N.F.L. Divisional Round Probabilities - NYTimes.com Some statistical story lines for this weekend's divisional matchups: This is the only game of the weekend that's not a rematch from the regular season. It's a typical unstoppable force versus unmovable object matchup, as the scorching hot Saints offense faces a very tough 49ers defense. The 49ers should be able to slow the onslaught from Drew Brees and company, but not stop it, forcing Alex Smith and their offense to score more points than they usually do to win. But even in his best season, Smith is below average in yards per attempt. The 49ers" running game is average. The offense's strength has been its lack of turnovers, which has helped win field position battles, but this isn't likely to be that kind of game. When these teams met in Denver in Week 14, Tom Brady was the difference. He produced 17.0 Expected Points Added in an 18-point win for the Patriots. The focus will be on Tim Tebow, but I'll be watching the Broncos" pass rushers. They'll need more than the two sacks and two quarterback hits they had in their first meeting. The Broncos were successful running the ball, so I'd look for them to try to act out the same script that has been working for them. Run the ball. Burn clock. Keep the game close, and hope for a miracle at the end. Part of the Broncos" advantage since Tebow became the starter is the novelty of their option attack, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots are already familiar with it. Using only Tebow's stats, the game probability below isn't affected. The rookie quarterback T.J. Yates has played better than he has been given credit for. His Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (which accounts for sacks and interceptions) is higher than that of his counterpart Joe Flacco this season. Houston's defense doesn't get the press that Baltimore's does, but it's one of the very best. This season, the Texans have allowed 5.2 Yards per Attempt compared with the Ravens" 5.4. I expect a much closer game than most other analysts have been predicting. Using Yates's numbers only, Baltimore has the edge 52/48. The Giants remind me of last year's Packers. They had to win their last few games to sneak into the playoffs, but they are much better than their regular season record suggests. My numbers rank their offense as fourth in the league and their defense as 16th. Overall, they rank sixth in the league in total team efficiency. The Packers" defense is better than it appears on paper. I think the efficiency numbers don't properly gauge their true ability. They're 31st in the league in efficiency, but 13th in Win Probability Added, a more advanced estimate of their effect on game outcomes. The Packers often play with big leads in the second half, and can allow opponents to move the ball in the middle of the field in exchange for burning time off the clock. Opponents are forced to throw the ball more aggressively than they'd like, causing turnovers. The Packers are the favorites, but I'm giving the Giants a better shot than most. Here are the game probabilities for this weekend's division round: New Orleans at San Francisco Denver at New England Houston at Baltimore NY Giants at Green Bay