Why Tory plots should worry David Cameron The Government is under fire on several fronts. The economy continues to struggle and the Conservatives look forward to the Chancellor's forthcoming Budget with little optimism. "George's plan isn't working, that's what's wrong," says an MP. The Prime Minister has also picked a fight with a large part of his own party over gay marriage. On Tuesday, as many as 150 Tory MPs, potentially even more, are expected to vote against him. Conservative MPs of all shades of opinion do not much like the propensity of the No 10 machine to get itself ensnared in messes of its own making, either. On his tour of North Africa last week the Prime Minister announced that defence spending would be protected after 2015, before retreating within hours when the Ministry of Defence pointed out that this is at odds with the extra cuts the Chancellor wants the Armed Forces to find. And there was the loss of the boundary changes, which the party had hoped would redress the historic bias in the electoral system against the Conservatives. The Lib Dems allied with Labour to vote it down. All in all, it is quite a cocktail. Is Adam Afriyie MP a serious contender? The emergence last week of the largely unknown Mr Afriyie as the figurehead of a potential putsch only underlines that one of the weaknesses of the anti-Cameron faction in the Tory party is that it lacks a potential leader to unite around, a "Hezza." When Michael Heseltine brought down Mrs Thatcher, he was a widely recognised public figure who had been in the Cabinet and resigned on a point of principle. Even then he did not get to be Prime Minister. In contrast, Afriyie has so far made little impact at Westminster or in the country. Says a veteran MP: "Afriyie is a proxy for a generalised malaise and dissatisfaction." Cameron loyalists have been mocking the pretender's credentials and pointing out that he has no experience comparable with that of the Prime Minister, although Mr Afriyie arguably has no less experience than Mr Cameron had when he became Tory leader in 2005. In fact, Adam Afriyie, who emerged from a council estate, arguably had more experience, having built a business and made himself rich through his own efforts before he entered the Commons. What will the plotters do next? Even if Mr Afriyie is not the next leader of the Conservative Party, MPs who want to be ready for a change if an opportunity presents itself are organising and signalling they want a different approach. Says an MP: "It is far too early to be talking about a post-Cameron team, but if there is regime change some of the experienced grey-hairs who have been overlooked by Cameron and Osborne should come back. We would want to see David Davis, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Stephen Dorrell and John Redwood included. How is Cameron responding to the plotting? He is making a very obvious effort to focus on foreign policy and looking prime ministerial. The hope of his supporters is that the plotters will be seen as small-time lunatics attempting to take on a great statesman who is more popular than his party. While this approach is understandable, emphasising experience abroad hardly ever helps see off plotters if a leadership crisis really does erupt. In the end it does not influence voters much either. Recently it did President Sarkozy little good in the French election. And the Cold War warrior Margaret Thatcher was at the height of her international powers when she was deposed.