By-elections in the federal seat of Griffith and the state seat of Redcliffe will be an indicator of Government performance Griffith LNP candidate Bill Glasson visits Woolloongabba barber Paul DeLuca. AS far as electorates go, they could not be more different. But when voters from the state seat of Redcliffe and the federal seat of Griffith go to the polls next month they will do more than just elect new local members, they will also be an opinion poll on the performance of the Newman and Abbott Governments. "The majority of by-elections are referendums on the immediate performance of the incumbents," political scientist Dr Paul Williams says. By-elections are a chance to vent electoral frustrations without fear of changing the government. The 60km sq Griffith electorate spans parts of Brisbane's inner city, inner east and inner south and, up until September, could boast that it had a Prime Minister for a local member. It is home to more than 90,000 voters and has been a safe Labor seat for since 1998, having been held by the Liberal Party just four times since 1934. It will go back to the polls on February 8 to find a replacement for former PM Kevin Rudd who resigned in November. The state electorate of Redcliffe, on the other hand, with its 32,200 voters is yet to find out when it will get to have its say on a new local member. It has changed hands between the major parties on and off since 1989 and can boast picturesque bayside vistas and the Bee Gees Way - a tribute to the famous trio who once called the area home. The Redcliffe electorate will also forever be known for its disgraced former MP and resident Scott Driscoll who quit in November last year less than 24 hours before his parliamentary colleagues were due to expel him over more than 40 charges of contempt of parliament. He did not escape punishment, however, with MPs voting to fine him $90,000. Such is his impact on the electorate, the woman attempting to retain the seat for the LNP, nurse Kerri-Anne Dooley, refers to it as the "Driscoll factor." Redcliffe LNP candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley with local newsagent Pat Connolly. "There definitely has been some damage," Dooley says of the former MP. Normally a party which can boast a 10 per cent margin would expect to keep the seat with ease but in this electoral bout the former Family First candidate turned LNP candidate admits she faces an uphill battle. I'm expecting it to be tough. I am not naive to that," Dooley says of her decision to seek preselection for the LNP. In a bid to counter the so-called Driscoll factor the party sent a letter from Premier Campbell Newman to the electorate - which landed in some letter boxes on New Year's Eve - apologising for the debacle. Dooley says while there had been "a few" that had shut the door, she believes - or at least hopes - the apology has helped to heal those wounds. I have been doorknocking since Saturday and four or five people out of almost 200 people have brought it up. I truly believe people have moved on. Dooley admits she believes voters will use the by-election as an opportunity to have a say on how they think the LNP has performed so far but says "bring it on." If union polling is to believed, Dooley's opponent, former Federal Member for Petrie Yvette D'Ath, is all but set to become the eighth member of the State Opposition. Redcliffe Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath. But D'Ath, fresh from her narrow defeat at the September Federal Election, is also quick to point out she's not taking anything for granted and is not banking on anti-Driscoll sentiment to get her over the line. People are disgusted in what happened out here and the fact that he had Campbell Newman's support and absolute faith for so long. But it is one factor. No one can predict what's going to come out of this. We don't know how many candidates are going to be on the ballot paper. We don't know if many minor parties are going to be on that ballot paper. I'm not focused on what the outcome might be or trying to second guess it. D'Ath too agrees the Redcliffe poll will serve as an opinion poll on the LNP's performance two-thirds of the way through their first term. I think this is very much a by-election on the actions of this government over the last two years. At least three Independents are expected to formally nominate as candidates in the by-election along with Greens candidate John Marshall who ran against D'Ath in September. Director of campaign research for Working for Queenslanders, Scott Steel says he too believes the Redcliffe by-election will be a referendum on the Newman Government's performance. "We know that at the moment the polling suggests Redcliffe is somewhere between 53 to 57 per cent two-party preferred to Labor," he says. When it comes to by-elections people also vote for different reasons than they ordinarily would at general elections. Sometimes they get the angry stick out. And while Driscoll will play a factor, Steel says the polling and focus group work suggests the electorate's opinion on policy matters will play a major role on polling day. Redcliffe is that sort of place, an outer suburb, working class, with large amounts of families with dependent children where they believe that government should provide a certain amount of services to them and they are very sceptical of private sector providing government services. AS THE players battle it out on the streets of Redcliffe while awaiting news of the by-election date, about 35km away, lawyer Terri Butler and ophthalmologist Bill Glasson are attempting to make the most of the 28 days they have left until polling day. Glasson has again armed himself with more than 700 volunteers - or Glasson Gladiators as they like to be known - as he marches towards the February 8 poll hoping to slice through the ALP's 3 per cent margin. He shaved about 5.45 per cent off it at the September federal election beating then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on first preference votes 36,481 to 34,878. It was second preferences, mainly from the Greens, that saved Rudd from a double humiliation on election night. Greens candidate Geoff Ebbs says he thinks the Greens will play an even bigger role this time around. I think they (the voters) are angry at what the governments at a State and Federal level are doing. A lot of that anger is also directed at the ALP as well because neither party is really addressing the major issues," he says. The ALP depends on the Greens preferences in Griffith as it does in any other seat. I'm sure we'll have a bigger impact than last time. the seat is closer and people are very angry at those parties. Bill Glasson might seem a shoo-in after his near-giant killing efforts in September but history is against him with a 1920 federal by-election in Western Australia cited as the last time a government managed to steal a seat from the opposition in such a poll. Even the bookies agree, placing rival Terri Butler at the shortest odds to win, $1.20 to $3.85. "I'm passionate about winning this time," Glasson says of his decision to give it another go. The gladiators were still keen. He says it is too soon to gauge the true feeling of the electorate with many still away on holidays and he's unsure if voters will see the by-election as an opportunity to send a message to the Abbott Government. I think it's too early. If it was six months or 12 months down the line you could argue people would send a signal to the incumbent government The Abbott Government has only been there for three months. It's too early to be sending that sort of message. This is not a general election. This is a by-election. What you need to be sending to Canberra is a messenger not a message. Griffth Labor candidate Terri Butler. Butler, however, says she believes Griffith voters will use their vote to send a message to not just Prime Minister Tony Abbott but also Premier Campbell Newman. "We've got wall-to-wall LNP governments here, local government. and I don't think people want to give a tick of approval to the LNP," she says. This is the first opportunity people get in meaningful way to tell Tony Abbot and Campbell Newman what they think and I think they will do that via the ballot box. The industrial lawyer is campaigning heavily on issues from the Abbott Government's flip-flopping on Gonski school funding and the mooted changes to Medicare, to the Newman Government's mass public sector redundancies and controversial bikie laws. Her supporters say they feel the mood has changed since September when Rudd's beloved electorate almost turned against him. But Butler cautiously avoids declaring whether or not she is confident of retaining the seat for the ALP stating: "I know it's going to be tight. I'm not under any illusions about the challenge that I face. But all the feedback I'm getting is that people aren't happy with Tony Abbott. That's more important to me. Not the history. Not the odds. Email: sarah.vogler@news.com.au