polling across all demographics. Eight in 10 voters disapproved of the shutdown, including two in three Republicans or independents who lean Republican. But Democratic triumphalism was short-lived. The latest polling showing a turnaround was prefigured by two election results that showed residual conservative strength. In one, Chris Christie won a massive 2-1 victory that saw him make significant inroads into groups thought to be beyond the right's reach: women, Hispanics and African-Americans. In another, an unpopular ultraconservative Republican, Ken Cuccinelli, lost his gubernatorial race in Virginia but only by a small margin, despite being hugely outspent. Christie's win was probably driven by his personal appeal to voters, but while only 27 percent saw the health law as the top issue, the outcome of the Virginia contest may well have been influenced by public annoyance over the botched rollout of the Obamacare exchanges. And it would be entirely justified by the trouble with the website and the disappointing discovery that millions could lose their existing coverage in spite of what the President repeatedly -- repeatedly -- told them. In other words, while the public turned against the Republicans over the shutdown, they just as easily - and quickly - turned against the Democrats over health care. Crucially, the health care issue has a more direct impact upon their lives, which means its long-term resonance is likely to be greater. Obama's approval rating is now at its lowest since he took office, which also confirms the scale of the disaffection, and gives hope to the GOP. The conclusion at the National Journal is that, "Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year." Of course, this doesn't mean things can't swing back the other way. The key word in all this data seems to be "volatility." Voters are fed up with Congress and disappointed in Obama. Who ends up benefiting from the misery will be down to events and good timing. Either way, the idea that Barack Obama established a new New Deal coalition in 2012 that can't be broken by conservative politicians is clearly nonsense. Join us Facebook/CNNOpinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Timothy Stanley. December 3, 2013 -- Updated 0023 GMT (0823 HKT) Sanjay Gupta says whether the Affordable Health Care Act ends up improving health has a lot to do with whether Americans start making better personal decisions about eating, exercise and weight loss December 2, 2013 -- Updated 1541 GMT (2341 HKT) Richard Trumka and Christine Owens say that the minimum wage should be raised and indexed to inflation: Let's not allow America's lowest-wage workers to keep on falling further behind December 2, 2013 -- Updated 1244 GMT (2044 HKT) John O'Dell says it's wrong to question the viability of Tesla as a company because of recent incidents of fires December 2, 2013 -- Updated 1951 GMT (0351 HKT) David Frum says the U.S. must pay attention to Vladimir Putin and his cronies' attempts to resurrect the Soviet Union and control the Ukraine. Julian Zelizer says signature programs have to be validated by the next president for them to go down in history December 1, 2013 -- Updated 1717 GMT (0117 HKT) Bill Gates says the Global Fund, which matches the best tools to those who need them most, is one of the kindest--and smartest-- investments the world has ever made November 30, 2013 -- Updated 1547 GMT (2347 HKT) Dean Obeidallah: If we must be obsessed with social media, why not use it to draw focus to causes we care about? November 29, 2013 -- Updated 1625 GMT (0025 HKT) Wallis Annenberg says instead of focusing on need, philanthropists should focus on supporting people like CNN Heroes, who look at old problems in brand new ways November 29, 2013 -- Updated 1803 GMT (0203 HKT) Paul Waldman says the free-market solutions that conservatives still support have made U.S. health care far more expensive and exclusionary than in peer nations with government control November 27, 2013 -- Updated 2352 GMT (0752 HKT) Donna Brazile says at Thanksgiving, yes, donate food, money, time--but then get after politicians to meet the needs of Americans who continue to struggle and go hungry. November 27, 2013 -- Updated 2026 GMT (0426 HKT) Paul Begala says as we gorge at Thanksgiving, we should recall the 3.8 million Americans who would be kicked off food stamps and the 210,00 children who would lose school lunches under GOP cuts. November 27, 2013 -- Updated 0003 GMT (0803 HKT) Elizabeth Wydra says corporations' bid for an Obamacare exemption on contraception upends principles of religious freedom and corporate law. The high court should reject it November 27, 2013 -- Updated 1236 GMT (2036 HKT) Sally Kohn says this Thanksgiving, activists in a tent outside the Capitol won't be eating: They are fasting until Speaker Boehner agrees to a vote on immigration bill with a path to citizenship Timothy Stanley says a CNN poll may be good news for GOP and a reminder that Obama's coalition is not inviolable. Still, 2014 is a long way off. November 27, 2013 -- Updated 1238 GMT (2038 HKT) Ruben Navarrette says President Obama could use executive power to end deportations if he really cared about it. November 26, 2013 -- Updated 2102 GMT (0502 HKT) Roxanne Jones has been encouraging her son to use sexting -- minus the lewd photos -- to protect him from being wrongly accused of rape. November 28, 2013 -- Updated 1549 GMT (2349 HKT) Bob Greene says the holiday is a good time to think about the people who don't care about Beltway sniping, but who bought the political promises that they'd have health care for their families