FT Alphaville " You cannot be Syriza! If Greece ends the reform process it has undertaken, then I can't see that the respective tranches [of aid] can be paid out. Guido Westerwelle If Greece does not decide to stay in the eurozone we can't force them to stay in it. Wolfgang Schäuble If I had political responsibility, I would want to prepare myself for a plan B in which the eurozone is no longer necessarily composed of 17 members. Peer Steinbrück A selection of ifs there, from the German foreign minister and current and former finance ministers respectively. H/T Open Europe. So, are they bluffing? The Greek anti-bailout parties who might win June's repeat election - are they bluffing (more), about rejecting the EU-IMF programme? It does look like a repeat election, despite Pasok's attempt at coalition-building. Though here's an optimistic take on how an election might go, from the economics research team at Credit Suisse (our emphasis): As of now, the outcome of a new election is unclear. The Syriza party has strong momentum and if its attempts to form a pre-election coalition with other left parties are successful, it is likely that it will see its support increasing and challenge the first place position. On the other hand, the two traditional parties - New Democracy and PASOK -could, in fear of an ungoverned country, gain back a share of the "protest votes" and strengthen their position. Finally, the liberal pro-reform parties, that collectively had more than 6% of the votes, but are not represented in parliament (because each one failed to reach the 3% threshold) might decide to form a pre-election coalition, or their voters may migrate to the other mainstream parties. But it seems Syriza could also get a chunk of swing votes in a second election. For example, many supporters of the Communists (26 seats) are annoyed that the party is seemingly refusing to join any coalitions. There's also the question of whether a victorious Syriza would be bound by its policy promises - quick recap: debt moratorium, leave the bailout, no wage cuts, nationalise the banks but stay in the euro. From Credit Suisse: If a second election led to the creation of a left-leaning coalition (led by Syriza) which opted to reject the EU/IMF programme outright. Then, if the EU and IMF refused to accept that, further EU/IMF funds would not be disbursed. In turn, that would likely to lead to a renewed default on the new Greek bonds, prevent the recapitalization of Greek banks and the ability of the government to finance its primary deficit. That would also prevent the ability of Greek banks to fund themselves from the ECB. But we're increasingly interested to find out whether Syriza - if it does take a majority - could find some kind of formula to live with a continued programme. Clearly, Tsipras isn't a political ingenue. Plus, the Syriza plaform is self-contradictory: finding room for a halt to wage cuts arithmetically means finding more bailout loans to pick up the slack. And we really do want to reiterate that even the IMF was far from hostile to spreading out Greece's fiscal adjustment by another year, in its last bailout review. But... what are the costs of provoking a voter backlash or unrest? The latest figures show unemployment at a new record high of 21.7 per cent in February, with 53.8 per cent of 15-24 year olds out of work. And Greece's debt repayment schedule - i.e., opportunities for moratoria - remains merciless. A closing chart from Credit Suisse: Related links: UK bookmaker suspends betting on a Greek euro exit Reuters This entry was posted by Masa Serdarevic on Thursday, May 10th, 2012 at 16:21 and is filed under Capital markets, People. Tagged with Greece, Greek bailout, New Democracy, Pasok, Syriza.