NAPLAN results reliable indicator of VCE results for students Students starting VCE can look back to their NAPLAN results for a prediction about their chances of gaining entry to university, research shows. A new study by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has found that NAPLAN results for year 9 students provided a strong indication of how they would perform in VCE. The report, by Moshe Justman and Brendan Houng, showed that students' socio-economic status also substantially influenced their final results. Professor Justman said a student's background "amplifies" the effect of NAPLAN as a predictor of ATAR scores, making it difficult for students from poor backgrounds to overcome educational setbacks. He said academically weak students from poor backgrounds had less than a 5 per cent chance of gaining an ATAR of 50 or higher. But well-off students with similar year 9 results had more than a 25 per cent chance of attaining an ATAR of 50 and above. "Based on NAPLAN results, teachers, parents and the students themselves can recognise the level of effort that will be needed for them to achieve access to different university programs and pursue a chosen career path," he said. Professor Justman said the study showed that students' results were not "preordained at the individual level." But the NAPLAN scores could help students realise what was required for them to gain entry to their preferred courses. The study shows a student in the bottom SES quartile with low NAPLAN scores had less than a 1 per cent chance of achieving an ATAR of 70. But a student from the top SES quartile with the same NAPLAN scores had a 13.5 per cent chance of success. Professor Justman said previous research had shown that home environment and socio-economic status did have an impact on educational achievement. But this study gave a "precise measurement." He said socio-economic status made the biggest difference for students with mid-range NAPLAN results in the study. "If you're a very good or very weak student the socio-economic background doesn't make that much of a difference," he said. If you're a very weak student you're probably not going to go to university even if you're from an advantaged background. But for people in the middle the background makes a difference. The Victorian Education Department commissioned the study. The researchers used data from more than 65,000 year 9 students in Victoria in 2008 and then followed up on their VCE performance in 2011. However, about 37 per cent of the students did not appear in the year 12 data and were regarded as having dropped out of school for the purpose of the study. Professor Justman said he hoped his research would help school systems to develop strategies to narrow the impact of socio-economic background on education. "These sorts of measurements should be done routinely," he said. This week more than 43,000 students sat the VCE English exam. The exam period runs until November 19. For more education stories visit facebook.com/theageeducation