Economic Outlook: price pressure gauged Inflation has steadily become a sideline issue for global central bankers over recent months as growth concerns weigh heavily. Data released this week should confirm the trend of lower price pressures as weakening demand lowers energy costs. US consumer price figures, published on Tuesday, are likely to show annual inflation fell to a 17-month low of 1.6 per cent in June, held down by weaker oil and gas prices. Forecasts extrapolated from energy markets, meanwhile, suggest the annual rate could fall even more sharply in the second half. "Taking into account where gasoline futures are priced, headline CPI looks poised to come in below our 1.2 per cent call in the second half," says Michael Cloherty at RBC Capital Markets. "This would be substantially below the [Federal Reserve's] 2 per cent target and would likely make "deflation" part of its lexicon once again." Retail sales for June, published on Monday, are expected to remain subdued as petrol pump prices continued to decline in the face of slackening demand. A modest rise in vehicle sales, however, is seen lifting the headline number 0.2 per cent on the month after a decline of the same magnitude in May. Against this backdrop, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday delivers his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress and investors will be looking for clearer signals than have hitherto been given that the central bank could yet pull the QE3 trigger. Analysts believe he will be quizzed on why the Fed is not doing more to stimulate growth. "His responses could give financial markets some clues about the likelihood of further Fed action, such as quantitative easing, later this year," says Madhur Jha at HSBC. On Wednesday the Bank of England publishes the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, at which it raised its asset purchases by £50bn to £375bn. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee are expected to have voted for further QE as economic conditions worsened. The UK labour market appears to be improving modestly, however, and the claimant count in June is expected to still be at 4.9 per cent. The International Labour Organisation's jobless rate is forecast to have stayed at 8.2 per cent from March to May. UK inflation is forecast to have remained at an annual rate of 2.8 per cent in June as retailers cashed in on the Queen's diamond jubilee celebrations amid bad weather. Inflation data are published on Tuesday, while retail sales numbers are out on Thursday. In the eurozone on Monday, consumer prices are expected to reveal a similar stalling in inflation, with the annual rate holding at 2.4 per cent. The region's sovereign debt crisis is beginning to hamper sentiment in Germany severely, and the latest ZEW survey of economic sentiment on Tuesday is expected to reflect this. Back in the US, the two keenly watched industrial indicators - the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys - are forecast to show that manufacturing conditions remain tough. Tuesday's industrial production figures are expected to reveal a 0.4 per cent increase following the 0.1 per cent decline in May.