Lots of Conservative Party members prefer Ukip's policies Nigel Farage represents something of a fatal attraction for a significant number of traditionally Tory voters. Polls conducted in the run-up to Ukip's local election surge suggested that some 60 per cent of its supporters voted Conservative in 2010, while a survey released by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft at the end of June indicated that almost a quarter of those who picked David Cameron's party at the last election would today plump for what he once branded a bunch of "fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists." More recent research, however, reveals something even more alarming for the Prime Minister: it's not just Tory voters who are tempted by Ukip; it's also his own grassroots members. At the beginning of June, and with the help of YouGov and the McDougall Trust, we surveyed 852 Conservative Party members - enough to ensure that we can be 95 per cent confident that their responses are a true reflection of the membership as a whole, plus or minus 4 per cent. What we found is that at least a fifth and very possibly even just over a quarter of the Tory grassroots would seriously consider voting for Ukip in a general election. Asked whether they'd think about it at a European election, the figures are even more worrying for the Conservative high command: in that case, over a third of its grassroots members are wondering whether to give Ukip a go next year. In both cases, we asked Tory members to rate how seriously they would consider voting for Ukip on a scale running from zero ("never") to 10 ("definitely"). If we take all those giving a rating of between seven and 10 as seriously considering switching, then 26 per cent of the Tory grassroots might be tempted to vote Ukip at a general election. If we use the same method and apply it to European elections, then our survey suggests that fully 37 per cent of ordinary Conservative Party members would seriously consider voting for Ukip in May 2014. Of course, any glass can be half-full as well as half-empty. CCHQ is bound to want to point out that our survey does not suggest that those flirting with Mr Farage constitute a majority of the party's members. That said, even if we turn round the telescope to look at those who, when asked to rate how seriously they would consider voting for Ukip, put down zero to three, it remains the case that only around half of grassroots Conservatives (50 per cent at a general election and 43 per cent at the Europeans) can be counted on not to defect, even if only within the privacy of the polling booth. Remember, we are talking here about card-carrying Conservatives, not simply more volatile Tory voters - in some ways the people who should be most likely to stick with the party through thick and thin. The question, then, is why this might be happening. What, in other words, distinguishes those who are tempted to vote Ukip from those who seem rather more immune to Mr Farage's clearly considerable charms? Fortunately, our survey gives something of an insight. As well as asking for their views on particular policies, on the Coalition, and on the relationship between leaders and led, we asked our respondents questions that would allow us to locate them on the two dominant dimensions of politics - the Left-Right (or state-market) scale and another that taps into how socially liberal or conservative ("authoritarian" in the jargon) we all are. We also asked them about where they placed themselves on a composite Left-Right scale and where they placed Cameron and Ukip. We then subjected our data to statistical analysis. This analysis showed that demographic factors have little bearing on whether Conservative members would seriously consider voting for Ukip. Ideology and perceptions of the leadership count for far more. What emerges is that those Tory members who are most tempted by Ukip are actually significantly more centrist when it comes to the economy and public services than those who are least tempted; however, they are also significantly more socially conservative. Perhaps not surprisingly, they are more worried about immigration and Europe than those least tempted by Ukip: only 57 per cent of the latter group want to leave the EU right now, compared with 92 per cent of those most tempted by Ukip. But those most taken with Mr Farage are also far less comfortable with gay marriage than those who are least taken with him: 32 per cent of more loyal Tory members support its introduction - twice the proportion expressing support among those members most tempted by Ukip. The latter are also much more likely to wish they hadn't gone into coalition with the Lib Dems. What will also alarm the Tory high command is the fact that fully three-quarters of those members most likely to consider voting for Ukip feel disrespected by their leadership - compared with only four out of 10 of those least tempted to stray. On the other hand, at least that problem might be cured by a little TLC on Mr Cameron's part. Just as worrying - possibly even more so - for the Prime Minister is the fact that our analysis suggests that, ultimately, one of the most important reasons driving some of his members to think about voting for Mr Farage is the fact that they feel much closer ideologically to Ukip than they do to their own leader. Quite what he can do about that between now and the next election is anyone's guess. Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary, University of London; Paul Webb is Professor of Politics at Sussex University