BP Gulf of Mexico trial 'will not take place', analysts predict The trial is scheduled to commence at the end of February but Martjin Rats, head of European oil research at Morgan Stanley, said: "Our base case expectation is that this trial will not take place as instead BP, the Department of Justice (DoJ) and other parties involved agree to a settlement before the February 27 start-date." Mr Rats said he saw a 70-80pc chance that BP and the DoJ would opt to settle because the outcome of the trial would be "particularly uncertain and difficult to predict." He wrote: "Given the large amounts involved, we believe both BP and the DoJ will find the associated risk unattractive. A settlement that includes not only BP's civil charges but also criminal penalties and natural resource damage claims appears most likely. In that case, we expect a total charge for BP in the order of $20-25bn. This significantly exceeds provisions that BP has against this of ~$12 bn. Sources at BP told Reuters that talks were ongoing with the Department of Justice about a possible settlement and that the company's board was now holding weekly meetings to discuss progress. Bob Dudley, BP chief executive, had previously said that BP would like to settle, although not at any price. Asked about it on Wednesday he declined to comment, saying it was a sensitive time to discuss the issue.