Voters do not believe Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister The polling showed that 32 per cent of voters would vote for Labour, while 27 per cent would vote for the Conservatives. Labour's vote rose by two points, while the Tories fell two points. Meanwhile, a poll by Populus put Labour at 36 per cent and the Conservatives on 31 per cent. The Ashcroft polling showed that the UK Independence Party's vote share increased two points to 18 per cent in the wake of their second by-election in Rochester and Strood. The Liberal Democrat vote share fell to 7 per cent, after the party lost its deposit in the Kent by-election. The Liberal Democrats got only 349 votes in Kent - 0.87 per cent of the votes cast - raising concerns about an electoral meltdown in 2015. Lord Ashcroft said that it was notable that "the two largest parties have achieved a combined share of just 59% for five out of the last six weeks." The Conservative peer - known for his tense relationship with the Tory central office - said that the as smaller parties become more influential and the political scene became more fragmented, parties would have to fight constituencies seat by seat. Some 40% thought the Conservatives would be in Government and 39% Labour. Of those, 27% thought Tories would be governing alone, rather than in a coalition, while 26% said it would be a Labour-only administration. Of the 26% who thought there would be a coalition involving Lib Dems, half thought it would be with Labour and half with the Tories. However, it is voters" lack of belief in Mr Miliband that will worry Labour strategists.