The boys love going to Afghanistan, no matter what the public think This process will be repeated again and again as the Army shrinks to a size not seen since the Napoleonic Wars. By 2020, it will consist of 82,000 men and women, down by a fifth from today. Wembley Stadium could seat the lot, with 10,000 seats to spare. Of course, this reduction in manpower has been swathed in spin. Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, talks of a "more flexible and agile Army," while General Sir Peter Wall, Chief of the General Staff, assures us: "After the experiences of the past 10 years, there is unlikely to be much of a national appetite for protracted war" - as if wars are things chosen from menus. The process used has unintended consequences. Officers of lesser ability, known as the Third XI, who should be at greater risk of the sack, have volunteered in droves for service in Afghanistan, knowing that personnel "preparing for operations" are exempt from the cull. Because they are not so highly rated, they occupy less critical positions and can be more easily released for operations. Ironically, so-called First XI officers, who cannot be spared from their jobs, are more vulnerable in the medium term. "This makes for a toxic atmosphere," says the officer. We have another 12,000 redundancies to make and the Sword of Damocles is hanging over the heads of people who had thought they were First XI. Talented officers see the writing on the wall and are leaving voluntarily. Lt-Col Richard Williams, a former SAS CO, says the end of campaigning in Afghanistan is also a major factor in morale. "It is about that post-conflict dip," he says. Company commanders know they are not going to command their battalions on operations and think, 'What am I going to do for 10 years? Libya was proof that things can be done without large forces. If the Army does need to generate a big force, it must look to the Territorial Army. Currently 15,000-strong, it is expected to supply 30,000 reservists by 2020, a target most senior officers think laughable. The Army was able to field a 45,000-strong division for the liberation of Kuwait in 1991. The biggest-possible force in 2020 will be about 30,000. None of this matters, we are told, because the war of the future will be a cyber one, or fought with drones and other hi-tech machines. But the future rarely conforms to such predictions. Wary of controversy and the campaign for an independent Scotland, David Cameron has been anxious to avoid the extinction of regimental identities. Only one of the five under-recruited Scottish infantry battalions has been cut, and even that one not entirely. The 5th Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland (Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders) will survive as a ceremonial company. The pain has been much greater south of the border, where four infantry battalions will disappear. Such politicking adds to ill-feeling. "Military morale is measured in many ways," says Tim Ripley of Jane's Defence Review. For the ordinary soldiers and junior NCOs, the main driver is Afghanistan. The boys love going there, no matter what the public may think. Now they must look forward to a life of dull exercises on Salisbury Plain. Meanwhile, the officers see their professional futures disappearing down the drain. On top of that, school fees and other benefits are being chopped. You can gauge morale by how many officers are opting for redundancy. So far, more people have volunteered than have been forced out. That is a clear sign they think the Army has lost its way.