RIM Stock Gets a Lift A 20 to 30 percent chance of success is hardly a ringing endorsement. But that forecast for the coming line of BlackBerry 10 phones by Peter Misek, an analyst with Jeffries, was enough to raise the stock price of Research in Motion on Tuesday. At noon, RIM's stock trading on Nasdaq was up just under 4 percent at $9.97 after the release of a note to investors by Mr. Misek in which he changed his rating for the company to hold from underperform. He also doubled his target price for RIM's shares to $10 from $5. RIM stock closed up 1.2 percent at $9.70. RIM has staked its future on the new line of phones and their operating system, which it hopes will renew the BlackBerry brand in the United States, where the company has gone to also-ran from market leader. Last week, the company said the phones would be unveiled on Jan. 30 and available for sale shortly afterward. Mr. Misek's tempered enthusiasm for BlackBerry 10 was based on the "strongly positive initial feedback" for BlackBerry 10 that he found while surveying wireless carriers. Because American carriers heavily subsidize the initial sale price of handsets and have a variety of ways to promote devices to consumers, that support is an important first step. "We are a bit puzzled, as we expected a more muted response, given B.B.10 is two years late and RIM's market share has plunged from 20 percent to 5 percent," Mr. Misek wrote. He added that the carriers' reaction might have less to do with the new phones than their desire not to have the smartphone market completely dominated by Apple's iPhones and Google's Android operating system. There is no guarantee that consumers will share their carriers' enthusiasm when BlackBerry 10 finally arrives, of course. "Despite better prospects, we still see only a 20 percent to 30 percent of B.B.10 success as consumer demand will be the ultimate determinant," wrote Mr. Misek, who has long followed RIM and long been pessimistic about its prospects. Other analysts, including Kris Thompson, with National Bank Financial in Toronto, have also become more positive about RIM recently. But the sentiment is not unanimous. Earlier this month, James Faucette, an analyst with Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Ore., wrote, "We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm response at best and ultimately likely to fail."