The Motive and the Means: Did al-Qaeda Stage the Benghazi Attack? Esam Al-Fetori / Reuters The U.S. Consulate in Benghazi is seen in flames on September 11, 2012. Three weeks after the calamitous attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, a former Libyan intelligence chief tells TIME that he is convinced that the assault was a premeditated operation carried out by al-Qaeda's North African wing - an organization which until now was believed to have a stronger presence elsewhere in the region. It is not what I think. It is what I know," insists Rami El-Obeidi, who until late last year was in charge of intelligence for the rebel national transitional government that eventually overthrew Muammar Gaddafi. It is my very strong belief that this was an operation that was preplanned, and that it has been executed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Though weeks have passed, the political ramifications about what went so disastrously wrong in Benghazi on Sept. 11 continue to gather steam in Washington. The attack killed the American ambassador, Christopher Stevens - the first such death of a U.S. envoy in three decades - as well as two Navy SEALs and a fourth American. And although it occurred on the anniversary of the 2001 attacks, when security is typically on high alert, the assault by militants armed with rocket-propelled grenades seemed to take those inside the consulate totally off guard, leaving them trapped and outgunned in a building with inadequate protection. MORE: Libya's Flawed Attempt to Soak Up a Flood of Weaponry U.S. officials first speculated that the attack had been the result of a protest that had spun horribly out of control. On "Meet the Press" on Sept. 16, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said the attack had been "initially a spontaneous reaction" to the riots outside the U.S. embassy in Cairo earlier in the afternoon of Sept. 11, a "copycat" protest against the California-made video denigrating the Prophet Mohammed. Last week Republican Senators called for Rice's resignation over that assessment, which has since been rescinded by U.S. officials. Nevertheless, State Dept. spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters on Monday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton believes Rice "has done a superb job." Among Libyan intelligence experts, however, the early statements out of Washington seemed confounding, since in their view a terrorist attack had seemed almost foretold-and disconnected from the protests against the YouTube video. "It had absolutely nothing to do with the ridiculous film about the Prophet," Obeidi told TIME. He says he had in fact been deeply concerned about a possible attack in Benghazi, where the revolution began last year. "Don't forget, al-Qaeda had started to operate right from the beginning of the Revolution," he says, speaking from Benghazi, where the revolution began early last year. They have been in preparation mode and organized their ranks from the first week of March of 2011, and infiltrated many of the brigades. With al-Qaeda's ranks in place in Libya, Obeidi argues, terrorist operatives waited for the right moment to strike. The signal for action might have come on Sept. 10, when al-Qaeda posted a 42-minute videotaped statement by its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on jihadi websites, announcing that a top Al Qaeda commander Abu Yahya al-Libi - a Libyan - had been killed in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistanthree months earlier, and urging vengeance, by saying, "His blood urges you and incites you to fight and kill the crusaders." As soon as the video hit the Internet, an al-Qaeda strike in Libya seemed possible, according to Noman Benotman, the former commander of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which had been an al-Qaeda affiliate until breaking ranks with Osama Bin Laden in the 2000s. Speaking to TIME on Tuesday, Benotman says he told a Western terrorism expert - whom he did not name - that "if nothing happens by Sept. 13 we will be very lucky, but the next 48 hours there is avery high possibility. Benotman, who now runs the anti-extremist organization Quilliam Foundation in London says that he and that expert have since "met and he said, "you were right."" Drawing the links between the Benghazi attack and the actual structure of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM, is now a crucial task facing U.S.intelligence officials and investigators. Citing security sources in Benghazi, Benotman says that among about 50 people arrested after the attack were "Malians and Algerians," suggesting that the regional terrorist organization was involved. "Without a doubt there is a connection between AQIM and Libya," he says. They have opened channels, they have laid down the infrastructure for future attacks. In addition, there have been signs of large quantities of arms smuggled in and out of Libya in recent months, much of it from the giant arsenals left over from Gaddafi's dictatorship. In early September, Tunisian officials arrested arms smugglers on its border with Libya. And in late September, Algeria arrested several people ferrying massive quantities of weaponry from Libya,apparently headed towards Niger and Mali. With all the pieces in place for an al-Qaeda attack, Obeidi says he and others "expected something on Sept. There was the al-Libi death. And what could be more of a symbolic date than that? How U.S. officials were taken by surprise, or had been left unprepared, is part of the controversy now roiling in Washington. Benotman, who meets occasionally with U.S. officials and has become a regular guest at anti-terrorism gatherings, says he believes the administration has lately downplayed the threat of al-Qaeda, "as if it was dead these past 12 months," in order to highlight its success in fighting terrorism, including killing Bin Laden. For that reason, he believes the initial U.S. response about the Benghazi attack "was more of a political response than a fact-based response." Obeidi has a simpler explanation for why the U.S. apparently missed the threat of an attack: "There was a massive intelligence failure on behalf of our American friends," he says, adding: "However, I do believe that the Americans learn very fast from their mistakes." MORE: We Need More Engagement in the Middle East, Not Less WATCH: Libya to Citizens: Give Up Your Guns