Boris Johnson will win election but lose aides and majority The poll, by Survation for The Daily Telegraph, gives Mr Johnson an eight-point lead over his Labour rival, Ken Livingstone, after second-preference votes are counted. The poll, the second in two days to show this lead, will come as a relief to Tory strategists after weeks of disasters for the Government and an earlier survey showing the race effectively neck-and-neck. But the Tories face a collapse in their vote for elections to the London Assembly the same day. The poll says they will be reduced to just eight of the assembly's 25 seats, one short of the one-third majority Mr Johnson needs to pass his budget. Brian Coleman, Mr Johnson's fire authority chairman, seems likely to lose his assembly seat, the poll says. Mr Johnson's deputy mayor, Richard Barnes, is also at risk. The most high-profile Tory casualty could be Mr Johnson's policing chief, Kit Malthouse, whose lead over Labour in his assembly seat is within the margin of error. The poll, of 1,450 Londoners, is the first to measure specific voting intentions by assembly constituency, though pollsters cautioned that small samples mean there is a wider than normal margin of error. Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics, said: "There is now the chance of a classic American congress versus president-style gridlock." The poll also says that the UK Independence Party and the Greens will do better than expected, winning four assembly seats and 10 per cent of the mayoral vote between them.