Apple's new iPad mini supplies said to be 'ridiculously tight' Shipments said to fall below 4 million and could drop as low as 3 million This is around a third of the amount shipped for the original model Demand for the first-generation iPad mini exceeded 9 million at launch If this year follows suit, two thirds of people could be left disappointed Figures suggest supply for Apple's new iPad mini, pictured, is 'ridiculously tight' because production of the new Retina Display is limited Apple customers hoping to get their hands on the new iPad mini may be out of luck as reports around supply problems have already begun before the tablet has even gone on sale. According to figures from analytics firm IHS, based on current supply data, shipments of the new iPad mini with Retina Display are expected to fall below 4 million units, and could drop as low as three million ahead of next month's release. Apple shipped around 8.9 million of its first-generation iPads earlier this year, and even this wasn't enough to satisfy demand. If Apple does ship only 3 million new devices - around a third of the old amount - it could leave at least two thirds of customers disappointed as the IHS iSuppli report predicts demand for the new tablet will exceed 9 million. The problem is being blamed on limited production of the new Retina Display, which CEO Tim Cook announced would be added to the iPad mini for the first time. The new 2,048 x 1,536 resolution display on the iPad mini is said to cost 'substantially more' than the 1,024 x 768 version in the original mini. Many of the other features, including screen size, have remained the same meaning production should, in theory, be similar. 'Apple is being rather vague about the exact availability date of the new iPad mini with Retina Display, simply stating the product would ship later in November,' said Rhoda Alexander, director of tablet research at IHS. The company has good reason to be coy about the exact release date, given that supply of the new mini is going to be ridiculously tight in the fourth quarter. The heart of the problem is supply constraints on the new Retina panel. This chart shows Apple iPad shipments compared to product launch dates. In the second and third quarter of this year, shipments of the original iPad mini dropped. According to analytics firm IHS, shipments of the new iPad mini will fall below 4 million units, and could drop as low as three million ahead of next month's launch Screen size: 7.9-inches Resolution: 2048 x 1536 Pixels-per-inch: 326 Camera: 5MP rear-facing, HD rear-facing Basic storage: 16GB Price: From £319 Research from the IHS display team claim that with 'most of the production occurring late in the quarter and the challenges inherent in the new system design, iPad manufacturing is expected to lag well behind panel production' in the final months of the year.' It expects supply will 'improve substantially' at the start of next year, but Chinese New Year could cause supply difficulties that may still be felt through February and into March. 'With supply of the new Retina mini estimated to come in at one-third or less of Apple's mini unit shipments in the fourth quarter of 2012, it's curious that Apple elected to include the product at the same time as the iPad Air,' Alexander continued. Lacking an iPad launch this March, the number of Apple tablets being shipped dropped in the second quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2012. This was the first time Apple had suffered such a drop for its tablet products. The shift 'robbed Apple of the momentum it normally had in what is historically a slow consumer quarter' according to IHS, and opened the door to rivals including Samsung, which launched its 8-inch Galaxy Note during that time.