Macquarie tips 8.3pc rise in ASX 200 over 12 months AN election typically boosts sentiment but Macquarie isn't waiting for tomorrow's federal election, tipping the stockmarket to rise 8.3 per cent over the next 12 months. Refreshing their views after the reporting season last month, Macquarie's equity strategy team today told clients the S&P/ASX 200 could deliver a total shareholder return (TSR) of 12.6 per cent for the coming 12 months, including 7.9 per cent capital return and 4.7 per cent dividend yield. On their workings, a TSR of 12.6 per cent equates to a September 2014 "fair value" index target of 5571, 8.3 per cent higher than yesterday's close at 5142.5. After being bashed in recent months as commodity prices declined, resources are forecast to deliver a higher TSR of 16.6 per cent. Macquarie's previous 12-month target was 5308, which the market is approaching after recently outperforming. "The key take away from the recent reporting season was there were no major earnings disappointments," Macquarie's strategist Tanya Branwhite said. While earnings growth for the market ex-resources of about 5 per cent was only modest, this was broadly in line with forecasts and did exceed the negligible earnings per share growth delivered in full-year 2012, despite weak top-line growth. Hence the acceleration in our expected TSR to 12.6 per cent (versus our last update of 8.6 per cent) appears reasonable in light of the gradually improving outlook for earnings growth for not only market but also resources. Macquarie's growing optimism comes ahead of tomorrow's federal election, which is widely expected to boost confidence. CommSec today noted the past five elections have been positive for both the Australian dollar and the sharemarket, which have risen in the three weeks after the poll. "Assuming a clear winner emerges, the federal election should boost the Australian sharemarket, regardless of who the winning party is," said RBS Morgans strategists this week. "We believe this will be driven by the "wall of cash" sitting on the sidelines waiting for confidence to return to the stockmarket. Buy Australian large cap stocks paying a good yield in the lead up to the election.