Germany's Christian Democrats win over Turkish minority voters Ethinic Turks identify with Angela Merkel's CDU For about a decade Turkish-born Hikmet Gulmez supported the centre-left Social Democrats, the traditional home for Germany's ethnic Turks. But in the federal election in 2009 he switched to Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative CDU. And this month he has joined the party in advance of voting CDU in next Sunday's polls. I identify with the CDU. It has values that I share," says the 45-year-old Berlin doctor. Dr Gulmez is not alone. According to a poll published last month by DTJ-Online, a German internet news site for people of Turkish origin, support for the CDU has soared among ethnic Turkish voters from 21.6 per cent four years ago to 31 per cent. The CDU is the latest beneficiary of a slow decline in the SPD's longstanding political dominance of Germany's immigrant-based communities, of which the Turks are the largest. While the DTJ poll sees the opposition social democrats still winning 43 per cent of the ethnic Turkish vote, that is well down on 2009"s 50 per cent and a far cry from 60 per cent a decade ago. This shift matters because German elections, run on a proportional representation system, are often decided by narrow margins. Ayse Demir, a representative of the Turkish Community in Germany, a countrywide organisation campaigning to persuade ethnic Turks to vote, says: "We can decide the election." If that sounds exaggerated consider that in 2002, the SPD won only 9,000 votes more than the CDU and its electoral partner, the CSU, combined. While the social democrats easily formed a government with the support of their allies, the Greens, their legitimacy might have been weaker if they had not been the largest party. About 750,000 ethnic Turks have the vote, out of 1.5m with citizenship and a total ethnic Turkish population of 3m. Altogether Germany has 15m people of foreign origin, or about 19 per cent of the population. With many first-generation Turks working in mines and factories, their children were natural recruits for the SPD, with its trade union ties and labour solidarity rhetoric. But in the past decade, the rise of second- and third-generation ethnic Turks has been matched by growing wealth, education and cultural sophistication that has led to political diversity. Hans-Christian Ströbele, a Green MP, says this reflects the expansion of the ethnic Turkish middle class. The SPD has also lost ground because many ethnic Turks feel it has failed to deliver on promises to promote genuine equality. For example, while it has long backed relaxing restrictions on foreigners seeking German citizenship, these remain onerous. Fatih Köylüoglu, a 29-year-old student and CDU activist, says: "People look at various party programmes and notice that the media image of the SPD as the party that supports minorities isn't right." Until recently, the Greens were the principal winners from the SPD's misfortunes. Germany's most prominent Turkish-origin politician is Cem Ozdemir, the party's co-chairman. But ethnic Turks too have shopped around. Some have backed BIG, a Muslim party founded in 2009. While it emphasises social welfare, its critics are suspicious of its Islamic base and its links to the AKP, Turkey's ruling party. BIG has 6.9 per cent of the ethnic Turkish vote, according to the DTJ poll, making it the fourth-largest party among ethnic Turks. However, with almost no support elsewhere, it will play little role in the polls. The CDU has had big hurdles to overcome, not least its opposition to Turkish entry into the EU, which the SPD supports. However, with potential accession far off, Turkish-origin voters are focusing on domestic German issues. Ahmet Kulahci, the veteran Berlin correspondent of the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, says: "They value Merkel's role in guiding the country through financial crisis." Other ethnic Turks say they also appreciate Ms Merkel's high-profile meetings with German Muslim representatives and calls for deeper integration. Far from feeling alienated by her party's conservative Christian values, they identify with its religious core. As Dr Gulmez, a devout Muslim, puts it: "This is a party with values." Given the SPD's experience, the CDU cannot take anything for granted. The new Bundestag is likely to have only about six ethnic Turkish members - about the same as the outgoing assembly. If the community continues to grow in wealth and status, that's unlikely to be enough.