ANALYSIS: Treaty vote puts Irish austerity in the firing line By PADRAIC HALPIN Published on Thursday 1 March 2012 00:00 IRELAND'S gradual recovery from eurozone basket case to periphery pin-up faces a testing time after the government called a referendum on Europe's new fiscal treaty that will put austerity in the firing line. Prime minister Enda Kenny surprised parliament on Tuesday by announcing the vote - Ireland's fifth on Europe in 11 years. It will be first and possibly only plebiscite on a German-led plan for stricter budget discipline across the bloc. With a tight vote likely in May or June, the turnaround that has seen Ireland perform best in class among Europe's bail-out boys will be put on hold, just as Dublin's paymasters boast that its progress shows their plan to fight the eurozone debt crisis will ultimately prevail. The Irish rejected the two most recent European Union treaties, before passing them in repeat referendums only after concessions were offered. Voter support for the EU has cooled as living standards have slumped due to austerity often depicted as imposed by Brussels. But Dick Roche, a former European affairs minister who fought a decade of referendums, has said the government's task in convincing voters could be easier this time if it draws lessons from the past. "I remember having some fairly lonely days when I was offered a handful of canvassers in parts of rural Ireland that I had never visited before...Everybody will have to pull out the stops this time," Roche said. The ambiguities and impenetrability of the Lisbon Treaty doesn't arise on this occasion. The government sleepwalked into a first vote on the EU's institutional reform treaty that was defeated by 53 per cent of voters in 2008. Ministers were unprepared to counter opposition arguments that the text would affect Irish sovereignty on sensitive issues such as taxation, abortion and neutrality. The fiscal compact vote will be much more straightforward, and Kenny is framing it as one that will help Ireland's economic recovery and stability, the kind of argument that saw two-thirds of the electorate back the second Lisbon referendum in 2009. Kenny may be best advised not to repeat predecessor Brian Cowen's decision to invite eurozone leaders to Dublin to help sway voters. French president Nicolas Sarkozy got a frosty reception last time. The welcome would be even less warm this time around. The question may not be as abstract as the Lisbon and Nice treaties on EU institutions that were initially defeated. But the campaign will put the government's unprecedented austerity drive - a series of spending cuts and tax rises that has four more years to run - in sharp focus. While Italy, Spain, Portugal and especially Greece have all experienced public anger over spending cuts, Ireland has implemented equally harsh measures without significant social unrest, despite stubbornly high 14.2 per cent unemployment. However, pockets of protests on emotive issues such as hospital closures and job cuts for teachers have increased in size and frequency, particularly in rural Ireland, and it's there that the main referendum battle lines will be drawn. Opponents have dubbed the compact an "austerity treaty." Sinn Fein, the only major party campaigning for a No vote, has seen its popularity surge over its anti-austerity stance.