Chin up Blues ... Carlton could still play finals if it finishes ninth. HAWTHORN 64pts 138.4% R21: Collingwood, MCG R22: North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium R23: Sydney, ANZ Stadium Matt says: Top spot still its to lose. Wins against Collingwood and North Melbourne could give the Hawks enough of a buffer to be able to lose the Round 23 clash with Sydney and still win the minor premiership. With Fremantle and the Swans floating around, a top two finish is vital. GEELONG 60pts 133.1% R21: West Coast, Patersons Stadium R22: Sydney, Simonds Stadium R23: Brisbane Lions, Simonds Stadium Matt says: Far from secure in second right now _ could easily overtake Hawthorn in first, but, with Fremantle charging, could also slip out of the top two. West Coast at Patersons Stadium suddenly looks a tougher assignment than it did a week ago, but it is the clash with Sydney at Simonds Stadium that is looming as crucial. Lose that and you cannot see the Cats getting a home final in week one of September given the Dockers' easy draw. SYDNEY 58pts 138.2% R21: St Kilda, SCG R22: Geelong, Simonds Stadium R23: Hawthorn, ANZ Stadium Matt says: Loss to Collingwood on the weekend could be costly. Theoretically still in contention for top spot given it plays the two teams above it, Geelong and Hawthorn, on the run home. But a top four spot is now far from secure with Richmond and the Magpies charging. Assuming the Swans deal with St Kilda this weekend, one win from the games against the Cats and Hawks would secure the double chance, but losses against both could see John Longmire's men slump to fifth or even sixth. FREMANTLE 58pts 132% R21: Melbourne, MCG R22: Port Adelaide, Patersons Stadium R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium Matt says: Can't finish any lower than third if it wins all of its games. Ideal result for Fremantle would be for Sydney to defeat Geelong in Round 22 and then Hawthorn knock off the Swans the following week. That would, assuming the Dockers have won their remaining games, result in Ross Lyon's men finishing second on the ladder, earn a home qualifying final and potentially a golden ticket to the Grand Final. COLLINGWOOD 52pts 116.7% R21: Hawthorn, MCG R22: West Coast, MCG R23: North Melbourne, MCG Matt says: Suddenly Collingwood is the form team in the competition barring maybe Fremantle. Not out of the running for the top four courtesy of its win against Sydney, but that would at the very least require the Magpies to win their last three games _ a tall order considering Hawthorn has had their number for many a year now. Most likely scenario for the Pies is that they will win two of their last three, finish sixth and then play either Essendon or Port Adelaide at the MCG in an elimination final. Nathan Buckley would like his side's chances against either the Bombers or Power right now. RICHMOND 52pts 116.2% R21: Carlton, MCG R22: Greater Western Sydney, Skoda Stadium R23: Essendon, MCG Matt says: Richmond is on the prowl and not yet out of contention for the top four. The Tigers will start favourite in their last three games. If they manage to go three from three then they will finish fourth if Sydney lose to both Geelong and Hawthorn. It's not the most unlikely scenario, and no doubt Tigers fans would already be eyeing off the possibility of a qualifying final against their bunnies the Hawks, but there's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet. ESSENDON 52pts 113.1% R21: North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium R22: Carlton, MCG R23: Richmond, MCG Matt says: Regardless of the off-field stuff, Essendon's season is in free-fall. The Bombers have now lost three games in a row and each of North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond would fancy their chances of making that four, then five, then six on the trot. Would be no surprise if the Bombers fall to eighth on the ladder and in to a dangerous elimination final against either Richmond or Sydney. That will happen if they lose all three games and Port Adelaide wins two of its last three. PORT ADELAIDE 44pts 106.4% R21: Gold Coast, AAMI Stadium R22: Fremantle, Patersons Stadium R23: Carlton, AAMI Stadium Matt says: Finals spot all but secure, will be guaranteed with a win against Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium this week coupled with a Carlton loss to Richmond. Will be eyeing off Essendon and seventh spot _ a distinct possibility given the Bombers' drastic loss of form _ but it is unlikely to make for an easier elimination final. The Power will most probably meet either Collingwood or the Tigers at the MCG in week one of September. CARLTON 36pts 107.5% R21: Richmond, MCG R22: Essendon, MCG R23: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium Matt says: Realistically will only make the finals now if the AFL Commission strips Essendon of its competition points, thus eliminating it from the finals. To that end, a potentially disastrous loss to the Western Bulldogs was offset slightly by Adelaide's defeat of North Melbourne the following day. Whoever does finish ninth is likely to fall in to the finals - if that does prove to be the case - in every sense of the word. Every team from ninth to 14th has at least one tricky contest to negotiate in the next three weeks, meaning no side is likely to come in with a rich vein of form. The Blues are, at the moment, best placed to finish ninth and may only require one win to get in. Ironically that might come against Essendon next week. WEST COAST 36pts 106.3% R21: Geelong, Patersons Stadium R22: Collingwood, MCG R23: Adelaide, Patersons Stadium Matt says: Suddenly, out of nowhere, West Coast is a finals chance again. Like the Blues, that is only going to happen with a little help from the AFL Commission, but if it does finish ninth and make the finals you could argue that John Worsfold's men are the best credentialed team currently outside the top eight to do some damage. Showed some real form against Essendon, albeit an out of form Essendon. This week's game against Geelong is huge. It's a game that the Eagles would give themselves a real chance of winning and if they do then they might just be in the box seat to finish ninth and sneak in. NORTH MELBOURNE 32pts 120.6% R21: Essendon, Etihad Stadium R22: Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium R23: Collingwood, MCG Matt says: North Melbourne's chances of finishing ninth took a dive after its loss to Adelaide at the weekend. Will have to defeat an out-of-sorts Essendon this week to have any realistic chance of finishing ninth as last two games against ladder-leaders Hawthorn and in-form Collingwood are tough. ADELAIDE 32pts 101.1% R21: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium R22: Melbourne, AAMI Stadium R23: West Coast, Patersons Stadium Matt says: Put itself in a position to be able to finish ninth and win its way in to the finals if Essendon is eliminated by defeating North Melbourne. Tough game against the in-form Western Bulldogs this week, but if the Crows manage to win that then follow up with a victory against Melbourne they could potentially set-up a Round 23 playoff for ninth with West Coast at Patersons Stadium. BRISBANE LIONS 32pts 84.6% R21: Greater Western Sydney, Gabba R22: Western Bulldogs, Gabba R23: Geelong, Simonds Stadium Matt says: Not without a fluker's chance of finishing ninth. If games pan out as they should then Brisbane will likely finish level on wins with both Carlton and West Coast, but the Lions poor percentage would negate any chance of them leapfrogging the Blues or Eagles on the ladder. Therefore Michael Voss would need to orchestrate an unlikely win against Geelong in Geelong or have a string of results that sees the Eagles lose to Adelaide a week after the Crows are defeated by lowly Melbourne. GOLD COAST 28pts 89.3% R21: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium R22: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium R23: Greater Western Sydney, Metricon Stadium Matt says: Like the Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast remains mathematically in the hunt for ninth. Would need to defeat each of Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney and then hope Carlton and West Coast don't win again and also hope North Melbourne, Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions fail to win more than once. WESTERN BULLDOGS 24pts 81.3% R21: Adelaide, Etihad Stadium R22: Brisbane Lions, Gabba R23: Melbourne, Etihad Stadium Matt says: The Western Bulldogs are finishing the season with a bang and have an opportunity to take real momentum in to 2014 in the next three weeks. Can't shape the eight, but will have a say in the battle for ninth should that spot become important. The Dogs would back themselves to beat Adelaide at Etihad Stadium, while a win against the Brisbane Lions isn't a farfetched possibility either. ST KILDA 12pts 77.4% R21: Sydney, SCG R22: Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium R23: Fremantle, Etihad Stadium Matt says: Don't envy St Kilda having to come up against Sydney at the SCG back of a loss. The Saints would be praying for the end of the season to come. Home game with Gold Coast represents only realistic opportunity for a win. MELBOURNE 8pts 54.8% R21: Fremantle, MCG R22: Adelaide, AAMI Stadium R23: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium Matt says: Better against Gold Coast, but another reality check could come against a Fremantle side chasing percentage this week. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 4pts 53% R21: Brisbane Lions, Gabba R22: Richmond, Skoda Stadium R23: Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium Matt says: Will be nothing but a punching bag for two sides after percentage boosters, the Brisbane Lions and Richmond, in the next two weeks. Fremantle 17-1-4 4. Sydney 16-1-5 5. Collingwood 15-7 7. Port Adelaide 13-9 8. Carlton 10-12 10. West Coast 10-12 11. North Melbourne 9-13 13. Adelaide 9-13 14. Gold Coast 9-13 15. Western Bulldogs 8-14 16. WEEK 1 FINALS: Hawthorn v Sydney, MCG Geelong v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium Richmond v Essendon, MCG Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG WEEK 2 FINALS: Loser of Haw v Syd // winner of Rich v Ess Loser of Geel v Frem // winner of Coll v P.A