US debt ceiling crisis - business news and markets: as it happened, October 16 - Telegraph 23.19 No signs of life in the Senate yet... 22.53 Barack Obama has won the shutdown, but his prize is a lame duck presidency, writes Tim Stanley. More from his latest blog post: The shutdown is basically over and the President has won. Or, at least, he's won because the Republicans have definitely lost. But there are caveats to that narrative. First, the Republicans aren't the only ones who ought to hang their heads in shame. It was the Democrat-controlled Senate that first rejected the House's bill and so sparked the crisis. It was the President who refused to talk to anyone about it (and went campaigning instead). It was the federal government - even when in shutdown - that behaved like a spoiled child, covering war memorials in fences and trying to stop military priests from saying Mass. And it was the mainstream media that took the side of the President and helped foster the impression that the GOP is run by a bunch of blowhard crazy people. Second, what has Obama really won? He keeps his precious healthcare reform and he gets government open again - but tomorrow morning he'll still have the same gridlocked political system that he had the night before. The shutdown is a rare example of him winning, but remember that this lame duck president has not only had a very simple (and, frankly, inoffensive) gun control bill killed in the Senate but was so spooked by bad poll numbers that he tried to dump responsibility for military action in Syria onto the Congress - before quietly dropping the idea altogether. Any thought that the shutdown payoff will be that he can sail an immigration reform package comfortably through Congress is pure fantasy. This is a broken presidency living out its last few years either holding off Republican attacks or lazily cruising the country on some pointless, endless, fatuous campaign trail. Obama's administration is politically bankrupt. 22.31 A vote in the Senate could come at 11pm UK time (6pm EST), a senior aide has told Reuters. 22.12 Rating agency Standard & Poor's believes the government shutdown has cut 0.6pc - or $24bn - off US GDP. In the (unlikely) event of a default, S&P expects government spending cuts to amount to around 4pc of GDP. It adds: That would put the economy in a recession and wipeout much of the economic progress made by the recovery from the Great Recession. More from S&P: As we've said, we expect the Senate deal to be approved. However, the current chatter coming out of Washington suggests that any continuing resolution will be a temporary one, with an early 2014 timeframe for the next set of Washington deadlines. The short turnaround for politicians to negotiate some sort of lasting deal will likely weigh on consumer confidence, especially among government workers that were furloughed. If people are afraid that the government policy brinkmanship will resurface again, and with it the risk of another shutdown or worse, they'll remain afraid to open up their checkbooks. That points to another Humbug holiday season. 21.43 John Boehner emerged from the private meeting of the House Republicans with a fist pump, because he was celebrating..... (answers on a postcard please). Apparently he told the meeting that the Republicans while they lost this fight, the GOP would "live to fight another day." I would guess that day will be in about four months, when the US reaches its debt ceiling again. Boehner pumps fist as he emerges from meeting with Republican House members US markets are now closed 21.15 Optimistic of US politicians reaching a deal, US markets climbed higher. The Dow Jones was up 205.76, or 1.36pc, to 15,373.77. The broader S&P 500 rose 23.45, or 1.3, to a near-record high of 1,721.51, and the Nasdaq posite gained 45.42, or 1.20pc, to 3,839.43. Squirrels invade the White House 21.10 Yes, you did read that correctly. Having said he will not block the vote, Senator Ted Cruz has now turned his attention to the effects of the shutdown and has posted the following on his Facebook: Pretty funny -- Craig Ferguson last night: Because of the government shutdown, the White House is under attack - by squirrels. They've invaded the White House garden because the gardeners were laid off. Michelle Obama planted a garden to show how easy it is to grow your own food. All you need is water, sunlight, and 50 full-time federal employees. Ok then. Clapping heard as Republicans meet to concede 20.46 The House Republicans have been a private meeting to discuss the Senate deal and it doesn't seem as if there is too much upset that the party has not got its way. Boehner releases statement conceding defeat 20.43 House Speaker and the most senior Republican in Washington John Boehner has just put out a statement to say that his party will approve the deal that has been agreed by the Senate leaders. Here is his statement in full: The House has fought with everything it has to convince the president of the United States to engage in bipartisan negotiations aimed at addressing our country's debt and providing fairness for the American people under ObamaCare. That fight will continue. But blocking the bipartisan agreement reached today by the members of the Senate will not be a tactic for us. In addition to the risk of default, doing so would open the door for the Democratic majority in Washington to raise taxes again on the American people and undo the spending caps in the 2011 Budget Control Act without replacing them with better spending cuts. With our nation's economy still struggling under years of the president's policies, raising taxes is not a viable option. Our drive to stop the train wreck that is the president's health care law will continue. We will rely on aggressive oversight that highlights the law's massive flaws and smart, targeted strikes that split the legislative coalition the president has relied upon to force his health care law on the American people. Voting would seem a formality now. Deal should be signed into law by midnight. We fought the good fight, we just didn't win 20.32 House speaker John Boehner has been speaking to WLW-AM radio in his home state of Ohio. Conceding defeat he said: We fought the good fight. We just didn't win. There's no reason for our members to vote no today. The House vote is expected sometime later today and Boehner said he believes that the government will reopen on Thursday. John Boehner Senate to vote before the House 20.23 The timing for Senate and House votes was still being worked out by congressional leaders but a Democratic aide said the Senate is likely to vote on the deal first, sometime Wednesday afternoon or early evening (Washington time), before the measure is taken up by the House, the Wall Street Journal is reporting. House expected to vote today 20.04 CNN chief Washington Correspondent Jake Tapper says he has been informed that the Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner will bring the Senate deal to the floor today for a vote. US growth still 'modest to moderate' 19.55 Aside from the US being on the brink of defaulting, The US Federal Reserve has just released its latest Beige Book. The central bank said the US economy continued to grow at a "modest to moderate" pace in recent weeks, but a few regions reported slowdowns, as businesses grew worried about a budget impasse that led to a partial government shutdown. Eight of the Fed's 12 banking districts reported the same growth rate reported in August through early September. But four districts - Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City - reported that growth had slowed. US Federal Reserve Recap of events 19.26 So the Senate leaders have reached a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling and reopen government. Importantly, Ted Cruz, a conservative Texas Republican, has said he would not block the deal. Cruz has waged a weeks-long campaign to persuade Republicans to use the threat of a government shutdown and failure to lift the federal debt limit as leverage to defund, delay, or otherwise undermine Obama's signature health care law. But today he said that at this point there was nothing to gain from taking procedural measures to delay it. So now Congress is in a race against the clock to pass the deal through the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Democratic-controlled Senate in time for Barack Obama to sign it into law before midnight on Thursday. So now, we wait. US borrowing costs fall 18.55 News of a deal has sent the yield on 10-year Treasuries lower. The yield has fallen 1.55pc to 2.686pc. US markets holding steady 18.52 Wall Street had climbed higher on the reports that a deal had been reached and are now holding steady. The Dow Jones is up 1.28pc, the S&P 500 is up 1.26pc and the Nasdaq is up 1.16pc. Deal shows how far expectations of Congress have fallen 18.39 Our US editor Peter Foster says the deal that has been agreed by the Senate leaders shows just how little is thought of Congress, while it is the reputation of America that once again runs out the certain loser. It is a signal of how just how far expectations of Congress have fallen, that a deal to reopen the US government and raise the debt ceiling only until just past the New Year could be hailed as any kind of breakthrough. Instead, it is yet another depressing illustration of how Washington's broken politics continues to undermine confidence in the US economic recovery and raise questions about the long-term viability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Kicking the fiscal can down the road does not answer the fundamental question raised by Fitch, the ratings agency, about how to end "the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility" that has now seen Congress fail to pass a budget for the last five years. Obama expected to sign deal before Thursday deadline 18.33 A senior aide has said both the House and the Senate are expected to approve the fiscal deal announced by the Senate leaders (see 17.33) later Wednesday, leaving enough time for Obama to sign it in to law before the clock strikes midnight and we it October 17. House Repulicans to meet in private 18.18 US House Republicans are due to hold a private meeting at 3pm (8pm UK time) to discuss the Senate's fiscal deal. It is not yet clear when the House will vote. Senate vote expected "after dinner" 18.16 Just flashing up on CNN now is the breaking news that a senior GOP aide has said the Senate will vote on the deal "after dinner." The Senate leaders may have agreed the deal but now the Senate has to vote. Price already paid for coming close to default 18.08 Jay Carney says "there is already a price that has been paid" for coming close to defaulting on debt. He also applauds the leaders of the Senate for the agreement to "reopen the government and remove the theat of economic brinkmanship." Jay Carney White House urges Congress to act quickly 18.03 White House spokesman Carney adds that the Treasury department will exhaust its borrowing authority at the end of Thursday and will only cash to rely on, adding that he hopes Congress moves quickly. Carney says he is "not putting odds on annything" when it comes to Congress approving the Senate deal. White House believes Senate deal will reopen government and avoid default 17.59 White House spokesman Jay Carney has just held a press conference and said that Obama believes that the Senate bipartisan deal will reopen the government and remove the threat of default. Carney urges both houses of Congress to act swiftly to approve the deal. More details on Senate deal 17.47 The Senate agreement also includes no major alterations to the 2010 health-care law (Obamacare). But the deal will include one minor change sought by Republicans, reports the Wall Street Journal - setting new procedures to verify the incomes of some people receiving government subsidies for health-insurance costs. Negotiators rejected a Democratic proposal to delay for one year a fee of $63 per insured person levied on groups that offer health policies, including employers, labor unions and insurance carriers - a fee opposed by many large employers and unions. Republicans still anti-Obamacare 17.44 Just to go back slightly to the Senate floor - when Democrat Harry Reid was talking he thanked the Republicans for the work done to reach the deal. Republican Mitch McConnell, on the other, was scathing about the Democrats and in particular Obamacare. Republicans remain determined to repeal this terrible law. But, aware of the need to not set off a major financial crisis he added: Now's time for Republicans to unite behind other crucial goals. Details of the Senate deal 17.33 The bipartisan agreement, which must now be passed by both houses of Congress, would reopen the government until January 15 and reauthorise the US Treasury to increase the nation's borrowing authority until February 17. Congress is now in a race against the clock to pass the deal through the Republican-controlled House of Representatives in time for Barack Obama to sign it into law before midnight on Thursday. Inside the Senate Republican Cruz will not block deal 17.28 As McConnell was speaking in the Senate, Repulican US Senator Ted Cruz said he does not intend to delay the passge of the bipartisan Senate deal. McConnell now talking on Senate floor 17.25 Minority leader Mitch McConnell now speaking. He says he is confident that the government shutdown can be ended and the debt limit can be raised later today. Reid is now talking on the Senate floor 17.21 He says it's never easy for two sides to reach a consensus but a bipartisan compromise has been reached in the Senate This time it was really hard. After weeks of negotiations, our country came to the brink of disaster... but in the end political adversaries set aside their difference to avert disaster. This is not a time for blame, it is a time for reconciliation. Harry Reid waiting for Mitch MConnell 17.15 Majority Leader, Senator Harry Reid, has made some opening remarks. He's waiting for the Minority Leader, Senator Mitch McConnell, to arrive before announcing the details. Watch the Senate live 17.10 If you want to watch the Senate majority leader Harry Reid talk on the deal reached, you can watch it live here. It hasn't started yet. European markets close higher 17.02 Expectations of an imminent deal in Washington to avert a US debt default sparked a sharp turnaround in European markets. Frankfurt's DAX climbed 0.47pc to set a new record close at 8,846.0. London's FTSE 100 added 0.34pc to 6,571.59, while the CAC in Paris rose 0.29pc to 4,243.72 points. Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: The pressing issue was the debt payments and a potential U.S. default and that is what we seem to have averted here and that is the reason why the market has spiked Senate expected to announced deal imminently 16.56 The Senate is expected to convene in less than 10 minutes to confirm the details of the deal that it has agreed. An aide has said the Senate will announce the deal at midday - that's 5pm UK time, so in about five minutes then. Don't forget that the House still has to vote. House undecided if it will vote first 16.43 There had been reports that the House would vote on the Senate deal before the Senate even does. But David Schnittger, who is deputy chief of staff for the office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives (so Boehner's deputy chief of staff) tweeted Reuters to say no decision had been made yet. Dollar jumps on news of Senate deal 16.34 The dollar has jumped against a basket of currencies on news of the Senate reaching a deal to avert the US from defaulting. It is up 0.24pc. The full story of the Senate deal is now live and can be read here. US markets climb 16.29 US markets have climbed following news of the deal in the Senate. The Dow Jones is up 1.22pc, the S&P 500 is up 1.35pc and the Nasdaq is up 1.15pc. US House intends to vote on Senate fiscal plan 16.23 The Republican-led House intends to vote on the plan emerging in the Democratic-led Senate, a leadership aide has said. Reuters reports that the aide said it is unclear if the House will have the votes to give final congressional approval to the bipartisan Senate proposal. House still has to vote 16.18 It is worth noting that while it is good news that the Senate has reached a deal, the Senate has never been the problem and a deal was widely expected. It is the Republican-controlled House of Representatives that could delay a deal. The House will have to vote on any Senate deal and it is still members that members of the Tea Party could block the vote. Still some way to go yet. Breaking - US Senate has reached a deal 16.15 Sources are reporting that the US Senate has reached a deal to avoid the world's largest economy defautling. Why the 11th hour deal if at the final hurdle the Republicans "fold like a cheap tent"? 16.06 A deal that passes through both the Senate and Congress remains increasingly at risk of an overshoot, with only a matter of hours to go, says Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets. He says the key question is whether any vote will get past the House of Representatives, and whether certain elements in that chamber manage to block any potential deal! If we do get some sort of a deal in the next few hours, from both houses then it really does beg the question as to what in heaven's name has the last three weeks been all about, if at the final hurdle the Republicans fold like a cheap tent. The Republicans may well feel they have made their point, but at what cost to the US's international standing. Republican senators to announce deal 15.56 CNBC is reporting that Republican senators are aiming to announce a deal by noon (that's 5pm UK time) - so little over an hour. There were multiple reports that the Senate bill would get a quick vote in the House, potentially bringing a rapid end to the crisis. Is the deal actually in place? 15.46 I'm inclined to agree with Sky News' Sam Washington. Bipartisan deal reached - reports 15.42 It is all happening quickly now. It seems a deal to reopen government and avoid default has been reached. These are just reports at the moment. Once we hear more we will confirm it. Senate Republicans to meet to discuss deal 15.40 Senate Republicans will meet at 11am - that is 4pm UK time. Boehner will take Senate deal - reports 15.24 According to National Review's Washington editor Robert Costa, Boehner has agreed to take the Senate deal when it is finalised. Thanks to Lord_Rim in comments for pointing out the tweet US Senate leaders 'very close' to fiscal deal 15.06 US Senate negotiations on legislation to raise the country's debt limit and reopen government agencies are nearing completion and a deal could be announced soon, a senior Senate Democratic aide said on Wednesday. Reuters reports that the aide, who asked not to be identified, added that there were "indications" that once a deal is announced, the Senate might be able to move quickly to pass it. That could mean that Tea Party activists, such as Republican Senator Ted Cruz, do not intend to throw up procedural roadblocks. The aide also said that talks are underway to try to move legislation quickly through the House of Representatives. But past attempts to do so have failed amid Tea Party opposition in that chamber. Five reasons to fear October 17 will pass without a deal 14.51 Markets may seem hopeful of a deal, but our Washington-based US editor Peter Foster says it seems increasingly likely that the October 17 deadline will pass without a deal. Here are the five reasons why: No-one believes the deadline is real The markets haven't stressed - yet From a procedural point of view, time is running out It's still not clear that Boehner can claim he has done enough to placate Tea Party caucus Obama has a track record of blinking when it matters most. 14.39 Afternoon all. I shall be taking you through to .... well, hopefully some sort of deal from Washington to avoid the world's largest economy from defaulting. US markets are open and they seem confident a deal will be done, as our US business editor Katherine Rushton points out. Markets jumped sharply on opening, amid hopes that politicians in Washington would broker a last minute deal. At 9.33am, the Dow Jones was up 81 points, or 0.53pc to 15,249 whilst the S&P 500 index rose 0.54pc, or 9.13 points, to 1,707.2. That's New York. Handover time 14.32 I'm handing the blog over to Rebecca Clancy, who will follow all the action (or inaction) in Washington until markets close in the US. Wall Street poised to open higher as traders bet on eleventh-hour deal 14.21 Traders seem to have confidence in the US government to sort itself out. The futures indices on the American stock market are all pointing up before the open in a few minutes. Markets hang on every word from Washington 14.12 We may not be seeing much in terms of overall stock market movement amid the debt ceiling debacle, but Wall Street is certainly paying attention to Washington. Below is the VIX volatility index, which measures the implied skittishness of stocks (or more accurately - traders of those stocks) on the S&P 500. For one, it's running far higher on the whole since October 1, when the budget stand-off triggered a partial shut down of the government. In the last week, the spikes correspond to the periods of most uncertainty, and the dips to moments when politicans have made positive noises about progress on reaching a resolution. Note the dip just before the weekend, when markets were hopeful of a deal, and again yesterday, when it seemed like the Senate might strike an agreement. Jack Lew, fearmongerer? 14.06 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew appeared before the Senate finance committee last week to explain why a looming debt ceiling poses a threat to the economy. Business Insider highlights this note from Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart, who says Lew may have overplayed the event-horizon nature of October 17...given that the government still has $30bn to play with. Tomorrow is important because it is when the government will have hit the limit of what it can legally borrow - a whopping $16.7 trillion. Secretary Jack Lew's main contribution has been to convince legislators that a soft date is scarily hard, keeping politicians negotiating in advance of what they believe is the crack of doom. What the Treasury has explained is that on October 17, it will only have $30 billion in cash in its account at the Federal Reserve, it will have exploited all extraordinary measures for which there is precedent, and that it will not consider schemes to protect coupon and principal payments at the expense of other Treasury claimants. There are multiple qualifiers in that statement, the most important of which is that the Treasury anticipates still having cash. Default is the event pressed upon the Treasury when the risk materializes of over-drafting at its fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve, which cannot lend directly to the Treasury. With cash still expected in the till, October 17 is really not the event horizon, even before considering expanding the frontier of extraordinary measures before or on that day. Unlikely to get a final deal on the debt ceiling today 13.55 Jim Acosta, CNN's senior White House correspondent, expects the Senate will reach a deal on the debt ceiling today but may not vote on it until tomorrow. Instead he thinks they will pass it to the House of Representative and hope Speaker John Boehner (Republican) can garner enough support from reluctant Tea Party members to back the deal. The Senate would then vote on it - hopefully in time for the midnight deadline. CNN says American are seething at the brinksmanship being shown on Capitol Hill. Short-term cost of borrowing spiking 13.50 Dan Greenhaus, BTIG's chief global strategist, tweeted this snapshot from his Bloomberg screen, showing that the cost of borrowing on Treasury Bills which mature on October 24 has skyrocketed. Has America woken up yet? 12.58 European stock markets seem to be twiddling their thumbs this morning, knowing that no news will emerge from Washington until the afternoon. Once action or, indeed, inaction kicks off in Washington, then we might see some market movement. Here's Richard Griffiths, associate director of Berkeley Futures: If we haven't heard anything by late afternoon, we'll be moving south Markets would prefer a short-term deal today than a longer term deal later 12.43 Kathleen Brooks, currency analyst at Forex.com, sees the market envisaging two scenarios We don't get a deal today, the markets take a wobble - specifically the stock market, which forces the politicians to reach a deal in the coming days before the next interest payment comes due on October 31. So it could be trick or treat from the Capitol Hill in the coming days. We still won't rule out a temporary deal, even at this late stage, after all it was late into the evening on the 2011 deadline day that the US Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling. Right now the expectations are for the debt ceiling to be raised until February 2014, and for the government to be funded until January 2014. Kathleen prefers the second outcome as it at least gives markets some near-term certainty and a deadline to February would put the next stand-off much closer to Congressional elections, meaning politicians may be more inclined to reach a deal and not lose favour with voters: In terms of the market impact, the first outcome could cause the biggest wobble in the financial markets. Although October 17th is only a soft deadline, if Congress still looks divided at midnight tonight then some doubt might start to creep in that a fresh deal will be reached in the coming days before key repayments come due. Although the latter option is essentially kicking the can down the road, this would be the most market -friendly outcome in our view because 1) it reduces the immediate threat of default and thus a credit rating downgrade, and 2) February is only 6-months until mid-term Congressional elections. This current stand-off has proven to be unpopular with the voters, particularly for the Republicans, thus as Congress men and women try to win re-election they may be more likely to reach a deal in 4 months" time. Watch Buffett's rant about the use of the debt ceiling as a political pawn 12.37 Here it is: CNBC's interview with Warren Buffett on Squawkbox where he compares the threat of not raising the debt ceiling to a "political weapon of mass destruction." What will happen in Washington today? 12.30 The spotlight is back on the Democrat-controlled Senate this morning, after a proposal tabled by Republican-dominated House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner was scotched by members of his own house. But any deal, whether presented by the Senate or the House of Representatives, must be passed by the other house as well. Senate leaders Harry Reid (Dem) and Mitch McConnell (Rep) are expected to put forward a bipartisan deal which would raise the debt ceiling until February 7 and re-open the Federal government, which has been partially shut down since the beginning of the month. But even this short-term measure is likely to have trouble passing the House of Representatives. Our duo in Washington, Peter Foster and Raf Sanchez, spoke to people with links to the Republican Senate leadership late last night, who told them that there are serious concerns that Tea Party Republicans in the House of Representatives would try to filibuster any deal. That could leave Washington without a deal as the sun rises on 'X-day' - when the government has no further means to legally borrow money from the markets. Software company Anite nosedives on profit warning 11.46 Over with the individual movers in the stock market, Anite, a provider of software to the wireless and travel industries, has plunged 31pc after sounding a profit warning that was caused by the weaker than expected performance of its handset testing business. The bad news from Anite has weighed on telecoms testing company Spirent, which is also down 5.8pc. Buffett compares threat of not raising debt ceiling to 'poison gas' 11.20 The Sage of Omaha, not one for hyperbole, has just compared the debt ceiling to an atomic bomb. In an interview on CNBC he said: the threat of not raising the debt ceiling is "a political weapon of mass destruction." I know it's been used in the past, but we used the atomic bomb back in 1945 but we decided we weren't going to do something like that again. Foreign companies have cut their holdings of US Treasuries 11.14 Non-US companies - mostly banks - have cut their holdings of US Treasures in the run-up to the debt ceiling deadline. The figures are in billions of dollars. As indication of how firms are reacting, JPMorgan Chase said earlier this month - as it reported its first loss under Jamie Dimon - that it had sold all of its exposure to short-term US government bonds to safeguard against a Government default. While the bank believed the probability of a default is low, it was taking precautionary measures to protect investors. the bank said its money market funds no longer held any US Treasuries that mature or have payments scheduled between October 16 and November 6 and it had increased its liquidity position in the funds. When does the US hit its debt ceiling, anyway? 11.06 There has been a lot of debate about the US will hit the debt ceiling - some say it will be midnight tonight. Michael van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets, says there is no set time and it will be "when the US cannot borrow any more." That could be at midnight or sometime on Thursday - it was US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew who told Congress last week that the extraordinary measures being used to avoid breaching the debt ceiling "will be exhausted no later than October 17." He said the department will have about $30bn to pay obligations if Congress fails to reach an agreement to lift the cap. Tomorrow $120bn of Treasury bills come due. Yesterday the US raised $13bn from the sale of $65bn in three- and six-month bills. October 31 could be a scary day 10.28 It's worth remembering that the US will not actually run out of money tomorrow - there will still be around $30bn left in the coffers. October 17 is the day that the US Treasury will have no more capacity to borrow, which means that the only money flowing in will be from tax revenues. But the US spends more than its citizens pay in tax, so the money is set to run out eventually. It could be as little as two weeks. October 31 has been circled as a possible date for default should Washington fail to strike a deal. This is because several payments on Treasury Bills are due on that day - $6bn in either repayments or interest payments. A further $58bn in other obligations - mostly social security related pay-outs - are due the very next day. Traders sitting on their hands in US debt ceiling limbo 10.21 While panic has not spread through the markets yet, traders are reluctant to take a position. Stock markets in Europe are in the red, but not dramatically so. The FTSE 100 is down 0.44pc, the French Cac has dropped 0.7pc and the Dax in Germany has dipped 0.1pc.