discussing the dangers not economic treason Recession talk not bananas Leading economist Saul Eslake has invoked the "banana" defence, mocking the Prime Minister's claim that economists should not be talking up a recession. Four years ago, the Rudd-Gillard government prepared us for the worst. It forecast a 100 per cent chance of a recession. Treasurer Wayne Swan's 2009 budget overview intoned: "A recession in Australia has become inevitable, with unavoidable consequences for Australian jobs." As it turned out, Australia avoided a recession - in part because of that budget. The warning helped. It built support for the programs needed to keep Australia afloat. Four years on, there's talk of a recession again. This time it's a 25 per cent chance. But the Prime Minister speaks as if it's treason. Keeping mum: Julia Gillard said careless talk could threaten jobs. "Confidence matters," she told the Committee for Economic Development of Australia on Monday. The biggest mistake we could make would be to talk ourselves into unnecessary economic weakness. Amid (presumably humorous) talk of taking journalists to the Australian Communications and Media Authority, she said tossing around the "R" word (she wouldn't use it) threatened jobs and growth. There's another way of looking at it. It is that open discussion of early warnings can bring about the changes needed to sustain growth, as happened in 2009. It is to be hoped that whoever is in power after the next election encourages rather than shuts down such discussion. Later in the day, shadow treasurer Joe Hockey promised he would encourage it. He told the same conference it would be "the height of hubris" to dismiss out of hand dire warnings from respected observers. One of them is the former Labor adviser Professor Ross Garnaut. Hockey promised to "listen and prepare." If lower interest rates, the lower dollar and the automatic blowing out of the budget weren't enough to stave off recession, he would be prepared to do more, like Labor did in 2009 - although he said he would avoid pink batts.