Romney Leads in Wisconsin, but Republicans' Focus Is on Recall Election Mitt Romney has a seven-point advantage over Rick Santorum in the Wisconsin presidential primary, according to an NBC News/Marist poll released Friday. Among likely Republican primary voters, Mr. Romney leads Mr. Santorum 40 percent to 33 percent, with just 7 percent saying they are undecided. Ron Paul has 11 percent and Newt Gingrich has 8 percent. But the Republican primary is being somewhat overshadowed by local politics. Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, is facing a recall election, and a majority of likely Republican voters said that they are watching the recall election more closely than the Republican presidential primary. In Wisconsin, the top two Republican candidates are drawing support from the same groups that have been backing them throughout the primary season. Mr. Romney does well among moderates, those who do not support the Tea Party movement, college graduates and higher-income voters. Mr. Santorum gets backing from very conservative voters, evangelical Christians, and Tea Party supporters. Wisconsin has a more moderate electorate, a favorable climate for Mr. Romney, with smaller numbers of Tea Party supporters and evangelical Christians. Among all registered voters in the state, President Obama had double-digit advantages over the two front-runners in theoretical matchups. Mr. Obama leads Mr. Santorum 51 percent to 38 percent and leads Mr. Romney 52 percent to 35 percent. Mr. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points over John McCain in 2008. On Friday, the petitions collected to recall Mr. Walker were expected to be certified by the Government Accountability Board of Wisconsin. So far, three Democrats have announced their candidacies. Among registered voters, 46 percent said they would support Mr. Walker, and 48 percent said they would support a generic Democratic candidate, with support along party lines, and independent voters divided. Approval for the governor's job performance also divides along party lines, with an overall approval rating of 48 percent, and 91 percent of Republicans approving and 84 percent of Democrats disapproving. And in the race for the open Senate seat vacated by retiring Senator Herb Kohl, 45 percent of registered voters said they would support a Democrat, Tammy Baldwin, to 40 percent who support a generic Republican candidate, with 16 percent undecided. The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted by landline and cellphone of 3,020 adults in Wisconsin from March 26 to 27, including 2,792 registered voters and 1,164 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for all voters and plus or minus 3 percentage points for likely primary voters.