Terry Murden: Calendar turns but the old problems are still with us Why the question mark? Probably because we've now got used to the idea that happiness is conditional on too many precariously positioned outcomes. If it is to be a happy new year then we also have to hope somebody out there has a magic wand. There may be a change in the calendar year but the problems we encountered in the last 12 months ain't gone away and some - in the retail sector for instance - could get a lot worse. Next will provide a light amid the gloom when it provides an upbeat trading statement this week, but it will soon fade as the weaker performers reveal the impact on margins of luring shoppers with discounts of up to 70 per cent. The casualties on the high street keep mounting: D2 went into administration last week and 1,600 shop workers lost their jobs when no one could be found to buy the Barratts Priceless concessions. Others are expected to join HMV, JJB and Blacks Leisure in intensive care. The black cloud that we all need lifting is hovering over the Eurozone. It was a rubbish idea in the first place, fraught with naive political ambitions, but the potential fracturing of the 17-nation bloc is said to be the one thing we must avoid. That depends on whether you believe there is no alternative. A collapse in the euro would certainly be a concern for British exporters but in spite of pledges and assurances that the euro will survive, it does look like there will be casualties. Greece falling out looks like the bookies" favourite. Some European bank failing also has to be a possibility. But if the will to survive is strong enough, then a way will be found to make it happen. Expect a stronger role for the European Central Bank, a low interest rate regime and more austerity. It could amount to a period of stagflation for Europe and more civil unrest. But these may be prices worth paying if accompanied by workable plans to stimulate growth. Let past be history As for us here in Scotland, it bothers me sometimes that the sentimental, saltire-waving, remind-the-world-who-invented-everything rhetoric simply acts as a smokescreen to the realities of the state we're in. Try reconciling last week's God's own country stuff from the Scottish Government about Scots drawing on their history to forge a great future with a hugely downbeat report from Lloyds TSB economist Donald Macrae. He said Scotland's recovery had stalled, export activity was plunging and 80 per cent of firms expect turnover to fall, together adding up to a year of negligible or non-existent growth. Not much there to prompt a New Year celebration, let alone to mount a campaign for independence based on promises of greater prosperity created by a country that can "once again be the land that shapes the world," as First Minister Alex Salmond said in his optimistic New Year message. Oh aye, and the streets will be paved with gold? Let's face it, we can't even afford to re-pave our cracked and pot-holed streets with tarmac, and with a recent history of financial calamities from the parliament to the banks and the trams it's unlikely the world will want reshaping by Scots until we can prove capable of getting our own house in order. Any good news? Well, we ain't broke yet. The restaurants are busy - a sign that there is still plenty of disposable income around. Interest rates are low (good news unless you're a saver). The tram dispute has been resolved and we're getting a new bridge over the Forth, another of those "infrastructure" projects that will help create jobs. The banks still have work to do but most of the difficult decisions have been taken. However, they risk more outrage when the next round of bonuses is declared. At least somebody will have a happy new year.