Positive Tories - Telegraph This time next week, the Conservatives will almost certainly be one seat lighter in the House of Commons. The by-election at Rochester and Strood, triggered by the defection of Mark Reckless to Ukip, looks lost. It is hard to find a Tory MP who has campaigned in the north Kent constituency who thinks they can win. What matters now is how the party responds to what would be its second successive defeat at the hands of Nigel Farage's insurrectionists. There had been speculation that David Cameron's leadership would come under challenge were another seat to fall. Mercifully, such talk has subsided. The expectation of winning Rochester and Strood - which was high at the time of the party conference - has wisely dissipated. Even though the mood among Eurosceptics was hardly improved by the handling of the European Arrest Warrant vote in the Commons, the consideration of a new Tory leader would be suicidal. It would also be rather odd, in the light of this week's encouraging economic news and the continued travails of Ed Miliband. If the by-election outcome turns out to be a blow for Mr Cameron, a Ukip victory would be just as problematic for Labour. This was a seat they held until 2010 and yet they are set to come a distant third next Thursday. Ukip is becoming a serious threat to Labour, especially in those northern seats where the Lib Dems came second last time but now face obliteration. This is because many working-class voters see Labour not as the solution to their difficulties, as Mr Miliband suggested they were in his speech on Thursday, but as part of the problem. In the run-up to the general election, the Tories have a good economic story to tell - and doing so must be their priority.