Videos From Syria Appear to Show First Confirmed Hit of Aircraft by Surface-to-Air Missile These two videos (in order) are freshly moving online. The first shows a Syrian Air Force helicopter of the Mi-8 line clearly being hit by a fast-moving projectile as it makes its way through a slow left turn. The second video shows what appears to be the same aircraft in an almost controlled descent, but burning, before it crashes on level ground. The footage was taken in Aleppo. What can't be readily determined is the precise type of missile. The aircraft appears to be well beyond the range of a rocket-propelled grenade, and the plume of burning propellant is much thicker than the trail left by such weapons. The natural suspect would be an SA-7 MANPADS, but any analysis suggesting that is fairly crude, as that weapon's place at the top of the likely list is due only to the fact that the SA-7, with gripstock, has been the complete system most commonly seen thus far in the conflict. No doubt like many MANPADS watchers this morning, Matthew Schroeder, who covers missile proliferation at the Federation of American Scientists has been examining the videos. He said by telephone that what is shown "certainly could be a MANPADs." But he added he would have greater confidence if there was video of the weapon actually being fired. This points to what is needed now to speak with more authority: Patience. With time, perhaps only minutes or hours, more videos should appear. If the pattern holds, then various groups will take credit for this downing. Watch closely, should these videos appear, and take note of what weapons the fighters in the videos will be holding, and whether the firing point is shown. Meanwhile, context: This moment was a long time coming, and so is unsurprising. The ground-to-air war (and the likely regime retaliation for this hit) can be expected to be bloodier from here. Remember the strike in Azaz after the jet downing this summer? We'll have more soon, as surface-to-air missile proliferation has become almost its own beat. For background, try here or here, for starters.