Poll to shine spotlight on Merkel's ally The German state of Lower Saxony will hold elections next Sunday, a vote that could set an uncomfortable precedent for Angela Merkel as she prepares for the country's general election in September. Opinion polls suggest there is a good chance that the chancellor's popular Christian Democratic Union will be swept out of government in Lower Saxony - thanks to the chronic weakness of its coalition partner, the centre-right Free Democrats. "Lower Saxony could prove a blueprint for the national election," says Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Mainz University. In both cases we could end up with a strong and triumphant CDU, which still does not have the power to govern thanks to the weakness of the FDP - and there's not really that much Merkel can do. Even Philipp Rösler, the leader of the Free Democratic Party, seems to acknowledge the pressure. "Germany is doing well and Lower Saxony is doing well - and it's our responsibility to make sure things stay that way," he exhorts a gathering of FDP faithful on the regional-election trail in Osnabrück, in the western part of the state. It could be a cry of desperation. Polling between 2 and 4 per cent nationally after getting 15 per cent in the 2009 general election, the FDP is threatening its ally's grip on power even as the CDU is polling 41 to 42 per cent, a five-year high. David McAllister, the half-Scottish CDU state premier, could be simply the first victim. In Osnabrück, Mr Rösler tells the crowd of 400 that he expects the FDP to continue in state government with the CDU - implying a four-point bounce over the next few days from 4-5 per cent in the last polls. The deputy chancellor and economy minister stresses the party's commitment to low taxes, fiscal discipline, and a stable currency. He points to Stefan Birkner, state justice minister and state party boss, and says: "Our Lower Saxons are genuinely liberal, they're genuinely likeable." Unfortunately for Mr Rösler, 20 months at the helm of the FDP have offered little sign that niceness counts. The youthful 39-year-old, born in Vietnam and adopted by German parents, is respected for his polite ways. But this has not stopped the sickly party he took over from declining to near-fatal levels. Free Democrats whisper that he is not up to the challenge of widening the appeal of the party beyond the tax-cutting mantra it has espoused for the last 15 years. "Lower Saxony is a test whether a structurally challenged FDP can survive with an uncharismatic leader," says a party colleague. The voters of Osnabrück seem to think it cannot. Arthur Krauss, 21, sells espresso in the pedestrian zone. The FDP's just not relevant. That deregulation thing might have been OK 30 years ago, but other stuff is important now. Pensioner Helma Kempf has switched from FDP to CDU. Rösler can't get things done. She tries to name the FDP's state-election front man. "Is it Birker?" she asks, omitting an "n." Behind closed doors, Free Democrats are preparing for the worst. They expect Mr Rösler to quit as party leader if the FDP fails to make it back into state government in Lower Saxony. The man most want to step in is Rainer Brüderle, the party's 67-year-old leader in the Bundestag. He in turn could team up with Christian Lindner, the FDP's 34-year-old star in the North Rhine-Westphalian state parliament. In Osnabrück, Mr Rösler makes a typically nice, though risky gesture - he has agreed to appear with Mr Brüderle. The party leader is fluent and witty. But his rival's mix of basic economics and beer tent is better. "Comrades," Mr Brüderle addresses the absent Social Democrats, "Leave Karl Marx in his museum." Watching the unofficial face-off is Mario Stratmann, an FDP voter who says he will probably vote CDU in Lower Saxony. He liked Mr Brüderle. "His speech was more intense," says the 41-year-old. There's been a lot of to-ing and fro-ing in the FDP. If it remains weak, I'll continue to lean towards the CDU - but I'm here, still willing to be persuaded otherwise. Oskar Niedermayer, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, says the party's "only chance" now is new people at the top. Brüderle would have a chance of re-energising the FDP's traditional base, while Lindner would stand for the future. Even then, Ms Merkel's problems might not be over. Were the FDP to scrape into the Bundestag, with some 5 per cent, it could still fail to deliver enough seats to keep her in power, but hold just enough to form a majority with Social Democrats and Greens. "Brüderle and Lindner would no doubt open the FDP for a three-party coalition with SPD and Greens," says Mr Niedermayer. That is another danger for Merkel.