Opec expects demand for its crude to fall Opec, the oil producers" cartel, expects demand for its crude to hit a five year-low next year, as the US shale boom continues to eat into its share of the global oil market. In its first outlook for 2014 the Vienna-based organisation forecast the strongest oil demand growth in four years on the back of improved prospects for global growth. But its analysts said that the increase in demand would be more than offset by higher output from non-Opec producers such as the US and Canada. The result would be higher spare production capacity as well as a rise in global stocks of crude, which could weigh on the price of oil. "This would imply a further build in global crude inventories, which currently stand at high levels," Opec analysts said in their regular monthly report. The producers" cartel expects demand for its crude to fall 0.3m barrels a day to 29.6m b/d in 2014. That would be the lowest level of demand since 2009, when Opec believes the call on its crude fell to 29.3m b/d during the financial crisis, according to figures in the organisation's annual report published last week. It would also follow an expected fall in demand of 0.4m b/d this year. Opec members have a production target of 30m b/d, but produced 30.4m b/d in June, according to secondary sources. The shale oil boom, which led to US production growing the most on record last year, is reducing demand for foreign oil from the world's largest consumer. US imports from Opec members such as Nigeria and Angola have been cut sharply in recent years. As well as reduced demand, Opec members are facing lower prices for their crude oil. The Opec reference basket, which includes the crudes produced across its members, averaged $105.09 a barrel in June. That was a decline of almost $7 from last year, when Opec members reaped record oil export earnings thanks to buoyant oil prices. Opec has been consistently more sceptical on the prospects for output growth from the US than other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration. But in its monthly report on Friday it said non-OPEC supply was expected to grow 1.1m b/d in 2014, slightly higher than the increase of 1m b/d forecast for this year.