Election Day 2012: The Voters, The Map And The Math (The Note) The first Election Day votes of 2012 came in just after midnight last night - ten of them, anyway. While still lacking a majority in vote preference, Obama has reached 51 percent job approval, matching his best this year; extended his advantage in better understanding Americans" economic problems; and moved to within a single point of Romney in trust to handle the economy, reversing a 9-point Romney lead on the central issue of the campaign. http://abcn.ws/RBBxOa About a 1,000 miles away, in Manchester, N.H., Republican challenger Mitt Romney ended his campaign in an equally symbolic place - the very state where he announced his presidential bid in June 2011. http://abcn.ws/Tt9Rra THE MAP: On Election Day, President Obama still has the clearer path to 270 Electoral Votes, according to ABC News Political Director Amy Walter. THE SENATE: The key races to watch are in Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana and Virginia, and there's a good chance Republicans will lose all four - and with them - any chance at the majority. Of those, just four - New Hampshire, Montana, North Carolina and Washington State - are competitive. ABC's AMY WALTER: They say the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, but Team Romney doesn't exactly buy that. Their get-out-the-vote effort - dubbed Project ORCA - is also serving as a kind of shadow exit poll operation, ready to debunk reports that come from either the actual exit polls or estimates from the networks. Said one Romney advisor yesterday on a call to discuss the ORCA operation: "What we are saying is your numbers don't matter to us." This could make for a long and confrontational evening. ABC's RICK KLEIN: A campaign that really hasn't been about race for the most part could be settled along racial lines. If President Obama wins, he'll be powered to a second term by another surge in minority voting. If Mitt Romney wins, white voters will carry him to the presidency in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and possibly Pennsylvania. Among the many challenges of the new presidency will be rising above a divided moment, one that pits two sides that don't speak the same language - sometimes literally. The losing side may not represent a silent majority, but it will be a silenced near-majority - one that's either growing or shrinking, depending on who wins. ABC's Jake Tapper reports for "Good Morning America" that President Obama and the first lady arrived in Chicago at 1 a.m., spending the night in their Hyde Park house after a whirlwind day of campaigning-when President Obama teared up addressing 20,000 Iowans just a few yards away from his former 2008 campaign headquarters. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/RCXlck ABC's David Muir goes behind the scenes on the Mitt Romney campaign for "Good Morning America," reporting that Romney will vote this morning in Belmont, Mass., after a sprint to the finish that started in Ohio on Monday. Romney told voters there that he won't "waste any time complaining about my predecessor" if elected, and aboard his campaign plane he told ESPN's Chris Berman, during a Monday Night Football halftime interview that he supports the New England Patriots (not the Detroit Lions), "and I take full personal responsibility for their two Super Bowl wins." WATCH: http://abcn.ws/UvcPMM Republicans have a good opportunity to make gains in the Senate today, ABC's Jonathan Karl reports, with 23 Democratic seats and only 10 Republican seats up for election. Three races to follow: Massachusetts, where Republican Scott Brown trails badly to Democrat Elizabeth Warren; Indiana, a previously safe Republican seat that's in danger after tea partier Richard Mourdock unseated incumbent GOP Sen. Dick Lugar in their primary; and Missouri, where Todd Akin endangered a GOP pickup opportunity with his "legitimate rape" comment. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/SRkTet After a campaign that's focused heavily on he female vote, and with President Obama leading Mitt Romney among women 53 percent to 45 percent according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, ABC's George Stephanopoulos asks Donna Brazille, Cokie Roberts, and Nicolle Wallace how women will vote tonight. There will always be a gender gap for Republicans, Wallace says, but Romney could win the election on his success in communicating with women about the economy. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/PAm8Oi On "Good Morning America," ABC's Matthew Dowd breaks down the latest polling, which gives President Obama a narrow edge. Hurricane Sandy was the "unexpected event" that may have turned the race, Dowd says. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/U6qIR2 Josh Elliott reports for "Good Morning America" on what voters are searching for on Election Day. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/UvcQQZ Vice President Joe Biden voted in Delaware this morning, glad-handing in line at the polls and joking with voters about how he has to wait as long as everyone else. Don't forget: think of me when you go in to vote. I'm not supposed to campaign," he told a little girl, apparently voting with her mother, after he left the voting booth. http://abcn.ws/RcYs0W FROM TEAM ROMNEY: A campaign aide passes along an Election Day state-of-the-race memo: "Mitt Romney is up or tied with Obama in every key battleground state, forcing Obama on defense in states he won by double digits in 2008 like WI, IA, MI, MN and PA. Obama's firewall includes two states - WI and IA - he won by double digits and is even with Romney in the polls today. Ohio is his other firewall - a state Obama has been visiting for 4 years and has spent millions of dollars on the air. Obama is behind where he was in 2008 in early vote. The Republican ground game is going to push us over the top. We're seeing this everywhere - Obama has lost his 2008 advantage with his ground game and early vote. With the campaigns even on the ground and in early vote, GOP enthusiasm is going to carry Romney to victory. Romney aides also highlight what they say will be a massive poll monitoring effort called Project ORCA that will engage tens of thousands of volunteers armed with smart phone apps to keep an eye on the progress of voting in key battlegrounds states. The campaign views it as one enormous exit poll as well as a tool to determine where they need to re-allocate get-out-the-vote resources in real time: Project ORCA enhances and magnifies the impact of the turnout operation. To date, we have more than 34,000 volunteers throughout the target states, and we will have more than 800 volunteers at headquarters in Boston ... It is estimated that Project ORCA will decipher 18 to 23 million people have voted by the time all voting has concluded. This massive "sample size" not only ensure the most accurate ballot projections ever, but it will also ensure hyper-accuracy of our supporter targeting as we work to turn them out to the polls. The general idea is to conduct the world's largest exit poll. Through Project ORCA, at any given moment we will know the current ballot in every State, DMA & County ... For example: If we happen to be down in a state at lunch time, we can pinpoint exactly what is causing. So, if we know we're going to win X state by 3 points, let's move our resources to Y state, county. In sum, Project ORCA will give us an enormous advantage by being able to know the current result of a state. FROM TEAM OBAMA: "We've already banked a big portion of our votes - in several battleground states, more than 50 percent of votes have already been cast. Here's where things stand already this morning: We are winning in every battleground state among those who voted early - by large margins in most states. That leaves Romney needing to make up significant ground in order to tie us. Newly registered voters, infrequent voters, and those who voted for the first time in 2008 have voted early, and the overwhelming majority of them are Democrats. Most early voters are African-Americans, Latinos, women and young people, all groups that overwhelmingly support President Obama. More people will vote in 2012 than in 2008 - but Election Day started weeks ago. No matter what you hear today about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, it's important to remember that, because of early votes, we've banked hundreds of thousands of votes already. With the historic grassroots GOTV effort we have in place for Election Day, we're exactly where we need to be to win. In their last widely broadcast appeals to the nation, both President Obama and Mitt Romney sat for interviews with ESPN's Chris Berman, airing at halftime of last night's game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints. Both candidates showed off their "everyman" credentials in what could be their last chance-outside of TV ads-to address Americans who don't follow political news. From ABC's Devin Dwyer: Comparing politics to sports, Berman asked Obama how he planned to "repeat"-one of the most difficult feats for a "championship" team. "But the key is just to stay focused on what it is that you're doing." http://abcn.ws/YOn2Z5 More from ABC's Devin Dwyer: Berman asked Romney about the most valuable lesson he could apply in the Oval Office he learned from shepherding the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Winter Games. "It's a place where you see what is beneath the surface of an individual human being and you come away inspired." http://abcn.ws/YOn2Z5 The candidate will milk his final hours on the trail for all they're worth, ABC's Emily Friedman reports from Dulles, Va.: Mitt Romney has been chanting "one more day" all day today on the stump, but as it turns out, he will campaign for yet another day, Tuesday, Election Day. It was not immediately clear how many events would be held in each state or what kind of events they will be. http://abcn.ws/RMQSrT Many an analyst has opined that today will be all about turnout, and ABC's Devin Dwyer reports that President Obama agrees: We have enough voters to win, it's just a matter of whether they show up," Obama told syndicated radio talk show host Warren Ballentine in a taped interview that ran Monday morning. "If all the people who support me vote, then we'll be fine," he said. http://abcn.ws/TtOCHP ABC's Shushannah Walshe reports from Milwaukee: Paul Ryan held his final rally of the campaign in his home state late tonight telling his fellow Wisconsinites that they may not have been in the presidential spotlight in a long time and were taken "for granted," but that time is now over, asking the crowd to "prove them wrong." One more day... Let's prove them wrong." http://abcn.ws/VwQC6I ABC's Arlette Saenz reports from Sterling, Va.: Vice President Joe Biden told reporters today that he was feeling optimistic about Tuesday's election and joked that the election is "all over but the shouting." But you know, as an old expression goes, it's all over but the shouting," Biden told reporters during a stop at Mimi's Café here. "But it feels good though, feels good. So far, so good." http://abcn.ws/RN9cRG ABC's Emily Friedman reports from Fairfax, Va.: Ann Romney may already be daydreaming about life in the White House, asking a huge crowd in northern Virginia today if they thought she and her husband might be moving to neighboring Washington come January. Mrs. Romney asked a roaring crowd of 8,500. http://abcn.ws/Tt6T5K ABC's Emily Friedman recaps her year and a half on the campaign trail with the Republican presidential nominee: The meeting was brief, the handshake firm. That meeting was more than 16 months ago, and since then I have traveled the globe tracking Romney's every movement, from how many press conferences he's held (49) to how many flights his campaign plane has taken (more than 80, and I was on board for all but a few)." http://abcn.ws/RFZjXO ABC's Emily Friedman reports on Romney's rally in Sanford, Fla.: "Tomorrow, we begin a new tomorrow," Romney said, speaking to his first of five rallies today. We can begin a better tomorrow tomorrow, and with the help of the people in Florida, that's exactly what's going to happen," he said. http://abcn.ws/SKiDod ABC's Shushannah Walshe reports from Des Moines, Iowa: Paul Ryan held the last Romney 2012 campaign event in Iowa this evening, flying in from Colorado for a brief airplane hangar rally to the place where the presidential choosing contest begins: the first caucus state of Iowa. And that's why we only have one more day before we get us on the right track." http://abcn.ws/Qjz0d9 ABC's Shushannah Walshe reports from Johnston, Colo.: Just hours before voting starts, Paul Ryan stopped at a diner here, but didn't give much away about how he was doing before what could be the biggest day of his life. Ryan didn't answer when reporters asked him if he has spoken to his running mate today, although he has said in the past they talk daily. http://abcn.ws/YMZFiy ABC's Shushannah Walshe reports from Reno, Nev.: Rep. Paul Ryan began his final day on the campaign trail today with a stop here before he holds four other events, stopping in each of the time zones in the United States for his final push, calling the whirlwind sprint a "barn burner." We are crisscrossing the country, Mitt and I are, because we are asking you to work with us, to stand with us to get our country back on the right track." http://abcn.ws/Vv0AFu ABC's Devin Dwyer reports: On the phone with New Jersey Gov. - and Bruce Springsteen superfan - Chris Christie to discuss Hurricane Sandy recovery efforts, Obama patched in the legendary rocker, who was joining him on the flight. Springsteen has famously avoided the governor because of political differences, somewhat to Christie's dismay. "The president told me if I had one more minute, there was someone else he wanted me to talk to," Christie told reporters at a press conference. It was a good conversation today and it was great to talk to the president-and even better to talk to Bruce." http://abcn.ws/Ue8W4n If one state has caused nightmares about a delayed result in the presidential election, it's Ohio. At The Week, Marc Ambinder asks if Secretary of State John Husted will become the next Katherine Harris: "Mr. Husted seems determined to make a name for himself, and not in a way that will please those of us who want the election to end on a peaceful and lawsuit-free note. ... Husted, 45, went along with national GOP efforts to try and eliminate early voting in the state. It would protect the integrity of the ballot, he insisted. ... A week ago, Husted told local election officials that ballots marked with improper identification had to be rejected and destroyed ... Husted acted as if the integrity of election machines were trivial. ...Husted allowed the creator of voting tabulation software to install so-called "patches" on machines that will ultimately process more than 4,000,000 votes. Husted's defense is that the coding changes are "experimental.""http://bit.ly/U50oa0 How many problems does Jay-Z have? ABC's Devin Dwyer reports from Columbus, Ohio, where the rapper performed at a rally for Obama: Jay-Z, a longtime Obama backer and fundraiser, brought down the house with a bone-shaking and deafeningly loud set of his hits that included a censored rendition of "99 Problems," replacing the word "b***" with "Mitt." It goes like this-so let's do it real fast before they come up here" and take the mic away. http://abcn.ws/REMtJp Today, Washington may very well become the first state to legalize the possession, cultivation, and commercial sale of marijuana, both Republicans and Democrats say-bringing the state into apparent conflict with federal law if voters approve Initiative 502, which would allow residents over 21 to buy pot from stores licensed and regulated by the state liquor board. "We are not going to speculate on the outcome of the various ballot initiatives in each of the states," Department of Justice spokeswoman Allison Price wrote in an email. http://abcn.ws/VQg9TE From ABC's Devin Dwyer: In a radio interview this morning with "Pedro Biaggi en la Manana" on El Zol 107.9 FM, President Obama was asked what he thought of Donald Trump's stunt two weeks ago, offering to make a $5 million donation to charity if Obama released his academic records. "I think it's always a good rule."http://abcn.ws/UdrAcE @hickforco: Make sure you vote. Make sure your friends, family and neighbors vote. Make sure your voice is heard! #pollsabouttoopen @HotlineJosh: Based on the early/absentee vote tallies, more optimistic about O's chances in VA, more pessimistic about his chances in OH @bdomenech: Early numbers looking better for Romney in Ohio than I expected, worse in Virginia @jparkABC: Long lines - about an hour and a half wait at this polling station in Virginia. #electionday #gotv pic.twitter.com/jfExiomE @mviser: RT @RyanGOP: PHOTO: TD Garden in Boston set up for Romney Campaign Election Day War Room. #tcot pic.twitter.com/1hN23r3p @KLSoltis: I've spent the last 4 years focused on one number: Obama won young voters by a 34-pt margin. Feels weird knowing that number expires today. President Obama will spend Election Day in Chicago, according to his campaign. He will participate in a dozen satellite interviews in battleground states in the morning and afternoon and later he "will honor his Election Day tradition of pickup basketball with friends and staffers." The First Family will have dinner at their home in Hyde Park before heading to an Election night watch party at McCormick Place Lakeshore Center in Chicago. Mitt Romney begins the day by casting his ballot at the Beech Street Center in Belmont, Mass. before heading to Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pa. for get-out-the-vote events. Vice President Joe Biden voted this morning in Wilmington, Delaware before heading to Chicago. The vice president and Dr. Jill Biden will join the First Family at an Election night watch party at McCormick Place Lakeshore Center in Chicago. Paul Ryan will cast his ballot at the Hedberg Public Library in Janesville, Wisc. before joining Mitt Romney for a get-out-the-vote event in Cleveland, Ohio and traveling on to Richmond, Va. Ryan ends the day in Boston for an Election night watch party there.