Key Statistics of N.F.L. Contenders The playoff picture has started to take shape in both conferences. In the A.F.C., the New England Patriots, the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos should clinch their division titles with weeks to spare, while Baltimore is the clear front-runner in the A.F.C. North. In the N.F.C., the Giants took a big step toward clinching the East crown by defeating Green Bay on Sunday night, which cut the Packers' margin for error in their chase of Chicago for the N.F.C. North title. Atlanta and San Francisco remain heavy favorites to win their divisions and to get the first two seeds in the conference. But not all division winners are created equally, nor do all of the division front-runners have equally good teams. This week, I'm going to look at some key statistics for each team. Atlanta Falcons - Record in Close Games In 2010, Atlanta raced to a 10-2 record on the strength of an improbable 7-1 record in games decided by 7 or fewer points. How a team fares in close games has a heavy impact on a team's final record, but statisticians agree that such a metric holds little predictive value. The Falcons earned the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. thanks to their success in close games, but ranked only seventh in the Football Outsiders advanced statistical rankings and 21st in the Advanced NFL Stats efficiency ratings. Atlanta lost badly in its playoff opener, not surprising to those who felt the Falcons' record was more mirage than reality. This season, Atlanta has raced to a 10-1 record on the strength of an improbable 7-1 record in games decided by 7 or fewer points. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons 12th, and according to its founder, Aaron Schatz, the Falcons have by far the worst efficiency rating of any of the 18 teams that have started 10-1 since 1991. Advanced NFL Stats is slightly more generous, placing the Falcons fifth, although the gap between the fifth and 12th teams in its rating is miniscule. The takeaway: Don't get caught up in the Falcons' record. It will give Atlanta a bye, but no other guarantees come with it. San Francisco - Top Pass Defense in the N.F.L. Last season, the 49ers' reputation for having an elite defense was built on their superb run defense, which ranked first in rushing yards allowed, rushing yards per carry allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. But the 49ers were not dominant against the pass, ranking ninth in net yards per pass attempt allowed. This season, the San Francisco defense is without weakness. The 49ers (8-2-1) actually lead the N.F.L. in net yards per pass attempt allowed. In the process, the 49ers lead the N.F.L. in points allowed, and their defense ranks in the top three in both first downs allowed and Pro-Football-Reference's Expected Points Added statistic. The run defense remains stout, ranking in the top four in yards, yards per carry and touchdowns allowed, but the improvement in the pass defense makes this an even better defense than the 2011 version. As long as San Francisco continues to shut down opposing passers, it won't matter very much whether Coach Jim Harbaugh picks Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. Chicago - 11th in Points Scored Without an Offense As a technical matter, the Bears (8-3) rank 11th in points scored. Just don't let anyone tell you that in the context of a story about how Chicago's offense is underrated. The Bears have scored eight non-offensive touchdowns this season -- seven on interception returns, one on a blocked punt -- and their great defense and special teams consistently set up the offense for success even when those units aren't scoring touchdowns. Chicago is in the bottom five in Net Yards per Attempt, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, total yards and sacks allowed. The Bears' running game benefits from a high number of carries, but ranks below average in both yards per carry and PFR's Expected Points Added statistic. The defense is excellent, but a poor offensive line and mediocre wide receiver talent behind Brandon Marshall leave the Bears with one of the worst offenses in the N.F.L. -- regardless of how many points they've scored. Advanced NFL Stats ranks the Bears' offense as the second worst in the league. New York - Giant Slayers The Giants have been 7-4 or 6-5 after 11 games in seven of the last eight seasons. Giants supporters would like you to believe that their performances against Green Bay and San Francisco matter more than what happened against Philadelphia and Cincinnati. After all, the Giants (7-4) have shown the ability to rise up against the elite teams in the league before, a sign that a Super Bowl awaits, correct? Not exactly. In 2007, the Giants won the Super Bowl after going a dismal 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season, with the lone win coming against Washington, the conference's No. 6 seed. Last season, the Giants were just 1-3 against playoff teams -- with the one win coming against New England, which was just 1-2 against playoff teams last year. The Giants still have games left against Baltimore and Atlanta, but how much does success against these teams in the regular season mean? The 2011 Packers, the 2011 Ravens, the 2010 Patriots and the 2007 Patriots each won six games against eventual playoff teams, the only teams to do so since 2002. None of them won the Super Bowl. In fact, of the last five Super Bowl winners, only one -- the New Orleans Saints (3-1), in 2009 -- had a winning record in the regular season against playoff teams. The Giants do lead the league in one key metric: avoiding sacks. The Giants have been sacked only 14 times, giving them a sack rate of 3.4 percent, and both marks are the best in the N.F.L. The Giants have 16 more sacks than they've surrendered, placing them second in the league in net sacks behind the Denver Broncos (21). New England - No. 1 in Everything The Patriots (8-3) are ranked No. 1 in an amazing number of stats. You already know that New England leads the league in points, yards and first downs, as well as points differential and rushing first downs. They also lead the N.F.L. in categories like interception rate (0.71%), third-down conversion rate (53.2%) and turnover differential (+24). Those three categories are important in deciding who wins and loses but are more random than other statistics and therefore hold less predictive value. Still, because of how dominant the Patriots have been in every major offensive category, I wouldn't get too worked up over the fact that they've arguably been lucky when it comes to third-down rates and turnovers. In any event, such luck is probably balanced out by New England's 2-3 record in close games. Denver - 8-3 Despite Terrible Fumble Luck The Broncos have won six straight games, and an easy remaining schedule sets them up for 12 or 13 wins. Amazingly, they've done this despite having terrible luck when it comes to recovering fumbles. Denver has forced 17 fumbles while coughing up 16. Once a ball is fumbled, it isn't the better team that generally recovers the ball, it's the team closest to the ball, and fumble recovery rates are notoriously random. Thirteen of Denver's 16 fumbles were recovered by the defense, while the Broncos recovered only 5 of the 17 fumbles they forced. That means Denver has recovered just 24 percent (8 of 33) of the fumbles that have occurred in their games, making them as unfortunate as any team in the league. The good news for Broncos fans is that there is no reason to expect the Broncos' poor fumble-recovery luck to continue, which makes them the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky. Houston - Death by Balance The Texans (10-1) are the most balanced team in the N.F.L. The team is known for its running game -- Houston ranks fifth in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns -- but the Texans have also been outstanding against the run, ranking second in yards and first in rushing touchdowns allowed. The Texans also rank sixth in both net yards per pass attempt and net yards per pass attempt allowed. But here's a 30,000-foot view of how balanced the Texans are. Houston ranks in the top five in points and points allowed and in the top five in first downs and first downs allowed. Since 1990, only five teams -- the 1992 Cowboys, the 1995 49ers, the 1996 Packers, the 1998 Jets and the 2007 Patriots -- have ranked in the top five in each of those four categories. Baltimore - The Most Special 9-2 Team If you've watched Baltimore games this year, you might be surprised to learn that the Ravens are 9-2. In fact, you'd be surprised to learn any team like Baltimore could win 9 of 11 games. Consider that the Ravens aren't impressive in any major area: Baltimore ranks 16th in net yards per pass attempt and 15th in NY/A allowed, making them as average as it gets. They are both rushing for and allowing 4.0 yards per carry. According to Advanced NFL Stats, the Ravens are the 19th-best team in the N.F.L., thanks to the 16th-best offense and the 18th-best defense. Football Outsiders places their offense 13th and their defense 23rd. They appear in all respects to be average. So how are the Ravens 9-2? For starters, Baltimore has a 6-1 record in close games. But there is a second reason: special teams. According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore's special teams rank as the best in the N.F.L. by a mile. The Ravens have the second-best special teams through 12 weeks of any team since 1991.