For Carrión, No Debate and Confounded Allies By Stephen Farrell Carrión: The Third Man: Among the candidates competing to be mayor of New York City, the Independence Party's Adolfo Carrión Jr. is polling a distant third behind his better-known rivals Bill de Blasio and Joseph J.Lhota. When Bill de Blasio, the Democratic nominee for mayor, and Joseph J. Lhota, the Republican candidate, debate each other Tuesday for the first time in this year's general election contest, there will be one clear loser: Adolfo Carrión Jr. Mr. Carrión, a former Bronx borough president and longtime Democrat who is running for mayor as the standard-bearer of the Independence Party, had been counting on the debate to kick-start his upstart bid. But it did not work out, just like so many aspects of a candidacy that continues to confound his former allies. His poll numbers are so low that he has been excluded from the event, and he will most likely be missing from the final two televised debates. Despite starting with a hefty $1 million war chest from previous campaigns, Mr. Carrión has spent so much money that he does not have enough left for a broad television campaign. And despite his extensive résumé and oratorical gifts, he has received scant media coverage. Mr. Carrión's fortunes represent a stunning fall for someone who was viewed, for many years, as the Latino community's best hope to win citywide office, after Fernando Ferrer fell short in the mayoral races of 2001 and 2005. Latinos now make up about a third of the city's population, and a fifth of registered voters. "Adolfo once had an amazing chance to be the first citywide Latino elected to office, but the decisions he has made in proceeding with this quixotic effort mean that he will not win in November, and have damaged his ability in this Democratic city to win down the road," said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic consultant who has worked for Mr. Carrión in the past. Mr. Carrión's successor in the Bronx was even more blunt. "We felt, in a word, betrayed," said Ruben Diaz Jr., the borough president and a Democrat. I was a big fan. I was one of those guys who thought that the sky was the limit for Adolfo. There are a lot of folks out there who believe this is all self-promotion, and if that's the case, I feel twice as heartbroken. But Mr. Carrión is unfazed. Offering what he calls a "pro-growth, pro-public safety, pro-jobs" platform, Mr. Carrión, the son of a well-known pastor, believes that his message will resonate. He said that most people are independent-minded, and that the two-party system is too stifling. "The notion of waiting your turn just doesn't fit into my worldview," Mr. Carrión, 52, said in an interview. I don't have the patience for it. That bothers people, but I don't care. I hate politicians. I really do. He scoffs at polls gauging his support at 2 or 3 percent. And despite being boxed out of Tuesday's debate, he says he will have enough money for a cable television commercial aimed at Latinos and his Bronx and northern Manhattan base. By contrast, Mr. de Blasio and Mr. Lhota are captives, he says, of a bygone political era. "These guys have reference points in the past, and I'm talking about building a city of the future," he said. They're still in the black-and-white world, and I'm in the shades-of-brown world. To spend some time with Mr. Carrión is to watch a natural politician blithely ignore conventional wisdom and revel in retail politics; showing off dance moves at a senior center as Latin music blares, routinely calling everyone "brother" or "hermano," and clapping his hands and often barking a phrase twice as a motivational tool. Let's do this! Let's do this!" he said to a small group of supporters, before visiting businesses along Fordham Road. At a fund-raiser at the bustling Havana Cafe in the Schuylerville neighborhood, Mr. Carrión, who once ran a catering business, put on a chef's jacket emblazoned with his name, and cooked shrimp al ajillo, to the chants of "Carrión! Carrión! "You know that this is a tough race," he told about 40 supporters. You know that we've been through a very long circus of a primary. We've gone past that chapter and we're now in the grown-up phase. Mr. Carrión believes that he needs to receive 400,000 out of a projected 1.2 million votes cast. He is counting on Latinos, moderates and a good share of the Independence Party's 112,000 registered voters.