Dulles poised for second latest first freeze on record while D.C."s may arrive earlier than average Forecast lows for tomorrow morning from last night's 4km NAM weather model. Last week I talked about how a freeze was coming. Freeze warnings flew west of I-95. Then it was oddly mild during the night in question and only a handful of locations in the region dipped to the 32-degree mark. With chilled air now filtering back into the area following the first of several cold fronts to pass in the next week, it's time to think freeze again. Eventually we head into atypical cold next week, and that really ratchets up the odds of a freeze region-wide. At Dulles, where we've now surpassed the date of all prior first freezes except for the latest on record, it appears to be on its way tomorrow morning - placing 2014 in second place. Further east, it could still be a little while, though that's not too unusual either. The Dulles record First winter freeze by year at D.C. and Dulles. Dashed lines are linear trends. Ian Livingston and Justin Grieser D.C. and Baltimore records go back to the early 1870s, with the latest first freeze at both locations during December. Dulles has only been around since 1963, but in the 51 years prior to this one there is only one that has seen its first freeze this late. The record holder for the latest first freeze at Dulles is November 11, 2005. Despite the relatively short record period there, even coming in second is not quite something to sneeze at since it's less than a 2 percent historical chance. If for some reason Dulles were to miss the freezing mark Saturday morning, the 2005 record would more than likely be broken by several days. However, there is more agreement this go than last week that we'll hit the magic number there. They've also hit 33 on three occasions, the first back on October 5. D.C. might be early? GFS forecast lows for Saturday, November 15. There may be opportunities for widespread freeze prior depending on how the pattern shapes up. Owing to the strongly urban influenced micro-climate of the official station for D.C. (National Airport), the city's - north and west parts are earlier - average first freeze doesn't come along until November 18. That's still a good 10+ days off. In the long-term historical record for D.C. that dates back to 1872, a mid-November freeze is quite run of the mill. In the current climate, it's also squarely average. Still, this season has the potential to be one of the earliest in recent years. Perhaps interestingly, given that the pattern upcoming next week has been likened to the cold shots we saw last winter, the 2013 first freeze at D.C. was also a little early, falling on November 13. Prior to that, we'd need to go back to 2006 to see a freeze this early. Just since 2000, D.C. has seen four years hold out until December, including the record latest December 22 in 2001. Certainly doubtful we make it that far this year. A freeze-free island In last week's look at the typical first freeze, I showed a map of 2014′s first freeze dates across the country and noted that cold air was plunging south, poised to fill up more of the map. It surely did that (check out all the brown!). CONUS first freeze dates as of November 6. Midwest Regional Climate Center When the clock started to tick on Dulles's record-threatening push, Brian Brettschneider, who runs a neat U.S. climate blog, sent us a map of when the average first freeze comes along at stations across the country. As you can see below in that map, most of the places that would expect a freeze by now have seen one, and some spots in the Southeast, in particular, have picked up early freezes. That whacky early-season snowstorm. First freeze average dates across the United States. Note: highlighted stations had freezes by October 23, when the map was shared with us. Brian Brettschneider So, yeah, it may be taking its time locally in a few spots, but that first freeze is coming.