This is neither an Arab spring nor Islamist winter Whether we are facing an Arab spring or an Islamic winter depends very much on Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi but also on how the international community treats him. The two invitations sent to Cairo, one to attend the Non-Aligned Movement conference in Tehran next month, the other to meet Barack Obama, symbolise the crossroads Egypt faces. The day that Egyptians marched on Tahrir Square last year our world split in two. On one side stood those who saw freedom and democracy taking over the Arab street, on the other those who looked on with suspicion, even derision, and who saw only the inevitable rise of Islamist extremists. Nowhere were these contrasting views so heartfelt and significant as in Israel. More than a year later, the story is not over but, with the election of Mr Morsi, I am confident in saying that neither the optimists nor pessimists were right. Yes, he was the candidate of an Islamist movement that espouses pre-modern and anti-liberal values. But Egypt's politics is too complex for us to define the new order simply as Islamist. None of this is to say that we, in Israel, can remain complacent about what is, after all, an upheaval in our most important neighbour. The deterioration of law and order in Sinai, where radical jihadist groups are taking root, is of utmost concern. Their aim is not only to attack Israel, but to push Egypt to direct confrontation with Israel. The results of Egypt's elections strengthen the most radical elements in the region. I am not encouraged by the invitation extended by Jordan's King Hussein to the leader of Hamas. Whether or not Islamist groups are impelled to moderate their positions depends to a great extent on the demands made of them by the international community in return for support for their countries. It is also clear that we cannot ignore another issue that Mr Morsi cited in his first speech. For years, the Palestinian issue has been a cloud over relations between Israel and the Arab world. I don't agree to this linkage but I cannot ignore it. While Arab leaders have seen potential benefits from peaceful relations with Israel, the masses have watched footage of the conflict. Israel has remained the enemy. Without strong Arab backing, it will be hard, if not impossible, for a Palestinian leader to reach peace with Israel. Here lies one of the most important tests of the new Arab leaders. Their support for pragmatic Palestinian camps is more timely than ever. The alternative, embracing Hamas - an organisation that does not recognise Israel and is not willing to endorse a permanent status agreement - will not lead to peace, but rather will harm the interests of everyone in the region. The struggle between Palestinian pragmatists and extremists is for us, in Israel, the choice between the hope of reaching a peace agreement or not. Will the values of the Arab awakening infuse the Palestinian question, too? Democracy is not only the right to vote, it is also about not resorting to violence in order to reach political goals and respecting agreements signed by former governments. In the past, we signed treaties with leaders but we did not, unfortunately, make peace with the peoples. This trend has to change. Of course, these momentous shifts mean Israel too will have to take decisions, some of them not easily digested by many Israelis. These include conducting negotiations with the Palestinians to reach an agreement, but hard decisions from all parties will serve our vital interests. The key to normalising relations with the Arab and Muslim world lies, of course, in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, as endorsed by the Arab League. At the heart of this is the promise that if Israel makes peace with the Palestinians, the Arab world will normalise relations with Israel. It has been 10 years since that initiative was first on the table. As a member of subsequent Israeli governments that debated the Arab proposal, I can say that not everything in it is palatable to Israel. But Israel has to welcome the offer of a regional accommodation. Nothing is more urgent than our need to solve our conflict with the Palestinians. Having led the Israeli negotiating team from 2007 to 2009, I believe a solution is possible. This is why I fail to understand both the optimists and the pessimists. While Israel is not a player in the events shaking the Arab world, together we can help shape the region's future Regardless of the choices Arab peoples make for themselves, even an Islamist winter may thaw into a promising spring. The writer is a former Israeli foreign minister and former leader of the Kadima party