Ukip surge shows that the "clown" Farage may have the last laugh Nigel Farage's party speaks to a constituency lost to the main parties, writes Robert Ford By the time Nigel Farage settled into the Marquis of Granby for his first lunchtime pint on Friday, it was already clear that he and his UK Independence party had achieved something extraordinary. Initial results suggest Ukip has secured in excess of 20 per cent of the vote in Thursday's local elections, with more than 100 councillors elected. This is an unprecedented performance in English elections for a party outside the Westminster establishment. Ukip was dismissed as "clownlike" by Tory ministers only this week. In political terms, Ukip's success clearly hurt the Conservatives most. While Ukip's gains have come at the expense of all three established parties, they consistently damage the Tories more than the others. This week, most Ukip seats were taken from the Tories. In part this reflects the geography of Thursday's elections, which were mostly fought in rural shires, but it is also a pattern found in polling: Ukip draws more recruits from the Conservatives than any other single source. However, these recruits are not the wealthy, rural Bufton Tuftons of Private Eye stereotype. Ukip's demographic base is older, often economically struggling, blue-collar workers with low education levels. These are socially conservative voters, alienated by the liberal values of today's university-educated middle-class elite. They are angered by immigration. These voters once had a natural home in the party of Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit, but feel marginalised in Prime Minister David Cameron's party, which wants to broaden its appeal to younger graduates, ethnic minorities and working women. The revolt of the working-class social conservatives presents Mr Cameron with a dilemma. In the longer term, Britain is becoming steadily more diverse, socially liberal and middle-class, so it makes perfect sense for him to align his party with these trends. No party can hope to remain relevant in the long run by talking only to yesterday's Britain. In the short term, however, modernisation alienates voters who regard social change as threatening and see a Conservative party indifferent to "Britain going to the dogs." With Ukip now surging among such voters, their sympathisers on the Conservative backbenches, who have always viewed the Cameron project with suspicion, will be arrmed with evidence that it is damaging the party's short-term electoral prospects. We can expect this view to spur further parliamentary insurrection by what is already the most rebellious bloc of Tory government MPs in living memory. While the general (but slow) direction of travel in British society is towards educated middle-class liberalism, Ukip speaks for a very broad swath of the electorate on two issues in particular: immigration and Europe. The average British voter is very negative about the effects of high immigration levels over the past decade and broadly sceptical of Brussels. Taken together, these two issues create a noxious problem for Mr Cameron: in the areas where Ukip's views resonate with the electorate, he finds himself unable to deliver what the voters want. Many Tory MPs, and a lot of Conservative backers in the business community, would strongly oppose a move to leave the EU, which would bring with it a great deal of disruption and uncertainty. Yet, without a move to leave the EU, Mr Cameron also finds himself unable to deliver sharp cuts in immigration - in particular it is impossible for him to reduce the migration of lower-skilled workers from eastern Europe, the focus of increasing public concern. While the election results clearly leave the Conservatives on the rack, Ed Miliband should not view Ukip's rise complacently. Its success among older working-class voters also poses problems for the Labour party. The Ukip surge in Thursday's local election overshadows an anaemic recovery for Labour from its appalling 2009 performance, which was its worst in a generation. Mr Miliband, the party's leader, must surely find it a concern that many voters at the sharp end of Britain's weak growth and austerity - working-class people struggling on low incomes - are more impressed by Mr Farage's prescription than by his own. Some time in the mid-2000s, Labour seemed to lose the ability to speak to older working-class voters. The evidence from this Thursday is that it has yet to regain it. So neither the Tory nor Labour high commands will be enjoying the bank holiday sunshine very much. But is Ukip's surge a swift midterm kick in the shins of the political elite, or the start of a more lasting shift in politics? It is too soon to be sure. On the one hand, Ukip's performance on Thursday exceeded expectations, and the party showed for the first time an ability to win in domestic, first-past-the-post elections. This suggests it now has the organisational capacity it once lacked. Activists matter in politics, so the big surge in the party's membership may be the most important sign that it is here to stay. On the other hand, the electorate that went to the polls in Thursday's low-turnout shire elections is not very representative of the voters we will see in 2015: it is much older, whiter and more rural. It is hard to imagine Mr Farage doing very well among the much younger, more diverse and more urban electorate we see in general elections. The electoral system will also still be a formidable hurdle. It will be hard for Ukip to take more than a handful of seats in the general election, and where it falls short its likeliest effect will be to boost Labour prospects. The Tories will be well aware of this, so we can expect plenty of "vote Nigel, get Ed" leaflets circulated by their candidates two years from now. So a purple surge in 2015, though possible, remains difficult. 2014 is another matter, as British voters will go to the polls to elect members of the European Parliament. This is Ukip's big home fixture, and the elections are decided on a proportional representation system, making it much easier for the party to convert votes to seats. Winning a chunk of council seats is a big achievement, but topping the poll in a nationwide election would be an order of magnitude bigger. So to those debating the Ukip earthquake this weekend, I would say this: you ain't seen nothing yet. The writer is a lecturer at Manchester university and author of the forthcoming "Revolt on the Right"