Fantasy Football - Receivers and Tight Ends to Avoid - NYTimes.com David Zalubowski/Associated Press Wes Welker should be a favorite target for Peyton Manning, but he won't duplicate the statistics he produced in New England. Continuing our look at players being drafted higher than they should be, we turn our attention to the wide receiver and tight end positions. Although these players can be useful depending on when they are drafted, we will do our best to keep them off our fantasy football rosters this summer. For broader fantasy analysis of these positions, see our complete player rankings. Wide Receiver Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Average Draft Position 4.08, 15th WR over all) - Welker's high average of 112 receptions over the last six seasons will not carry over into Denver's more balanced pass scheme, which features the outside talents of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. A more realistic projection of 75 receptions, made by The Denver Post, makes sense, but paying for Welker in the fourth round instead of grabbing Decker a round or two later does not. Decker is expected to catch about 70 passes and will score more touchdowns as Peyton Manning's favorite red zone read (25 red zone targets led the N.F.L. in 2012). Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (A.D.P. 5.01, 18th WR over all) - Much of Wayne's fantasy success in 2012 came from the sheer volume of targets (196, second most in N.F.L.). With Bruce Arians no longer calling the shots, and the addition of receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey and an emerging T.Y. Hilton, that type of one-sided attention seems unlikely in 2013. Wayne also turns 35 in November, and a noticeable decline in his fantasy numbers down the stretch last year point to the inevitable decline of a great career. Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (A.D.P. 5.11, 22nd WR over all) - Wallace is transitioning to a new run-first team with a second-year quarterback who has a lot to prove, having ranked outside the top 20 in completion percentage, rating, passing yards per game and touchdown passes (12) in his rookie season. Early reports have him struggling to connect with Ryan Tannehill, and Wallace is now dealing with a groin injury. James Jones, Green Bay Packers (A.D.P. 6.12, 28th WR over all) - Predicting touchdown production from year to year is a tricky task. Jones proved last season that one can virtually come out of nowhere and score 14 of them. But it's pretty safe to assume Jones will not come anywhere close to that number this year with a healthy Jordy Nelson back on the field and the emerging Randall Cobb now receiving star attention in the passing game. Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys (A.D.P. 8.01, 33rd WR over all) - Austin's 2012 fantasy production took a major hit just as Dez Bryant's began to flourish, falling from nearly 10 fantasy points per game in the first half of the season to just 5.75 in the second. Coincidence? We think not. Expect more of the same in 2013. Danario Alexander, San Diego Chargers (A.D.P. 8.04, 35th WR over all) - The Chargers" offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt, is instilling a new quick-pass philosophy, featuring short underneath routes that will favor the skill sets of Vincent Brown and Antonio Gates over Alexander's. Plus, the fact that he has not played more than 10 games in a single season during his three-year career makes him one of the bigger injury risks in the game. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (A.D.P. 8.09, 37th WR over all) - There has been a sleeper tag hanging over Britt's head ever since he posted 42 receptions for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010, yet he has managed just 62 receptions, 878 yards and 7 touchdowns in 17 total games ever since. The injury-prone wideout reportedly looked good during O.T.A. workouts, but his quarterback Jake Locker is going to have to take a major step forward if Britt is truly going to break out in his fifth N.F.L. season, assuming he stays on the field for more than 13 games. Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks (A.D.P. 10.11, 47th WR over all) - This one seems like a no-brainer after his hip surgery, but there is a belief out there that Harvin could return to the field around Week 13, so in turn there will be plenty of owners drafting him with a late-round pick hoping to better their team for a fantasy playoff run. The problem is, even if Harvin does return by then, the Seahawks would almost certainly ease their most expensive player back into action by limiting his field time, making his late-season impact far less rewarding from a fantasy perspective. Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (A.D.P. 6.05, 5th TE over all) - In a thinning tight end field that has lost two big names this off-season, and perhaps one of the biggest for an extended period of time (Gronkowski), Gonzalez is one of the safest picks at his position. But the problem is, you may be paying more for him this summer because of it, considering he is unlikely to duplicate last season's top-three tight end production at age 37. Age catches up to everyone in sports, unless you're Mariano Rivera. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (A.D.P. N/A) - While Jay Gruden, the team's offensive coordinator, claims the buttery-fingered Gresham will remain the starting tight end despite the emergence of Tyler Eifert, the draft pick is inevitably going to cut into his production. The rookie tight end is drawing positive reviews in camp, and Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones figure to play a bigger part of the offense as well this season. Jake Ballard, New England Patriots (A.D.P. N/A) - Ballard's Tinman-like mobility and yearlong absence from the sport because of reconstructive surgeries on his knees make it hard to assume he can make an impact fantasywise if Gronkowski misses an extended amount of time. He certainly will not be operating out of the slot the way Aaron Hernandez did.