FT Alphaville " Markets Live transcript 13 Apr 2012 Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:06 on 13 Apr 2012. Duncan Robinson is with me Almost made it to the weekend Welcome to a down day in London Chilly outside; stocks are off. This is despite Google being forecasts last night. Its all to do with China But before we discuss that. France: Sarkozy s'en prend auFinancial Times Le président-candidat français Nicolas Sarkozy s'en est pris jeudi soir sur France 2 au quotidien britannique des milieux d'affaires Financial Times en dénonçant ses positions économiques libérales. "Ils ne sont pas d'accord avec moi, ça me réjouit beaucoup figurez-vous parce que je ne suis pas d'accord avec eux," a dit M. Sarkozy interrogé dans l"émission "Des paroles et des actes" sur les critiques du quotidien concernant la politique économique actuellement menée en Europe. Translation: "Sarkozy gives the FT both barrels" So what do we make of this Duncan? Well, the FT is notoriously anti-EU. They don't agree with me, which I find very funny, you know, because I don't agree with them... The FT, as they say in informed circles, has always defended the Anglo-Saxon model, considering the French irredeemable and that we would do better to align ourselves to the Anglo-Saxon model... The FT has for many years said that the solution for the world is that there should be no law... I think exactly the opposite.... The FT, as an editorial position, hates laws. yeah, all libertarians round here Not the pinko FT at all Anyway, to prove there's no hard feelings, let's have a look at Sarko's poll numbers. Perhaps this FT attack will swing it for him... Hollande got 6 point lead And we look forward to Hollande tear up the fiscal deal Euro crisis going white hot again Anything to sell papers And introducing his 75% tax. I just don't get this China stuff. Stocks supposedly lower on the Chinese Q1 GDP numbers - 8.1% from 8.9% previously. But the Chinese TOLD US they were having a soft landing. If China says its economy is slowing then it's slowing, right? Remember the china take. Yes yes, I know the consensus forecast was for 8.3%. But all the Chinese rhetoric has been about moving to a lower level of trend growth. And China delivers what it says its going to deliver. Otherwise it wouldn't be a command economy, right? Here's some stuff from Stan Chart  •Q1 GDP growth came in much lower than market consensus, at 8.1% y/y; down from 8.9% y/y in Q4-2011 • _Smaller firms and services sector led the slowdown; we see more headwinds in Q2 • _Beijing will need to step up policy easing; we maintain our 2012 GDP growth forecast of 8.1% China‟s Q1 GDP growth came in below market consensus, at 8.1% y/y, down from 8.9% in Q4-2011. This was the fifth consecutive quarter of slowing growth after growth peaked at 9.8% y/y in Q4-2010 (Chart 1). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, our calculations suggest that q/q GDP growth slowed to 6.6% in Q1 from 9.0% in Q4. Industrial production (IP) at large companies - those with annual sales above CNY 20mn - grew 11.9% y/y in March, up from an average growth rate of 11.4% in the first two months of 2012 (Chart 2). This implies that smaller firms and the services sector were the main causes of the sharper-than-expected GDP growth slowdown in Q1. This is particularly worrying given that these sectors tend to be more labour-intensive. Faced with a continued weakening of domestic demand, Beijing will have to step up easing measures. We maintain our call that GDP growth will slow further in Q2 to around 7.8% y/y before recovering in H2 on more policy stimulus. The rapid retreat in liquidity-driven optimism in global financial markets - which is giving way to fundamentally driven realism - will weigh on domestic investor sentiment in Q2. On the monetary policy front, the reported relaxation of loan-to-deposit ratio regulations seems to have boosted loan growth in March. However, further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts are needed to encourage banks to lower lending charges to customers. We continue to forecast four more RRR cuts, of 50 bps each, in 2012. Colleague of Stephen Green of course Seems a bit upset by these numbers Reckons the Chinese authorities will have to step on the gas there's a big note out of Credit Suisse this morning on commodities / China Will China give the West space to recover? After the turmoil of 2011, the first few months of this year have been relatively uneventful, with global growth proving more resilient than many had feared - it is now clear that the slowdown in H2 2011 was minor, and that Q4 was the low point in the cycle. As predicted (From Fear Flows Opportunity 8H), as the tail risks have faded, the prices of many risk assets have rebounded, with the next big move in prices likely to be more dependent on individual commodity "fundamentals" than has been the case for much of the past year. Despite the market obsession with the prospects for QE etc, we note that prices in early Q2 are consistent with the LEVEL of global demand, which is much higher than many realize. In contrast to the large output gap evident in the North Atlantic, at a global level economic activity has returned to the long-run trend, with the EM countries having effectively "borrowed" the spare capacity released by the West during the "Great Recession." With global growth likely to move above average over coming months, we think that markets will tighten further over the course of 2012, with the rebound led by the US and China. Rather than a Chinese "hard landing," to us the greater risk is that Chinese growth rebounds more than currently anticipated. That would see markets tighten substantially (given the limited spare capacity the world needs below average Chinese growth to allow the US to close its output gap) and lead to another significant bout of commodity price inflation - commodities are currently the effective speed limit for global growth. After rallying significantly over recent months, we believe the price of Brent oil is likely to creep up further in H2, with the risks firmly to the upside (supply disruptions). Many industrial metals are also likely to continue to rally over the course of the year, with palladium having the largest upside potential. Gold should continue to trend higher for a time, but may start to peak around the middle of 2013. Thinnk it would be a good idea if that note appeared in the usual place. Oh look, it's there already (Anthrax thanks for that ZH link Anything further from the Continent? L'Oreal posted a decent set of results. And is powering away on the Eurofirst, up 2.1% at €93. 6.4% jump in like for like revenue growth. How did they manage that? Strong Q112 leads to 2.5% upgrade to FY12e. Despite a tough comp base, OR reported a solid Q1 with 6.4% LFL beating JPMe 5.2%. Management cautioned "against extrapolating Q1 figures but did not mention any "one-off" factors either. The strong Q1 drives our FY12 LFL higher to 5.7% (vs JPMe 4.5% earlier). A strong delivery in Luxury (12.2%) also drives our margin expectations higher on better operating leverage from +50bps in FY12 to 70bps (16.7%). We increase our FY12 adj. EPS estimates by 2.5% to €4.78, above BBG consensus of €4.64. Luxury goods, of course. Broad-based Q1 though Luxe stole the show. Q1 beat was driven by a "stellar" delivery in Luxe of +12% (vs JPMe 7%) evidencing share gains vs a 6-7% market growth, which we believe were boosted by the success of Lancome's Visionnaire and the new Skin care launch at YSL. Nevertheless performance was strong across the rest of the business indicating L'Oreal is gaining shares across all main regions and particularly in NA and WE. WE was pleasing with +1.7% as was a recovery in Eastern Europe with +2% LFL. A weak Brazil led to +8% in LA, in line with JPMe +8.5%. Incidentally, How to Spend It is in today's FT. All good newsagents, etc. Ah yes, one of the occasional friday editions I'm planning to get a pair of those pants on the front cover Anyway, JPM upped their TP on the stock to 108 from 97. Where's the market price today Chunky target then for JPM Other euro stocks while on the subject How's that chap on fire Nokia is tearing away. Footsie down 25 points currently What's the leading the way down? allers include Admiral Balanced out by miners - which is rather surprising given the supposed china miss Obv hoping the Chinese will command the economy higher Desmond Decker, you are in luck. ble & Wireless World wide leading the second liners Quote currrently up 5% at 37p This is on the back of a fresh batch of reports saying Tata Comms of India IS going to bid Supposed to be a dead cert And a number of analysts seem to agree No mention of Vodafone on this, btw. Anyway here's some sell side Newswire report yesterday that Tata Communications" lending banks are still working on the terms of a reported $2bn 30-month bridge loan to finance its bid for Cable & Wireless Worldwide [BUY, FV 40.00p]. Previous media reports suggested the loan was expected to be finalised this week but the banks are apparently confident the funding will be in place ahead of next Thursday's (19 April) bid deadline (sources: "two sources familiar with the situation" according to dealReporter/Bloomberg). Perhaps more significantly, the news suggests that although TCOM has been asked to explore selling some non-core assets to appease banks for future financing, given the scale of the Tata Group [not rated], underwriters were comfortable with the financing and were not concerned with TCOM's debt levels - meaning the full amount of the loan could be used to finance a bid for CWW rather than allocating a portion to paying down existing debt. We note this speculation has yet to be substantiated by TCOM yet. The $2bn figure implies an EV for CWW of £1.26bn or an equity value of £1.09bn on our March 2012 net debt forecast (i.e. about 41p per share). We recently upgraded CWW to BUY, selecting it as a Silver Bullet idea for 2Q 2012 as we believe it is increasingly likely Vodafone or TCOM or both will bid for CWW at a level significantly above the current share price. We believe initial bids may be higher than 40p, but we reflect the risk that both parties might walk away from a deal in this fair value by applying a 20% discount. A bidding war may emerge but we still believe Vodafone could justify a higher premium than Tata because of the combination of the available tax assets and synergies with its existing UK operation. Cable & Wireless Worldwide - TATA bid expected by next Thursday I'm sure we'll get a helpful reminder from a PR in a few mins if not... Anyway, this bid better arrive A lot of hot money in this stock CW at 37.369 at the moment. Up 5.3%. TTAco was your mouth out Okay - quick visit to Glenstrata Statement from the two sides this morning saying they need more time to produce documentation I seem to be the only person surprised by this But they DIDNT think they would get referred to the Euro comp authorities I have no idea how they came to that clot-headed conclusion, but there you go Bit of an oversight, to put it lightly. So now they need more time to get their anti-trust act together You google european competition rules And then read the rule book I imagine it's a real page-turner. on the subject of bids or fantasy M&A at least Aberdeen Asset Management Some excitement yesterday This is on the back of reports that Mitsubushi looking to buy something Mitsubishi UFJ Got anything on that Duncan? Yesterday Aberdeen's share price increased 4.1% on the day. The FTSE 100, of which Aberdeen is a constituent, increased 1.3% on the day. Year-to-date, Aberdeen has increased 26.2%, against the FTSE 100 increasing 2.5%. The FTSE 350 Financial Services Index, of which Aberdeen is also a constituent, has increased 13.8% year-to-date. Multiple press sources (including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Japanese press associations) reported yesterday that Mitsubishi UFJ is seeking foreign (non-Japanese) acquisitions and alliances. Press reports specifically mentioned the US as Mitsubishi UFJ's preferred market to expand in. The time frame to invest in a US fund management firm was indicated as "in the next three years." The reports directly quoted Mitsubishi UFJ President Tatsuo Wakabayashi. Mr. Wakabayashi, who took over as President on 1 April, indicated that Mitsubishi UFJ can spend up to 150 billion yen ($1.8 billion, £1.2 billion) on investments in the next three years. Mitsubishi UFJ holds a 17.7% stake in Aberdeen. Aberdeen's current market cap is £3.1 billion. Thus, we believe that Aberdeen is outside of Mitsubishi UFJ's preferred geographic area of expansion and is too large based upon Mr. Wakabayashi's takeover criteria. We believe that while it is possible that Mitsubishi UFJ could increase its stake in Aberdeen, that it will likely stay below the 30% mandatory bid threshold in the near term. Mitsubishi UFJ's President also indicated that his company "may consider taking a majority stake after making sure that we can work well with the company's management." We believe, and the press reports indicate, that he was referring to US targets and not Aberdeen. Further, Martin Gilbert, CEO and Founder of Aberdeen, has sold sharesn Aberdeen. The company reported these transactions in both December 2011 and April 2012. Share price heats up on takeover reports. We think a takeover of Aberdeen is unlikely in the near term. That seems a pretty clear headed to me That last point seals it If the Japanese were going to make a move, they would likely tell Martin Gilbert And he's rather unlikely to have decided to deal on the news! Of course. no slight intended. There's jsut no evidence of a bid Thing I fouled up on earlier in the week Price has continue to motor ahead - up another 18% at 11.50 today It's tripled in the space of two weeks. And the placing price was at 247 - march 30 So up more than four fold from there market cap has gone from 157m to circa 650m in that time Charles Stanley the broker on this one Will have some satisfied clients im sure What do we know about this? Not a lot more than we did Other than it being the hottest stock on the london market all of a sudden But look at this - came out late afternoon on Wednesday The Company announces that Ivor Shrago, Chairman and Non-Executive Director and Gresham Trustees Ltd, the trustees of Mr Shrago's Self Invested Personal Pension ("SIPP"), have today sold 20,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 725 pence per ordinary share. Such sale has been effected, with the agreement of the Company's Nominated Adviser, Charles Stanley Securities, in order to satisfy exceptional market demand. Following the transaction Mr. Shrago's SIPP is beneficially interested in 328,000 ordinary shares representing 0.54 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company. Such shareholding remains subject to the lock in provisions, disclosed in the Company's Admission Document, which is available to download from the Company's website www.rareearthsglobal.com. Chairman clearly ignorant - cashing in a portion of his stock at 725p. Left a little bit of money on the table there... This is the guy I believe Well no doubt made his own luck Rare Earth just traded at 12 quid a moment ago Price back to 11.30 now tho @Electric Dragon: Ha! I get the sense that we are gong to be writing regularly on this stock Yes, one to keep an eye on, certainly. Fanta wants some aintree tips Grand national tomorrow, no? Let me refer to the Shrewette 2:00 Darlan 2/1 (fav) and EW Agent Archie 16/1 2:30 Silviniaco Conti 7/4 3:05 Poquelin 6/1 to beat dear old Albertas Run 9/4 3:40 this race is run on the National course (but only 2m5f) Chance Du Roy 16/1 and Douglas Julian 25/1 It's a large field so worth a couple of EW shouts. 4:15 Cotton Mill 5/1 (this is the one I have most exposure to!) 4:50 Tour D'Argent 10/1 EW. 5:25 Umadachar And for the National itself Looks like Shrewdette is hedging her bets Tomorrow ... haven't had a look at the entire card but for the National I'm on 5, and Paddy Power are paying EW 5 places to worth a shot: Chicago Grey 14/1 EW Cappa Bleu 16/1 Killyglen 16/1 Seabass 22/1 (mainly because I'd like to see Katie Walsh be the first woman to win) and dear old Neptune Collonges 33/1 in case he's left out the front when it comes to the finish! Still no sign of that Abu Dhabi RBS deal But what is barclays doing this morning? Off a little, down 1.9p at 221.55p With earnings pressure receding, the impact of regulation (ICB) is one of the key reasons why Barclays trades at a significant discount to the sector and comparable European peers in our view. We believe that Barclays" valuations are more reflective of the downside risk to returns relative to other European banks and we see scope for continued improvement over the medium term through restructuring. With valuation at 0.6x P/NAV (adj. for pension & litigation), we prefer Barclays for value within UK banks with Standard Chartered as our overall top pick for growth. • Regulation: The ICB implementation white paper expected in Q2 2012 is a key update for the sector, although we believe that the broad framework of UK regulation is clear already. In our view, the progress of European commission proposals on resolution regime & bail-in is likely to remain in focus given the uncertainty over the long term unsecured cost of borrowing for the sector. Resolution regimes/ Bail in: We believe that the market is yet to discount the implications of the UK treasury's more accommodative approach relative to the ICB and to consider adopting European level proposals on resolution regimes & bail-in. Pursuing an isolated approach on this issue would have left open the possibility of impacting UK bank wholesale funding costs relative to the sector. Based on the recent draft EU proposal and our preliminary estimates, we see domestic UK banks requiring c£23bn of additional bail-in-able debt, with an EPS impact of 4%-7%. Impact on returns: Overall, Barclays" estimates the cost of implementing the ICB recommendations in the range of c£1-2bn relative to pre-crisis levels, which implies that current equity valuations are already reflective of the downside to returns. We expect RoNAV at 9.1% in 2013E, with further potential for improvement from restructuring & market share movements. Estimates unchanged: Management has indicated that it was encouraged by the start to the year with volumes up yoy in C&IB. We leave our estimates unchanged ahead of Q1 results, our current Q1 IB forecasts assume revenues down 1% yoy. Banks down across Europe. these Italian banks whip around, no? Intesa and Unicredit off another 3% today Not for the faint hearted. French banks are down too. Probably something to do with Anglo Saxon traders in London, eh Sarko? Instinctively short French banks BarCap are still underweight on Banks. Underweight Banks: Given the risks from deleveraging, a mild recession in Europe, peripheral sovereign stress, regulatory reform (e.g. bail-in bonds), the potential for earnings downgrades remains high. The banks sector looks fairly valued, even on a price-to-tangible book value basis. Thus despite the c. 6% underperformance of the sector since our downgrade in February 2012, we remain underweight. All seems fair enough. What can we do to show our even handedness - re UK/France etc Does Sarko know that we refer to the GBK? We ahvent had a Krona watch for a while Here's some stuff from BNY Mellon Regular readers of this briefing will be well aware that we hold significant reservations about GBP. With plenty of anecdotal information that the UK's regional economies continue to struggle, significant problems in parts of the housing market (4.4% of borrowers in the north were in arrears on their mortgages in Q4 of last year while 8.5% were in "negative equity" according to S&P) and a central bank that continues to favour highly accommodative monetary policy, it is easy to make a negative case for the currency. However, the simple fact is that the pound remains hostage to a rather different set of forces. Prior to 2010 it would have been relatively easy to identify the forces driving the currency with rising yields (the 10-year gilt provides a useful benchmark) feeding through into currency strength and vice versa. Indeed, this had proved the case since at least 2002 when the "carry trade" environment first began to establish itself in the FX markets. However, around April 2010 this relationship began to change with lower yields becoming increasingly associated with GBP strength instead. In part this could linked with the prospect of a new government (bringing with it a willingness to cut the deficit) encouraging investors to buy both GBP and UK government securities. However, a far simpler explanation is that this was the first sign of the UK becoming a safe haven for investors from the Euro-area crisis. This pattern has become even more apparent since the summer of last year with the July to January plunge in Gilt yields (from 3.15% to 1.95%) coinciding exactly with a major escalation of the crisis in Greece and with a decline in EUR/GBP from above GBP0.9000 to just above GBP0.8200. Equally the brief easing of tensions within the Euro-zone in early March (as investors focused on the details of the Greek bailout) saw Gilt yields back up to just above 2.4% and EUR/GBP to briefly revisit GBP0.8500. There's more of that, but you get the picture SAP have just had a bit of a bounce. Up 2.6% at €52.00 following a decent set of results. Operating profits up 7%. Given that Spain has been in the frame this week Notwithstanding the fact that euro big guns keep saying there's nothing wrong trying to keep spanish 10 year from breaching 6% again... Is there a "squeaky bum time" symbol on Markets Live? Should ask assanka to do an icon Cracking little software shop who built FT Alphaville The Ibex 35 hit a new three year low. The last time it was in this much of a mess was March 2009. Montesquieu - very interesting theme. thanks for that Well, let me share a chunky bit of analysis from Credit Suisse on Spanish debt sustainability Bear with me. Bit long this, but i think it is useful Spanish debt sustainability: a question of policy? Spain is clearly not Greece; we barely need to make the point. However, as we attempt to look through the recent volatility in Spain, what is worth highlighting is the difference in the relationship between the endpoint and the path to that point for each country. In the case of Greece, the (initial) endpoint was well-defined. Some may disagree, but it was clear early on that the country would need a debt restructuring. The question was one of the extent of the restructuring and its timing, which were to some degree a function of the path policymakers chose to take to that point. The situation in Spain, and by extension, in Italy and for the rest of the euro area, is very different: it is far from clear (to us, at least) what the endpoint is, and we would go so far as to say that it probably isn't yet defined. Rather than being a question of what path policymakers choose to take to get to the endpoint, in our view, the endpoint is itself likely to be a function of the policy path taken. And on current trends, this does not look particularly positive. Weak Spanish data and negative headlines are a given for Spain; the question is how much is now priced in and how big the downside risks are. As we've outlined in recent weeks, we are concerned on a number of fronts, which we will continue to explore in the weeks ahead. Debt:GDP - the trend is negative Spanish public debt to GDP remains relatively low compared to many other euro area countries. However, the trend is negative: government debt has been increasing rapidly over the last three years as outlined in Exhibit 6. Having declined since the advent of the euro to 44% in 2008, it has since increased to 78% at the end of 2011. Our concern is that this increase not only continues, but potentially accelerates. The question, as an increasing amount of debt falls under the central government, is how much the public debt/GDP ratio increases as a result of debt reclassification (which is potentially positive if it means the central government gains more control) vs. increases outright. In EST: How big is your firewall, 30 March 2012, we discussed regional debt dynamics in some detail; regional debt has been increasing fast and getting the regions under control is one of the government's clear challenges and potential points of slippage. As we outlined, regional debt maturities are front-loaded and this is also the case for ICO (Instituto de Credito Oficial) debt - the State's Financial Agency. ICO is government guaranteed and its debt currently accounts for roughly 7% of GDP - we would expect debt outstanding for ICO, and for the FROB (the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring), to increase in the months ahead. Per Spain's Finance Minister de Guindos, public debt to GDP is likely to increase by 10% in 2012 - in part as a result of the deficit, but also as a result of a €35 billion syndicated loan to help the regions and municipalities pay suppliers. Spain has completed 47% of its forecast bond issuance for 2012 (see our weekly Supply Line for more details), high relative to the majority of other euro area countries. As we have previously discussed at length (EST: Growing pains, 23 March 2012), this has been facilitated through the support of domestic financials - as outlined in Exhibit 7, foreign ownership of the Spanish government bond market has been falling rapidly, as has that of the Italian market as shown in Exhibit 8. The Spanish data are interesting since they provided both outright and net of repo: from Exhibit 7, foreign debt ownership was initially stable throughout 2008 - 2010 (the red line), but an increasing amount of domestic-owned debt was used to fund at the central bank (the increasing grey line during that period). This started to change in 2011, and foreign ownership declined from 45% at the end of 2010 to 33% as of January 2012, the latest point for which we have data. Ah, a fine example of the "X" is not "Y" genre. Good to see. Too long this - but let me jump to the conclusion The negative austerity feedback loop We believe the negative economic outlook and the risk of the government being unable to meet the aggressive deficit targets are relatively well understood. The potential negative implications of the current policy of austerity, required to meet the targets set at the European level, however, we do not believe are fully appreciated by policymakers, or reflected in spread levels. There is clearly the risk that the ever tighter measures required of Spain drag it into such a negative feedback loop that growth declines further, the targets are less attainable, additional measures are required and the situation deteriorates further, making a recovery even less possible, calling into question debt sustainability. The path chosen in the months ahead by policymakers could ultimately determine the outcome not only for Spain, but for the euro area as a whole. The implications of a failure of the austerity drive in Spain would extend far beyond Spanish borders given the inter-linkages within the euro area, with Italy just the first country likely to be in the line of fire. We are not convinced by the view that the ECB can continue to step in to restore market stability - clearly it will continue to have no choice but to act, again, should market stress continue, but the tools at the ECB's disposal are becoming more limited. A far better policy, in our opinion, would be to admit that the structural issues in the euro area are deep-rooted and will take years to fix. Providing Spain additional time to reach the deficit targets, with a clear focus on measures to stimulate growth, we believe would be a positive first step, providing the country with a much stronger chance to recover, and in doing so, restore its financial position to stability quicker than pure austerity can achieve. There is concern that if he wins the forthcoming French election, Hollande will be less market friendly. An interesting alternative to consider would be if he, combined with Monti, provides a counter-balance to the German austerity focus, and reorients policy to a more growth-friendly path. Be good to mention Repsol quickly. Things in Argentina heating up. Repsol attempting to stave off nationalisation of YPF, in which it has a 57.4% stake. YPF is throwing cash at the problem. This from RBC Capital Markets. YPF announced yesterday that it plans to invest $4.4bn in the province of Santa Cruz over the next 5 years. First Impression The announcement comes shortly after the warning (4th April) by the Province of Santa Cruz that it could pull the concessions from YPF for the Canadon Vasco, Los Pereles-Las Masetas and Pico Truncado-El Cordon blocks. Increased future investment has been a key demand from Santa Cruz, other provinces and the federal government, and we think the level indicated marks an important concession by YPF in response to the threats over its licenses, and may set an important precedent in its position with the Argentine authorities. However, it raises serious questions over the funding of capex if replicated elsewhere. In our "Headwinds in Argentina" note of 16th March, we argued that Repsol was likely to be obliged to invest (probably at lower than target returns), and that this increase in investment would absorb funds into potentially low return projects, and put the YPF dividend under pressure. In our view, the announcement on Santa Cruz investment is consistent with this thesis. It implies a potential increase in capex of nearly 50% even before additional increases for the Vaca Muerta, and absorbs 75% of the funds paid as dividends in 2011 by YPF. And now the politicians are getting involved. That sounds a tad panicky Spain's industry minister has come out swinging. Yesterday was supposed to be the day of reckoning. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was going to go on telly and put Repsol out of its misery. But she didn't. The stock is off 25% for 2012, and is likely to continue to slump until this is resolved. Here's BeyondBrics if you want more. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/04/13/ypf-no-news-is-so-far-no-news/?utm_source=ft.com/beyondbrics&utm_medium=twitter Otherwise, enjoy this slightly blasphemous picture of Repsol chief Antonio Brufau, knocked up by BeyondBrics. http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/beyond-brics/files/2012/04/Antonio-Brufau-YPF.jpg Thank you Duncan for helping out this week And thanks for joining us over ont he right You're very welcome. Was fun. Seeya - good weekend etc This entry was posted by Paul Murphy on Friday, April 13th, 2012 at 11:00 and is filed under Uncategorized.