Cruising serenely to defeat - Telegraph And this is the problem confronting Labour's leader. Does he believe the underlying evidence of polls, or does he believe his own hype? This week a Labour insider invoked a phrase that has become something of a staple on the American presidential election circuit: "doubling down." It's basically the process by which a particular strategy is reinforced and replayed, regardless of whether it is actually working or not. "I'm worried he's going to double-down on the Liverpool speech," he said. On the surface there are some tentative signs that Miliband - who has been drafting the speech round his kitchen table as his children run amok - might be a little bolder. His advisers are adamant the flirtation with the new age rhetoric much beloved by their boss's posse of intellectual gurus is to be shelved. "We're going to be focusing on living standards, living standards and more living standards" said one. A shadow cabinet source involved in negotiations with Miliband's staff over sections of the speech was also upbeat. "It's been going well, they've been engaging," he reported, before adding the rider "but it's still hard to get Ed to make a decision." At the heart of Ed Miliband's strategy lies a belief that he is a man for our times. He has told friends that 2015 will be a "change election" and that David Cameron has permanently squandered the opportunity to inherit Tony Blair's mantle as the change candidate. In contrast, Labour's leader believes he has "captured the market in big ideas," according to one supporter. Positions on banking reform, Libor and - inevitably - producers versus predators, are all cited as examples of Miliband's ability to address the fundamental challenges. "Ed's been arguing we need big change," says a source, "and that argument has been won." But has it? There's sufficient evidence to make the alternative case - that the next election will not be a "change election" but a "security election" fought on economic and social terms. Recent polling confirms significant public shifts to the Right on issues such as welfare, immigration and public spending. And Conservative strategists are convinced the idea of placing a fragile economic recovery in Ed Miliband's callow hands will convince enough voters to stick with the devil they know. For all the upbeat talk, a number of Labour officials privately acknowledge they have made headway, but no breakthrough. To an extent, they feel trapped by their own rather modest recent political success. "It was hard enough getting people to face up to what was needed when we were trailing in the polls and Ed was being compared to Iain Duncan Smith" said one shadow cabinet source. Now that we're ahead and he's the party's new messiah it's impossible. One example of this is Ed Balls's recent abortive announcement on fiscal responsibility. Balls and his aides were actually attempting to firm up their stance, but were nervous of announcing something that would generate too explosive a backlash from the party, and in particular the unions. In the end they settled on a line-by-line post-election audit of spending totals, which was immediately pounced upon by David Cameron. "What Labour are basically saying is: 'Elect us to government and then we will have a spending review." " All successful political strategies essentially revolve around the same three things. A strong leader, a strong position on the key issue of the moment, and a strong and unified party. The danger for Labour is that at the moment they don't have the first, they don't have the second, and they only superficially enjoy the third. One of Ed Miliband's greatest achievements is said to have been his ability to unite Labour's disparate factions. And to an extent that's true. But that doesn't mean those factions have been disbanded, or even neutralised. I'm told the main fault line cutting through Miliband's party is no longer the traditional Left/Right divide, but a new split between those being branded the "small-l liberals" and "small-c conservatives." The liberals are said to be headed by figures such as Harriet Harman, shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry and shadow justice minister Sadiq Khan. They want a narrative built around a toxic brand of political correctness. Hard on men, soft on crime, soft on the causes of crime," was one party official's dismissive caricature. In the opposite corner are the "conservatives," those who are urging Miliband towards a more grounded political narrative, rooted in the working-class voters who turned their back on New Labour. Their standard bearers include Miliband's close adviser and former Oxford room-mate Marc Stears, new policy head Jon Cruddas, and Miliband's chief of staff Tim Livesey. Their aim is to encourage a more direct assault on David Cameron's Right flank, in particular the space they see opening up between Conservative moderates and the increasingly emboldened hard-Right Tory Young Turks. They are advocating "land grabs" in areas like immigration, patriotism, Europe and fiscal responsibility. To judge whether Labour's leader does intend to double down or pick up a fresh hand on Tuesday, people should watch closely for a couple of specifics. First, look at how he engages the Liberal Democrats. In the past he has assiduously courted Nick Clegg's disillusioned troops - but no longer. "There is no Lib Dem-first strategy," an aide told me pointedly. Second, look at what Miliband says about the economy. See if he uses the specific words "income freeze" and the phrase "the next Labour government will not have money to spend." These were his and Ed Balls's lines in January, and if he repeats them he is finally getting serious. If he opts instead for abstractions about "tough choices" on pay and spending, then it shows he is not yet ready to move out of the comfort zone his 10-point lead provides. My own suspicion is that while we may get a fig leaf or two to cover the nether regions of Labour's policy skeleton, Miliband will bottle it. That's because he sits perfectly equidistant between his party's two liberal and conservative factions: politically astute enough to appreciate the potential benefits of the conservative's arguments, but by instinct, a metropolitan liberal. And deep down he believes time and Coalition incompetence remain on his side. They're not, of course. But for Ed Miliband, for now, the very real prospect of defeat remains distant enough.