The recovery is just the start of Labour's woes It is often said that the party conference speech is the most important in a politician's year, the one into which all their reserves of rhetoric and energy are poured. Yet in the next two days, George Osborne and Ed Miliband are to give speeches to which just as much attention will be paid. For their contents not only reflect the transformation of Labour and the Conservatives" fortunes in recent months, but will do much to shape the political debate as the 2015 election approaches. First, to Mr Osborne's speech in London this morning. While framed in technocratic language - much of it will be devoted to the arguments of the "fiscalist" and "financial conditions" schools of thought, which are apparently the economic equivalent of the Jets and the Sharks - it is a political hatchet job of such brutal effectiveness as to impress even Len McCluskey. Put simply, Mr Osborne's point is that Ed Balls is wrong. Not just wrong, but totally, utterly and ludicrously wrong. While accepting that the recovery is in its early stages, and that more dangers and hard decisions lie ahead, the Chancellor will be emphatic that the idea that austerity has damaged growth, and that more spending is the path to prosperity, is dead in the water. To rub salt in the wound, he will add that what we are seeing is, despite suggestions otherwise, the right kind of growth: based on exports and increased investment, not just consumption and debt. It is possible to pick holes in Mr Osborne's thesis - but only to the extent that there has been too little pruning of government spending, rather than too much. The fact is, the burgeoning recovery does not only make Mr Balls look foolish. It strengthens the Tories" political position immeasurably, enabling them to repeat John Major's claim, but with extra conviction: yes, it hurt. But yes, it worked. The contrast with Labour could not be sharper. While the party retains its poll lead, its leader must face a mutinous TUC conference on Tuesday to defend his plan to sever the union link. And he will do so, as Boris Johnson points out opposite, after the humiliating collapse of his original casus belli, Unite's alleged fixing of candidate selection in Falkirk. Having climbed atop his high horse, Mr Miliband has no choice but to press on, lest his credibility be destroyed. Yet any success will be pyrrhic indeed, given that it will starve Labour of millions of pounds in union funding. With his economic strategy in tatters, his party structure in turmoil and his own reputation in jeopardy, the Labour leader has a rather tougher job on his hands than the Chancellor. Somehow, we cannot imagine Mr Osborne feeling much sympathy.