Economic Outlook: easing anticipated after BoE governor bows out Bank of England governor Mervyn King will chair his last meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee before stepping down after 16 years in charge. The MPC is highly unlikely to announce any policy changes this week, but once new governor Mark Carney gets his feet under the table at the start of July, change can be expected fairly swiftly. Britain's surprisingly positive first-quarter GDP figure has proved less convincing on closer inspection, being almost entirely due to businesses" inventory stocking. Exports fell. Poor subsequent retail sales data for April and a drop in business lending in May suggest that Mr Carney is likely to stick to his original indications of enacting further quantitative easing in the second half of the year. "We suspect Mr Carney will be keen to try and build up escape velocity from the economy's extended softness and will be keen to establish his presence," said Howard Archer of IHS. The contrasting performances of Britain's manufacturing and services sectorsare likely to be reflected in this week's PMI data: manufacturing on Monday is likely to be flat, while services on Wednesday by contrast are likely to grow strongly. As Mr Carney leaves the Bank of Canada, Canadian employment data due out on Friday will be scrutinised amid fears the economy is weakening. Although overall growth is expected, further private sector job cuts could be a worrying signal, says Madhur Jha, of HSBC: "The 105,400 jobs cut in March and April represents a pace of private sector job cuts previously only seen during recessions." The European Central Bank also meets this week. The chances of the bank following up last month's interest rate action with steps to ease lending to small businesses are reduced, after the German and French governments announced their own bilateral action on this issue. "It is clear that the ECB would again like to take a back seat and let eurozone governments do some work," says James Knightley, of ING. The bank may, however, consider cutting its deposit rate, to deter banks from hoarding cash. The second release of eurozone first quarter GDP on Wednesday is likely to finger trade and investment as the culprits for the region's ongoing recession, which saw unemployment hit another record high last week. By contrast German data due out this week are expected to confirm that its economic recovery is well under way. German industrial orders on Thursday are likely to show the first year-on-year growth this year, while the trade balance on Friday is expected to remain steadily positive. In the US, the recent series of positive data could be reversed with the latest ISM manufacturing index expected to drop close to breakeven. This is often treated as a leading GDP indicator and so could dent investor confidence in the economic revival. A modest rise in employment is expected, with the headline unemployment rate expected to plateau at 7.5 per cent. Consumer credit figures due out on Friday are expected to show burgeoning growth but the soaring burden of student debt is worrying in terms of sustaining consumption in the US over the longer term. Chinese trade and industrial production figures due out over the weekend will be watched for any further indications of a slowdown, in the light of its recent weak flash manufacturing PMI.