It's the middle class, stupid For Democrats to win this fall they need to turn the focus of the national conversation from a straight referendum on the economy to a debate over which party is doing more to protect the middle class, according to a poll conducted in 58 swing congressional districts by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. President Barack Obama and House Republican Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) gesture while Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Cal.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) look on during a meeting of bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate to discuss working together on issues surrounding the economy and jobs in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Feb. 10, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza) Asked which party has "better positions and policies for improving the economy," 40 percent of critical independent voters said Republicans while 37 percent chose Democrats. Similarly, when people were asked to compare the economic positions of the two parties (Republicans: "we need to cut government spending, lower taxes rates on business"; Democrats: "we need to invest in education, modernize infrastructure") 46 percent said they agreed more with the GOP message while 44 percent backed the Democratic one. Switch the question to which party "do you trust more to look out for the middle class," however, and 49 percent of independents said Democrats as compared to 33 percent who named Republicans. "Instead of a purely "investment" message, Democrats need to leverage their advantage with voters in pursuing an approach to economic policy...that protects important priorities...while protecting the middle class, seniors and other groups that feel vulnerable," wrote Garin in a memo detailing the results obtained by the Fix. He added: "The contrast against Republicans" approach of protecting millionaires and big corporations must be explicit." The poll, which was in the field from April 26 through May 1, was supplemented by six focus groups conducted in March and April in Tampa, suburban Chicago and Riverside, California of swing voters. It was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The findings affirm that from the presidential level all the way down to the House the race will turn on whether the central question voters are asking themselves as they head to the ballot box is a) "Am I better off today than I was four years ago?" or b) "Which party is doing the most to look out for me?." Democrats - up to and including President Obama - almost certainly can't win a straight referendum on the economy. Majorities of the American public disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy and even larger majorities believe the country is headed off in the wrong direction. Worth noting: More than half of all House seats expected to be competitive this fall are in states not likely to be targeted in the presidential race - suggesting that the top-of-the-ticket influence in those places might be less than you might think. It's why Obama and his campaign team have spent so much rhetorical time and energy making the case that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's record in the private sector is illustrative of his desire to protect the wealthy rather than look out for the middle class. In Garin's polling, two thirds of respondents believe that the idea that Republicans "put wealthy/corporations ahead of the middle class" while 58 percent believe that Republicans" "economic policies favor wealthy, rich get richer." When it comes to the federal budget deficit, a major point of concern in the broader economic debate, the middle class message is again a winner for Democrats. Fifty one percent of people agree with the Democratic position on deficit reduction ("We need to make millionaires and big corporations pay their fair share in taxes to fund important priorities") while just 39 percent sided with the GOP position ("Emphasis should be on cutting spending, not raising taxes on anyone.") Among undecided voters, Democrats had a wide 58 percent to 30 percent edge on that question. All of this messaging data is set against an electoral backdrop in which middle class voters will almost certainly decide not only the identity of the next president of the United States but also which party will control the House and Senate in 2012. Check out this chart, which details which party won the middle class - defined by us as people making between $30,000 and $100,000 - in the last four elections. The numbers are plain. The party that wins the middle class, wins the election. But, the middle class is also very much a swing constituency. Since 2004, neither party has received less than 46 percent or more than 53 percent of the middle class vote. Not only are middle class voters up for grabs, they have also been a majority of all voters in the country over the past four elections. In 2010, voters making between $30,000 and $100,000 accounted for 55 percent of the overall electorate while in 2008 they comprised 56 percent. In 2006 (58 percent) and 2004 (59 percent) they were an even larger percentage of the overall electorate. Take those electoral realities and combine them with the findings in Garin's poll and you arrive at a very simple conclusion: Democrats up and down the ticket will spend the vast majority of their time between now and Nov. 6 portraying themselves as the true defenders of the middle class while simultaneously casting Republicans as protecters of the affluent. That's the way Democrats can win the economic argument, the middle class and the election.