Kirin thickens the dairy soup THE entry of the owner of dairy group National Foods, part of the giant Japanese Kirin group, into the complex battle for Warrnambool Cheese and Butter, probably does two things. First, it likely ends the chances of the giant Canadian Saputo diary group. Secondly, it probably guarantees that one of the two local players will end with WCB. It's been reported that Kirin is not interested in taking over WCB. Which is probably wise, as it would almost certainly be knocked back by either or both the Foreign Investment Review Board and the ACCC competition regulator. Kirin purportedly wants to protect its relationship with WCB which supplies it with cheese that it sells under the Coon label into Asia. If correct, that means Kirin wants a seat at the post-takeover table. The "easiest" player to do a deal with would be a Bega Cheese-owned WCB. It would be small and would love a dedicated large customer. Doing a deal with a Murray Goulburn-owned WCB could pose some ACCC difficulties; while Saputo's global ambitions and how it intends WCB to fit into them, would probably clash with Kirin's. Then, there's simple arithmetic. Bega and MGC already own 35 per cent of WCB between them. Kirin's now got 10 per cent - and could go to 14.9 per cent. Combined, that would make it all-but impossible for Saputo to get to the 50.1 per cent necessary for control. If of course, it could even first get through the regulatory barriers. It also probably guarantees control and ownership of WCB will pass to someone. The company is now well and truly in play, and there's too much at stake for all the players. For Bega, it's life and death. It has to get big to survive. Or be swallowed by someone. It's not that fundamental for MGC. But it's a special opportunity to gain some additional scale and pick up some key relationships with farmer suppliers and customers. One of the duo HAS to win. Kirin might just have sealed it. But for whom?