Lowered Expectations on the Jobs Report What a difference one bad month - and one bad report - can make in expectations. A month ago, after three strong jobs reports, the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg was for a gain of 205,000 jobs in March. The low estimate was for 175,000 jobs, only 30,000 less. At that point, there was widespread acceptance of the idea that economic recovery was firmly established. Genuine pessimism was hard to find. The actual report said that only 120,000 jobs were created. Unsurprisingly, there is a lot less optimism now. The median forecast for the April number - to be reported Friday morning - is 160,000. But several expect a number at or below 125,000. The minimum forecast is 89,000. Last month's jobs report, coupled with a disappointing report last week on first-quarter gross domestic product, brought back talk of a double-dip recession. That seems unlikely, particularly considering the fact that corporate profits for the first quarter seem to be coming in strong. Of course, it is worth remembering that the official figure will be little more than a good guess. Last month's number will be revised, as it always is. It would be disturbing if the revision were down, given that recent revisions have been generally positive. What may be needed for a strong recovery now is something that no one seems to expect: a revival in government jobs. Last month, there were 200,000 fewer government jobs than there had been a year earlier. The Bloomberg consensus is for a loss of another 5,000 government jobs in April. In my Off the Charts column, which will go online Friday, I will look at the divergence in economic growth between the government and the private sectors. One number worth noting is that over the last two quarters, the private sector of the United States economy grew at an annual rate of 4 percent. If that were the number people focused on, there would be no talk about a slowdown. But the government sector, over that same period, declined at an annual rate of 3.6 percent. That left the overall growth rate at a much less impressive figure of 2.6 percent.