2 Big Changes Make Derby More Difficult to Predict The Kentucky Derby, one of the most tradition-bound institutions in sports history, will leave the gate on Saturday without two of its time-honored customs. The changes are both good and bad, but they both make the winner more difficult to predict. In recent years the 20 starting spots included at least a half-dozen or more horses that had sewn up qualifying spots as 2-year-olds by earning grade stakes money in six- and seven-furlong races normally won by sprinters. Most often they ran out of gas at the half-mile pole and panted their way to the finish line. But they also often set blistering paces that set the race up for the more traditionally bred classic horses with more endurance. This year the new point-earning system instituted by Churchill Downs produced a much more competitive field that qualified by finishing in the money in tough 2013 Derby prep contests like the Florida Derby and the Wood Memorial. As a result, to the chagrin of professional handicappers, more than half this year's field has a legitimate chance to win. One downside of the new system, however, is that it also resulted in the absence of the filly-versus-colts rivalry. Over the years the presence of such outstanding fillies as the ill-fated Eight Belles and the famous Derby winners Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors produced a broader fan interest and better female participation at the betting windows. This year at least two of the favorites in Friday's Oaks, Dreaming of Julia and Midnight Lucky, appeared to be the equal of colts and might have been in the field had they earned the necessary qualifying points by competing against colts in the preps. In the end, they both lost to Princess of Sylmar, at 38-1 the second-longest shot in the field. Another longstanding tradition, this one well departed, is the horde of needle-wielding track veterinarians allowed to administer race-day medications, the diuretic furosemide and the painkiller phenylbutazone, which every starter will be given four hours before the race. As the sport staggers under pressure to ban these drugs, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission tried to ban both drugs on race day but found little if any support from other states or horsemen's organizations. But it did succeed in its effort to limit the administering of any race days drugs to state-employed and supervised veterinarians. Now at least there is a record of all substances administered in the final hours before the race. John Ward, the former Kentucky Derby winning-trainer who is now director of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, believes banning the individual veterinarians from treating horses close to the race goes a long way toward assuring a more level playing field. And this alone wipes out another important Derby tradition. Never in anyone's memory could the Kentucky Derby have been accurately described as a level playing field. For example, by all accounts it was in the 1964 Derby that the first dose of the now legal drug furosemide (Lasix or Salix) - then illegal - was administered to the Derby starter Northern Dancer, who went on win in the then-record time of two minutes, and eventually become one of the most important Thoroughbred sires in modern times. Nearly a half century later, furosemide remains illegal on race day in every racing jurisdiction except North America. That it is clearly performance enhancing is attested to by the fact that every starter on Saturday will be on it, even a half-dozen who raced as 2-year-olds without it. One horse, the Arab-owned Lines of Battle, will be running on it for the first time, a circumstance that often moves a horse up a length or more. Furosemide is administered ostensibly to reduce the risk of exercise-induced bleeding in the lungs, which it does. But critics of the procedure, led by industry reformers seeking federal legislation to outlaw race-day medication, believe that its powerful diuretic effect results in longer-term bone damage and may well mask other illegal performance enhancers. For certain its use in the Kentucky Derby and the other classic races has isolated United States racing from that of the rest of the world and has contributed greatly to a global perception of drug abuse and cheating on American tracks. With the arrival of each Kentucky Derby season comes new rumors of widespread use of undetectable designer drugs that give some trainers an edge over others. This year the backside underground is rife with reports of a high-powered Mexican form of clenbuterol, a bronchodilator that aids breathing, and a thinner, most undetectable version Epogen, which basically is a transfusion of red blood cells hard to distinguish from those naturally produced. Still, because of Ward's new rules and greatly enhanced security which went into effect three days prior to the race, bettors and handicappers can rest assured the Derby field this year is closer to level than ever before. At the same time, predicting the outcome has become more difficult than ever - and it was already hard enough.