Philip Hollobone tipped as next Conservative MP to defect to Ukip Mr Farage said: "If you are a Conservative MP sitting on a small majority against Labour - and the further north of London you go, the bigger problem this becomes - you know you've lost next year. The Conservative Party is literally dying in the urban north the way it has in Scotland. It is for you to do the guessing game. Matthew Goodwin has already published a list of five Tory MPs who have no chance of winning on a blue rosette but might have a chance on a purple rosette. So let's see what happens. Mr Hollobone and Douglas Carswell, who last month became Ukip's first MP, acted as sponsors for Mr Reckless as he was sworn in to the Commons yesterday morning. Mr Hollobone has previously denied planning to defect to Ukip but was unavailable for comment. Conservative sources said that they were "keeping tabs" on a number of MPs, including Mr Hollobone, but insisted that they were "as confident as we can be" that he was not plotting to join Ukip. Speaking in Rochester, Mr Farage admitted that more defections were unlikely before Christmas. However, he said that he expected more MPs to join his party before May's election. He said: "I don't think people will defect immediately - I think people will sit and chew their teeth and have a think about things. My only comment on defections [among MPs] is that I would be very surprised if there were not defections between now and the general election. The other names on the list include Chris Kelly, the MP for Dudley South, Martin Vickers, the MP for Cleethorpes, and John Baron, the MP for Basildon and Billericay. Asked if these were the five MPs he was talking to, Mr Farage said: "Oh I can't remember." Mr Kelly announced in September that he would leave politics at the general election. Asked if Adam Holloway, another favourite among bookies to defect, was next to jump ship, Mr Farage said: "You had better ask him, I don't know." He said Ukip would target "a few dozen" seats aggressively at May's election. Michael Gove, the Chief Whip, who said earlier this week that he was 100 per cent sure that no more Tory MPs would defect, yesterday admitted that it was not impossible because he "can't read minds."