Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job Janet Yellen has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, but the choice belongs to one man - Barack Obama - and the selection process can be hard on favourites. As the Fed's current vice-chair, and an architect of its strategy to purchase assets and keep interest rates low until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 per cent, Ms Yellen is the obvious choice to succeed Ben Bernanke when his term expires at the start of 2014. "The overwhelming consensus - and I think correctly so - is that it will be Janet Yellen," says Chris Krueger, senior policy analyst at Guggenheim Partners in Washington. She would be a historic appointment as the first woman to lead the Fed, he notes, in addition to her extensive economic credentials. But presidents usually have more on their minds than just the technical suitability of a candidate and the obvious next-in-line does not always win out. "If you want continuity, then in my view Mr Bernanke is the best choice, and the closest substitute is Ms Yellen," says Roberto Perli, a former Fed staffer and now an analyst at Cornerstone Macro in Washington. I give her the edge but nowhere near as high a chance as the market is assuming. Mr Bernanke's own appointment in 2005 was a case in point. There were several candidates that year. According to people involved, then-President George W. Bush leaned towards Martin Feldstein, a former economic adviser to Ronald Reagan. But Mr Feldstein was a director of the insurance company AIG, which restated five years of financial results that May after an accounting scandal. Then in October, Mr Bush ran into a huge backlash after nominating his lawyer Harriet Miers, who later withdrew, to the Supreme Court. All that gave Mr Bernanke - the technocratic, relatively non-partisan choice - added appeal. Mr Bush nominated him on October 24, 2005. There are a few ways the choice of Ms Yellen could go off track. One is the economy, and with a decision not likely until the late summer or early autumn, there is still a long way to go. The single most probable alternative to Ms Yellen is Mr Bernanke himself, and if the economy took a turn for the worse, Mr Obama might try to persuade him to stay. The president has every incentive to do so: as a Republican appointee, Mr Bernanke gives him easy monetary policy at a safe political distance. Mr Bernanke has declared himself dispensable - "I don't think I'm the only person in the world who can manage the exit," he said at his most recent press conference - and long-time colleagues say it has been a weary eight years in the hot seat. But a direct presidential appeal is hard to resist. Another possibility is that the president, as he has often done, chooses someone from his inner circle for the Fed job. That would point to Tim Geithner, who has the credentials as former Treasury secretary and New York Fed president, but disavows any interest and has just moved back to New York. Ms Yellen's Democratic credentials are strong, however. She chaired Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers from 1997 to 1999, serving alongside Gene Sperling, who was then the top economic official in the White House - as he is now. In February, she gave a speech that focused heavily on the damage done by unemployment, at a conference sponsored by America's trade union federation. In theory, Ms Yellen could face opposition from Republicans in the Senate, who think Mr Bernanke is too dovish on monetary policy and are likely to regard her as even worse. But the status of historic first female nominee would protect her and she might have an easier ride than other candidates, such as Mr Geithner, or even Mr Bernanke. "The West Wing would relish a full-blown filibuster of Janet Yellen," Mr Krueger says, pointing out that the Senate confirmed her as Fed vice-chair in 2010 with only modest opposition. That is a losing battle for Republicans. Ms Yellen has a clear edge over alternatives, such as former vice-chairs Roger Ferguson, who brings private sector experience as chief executive of TIAA-CREF, a financial services company, or Donald Kohn, whose knowledge of the institution is unrivalled. But much could change once the selection process gets under way. Janet Yellen, vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, (66) Policy continuity: ★★★★★ Senate confirmation: ★★★★☆ Economic knowledge: ★★★★★ The only obvious questions about Ms Yellen are her dovish reputation - which could draw GOP opposition - and her limited exposure to President Barack Obama. But who would stand in the way of an eminently qualified candidate to become the first female Fed chair? Timothy Geithner, former Treasury secretary, (51) Policy continuity: ★★★★☆ Senate confirmation: ★★★☆☆ Economic knowledge: ★★★☆☆ Mr Obama has a reputation for putting close aides in top jobs and few are closer than Mr Geithner. He may not want the job, however, and his role the 2008-09 bailouts would ensure a painful passage through the Senate. Ben Bernanke, current Federal Reserve chairman, (59) Policy continuity: ★★★★★ Senate confirmation: ★★★★★ Economic knowledge: ★★★★★ If Mr Bernanke wants to stay, then he is the obvious choice - but most signs are that he is ready to step down. Lawrence Summers, former White House economic council director, (58) Policy continuity: ★★★★☆ Senate confirmation: ★★☆☆☆ Economic knowledge: ★★★★★ As architect of Mr Obama's fiscal stimulus, the Senate could be a roadblock for Mr Summers, because Republicans would assume - correctly - his dominance of the Fed once he got there. Donald Kohn (70) Policy continuity: ★★★☆☆ Senate confirmation: ★★★★☆ Economic knowledge: ★★★★★ Mr Kohn spent a career at the Fed and he would be a hugely popular choice with its staff. But his age may count against him, while as vice-chair from 2002 to 2010, he was cautious about communication changes the Fed has since adopted. Long-shot candidates: Roger W. Ferguson, Federal Reserve vice-chairman 1999-2006, (61). Alan S. Blinder, Federal Reserve vice-chairman 1994-96, (67) Stanley Fischer, retiring as Bank of Israel governor on June 30, (69).