Oil markets gauge emergency Syria release Behind the weaponry Barack Obama is assembling around Syria is a shield: America's strategic petroleum reserve. The US government's emergency crude oil stockpile offers the president some reassurance over the risk of a sharp jump in oil prices, as he steps up efforts to persuade Congress to approve a military strike against President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Benchmark Brent crude prices have risen some $5 per barrel since August 21, when a chemical weapons attack killed 1,400 Syrian civilians, to more than $114 on Monday. Many oil traders are nervous that a US military strike could have wider regional repercussions, from attacks on pipelines in neighbouring Iraq to trouble in the Gulf from Iran, an ally of Syria. Against those threats, the SPR offers a 696m-barrel countermeasure. When the last emergency release was announced in June 2011 - during the Libya crisis - crude prices tumbled $9 in two days. Analysts are now debating the odds and impact of another. Their consensus: low for both, but if the Syrian crisis escalates, bets are off. Authorised in 1975, the reserve consists of crude parked in salt caverns near the refineries lining the Gulf of Mexico. It forms 44 per cent of a broader network of emergency stocks held by the 28 members of the International Energy Agency, the western countries" oil watchdog. Unlike in 2011, when the IEA co-ordinated a 60m-barrel emergency stocks release, half from the US reserve, the agency as yet sees no need for a release, calling the oil market "adequately supplied." By some measures, the market appears in better shape than in June 2011, when the Libyan civil war had cut off 1.5m barrels per day of high-value light, sweet crude. The release that followed took place when the northern hemisphere's "summer driving season" increased refineries" appetite for crude. By contrast, today, that season has just ended. Yet, from another perspective, the oil market is tight. Problems in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria, as well as sanctions on Iran, have removed more than 3m b/d from world production, estimates Barclays. Andy Lipow, a Houston-based consultant, says: "We have a Libyan supply disruption that is nearly as bad as it was in 2011, but you don't hear anyone asking for an SPR release at the moment." Oil prices are also elevated, with benchmark Brent crude hitting a six-month high above $117 in late August. While the IEA explicitly states that "prices are not a trigger for a collective response action," the US is more comfortable with using its reserves to curb prices, analysts say. There is a widespread view that Brent at $120-$125 per barrel would be the trigger for the administration to think seriously about using the SPR. The logistical issues raised by a release have changed radically in recent years. Philip Verleger, an energy economist, points out that when the SPR was created the pipeline network was generally orientated to carry oil from the Gulf Coast to refineries in the Midwest. Now pipelines mostly carry oil from onshore fields to the coast, making it harder to transport crude from the SPR caverns to refineries where it would be needed. Refiners on the coast already import very little sweet crude, and import sour crude to meet specific requirements. Some believe an SPR release could create a localised glut but have little impact on internationally traded crude. To help that, the administration could suspend Jones Act restrictions, which compel oil traded between US ports to be carried in US-registered vessels. That would make it easier for tankers to ship crude from the Gulf of Mexico region to the east and west coasts, as it did in 2011. The government could even suspend the ban on crude exports that has been in place since 1975. Even if Washington takes those measures, though, betting on medium-term price moves following a release will be risky. Two weeks after the 2011 announcement, oil had bounced back to where it was before.