Victorian election 2014: Tony Abbott's friendly fire on Denis Napthine Denis Napthine should have publicly shirtfronted Tony Abbott months ago, argues Laurie Oakes. IT is not hard to understand why Denis Napthine would feel Tony Abbott has hung him out to dry. It goes back to a conversation between the Prime Minister and the Victorian Premier soon after the federal Budget in May. The Napthine Government's opinion poll ratings had shot up after it delivered a well-crafted state Budget focusing on infrastructure and jobs. But Joe Hockey's promise-breaking federal Budget followed almost immediately, and all the electoral benefits Napthine looked like gaining were blown away. At their next meeting, the Premier asked Abbott why he had not announced some of the nasty measures in an economic statement soon after winning office if federal finances were in such disrepair. Getting them out into the open earlier, he said, would have made the impact on the Coalition's re-election prospects in Victoria less devastating. The PM's answer was that he'd been concerned to avoid damaging Liberal chances in state elections in Tasmania and South Australia. Napthine should have publicly shirtfronted Abbott months ago. Advisers urged that he position himself as a courageous premier fighting for his state against Canberra. But confrontation - especially with people from his own side of politics - is not the Victorian Premier's style. He said of Abbott at one point: "I think there's a view in Victoria - and there's some parts of it I share - that some of the decisions he has made have been decisions that are perhaps not as well targeted as they could be." That, apparently, is what Napthine considers to be tough talk. Now, if opinion polls are right, he looks like losing office in today's state election, thanks, at least to some degree, to the efforts of his federal Liberal colleagues. Labor's advertising has linked Napthine with the unpopular Abbott and blurred the lines between federal and state Coalition governments very effectively. It is guilt by association, and Victorian Liberals concede privately it has worked. There are plenty of state issues at play in this election, of course. Napthine is hardly a charismatic leader - though his Labor counterpart, Daniel Andrews, is not exactly an inspiring figure either. The activities of a rogue MP damaged the Government's standing by turning Parliament into a soap opera. The loss of industries - car makers and an aluminium smelter - had Napthine asking a friend: "What black cats have I trodden on?" He needed a more convincing jobs strategy. But Labor has vulnerabilities too, especially links with the on-the-nose construction union and Andrews" extraordinary plan to tear up signed contracts for the $6.8 billion East West Link, if elected. The truth is the Napthine administration has not been particularly incompetent. It is hard to see why, on the basis of its own performance, it should become the first Victorian government for nearly 60 years to be given the shove after only one term. But it is not being judged solely on the basis of its performance. The Abbott Government is part of the equation. And not just because of the Budget. In the lead-up to the campaign there was outrage over the announcement that the Federal Government would bypass Parliament to impose indexation of petrol excise. Then Napthine's electioneering was overshadowed by controversy over Abbott's broken promise not to cut ABC and SBS funding, and the silly attempt to pretend he had made no such promise, even though just about everyone had seen it on TV. And the final days have seen more chaos in Canberra in what several commentators have referred to as Abbott's "week from hell." It included internal disagreement over the $7 GP co-payment. On Wednesday journalists were briefed it was to be dumped, but a day later Treasurer Joe Hockey announced it remained policy and should proceed. To suggest none of this has impacted on Napthine's prospects of clinging on to power is ridiculous. Labor advertising, almost subliminally, invites Victorians to use their vote as a kind of insurance policy - to install a Labor state administration as a restraint on Abbott. If Napthine's Government goes down the gurgler, the Abbott camp will do everything possible to try to ensure blame stays in Victoria. That is certainly where some of it will belong, especially since the Liberal campaign has been markedly less professional than Labor's. But a Coalition loss today should also give added urgency to the reappraisal Abbott is being pushed to make of what has gone wrong with his own operation and how it can be fixed. It was a state election in Queensland that prompted then Liberal Party president Shane Stone to write the secret 2001 "mean and tricky" memo warning that John Howard's federal government had to change or face a devastating defeat itself. Unless Napthine defies the odds today, there will be good reason for someone to write a memo to Abbott.