Labour and local elections: The year of many votes AN UNPOPULAR budget, the botched handling of threatened petrol strikes, embarrassing reminders of the Conservatives" poshness - even before the brouhaha over plans to tighten internet surveillance, March was the government's worst month in office. So it is remarkable that Ed Miliband, the Labour Party leader, managed to end it almost as bruised as David Cameron, the prime minister. Mr Miliband had planned a victory rally in Bradford West after a parliamentary by-election there on March 29th. Instead, the previously safe seat was lost to George Galloway, a far-left, anti-war candidate from the fringe Respect Party. A former MP, he was evicted from Labour in 2003 for imploring British soldiers to defy orders. The 10,000-vote margin by which Mr Galloway won suggests that there was little Mr Miliband could have done. Bradford West is home to many Muslims who are implacably aggrieved about British interventions in the Middle East. But the Labour leader's complacency in the days before - including a staged visit to a high-street bakery to mock the government's contentious decision to impose a sales tax on hot snacks, during which the North Londoner looked as out of place as any Tory toff - has revived questions about his judgment. They will grow if Labour does not prosper in the local elections on May 3rd. London's mayoralty will be up for grabs, as will local councils in Scotland and parts of England. Mr Miliband launched Labour's national campaign with a vigorous speech on April 2nd. When asked in opinion polls which party they would support in a general election, voters now back Labour over the Tories by as much as ten percentage points. But the local picture is what matters in May, and it is less sunny. Ken Livingstone, Labour's candidate in London, is proving a handicap for the party there. Some say Mr Miliband should have tried harder to find a fresher candidate than the former mayor, who stands accused of insensitivity to the Jewish community and of strenuous efforts to minimise his tax liability. The Labour leader would be wounded if Boris Johnson, the Tory incumbent, managed to retain the post in a left-leaning city under an unpopular national government led by his own party. An even greater ignominy threatens Labour in the north. Glasgow City Council, a Labour redoubt for as long as Mr Miliband has been alive, is at risk of falling into the hands of the Scottish Nationalist Party. Expulsions and resignations have already deprived Labour of its overall majority there. Labour is likely to make headway in elections elsewhere. After all, the last time these councils were contested was in 2008, when a beleaguered Gordon Brown led a foundering national Labour government. The party could take over cities such as Birmingham and Plymouth. For the first time, a mayor will be elected in Liverpool and Salford, and Labour might win both. It matters for Mr Miliband, therefore, that there will be an unusually high number of mid-term polls in this parliament. The coalition's zeal for localism is spawning police and crime commissioners in 41 constabularies, to be elected in November. Mayoral elections could take place then too in cities such as Birmingham and Bradford itself, depending on how referendums on switching to that system go in May. Existing MPs are leaving Parliament to stand for many of these new posts, creating a round of by-elections. Local politics is unpredictable, doubly so when the elected offices are new. But the ultimate political outcome of this mid-term voting frenzy in the provinces could be the establishment of a new power base for the Labour right. The party's most prominent candidates are economic moderates who are tough on crime and welfare, such as Liam Byrne or Gisela Stuart (both interested in running for mayor of Birmingham if the job is created). This makes sense: Labour's heartlands outside London are culturally conservative, and voters are especially unlikely to countenance elected police commissioners from the party's liberal soft-left. That happens to be Mr Miliband's wing of the party, but he will gladly take electoral success in whatever form it comes.