Markets Live: Investors cheer Helicopter Ben 4:35pm: The financial markets have not fully priced in a cut to the cash rate in August, despite the surprise rise in the June unemployment rate, as they were waiting for the much-anticipated inflation figures for the second-quarter of this year. What I think the market is now saying is, 'So long as we don't see an acceleration in inflation next week, the data that we received today should be enough to lower the RBA's inflation forecast.' 4:31pm: The spot gold price has had an impressive day in local trade, buoyed by the Bernanke comments, prices are up 2.7 per cent to $US1292.27 an ounce. 4:25pm: China shares extended gains in afternoon trade, lifting Hong Kong markets, after official media reported financing rules may be partially relaxed for real estate firms. In late trade, the CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings was up 5.4 per cent. The Shanghai Composite Index spiked 4 percent. The Hang Seng Index was up 2.5 percent, while the China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong soared 3.8 percent. The official China Securities Journal reported today that authorities may, subject to certain conditions, relax rules on financing for listed-real estate developers, citing unidentified industry players. With the property sector affecting 40 other industries in the world's second-largest economy, investors interpreted the article as a form of policy easing that lifted other cyclical sectors too. 3:56pm: One of the key factors being raised by economists following the jobless rate rise data and whether the RBA will cut rates again in August is the inflation data. Inflation has trended near the bottom of the central bank's 2 to 3 per cent target band. While the RBA expects the inflation rate to remain subdued, if it is lower than its forecast, it could cause the central bank to cut again, Barclays chief economist Kieran Davies said. "The RBA is expecting annual underlying inflation to slow from 2.5 per cent to 2.25 per cent, which implies that quarterly inflation picks up from 0.4 per cent in [the first quarter] to 0.5 per cent in [the second quarter]," Mr Davies said. This suggests that the RBA is prepared for a low result, although another downside surprise could see the RBA act again on its bias even though the exchange rate has fallen very sharply over recent weeks. 3:41pm: Just because it's low doesn't mean it can't get any lower. That at least is the view of investment bank UBS which has cut further its coal price forecasts for the next six months. It now sees good quality coking coal (which is mostly used in steelmaking) to fall to $US140 by year end, down from prices closer to $US170 earlier in the year. Lower quality coking coal is seen at $US102 a tonne by year end down from $US121 a tonne earlier in the year with coal used for pulverised coal injection (directly into blast furnaces) to fal to $US112 a tonne. The gloom also extends to steaming coal which it sees holding at $US95 a tonne, before dipping further, to $US90 a tonne by mid-2014. The ongoing weakness here is in contrast to coking coal, which it sees rising to $US160 a tonne by mid-2014 with lower quality coking coal edging up to $US118 a tonne and PCI coal to $US130 a tonne. In other words, the pressure will remain on NSW coal producers which mostly produce middling quality coking coals and steaming coals. 3:20pm: Being a trader these days is tough, especially when you get a hawkish (albeit stale) statement from the Fed collective and then subsequent dovish rhetoric from the Chairman a couple of hours later, IG's Chris Weston reflects: Volatility has predictably increased over the past 12 hours and the end result is a weaker USD and a bid in US treasuries and stronger equities. The FOMC minutes can be overlooked, and to be fair they have probably just caused confusion amongst the market, especially as they preceded the recent strong payrolls report and subsequent back-up in rates. However, if you were to put the meeting in isolation, you'd say the minutes were hawkish as roughly half of the board sits in the camp that believes purchases should stop by the end of the year. Price action in every asset class came alive on Ben Bernanke's narrative; while his comments were clearly dovish, the key fact that he stipulated was that the Fed funds rate would not automatically rise when (and of course if) US joblessness hits 6.5%, and this has firmly dictated to the market that the 6.5% level is a threshold, not a trigger. Of course the prospect of low rates for longer has helped emerging markets, which of course are highly sensitive to rising US yields, having seen strong outflows of late as investors chase higher return in the US. China is on a roll with the CSI up 4.5%, with the suite of Chinese indices at their day's highs. Further rumours of a reserve ratio requirement (RRR) cut and other measures to keep growth above the key 7.5% level this year have made their way through to the market, and while we are pleased this index is gaining traction, we feel those buying on the prospect of an easing announcement from the PBOC could be disappointed. 3:09pm: CSR says the ""significant"" decline in the value of the Australian dollar will be ""positive"" for the company, after a year which had elements of ""the good, the bad and the ugly"" shareholders were told at today's annual meeting. ""We've seen a significant correction in the value of the Australian dollar recently,"" the group's chairman, Jeremy Sutcliffe, told shareholders, ""and that's a positive for CSR"." Sutcliffe said one of the lows of the year was the $196 million write-down against the value of the Viridian glass unit, the ""bad"" was the lack of any pick up in construction sector activity while, along the good, was the improvement in shareholder return which was marked by the share price rise and the fact that its building materials arm outperformed competitors. In mid-afternoon trading, its shares were up 3.5 cents at $2.305, continuing their rally from their mid-June low of $1.95. Over the past month or so, some analysts have upgraded their recommendation for CSR shares to investors, but with the share price moves to remain hamstrung by the price of aluminium, given the group's direct exposure to production of the metal. 2:52pm: Launa Inman, the chief executive of struggling surfwear company Billabong, has claimed the key US market has begun to turn around from its recessionary like conditions although Europe remains mired in the doldrums. Speaking to action sports industry news site shop-eat-surf.com, Inman said she has witnessed first hand the lift in performance in the US which accounts for half of Billabong's more than $1.55 billion in annual sales. Europe is the issue, and Australia has had their issues as well. While America did have its issues, it has turned the corner, particularly in the last six months," Inman is quoted as saying in her interview with the US website. "We've really seen it,"" she added. ""The most important region is the Americas, and that is where our biggest sales come from, it's got the greatest opportunity and it actually has turned. We are very happy with it. Billabong shares are up 2.2 per cent at 22 cents, continuing their recent wild ride that saw shares slump to as low as 12.2 cents, before more than doubling to as high as 31 cents earlier this week. 2:37pm: The Bank of Japan says an economic recovery is underway and keeps monetary policy steady, its most optimistic view in two-and-half years reflecting the positive impact of a weakening yen and its massive monetary stimulus on activity. The central bank made no major changes to its forecast that consumer inflation will accelerate in the coming years to near 2 per cent in the business year ending March 2016, a key target for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's drive to reflate the economy. As widely expected, the BoJ voted unanimously to maintain its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen. "Japan's economy is starting to recover moderately," the central bank said in a statement after its two-day meeting, revising up its assessment for the seventh straight month. There's no material change to the BoJ's forecasts from April. Basically, the economy is recovering in line with its main scenario," says Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo. 2:19pm: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has called for a new productivity pact between business, unions and the federal government to boost the economy. Rudd announced the initiative, which mirrors the prices and income Accord struck between unions and the Hawke Labor government 30 years ago, during a speech to the National Press Club in Canberra. ""The truth is, if we are to drive a new national competitiveness agenda we need to have government, business and unions working as much as possible together - pushing in the same strategic policy direction for the overall wellbeing of our national economy,"" Rudd said. 2:10pm: One positive takeaway from the June labour force data is the slight rise in the participation rate - the number of people working or looking for work - by 0.1 per cent to 65.3 per cent, Citi economists Paul Brennan and Josh Williamson said. "Another decline would have suggested that potential workers were getting discouraged, whereas the data shows a solid gain in the labour force of 34,000 in the month," the economists said. They added that the economy was producing more jobs on average per month so far this year - 17,500 - than it did in 2012 (13,600). This shows that labour demand has remained mostly resilient in the face of rebalancing concerns. However, they pointed out that the full-time unemployment had lifted to 6.1 per cent, the highest since the financial crisis. This has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year as employers have shifted some full-time positions to part-time. In terms of raw numbers, there are more officially registered unemployed now - 709,000 - than at any time in the last fifteen years. Jobs growth, although better in 2013 than in 2012, is not keeping pace with gains in working age population. 1:53pm: Steel and Iron Ore producer Arrium may expand its mining focus to gold and other commodities, according to new chief executive Andrew Roberts. Speaking today at the Melbourne Mining Club, Mr Roberts said there were gold and copper prospects near the company's iron ore mines, and Arrium would be 'open minded' over what commodities it exports in the future. "There are ferrous and non-ferrous opportunities," he said. Mr Roberts said the company wanted to build on the strategic advantage its Whyalla port gave it in South Australia. 1:32pm: Oil prices have slipped - but not much - after a bull run as traders took profits from gains fuelled by a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, analysts said. New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude for delivery in August, was down 25 cents to $US106.27 a barrel in morning trade. Brent North Sea crude for August delivery shed 32 cents at $108.19. "Traders have paused to take stock following the huge overnight gains over the EIA data," David Lennox, resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. "This is prime US driving season, and the inventory drawdown indicates a healthy pickup in demand," he said. 1:17pm: Meanwhile, at the National Press, new/old Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has called for a new productivity pact between business, unions and the federal government to boost the economy. Mr Rudd says while there may be disagreements between stakeholders, there's a huge shared interest in growing the national economic pie. He outlined seven broad policy areas which would require work under the pact, including domestic electricity price regulation, labour market rigidity, regulatory imposts on business, education and training and improving operating conditions for small business. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd addresses the National Press Club in Canberra on Thursday July 11. 1:13pm: William Leyes at CMC Markets says the jobs data can be seen as moderately positive but equities markets remain nonplussed. ""But,"" he says, ""so far it hasn't really changed the current trajectory of the index. Perhaps yesterday's weak Chinese data is still weighing on investors" minds."" CommSec's Juliette Saly suggested the market was more focussed the Fed chairman's assurances that the central bank would continue to stimulate the world's largest economy. ""Essentially what we're seeing is a bit of a buoyancy effect,"" she said. And on the jobs data, she they were ""pretty much bang on in line with what we were expecting.""