Questor share tip: Patent expirations hurt AstraZeneca, but the dividend is probably safe However, investors will be very keen to hear what Pascal Soriot, Astra's new chief executive, says about the company's future strategy. There will not be a detailed point-by-point presentation of a definitive strategy. This is expected at a capital markets day, which is likely to happen in March. However, no major strategic shift is expected and Astra is unlikely to go down the GlaxoSmithKline route of branching out into consumer products. Innovation and scientific research will remain at its core. As he has already changed one aspect of shareholder returns, Questor reckons this makes it more likely that the dividend is "safe." A dividend cut would spook the market. However, there may be a change of policy. At the moment, it has "a progressive dividend policy, intending to maintain or grow the dividend each year." The market is expecting an update on this policy on Thursday. Convince the sceptics AstraZeneca is increasingly dependent on relatively few drugs, which is why it trades on a relatively low earnings multiple. Management need to convince the market that its strategic direction is sound over the next couple of months, which could lead to a rerating of the shares to a higher earnings multiple. The most important thing is for the drugs group to return to revenue growth - but this is unlikely for some time. There are risks. Sales of the blood thinner Brilinta has disappointed and this needs to be turned around. Bolt-on acquisitions are likely, which could destroy value and additional investment in research and development may not yield results. We need to see more Current consensus forecasts expect profits to fall by a third this year. Indeed, there is a great deal of caution in the analyst community over Astra's prospects, with almost three times as many analysts recommending investors sell the shares than buy. There are 17 analysts saying sell and 6 recommending a buy, according to Bloomberg data, with 17 others saying hold. The average price target is £29.41, below the current share price. However, this hasn't stopped the shares from rallying ahead of the statement to highs not seen since mid-2011. The shares are trading on an earnings multiple of 8 and investors should hold on to the shares ahead of the update.