China wrestles over democratic reform When Chinese President Hu Jintao addressed his comrades at the opening of the 17th Communist party congress five years ago, he used the word minzhu - democracy - 69 times. In addition to talking about grassroots democracy, socialist democracy and "intraparty" democracy, Mr Hu explained how the party was building a "rich, strong, democratic, civilised and harmonious modernised socialist country." When the 18th party congress opens on Thursday, Mr Hu will step up to the podium with just one week remaining as leader of a party that is richer, stronger and more modern and has 10m more members than it did five years ago. But for the vast majority of the subjects of this secretive Leninist party, the world's most populous nation is no more democratic and rather less harmonious than it was when Mr Hu made that speech. After three decades of sweeping economic reforms and average annual growth rates near 10 per cent, the party is under more pressure to reform the opaque authoritarian system than at any time since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. "Today the most important thing is political reform," says Ren Yi, the grandson of reform-minded former Chinese leader Ren Zhongyi. All Chinese, including those inside the system, all agree that it's the next big thing. Another "princeling," as the progeny of senior officials are known, puts it more bluntly: "The best time for China is over and the entire system needs to be overhauled." This son of a former government minister says the party's authority is "declining at the same time that the economic backdrop has become much worse." He added that without new rules of the game, Chinese politics would "descend into chaos." China's annual economic growth rate has slipped from 12 per cent at the start of 2010 to around 7.5 per cent. Perhaps partly as a result, the belief that it must retool its authoritarian political structure has become surprisingly widespread among those who have benefited the most from that system. Even the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist party, said in an editorial this week that "as public awareness of the right to know and participate as well as the rule of law increases, democracy in China has not reached the level many people expect." As a new generation of leaders, led by president-in-waiting Xi Jinping, prepares to take the helm of the party next week, there are tentative signs they may be willing to countenance greater political freedoms. A growing cohort of senior advisers within the party are warning that if they do not take this route then the very survival of the regime could be threatened. The Organisation Department, which oversees party personnel issues, this year ordered a study into how Taiwan and South Korea transformed themselves from authoritarian military regimes to flourishing democracies during the 1980s and 1990s. According to people familiar with the research, the scholars who wrote the report were specifically asked to examine how that transformation was relevant to China. Li Yuanchao, head of the Organisation Department, was until recently seen as a frontrunner for elevation to the politburo standing committee, the elite group that rules China. As a provincial official, Mr Li attended a training programme at Harvard University and also experimented with elections of lower level officials. In recent days, some political insiders have claimed that rivals have successfully blocked Mr Li, an ally of President Hu, from promotion to the standing committee. But others insist his chances will be better if the party allows a small group of senior officials to vote in a competitive, if severely limited, internal election. This would be a small step toward "intraparty" democracy, a move that many in China see as a possible precursor to much broader political reforms. But it is far from certain that even this tiny, incremental move is on the cards. "This is a question of legitimacy and popular support for the party," says Susan Shirk, a US expert on Chinese politics. They need to show that they're moving in the direction of democracy but they are very fearful of losing actual control. The concept of open political contests behind closed doors is one that authoritarian neighbours like Vietnam and Myanmar have adopted, to the chagrin of China's leaders, who have banned public discussion of the politics in those countries. "Whoever can promote political reform [in China] will gain huge political capital and will be held in high esteem by the people and that is a big incentive," says Mr Ren. But most advocates of reform are not optimistic that the new leaders will be any more successful than the outgoing administration of Mr Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao in implementing real political change. They point to Mr Wen's increasingly plaintive public calls for greater democracy and political liberalisation in recent years, some of which were even censored by the country's powerful propaganda authorities. Zhang Jian, an associate professor at Peking University, says the party has "picked all the low-hanging fruit" over the past three decades. Now it is time for major political and systemic reform on the tree itself. But the party is not able to take the fundamental step of restraining itself and handing power over to the people.