Debt crisis: as it happened 20.36 Gold is on the rise thanks to disapointing eurozone growth forecasts emerging today. It's currently up near $1,786.30 as investors seek out a safe haven. 20.31 Brendan O'Neill, editor of Spiked, has written a blog post today on the anti-capitalist Occupy London protest, which he says has degenerated into a magnet for the mentally unsound. What started life as a middle-class shantytown packed with self-righteous haters of the rich - an annoying spectacle, yes, but hardly the end of world - has in recent weeks descended into something far more degenerate. Occupy London is now effectively a holding camp for the mentally ill, a space where the psychologically afflicted and deeply troubled can gather to eat, drink and be un-merry. It is no accident that this political project has turned into a kind of massive AA meeting. Indeed, it was the failure of the original occupiers to say what their camp was for, their resolute refusal to outline their aims or list their goals, which helped turn their tent city into a relativistic, non-judgemental gathering point for any Tom, Dick or Harry looking for some purpose in life or just a place to hang out and eat/drink. 20.08 This is one way to encourage lending: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has renewed threats to nationalise banks that don't hit agriculture lending quotas. 19.35 Chuka Umunna has written a comment piece today on what we can learn from Germany if we want the UK to grow: GDP in Germany is now 0.5pc above its pre-crisis peak, while here in the UK we are still 3.8pc below it. 18.58 Epikaira magazine has conducted a poll among the Greek public on their feelings toward Germany. They weren't good. Many see harsh austerity measures demanded by Berlin as a cause of high unemployment and social problems in Greece. Some 41pc said they first thought of anger, indignation or fury, while 30pc went with disappointment, fear and revulsion. Positive sentiments made up just 8.6pc of replies. A burning German flag outside the Greek Parliament during a 24-hour strike in February. 18.23 An interesting blog post from Jeremy Warner here on the discovery of a full transcript of the Bretton Woods conference, the 1944 meeting that established the foundations for the international monetary system. As he points out, many of the problems discussed then still remain: It was at Bretton Woods that Keynes identified one of the key problems at the heart of international economics - that imbalances in trade are next to impossible to resolve in a fixed exchange rate system without surplus countries accepting that they have as much of an obligation to do something about them as the offending deficit countries. As the eurozone is demonstrating all over again, the lessons have plainly not be learned. 18.09 More from Marioi Draghi now, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal Q&A. It starts off by asking Draghi what inning we are in with Greece, a baseball reference that doesn't register with the ECB head... I don't know baseball. But if we didn't have that package finalized, there would be no game. So this could be the beginning of a new world for Greece where the pending financing problems have been addressed. The number of people, who favour default, inflation or even exit from the euro doesn't seem to be prevalent in Greece. 17.38 Mario Draghi has been busy giving interviews this week - he also spoke to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, saying that Greece's compliance with its bailout agreement must be "flawless" to avoid worse trouble. The key to controlling risks lies with the implementation of the program, which has to be flawless. 17.24 Athens and Berlin have "very good" cooperation, which helped ease through the new bailout, according to government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis, speaking to AFP: We have a very, very good cooperation with the German government and it has contributed a lot in finalising the accord. Greece relies on this cooperation and hopes this will be borne out by the vote of the German parliament. 17.06 Draghi goes on to say that he had to be very careful about announcing the end of the ECB's bond buying scheme as the markets are still vulnerable. 17.04 Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, has given the Wall Street Journal an interview, where he said that: "it's hard to say if the crisis is over": The recovery is proceeding very slowly and remains subject of downside risks. I was surprised too that there was no elation after the approval of the package and this probably means that markets want to see the implementation of the policy measures. 16.59 Time for a graph showing European market performance over the last few weeks. 16.41 The European markets have closed for the day, with mixed results. A drop in eurozone growth figures have subdued sentiment today, but confidence figures from Germany showed that there are pockets deserving of optimism. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.38pc, the DAX lost 0.5pc and the CAC lost a negligible 0.01pc. 16.24 The Center for Economic and Policy Research has put out a new paper that suggests Greece should consider an exit from the eurozone (which we heard yesterday has been dubbed a Grexit in some circles...). Mark Weisbrot, CEPR co-director and lead author of the paper, said: The IMF has consistently underestimated the depth of the Greek recession. At some point, it becomes rational for Greeks to ask, is the euro worth this kind of punishment? 16.02 This picture shows Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos during today's parliamentary debate on the debt write-down legislation. The room wasn't exactly filled to capacity. 15.55 As some are pointing out, this voluntary haircut for Greek bondholders is only voluntary so long as they agree to it... 15.28 The new law is a key piece of the Greek plan and will help push through €107bn in debt writedowns. The Government hopes that 66pc of private creditors will agree to the haircut, allowing Athens to impose a Collective Action Clause to force the rest to follow. AFP points out that the Parliamentary vote was not in doubt as the two coalition government partners, the Socialists in PASOK and the conservative New Democracy party, have 193 of 300 seats in parliament. Three leftist parties as well as the extreme right opposed the bill, saying it would "be profitable for banks and monopolies and not the population," according to communist deputy Thanassis Pafilis. 15.21 The Greek Parliament has just passed a law on the debt swap with private bondholders. 15.15 Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager says the Greek rescue package doesn't guarantee a solution to the crisis: The package is no guarantee that the problems in Greece will be solved. Greece will have to take extensive measures and show that it implements the necessary reforms. By the way, it is uncertain when Greece will again get market access, making it therefore impossible to rule out that Greece needs extra public sector support, as I have discussed earlier in Dutch parliament. 15.07 Cameron announces that something called the Open Business Forum will be set up, chaired by Sir Philip Green, to look at "how we can make business more transparent." 15.01 Cameron's speech is part of an event organised by the Business in the Community charity. He's saying that business must take more responsibility for social action, and that he's sick of "snobbish attitudes" that the state should be in charge of tackling poverty, not companies: There are parts of our society that business can reach that the state just can't. Think of what the Big Issue has done to give dignity to homeless people... they're changing the way that people think that Government simply cannot do on its own. 14.55 David Cameron is speaking from North London at the moment, claiming that business is the best way to tackle poverty in the UK: We have in this country a great history of businesses doing good. But it does take dedicated champions like His Royal Highness (Prince Charles)... to keep this cause relevant and real. In recent months we've heard some dangerous rhetoric... that people in business are out for themselves. I think we need to fight this mood with everyhting we've got. Business is not just about making money... it is also the most powerful force for social progress that the world has ever known. Those of us who believe in business, in markets, in enterprise, need to come together and prive the sceptics wrong. The Dow Jones industrial average opened down 0.2pc at 12,914.00, while the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.19pc to 1,355.14. 14.06 Federal Reserve board member Richard Fisher has just been speaking to CNBC. He said that "things are getting better, not worse" for the US economy, but adds that the unemployment rate, at 8.3pc, is still too high. Mr Fisher added that another round of money printing would be unnecessary in his opinion and labelled calls for QE3 from Wall Street "wishful thinking." Our job is not to prop up the Street We are working on the real economy. 13.48 Commenting on the figures, Jacob Oubina, an economist at RBC Capital markets, said: It was bang on expectations when you consider that the previous week was revised slightly higher. At this point I think it's still too early to tell whether the weather had an effect on claims this year or whether the number of jobless claims has actually shifted lower. Normally, construction workers file unemployment claims at the beginning of December. What you typically see in March is construction workers coming back on into jobs. Continuing claims are consistently heading lower but again I think that's more a function of exhaustion of benefits rather than any new improvement. Hundreds of people wait in line to get into a job fair in San Mateo, California (Photo: AP) 13.41 The less volatile four-week average also fell to 359,000, according to the US Labor Department. 13.35 On that note, here's another statistic for you. The number of Americans claiming weekly unemployment benefits remained unchanged last week, at 351,000. This compares with a forecast of 355,000 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and represents a near four-year low. 13.11 Mr Lewis goes on to explore the Bank of England's own convenient use of statistics and surveys (you can read the full note here), and highlights the main problem with them: One problem with all business surveys is what might be termed "survivor bias." Responses are collected only from companies that survive, that is, the relatively successful ones, not from those that fail. Survey compilers try to control for this possible distortion in their results but can never be completely sure how well they succeed. Given the logistical challenge of conducting a survey, a greater proportion of large-company activity is likely to be surveyed than that of small and medium-sized companies. That may not always matter. The business conditions facing large and smaller companies may be similar for much of the time. However, it would be reasonable to suppose that, at present, company size is conferring a significant competitive advantage. After all, large companies are enjoying ready access to sources of capital, partly as a result of the Bank of England's "quantitative easing," whereas smaller companies remain severely credit-constrained. Consequently, the numerical indices constructed out of business survey responses seem likely to be overstating the strength in economic activity measurable by GDP. 12.55 Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Stephen Lewis at Monument Securities examines two surveys which tell completely different stories about what's going on in Germany at the moment. He compares this morning's German business confidence survey (see 09.14), which showed sentiment rising, with yesterday's "flash" Markit purchasing managers" composite index (PMI), which fell to 51.7 from 52.9 in January (Markit PMIs measure changes in business activity in various sectors). So why the conflicting data? Mr Lewis explains: In truth, it is not unusual for the results from these surveys to diverge over the short run. There are differences in coverage. The IFO seeks responses from companies operating in manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade, whereas the Markit composite measure draws on a sample-population of companies in manufacturing and certain service sectors. But this does not fully account for the differences in results. For the current month, the indices for manufacturing alone, which ought to relate to coterminous categories, also moved in opposite directions, with the IFO measure rising and the PMI falling. Over the longer term, it is true, the two surveys tell broadly similar stories but, on those occasions when they give conflicting signals, that is no help in deciding which of them is providing a reliable indication of the trend in the economy. 12.22 Following the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) results announced this morning (see 07.33), angry customers have been lining up outside branches across the country to protest against the hefty bonuses paid out to the state-owned bank's employees. Ex-customer Caroline Coombs, who closed her RBS account today, said: I decided to leave RBS because I don't want to save with a bank that thinks it is acceptable to blow millions of pounds on egos. Thanks to the Move Your Money UK, I have found a bank that has a social conscience and will not play with money as if it were money on a Monopoly board. The decline of the worlds finances is not a game. A man poses outside a London branch of Natwest (Photo: Move your Money) Today's protests were organised by Move Your Money, a campaign that encourages people to switch from the "big four" bank to smaller credit unions and building societies. 12.01 Time for a quick market update. Here's Rachel Cooper with the latest on the FTSE 100: That helped prop up a rather anaemic FTSE 100, which managed to rise only 13 points to 5,929, paring gains made in early morning trading. 11.33 Mr Waterfield is taking a break from his Brussels duties and is in Berlin tonight taking part a debate entitled "Europe without Europeans." The debate will be joined by WSJ's Heard on the Street editor Simon Nixon among others. Drop in if you're around. It promises to be a lively debate. 11.22 More analysis from Bruno on the EC's latest growth forecasts: The forecasts out today expose the holes in the second Greek bailout. That €130 billion package, combined with savage austerity and a €100billion haircut for banks, depends on the success of an eight year forecast of the Greek economy - including the prediction that growth will return to Greece in 2014. But today, the European Commission has just admitted that its forecast, made only last November, for the Greek economy in 2012 is substantially wrong. "In 2012, real output is expected to shrink further, by 4.3% - markedly lower than forecast in the autumn and with substantial downside risks," says today's forecast. So, the second Greek bailout and the austerity programme is based on some very dodgy economic arithmetic, if as it appears, commission predictions have a shelf life of three months rather than eight years. The EU has recreated the 2+2=5 world of Stalinist maths, where figures and statistics are twisted to meet the targets, the kind of sums that only add up for bureaucrats. 11.00 The EC describes Greece's labour market as "undergoing a painful adjustment process." It adds: In 2012, real output is expected to shrink further, by 4.3% - markedly lower than forecast in the autumn and with substantial downside risks - mirrored by very low consumer and business confidence. Apart from the weakening external demand, domestic demand is set to contract given the expected acceleration of the labour market adjustment, with wage cuts in the private sector. 10.50 Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield has been flicking through the 48 page document. Some (quite shocking) observations: Unemployment in Spain, at nearly 23pc, is the highest in the industrialised world (Photo: AFP) 10.38 On the back of our story this morning, a journalist asks Mr Rehn if Spain will be given more time to cut its deficit. In November, the EC said it expected Spain to grow 0.7pc in 2012. This has been revised to a 1pc contraction. Mr Rehn says the EC forecast does not include Spain's latest belt-tightening measures, adding that any decision on Spain will only be taken when it has "full information." Mr Rehn then praises Italy for its determination to tackle high debt levels. 10.29 Mr Rehn says that it is important that Europe continues to take "decisive action" to keep the recovery on track. He says that the next weeks and months are critical for Greece and that significant progress has been made to reinforce the firewall against contagion in the sovereign debt markets. The recapitalisation of the banks is well underway, with funding conditions eased mostly thanks to the LTRO conducted last December by the ECB. He adds that structural reforms to promote growth are also underway. 10.26 Here's a quick look at the EC's interim forecast, and how it compares with its previous one: 10.11 Mr Rehn expects a mild eurozone recession, though he says that there have been "signs of stabilisation, especially in the more recent period." 10.10 Monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn is holding a press conference on the new growth forecasts. Watch it here. 10.07 No change for the UK though. Growth is set to come in at 0.6pc in 2012, the same as Germany, which has had its growth forecast cut from 0.8pc. The European Commission's economic growth forecasts are out. Zero growth is now forecast across the EU in 2012. This compares with a forecast of 0.6pc growth in its previous estimate last November. 09.56 European markets have been trading for the best part of two hours. The FTSE 100 in London is up 0.55pc at 5,949.19, while the CAC 40 in Paris is up 0.55pc 3,466.50, and Frankfurt's DAX 30 is up 0.72pc at 6,893.13. 09.44 The troika (made up of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Union) said that if this "tailored downside scenario" were to become reality, Greece might need €245bn to fund itself to 2020, nearly double the €130bn bailout agreed this week. Read the full troika document here. 09.34 Meanwhile, Citigroup has released its own growth forecasts this morning, and it doesn't look good for Greece. Here's its verdict on the country's latest bailout package: we do not believe this package will succeed in its stated aim of returning Greece to a 120% debt/GDP ratio in 2020. We forecast a further prolonged economic depression plus a sizeable shortfall in privatization revenues that (with current plans) would leave the debt/GDP ratio at about 160-170% in 2020, similar to the Troika's "tailored downside scenario." Further debt restructuring is likely Greece's sovereign debt rating is likely to be downgraded near term and we expect a series of further downgrades among advanced economies over the next 2-3 years. A protester waves a Greek flag in front of the parliament during a protest in Athens on Wednesday (Photo: AFP) 09.24 Economic growth forecasts for the eurozone will be released by the European Commission at 10am (GMT). 09.15 Christian Melzer, an economist at DekaBank, told Bloomberg: The outlook for the German economy has significantly brightened over the last few weeks We can now thoroughly imagine the scenario that we won't see a technical recession. 09.14 German business confidence is up for the fourth month in a row, according to a closely-watched survey. The index, which is based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 109.6 in February from 108.3 in January. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted an increase to 108.8. 08.46 Elsewhere, Nicolas Sarkozy's re-election campaign is in full flow. And the current French President, who recently joined Twitter, released a campaign playlist last night. Songs include Elvis Presley's Love Me Tender, and L'amoureuse, sung by none other than his wife, Carla Bruni. 08.40 Back to the eurozone, where Spain has appealed to Brussels for softer deficit-reduction targets, raising fears that Europe's rescue strategies are unworkable in the bigger eurozone economies and not just Greece. Prime minister Mariano Rajoy has reportedly asked European officials to raise Spain's debt reduction target to 5pc, claiming that reducing it to 4.4pc will be impossible... Spain's finance minister Luis de Guindos told reporters that his country's request to lift its debt targets would not stand out as unusual because there would be a "general reconsideration of targets across the whole of the EU." 08.29 RBS isn't the only bank to report losses on its holding of Greek debt today. Dexia, the troubled Belgian bank which was nationalised last year, said today that it took a hit of €3.4bn on its Greek bonds, while French bank Credit Agricole took a €220m charge. 08.20 The Group holds around £1.45bn of Greek government bonds, and suffered nearly as much in losses this year as a result of the country's ongoing woes. In its eight-part (!) set of results, RBS said: The Group has reduced its effective exposure to Greece and continues to actively manage its exposure to the country, in line with the de-risking strategy that has been in place since early 2010. Much of the remaining exposure is collateralised or guaranteed. 08.05 Follow Harry Wilson on Twitter for more RBS-related news. 07.51 He also said that he was brought in to "defuse the largest balance sheet timebomb ever assembled in history," and suggested that the heavy losses actually reflected the "progress" the bank's bomb squad had made this year.