China's Political Turmoil Won't Delay New Leadership BEIJING - Despite a spectacular political scandal and swirling rumors of high-level infighting, signs are that China's once-in-a-decade leadership change is still on track for this autumn, according to party insiders and observers. The change, which will take place at the Communist Party's 18th Congress, was scheduled last year for the second half of this year. Over the weekend, the party's flagship newspaper People's Daily reported in its overseas edition - which is written for foreign consumption - that this timetable will be met. The article came after some foreign news media predicted that the Congress would be delayed. "The People's Daily piece was meant to counter the rumors of a delay," said Wang Zhengxu, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in Britain. But then again, no one knows exactly when it will be held. Part of the problem is the broad window, anytime from July to December. In practice, the meeting is usually in autumn, ideally before the Oct. 1 National Day celebration. But that is the exception, and during the last leadership change in 2002, the Congress was held in November. "As long as it's done by December, it's impossible to speak of a delay," a Beijing-based political commentator and former senior policy maker said. There's no concrete signs of delay. Problems, of course, could still crop up. Much policy making in China remains a black box, but sources say disputes could arise over how to balance the need for an economic overhaul with social stability, which has been the watchword of the past decade. Retired leaders, such as former president Jiang Zemin, are also weighing in on the deliberations, trying to promote their own protégés or agendas. But by and large, almost no one seriously doubts that China's next president will be Xi Jinping, the current vice president, or that his prime minister will be Li Keqiang, and that they will effectively take power this autumn, with a final approval given at the annual session of Parliament next spring. Indeed, their position may have been strengthened by the fall of Bo Xilai, the mercurial provincial leader and member of the 25-member Politburo. Mr. Bo was suspended from the Politburo in April and accused by government media of abusing power. Officials also claim his wife was involved in the murder of an English businessman. The case set off widespread speculation of a power struggle at the top of the party, dividing members of the party's all-powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo. While that might have been the case initially, signs are that the very top of the party has agreed that Mr. Bo will be formally charged, with a report expected by July, party insiders now say. "The lower levels of the party still have to figure out exactly what the charges and details look like, but the leadership agrees on how his case should be handled," said a senior party member in the party's organization department. It's over. Mr. Bo's fall could help the transition by removing from the mix an ambitious leader who had hoped to join Mr. Xi and Mr. Li on the Standing Committee. Mr. Bo was a fervent champion of populist causes, but while some of his supporters within the party will still want a voice in the upper echelons, they will now be without their standard-bearer. Another hot issue among China's political classes is the exact size of the Standing Committee. Some have predicted that the new body might have 7 members, which would make it more efficient, while others say it could be expanded to 11, and thus be more representative of the party's various factions. As Chinese politics become more institutionalized, however, changing the size of such bodies becomes harder, according to Yang Jisheng, a veteran Chinese journalist and party historian. "It has been done and could be done, but if you do that, you have to change the expectations of different interest groups," he said. And then you make it very complicated, so it's unlikely. A final decision on these issues, he said, is likely to come this summer at the leadership's annual summer meeting in the seaside resort town of Beidaihe. That will be followed by a plenum meeting and then the Congress. But if these reports of rifts and divisions are overblown, important policy issues remain unresolved. Recent evidence of an economic slowdown point to the need for China to move away from its heavy dependence on exports and business investment to encourage more consumer-driven growth. Yet except for loosening money supply this past weekend, few changes seem in the offing. And despite repeated reports of political change - most recently in Monday's People's Daily - these seem to involve bureaucratic tweaks to the existing structure rather than any fundamental overhaul. "The real challenge isn't the political maneuvers, but the desire to reform," said a senior editor at a party newspaper. It's the content that's the problem.