British politics: Westminster's malaise - FT.com Six months before the general election, pessimism surrounds the UK's main parties as they struggle to counter the march of the populists Darkest before the dawn: the Houses of Parilament on a foggy morning in central London. A sense of anger has developed towards the political class despite better economic conditions David Cameron called him a "fat arse" Conservative defector and vowed to crush him. But later this month Mark Reckless is expected to become the latest face of a remarkable popular uprising against the UK's political elite. The prime minister's allies had talked of the Rochester and Strood by-election on November 20 as "Stalingrad" - the moment the populist UK Independence party's advance would be stopped. Instead Mr Reckless, a former Conservative member of parliament, is odds-on favourite to win a second seat for Ukip, planting a purple flag in Kent. Panic over the rise of the populists is spreading across the Westminster establishment, which is turning on itself in a round of recrimination bordering on self-loathing. With a general election less than six months away, British politics is about to enter a volatile and unpredictable phase. Polls suggest voters regard the Westminster class as out of touch and incompetent. Conversations with senior members of parliament suggest they are not alone. "David Cameron is arrogant and treats us like worms," said one senior Conservative MP of his leader. His party is polling at around 30 per cent and is currently in the throes of another bout of eurosceptic self-harm. Or take this experienced Labour MP of Ed Miliband, the opposition leader: "It's terrible," she said. His personal ratings started off pretty bad and have got worse; he hardly ever seems to be out there campaigning or setting the agenda. We don't raise the issues that people care about. In a poll last week, support for Labour dipped below 30 per cent. Mr Miliband's leadership is the subject of open debate. If the trends continue, neither of Britain's main parties can expect to win an overall Commons majority in the election, which will be held on May 7. A period of instability and multi-party coalitions - possibly including minority parties as diverse as Ukip, the Scottish National party, Ulster unionists and the Greens - is a real possibility. This sense of anger towards Britain's political class might seem curious. After all, Britain is this year's star performer in the G7 and is set to grow by more than 3 per cent. Unemployment is tumbling towards 5 per cent, less than half the jobless rate in the stagnant eurozone. But many voters say they are not feeling the benefit. "We are in the sixth year of austerity, people's wages have been squeezed, people are finding their standard of living has been squeezed," says Alistair Darling, the Labour chancellor of the exchequer when the crash hit in 2008. What we are seeing is endless hopelessness. The statistics bear that out. A Populus survey found that only one in seven British adults said he or she could feel the benefit of the economic recovery where they live; more than half of voters in swaths of urban northern England said they could see no economic recovery in their area at all. Fertile ground Britain's main political parties have failed to address this pervading pessimism, but it has provided fertile ground for smaller parties, whether the populist Ukip or the SNP, both of which have channelled anger towards what they claim is a remote elite. Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats used to be the beneficiary of protest votes. But his party is now in coalition with Mr Cameron, so many voters see the Liberal Democrats as part of the problem. Mr Clegg summed up the mood as depressing and "very un-British." Addressing his party conference last month, he sounded frustrated at the gains made by Ukip, which has capitalised on anti-Europe and anti-immigration sentiment. Worried about your job? Your business? Your children's future? Your way of life?," he asked. No matter, just blame Europe/Brussels/foreigners/immigrants/the English/the south/professional politicians/Westminster/big business/anybody claiming benefits/even onshore wind farms. An anti-politics mood is hardly a uniquely British phenomenons but it does have some unique British characteristics. And if the mood continues, the next election could see a remarkable rejection of traditional politics. In these circumstances, the question becomes: can anyone win an outright majority in Britain's next election? And perhaps more pertinently, should anyone want to win? Global events have exposed the inability of the British elite to identify risks, let alone deal with them. From the financial crash, through the rise of Russian aggression in Ukraine to the surge in Islamic radicalism in the Middle East, Westminster politicians were initially blindsided, then appeared impotent in their response. But two issues represent the biggest challenge to British politicians: Europe and the dire state of the UK's public finances, which remain dangerously weak after six years of austerity. Contrary to widespread opinion in Europe, Britons do not spend much of their waking time dwelling on the EU's impact on their lives. Mr Cameron once warned his party that "banging on" about the subject simply made it look out of touch with the concerns of voters. But he has been dragged in to that territory - forced by his own party to concede an in-or-out referendum on EU membership if he wins the next election - because his opponents have turned Europe into a metaphor for a wider argument about political impotence. Nigel Farage, Ukip's leader, skilfully turned a dry debate about the EU into a more visceral argument about immigration: specifically Mr Cameron's inability to control migration to Britain because of the EU's rules on free movement. "The point about the EU and immigration is that they go straight to the issue of trust," says Dominic Raab, a Conservative MP. They have become lightning-rod issues because they symbolise the public's loss of faith in promises made by all politicians. But the more Mr Cameron is sucked into a debate on EU immigration, the more he confirms the public's fears that he cannot do much about it. His promise to cut migration into Britain to the "tens of thousands" will not be met, mainly because workers from elsewhere in the EU are attracted by the country's newfound economic dynamism. Angela Merkel, German chancellor, was quoted in the German press last week warning Mr Cameron that she would rather see Britain leave the EU than scrap the principle of free movement of workers. Polling suggests that whatever Mr Cameron's rhetoric on cutting immigration, only 11 per cent of voters believe he can deliver. When Mr Cameron turned up last month for a European summit, he found himself presented with an unexpected bill for €2.1bn - an additional contribution to the EU budget reflecting Britain's increased prosperity. The episode again seemed to suggest the prime minister is not in control; he is now engaged in damage limitation. The bill will now be paid in instalments and will be subject to the usual British budget refund or rebate. While Mr Cameron is offering a referendum on the EU, Mr Miliband's response hardly seems likely to bolster trust. The Labour leader never mentioned immigration in his conference speech, an oversight that he explained by saying he "forgot" to address it. Mr Miliband has effectively ruled out a referendum in the next parliament, even if Mr Darling said recently that one now seemed inevitable: "It's a boil that needs to be lanced," he said. Yet it is the state of the economy that remains at the heart of the malaise in British politics. George Osborne, chancellor, believes that voters will finally begin to see the connection between the recovery and individual wellbeing as real wages begin to rise and the fruits of his "economic plan" become visible. But voters are being asked to take that on trust, and trust in politicians is in short supply. So Mr Cameron has decided to leverage the Tory party's credibility on the economy by promising £7.2bn of unfunded tax cuts in the next parliament, along with possible cuts to inheritance tax and the prospect of an £8bn injection into the National Health Service. But as a Financial Times series will confirm this week, there are grave doubts inside the Treasury and beyond about whether such largesse is possible at a time when the deficit is still running at about £100bn. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the deficit will be 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2014-15, down from a peak of 11 per cent in 2009-10. In their attempt to persuade voters that they are offering a brighter future, Britain's political elite will go into the election promising either unfunded tax cuts or the idea that the deficit can be eliminated without significant pain: both propositions will stretch the credulity of voters. Mr Osborne has already indicated he intends to cut £3.2bn from the welfare bill with a two-year freeze on working age benefits, costing a typical working family £500 a year, to help balance the books in the next parliament. Labour believes the chancellor will raise Britain's sales tax again - a possibility that he has not denied. But even those measures would still leave a big hole to be plugged. Reassurance on the recovery Polling suggests the public are tiring of the austerity programme. Day-to-day public expenditure by government departments has been cut by £25bn a year between 2009-10 and 2014-15. Populus has found that only two-fifths of voters believe more cuts are required in the next parliament; the economic recovery seems to have reassured them that the country's fiscal problems are almost solved. That suits Mr Miliband, whose economic credibility trails far behind that of the Tories. His critics say Labour is in denial on a subject which will define the next parliament and continues to restrict the room for manoeuvre of any politician. Although Mr Miliband has said he wants to eliminate the deficit by 2020 at the latest, critics say he is neither preparing his party nor the country for the cuts that the next government will have to introduce to balance the books. Ed Balls, his shadow chancellor, announced last month to great fanfare that he would cut £100m a year off the popular child benefit bill that helps lower income families to support their children - a tiny fraction of the cuts he would have to implement in office. But his aides insisted this was "the most difficult speech he has ever had to make to a Labour conference." François Hollande, the French president, recently tested the idea of making fanciful promises during an election campaign only to run into harsh reality. His record low approval ratings are a warning to British politicians about trying to win over sceptical voters with promises - whether on immigration or tax cuts or deficit reduction - that cannot be delivered in office. The recent bloodletting at Westminster - Tory defections to Ukip, Labour attacks on Mr Miliband - reflects a profound lack of confidence among Britain's ruling classes that they any longer have the answers in an era of sluggish international growth and a global labour market that is holding down wages and living standards. It is notable that Britain's three most popular politicians are outsiders who do not have to deal with such problems: Boris Johnson, the populist Tory mayor of London, Mr Farage of Ukip and Alex Salmond, who recently stood down as leader of the SNP. By contrast, Westminster's cadre of leaders - many of them career politicians - struggle to find a compelling answer for those voters who see before them only "endless hopelessness." A Populus poll recently found that 56 per cent of all voters thought Britain's best days were in the past; only 19 per cent believed the country's best days lay in the future. Hope is in short supply - and the leaders of Britain's traditional parties have less than six months to deliver it. Ukip: Party chimes with voters" sense of victimhood Nigel Farage had just an hour's sleep after his UK Independence party won its first seat in the House of Commons, having forsaken his bed for the traditional surrounds of a local pub near Clacton-on-Sea in Essex. He emerged into the October morning sunshine bleary-eyed but with a clear message. He said voters in the Clacton by-election had concluded that a Westminster elite was "out of touch." Asked what the other parties could do to put that right, he said: "It is too late." Mr Farage's Ukip is the most dramatic expression of a sense among some British voters that they are victims rather than beneficiaries of globalisation, and let down by Westminster. The party is polling nationally at 15 per cent or more. The charismatic Ukip leader's victory party was held in a pub on the fringes of the satellite settlement of Jaywick, Britain's most deprived district. Jaywick, with its white working-class population and heavy concentration of retirees, is fertile territory for Ukip, whose voters fear the change that immigration to Britain represents - even if there are few immigrants living locally. Ukip draws its support from both disenchanted Conservatives - angry about the influence of Brussels in British life and immigration - and working-class former Labour supporters who feel let down by both the two main parties at Westminster. But they have a striking thing in common: they are pessimistic about the future. Polling by Populus found that 80 per cent of Ukip supporters said Britain's best days were in the past. This pessimism was lampooned by some - including David Cameron - as hopeless nostalgia for a 1950s Britain. The prime minister labelled Mr Farage's party as comprising "fruitcakes and closet racists." He regrets that depiction now. Instead, both Tories and Labour acknowledge that supporting Ukip has become a cry of pain from people who no longer feel they have a stake in the future and have lost faith in Westminster politicians to help them .