Exploiting growth in the China tourist dollar Take a flight from Bangkok to the Sri Lankan capital Colombo, and you may notice something unexpected at meal time - the menus are printed in Mandarin. It is likely to become a more common sight, as millions of Chinese tourists flock to ever farther corners of the globe. Airline and hotel operators are not the only ones taking note - investors are looking to tap China's money belt too. Appetite was clear in November last year, when online travel agent Qunar completed its initial public offering on Nasdaq, and nearly doubled on its first day of trade. Qunar's bigger rival, Ctrip, had a month earlier sold an $800m convertible bond to eager investors. The deal was upsized from $500m on strong demand, buoyed by the stellar performance of the company's stock. It has more than doubled since the start of 2012. The arrival of Chinese tourists on foreign shores is not a new phenomenon, but it does appear to be gathering pace. Estimates suggest about 100m mainlanders packed their suitcases for overseas jaunts in 2013, up from fewer than 60m in 2010. Millions will be doing so again later this week as the country marks the beginning of the year of the horse. According to CLSA analyst Aaron Fischer, the trend is about to change gear. He describes the moment where per capita gross domestic product surpasses $8,000 as the "tipping point" after which tourism growth accelerates, based on previous experience in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. China currently has a GDP per head of about $7,000, although it is well above that in some parts of the country. Mr Fischer estimates that total outbound tourist numbers will reach 200m by the end of the decade, while travel spending will triple. "We've been talking about Chinese tourists for years," says Mr Fischer. People think this story is halfway done or two-thirds of the way done. We don't think so; we think we're at the beginning part of the story. If correct, that should mean more good news for companies with a heavy exposure to the tourist renminbi. Gaming stocks have been among the biggest beneficiaries. Galaxy Entertainment - which through its single Macau casino now takes more bets per year than the whole of the Las Vegas strip - more than doubled in 2013, bringing owner Lui Che-woo to the cusp of overtaking Li Ka-shing as Asia's richest man. Its rivals have also rallied strongly. More obvious regional travel plays have done well too. Sydney Airport's stock has risen three times more than the benchmark Australian index, while Bangkok-listed Airports of Thailand is up two-thirds in the past 12 months, although it has been hit by recent unrest. Catherine Yeung, investment director at Fidelity, says that a number of the company's fund managers have looked at a wide range of stocks to play the theme, such as Korean cosmetics and duty-free retailers, casinos in the Philippines and even Australian education stocks. Perhaps China's largest export in years to come is going to be the Chinese tourist. We're talking about a huge number of people that are going to be travelling," she says. But while the overarching story of China's march overseas is undoubtedly compelling, there are plenty of doubts about how easy it is to profit from it. Joohee An, who runs an Asia consumer fund at Mirae Asset, says that a number of travel-related companies are in sectors with low entry barriers, raising questions about their long-term profitability. She favours casino and duty-free retail stocks. Getting direct exposure is also a problem. For example, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific - one of Mr Fischer's picks - gets only 10 per cent of its business from Chinese tourists. China's domestic politics also poses risks. Luxury goods stocks - earmarked as potential winners - have been hit hard by China's crackdown on ostentatious living and official corruption, and by the fickle nature of the luxury consumer. Prada shares have fallen 15 per cent in the past six months. The bigger worry is simply that the best is already over. SJM Holdings, owned by casino magnate Stanley Ho, has risen more than 1,300 per cent in the past five years, while Galaxy is up 5,600 per cent. Macau Legend, which only listed in September, has tripled in value. Gaming sector valuations run from 25 times price to earnings up to more than 70 times. But for believers, this is no great concern. "We can't just compare the p/e [ratios]," says Ms An. It's all about the potential. I think the tourism sector is one of the best sectors for [positive] surprises.