The Run Home: Where will your club finish on the AFL ladder? Richmond's finals fate is in its own hands. Dayne Zorko will be celebrating if the Lions can knock off Geelong to claim an unlikely finals berth. Picture: Jonathon Searle Source: CourierMail WITH one round to go the ladder is far from settled. Matt Windley does the maths and predicts where your club will finish. HAWTHORN 72pts 137.1% R23: Sydney, ANZ Stadium Matt says: Pretty simple equation. If Hawthorn wins it will claim the minor premiership and play against Sydney again the following week, most likely at the MCG on Friday night. If the Hawks lose and Geelong win then Alastair Clarkson's men will finish second and play Fremantle, probably at Etihad Stadium on the Saturday afternoon. Who said there was nothing on the line in the game against the Swans? Click here for a better chat experience GEELONG 68pts 138.0% R23: Brisbane Lions, Simonds Stadium Matt says: Can still finish top, can still finish third. If Geelong defeats the Brisbane Lions it will finish first if Hawthorn loses against Sydney on Friday night. That would likely result in an MCG qualifying final against Sydney on the following Friday or Saturday. If the Cats beat the Lions but the Hawks also win then Chris Scott's men will finish second and then play against Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, probably on the Saturday afternoon. If they somehow lose to the Lions, a Dockers win would see the Cats slip to third and travel to Perth for a qualifying final the following Saturday. FREMANTLE 66pts 141.8% R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium Matt says: Unlikely to shift from third. To jump to second the Dockers would have to win and hope Geelong somehow loses to the Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium. To drop to fourth the Dockers would have to lose to St Kilda, Sydney would have to defeat Hawthorn and those two results would also have to erase the percentage gap of 6.3 per cent between the two sides. If ladder positions remain as they are now, Fremantle will play Geelong in the qualifying final, probably at Etihad Stadium on the Saturday afternoon. SYDNEY 62pts 135.5% R23: Hawthorn, ANZ Stadium Matt says: To finish anywhere other than fourth Sydney would have to defeat Hawthorn comfortably and hope Fremantle suffers a shock - and big - loss to lowly St Kilda. A loss to Hawthorn on Friday night would guarantee that they play the Hawks again the following week. Matt says: Richmond has its week one destiny in its own hands after the big win against Greater Western Sydney. A win over Essendon this week would pretty much guarantee a fifth-placed finish - barring a huge, huge win by Collingwood against North Melbourne the following day - which would mean the Tigers will play the lucky team that steals eighth spot as a result of the Bombers' expected forfeiture. That team could be Carlton, which beat the Tigers a couple of weeks ago, or even the Kangaroos, who smashed the Tigers a couple of months ago. That team, however, could also be Adelaide, Brisbane Lions or West Coast, which would be a much better result for Damien Hardwick's men - but playing an interstate team could also mean the Tigers are punted to Etihad Stadium for their elimination final. Matt says: Collingwood appears pretty-well locked in to sixth place. A Richmond loss to Essendon on Saturday night means Collingwood will finish fifth with a win over North Melbourne. That could be a good result for the Magpies as that would - assuming they win their first final - potentially put them in the path of Sydney for a semi-final at ANZ Stadium. Finishing sixth would mean an MCG elimination final for the Pies against Port Adelaide on Sunday, September 8. The winner of that game could, if Fremantle loses its qualifying final, be headed for Perth in the semis. Matt says: Unfortunately for Essendon, its gallant win over Carlton on Saturday night will probably count for nothing. The Bombers being stripped of their points would create a frantic battle for eighth spot between five sides. PORT ADELAIDE 48pts 102.6% R23: Carlton, AAMI Stadium Matt says: Can't move of its own accord. Essendon losing points would lock Port Adelaide into seventh spot. CARLTON 40pts 107.0% R23: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium Matt says: If Essendon is out ... Carlton will make the finals with a win over Port Adelaide. If the Blues lose they can still finish eighth, but only if Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne both lose and the winner of the Adelaide v West Coast game doesn't pass them on percentage. BRISBANE LIONS 40pts 89.1% R23: Geelong, Simonds Stadium Matt says: If Essendon is out ... Brisbane Lions will make the finals with a win over Geelong coupled with a Carlton loss to Port Adelaide. Daniel Wells wasn't happy after the Kangaroos' loss to Hawthorn, but the Roos could still sneak into the finals. North Melbourne will make the finals if Carlton and Brisbane Lions both lose and it defeats Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday. ADELAIDE 36pts 103.7% R23: West Coast, Patersons Stadium Adelaide can make the finals if each of Carlton, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne lose and it defeats West Coast. However, the Blues' loss and the Crows' win would also have to result in a four per cent swing to Brenton Sanderson's men - which is quite possible. WEST COAST 36pts 99.2% R23: Adelaide, Patersons Stadium West Coast can make the finals if each of Carlton, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne lose and it defeats Adelaide. However, the Blues' loss and the Eagles' win would also have to result in an eight per cent swing to John Worsfold's men - which is unlikely. GOLD COAST 28pts 87.4% R23: Greater Western Sydney, Metricon Stadium Matt says: After a disappointing loss to St Kilda, Gold Coast will be desperate to finish off what has otherwise been a fantastic season with a win against Greater Western Sydney. Can't finish any higher but could be overtaken by the Dogs. WESTERN BULLDOGS 28pts 83.6% R23: Melbourne, Etihad Stadium Matt says: The Bulldogs were gallant again against the Brisbane Lions on the weekend. The Dogs need to defeat Melbourne after suffering a shock loss to the Demons in Round 14. A Dogs win combined with a Gold Coast loss will see the club jump to 14th on the ladder. ST KILDA 16pts 78.8% R23: Fremantle, Etihad Stadium Matt says: St Kilda gave it's long-suffering fans something to cheer about last weekend, but the task this weekend is extremely tough against a Fremantle side still in the running for a top-two spot. The Saints will finish 16th but hopefully Justin Koschitzke, Stephen Milne and Jason Blake are sent off in fitting fashion. MELBOURNE 8pts 52.9% R23: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium Matt says: Melbourne can still get the wooden spoon if it loses to the Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney defeats Gold Coast. Matt says: There remain two points of interest in the Giants' final game. A win against Gold Coast could hand off the wooden spoon to Melbourne - assuming the Demons lose to the Bulldogs. And Jeremy Cameron still remains in contention for the Coleman Medal despite a goalless effort against Richmond last week. Hawthorn 19-3 2. Geelong 18-4 3. Fremantle 17-1-4 4. Sydney 15-1-6 5. Richmond 15-7 6. Collingwood 15-7 7. Port Adelaide 13-9 8. Adelaide 10-12 10. Brisbane Lions 10-12 11. North Melbourne 9-13 12. West Coast 9-13 13. Gold Coast 8-14 14. Western Bulldogs 8-14 15. St Kilda 4-18 16. Melbourne 2-20 17. Greater Western Sydney 1-21 18. Essendon 14-8* Which would mean ... WEEK 1 FINALS: Hawthorn v Sydney, MCG (Friday night) Geelong v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium (Saturday afternoon) Richmond v Carlton, MCG (Saturday night) Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG (Sunday afternoon) WEEK 2 FINALS: Loser of Haw v Syd // winner of Rich v Carl Loser of Geel v Frem // winner of Coll v P.A