Wild-Card Games: What the Film Says Andy Benoit, who has been contributing weekly film reviews this season, trains his eye on the wild-card matchups: Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ Giants (9-7) Falcons O vs. Giants D Expect the Falcons to do what the Cowboys should have done Sunday night: control the tempo with no-huddle and mitigate the pass rush with quick-hitting three-and five-step drops. Atlanta's offensive line is not athletic enough to sustain protection against Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. But at the same time, the Giants" secondary is not sound enough to contain both Roddy White and Julio Jones (cornerback Corey Webster can only defend one of those guys). If the Giants stay in their base defensive personnel, the Falcons will dink and dunk to Tony Gonzalez; if the Giants use their big nickel personnel (with safety Antrel Rolle as the third linebacker/slot corner), the Falcons will turn to Michael Turner and their power run game. Advantage: Falcons Giants O vs. Falcons D The immediate assumption is that the defense must pressure Eli Manning. But Manning, with his subtle pocket mobility, mastery of Kevin Gilbride's system and strong, accurate and flexible arm, is simply too good to beat. You're better off beating his weapons. The Redskins stymied the Giant offense by stuffing the wide receivers. Washington played over-under double coverage against the wideouts outside and correctly bet that the Giants would not have the patience to run their passing attack through their tight ends and running backs inside. The Redskins were able to take this double-coverage approach because they could muster a respectable pass rush with just four players. The Falcons, with star rusher John Abraham, can too. They're not much of a blitzing team, anyway. If they do bring extra pressure, it will probably be in the form of a zone blitz with strong safety William Moore involved. The Giants know this, though, and will have a one-on-one matchup for Victor Cruz built in as a response. And the Falcons know that the Giants know this. Even if Mike Smith and coordinator Brian VanGorder can employ crafty double coverage tactics, the Giants want this game to come down to their receivers against the Falcons" defensive backs. The running backs vs. linebackers battle is one the Giants would lose - whether it's on the ground or in the screen game. Curtis Lofton and especially Sean Weatherspoon are simply too sharp mentally and too adept in space. Advantage: push Pick: Falcons 24-21 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) @ Houston Texans (10-6) Bengals O vs. Texans D The Bengals" power run game, which features Cedric Benson and a meaty five-or-sometimes-six-man offensive line, struggles a bit against fast defensive front sevens. Benson has underrated lateral agility and short-area quickness, but he lacks the initial burst to explode into cuts early in the run. Most of his damage is done on his third or fourth step. So where the play appears to be going is often where the play is going. A fast defense does not have to worry much about overpursuing. In this sense, the Texans" front seven - maybe the fastest in the league - matches up well. The last time these two teams met, Cincy rushed for just 101 yards on 29 carries and was unable to protect a late lead with their ground game. Andy Dalton is going to have to connect on a few more big throws than he has lately. The passing game runs through A.J. Green's acrobatic downfield abilities. Fittingly, the Texans" pass defense runs through the solo-coverage prowess of ex-Bengal Johnathan Joseph, a superb deep ball defender who held Green to under 60 yards receiving in Week 14. Advantage: Texans Texans O vs. Bengals D The Bengals have one of the league's stingiest run defenses, but they gave up a few big plays to zone-run teams down the stretch. The Texans, with their stretch handoff, cohesive front five and backfield duo of star Arian Foster and bruiser Ben Tate, are the best zone-running team in football (and best overall running team in football, for that mater). On the big runs the Bengals gave up, a lead-blocker often contacted the playside linebacker cleanly. Veteran fullback Lawrence Vickers could be the key component Saturday. In the Week 14 matchup, Gary Kubiak put a lot of trust in T.J. Yates. The fifth-round rookie responded by leading a game-winning touchdown drive in the closing seconds. Yates has since struggled a bit with turnovers, and the Bengals might be more inclined to attack him with third-level blitzers to see how he responds. At least he'll have his full slate of receiving weapons. Pick: Texans 27-20 Detroit Lions (10-6) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3) Lions O vs. Saints D The Lions must have the mind-set that it will take 40 points for them to win. Deep passes should be commonplace. It helps that a majority of this offense operates out of the shotgun; that creates spacing that naturally takes some of the sting off Gregg Williams's aggressive six-man blitzes. Williams loves to build his pressure packages around strong safety Roman Harper; the Lions can make the Saints pay for this by keeping both tight ends - Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler - on the field and aligned in different spots throughout the game. Don't expect a lot of presnap motion, though, as Scott Linehan will want Matthew Stafford to get a clear presnap look at the Saints" alignment. Motion makes the defense move (the Saints will be moving plenty before the snap as it is). As important as Pettigrew and Scheffler might be, they're both ancillary targets. If deep throws and 40 points are in the cards, Calvin Johnson must have another monstrous game. Bet on it; the Saints" pass defense ranked 30th this season after giving up a league-high 14 plays of 40-plus yards. Advantage: Lions Saints O vs. Lions D There seems to be no answer for stopping this offensive juggernaut. The last team to do it was, believe it or not, the Rams. They used an active four-man pass-rush, with press-coverage at cornerback, two high safeties over the top and underneath coverage from fast linebackers. The Lions obviously have the resources for a fierce pass rush. And their linebackers have improved in coverage. However, the Lions lack press-man corners. Chris Houston, Eric Wright and Alphonso Smith are all off-coverage zone defenders (though they've played man-to-man well on third down at times this season). It's critical that speedy safety Louis Delmas - who, granted, is a better box player than open-field player - returns from his knee injury this week. Even at full strength, the Lions" chances are slim. Their best bet is to assume a bend-but-don't-break approach (which naturally fits their Cover 2 M.O.) and force the Saints to score off long drives. More snaps for the Saints means more chances for a fluky turnover. It also means a shorter game, which can help keep the contest close down the stretch. Advantage: Saints Pick: Saints 42-31 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) @ Denver Broncos (8-8) Steelers O vs. Broncos D This could be a surprisingly tough matchup for the Steeler offense, and not because running back Rashard Mendenhall is out (ACL). Isaac Redman is more of plodder than Mendenhall, but that doesn't mean he can't make the occasional defender miss. He's capable of getting 60-70 yards on 15 carries. Regardless of the running back situation, the Steeler offense is built around its aerial attack. Last week against the Browns, the Steelers frequently spread into 3 x 2 receiver sets with an empty backfield on passing downs. This may have been an effort to clearly define the passing lanes for Roethlisberger and give him an opportunity to stay off his ankle by getting the ball out quickly. That's simply not Roethlisberger's game, though. If the ball's in his hand, his inclination is to extend the play. He was able to do that against the Browns but only because he was facing a poor pass rush. No chance the Steeler offensive tackles hold up one-on-one against Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. If Roethlisberger wants to extend the action and give speedy targets Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace playmaking opportunities downfield, the Steelers will have to settle into more compressed formations that allow backs and tight ends to chip on the pass rushers. Broncos O vs. Steelers D The blueprint for beating Denver's offense is to make Tim Tebow throw. The Chiefs further exposed Tebow's glaring limitations last week by playing press-man coverage for four quarters. That's a coverage the Broncos" possession receivers are not equipped to beat, and one that Tebow's not comfortable throwing against (windows are too tight). The Steelers are more of a zone defense, although corner Ike Taylor is a world-class press-man defender (expect him to hold Demaryius Thomas to under four catches) and William Gay, Keenan Lewis and Bryant McFadden are capable of handling untalented wideouts man-to-man. Whatever coverage the Steelers choose will work. Let's keep it simple and remember that we're talking about the league's top-ranked pass defense against the league's most futile passing attack. Of course, the quarterback happens to be a good runner, which is why the Broncos are still playing. But few teams have success running against the Steelers" seven-man front. And virtually no team has success when Troy Polamalu drops moves up and makes it an eight-man front. The Steeler inside linebackers are faster than any the Broncos have seen, the outside linebackers are stronger than any they've seen and the three-man defensive line is more active than any they've seen. The Broncos will have trouble breaking 200 yards of total offense. Advantage: Steelers Pick: Steelers 13-3