Reasons to be cheerful as we welcome 2014 Twelve months ago, America was deep in a malaise of its own making, wrestling with a stagnant economy, spiralling debt and gridlocked politics. Today, the innovative dynamism that has always been the superpower's most salient characteristic is showing through once more: nine of the world's 10 biggest companies are American again (in 2009, the figure was only three) and economic recovery is finally cleaning up the fiscal mess. Last year, this newspaper identified public debt of 103 per cent of gross domestic product as the single greatest threat to America's pre-eminence. At the start of 2014, the tide has turned and the burden has fallen to 99 per cent - not a huge reduction, but not bad either given that hundreds of billions of dollars are involved. On the whole, that will be good news for anyone who believes that American leadership helps to guarantee a safer world. We will doubtless be regaled with comparisons with 1914, casting China as Wilhelmine Germany and America as Asquith's Britain. The maritime disputes of the China Sea will be superimposed on the Balkans of a century ago, supposedly providing the tinderbox for global conflagration. But these parallels are unconvincing. A century ago, Germany had already surpassed Britain's economic might; China, by contrast, is a generation away from doing the same to America. Germany's brand of diplomacy succeeded only in making enemies of most of Europe: the Kaiser's perverse achievement was to unite the Great Powers against him. China is unlikely to repeat Germany's singular irrationality. Yes, Beijing is locked in dispute over sundry island chains. True enough, the Senkakus (Japan's name), or the Diaoyus (China's parlance), fall under Washington's security treaty with Tokyo, meaning that any Chinese bid for them would risk war with both Japan and America. No doubt Mr Xi is capable of mistakes, but he would have to be monumentally foolish to choose such a course. If the global balance remains intact and China avoids coming to blows with its neighbours, those facts alone will create the space for hundreds of millions of people to improve their lives. But there will, as ever, be dangerous exceptions to a benign trend. In the Middle East, Syria's civil war will enter its fourth year in March. The moment when Western intervention might have toppled Bashar al-Assad's bloodstained regime without unleashing anarchy has passed. Now there is little we can do, save provide aid and await the day when all parties come to their senses. Meanwhile, thousands of Syrian refugees are arriving in southern Europe, showing how conflict remains a key cause of immigration into all rich countries, including our own. Elsewhere, Afghanistan - that other graveyard of Western hopes - will see the final withdrawal of foreign forces, testing whether any of their achievements can be sustained. Europe, for its part, is now divided between a stagnant eurozone and steady recovery in those countries fortunate enough to be outside. Britain is in the lucky category and our economy is likely to outperform our neighbours in 2014. We also have a stake in America's leadership and Asia's success. As such, we should be part of the benign trends of 2014. On balance, we can safely feel cheerful.