Heathrow and Gatwick accused of being too 'optimistic' about new runways Airports Commission raises doubts about the costs of expansion Insists there is a need for a new runway to handle 200,000 flights a year Heathrow says a third runway costs £15.6bn, but could be £3bn more Gatwick's bill of £7.4bn for second runway could be £2bn higher Passengers face the prospect of soaring air fares as the Government's airports" tsar" said the cost of building an extra runway will cost billions of pounds more than Heathrow and Gatwick bosses had estimated. That means the price that airports charge airlines for every passenger that lands is likely to rise by up to two and a half times fuelling unwelcome fare rises. British Airways boss Willie Walsh said passengers would be hit hard their pockets as the charges are passed onto the ticket price. Gatwick airport has published plans for a second runway, which is claims will cost £7.4billion but today's report suggest the bill will be £2billion higher Airports "tsar" Sir Howard Davies said that by his own calculation, Heathrow would see its per passenger landing charge rise from £20 to a maximum £32, or an increase of 60 per cent. But at Gatwick airlines face a rise from £9 to up to £23 - a two and a half times increase and well above the maximum £15 promised by Gatwick. All are far in excess of the airports" own estimates. The figures appear in Sir Howard's 94-page consultation document on airport expansion whose associated papers stretch to nearly 10,000 pages. One new runway with the capacity to handle around 200,000 aircraft movements a year, will be needed to maintain the UK's connectivity and hub status Mr Walsh, chief executive of BA's parent company, the International Airlines Group (IAG) said of the airports: " They promised this would make fares lower. But the charges are to be increased. How do I trust them? These are huge figures which seem to be glossed over. The impact of this on my cost base is excessive. And I don't trust any of them. Heathrow Airport chiefs said their preferred plan for a third runway would come in at around £15.6billion including road improvements while Gatwick said a second runway would cost £7.4billion. But Sir Howard Davies who chairs the Government's Airports Commission said the plans were 'optimistic;' and that by his calculation the true cost of Heathrow would be £3billion more and Gatwick would cost an extra £2billion. The battle for a controversial new runway at one of Britain's two biggest airports intensified today as the Government's 'Airports tsar' put his short-list of three options out for public consultation and scrutiny. The 94-page dossier from Sir Howard Davies and his Whitehall-appointed Airports Commission includes the latest analysis of the runway expansion bids - two at Heathrow and one at Gatwick. The shortlisted options include: Heathrow Airport's official bid for a new 3,500-metre runway; an extension of the existing northern runway at Heathrow in a plan put forward by the Heathrow Hub consortium led by former Concorde pilot Jock Lowe; a new runway at Gatwick Airport in West Sussex. There was some bad news for Gatwick as Sir Howard said its costs were nearly £2billion higher than it had suggested, noting that 'Gatwick has developed forecasts using a different model from the Airports' Commission'. But it still remains the cheapest option. The options were originally put forward in an interim report from the commission in December last year and provoked a bitter war of words between rivals Heathrow and Gatwick which continues to this day. But now residents living near or under the flight paths of the two airports, public bodies, business leaders and environmental campaigners will have their chance to put their views to the body which will recommend to ministers which plan should be the winner. Noise, cost, convenience and the number of homes and other buildings to be demolished will be three of the key issues, as well as environmental challenges. Sir Howard has already ruled out the so-called 'Boris Island' option - a new Thames Estuary airport to the east of the capital favoured by London Mayor Boris Johnson. He told BBC Breakfast: 'There's not a huge amount of difference between the two Heathrow options, both of them are rather more expensive than the Gatwick option. On the costs, we are cautious people, and we have applied a margin for luck, if you like, in that the experience of large infrastructure projects tells us that there is always a degree of optimism bias in the plans put forward by proposers. 'It's not that we are fundamentally disagreeing with the way they have put together their budget, but we just think that the reality is that they're likely to become rather more expensive. 'We've also looked not just at the cost...but also at the environmental implications, at the noise implications around both of the airports, what they will do to land take and how many houses will need to be destroyed in order to build these airports.' On the Gatwick option, the commission said a second runway at the West Sussex airport would cost an estimated £9.3billion which, it noted, was higher that Gatwick Airport Ltd's estimate of £7.4 billion. The new runway would be built south of the present runway, and there would be a new terminal building between the two runways with a capacity of about 50 million passengers a year, slightly higher than the combined capacity of 45 million of the current North and South terminals. A total of 168 homes would probably have to be demolished and further residential properties could also be lost, said the commission. Investment in the new runway would, in the commission's view, lead to increased airport charges of between £15 and £18 per passenger with peak charges of up to £23. The commission said these figures were higher than Gatwick's own estimates of charges of £12 to £14 per passenger compared with the current £9. Gatwick chief executive Stewart Wingate disputed some of Sir Howard's findings about his airport's costings insisting: "Gatwick stands by its commitment that airport charges will not rise above £15 with our second runway scheme." As we study today's report the choice on costs is becoming much clearer. Heathrow is effectively asking the taxpayer for a subsidy of billions at a very tight time for the public finances to construct their third runway. The commission said: 'The delivery risks associated with the Gatwick scheme are assessed as relatively low and the commission considers an opening date of 2025 is achievable.' Expansion would mean an increase in annual flights from 280,000 at present to 560,000. The commission also appeared unconvinced about one aspect of the Gatwick plan. It said that Gatwick intended to deliver the runway first, with the new terminal and associated infrastructure being delivered as demand required: 'The commission considers the remote pier facility built as part of the intermediate phase of the plan may produce a worse passenger experience than is currently the norm at Gatwick. Gatwick believe the passenger experience can be maintained in the remote facility. Heathrow Airport's official proposal is for a third runway to the north west of the site, but the costs could be £3billion more than first thought On the official scheme put forward by Heathrow Airport Ltd for a new runway to north-west of the airport, the commission said a new terminal would be built in stages to the west of the current central terminal area. The new terminal would have a capacity of 35 million passengers a year, similar to the current Terminal 5 (T5) and would be built in the same style as T2 and T5. A total of 784 homes are likely to have to be demolished and there might be further housing loss, the commission said. The new runway would lead to Heathrow's annual aircraft movements rising from the current 480,000 to 740,000. The commission estimates passenger numbers could reach 132 million-149 million a year by 2050 - larger than any current airport. Expansion would mean long-haul passengers would remain the majority at the airport but there was likely to be an increase in domestic passengers by 2050. A final recommendation on which plan should get a government go-ahead will not be made until the commission makes its full report in summer 2015. Sir Howard Davies, chairman of the Airports Commission, insisted no final decision had been made on which plan should go ahead Launching his 12 week consultation today Sir Howard said: 'Our argument is that one new runway with the capacity to handle around 200,000 aircraft movements a year, will be needed to maintain the UK's connectivity and hub status, which is what our brief from the Government invites us to secure.' The Commission has conclude 'that there is the case for at least one net additional runway in London and the South East by 2030' and likely demand for a second runway by 2050. Sir Howard said: 'Since our interim report last year we have undertaken a huge amount of work. We have carried out a thorough assessment, across a comprehensive range of subjects, looking at the benefits and impacts of each proposal. He said: 'We have not yet taken a view on which proposal strikes the most effective balance between the assessment criteria. It is important first that we provide an opportunity for this evidence to be examined, challenged and improved. This consultation gives everyone with an interest in the issue of airport expansion that opportunity. Responses to this consultation will be a valuable addition to our evidence base and will directly inform our recommendation to the Government when we publish our final report in the summer of 2015. The boss of Heathrow said he is 'relaxed' about which of two proposals to expand his airport is chosen by the Government - as long as it is picked in preference to Gatwick's plan. Heathrow chief executive John Holland-Kaye said the 'political wind' had changed and many MPs, business leaders and residents spoke of 'when, not if' Heathrow will expand. He said: 'If the Government says it will be the Heathrow Hub, we'd be happy. But if it is between Gatwick and Heathrow, then the answer has to be Heathrow. Former Concorde pilot Jock Lowe has won widespread support for his own consortium's cheaper and novel 'Heathrow Hub' idea - of lengthening the current Northern runway to at least 6,000-metres and operating it for both departures and arrivals. Mr Lowe said it had the advantage of helping to defuse opposition from local residents and would be easier for politicians to 'sell' to the public as 'it's not a third runway'. Lowe added: 'Our runway is super-long, super-safe, and cheap.' Gatwick chief executive Stewart Wingate said a second runway at his airport would be 'cheaper, faster, simpler with less environmental impact.' He added: 'We think Gatwick has the best chance of actually happening.' Aviation Minister Robert Goodwill said of Sir Howard Davies' final report, which is to offer a clear recommendation for the next Government, said: 'Any incoming Government would base its decision on that report.' But he dodged the question of whether a Conservative administration would implement the recommendation in full, noting that the Lib Dems had spoken out against expanding Heathrow: 'The conclusion of the Commission will be the basis on which we make that decision. He said: 'There is a small matter of the possibility - I hope the slim possibility - of a coalition.' In that case a final decision would have to be 'negotiated', he said. The biggest disaster for this particular debate would be for it to become a General Election issue. Airport expansion is a political hot potato. In 2009, the Labour government officially backed an extra third runway at Heathrow but this was scrapped by the coalition Government when it took power in 2010. But the Conservatives became convinced that airport expansion was necessary and appointed Sir Howard's commission, albeit asking the team to make its final decision only after the general election.