Week 16 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups Jason and Justin Sablich provide fantasy football advice and analysis throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter @5thDownFantasy. Welcome to Week 16, which for some of you will be the most important weekend of football viewing this year, assuming your fantasy team has made it to a title game. With that in mind, we'd like to share a few simple and timeless tips that we've picked up on over the years to help you prepare for your championship showdown. 1) Don't Get Cute. You've had 15 weeks to play around with your lineup and you may have taken some bold gambles. Maybe it paid off that time you played the matchups and started Joique Bell over Jamaal Charles in Week 9. But if you went with Josh Freeman over Aaron Rodgers last week because you were sure Freeman would again make a mockery of the Saints secondary, you're probably playing for third place this week rather than first. Stick with your studs and if you go down, at least you'll know you had your best team on the field and you'll sleep better on Monday night. 2) Watch The Weather Channel. Or check weather.com, or whatever forecast provider you prefer. This time of year, a winter storm can wreak all kinds of havoc on fantasy performances. Remember how good Tom Brady was during the 2007 season? He was almost perfect that year, you may recall. Well, not so much in his Week 15 matchup against the Jets. Brady could only muster three fantasy points in the cold New England wind, shattering many fantasy dreams that season in the process. Benching someone like Brady does run counter to our first rule, but if there's a sure-fire storm hitting at game time, you need to at least consider all of your options. 3) There's Always Next Year. If you come up short this weekend, sure it's going to sting. It may even ruin Christmas. But try to keep things in perspective and remember that it's just a game. Also, just making it to a fantasy title game is quite an accomplishment in itself. "If you ain't first, you're last" may be a funny line from Will Ferrell's "Talladega Nights," but when it comes to fantasy football, you're still better than 10 other teams in your league and you'll be even hungrier in 2013, which is just around the corner. But hey, you have not lost yet! Keep reading for some actual fantasy football advice that may help you bring home a fantasy title in 2012. Also, check out our complete rankings for Week 16. Tony Romo (DAL) vs. New Orleans -- Romo (yes, that Romo) has been rock solid of late (we know, right?), with 12 touchdown passes to three interceptions in his last six games. The Saints, outside of a major choke by Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman last weekend, are almost always extra-giving to the position, with eight quarterbacks having thrown for multiple touchdowns against them this season (second best fantasy quarterback matchup). Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Detroit -- Ryan is coming off an outstanding effort against the Jekyll-and-Hyde Giants, when he threw three touchdowns and completed 82 percent of his passes (23 for 28). His 142.6 quarterback rating against the G-Men was the second highest in his career. Detroit's defense is middle-of-the-road when it comes to fantasy, having surrendered six games of 20 or more points to quarterbacks this season. Cam Newton (CAR) vs. Oakland -- In Cam we trust. We can finally say that with a straight face. His numbers against the Chargers in Week 15 would have been even bigger if touchdown vulture Mike Tolbert hadn't swooped in for two scores, but you still have to be impressed with Newton's efficiency leading the Carolina offense to three first-quarter touchdowns. A Week 16 mismatch with Oakland should allow for a big-time performance for fantasy owners using him in a title game this weekend (eighth best fantasy quarterback matchup). Sam Bradford (STL) vs. Tampa Bay -- Many of his career-high 377 passing yards against the Vikings in Week 15 came in garbage time, with the Rams being blown out, but if you have quarterback issues this weekend, he'll likely be sitting on your wire, and there is not a better fantasy matchup for quarterbacks than the Buccaneers, who gave up 35 fantasy points to the equally shaky Nick Foles two weeks ago. Alfred Morris (WAS) vs. Philadelphia -- Morris managed but 76 yards on the ground in his first meeting with the Eagles. Ever since, he's averaged 16 fantasy points per game and the Eagles have coughed up rushing touchdowns in three straight games, yielding an average of 105 yards to running backs. DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. New Orleans -- Fantasy's sixth-best running back over the last three weeks gets the best running back matchup in the business for your championship game. Smile big and be glad you didn't drop him six weeks ago. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs. Cleveland -- With 24 or more touches in four straight games, expect another heavy workload against a Browns front that has allowed an average of 21 fantasy points the last three weeks. Stevan Ridley (NE) vs. Jacksonville -- Lack of ball security and a stout 49ers defense landed him in the fantasy doghouse last week, but the Patriots should be able to build a sizable lead against Jacksonville, and that would mean plenty of carries against a unit surrendering the second-most fantasy points on the ground this season. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) vs. Washington -- He saw three targets the last time these two teams met, but things have changed considerably since. He has drawn 22 targets in his last two games, good enough for 177 yards and one touchdown. An opposing team has failed to produce a 10-point fantasy receiver just twice this season against the Redskins, who are considered the sixth-best matchup for receivers. Danny Amendola (STL) vs. Tampa Bay -- He did more than fine in his return to action last week (6 rec., 58 yards, 1 TD) and came out no worse for wear. On deck is a dreamy matchup with the league's worst secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers through 15 games. Pierre Garcon (WAS) vs. Philadelphia -- Garcon is averaging 10 targets and 10 fantasy points over his last two games. You'd like to see Robert Griffin III throwing him the ball this week, and the chances of that are looking good, but he'll be a solid WR2 choice regardless as the Eagles give up the eighth-most points to wideouts. Miles Austin (DAL) vs. New Orleans -- Dez Bryant's broken finger made him a lot more popular with Romo last week, drawing a team high 10 looks. He'll be heavily involved again in Week 16, and that could mean big numbers against a terrible Saints secondary that has given up the third-most fantasy points to the position. Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. Oakland -- The Raiders are allowing the sixth-most points to the position (8.8 FPPG) and Olsen has reached the end zone in two of his last three games. Tony Scheffler (DET) vs. Atlanta -- He is worth a look if Brandon Pettigrew sits as Atlanta gives up the 10th most fantasy points to the middle of the field. Chicago vs. Arizona, Denver vs. Cleveland, New England vs. Jacksonville, San Diego vs. Jets Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Baltimore -- It's difficult to feel good about Manning after last week's two-point fantasy disaster. His quarterback rating of 38.7 was his lowest since 2007, and he has thrown at least two picks in three of his last five games. The Ravens limited his big brother to a 200-yard, one-TD performance last week and that kind of output has been typical against them this season (15.6 FPPG). Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. Arizona -- The Cardinals have allowed the lowest overall quarterback rating in the league, and are considered the second-worst matchup a quarterback can have, with opponents averaging 13 fantasy points a game. Colin Kaepernick (SF) vs. Seattle -- We picked on him last week and he wound up with four touchdowns playing on a rainy, hostile Foxboro stage on Sunday night. Seattle will be his biggest challenge yet, as they are the toughest matchup in the business, yielding three games of 20-plus fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. Atlanta -- If you survived his pathetic 24-of-50, three-interception statline last week, you'll likely be staying far away from him against the Falcons, who have allowed 15 fantasy points per game to the position this season and have held the likes of Drew Brees and Eli Manning to five total fantasy points over three games. Beanie Wells (ARZ) vs. Chicago -- Three touchdowns in the box score last week may entice you this week, but the odds he even scores one against the Bears are slim considering they have allowed just six all season (third-worst running back matchup). Trent Richardson (CLE) vs. Denver -- Averaging a paltry 3.25 yards per carry over his last six games, Richardson's nose for the end zone has kept him in the RB1 conversation. That trend has to continue to keep him relevant, because the Broncos have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, holding Doug Martin and Ray Rice to fewer than 10 fantasy points in two of their last three games. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) vs. Pittsburgh -- Green-Ellis managed 69 yards on 18 carries against the Steelers in Week 7 and overall, the Steelers are the fifth-worst fantasy matchup for running backs. Bryce Brown (PHI) vs. Washington -- After two straight lackluster outings, LeSean McCoy is back as the starting running back and the Redskins are no slouches at stopping the run, ranking as the sixth-best unit in the N.F.L. They have allowed three runners to eclipse the century mark in rushing yardage this season. Michael Crabtree (SF) vs. Seattle -- Crabtree has yet to reach the end zone in six career games against the Seahawks, who are tied with the Jets as the worst fantasy matchup for receivers (16 FPPG). Josh Gordon (CLE) vs. Denver -- Held to three catches for 27 yards last week against Washington, it gets much tougher this week as No. 1 wideouts are being held to 3.6 fantasy points per game by cornerback Champ Bailey over the last five weeks. Danario Alexander (SD) vs. Jets -- The last guy you want to see after laying a goose egg (against Carolina in Week 15) is the Jets' Antonio Cromartie, who has limited WR1 opponents to a 50-yard average over the last five weeks. The Jets are the worst matchup a fantasy receiver can have in 2012. Mike Wallace (PIT) vs. Cincinnati -- You can't bench Wallace the way he has been playing since Big Ben's return, but expectations should be tempered against the Bengals, who have allowed a receiver to reach double digits once over the last seven weeks. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) vs. Pittsburgh -- He totaled just 19 yards the last time he faced the Steelers, who are the fourth-worst matchup for guys like Gresham. Vernon Davis (SF) vs. Seattle -- Four catches for 29 yards in his last four games, and the matchup is as bad as it gets against Seattle (5 FPPG). Dallas vs. New Orleans, Detroit vs. Atlanta, San Francisco vs. Seattle, Philadelphia vs. Washington