Markets Live: Wednesday, 12th June, 2013 This is the transcript of the Markets Live session ending at 12:17 on 12 Jun 2013. Participants in this session were: Bryce Elder Tony Tassell Murphy's on holiday. Egypt, I think. So I'm being Murphy, while Tony Tassell will be joining shortly to be me. Previously the main anchor on Greece's ERT. ... "A clip of a lightbulb going out." Whatever, it seems to have done the trick. ATHENS, June 12 (Reuters) - Greece's government promised on Wednesday to relaunch a slimmed-down state broadcaster ERT in a matter of weeks after a firestorm of protests from journalists, trade unions and coalition partners over its sudden closure. No word yet on whether Ms Ellie Stai has been replaced permanently by the flickering lightbulb. Here's Alex White at JP Morgan to put this all into context. Public sector layoffs have been one of the major bones of contention between Greece and the Troika, with the Government repeatedly facing political difficulties in meeting Troika requests for headcount reductions. The revised Troika request has been for reductions in the public sector payroll of 15,000 by the end of next year, with 2000 of these cuts due to come this summer. The Government has found piecemeal action hard going, partially due to constraints imposed by other parties, and the temptation to meet near-term Troika requirements through a single bold stroke was clearly attractive (the ERT cut exceeds Greece's near-term objectives in one move). The decision may also have been influenced by a desire to demonstrate the Government's commitment to its targets, following the recent failure to meet expectations on the DEPA privatization. "Put up or shut up" time? The decision by the main party, ND, to impose a form of fait accompli against its junior partners is clearly risky, but there are potential rewards domestically if it is able to carry it off. The decision enables the Prime Minister to put the two junior parties, PASOK and DIMAR, in a "put-up or shut-up" position. Either they rebel over these events, increasing the risks of an early election and a tough electoral challenge for the parties; or they ultimately accept them (doubtless after much sound and fury). ND may hope that if it can stay the course on ERT it will have broken the back of political resistance to further steps forward on headcount issues. There are significant risks to all this. While the public perception of ERT has hardly been uniformly positive, the sudden appearance of blank screens across the country will enter the public consciousness in a way which other measures may not have done. It is already clear that SYRIZA, the radical-left opposition, sees this as an opportunity to increase its leverage. Further strikes throughout this week are likely, and it is possible that the Government could be forced to back down following party meetings over the coming 48 hours. The next few days will provide an important indication of whether Greece is slowly working itself loose of past political constraints, or will be dragged back. Usually, having a newly minted emerging market economy switch off the state broadcaster would be an indication that you should be clinging onto the base of a helicopter to get out. Slightly different this time, I guess. Though only slightly. Tony's having login issues, hence the monologue. (Lisa getting involved. I suspect this is all because of the bloody Syrian whatever it is thingmy, which caused us to crank up security.) So. FTSE flat. finally here..many thanks for Lisa for coming to my rescue not for the first time either Aha! Hello. I'm not alone. FTSE 0.1% higher, 7 points or so, at 6348. Rather meek rally in the scheme of things, though there are some big headwinds. am glad to be here..trying to avoid any reference to the cricket obviously yes headwinds..Andy Haldane reminding people of a few of them this morning at the treasury select committee.. Ah, talking of a disorderly yield jump. brooke masters reports he warned "we could be blowing the biggest bond bubble in history" We are. He's right. what could possibly go wrong Have you watched this? yes that was very good..recommended An hour of Mark Blyth being brilliant. boing boing should feature more in our financial coverage sources for me, the really weird one is Japan...i just don't get it you ramp up the stimulus programmes, money printing bond yields rise and the banks get slaughtered how is that a good idea Because developed economies have no tools left except using an emetic money supply in the hope that it will create wealth. I'm not saying it's a good idea, I'm saying there are no other ideas. cheery note to start the day Let's push on to some movers shall we? at least we have some M&A talk to move one with Well, as one deal fails another rises. makes it very hard for news editors we can't default to merger wednesday..or merger monday etc And arbs. I've no idea how the City can support three-dozen merger arb brokers when there's only a couple of live deals. Anyway, we can kick off with Vodafone. Vodafone Group PLC (VOD:LSE): Last: 183.40, down 8.6 (-4.48%), High: 184.85, Low: 180.25, Volume: 50.68mBlock that market does not like the deal talks? Well, that fall is largely because Vodafone's ex a 6.92p dividend. Price that out and we're down 1.5% or so, which is meh. for clarity here is the headline Vodafone in early talks to buy Kabel Deutschland in €7bn deal By Daniel Thomas and Robert Budden Vodafone has made a preliminary approach for Kabel Deutschland, the German cable group, in a €7bn deal that would strengthen the British mobile operator's bundled TV-to-telecoms business. Yeah, I believe the official approach went in last week, though this has been on-off for months. so it is not big enough to complicate the Verizon situation? which is probably the main driver of the stock The Verizon situation's quite complicated enough, really. And people familiar with Vodafone have been keen to stress that we shouldn't be extrapolating anything from these talks. yep...at least it shows Voda is not sitting on its hands, waiting for the end game with the Verizon stand off People familiar also insist the talks remain "preliminary" (in spite of the deal clearly having been worked on since before February). And mutter, when pushed, about the potential for collapse and Vodafone being a disciplined buyer and yada yada yada. so is it a good idea to raise exposure to europe? It's an idea to get into quad play, even if Vodafone's doing it seven years too late. But I'd note there's some disagreement on how much Vod needs KD. quad play? is that something you do with dice and dungeon masters? Internet/phone/TV/Mobile on the same bill, Tone. Not sure why it's essential but apparently it is. Now, this comes after Vod signed a wholesale deal with Deutsche Telekom last month. Does this mean it needs KD less? Does it mean it can pay a smaller premium? Maybe. Allow me to cut to some comment. Here's Deutsche on that point. What might perturb investors is that this approach comes so soon after VOD signed a wholesale DSL deal with DT that was seen and touted as a solution to their convergent needs. To then approach KDG suggests that this is merely an infill and that infrastructure ownership is ultimately necessary to provide a fully competitive convergent offer. Unsurprisingly this is likely to read across into other markets such as Italy and Spain where VOD is losing competitive share, and also other European markets. Of VOD's three solutions to a convergent offer (build wholesale M&A), it would seem that M&A is now favoured. We have consistently argued that VOD needs to buy infrastructure across Europe to restore is competitive position in the face of convergent offers, and to potentially pre-empt new competition from cable operators facilitated by rapid rollout, low cost WiFi technology. As such we flagged KD8 as a potential target and today's news is consistent with this analysis. We previously discussed VOD/KD8 synergies of E8 per KD8 share and a further E16 to avoid the quad play threat from an independent KD8 mobile launch (Feb 14thth research). Assuming c. 50% of synergy offered on top of our E71 TP, this would imply an offer around E83 per share. This, in turn, would imply an EV around E10bn but this was reported by Handelsblatt this morning as a level VOD considered back in February. The paper reports that KD8 has rejected VOD's approach, suggesting that an offer price would need to be higher. This would move KD8 above 10x EV/EBITDA and we would expect a positive read across to Ziggo given their potential status as a target by Liberty Global (currently increasing their stake according to regulatory forecasts). UBS makes rather cautious noises regarding price .... Which I've heard discussed this morning around the E85 mark, though that seems premature. We're not in favour of Vodafone+cable in general across Europe, but we believe a bid for KDG would make more sense than most due to the size of the underlying German mobile business and the broadband base. On our arithmetic, a 10% premium with all cash implies +1-2% to Vodafone cash flow per share but ND:EBITDA of 2.6x 14E. And as for what's changed over the past month .... First, Vodafone signed a wholesale fibre deal with DT on 16th May; this was needed to cover all of Germany with fast fixed broadband regardless of whether a deal with KDG comes but may strengthen Vodafone's negotiating position. Second, however, Vodafone debt was higher than expected at the results and we have raised forecast spectrum costs for 2014E, so an all-cash deal for KDG could raise ND:EBITDA to 2.6x 14E which suggests to us that Vodafone equity or VZW sale/other financing might be required. "Horsefeathers," says Sector Watcher. If you look at terms from last month the deal between VOD and DT is only in an MOU stage and is only at wholesale. If VOD took DT's VDSL in huge volume long term then VOD would actually help DT generate better returns and VOD would have no competitive advantage. If Vodafone did have their own cable footprint; assuming 40% of customer base is able to migrate onto Kabel which covers 40% of population then you'd only need DT backhaul in 60% of network. (S) he's very much more aggressive on price ........... What price? Well 10x EV/EBITDA including €200m/year in synergies (from migrating Vodafone DSL lines onto the cable footprint where Kabel has presence) gets you to around €85-87/share for KD8. Vodafone wouldn't require a huge amount of additional leverage to complete a deal, especially with the decision to not pay out the £2.1bn dividend received from VZW last month which is "to be retained in the business for general business purposes." A higher price would seem a stretch at this point on the basis of requiring higher synergies, financing may be more difficult, and above 10x EV/EBITDA would be a very "punchy" asking price. As for the wider picture, I'll also share this rather blue sky thinking ..... If Vodafone want to create a real quad-play offering across Europe, they need a lot of cash. Which requires the VZW exit. Vodafone, in turn, could look to Liberty Global itself as the means to get scale quickly. LBTYA could give Vodafone the strategic advantages giving it a strong portfolio of northern European cable assets, rebalancing the group away from Southern Europe and providing it with a high speed broadband offering, cost synergies, an upgrade path for its own broadband customers and network backhaul options. But would Malone (eventually) sell out to Vodafone? Don't forget, he has done it before; selling out to AT&T in the US back in 1999? He used that cash to build out the European fortress. He could reverse engines and use cash to build scale in the US again, particularly as his recent stake in Charter Comms signals intent. Remember the MO of Darth Vader; "in cable you must have scale" to win. That's today's first sighting of the old "Vodafone-Liberty" rumour, though I doubt it'll be the last. Like the Darth Vader reference...that makes sense Vodafone Sector Watcher's always very readable. And quite often correct. other M&A or results Best just mention Severn .... Severn Trent PLC (SVT:LSE): Last: 1,780, down 157 (-8.11%), High: 1,800, Low: 1,747, Volume: 3.27mBlock First ever takeover failure in the UK water sector. And some of the morning press is weird, quite frankly. (Unnamed) shareholders grumping about management not engaging. This really is the wrong time to grump. the arbs complaining? Of course they are. There was a lot of long money on this one. Interesting that the shares have gone sub the pre-bid price too. Which was 1825p on May 13. That's against a 4.5% fall for the sector over the time, which implies a current price of 1743p. So perhaps they're still pricing in the possibility that something can be revived, albeit a slim possibility. Note LongRiver probably can't bid for another six months, without the usual whitewashes. have not seen much sell side-side reaction but for what it is worth S&P Capital suggest the shares are worth 18 quid on a fundamental basis... How do you get a "fundamental basis" for a utility in the middle of a bond bubble? Note this, from Cazenove .... 1743p (ie. the implied price subbing out the market fall) is a 15.4% premium to our March 2014 RAV which compares to UU on a 9.9% premium and PNN on a 7.5% premium. SVT is due to go ex-div its 45.51p final dividend on 19 June. However, we believe the main share price driver will be Ofwat's final methodology paper which it is due to publish over the summer. Ofwat has voiced its concerns about highly geared financial structures, concerns which may have become keener following the public outcry over Thames Water's recent results. The final methodology paper may provide some insight into what, if anything, Ofwat is minded to do about ensuring customers also benefit from increased sector leverage. Which was always the argument why no-one would bid for Severn, and it turned out someone did, so maybe. Bit more comment, this time Credit Suisse. Reported lack of engagement from the Board was surprising, in our view, given that the most recent offer of 2,200p/share appeared generous, at a c34% premium to our estimate of the FYmar14E RAB (based on actual CAPEX spend, assuming a fair-value debt adjustment of c£252m, compared with the company's reported c£774m). We note that our model suggests Severn Trent's RAB grows a cumulative of only c0.8% in real terms (c15% nominal) over the 2010-15 regulatory period, assuming the company undertakes a total of c£2.6b of CAPEX (consistent with guidance) and we do not anticipate significant RAB growth in real terms going forward. In any case, this episode suggests an acquisition of a listed water company may be more challenging than some have anticipated. Recall that United Utilities reportedly hired Goldman Sachs to bolster its takeover defences (The Sunday Times, April 14th) and would cost c£1.5-£2.5b more; and we expect Pennon's waste subsidiary is likely to deter buyers looking for pure-play regulated infrastructure assets, as are certain covenants in its recently issued £300m hybrid bond. On the other hand, we see private stakes of water companies being put up for sale which (e.g. a c£1.5b stake in Kelda, parent company of Yorkshire Water), which could be acquired more easily. While M&A remains the most significant near-term upside risk in UK Water, we do not anticipate a follow-up bid ahead of the 2014 price review for any of the three large listed companies. LongRiver's most recent offer of 2,200p/share represented a c41% premium to the FYmar13 RAB, on the consortium's numbers (which appear to be based on OFWAT-published RAB values, rather than the true values based on actual CAPEX incurred, upon which it would reflect a c46% premium, using what appear to be its fair value debt and pension deficit assumptions). We remain cautious that OFWAT could view the significant premium offered for the asset, and the Board's rejection of the offer as still not reflecting the value and long-term potential, as evidence it has been too generous with return allowances, particularly in light of recent comments from the OFWAT Chairman. We await the methodology determination for PR14 which should be published this summer (we expect in August) to see whether and how OFWAT responds to the high premium offered for SVT, as well as other recent transactions in the sector (premia of c30%) The most recent offer of 2,200p/share offer appeared generous, in our view, and we do not anticipate SVT shares returning to such a high level in the near to medium term, absent a further bid. Yesterday's closing price of 1,937p/share reflects a c25% premium to the FYmar14 RAB, on our numbers, while our target price of 1,530p/share puts SVT on a c12% premium. UU trades on a c15% premium to the FYmar14E RAB, and Pennon at a c9% premium (Viridor valued at c£1.9b). We continue to expect a challenging price review in 2014, and do not at this stage see upside beyond M&A potential another sector dries up then for the arbs I reckon there hasn't been a £1bn-plus takeover completed since Glencore ..... Ah, sorry. Meant UK. And was ignoring Elan, which isn't really London. yes...there were few more reports around this morning of other deals which we are pretty cautious on Japan's Marubeni to bid for Rio Tinto Australia coal stake -sources SYDNEY, June 12 (Reuters) - Japanese trading house Marubeni Corp is bidding for a 29 percent stake in Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto's Coal & Allied unit, valued at an estimated $2 billion, two sources familiar with the process said. It will be up against China's state-owned Shenhua Group Corp Ltd, India's Aditya Birla Group and Coal India, which are also eying bids for the stake in Coal & Allied and the Clermont mine that Rio has put up for sale. Marubeni declined to comment. By Clara Ferreira-Marques LONDON, June 11 (Reuters) - Miners Rio Tinto and Glencore Xstrata have held early-stage talks to consider a plan that could combine thermal coal assets in Australia as they battle low prices and high costs, two sources familiar with the plan said. Benchmark coal prices touched three-year lows last year and have languished below $100 a tonne since May 2012, even as labour and other costs soar in Australia. Both Rio and Glencore have large thermal coal mines in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. i think we think Rio might prefer a cleaner exit than a jv Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 2,706, up 3 (+0.11%), High: 2,735, Low: 2,674, Volume: 1.74mBlock and the $2bn might be ambitious Isn't a huge amount of Aussie coal production now below marginal cost? that would not surprise me... Someone was talking about mothballing much of Xstrata's old production there. Which'd mean a $1bn writedown for Glencore ..... Though Ivan's unlikely to care about that, as he can blame it on Mick. Sure we mentioned all this last week. Can't find it now. Oh well. Comments rather slow on the right, ROTR ..... Credit Suisse recently noted: that might have been the mothballing line you were talking about Yeah, that was it. where shall we turn to next? BAE, Sainsbury, house prices? Oh. Sainsbury I guess. Can't face talking about house prices .... just one line on those a close friend went to check on leytonstone for houses the agent had only three properties 1000 people had registered to see them @yogabba: I'd rather not. Yeah, tell me about it. and it is leytonstone.. lot of hackney refugees heading there I was forced into looking in earnest in Harlesden this morning. Harlesden. It's the new Acton apparently. where is harlesden? It's downwind of Kensal Rise, on the way to Wembley. time to move east bryce Look for the 700 or so train lines and the industrial slumlands blighting the landscape. Given the choice, I'd move east. The choice is not mine to have though. Anyway, enough dinner party I think. the underwhelming Sainsbury results then? that seems to be the reaction "Falling back towards the pack," is the theme. Outperformance, though less of it. Philip Dorgan of Panmure Always worth reading ........ Why we remain Holders: Slightly disappointing guidance, increased risk as a result of the buy-out of its banking jv and closeness to our Target Price, meant that we moved our recommendation from Buy to Hold with the full year results. We see no reason to change. We think that the implications of the ending of the space race and the re-focus of investment online will - eventually - lead to a revaluation of the sector, especially as logic then suggests significant and recurring returns of capital to shareholders. Our Blue Sky Analysis - which seeks to highlight the re-rating possibilities for those who win online - suggests decent potential long term upside for Sainsbury shares, to 540p, but we think that the shares will continue the recent pause for breath. And here's Jefferies. Reducing sales momentum... Sainsbury's Q1 update was broadly as anticipated with LFL growth of 0.8% a clear slowing on the 3.6% enjoyed in Q4 "12/13. The comping of last year's Diamond Jubilee week-end has certainly been an unhelpful feature, with JS trading the major events of the 2012 British summer particularly well. This is a challenge which will continue in coming months. Sainsbury confirmed that non-food (growing at over double the rate of food), convenience (with total growth of c.20%) and .com (with an increase of greater than 16%) all remain highly accretive to the group's growth profile. ...but still a solid performer. Sainsbury continues to outperform peers on LFL momentum (albeit by a much reduced rate in Q1 vs. Q4), aided by the major step up in its space programme of the past three years, partly funded by the cash call of June 2009. A helpful regional and demographic customer profile also remains a feature. This top line momentum cannot be viewed in isolation of a model that appears to be increasingly more capital intensive than that displayed by peers. and Clive Black from Shore Whilst we acknowledge and recognise the caution from Mr. King & Co., we need to be careful not to detach food retailing too much from what are brighter signals in the UK, albeit tentative from the mainstream economy. Whilst retaining caution, consumer confidence as mentioned by GfK NOP nudged up last month (to -22), whilst business confidence and purchasing managers data along with housing market material are demonstrably improving. Taking these factors into account, therefore, we find Sainsbury's commentary to be particularly downbeat and concerning about the company's prospects for the near-term along with the supermarket segment of the market. A well run company but a stock on which we lack convictionHowever, the chance of Sainsbury delivering upgrades anytime soon seems to be dissipating and perhaps the chance of more nudges down to estimates may be growing. Accordingly, we retain our reasonably long-standing HOLD stance on the stock, noting a fair valuation (2013/14F PER of 11 times [x], EV/EBITDA of 6.9x and offering a yield of 4.9% covered by 1.9x by EPS). For choice we see little to boost the shares upwards in the near-term and a disappointing Q2 could challenge forecasts. No news on King's plans, incidentally? That retirement story will be right eventually, unless he's planning to die in situ. mmm...when was the last ceo to do that Of old age? Not many. Most retire in their early 50s to a few decades of noddy-ism. And who would envy them that. you would expected a few unexpected nasty deaths in their prime though but i cant recall one maybe they have good health plans Well, this is a rather morbid turn. Let's move on. one ceo who might be wondering how long they will be in situ is is the other Mr King the world's most trailed boardoom move this morning when shareholders are unhappy with both the chairman and ceo, they tend to change the chairman first Which perhaps explains why chairmen like to give the bullet to CEOs. but i am now sure how how Invesco Perpetual - the biggest shareholder - views Mr King one research house this morning was raising the prospect of change in the future from Edison Investment Research via our sector watcher Carola Hoyos Edison view, "While significant Saudi negotiations remain ongoing it would be foolish to remove a key architect of the strategy in the region in Ian King, however once that is achieved, and focus turns elsewhere, those plans may just come out." and a longer version Roger Johnston, analyst at Edison Investment Research, said: "The long trailed successor to BAE's Chairman Dick Olver has been confirmed as Sir Roger Carr. We view it as an option that will largely be welcomed given his considerable experience in areas with significant government exposure. We think in this sense he will provide a natural continuation of approach from Olver, although focus will very much be on furthering BAE's international development as much as managing ministers at home as budgets are squeezed and exports provide some haven. The next question will be whether this will start the ball rolling on further management change and although many may see the failed EADS merger as a signal to refresh, we believe that Carr will not be swinging the axe from day one, but having a robust succession plan will be a key objective. While significant Saudi negotiations remain ongoing it would be foolish to remove a key architect of the strategy in the region in Ian King, however once that is achieved, and focus turns elsewhere, those plans may just come out. Yogabba: don't know then well enough to judge how are the shares bryce? BAE Systems PLC (BA.:LSE): Last: 392.70, up 0.1 (+0.03%), High: 396.60, Low: 391.80, Volume: 1.45mBlock (@Finster: don't be annoying. Which typo?) Best just mention BSkyB .... British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (BSY:LSE): Last: 794.00, up 16 (+2.06%), High: 798.50, Low: 779.50, Volume: 1.20mBlock There's a rather speculative article in the Telegraph about News Corp bidding again. sources close to the company have suggested that it could make another tilt at BSkyB before the next general election And, yes, possibly. presumably worried that if labour actually won it might be more difficult for sky? Presumably. Though let's be very clear this is fantasy M&A. Espirito, I think, was pitching the same idea yesterday. We notice that NewsCorp currently owns a 40% stake in BSkyB and James Murdoch recently referred to the 2010 failed bid for the remaining 60% as "unfinished business." We set a potential takeover valuation of 990p for BSkyB (26% potential upside), based on historic transaction multiples. The announcement of the spin-off last year followed allegations of phone hacking and improper payments at the UK newspapers, which has already cost NewsCorp almost $300m in legal and other costs. The trials of former News International executives and editors, including Rebekah Brooks and Andy Coulson, are due to begin in September and may lead to further potential liabilities for the group. James Murdoch, who at the time of the alleged irregularities was chairman of News International and of BSkyB, is currently still a non-executive member of BSkyB's board. The Murdoch family owns 39.4% of the class B voting stock and and can count on support from Prince Alwaleed bin Talal with another 7% to approve the proposed split. The resulting companies will remain under Mr Murdoch's family control and will inherit News Corp's dual class share structure, plus a new "poison pill" provision (15% ownership limit for any other shareholder).Time Warner and Tribune Co. have also announced plans to spin off their own publishing businesses. The new News Corp will include the entirety of News and information businesses plus REA, News Corp's majority stake in an online property listings business, Fox Sports Australia, with its valuable Australian rules football rights, and a 50% stake in Foxtel, the pay-TV provider. The "publishing" business itself includes newspapers, books, News America Marketing's advertising inserts and Amplify (NWS" recently rebranded education arm). All of which is logical, though if it was happening I'd expect it to leak, simply for the reason that it leaked last time. ah the telegraph report was by the same reporter behind a story earlier this year on M&A speculation around the FT A fantasy M&A specialist. Nice job. And not unlike what we do, just in case anyone thinks I'm lobbing rocks around the greenhouse. mmm..time to move on Actually, I think we're done. a few things to note Oh, hold on, as for the BSkyB price hike ............ Sky TV customers face price hikes of up to 10% on 1st September, citing a message on Sky's website. We note that it is required under regulation to advertise the fact that TV prices may increase. We forecast an average price increase of c2.5%. If Sky was to increase prices by 10%, it might boost revenue in year 1 but this could also lead to a spike in churn and a significant drop in gross additions, with potential value destruction longer term. Furthermore, increasing prices faster than inflation and competition from new entra ... nts (with new products at lower price points) are incongruous in our view. And to wrap up, Tony? bloomie had a good piece ib traders slamming the close to rig currency rates to profit off clients and fastFT has just broken a story The FT understands that Barclays and the British Bankers" Association are pushing for the creation of a Banking Standards Taskforce, led by the chief executives of the "Big Four" UK banks, as Britain's beleaguered lenders prepare their response to the imminent publication of a 600-page report by the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, reports the banking editor Patrick Jenkins: According to people briefed on the idea, senior Barclays executives have discussed the idea with Anthony Browne, chief executive of the BBA, and now an effort is underway to convince the heads of the other banks that it makes sense for the Big Four to co-ordinate their implementation of the commission's recommendations, assuming they are endorsed by the government and the banks themselves. isn't that what the BBA is meant to be? No - no - it's a Taskforce. ah much more important then That's entirely different to an Authority. and there was a very bullish report for the oil groups EA predicts summer spike in crude demand By Javier Blas, Commodities Editor The Paris-based IEA said on Wednesday that refinery "throughputs look set for a step change" over the summer, adding: "Crude supply would struggle to keep up with refining demand until price effects helped rebalance the market nowhere for lunch Bryce? sandwich and watching the cricket for me... many thanks for having me... Nowhere for me either. I don't go to lunch any more, because I'm saving up for the deposit on a bloody studio flat above a shop overlooking the Overground freight yard in Harlesden. journalists are good leading indicators of property values Harlesden will be the place to be soon that or canning town When we buy, you should sell? I agree. I've been a reverse indicator for the housing market all my adult life. where we buy....it is an old theory of mine Anyway, thanks Tony. And thanks ROTR. journalist are middle class professionals who go into grottier areas than other middle calss professionals..they bspend more money than they should to support bars and restaurants..and then they write about the areas, making them appear more trendy Fair enough. ... Rabble has been off topic for the entire session but so have we, so we've no grounds to complain. Let's wrap this up.