Coalition "off target" on immigration cut DAVID Cameron's promise to slash net migration to the UK by "tens of thousands" is set to be broken despite new curbs, according to research from a leading think-tank. The Prime Minister's high profile pledge can only be met if the downturn proves bad enough to make the country less attractive to new migrants and forces EU migrants already here to go elsewhere for work, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said. Its predictions for 2012 showed net migration - the difference between the number entering the UK and the number leaving - falling from a record 252,000 in 2010 to 180,000 this year. Its associate director for UK migration, Matt Cavanagh, said: "While policy changes will start to achieve significant reductions in immigration from outside the EU, this will not be enough to put the government on track to hit its target." Restrictions on immigration brought in by government could also be a drag on the UK economy when demand for more workers picks up, he added. Overall, 2012 "will be a crucial year for coalition ministers," Cavanagh said. The warning comes after Cameron used a speech last year to press the case for tougher immigration rules under which economic migrants would still be welcomed, but the numbers overall cut. It came after figures showed that, between 1997 and 2009, 2.2 million more people came to live in the UK than left. The plans, Cameron said, "will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade." Cavanagh warned that while there was strong support for curbing immigration, there was growing scepticism about whether it was achievable. "By promising what it cannot deliver, the government, far from achieving its stated aim of taking the heat out of this emotive issue, will instead feed the public's sense of disillusionment," he said. The IPPR study suggests the number of migrants coming to the UK from outside the EU will fall by about 10 per cent in 2012, fuelled by new restrictions on foreign students and worsening economic conditions. The number of EU migrants coming to the UK could also fall, and the number leaving rise, as the UK's economic prospects decline relative to EU states such as Poland, now the largest immigrant group by nationality in the UK. But the IPPR said further curbs on skilled migrants coming to the UK, such as a higher salary threshold for those on intra-company transfers, were unlikely to reduce overall numbers by more than 10,000. Further restrictions on family migration were also likely to have little immediate effect as they are expected to be held up by challenges in the courts. And it predicted that figures published early this year will show the number of foreign prisoners who have been returned to their home countries during 2011 will have fallen, piling pressure on the UK Border Agency when it already faced significant staff cuts. Ministers yesterday insisted that the IPPR analysis backed up their efforts. Immigration minister Damian Green said: "IPPR's predicted reduction in net migration of 70,000 by the end of 2012 is consistent with hitting our target of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by the end of this parliament. We've limited non-EU workers coming to the UK, overhauled the student visa system and will shortly announce reforms of the family migration and settlement routes. The latest quarterly figures show student visas issued are down 13 per cent and the main work visas issued are down 18 per cent compared to last year - an early sign our policies are starting to take effect. Alp Mehmet, vice-chairman of Migration Watch, said: "This is the usual carping from the Left. They know the numbers must be reduced but they seem to have nothing constructive to propose. He added: "The plain fact is that the government are on course but have a very long way to go."