Moderate recovery for emerging markets seen in 2014 London-based investors have less than 20 trading days left in 2013. Thoughts will thus be turning to strategies for the new year. Thankfully, analysts are not shy in offering their views. We will be analysing some of these intermittently in the run-up to Christmas. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is offering its top 10 upside and downside risks for its base case scenario of a moderate recovery in growth and inflation for emerging markets in 2014. They range, in Europe, from the possibility of Russian president Vladimir Putin increasing state control of the economy to the Hungarian high court's decision on whether unilateral changes to forex mortgage contracts can be permitted. That ruling could impact household finances across the region if seen as a template. In Latin America, BofA is worried that Brazil could get a ratings downgrade next year, as "it is still unclear whether government efforts to curb public lending will be sufficient to contain fiscal risks." In Mexico, the danger is that hopes for fiscal and energy reform will disappoint. And the market is not now expecting a hard-landing for China as Beijing tries to rebalance the economy. But if growth slows sharply, export-heavy EM would be badly hit, particularly the South African rand.