ABDULKADER SALEH cuts a lonely figure inside his sandbagged base in a rebel-controlled district of Aleppo. Most of the men from the 33-year-old commander's brigade are out taking part in an operation in Aleppo province, attacking a Syrian army base to the north-west. If they succeed, they will open up a swathe of land and take out one source of the shelling that makes life in city miserable. Since rebels advanced into Aleppo in July, Syria's second city has been a microcosm of the nationwide stand-off between President Bashar Assad's forces and the opposition fighters. Aleppo's mainly residential districts in the east, running to the heart of the old city, are staked out by groups of opposition fighters, while the regime occupies the western areas, where the majority of its bases lie. But although Aleppo is still divided fairly equally between the two sides, it is no longer representative of the balance of power elsewhere. In the past two weeks opposition fighters such as Mr Saleh's have enjoyed a run of successes, capturing at least five army bases, some of them air installations. On November 17th fighters in Deir ez-Zor, a fertile, oil-rich province that borders Iraq to the east, seized the military airport in Abu Kamal, allowing them to move westward to grab a large base in Mayadeen, a dusty town on the road. More significantly for the rebels" plan to head from their northern stronghold to Damascus, fighters have seized the 46th division base at Atareb, west of Aleppo. Such attacks not only disable the regime. They have also provided tanks, large artillery and, crucially, anti-aircraft missiles. On November 27th rebels appeared to put the first surface-to-air missile to use, shooting down a helicopter west of Aleppo. The following day they downed a MiG-23 jet. As in the rest of the country, the rebel forces in Aleppo are a disparate bunch. Mr Saleh commands the biggest, Liwa al-Tawhid. Both it and Liwah al-Fatah are more moderate, in religious terms, than the two other substantial groups: Jabhat al-Nusra, who declare themselves to be jihadis, and Ahrar al-Sham, which is Salafist. Despite their differences, the four carry out joint operations. "We are not trying to take more ground in the city because we controlled a neighbourhood of 15 square kilometres [six square miles] for 8 days and it cost us 85,000 bullets," says Abu Fouad of Liwa al-Fatah. Whereas you spend less for an operation [against an army base] and get more weapons. Former members of the Syrian army reckon their advice is helping the mainly civilian fighters. Colonel Abdul Jabbar Akaidi, who runs Aleppo's Military Council from a villa in the countryside, and Major Assam Rayes, of the Joint Military Command (which helps plan operations and provides weapons), have been advising rebels to cut the regime's supply lines to Aleppo, and to ransack exposed garrisons that are being supplied by helicopter now that rebels control much of the main highway from Aleppo to Damascus. Such tactics may force the regime to withdraw from the stretch north-west of Aleppo to the Iraqi border in the east, changing the dynamics of what looked as if it was a war of attrition. That would leave a fierce fight for Damascus, where at least 34 people were killed in two car bombs on November 28th. Despite repeated thwackings, its eastern and southern districts remain in rebel hands. They have also taken bases in the suburbs of Sayada Zeinab and Hajar al-Aswad. As the rebels gain in strength, the regime's forces may be losing morale. "When I defected in June, the soldiers were getting more scared," says Major Rayes. Now it is much worse. A new opposition coalition formed in Doha in November, which is recognised by the likes of Britain and France, has added to the sense that the odds are stacked against Mr Assad. Yet for all their progress, the rebels are still far from victory. While Syria's government talks of a war economy, flight records uncovered by investigative reporters suggest that Russia supplied hundreds of tonnes of banknotes to Syria to help stave off economic collapse. Regime air strikes continue to terrify, this week crushing Aleppo's last hospital in the opposition-controlled areas and scattering a cluster bomb over a children's playground close to Damascus. To make a difference, rebels need more anti-aircraft weapons and the know-how to use them - something one group has sought to spread by filming a demonstration and posting it on YouTube. Meanwhile, the rebels are well aware of what is going on beyond Syria's borders. "Assad is not going anywhere until the international support for him changes," says Abu Omar, the commander of a group of Liwa al-Tawhid fighters in Aleppo's Bab al-Hadid neighbourhood. He points to Mr Assad's continued backing by Russia and Iran, his main allies, and regrets that America and Britain have refused to arm rebel fighters. Sitting in a former hairdressing salon adorned with mirrors and swivel chairs, Abu Omar echoes a warning common among moderate commanders: failure to arm them means people will turn to al-Qaeda-inspired groups instead. Indeed the jihadi Jabhat al-Nusra, originally a small outfit with a penchant for bombings, has started to find favour in rebel strongholds. Aleppans, who view many of the rebels as uncouth bumpkins, point out that the group carries out attacks, rather than occupying their districts and inviting shelling. Devout beliefs have restrained thuggish behaviour. Syrians are already worrying about what happens if Mr Assad eventually goes. Aleppans point to piles of rubbish on every corner as a sign of the fighters" lack of concern for civilians. The rebels remain divided. Scuffles between the majority Sunni Arab fighters and Kurdish groups continue in the east. "Progress militarily has been great," says a Syrian who helps to channel weapons to the fighters from Turkey. But we all fear what comes next.