Markets Live: Nickel miners rally 2:53pm: On a big day for nickel, Mirabela Nickel chairman Geoff Handley and fellow directors Colin Steyn and Peter Nicholson have resigned from the company's board. Non-executive director of Kasbah Resources and Minemakers, Ian McCubbing, has been appointed non-executive chairman and Nick Sheard remains a non-executive director and will take on the role of Audit Committee chairman. Ian Purdy remains managing director of the company. Mirabela's shares remain suspended at 1¢ a share following the announcement it had lost key contracts. Its shares fell 97 per cent since the start of 2013. 2:48pm: Before you get too carried away with sharemarket predictions for the year ahead, you should know that equity strategists were wildly wrong about 2013. Towards the end of 2012, the average prediction from these analysts had the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index slumping 2.5 per cent in 2013. Instead, investors were rewarded with a blockbuster 15 per cent capital gain (20 per cent including dividends).It's likely the strategists underestimated the continuing and massive effect of quantitative easing across the world's largest economies. Indeed, it wasn't earnings growth that pushed the ASX higher, it's just that in the absence of other investment alternatives, investors showed themselves prepared to pay more for the same corporate profit pool. The estimated forward P/E for the S&P/ASX 200 expanded by 14 per cent in 2013 to 14.8, after jumping by 23 per cent in 2012. Which brings us to the year ahead. A survey of five strategists by The Australian Financial Review late last year shows the consensus is for a 10 per cent gain for the index this year. Just don't bet your house on it. Read more. Analysts and their expectations (with apologies for the size of this graphic). 2:37pm: Is now the time to get back into gold stocks? Not quite, but the moment is approaching fast, write analysts at CIMB. The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index is around historic lows when compared to the gold price in Aussie dollars, they note, and that's despite a 16 per cent surge in the index over the past month. After a horror year for the precious metal - finishing 2013 down 28 per cent to $US1205/ounce - investors may be starting to believe that the worst is behind gold producers. Shares in the largest locally listed gold miner, Newcrest Mining, have put on 19.5 per cent in a month, while Perseus Mining stock is up 38 per cent. Gold topped $US1250 this afternoon, it's highest in a month. The CIMB analysts have positive ratings on both Newcrest and Perseus, and also highlight Evolution Mining, Regis Resources, Northern Star, and OceanaGold as potential investments for ready to take the plunge back into the decimated sector. Most are "multi-mine producers with strong management, robust balance sheets" and a cost structure "that can see them through the current gold price environment," they write. The exception is Perseus, which is a single-mine producer, but which has sufficient leverage to the gold price to make it a valid pick on a risk-reward basis. Investors, say the analysts, "are happy to miss the first 20 to 30 per cent of a rebound in the sector." Write the analysts: "We are not there yet, but it is certainly time to be deciding which stocks you want to be ready to pull the trigger on - because the way the market is moving it could be in coming weeks." 2:34pm: Only slightly related: Leo Di Caprio has just won the Best Actor Golden Globe for his role as The Wolf of Wall Street. For more on the Globes, here's our live blog. Leonardo Di Caprio in The Wolf of Wall Street. 2:31pm: Looks like the local market is taking the biggest hit in the region today: Hong Kong: -0.05% Shanghai: +0.05% Taiwan: +0.5% Korea: +0.6% Singapore: -0.2% New Zealand: +0.6% The slower growth in US payrolls is boosting confidence as concerns ease the US Federal Reserve could accelerate its cuts to stimulus. """Equities markets liked the payrolls report because it means the pace of tapering could possibly be a bit slower than expected,"" says Keith Poore, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Wellington. ""Tapering will continue if economic growth pans out as we are expecting, which is for a gradual improvement. The economy is going to improve and ultimately that is going to be good for growth assets like equities."" 1:59pm: At today's conference call, Telstra chief executive David Thodey would not be drawn into speculation as to what the telco plans to do with its growing war chest of funds, however he did concede Telstra's shareholders are keen for some return on equity. "We must continue to look at where we invest to drive returns for shareholders but we're also very conscious our shareholders, at various times, would appreciate a return in terms of dividends," said Thodey. Chief financial officer Andy Penn said Telstra was committed to raising its dividend, but would not state when. We're committed over the long-term to look for ways to increase the dividend. That's our aspiration but to do so, we're got to increased underlying earnings are EPS and that's clearly what management is focused on. CIMB analyst Ian Martin says the company needs to respond to the fact that the dividend has not increased since Thodey took the reins in 2009, despite the strengthening operation performance: They know the shareholders want to see an increase in dividends, so you're going to see an increase in underlying dividend over the next couple of years and you're going to see some capital returns in some form, probably a special dividend. 1:38pm: The Australian dollar has touched a one-month highs against a still-defensive greenback after surprisingly soft US jobs data revived speculation the Federal Reserve could keep policy loose for longer. The closely-watched report on Friday showed US employers hired the fewest workers in nearly three years in December, wrongfooting many in the market who had positioned for a strong outcome. The Aussie, which posted its biggest one-day rally in nearly four months on Friday, is up 0.4 per cent at 90.29 US cents, having earlier peaked at 90.33, a level last seen on December 12. An expected 1.1 per cent rise in Australia's housing finance and a small dip in job advertisements failed to spur a market still taking stock of Friday's big moves. "Both were in line with recent trends...though the weakness in demand for labour will continue to raise questions over how patient we should be for the full effects (of past interest rate cuts) to be felt," says Michael Turner, strategist at RBC in Sydney. The dollar over the past month. 1:32pm: The number of people listening to commercial radio reached a record 9.7 million last year, according to industry body Commercial Radio Australia, as the industry prepares for a shake-up of key presenters in 2014. 1:23pm: One for the global investors: in his latest quarterly report, superstar billionaire fund manager Kerr Neilson from Platinum Asset Management has revealed his International Fund had short positions on the US market, an exposure to the Japanese equities index, and a keenness for pharmaceutical companies. Neilson's fund has returned 13 per cent a year, compound, since launching in the early 1990s. In the latest report for the December quarter, Neilson reveals he sold his entire stake in Adidas, halved the position in Micron Technology, sold out of Deutsche Borse and continued to reduce Amadeus, Henkel and Bank of America. His International Fund started some short positions (puts) on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 towards the end of the year, as their technical indicators suggested that those "markets were overextended." Neilson notes he has a long position in the Japanese Topix Index, which he believes is in a "very strong bull phase." The fund bought more shares in "drug stocks" Sanofi and Navortis and initiated new positions in AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo. Neilson says the latter two are "the cheapest drug companies around and are set to change." He also details his interest in a "fallen" tech company, Japan's Ibiden, which makes parts for computer chip manufacturers. The fund's report in full can be found here. In other news, Platinum's deputy chief investment officer, Jacob Mitchell, talked to the AFR about Italian banks and one Hong Kong-listed Chinese insurer. 1:17pm: The ASX has just hit the day's lows, on track to post a sixth session of losses out of the past seven. Falls in the index are being led by the big banks, while the miners are holding up after slumping last week: Rio: +0.1% Westpac: -0.6% 1:11pm: Global nickel prices (and Australian nickel miners) are rallying after a ban on unprocessed mineral exports by top supplier Indonesia came into effect, a policy that could trigger a recovery in long-depressed nickel prices. Indonesia introduced the controversial ban on Sunday on a range of raw mineral ores in order to force home companies to build processing plants on Indonesian soil, but policy confusion remains. Last minutes changes approved by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - aimed at minimising the short-term economic impact - appear to give reprieve to exports of copper by US mining giants Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold and Newmont Mining Corp. Shortly before the ban took effect, Freeport halted copper exports and said it would not resume them until there was clarity on which minerals can be shipped. Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of nickel ore, refined tin and thermal coal and home to the fifth largest copper mine and top gold mine. Indonesian authorities offered no such relief to the nickel and bauxite industries. London Metal Exchange nickel rose 4 per cent on Friday and added a further 2 per cent in early Asian trading today, helping push shares in Australian producer Western Areas up more than 10 per cent. Indonesia accounts for about 15 per cent of global nickel supplies. It is a major supplier to China where its high grade laterite nickel, found only in tropical regions, is used to produce nickel pig iron, a cheaper alternative for making stainless steel than high-purity nickel. China requires around 850,000 tonnes a year of nickel - nearly half global consumption - with around 450,000 tonnes of that coming from nickel pig iron. China rarely draws down on nickel stocks held by the London Metal Exchange, but some analysts think this could change if its supply of Indonesian nickel pig iron is cut off, underpinning prices. 11:59am: In the other set of economic data out today, the number of home loans approved in November rose 1.1 per cent, same as the previous month and meeting economist expectations. Growth in investor lending slowed sharply to 1.5 per cent, from 6.8 per cent in October. The rise in home loans means the Reserve Bank won't cut the cash rate again during this cycle, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe says: We think they're done because those interest rate sensitive parts like housing, as we've seen today, are moving. 11:50am: Freight rail operator Asciano has entered into a 12-year haulage agreement with Whitehaven Coal that it says will reduce costs. Per tonnage haulage costs are lower under the new agreement through the use of fewer train services for any given volume, Asciano said. Asciano shares are up 0.1 per cent at $5.625, while Whitehaven has dropped 2.7 per cent to $1.805. 11:48am: Economists can't agree on the future path of the cash rate this year, reports NAB, citing a Bloomberg survey of 30 institutions in which almost a quarter predict the RBA will hike rates twice by the end of 2014. With the local economy finely balanced between a lagging cyclical recovery and a drop-off in mining export activity and income, it's no surprise there's a wide divergence of views. The chart below shows the distribution of the cash rate forecasts, with the highest number of respondents plumping for rates to finish the year where they started, at 2.5 per cent. NAB expects one more rate cut in mid-2014, coinciding with an unemployment rate pushing up to 6 per cent and amid "tame" inflation. The consensus view is that unemployment will remain steady at 5.8 per cent when the ABS released new jobs figures for December on Thursday. Also out on Thursday are new stats on building and construction activity. 11:31am: Job ads have continued to decline for another month but have showed further signs of stabilisation across some states, a private monthly survey has found. ANZ's job ads survey fell 0.7 per cent in December to take the annual decline to 9 per cent. Job ads fell 0.8 per cent in November. "Overall, labour demand appears to be stabilising or even improving modestly," says ANZ's head of Australian economics Justin Fabo. A number of different measures of job ads [and] vacancies have been broadly flat since mid-2013. This is consistent with the unemployment rate remaining relatively stable at around 5.75 per cent in the near term, a level it has been at since mid-2013. The survey showed that labour demand is improving in NSW, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. At the same time, the decline in job ads in Victoria was moderating. 11:27am: Telstra's sale of a 70 per cent stake in Sensis for just $454 million is "disappointing" from a price perspective but is "probably a good thing" for Telstra as a whole, says IG market strategist Evan Lucas: This is Telstra getting out as soon as they can because it believes the business in the longer term may not be as viable as some people suggest. The sale price implies the business could be in deeper trouble than people had thought, Reuters quotes another telecommunications analyst who declined to be named according to company policy. "I think a lot of people in the market thought maybe it's around $1 billion," he said. Sensis publishes print and online directories including the White Pages and the Yellow Pages. The unit generated earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $571 million for the year ending June 2013, down 22 per cent from the previous year. Chief financial officer Andrew Penn told investors in an August briefing that the transitioning of the Sensis business to a digital model remained "challenging." 11:21am: As we mentioned earlier, there's two economic data releases out today - housing finance and ANZ job ads. ANZ's monthly jobs survey - a forward-looking indicator - found that ads had fallen by 0.8 per cent in November, after a 0.1 per cent dip in October. Despite the softer headline figures, the survey suggested that there were some signs of stabilisation in the data for states such as NSW, Victoria and Western Australia. At the same time, the unemployment data over the next few months is expected to remain fairly soft as the economy transitions away from resources-driven growth, economists say. The housing finance figures have shown that first-home buyers (see chart below) continue to be priced out of the residential property market. In Victoria, first home buyers made up 11.7 per cent of new housing loan commitments in October, the lowest proportion since records began in 1991. In NSW, first home buyer activity improved slightly in NSW in October, lifting to 7.4 per cent from a record low of 6.8 per cent in September. 11:04am: The big question is whether the weak US payrolls data will slow the pace of Fed tapering or better yet, encourage policymakers to leave asset purchases unchanged this month, BK Asset Management's Kathy Lien says: Based on the sell-off in the dollar, drop in US yields and recovery in stocks, investors believe that the central bank will be less aggressive with winding down QE in the first half the year. The Federal Reserve also needs to think hard about their unemployment rate threshold because it could be reached by Janet Yellen's first meeting as Fed Chair in March and unfortunately the unemployment rate is not falling because the labor market is improving. Even if Friday's data was distorted by weather, weak payrolls growth highlights the ongoing challenges of high unemployment in the US economy. According to Thursday's FOMC minutes, the Federal Reserve has not committed to any predetermined course for reducing asset purchases and the weak payrolls number is a good reason for the central bank to take a break from tapering this month and wait for the next NFP report which will be released in February before cutting bond buys again. When the central bank meets this month, they will go out of their way to emphasise that rates will not be increased until the jobless rate drops well below 6.5% and to drum this point in harder, they could even lower the target to 6% but that may be a decision relegated to Yellen after she takes office. Janet Yellen. 10:45am: The Australian dollar briefly traded above 90 US cents after disappointing data from a key US jobs report for December. The local currency, which was trading at as low as 88.89 US cents before the data was released, jumped to just under 90 US cents. It then rose to 90.06 US cents about 6.20am today. It's currently fetching 89.95 US cents. There's nothing like a shock US payrolls to get the Aussie fired up, says Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow: We are very close to one-month highs and the Aussie seems to be in a good position to build on its gains. We think that particularly with the speculators having been rather aggressively short Aussie, they probably should start reducing their positions. The news flow for the Aussie is not too bad at all, while the US economy is faltering a little bit. Key local economic data out today include ANZ job advertisements for December and housing finance figures for November. Both will be released at 11.30am. The Australian dollar over the past three trading days. 10:34am: As expected, Indonesia's recently enforced ban on raw ore exports has helped along the share prices of a range of locally listed stocks this morning, including nickel miners Western Areas (up 8.9 per cent), Mincor (4.4 per cent), and Sirius (2.4 per cent), and aluminium producer Alumina, which is up 3.8 per cent in early trading. Indonesia on Sunday enforced a long-awaited mineral export law that effectively bans unprocessed ores from leaving Indonesian shores. The policy is designed to force companies to build processing plants and other downstream infrastructure on Indonesian soil, and pundits expect it to affect the trade of bauxite and nickel in particular, and possibly tin. 10:31am: Telstra has hardly reacted to the Sensis sale, slipping 0.1 per cent to $5.25. Falls in the banks and Wesfarmers are being offset by gains in the major miners. Here are the biggest winners and losers in the ASX200: 10:08am: Some more on iron ore miners: Goldman Sachs is forecasting a correction in the raw material in the first quarter of 2014. Last week, iron ore had its worst week since last May, falling 3.2 per cent. The push lower will be driven by increased supply of iron ore, compared with last year. While bigger miners, Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue will still feel a bit of a pinch, smaller miners, who lack their own rail and infrastructure assets, will likely suffer the most. Iron ore miners to watch today include, Atlas Iron, Aquila Resources, Gindabie Metals, among others. 10:03am: Can Fortescue do it again this year? The self-titled "third force" in iron ore mining proved the doubters wrong and capitalised on the continuing strength in the price for the metal in 2013 to return 28 per cent to shareholders for the year. The start to 2014 has been more subdued: the stock has dropped 10 per cent as the iron ore price pulled back - last week it fell every day to finish $US5 lower at $US130/tonne, dragging miners down with it. Today's AFR points out there are "lingering concerns" about FMG's "operational culture and the long-term outlook for iron ore." One big worry is the miner's high gearing, with one analyst estimating it will take four years to reduce debt ratios to levels similar to those of the majors. Still, despite worries that a bigger than expected slowdown in China could sink the iron ore price, some of the smart money is exposed to the metal. Bell Potter's Charlie Aitken likes Fortescue, as does Credit Suisse strategist Hasan Tevfik. Local investment guru David Paradice owns 6.5 per cent in junior miner Atlas Iron. It's not for the faint-hearted, though: Atlas has fallen from $1.16 a share to 97c in less than a week. Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest has seen the iron ore miner's shares fall 10% this year. 10:00am: Back to the weak US jobs numbers: economists largely blamed the appalling weather in Northern America for a poor showing in the all-important US job figures on Friday night, which revealed a mere 74,000 new jobs (net) were created in December, below the media "street" expectation of 197,000. Societe Generale point out that the household survey revealed 273,000 people were unable to make it to work because of the weather, more than double a 30-year December average of 130,000. So if it was a "rogue number," why the big jump in the Aussie dollar to above 90 US cents? Likening the jobs numbers to "sticker shock," NAB's economics team says what the payrolls data has done is "squash concerns that the Fed could accelerate the pace of QE tapering beyond $US10 billon per meeting." Meanwhile, ANZ's economics team write that their "baseline remains that a lift in the underlying economy will produce solid employment gains in 2014 but the January snowstorm... may continue to affect the labour market data near-term." 9:57am: Many readers asked us last year to add regular polls on expectations for the market. These polls are obviously not scientific but provide an interesting glimpse into what our readers expectations are. We are thinking about starting the blog at 9am every day (what do you think?), at which point we might add a poll for the day's expectations, but today's is on your predictions for the whole week. Poll: It's not been a great start of the year, with the ASX200 ending last week lower than it started the year. What are your expectations for this week? The ASX will end the week flat, around 5310 points. The stock market will post a cautious rise. The market will rallly above 5400 points. The market will slip but not more than 1%. Last week was the start of a major sell-off, taking the ASX200 below 5200 this week. Total votes: 273. 9:49am: The other major corporate news out this morning is the latest installment in the dairy takeover battle of the (old and new) year: Saputo has gained its strongest momentum yet in the fight for Warrnambool Cheese and Butter, with acceptances to its offer surging past 26 per cent. The Canadian dairy dynamo issued WCB shareholders an ultimatum on Friday, saying they only had 12 more days to accept its unconditional offer of $9 cash a share or miss out. Saputo said over the weekend its acceptances had jumped from 21.4 per cent to 26.4 per cent. The Montreal-based company extended its offer to on Friday morning, nine hours before its was set to close. Chief executive and vice chairman Lino Saputo Jr said there would be no more extensions. "If shareholders want to be paid their cash, and paid quickly, they must accept our offer and make sure we receive their acceptance before the offer expires,"" he said. Saputo is jousting for control of Warrnambool Cheese and Butter with Australia's biggest dairy company, Murray Goulburn, which has offered $9.50 cash a share, or $533 million. 9:37am: In local news, Telstra has confirmed it is selling a majority stake of its directories business Sensis for $454 million to US private equity firm Platinum Equity. The price is much lower than media speculated over the weekend, with a price tag of up to $3 billion being reported. In an announcement to the ASX this morning, Telstra said it will sell a 70 per cent stake in Sensis, and retain the remaining 30 per cent. Telstra said Sensis was now valued at $649 million. Stay tuned for more details on this story, plus analyst comments. 9:29am: On Wall Street on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended modestly higher, led by gains in defensive names after a weaker-than-expected payrolls report raised new questions about both the strength of the economy and the aggressiveness of Federal Reserve stimulus. 9:26am: Australian stocks are set for a cautious start following a volatile session on Wall Street sparked by surprisingly weak US jobs numbers. The most important numbers from Friday night at a glance: Brent oil rose to $US107.25 per barrel Spot gold gained $US1248.45 an ounce Iron ore fell to $US130.70 per tonne 9:18am: Good morning everyone, and welcome back to the Markets Live blog. We hope you had a relaxing and rejuvenating time off. Your blog editors today are Jens Meyer and Patrick Commins. As usual, please remember this blog is not intended as investment advice. BusinessDay with agencies