Super Bowl Probability: Excellence Versus Momentum This year's Super Bowl provides a familiar narrative. One team is as complete as a team can be, very strong on both sides of the ball. The other team got hot at the right time, having upset two of the best teams in the league en route to the big game. Statistically, the 49ers have led the league almost all season. My system had them ranked as high as No. 1 after Week 5 of the regular season, and they remained among the top-ranked teams throughout the season, and only got better after Colin Kaepernick took over for Alex Smith at quarterback. San Francisco ended the season ranked right behind Denver in overall team efficiency, with the third-best offense and third-best defense. Early in the season, the Ravens benefitted from exceptional special-teams play, but special teams are notoriously inconsistent. Sure enough, even during Baltimore's playoff run, it allowed two special-teams touchdowns and several other long returns. The Ravens wouldn't be where they are today if not for some fantastically lucky plays. We all remember the 70-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of regulation at Denver in the divisional playoff game, but without running back Ray Rice's conversion on fourth-and-28 against San Diego, it's likely Baltimore would not have qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers have been consistently among the best, and the Ravens are hot. We've seen this movie before. The Giants of 2007 and 2011 proved that hot can beat the best every now and then. But hot streaks and momentum, with the exception of the improving health of some key players, is mostly luck. And by definition, luck can't be counted on to continue. I might be going off the deep end here, but I think fans and analysts alike are susceptible to the idea of momentum because our brains are geared to detect patterns from nature. Football teams and their win-loss records are very, very abstract constructions, but our brains aren't built for such abstractions. A boulder rolls down a hill and gains momentum. A spark sets a fire, and soon it has built into a blaze. The rains come and soon the river is rushing over its banks. Momentum is everywhere in nature, but applying it to abstractions like team win-loss records in a relatively small sample of football games is what I call voodoo analysis. Voodoo analysis is the application of apparently intuitive patterns beyond their natural settings. A football team is not a boulder rolling down a hill. It's not a river bursting through a damn. It's not a spreading fire. Our brains are continuously looking for patterns like these, and often see them even when they're not there. That's why we're better off taking a disciplined look at the numbers from the full season. Here we see a 49ers team that is superior or equal in nearly all key aspects. That's why the 49ers are your favorites for Super Bowl XLVII.