The N.F.L. Forecast Calls for Defenses to Turn Tougher Steven Bisig/Reuters Jordan Hill, left, Chris Clemons, right, and the Seattle defense have the size, speed and intelligence to handle any offense. For all the high-flying offenses and high-scoring games, defense still matters in the N.F.L. And when the weather turns nasty and injuries and fatigue begin wearing down players, that will be even truer. Yes, the league is on pace to set some offensive records, led by Peyton Manning's magic in Denver. Ten teams are averaging at least 25 points a game, and Indianapolis is barely under that. But for several division leaders - New England, New Orleans, Seattle, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Indianapolis - defense has more than played its part. "It's a highly motivated group," the Saints" defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan, said, knowing full well how awful New Orleans was on defense in 2012, when Ryan was with the Cowboys. I think we all have egg on our face from last season and take that seriously. We want to be a hell of a lot better than what people think we are, so we're just working hard to be a little tiny part of our success. Offenses tend to be ahead of defenses early in the season for several reasons. ■ Teams rarely show their full offense in preseason games, so defenses need time and game film to get up to speed. ■ New concepts presented by offensive coordinators, which can range from the read-option to the spread to whatever is next (the power pistol?), depending on coaches" whims and opponents" tendencies, are challenging to defenses. ■ Although every game is worth one-sixteenth of a team's record, gambling on offense in the early season is more prevalent. ■ In good weather, the passing game is easier to carry out and harder to defend. ■ Place-kickers have fewer negatives to deal with. Much of that will change in November and, particularly, in December. So teams with solid defenses - only Seattle's might be called a shutdown D, although Kansas City comes close with all the take-aways it forces - could rise to the top as the temperatures plummet and the wind whips wildly, with a chance of snow in some cities. That hardly means plenty of 10-9 games are ahead. But a 21-20 score now constitutes a defensive battle. With injuries and an absence of depth on his defense, Patriots Coach Bill Belichick might be hard pressed to have such strong performances from his squad the rest of the way. If any coach can do it, though, it is probably him. Here are some teams that could be well-suited to have their defenses carry them to the playoffs, and then deep into January. SEATTLE The Seahawks should probably be nicknamed the Smash-Mouths. They have the size, speed, intelligence and nastiness to handle any offense, particularly if the game is at their CenturyLink Field. SAN FRANCISCO From front to back, this might be the most talented bunch in the N.F.L. No team is better at safety, where the rookie Eric Reid has been outstanding, complementing Donte Whitner. But with the uncertainty surrounding Aldon Smith and his legal problems, will the 49ers have enough of a pass rush? CINCINNATI When the Bengals get their pass rush cranked up, it comes from the inside and the outside. There is a lot of experience in the secondary, too. KANSAS CITY Ball hawks everywhere. Like Cincinnati, the Chiefs get after the quarterback, and they do it with their linebackers more than almost any other team. If Justin Houston is not the top defensive player in the league so far, maybe Tamba Hali is. BALTIMORE This is the wild card, which is where the Ravens might wind up if they get into the postseason. The defense is younger, faster and more agile than the unit that helped Baltimore win the Super Bowl in February. In Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, it has the dynamic pass rushers. But it needs to force more turnovers. Finally, there are the potent offensive teams that, if they can mix in steady defenses, should be favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy. The Saints, who have made those huge strides under Ryan; the Colts, when they are aggressive; and the Broncos, now that Von Miller and Champ Bailey are back, fall into that category. So when that white stuff is falling from the sky, the tundra becomes slippery and the biting wind swirls, think defense.