Ron Paul's Campaign Plots Path Focused on Delegate Math LAKE JACKSON, Tex. - Ron Paul says he has by no means given up on winning the Republican presidential nomination, but he acknowledges that he might not make it. Representative Ron Paul, who is running for the Republican presidential nomination, campaigning Sunday in Myrtle Beach, S.C. "The odds are right now that Romney, he pulls it off," Mr. Paul, a Texas congressman, said in an interview here. But he doesn't even have a guarantee in a week. That whole thing can shift rather quickly. So even as his aides plot a strategy to pick up delegates, they are beginning to plan how to use the leverage they are gaining to try to force the party to take his and his supporters" views into account, signaling what Mr. Paul would want to party officials and rival candidates who are eager for the backing of his fervent following but nervous that he might undertake a third-party bid. One person close to the Paul campaign said this could include support for greater transparency at the Federal Reserve, a commitment to address what Mr. Paul views as the Patriot Act's infringement on civil liberties and a curb on the powers of any president to wage war without Congressional approval. And the campaign wants Mr. Paul's supporters to have a voice and a role in the national party machinery - just like they do in many state Republican parties - no matter who becomes the nominee. "The more delegates I have, the more leverage I have," Mr. Paul said in the interview here, during which he candidly discussed his hopes but remained circumspect about some issues. We'll go after delegates, and we have staying power. Asked whether he believed he would have the leverage to make Republicans more willing to accommodate his supporters and positions, he said: "I don't know how they're going to handle it. Because we're very precise on what we would like, and I can't imagine all of a sudden one of the other candidates changing their position on their desire to go to war constantly. He added: "How much leverage do I have? How many more votes am I going to get? You know, the more pressure they feel, the more they might be willing to look at some of those issues. We want to change things. But that is a fallback strategy, and Mr. Paul and his advisers say they are in it to win. They see a route to obtaining the 1,144 delegates needed by not overemphasizing primaries in expensive media markets, especially those where it is harder for independents to vote, and focusing on less-flashy contests where the expected cost per delegate is weighted more in their favor. They will also try to win delegates through the machinery of state parties, where Paul supporters are now embedded in the apparatus. In Iowa, for example, whose delegates are not explicitly tied to caucus results, they believe they can take delegates that might otherwise be awarded to Rick Santorum, who essentially tied for first place with Mr. Romney, one Paul official said. This "Moneyball"-like approach to delegates, which takes a page from the 2008 campaign of Barack Obama, is about to be put into play. Mr. Paul may make only one stop in Florida before that state's Jan. 31 primary and will instead focus his efforts after the South Carolina primary on Saturday on caucuses in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada and other places where the cost of television and mail programs is less expensive and where election rules favor his strategy. People close to the Paul campaign say it would cost them $9 million to $10 million to run an effective campaign in Florida, where only about 50 delegates are at stake. Florida is a closed primary, so independent voters important to Mr. Paul's strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire cannot register just before the election. The state is also a winner-take-all contest, meaning only the victor walks away with delegates. "There are four big caucuses coming up, with twice as many delegates as Florida, that will cost a third as much money, and we are focused on those," one Paul official said. With 28 delegates at stake, North Dakota also illustrates the strategy: the Paul campaign estimates that it will cost just $500,000 to run an effective campaign there, and delegates are awarded proportionately, so even if they do not finish first they could walk away with a decent allotment.