UN set to back Palestinian status upgrade The Palestinians are set to score a potentially important diplomatic victory at the UN on Thursday, amid clear indications that the majority of UN member states will back a resolution in support of a Palestinian state. Diplomats and officials expect overwhelming support in the UN general assembly for a proposal to raise the Palestinian status at the global body from that of a non-member observer "entity" to that of a non-member observer "state." This will give the Palestinians the same standing enjoyed by the Vatican. Israel and the US, which have campaigned vigorously against the upgrade, are likely to find themselves largely isolated. Palestinian officials expect more than 140 out of 193 UN member states to support the resolution, including heavyweights such as China, India, Russia and France. They are hoping that votes against the motion can be kept to around 10. William Hague, the UK foreign secretary, indicated on Wednesday that Britain would abstain. The upgrade falls short of full UN membership, and will have little impact on the rights and powers of the Palestinian delegation in New York. Palestinian officials believe, however, that it will strengthen their hand in future negotiations with Israel, not least by highlighting Israel's growing international isolation. They point out that the upgrade will make it easier for the Palestinians to join other UN bodies and agencies, including - most controversially - the International Criminal Court. Israel has been deeply alarmed by the idea of Palestinian membership of the ICC, fearing that it could open the gate to a flood of criminal proceedings against senior Israeli officials for alleged war crimes and other abuses. A resounding vote in favour of Palestinian statehood will hand a much-needed political victory to Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, who has spearheaded the move at the UN. The veteran leader has lost ground to the rival Hamas movement in recent years, raising concern in western capitals for the future of both Mr Abbas and his more moderate brand of Palestinian nationalism. These fears were heightened further by this month's bloody clash between Israel and Hamas, in which the Islamist group fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, displaying the kind of aggressive defiance towards Israel that many Palestinians admire. "The war on Gaza increased public support for Hamas to a large extent, and made Mr Abbas and the PA [Palestinian Authority] seem less relevant and more marginalised," said Ghassan Khatib, a political analyst at Birzeit University and former government official. Diplomats said the latest escalation in Gaza triggered a late rush by European countries to bolster the weakened Palestinian leader, with no fewer than seven governments announcing their backing for the UN resolution since the end of fighting last Wednesday. "They want a political victory for the Palestinian leadership [around Mr Abbas] and to show that there is still a diplomatic path," said one Palestinian official. Mindful of Mr Abbas's predicament, both Israel and the US have in recent days toned down their public criticism of the UN move. Though both countries remain deeply opposed to the upgrade, the Israeli government has signalled publicly that it will not impose punitive measures on the PA in response to the vote. Israeli officials caution, however, that they stand ready to take tough measures against Mr Abbas if he makes any move towards joining the ICC. These could include cutting off financial transfers to the PA, expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank settlements or annexing parts of the occupied Palestinian territories to Israel. Mr Abbas and other Palestinian leaders have said repeatedly that the UN move is not intended as an alternative to negotiations with Israel, and have offered to restart talks after the vote provided Israel put an end to settlement building in the occupied territories. Most analysts argue, however, that the Palestinian move is likely to complicate a return to the negotiating table, at least in the short run. "The Palestinians are sending a dual message," said Robert Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. On the one hand they are saying they want to work with Israel on a negotiated settlement but they are also confronting them diplomatically. The Israelis see the confrontation, but they don't see the larger strategy. Mr Khatib, meanwhile, warned against reading too much into the political symbolism of the UN move. The Palestinians will be happy, but not for long. They will realise after two or three days that nothing has changed: the occupation will still be there, the settlers will still be there, the financial crisis will still be there and the split with Hamas will still be there," he said. The Palestinians have too many symbolical victories already, but this is not real. We have so many good UN resolutions that the Israelis do not respect, and this will be another one.