Illinois moves into Republican spotlight Illinois is not used to playing a decisive role in choosing Republican nominees for president. In most US election cycles, the state's primary comes too late to make much of a difference. Even in 1988, when George H. W. Bush's victory in Illinois effectively killed off a challenge from Bob Dole, the win was only really a postscript to a resounding Super Tuesday in which Mr Bush had triumphed in 16 of 17 states. This year, Illinois ought to matter even less to the Republicans. Not even die-hard party members expect the state to vote for anyone but Barack Obama - the first president from Illinois since Abraham Lincoln - come the general election in November. Yet thanks to the drawn-out, inconclusive nature of the race for the Republican nomination, Illinois" primary on Tuesday is looming much larger than expected. "We're very pleasantly surprised that Illinois is in play and relevant," says Jonathan Blessing, chairman of the state's Republican party. It's good to have the spotlight on us for a change. When it comes to the party nomination, Illinois ought to be natural Romney territory. Its population is dominated by Chicago, whose greater metropolitan area contains two-thirds of the state's residents. Its sprawling suburbs are rich in Republican voters, most of them the wealthier, better-educated, more socially liberal and fiscally conservative types to whom Mr Romney appeals. "This is really an archetypal Romney state," says Kenneth Janda, professor of politics at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois. It should, therefore, be a perfect location for the frontrunner to deliver a knockout punch to the more socially conservative Rick Santorum, his main rival. While Illinois may be an atypical state for a Republican primary, its focus on the economy reflects the national mood. With unemployment at 9.4 per cent - well above the national average of 8.3 per cent and the eighth highest among US states - joblessness and growth are critical issues. Mr Romney and his backers have argued in speeches and television advertising in recent days that Mr Santorum lacks the knowledge of economics the nominee will need to face up to Mr Obama in November. "We are not going to be successful in replacing an economic lightweight if we nominate an economic lightweight," Mr Romney said while campaigning at a pancake restaurant in the Chicago suburbs on Friday. I am an economic heavyweight and I know how to fix this economy. Yet polls suggest the frontrunner's victory in the land of Lincoln is far from assured. Mr Romney had 35 per cent support among likely voters, while Mr Santorum had 31 per cent, according to the latest Chicago Tribune opinion survey, a gap within the poll's margin of error. A Fox Chicago News poll released last Thursday gave Mr Romney more breathing room, with 37 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Mr Santorum. However, that is not enough of a margin to make the Illinois result a foregone conclusion. That may be because, although Chicago dominates in terms of population, downstate Illinois, essentially, everywhere outside the windy city, contains many of the kind of committed Republicans who turn out for a primary election. "If we're able to come out of Illinois with a huge surprise win, I guarantee you that we will win this nomination," Mr Santorum told supporters in downstate Effingham at the weekend. Mr Santorum is popular downstate, especially in more rural areas, where the economy has been buoyed by high crop prices and Republican voters have more social issues on their minds. The voting trends in Illinois point to a little-reported trend in the race: that although Mr Santorum is a Roman Catholic who wears his religion on his sleeve, his appeal has proved much less successful with his fellow Catholics than with Evangelicals. That is clearly demonstrated in the weakness of his support base in Catholic-heavy Chicago and relative strength in more Evangelical downstate Illinois. Some analysts have cast the state as a "must-win" for Mr Santorum. Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, is among those who believes Mr Santorum "must prove he can win in a big northern state where the economy, not social issues, trumps. Illinois will prove a great test. However, it could be argued just as convincingly that it is Mr Romney who needs to prevent an upset and win strongly in Illinois to enhance his attempt to portray himself as the inevitable nominee. Illinois is unlikely to decide the Republican nomination. Prof Jandapredicts: "We'll get a mixed result, not the knockout punch Romney wants."