Swing State Economies: Weak but Improving February 10, 2012, 7:30 am Ryan Avent has an eye-opening post on The Economist's Free Exchange blog, noting that the economy is improving more rapidly in swing states than in the rest of the country. Swing state economies remain weaker than the national economy, as The Times and others have noted. But most political scientists and political experts believe that the economy's direction matters more than its level. So the weakness in the swing states may not end up helping the Republicans as much as seems at first glance - so long as the economy keeps improving, which is no sure thing. Mr. Avent writes: Manufacturing states, which suffered very heavily in the downturn but bounced back relatively quickly, feature prominently on the list. And it's interesting that some of the largest and most electorally important swing states - including Ohio and Florida - have seen large drops in the unemployment rate both over all and in just the past 12 months. That's important; the political science literature suggests that it is the change in key economic variables in the 9 to 12 months prior to an election that is most impactful. As the chart with the post makes clear, the economy is improving in the Midwest (including Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin), Virginia and North Carolina. Things aren't much better in the Sun Belt (including Florida, Nevada and New Mexico), which continues to suffer from the housing bust. In a separate post, at The Atlantic, Derek Thompson notes that the swing-state improvement may not enormously help President Obama, because voters makes judgements on the national economy. The larger point is that swing-state economies may not be the drag on Mr. Obama's campaign that their unemployment rates, taken in isolation, suggest.