The Presidential Cage Match - NYTimes.com David Brooks: Gail, people are always asking me who is going to win the election. They must know I don't have a clue. I think they just want to hear me say that their favorite candidate is going to win. Gail Collins: Wow, almost nobody asks me who's going to win. Mostly people just want to talk about the dog on the roof of Romney's car. I wonder if I'm being marginalized. David: I could bring joy to the world if I told Democrats that Obama is surely going to win and Republicans that it's certain to be Romney. But of course the code of the columnist dictates that my job is not to bring joy. It's to bring anger, frustration, depression and torpor. So let me say to you that I think Romney is more likely to win. My thinking is this: If nothing happens in Europe, then the odds are 50-50. But there's a strong chance that something very, very bad is going to happen to Europe. Gail: I'm averse to placing odds unless we're talking about the Belmont Stakes, which I do not think is going to be won by I'll Have Another, the horse that won the Preakness and Kentucky Derby. Do you know how often horses win the Derby and the Preakness and then flop in the Belmont? Constantly! But then we forget and the next year we're excited about the Triple Crown again. This is actually the only thing I know about horse racing. But I'm sorry, you were talking about Europe. David: There are a number of compelling people who are predicting Eurodoom over the next few months, but this Huffington Post piece by Simon Johnson and Peter Boone pretty well captures the full horror. Gail: I always appreciate the way you bring reading material to our discussions. Have you noticed the way I try to express my gratitude by providing historical context whenever when we're discussing political sex scandals? David: Separately, Mark Cliffe, the head of ING Financial Markets Research, forecasts that if the Greeks can leave the euro in an orderly way, then the recession in Europe will slow American growth to about 1.3 percent in 2012 and 1.7 percent in 2013. If the Greek departure is messier, spilling over to other countries and maybe the collapse of the whole project, then euro zone G.D.P. would fall by 9 percent the first year and the United States would be back in recession. Either scenario would swamp the presidential race. That is to say, Barack Obama could run the most brilliant campaign ever and it would still be swept away by the economic slide. No fault of his own. That's just the way the cookie crumbles. Gail: It is possible that Europe will struggle through. Also, that it will be terrible for Europe but not as bad as expected for us. Also, we could discover someone on the Romney team was trying to corner the market on drachmas. I'm just saying that all kinds of outside events could have an impact on the presidential election, but there's no point in worrying about them until they happen. We have more than five months to go. Barack Obama might personally attack and subdue a terrorist hijacker, saving an entire airplane full of people. Although since he isn't allowed to fly commercial, the people getting saved would mainly be members of the media, which could dilute the national celebration. David: But in the meantime, we have to go around pretending that the tactics, strategies and statements of the various campaigns matter. So I wanted to ask you about two salient issues. Gail: Is either going to be about politicians" sex lives or the dog Mitt Romney put on the roof of his car? Because there are days when I begin to wonder if those are my only areas of expertise. David: The first comes from a quotation in John Heilemann's well-reported piece in New York magazine on Obama's plans for his re-election race. One of Obama's election gurus puts it well. Romney is "the fifties, he is retro, he is backward, and we are forward - that's the basic construct." Gail: I'm not sure they ought to run against the "50s. It was a tough time for women but really easy to get a job. Did you know that back then, newspapers would advertise for reporters? And there was no such thing as an unpaid internship. David: Let me just note that the Obama campaign can't figure out a theme. Romney's the "50s, but he's also a modern financier. He's an opportunist who flip-flops but he's also a right-wing extremist in thrall to right-wing extremists? Obama flip-flops on Romney the way Romney flip-flops on health care reform. Mitt Romney is like Austin Powers, only from 1952. David Brooks Gail: I see a fairly consistent thought. Mitt is the opportunist who would happily turn himself into a right-wing extremist if it would get him elected. And I don't think you can discount the Bain Capital angle. Making unsuccessful companies efficient and successful is good. Buying loser companies, saddling them with debt and then walking off with a huge profit while the company expires like a beached flounder is bad. David: Personally, I agree that Romney is sort of "50s. He's like Austin Powers, only from 1952. I've always thought the big electoral problem with his Mormonism is not Joseph Smith, it's the Osmonds. Like Donny and Marie, he's counter-cultural. He doesn't seem to have experienced the cultural shift of the last few decades. No Lenny Bruce, no Richard Pryor, no Letterman, Seinfeld, Jay-Z or "The View." Gail: Do you think Mitt sees reruns of "Howdy Doody" when he closes his eyes? Or maybe it's "I Led Three Lives"? That was the McCarthy-era TV series about Herbert Philbrick "who for nine frightening years did lead three lives - citizen, Communist and counterspy." Maybe that would explain Mitt's conviction, against all rational evidence, that our greatest peril lies in Mother Russia. David: My question is: Is this good or bad? People turn back the clock all the time. Look at the Renaissance. Are Americans so disturbed that they want to reclaim a little wholesomeness, while obviously not turning their backs on the progress we've made on race, gender, cosmopolitanism and all the rest? Gail: Not totally sure about the "50s wholesomeness. At least part of it was a national agreement not to talk about the unpleasantness that might be going on all about one. And to show all married couples sleeping in separate beds. David: I think they might like a dose of retro-values. They'll eventually hear that Romney is the kind of guy who left his son's wedding reception early so he could bring food to someone who was recovering from breast cancer. If it's policy, then no one wants to go back to the "50s. If it's values, people might like that kind of back to basics. Gail: Well, I totally reject the idea that it isn't 21st century to bring food to a sick friend. And when it comes to Romney's "50s-type behavior, there's also the time he tried to pressure a single woman into giving up her unborn baby for adoption. David: The other large question is whether Obama's shift from hope to fear is a good thing. As Heilemann puts it, "For anyone still starry-eyed about Obama, the months ahead will provide a bracing revelation about what he truly is: not a savior, not a saint, not a man above the fray, but a brass-knuckled, pipe-hitting, red-in-tooth-and-claw brawler determined to do what is necessary to stay in power - in other words, a politician." Gail: Poor guy. When he goes all positive and hope-y, his base demands to know when he's going to get in there and fight. When he fights, he's lost his positive message. I don't think it's possible for a presidential candidate to have a successful campaign strategy in June, because whatever he's doing, we in the opining class will say it's wrongheaded. Because, you know, we've still got five months of talking to go. David: I understand why they are making this shift. But I think it's a mistake. They are neutralizing Obama's best asset - that he is different, authentic and personally admirable. Besides, I can't think of anybody who was elected with one persona and then re-elected with a completely opposite persona. It will creep people out. Gail: I think you're exaggerating the persona shift. But I've got a funny feeling we'll be seeing many, many Baracks and Mitts before this one is over. We just need to calm down and enjoy the summer. Plenty of time to go crazy about your favored candidate's strategy in the fall. David: So this is what we have to look forward to. A Republican candidate who is the second coming of Perry Como, a Democrat who is the personification of cage-match fighting, and it will all be determined by a bunch of spendthrift Greeks. Gail: This sounds like a great script. Maybe we could sell it to HBO. Or make them all superheroes and put it in 3-D. Robert Downey Jr. can play the Democrat. You pick the Republican. Maybe Gwyneth Paltrow as Angela Merkel.