BP / Rosneft - chess time Over to you, BP. In the chess match that is the carve-up of Russian oil, the UK company has to respond to Rosneft's cash-and-shares offer for its 50 per cent stake in TNK-BP. BP is likely to get $15bn to $20bn in cash, plus a 10-20 per cent stake in Rosneft. It should push for as much of the former as possible. Shares in Rosneft would provide some benefits. The first is cash flow in the form of a dividend. Rosneft has promised to pay out 25 per cent of net income, which would give BP between $250m and $500m per year depending on the size of its stake. Nice, but it pales in comparison with the $2bn per year that BP could have got from TNK-BP in dividends. The second is far more significant. A stake in Rosneft would give BP a close relationship with its well-connected chief executive Igor Sechin. BP has already lost out once on potentially lucrative acreage in the Russian Arctic; a Rosneft stake would help to make sure it does not do so again. But in this respect there is little extra to be gained by holding 20 per cent of Rosneft rather than 10 per cent. The cash would be far more useful. BP's $38bn asset disposal programme so far neatly covers the $38bn it has set aside for the Gulf of Mexico spill. But there are more costs to come on that front - a settlement with the US government over penalties is pending, and that could cost a further $18bn. Cash from a TNK-BP disposal would cover that and leave something over for other uses such as cutting debt or buying exploration acreage. Having shrunk to pay for the Gulf accident, BP has to prove it can grow again. Cash would be more useful in that pursuit than a bigger stake in Rosneft. When it comes to playing chess with the Russians, BP was outplayed by its oligarch partners in TNK-BP too often. Investors should hope it has sharpened up its game.