IF THERE is one bedevilled policy around which Japanese politicians have chased their tails for more than a decade, it is the consumption tax on goods and services. Yoshihiko Noda, the prime minister, appears ready to stake his premiership on raising the tax for the first time since 1997. As The Economist went to press, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was tweaking a draft bill to increase the tax from 5% today to 8% in 2014 and 10% a year later. Once approved by the cabinet, Mr Noda hopes next week to present the bill to parliament. It is expected to cause such a battle this spring, both on ideological and political grounds, that some believe Mr Noda may be forced to call a general election should he fail to get his way. The ideological division, crudely put, is between debt-alarmists and the deflation-weary. Supporters of a rise in the consumption tax point to a bulging government debt and ageing population. They say raising the rate, the lowest for a sales or similar tax among OECD countries, is the fairest way to prevent fiscal ruin. Opponents say that with Japan's economy still mired in deflation, more frugality is the real menace, along with the Svengalis in the finance ministry who advocate it. The politics is equally fraught. The DPJ is split. Ichiro Ozawa, a controversial fixer who leads the biggest faction within the party, is staunchly opposed, arguing that it will bring electoral disaster - as it has to all governments that have sought to raise the tax in the past. The party's chief rival is the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In upper-house elections in 2010, it proposed a rise in the consumption tax to 10%, yet has so far refused to co-operate with the DPJ in drafting the bill. The LDP's leader, Sadakazu Tanigaki, has repeatedly demanded that Mr Noda call an election before putting a bill to the vote. He appears to want a tilt at the prime ministership before he comes up for re-election as party chief in September. Yoshimasa Hayashi, a senior LDP man, says there is an even chance that the bill could be approved. He acknowledges his party would be considered "infantile" by voters if it blocks a bill for self-interested ends. However, the concessions he believes the government should make in order to win his party's approval, including dropping plans for a more generous pension system, are likely only to deepen the rift within the ruling party. One way to improve the bill's chances, either before or after an election, would be for the pro-tax politicians from both parties to forge an alliance, something that the press dubs a "grand coalition." Unconfirmed reports claim that Mr Noda has secretly discussed the possibility with Mr Tanigaki, though nothing seems to have come of it. Mr Hayashi says that the two sides are too far apart on other issues, such as foreign policy (where the LDP is more hawkish) and labour relations (where it is more pro-business), to agree to a coalition. Similar ideas were mooted before his party lost its grip on power in 2009. Renewing the idea, Mr Hayashi says, would confuse voters. That said, there is a danger for both main parties should a parliamentary stalemate force Mr Noda to call a snap election. Lurking in the background are parties outside the mainstream. Increasingly, these are preying on voters" dissatisfaction with the unappetising old guard. The most talked about is a new party led by the outspoken mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto. It mixes a tea-party-like disdain for big government and labour unions with a nationalism that horrifies the left. Mr Hashimoto's Osaka Restoration Party has not been tested on the national stage, so the threat is hard to quantify. Mr Hayashi says that Mr Hashimoto's new group, and other small parties, are becoming forces to reckon with. Moreover, Mr Hashimoto's party may be one that the LDP could do business with. The LDP may be keener on making common cause with the anti-union Mr Hashimoto than forging a pro-tax alliance with the DPJ. Yet what is bad for the DPJ is also likely to be bad for the LDP. Opinion polls suggest voters have lost faith in both of them. A lower-house election might mean neither main party wins an outright majority. And the consumption tax change might therefore remain as elusive as ever.