Economic outlook: trade data in spotlight Third-quarter growth in the UK is likely to be difficult to read given the distortions created by the Olympics, but August data on international trade and industrial production, published on Tuesday, should give some indication of the economy's momentum. Industrial production in July, the month the Olympic Games began, showed output rising at its highest monthly rate in 25 years. This was explained by activity returning to normal after the dip in June due to the extra bank holiday. Recent surveys have suggested that industrial activity remained muted in August. That month's manufacturing purchasing manager index remained below 50, a level that indicates economic contraction. Meanwhile, factory orders during August slumped to their lowest since December 2011, the Confederation of British Industry revealed. Economists expect industrial production to have slipped 0.5 per cent month-on-month in August, leaving the annual rate down 1 per cent. Manufacturing production is likely to have fallen 0.7 per cent month-on-month. "This would return the level of output to this year's average and would suggest that a sustained industrial recovery is still some way off," said Vicky Redwood, at Capital Economics. Similarly, the narrowing in July's trade deficit is expected to have been shortlived as the balance between exports and imports begins to widen again. Consensus forecasts point to a trade deficit of £8.3bn, following July's drop to £7.1bn. Madhur Jha, at HSBC, said: "August is likely to see a broad-based fall in exports based on recent surveys of orders and continued sterling appreciation." Eurozone industrial production numbers for August are published on Friday, and while recent purchasing manager surveys have shown some easing in the rate of contraction, manufacturing activity continues to be weak. Over the month, industrial production is expected to have fallen 0.5 per cent, leaving the annual rate of decline at 4.1 per cent. Wednesday's Beige Book survey by the US Federal Reserve is expected to show that economic activity continued to expand slowly. After last week's better-than-expected US employment report, the Fed will be keen to see evidence of improving job creation across its 12 districts. The US trade balance on Thursday is expected to show weakening exports, which have been indicated by the slowing export orders component on recent purchasing manager surveys. The deficit is expected to widen to $44bn in August. China publishes its trade balance for September late this week and, given the concerns over slowing global demand on the manufacturing powerhouse's economic growth, this report will be watched closely. In August, the trade data showed imports fell 2.6 per cent annually, while exports rose at an anaemic 2.7 per cent, leaving the trade surplus at $26.7bn. Back in the UK and Tuesday's lively session of data releases continues with the RICS House Price Survey, which is forecast to show that activity in the housing market remains subdued.