Shale may fail in Sussex, but it will give America the edge This, in fact, is one of the main reasons that shale is such a game-changer for the US. Huge shale reserves exist pretty much all over the world but nowhere outside America has the same combination of good geology, established geological data, exploration and services companies, public support, private land ownership, water supply, pipeline infrastructure and sheer scale to make a go of this. The impact of shale on America's balance of trade is already evident. Total US energy production has risen from 29.5 quadrillion British thermal units to 38.3 quadrillion in just seven years. At the same time, imports have declined from 34.7 quadrillion to 26.6 quadrillion. The US is self-sufficient in gas and well on the road to self-sufficiency in oil. America should overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's leading oil producer within five years. At the household level, too, the impact of shale is clear. According to economics consultancy IHS, disposable income rose by $1,200 in 2012 because of unconventional hydrocarbon activity. By 2025, the benefit could be as much as $3,500 per household. Another way of looking at it is through the prism of the jobs market, where unemployment has fallen below the national average in a range of shale states such as North Dakota, home of the Bakken field. From an investor's point of view, the principal benefit of shale is how it fuels investment and growth all the way along the industrial value chain. This starts with the exploration and production companies and the businesses serving them. Refiners, utilities companies and petro-chemical businesses benefit from much lower feedstock prices, which again has a knock-on impact on pipeline and other equipment manufacturers, steel fabricators and construction companies. Manufacturing is reversing a 60-year decline as a proportion of US GDP. The cheaper generation of electricity feeds through to power-intensive industries such as aluminium. A host of ancillary sectors such as railways also benefit, for example, from the pipelines built for conventional oil and gas now largely being in the wrong places. Shale is just part of a wider case for investing in the US. The argument also includes a strengthening dollar, recovering housing market, rising animal spirits, innovation and better demographics than most of its rivals. But it would be wrong to underestimate the contribution of shale to this positive story. And as long as Sussex and most of the rest of the world remains frack-free, which I believe it will, the US will retain its compelling competitive edge.