Younger Kim faces need to prove himself Kim Jong-il, the film buff who directed hundreds of movies himself, got the happy ending he always craved. If we believe the official script, he expired from exhaustion in the tireless service of the North Korean people. His own nightmares were bleaker. He once confessed to Chung Ju-yung, the founder of Hyundai, that he feared his own people might join Americans and South Koreans in stoning him to death. IN North Korea While the elder Kim escaped this bloody end, Kim Jong-eun, his son and successor, must be worrying whether he will be so lucky. Seoul and Pyongyang have been at pains in recent weeks to stress their policies towards each other would continue unchanged after Kim Jong-il's death. But their rhetoric cannot disguise how uncertain the peninsula's security has become. Lee Myung-bak, South Korea's president, used his new year address to repeat a longstanding offer: North Korea still has a "window of opportunity" to secure warmer ties and $40bn of infrastructure investment if it dismantles its nuclear weapons programme. North Korea, which joined the nuclear club with its test in 2006, has never been less likely to accept. Pyongyang needs the bomb, its principal claim to international relevance, to bolster its inexperienced new leader. Indeed, Kim Jong-eun may soon need to detonate another warhead to show North Korea has mastered uranium enrichment as well as plutonium production. North Korea is straining to present an illusion of continuity. Throughout Kim Jong-il's funeral last week, the successor was flanked by some of his father's chief lieutenants. Just in case we did not understand this choreography, Pyongyang later announced "foolish politicians" around the world should understand its policies would not change. However, beneath this rhetoric, it is impossible to pretend nothing has changed. Kim Jong-eun has been elevated suddenly while still in his late 20s and will not enjoy the absolute power of his father and grandfather. Instead, he will head a messy government by committee in which rival generals will jostle to control him. Kim Jong-il could scare those around him. Even Chang Sung-taek, Kim Jong-eun's uncle and mentor, disappeared for a stint of "re-education." Kim Jong-eun won't have that same power to chastise Mr Chang or his father's top brass. Little Jong-eun grew up in a fantasy bubble of palaces, whooshing down water slides and bagging seals in hunting menageries. He probably has little perception of what real life - and death - looks like in the country's provinces. He also will find himself reliant on the political judgment of his father's friends. The greater threat, though, is his need to prove himself. North Korea has promised it will pass through the "gateway of a mighty and prosperous nation" this year. "Prosperous" is impossible. A quarter of its people are starving and the power grid is moribund. Opening the floodgates to foreign investment, even from China, could trigger destabilising social change. The Kims have swiftly crushed dissent from the hungry populace. When there are alarming protests, such as those over bungled currency reforms in 2009, communities cannot co-ordinate dissent between isolated towns. But keeping the lid on this simmering anger will become harder, particularly as more North Koreans get mobile phones. The propaganda apparatus can still kindle ardour among better-fed ordinary citizens in Pyongyang, but it is impossible to determine the loyalty of elites. Recent visitors to the capital note this mysterious hierarchy is becoming more outspoken, uttering previously unthinkable heresies such as: "When this collapses, you'll help us, won't you?" Facing such rumblings, Kim Jong-eun must focus on making his nation "mighty" and this is the biggest danger. The "Supreme Commander" must prove he can deliver victories in tune with the state's "military-first" doctrine and he knows that: His first major visit as leader was to a tank division. As he mourns his father fear must be mixing with grief for Kim Jong-eun. China and the US can try to soothe him with talks and food aid. Fundamentally, though, they must plan for a scrappy endgame, realising this cornered and untested young man surely feels he must fight for his own life and that of his state.