Labour's poll lead evaporates as parties gear up for election Labour now has its smallest lead since December 2011, when the two parties were neck and neck on 38 per cent, according to ComRes. There was better news for Ed Balls, the shadow Chancellor, with YouGov finding that 61 per cent of voters like his 50p tax plan while just 26 per cent do not. The outlook remains bleak for the Liberal Democrats with both YouGov and ComRes putting them well behind the United Kingdom Independence Party. In the YouGov poll, Ukip is set to take 13 per cent of the vote, against the Liberal Democrats' 9 per cent. For ComRes, Ukip has 14 per cent against the LibDems' 9 per cent. LibDem activists remain confident that the party can only lost around five or six seats. However with eight LibDem MPs retiring from Parliament - and to losing the advantage of incumbency - this could be overly optimistic. Despite the lead, the odds are still heavily stacked against Ukip winning one seat at next year's election because the odds are stacked against the party because of the vagaries of the first past the post system. A study after Ukip's strong showing in last year's local elections found that Ukip's vote share had to hit 24 per cent in the general election for the party to get its first MP. The research from respected forecasters Electoral Calculus said: "We see that Ukip only gets its first few MPs at 24 per cent. Even when it is the most popular single party, it can still win fewer seats than Labour. It continued: "The short answer is that it is still very difficult for Ukip to win Westminster seats..." Ukip would win enough MPs to form a Government if it won around 34 per cent of the vote, the researchers said. Part of the problem was the absence of any strong pockets of local support, and a range of strong candidates to beat the national trend.