Holden's cash contribution to state down since offered $275m rescue deal Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane says the government will do all it can to support car manufacturer Holden. HOLDEN'S economic contribution to the state has declined sharply since it was offered a $275 million rescue deal but up to 13,000 jobs remain at risk if it closes, analysis shows. Two of the state's leading academics have updated a key report into the company's operations which has been used by the State Government to help make the case for further handouts. It finds cost cutting and job shedding at Holden since 2011 have lessened the worst case scenario impact of a shutdown on employment, state tax revenue and economic activity. Torrens University Australia business professor Barry Burgan and Australian Workplace Innovation and Social Research Centre executive director John Spoehr have found a Holden closure would cost the state between $350 million and $1.2 billion in economic activity. More: SA's 'weak' credit rating unlikely to receive AAA rating soon That is down from between $500 million and $1.5 billion modelled in their 2011 report. The State Budget is expected to take a hit of between $20 million and $70 million per year if the carmaker quit Adelaide tomorrow, reduced from a range of $25 million to $83 million. The updated paper also predicts job losses of between 4300 and 13,000 at Holden and companies that rely on it, down from earlier predictions of between 6000 and 16,000. Professor Burgan said closure would likely deliver results close to the high end of the modelling. "It comes down to whether the supplying industries would be able to find alternative contracts for what they do," he said. More: Holden sacks design engineers, cuts competitive edge The upper end is based on an assumption that if Holden work went, the business would no longer be viable and ... they would shut down. The indications given to me are all that it's toward the higher end. Professor Spoehr said the report showed Holden's closure would have a "very negative impact" and current weakness in the state economy would make finding replacement jobs difficult. However, the report does not examine if taxpayers should spend more to keep Holden open. Holden was offered $275 million by the state and former federal government in March last year but is again locked in talks over support, claiming market conditions have changed. It comes as the Federal Government enters the final stages of drafting the terms of reference for a Productivity Commission inquiry into the auto sector. The study isn't expected to be released until mid next year and will guide future taxpayer support for Australian car making. Premier Jay Weatherill told The Advertiser Holden remained vital to SA. "The fundamental truth holds that this is an incredibly strategic industry for the future of manufacturing in South Australia," he said. Trying to create a manufacturing industry out of the ashes of one that has disappeared is so much harder than transitioning from an existing one. If those skills and capabilities disappear from the state, we don't have the ability to move into these other (advanced manufacturing) sectors that we do need to move into.