Rudd"s "terminated" tax will actually soar Kevin Rudd, July 16: Today we've taken the decision to terminate the carbon tax. Today's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook: PEFO adds: ...a simple rule of thumb for a $1 change in the carbon price in any given year would be a change in the underlying cash balance of around $160 million in 2014-15 or around $220 million in either 2015-16 or 2016-17. Do the maths. Rudd claims he's cutting the carbon price to $6. His own Budget update - and today's PEFO - confirm his Budget actually relies on the carbon price rising to nearly $19 three years from now (and $38 in six years). If the carbon price, set by Europe's market, does stay at $6 by 2016, the last year of a re-elected Rudd Government, rather than rise to $19, PEFO estimates the revenue shortfall to be $2.86 billion. That would wipe out two thirds of the expected $4.2 billion surplus that year - Labor's first.