Impact of MOOCs real, but not all positive THE emergence of Massive Open Online Courses will pose a "huge" and potentially "threatening" challenge" for universities and other higher education business models, a major UK government report has concluded. Amid widespread debate over whether MOOCs represent a fundamental change for higher education, or whether it is hype and a``victory of packaging over content," an extensive literature survey for the UK government found that the consensus was that the disruption posed by MOOCs is real. ``MOOC formats will pose huge challenges for existing higher education institution business models, for institutions at all levels, for pedagogy, and for international educational demand," the report 'The Maturing of the MOOC' said. It concluded that all analytical reports foresee MOOCs causing ``dramatic and imminent change" and represent a ``tipping point" for higher education. ``MOOCs are heading to become a significant and possibly a standard element of credentialed University education, exploiting new pedagogical models, discovering revenue and lowering costs," the report said. But the report also notes that most analyses to date have focused on the impact on universities rather than on learners. The report notes that the high student drop out rates from MOOCs is raising concerns that the learning environment is challenging and may discourage many students. `Most studies show that the MOOC experience demands skill and aptitude in online social networking, and that these baseline capabilities are not widely enough shared for MOOCs to present a realistic format for many learners," the report said. It noted this may be an equity issue as less network-savvy students are left out. The report details an analysis this year by Edinburgh University of student behaviour in courses it ran through Coursera. Out of 309,628 enrolments just over half were active participants. Only 11 per cent of initial enrolments went on to earn a statement of achievement. While attrition are high it says low completion rates are irrelevant -- at least at the moment -- given there are no penalties for exit or entry and students who don't complete are not wasting money. ``Lapsing from MOOC enrolments is simply not a significant decision," the report said. At the same time, students who don't engage strongly or drop out may still benefit from the course. It notes that what is lacking is an agreed satisfactory system for measuring the quality of MOOCs from the learners' point of view. The report says positive press coverage of the MOOC phenomena has generated a bubble of hype that may be driving a ``herd mentality" among institutions that are rushing to produce MOOCs. But negative commentary on MOOCs may be rising.