Peak demand on its way down The fall in demand in the National Electricity Market (NEM) - Source: www.aer.gov.au - and the rising forecast. Peak demand is more volatile than general demand, being strongly affected by weather, however as the graph shows the trend in the NEM since 2008-09 is definitively down. This does not appear to be a short-term trend but rather one that is firmly established. As to if peak demand is growing (%) NEM fall in peak winter demand since 2008: -9.7 NEM fall in peak summer demand since 2008-09: -9.2 NEM Fall in annual energy since 2008-09: -4.6 As can be seen from the above figures, the fall in peak demand is greater than the fall in annual energy demand. As for the major states of the NEM NSW fall in peak winter demand since the peak in winter 2008: -14.6 NSW fall in peak summer demand since the peak in summer 2010-11: -5.8 NSW fall in annual energy since 2007-08: -9.3 Vic fall in peak winter demand since the peak in winter 2007: -5.0 Vic fall in peak summer demand since the peak in summer 2008-09: -7.0 Qld fall in peak winter demand since the peak in winter 2008: -9.0 Qld fall in peak summer demand since the peak in summer 2009-10: -3.7 The source for these figures is www.aer.gov.au or http://www.aer.gov.au/australian-energy-industry/performance-of-the-energy-sector It should be noted that the largest market in the NEM, that is Sydney, recorded an all time record temperature this summer. This will distort the statistics and make the fall in peak demand seem less. AEMO provided a spreadsheet on request, showing the recent historical movements (in megawatts) in peak demand in the major states: The peak was in 2010-11: 14,863 Percentage drop since peak: 6.2% Note: NSW had a huge heat wave in 2012-13 Queensland Peak was in 2009-10: 9063 Percentage drop since peak: 3.8% Victoria Victorian peak was in 2008-09: 10,603 Percentage drop since peak: 7.65% The difference between the AER and the AEMO numbers may be that they are using different POE's (Probability of Exceedence) The difference in figures is not significant. AEMO points out that the AER figures above do not show matching timeframes. This graphic, provided by ESAA, shows residential and commercial consumption per capita has fallen by more than 7 per cent, from over 7000Mw in 2005-06 to under 6500Mw in 2013. Therefore, although both ESAA and AEMO responded to questions that peak demand was continuing to rise, their own figures on consumption show falling demand and rising forecasts.