Final Iowa polls show fragmented field The crowd gathered in below-freezing temperatures outside the Reising Sun Café in Polk City, Iowa, had no chance of getting in to see Rick Santorum. The room was already jammed with people. But still they waited for a glimpse of the former Pennsylvania senator, whom they hope could score an upset victory in Tuesday's Iowa caucuses. "We are asking all the Christians throughout America to get behind him so we can have a godly Christian man as president," said Jim Bob Duggar, a reality TV star who drove up from Arkansas with 12 of his 19 children to stump for Mr Santorum. Tuesday evening, starting at 7pm, about 130,000 Republican voters in Iowa will cast the first ballots to select their nominee to challenge Barack Obama's control of the White House in the November US election. According to a Des Moines Register poll on Saturday, 41 per cent of the probable participants in the so-called "caucuses" are still undecided, adding urgency to the last-minute dash for support across the state. Final polls show how fragmented and volatile the contest is. Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman, and Mr Santorum - who is soaking up much of the energy in the final stages of the race - are in a virtual tie for first place. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, trails a short distance behind. Iowa's record in selecting the Republican party's nominee - and ultimately the president - is mixed. In 2008, conservative voters chose Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, shunning John McCain, the Arizona senator who eventually lost to Mr Obama. But in 2000 and 1996, Iowa voters picked George W. Bush and Bob Dole respectively, and each went on to secure the Republican nomination. So this Midwestern state could be a crucial stepping stone towards victory or be largely irrelevant. Indeed, some leading candidates, including Mr Romney and Mr Gingrich, made an early bet that Iowa would not be as important this year and did not campaign heavily in the state. Others - such as Mr Paul and Mr Santorum - have invested much time and energy to woo Iowans through the special brand of grassroots, retail politics that has come to define the state's presidential contests. However, every presidential hopeful has been trying to curry last-minute advantages, putting on full display one of the great spectacles of American democracy. For Mr Romney, at the Davenport fairgrounds on Monday morning, the aim was to cement his status as the likely frontrunner and show that, even in a state where Republicans are more conservative and religious than elsewhere in the US, he is best placed to beat Mr Obama. For Mr Santorum, the mission was to unite social conservatives who have been hunting for an alternative to Mr Romney. That effort seemed to be working. Deb Stokka, a 60-year-old real estate agent at the Polk City rally, says: "I like his presentation, I like his attitude. I am a Christian and I believe in the core values that our country had when it was founded. Eleanor Bauer, an 82-year-old precinct captain, says she was for Mr Santorum from the beginning. "He's such a real person, what you see is what you get," Ms Bauer said, adding that she supports his tough stance against Iran and his emphasis on the importance of family. Meanwhile, Mr Paul, who was in Des Moines stumping with his son Rand Paul, a senator from Kentucky, is vying to be taken seriously, and not just as a fringe candidate. For Mr Gingrich, the mission has been to regain his footing and set himself up for South Carolina and Florida, which should be friendlier terrain for the former Georgia congressman. After rising to the top of the polls in early December, Mr Gingrich's campaign has been the most damaged by one of the defining characteristics of this year's Iowa caucus campaign: a flood of dollars spent on attack television ads by outside, independent groups that are not directly approved by any candidate. At Junction Sports Bar & Grill in Marshalltown, with light snow flurries and blustering winds outside on New Year's Day, Mr Gingrich seemed to be having some success in persuading Iowa's notoriously hard-to-convince voters to stay with him. "I feel safer with him, the others are so young," said Clarice Roseland, the 72-year-old wife of a corn and soyabean farmer, who backed Mr Huckabee in 2008 and proudly recalls supporting Ronald Reagan when he swung through town in 1979 on his road to the White House. But others were less convinced. "We are about electability," says Larry Raymon, a 68-year-old manufacturing executive, who attended the Marshalltown event with his wife and claims to have never missed a caucus. We think Romney has the most chance of beating Obama and that's essential. The independents are going to elect the next president, not the people in this room.