Venezuela's presidency: Brotherly love in the Bolivarian Republic IT WAS supposed to be a moment of triumph, the inauguration of a third six-year term for Hugo Chávez, secured by a comfortable victory in a presidential election last October. Yet on January 8th Nicolás Maduro, the vice-president (pictured left), wrote a letter to the National Assembly on Mr Chávez's behalf, stating in effect that he was too ill to appear before the assembly as planned two days later. Instead, he would be sworn in before the supreme court at a later date. With that, Venezuela entered a twilight zone of constitutional uncertainty and potential upheaval. Mr Chávez has been in a hospital in Havana for a month, battling "severe" complications after his fourth operation for an unspecified cancer. By the opposition's reading of the constitution, he should now be declared at least temporarily absent from the presidency. The speaker of the assembly, Diosdado Cabello (pictured right), should then act as interim president while Mr Chávez's health is evaluated. Mr Cabello, who is also vice-president of the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV), says that would amount to a coup, and that the opposition is seeking political advantage from the president's illness. Since Mr Chávez was already in office, the start of the new term is a formality, officials claim. The supreme court, which arbitrates on constitutional disputes but has not ruled against the government since 2003, said that the postponement was legal. Mr Chávez has turned over some powers to Mr Maduro. Technically, his term as vice-president (an appointed, not elected, post) lapses on January 10th, too. Mr Maduro denies that he is the acting president, though he seems to be. Despite the seriousness of Mr Chávez's condition - underlined by his inability to sign the letter to the assembly himself - the official view is that the president will make a complete recovery. No medical bulletins have been issued since Mr Chávez, a former army officer who has ruled Venezuela since 1999, fell ill in 2011. The nature of his cancer has never been revealed. The constitution provides for a medical board, appointed by the supreme court, to examine the president, but the court ruled that out. If he were to die, or the government to acknowledge that he is permanently incapacitated, the constitution mandates a fresh presidential election within 30 days. Before undergoing his latest operation, Mr Chávez named Mr Maduro as his chosen candidate in that event. The problem is that nobody else enjoys Mr Chávez's unquestioned authority over the PSUV. Many chavistas are on the far left. Others, including many in the armed forces, are more pragmatic, or are opportunists; some of this group have made fortunes from government. Mr Maduro is an ardent admirer of Cuba's Fidel Castro (as is Mr Chávez). Mr Cabello, who has influence in the army, is seen by the left as a closet right-winger and militarist. The PSUV's inner circle also includes Rafael Ramírez, who runs PDVSA, the state oil monopoly which provides the regime with much of its revenue; Adan Chávez, the president's elder brother who is an ultra-leftist; and Jorge Arreaza, the science minister and son-in-law of the president. After a meeting of this group in Havana, Mr Maduro said that he and Mr Cabello had sworn a unity pact in the presence of Mr Chávez. Since the president is in no condition to chair meetings, some analysts speculated that Raúl Castro, Cuba's president, may have done so. The Castros have a history of broking deals among competing factions of their leftist allies in the region. Both Mr Cabello and Mr Maduro deny that any such factions exist. But after Mr Cabello's re-election as speaker, Mr Maduro stressed the importance of maintaining "military-civilian unity." For Cuba's communist regime the survival of Mr Chávez's "Bolivarian Republic" (named for Simon Bolívar, Venezuela's independence hero) is vital. Cuba receives around 100,000 barrels a day of virtually free Venezuelan oil. Energy-poor Cuba has had its eye on Venezuela ever since Fidel Castro took power in 1959, but only got what it wanted there with Mr Chávez. With the Venezuelan president now incommunicado in a state-run Havana hospital, Cuba's leaders are in a strong position to influence the succession. Antonio Ledezma, the mayor of Caracas and a leader of the opposition Democratic Unity alliance, complained that the president had been "practically kidnapped by a foreign government." He demanded to know "who is giving the instructions? Is it Raúl Castro? Whose hands is the Venezuelan government in? It is not just the opposition that is worried. Many in the Venezuelan armed forces resent being bossed about by Cuban officers and intelligence agents. The notion that Mr Maduro might be a puppet of Havana is potentially damaging to his chances of consolidating his position as Mr Chávez's successor. Instead of an inauguration on January 10th, the government planned to rally the faithful and its foreign allies in a mass demonstration against a supposed opposition "coup plot." But it is leaving unattended more serious matters. A devaluation, needed to help bridge a huge fiscal gap, is now hostage to a resolution of the power vacuum at the top. Not for the first time under Mr Chávez, Venezuelans face shortages of staple products (such as sugar, flour, chicken and corn oil). But this time there is no Mr Chávez at the helm to defuse any popular frustration.