Latest polling shows election is now a contest We now have a contest. On ReachTEL's polling, it is a contest the Coalition is still likely to win. But now it will have to work for it. The ReachTEL surveys show Kevin Rudd's ascension has lifted Labor's vote after preferences by 10 per cent in three western suburbs seats in Sydney and Melbourne - the areas where Labor's vote had collapsed most alarmingly. For Labor, that is even better than what was promised three weeks ago when ReachTEL asked people how they would vote if Mr Rudd became leader. But it is still not good enough for Labor to win the election. The polls in May and early June found swings averaging 16 per cent against Labor in its heartland seats of Blaxland and McMahon in western Sydney, and Maribyrnong in western Melbourne. Although boosting Labor's two-party vote by 10 per cent, Mr Rudd's return still leaves a swing of 6 per cent to the Liberals. In Melbourne's eastern suburbs, it is a different story. In middle-class Chisholm, held by Speaker Anna Burke, Friday's poll found virtually no swing at all. Ms Burke would hold her seat easily, her vote down just 0.6 per cent. The results broadly match those of a national ReachTEL poll taken for the Seven Network on Thursday night. It found that Mr Rudd's election had lifted Labor's two-party vote from 42 per cent to 48 per cent - a big lift but not big enough. And that was a poll taken on Mr Rudd's honeymoon night. The marriage will have to work out pretty well for him to improve. It is interesting that the polls show Mr Rudd doing better among men than women - in sharp contrast to Ms Gillard. In these Labor seats, 45 per cent of men had a favourable opinion of Mr Rudd, 36 per cent unfavourable. Among women, it was 37 per cent for, 38 per cent against. That might be an instinctive response to Mr Gillard's removal. Or it might be something more durable. Also, the poll found a huge difference between Sydney and Melbourne in support for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott. Friday's poll in Labor's heartland found Mr Rudd preferred to Mr Abbott by 61-39 in the two Melbourne seats. In the western Sydney seats, his lead was just 54-46. Given that five of Labor's 20 most marginal seats are in western Sydney, and 10 of them are in NSW, that is good for Mr Abbott. The nationwide poll found Mr Rudd led Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, but only just, by 51-49. That is not enough either,if Mr Rudd is to haul Labor back from the electoral wilderness. But it is enough to make the election a real contest.