Kevin Rudd plots two-stage comeback to regain old job But Mr Rudd, who has yet to formally declare a challenge, is believed to be planning a leadership battle based on Paul Keating's successful ousting of prime minister Bob Hawke in 1991. Under this strategy, Mr Rudd would lose the ballot on Monday and sit on the backbench, plotting his return. Norman Abjorensen, a political analyst from the Australian National University, said the malaise could continue well beyond Monday and Australia was immersed in "choppy political waters." The most likely scenario, he said, is that Mr Rudd will lose the ballot on Monday and then muster his troops from the backbench. "Rudd would have left the ministry, so he would not be saddled with ministerial duties," Dr Abjorensen told the Daily Telegraph. He has all the time in the world to lobby and persuade. That would be the worst outcome - everybody would be looking over their shoulders ... How much can he ruin the PM? That remains to be seen. Mr Rudd is believed to presently have at least 30 votes in the 103-member caucus, though the numbers are fluid. A victory for Mr Rudd would be likely to lead to an early election because he is not assured of support from the independent MPs who hold the balance of power. One independent, Tony Windsor, has already stated that if Mr Rudd wins "all bets are off." According to Dr Abjorensen, Mr Rudd would need about 35 votes or more to gain a platform for a further attempt. "If Rudd challenged and was humiliated by the margin of his defeat, he would be consigned to oblivion," he said. If he could only muster 20 votes, he would be written off.