Labor's support dwindles With only a fortnight to go in the five-week election campaign, the latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll shows the Coalition extending its lead over Labor to 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis. It was 52-48 in early August, shortly after the election was called. While both leaders have lost some skin in the campaign, Mr Abbott retains the lead as the more trusted leader, with a rating of 43 per cent to Mr Rudd's career-low 36 per cent. Labor's primary vote has dropped to 35 per cent compared to the Coalition's 47 per cent, with the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the question of preferred prime minister, Mr Rudd's commanding 55-41 lead in July has been reduced to a statistically marginal 3 points on 48-45. The clear trend suggests voters are considering just the seventh switch of governing party since World War II. An overwhelming 70 per cent now believe the Coalition will win on September 7, compared to just 20 per cent who tip a come-from-behind result for Labor. Voters have answered that question correctly in the Fairfax-Nielsen poll ahead of every election since 1998. The statistically weighted poll of 2545 respondents taken between August 18 and 22 included 972 voters in Victoria and 980 in NSW. In Victoria, a Labor stronghold, ALP support has fallen 4 points since 2010, although that decline is off a very high base-vote of 55.3 per cent. It means Labor's hopes of retaining knife-edge seats such as Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe look like being dashed and others will now be vulnerable to Coalition attack. However, the ALP still leads narrowly in the state with 51 per cent after preferences, a marginal improvement on the poll a fortnight ago. Mr Rudd's advantage as preferred prime minister is also strongest in Victoria with 51 per cent to Mr Abbott's 39. In an encouragement for Adam Bandt, the Greens' sole lower house MP, support for the minor party is at 15 per cent in Victoria. In NSW, where Labor had hoped to keep losses to one or two seats in western Sydney, offset by expected gains in Queensland, Labor's primary vote is down to 34 per cent, a drop of some 5 points since the election was called. On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor's share of the vote in NSW has slumped to 44 per cent to the Coalition's 56, putting a swag of Labor seats in peril, including Greenway (0.9 per cent); Robertson (1.0), Lindsay (1.1), Banks (1.5), Reid (2.7), Parramatta (4.4) and Kingsford-Smith (5.2). The result shows Labor's prime-time election campaign advertisements warning of the threat of an Abbott government slashing essential services and cutting public spending "to the bone" have failed to bite. Mr Abbott's 53-47 lead represents a positive swing of 3 per cent since 2010. If carried uniformly through to polling day, that would account for the loss of 10 Labor-held seats. Particularly concerning to Labor is that Mr Rudd has lost ground to Mr Abbott in the head-to-head race. Their man still leads but the closest Mr Abbott got previously was within 10 points of Mr Rudd just before Labor replaced him with Julia Gillard. Among the few positives for Labor from the survey is the ALP is still more trusted when it comes to providing paid parental leave despite, or perhaps because of, Mr Abbott's generous scheme delivering full wage replacement for high-income mothers for six months after giving birth. "This is just continuing that trend," he said. It suggests that the movement's probably about 1 point a week since the calling of the election.