Syria: Russia's risky calculation to hang on to an old island of Soviet influence Russia faced what Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, called a "hysterical" reaction when it vetoed a resolution that would have urged President Bashar al-Assad to step down. But why is the Kremlin willing to bear such criticism for the sake of an alliance with a relatively small and poor country? Part of the explanation lies in economic interest: Russia values its standing as the biggest supplier of weapons to Syria's armed forces, with outstanding export contracts believed to be worth £2.5 billion. Russian warships also dock at the Syrian port of Tartous, which serves as the country's last military base outside the old Soviet countries. Yet these are only the visible symbols of a deeper calculation. Vladimir Putin, who will return as Russia's president next month, is determined to restore his country's global standing. That ambition begins with holding on to every last island of influence inherited from the Soviet Union. These enclaves have been disappearing fast, symbolised by the fact that three former Soviet republics - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - are now members of Nato. Russia interpreted the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the overthrow of Col Muammar Gaddafi in Libya as being part of a dangerous plan to draw countries into the Western orbit, by force if necessary. The Kremlin is determined to ensure that Syria does not follow suit. "This is not about Assad the man, this is about Syria the country," said Asher Susser, from the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University. The Russians do not have a base of influence in the region that compares with Syria. It's an asset and they don't want to lose it. However, the Kremlin is also taking a gamble: if Mr Assad is overthrown, Russia will risk losing any influence in the Syria that emerges from his shadow. Russia probably wants to adopt a more subtle strategy, shaping events inside Syria and managing any transition if the regime must fall. But Moscow is running risks at least as great as its Western rivals.