Hugo Chávez: The Venezuelan patient LITTLE more than seven months before he is due to face a presidential election, Hugo Chávez is to undergo a third operation for the cancer that was diagnosed last June. Following a swirl of rumours over carnival weekend, Venezuela's president himself confirmed on February 21st that a "small lesion" had been detected during tests carried out days earlier during a secret trip to Cuba. This was "very likely" to prove malignant, though Mr Chávez insisted there was no metastasis. As usual, facts about the president's health are scarce. Venezuelans have never been told the details of the "baseball-sized tumour" extracted from his pelvis last year; none of his doctors has spoken to the media. But four rounds of chemotherapy appear not to have eradicated the cancer. The surgery in Cuba, due to take place within days, should be "less complicated" this time, Mr Chávez said. But clearly he faces a period of convalescence, possibly followed by radiation therapy. This would make campaigning difficult. Mr Chávez's public image is that of a strongman; now he risks looking weak. Faction-fighting within his regime is likely to intensify. The military and civilian wings of the ruling United Socialist Party are held together only by the president's own personality, and no potential successor appears to command broad support. Mr Chávez's medical setback may add to the momentum of Henrique Capriles, the candidate of the opposition Democratic Unity coalition (MUD). On February 12th he easily won a primary election in which almost 3m (out of a total electorate of 18.3m) turned out to vote. After 13 years in power, amid rampant crime, high inflation and shortages of housing and basic goods, the president is vulnerable. Mr Capriles's victory prompted Mr Chávez to shower insults on him, in a series of lengthy appearances which all radio and television channels were required to broadcast. But the president remains popular with millions of poorer Venezuelans. The rising world oil price brought a return to economic growth in Venezuela in 2011 after two years of recession. Armed with extra revenue from oil, Mr Chávez has launched a new non-contributory pension and child benefit, costing a total of $2.3 billion a year. He has also begun crash programmes to build houses and create jobs. Nor is Mr Chávez's continued ill health necessarily good for the MUD. News of his cancer last year prompted a sympathy boost in the president's opinion-poll ratings. That may now be repeated, though on a smaller scale. Opposition politicians know from bitter experience that fighting an election that focuses on the figure of the president is a losing proposition. Mr Capriles may find it harder to centre the campaign on the economy and governance. Were Mr Chávez to die, or be incapacitated, the resulting turmoil might derail the election altogether. The constitution calls for the vice-president to take over, but that post is in the president's gift. The incumbent, Elías Jaua, has been told he is to be replaced, but no successor has been named. In Venezuela such power vacuums have often been filled by the army.