Israel and Assad raise stakes on Syria Syria's reaction to Israel's strike on a weapons convoy last week has been generally muted, lacking loud threats of retaliation. Israel, for its part, has confirmed the raid but the message to its allies has been that it too is not looking for an escalation. Global Insight Yet, the fact that Syria's Bashar al-Assad, who has been steadily losing his grip on the country in the face of a two-year rebellion, should dare defy repeated Israeli warnings about moving anti-aircraft missiles to its Lebanese ally Hizbollah - is in itself alarming. So too is Israel's readiness to strike. There might be no immediate conflagration but the stakes have been raised much higher. With every month that passes, Syria's neighbours become more edgy and the risk of contagion from the conflict grows. Though Israel is in a state of war with Syria, it has long considered the Assads at least a predictable enemy. With Syria in chaos, and chemical and biological weapons potentially falling into the hands of rebel groups as the regime further loses its authority, Israel might convince itself that further military strikes are necessary. A regionalisation of the conflict looks increasingly impossible to prevent because there is no end in sight for Syria's war. Even if Mr Assad falls in the next few months (and he could last much longer) the damage his brutality has inflicted on Syria will be long lasting. The Syrian leader is ensuring that his demise comes only at the expense of Syria's collapse. The fragmentation of the rebel movement is such that the aftermath of regime disintegration could leave Syria under militia rule, rather than any cohesive government. Many rebel forces will compete - and probably violently clash - with the jihadis of Jabhat al Nusra, the group that has scored a string of military successes, as the struggle for a new state begins. The threat of sectarian reprisals, particularly against the minority Alawite sect of the regime - as well as an already emerging struggle between Kurds and Arabs - adds to the complications of political transition. Resentment towards the west, already apparent in a society that feels abandoned by the world, brings another layer of difficulty. "It's not clear that the slope [of the downfall of the regime] is as steep as some people say," says Emile Hokayem, analyst at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. And we are still thinking of the endgame as Assad's downfall. But there are a series of scenarios that do not end the conflict. These include the Syrian leader becoming a warlord more powerful than his enemies, who fail to coalesce into a single potent opposition force, he says. Syria has also become a regional battleground where Iran and its Gulf rival Saudi Arabia are playing out their differences. And there is competition for influence with Syria's opposition between Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the main providers of finance and weapons. "All the regional players are now involved in Syria and it could get worse," says Samir al-Taqi, a former government adviser. Whether you can get out of this state depends on whether the international community is willing to turn Syria into an open field for discharging all the crises in the region. Warning that there will be nothing left of Syria to rule over, UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi wants both sides to name representatives for a dialogue on a political transition. Moaz al-Khatib, leader of the main political opposition, has risked alienating his peers by agreeing to talks under certain conditions, essentially dropping the opposition's longstanding position that Mr Assad had to step aside first. At the weekend he also met the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers - another move he had rejected in the past. The opposition is right to show some flexibility, but the weekend diplomacy is unlikely to go far. Even if Mr Assad agrees to negotiations on a political transition, his aim will be to manipulate a process - which he knows can succeed only with his exit - rather than to end Syria's destruction.