Tony Abbott is the right man with the right experience IF TONY Abbott is elected prime minister tomorrow, he will come to the office with arguably more widespread parliamentary experience than any of his predecessors in the past 40 years. Abbott would be taking the job just shy of 20 years in Parliament. It's about the same length of time served by Gough Whitlam, Malcolm Fraser, Paul Keating and John Howard. While Bob Hawke was in Parliament for only three years, he was at the centre of political and union debates for two decades. Kevin Rudd was the departure from the norm, winning in 2007 after only nine years in Parliament. When Julia Gillard replaced him, she'd been around 12 years. Abbott has nine years as a minister under his belt, most of it in Cabinet, as well as being Leader of the House of Representatives and Opposition Leader for the past four years. It's a similar CV to Howard who was a minister for eight years while Keating also had eight years as a minister but had never been a party leader. Whitlam had longer running the Opposition but was never a minister. The last person to become the PM with more years in the ministry than Abbott was Billy McMahon at the fag end of a Liberal era. He had 20 years on the front bench, although the dysfunction of the Liberals during his ill-fated time as PM probably more closely resembles Labor's recent efforts. Abbott started as the accidental leader in 2009, winning a three-way ballot against Malcolm Turnbull by one vote in a contest many expected to be won by Joe Hockey. His deputy, Julie Bishop, describes him as the captain-coach who not only plays the hardest on the field and is typically best on ground but inspires his team mates off it. Abbott believes the Opposition is as well prepared, experienced and competent as it could be with 16 senior figures who were ministers in the Howard years. Yet it really is a different ball game to be PM. Like most Opposition leaders Abbott has set himself a busy first 100 days which will take him up to Christmas. He needs to watch out for the first-term blues. It hit Howard in his second year and he nearly ran off the rails. It swamped Rudd and he was executed by his own MPs. Abbott has seen all of that and should expect it will hit him too. How he deals with it will determine what sort of prime minister he will be. For all the talk about cuts, the first difficult decision will be to spill political blue-blood in his own party room. Abbott has more shadow frontbenchers than allowed and some talent on the backbench. How he manages it will be an early test for Abbott. He will also have to decide who will run his commission of audit. Peter Costello did it for the Queensland government and knows the federal Budget pretty well. Perhaps the most symbolic appointment Abbott will make in his first six months will be selecting the next Governor-General. Given it will cover the period that marks the centenary of the Anzac landing at Gallipoli, General Peter Cosgrove is a hot favourite. One of other big jobs will be the Speaker of the House of Representatives. That is a very prestigious and well-paid job and might help Abbott find space in his frontbench. Some have tried to shift Kevin Andrews into the post but he's expected to be Families Minister. Bronwyn Bishop may be in line. On the Labor side, post-election leadership talk has already begun. Most Labor insiders believe Rudd will lose tomorrow. Some always believed that would happen, others had been hopeful "Ruddmentum" and his popularity would win the day. The argument in Labor ranks now will be, did he do better than Gillard would have done? Under new rules, Labor's leadership will be declared vacant after a loss. Some believe if Rudd holds his own seat he may seek to remain leader. Others say the Rudd-Gillard era must end and would like him to leave the Parliament. The leadership frontrunners seem to be Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese, although neither is a declared starter. Albanese has been in Parliament for 17 years and will meet the 20-year rule at the next election. Shorten has been there only for six years. Chris Bowen and Tony Burke, both with nine years' experience, are not expected to run this time, although Bowen would be favourite to be shadow treasurer. Some MPs desperately want to make sure there is a contest so they can set the precedent of a ballot involving rank and file members. But for some the pessimism in Labor has already set in. They say the first leader after losing power never leads the party back into government. They see it as a poisoned chalice. Phillip Hudson is national political editor