Nigeria: naira-naira land - FT.com The country's shares and currency are falling as shifts in the oil market start to hurt The Investment Corporation of Dubai has probably made better-timed investments. In September the ICD paid $300m for a minority stake in Dangote Cement - Nigeria's largest company by market capitalisation. Dangote's share price since then? Down by a fifth. The Lagos bourse overall has fallen into a bear market. Blame the naira and the falling price of oil (Nigeria's biggest export, and two-thirds of its fiscal revenue). This week the first plumbed a record low against the US dollar as the second breached $80 per barrel. Forward contracts on the naira are pricing in a 15 per cent devaluation some time in the next year, perhaps after elections in February. Which may thus look like the time to buy. Devaluations hurt more when they are surprises (such as Mexico, 1994). Dangote stock is an indifferent 12 times its forecast 2015 earnings. The bet will seem cleverer still if oil prices rebound from these levels. The problem is that a rebound may not include the kind of crude Nigeria is selling. Its Bonny Light is sweet, low in sulphur, easy to refine - and thus hard to sell to US buyers nowadays, given the shale revolution produces the same kind of oil closer to home. US imports of Bonny are down nine-tenths since 2010. Nigeria shows how structural shifts have caught up with oil markets this year. It has failed to prepare: a rainy-day fund built with oil cash is only $4bn. The ICD is one such vehicle too. Its assets? $160bn.