Deutsche Post: Orient express - FT.com Deutsche Post shares have been moving faster than an express package. The stock, which merely tracked the Euro Stoxx index for much of the past five years, began to fly last autumn. Today, the shares are up almost 60 per cent on early-October levels. Solid results have helped, with the German-based mail arm holding steady as internet shopping drives parcel business, and the DHL express and logistics division delivering double-digit growth rates. Company forecasts have also been robust: group earnings before tax and interest are expected to reach €2.5bn-€2.6bn in 2012, and €3.4bn-€3.6bn by 2015. Last year, they were €2.4bn. The question for investors is how much of this optimism is now in the price - and what the downside risks may be. Essentially, Deutsche Post is a group of two halves. The German mail division still accounts for a quarter of revenues and has been a weak spot in the past. Europe's malaise could cast a cloud over volume estimates. But, that said, ebit here has stabilised at over €1bn and the company believes that with more automation - and investment - this level can at least be maintained. The DHL business is more exciting, posting ebit of €1.7bn last year, which is projected to reach €2.7bn-€2.9bn by 2015. On the plus side, DHL is more exposed to Asia-Pacific than rivals such as UPS and FedEx. With new hubs in Shanghai and Hong Kong opening within days, it suggests that a third of revenues could come from this region by 2017 compared with a fifth today. On the minus, DHL's volumes tend to mirror trends in global trade - so weakness there could hurt. The shares - 30 per cent of which are held by the German government - are now on a forward multiple of 11.5 times, still cheaper than peers" but pricier than last autumn. They look solid enough medium-term, but perhaps more vulnerable to any short-term disappointments.