China growth may hit about 4pc by 2020 without reform, says IMF THE International Monetary Fund has warned that Chinese economic growth could halve to about 4 per cent around the end of the decade if the country doesn't carry through on promises to remake the economy and boost the role of domestic consumption. "Time is running out on the current model," of depending on exports overseas and investments in infrastructure and capital-intensive industries at home, the IMF said in its annual review of China's economy.