The Pope, Welsh rugby... and aspirin The authors explained that a grand slam is achieved "when, in a given season, one nation succeeds in beating all other competing teams in every match." Under this definition, 53 grand slams had been achieved from 1883 to 2008. Using complex statistical analysis, the researchers discovered an association between Welsh rugby performance and papal deaths, and no significant associations with the success of any other nations. They concluded that because of the Welsh victory in 2008, there was a 45 per cent chance of the Pope dying by the end of that year. Or, as they put it, three fifths of a Pope would die in 2008. Thankfully for the Pontiff, that didn't happen. Of course, what the research really showed was the fallibility of statistical association. It is not uncommon for studies to throw up associations that are purely down to chance, bias or some other influencing factor. Part of the assessment is the idea of biological plausibility - that a cause and outcome should be consistent with existing biological and medical knowledge. In the case of the Popes and Welsh rugby, common sense tells us that there can be no biological explanation and so we can put the finding down to coincidence. In the case of aspirin and cancer, it's not improbable that aspirin has some effect given that we know it has an effect on many biological pathways. But, without further detailed studies, we can't say for sure that it's not a chance finding. The research - like most academic work - is not really intended to provide a definitive answer to whether or not we should take aspirin to stave off cancer. Instead, it is a contribution to a body of evidence that builds up over time to give an overall picture. Multiple pieces of research, investigating multiple areas, are needed before any widespread change in clinical practice is considered. In fact, looking at the Lancet papers - there were actually three published looking at different aspects of the link between aspirin and cancer - they are not actually new studies but an evaluation of previous studies that looked at other benefits of aspirin but where doctors happened to note cancer rates too. That's not to say that the findings aren't a valuable contribution. But the studies are limited and more work needs to be done before we can describe for sure the exact link between aspirin and cancer. Until this is done, aspirin will still not be officially recommended to reduce the risk of cancer because, as we know, there can be side effects such as gastric bleeding. It's worth remembering that there are other lifestyle changes already proven to reduce the risk of cancer - such as stopping smoking and eating more vegetables - that have no side-effects. As for Wale's victory last weekend in the Six Nations, I think it's safe to say Pope Benedict XVI shouldn't worry too much. Drug found to help osteoarthritis comes too late for many sufferers Fantastic news for those - like my mum - who have osteoarthritis. Up until now, there was little that could be done to slow the progression of the condition in which the wear and tear of joints results in painful and limited movement. But last week it was announced that a drug that costs just £1 a day and is used to treat osteoporosis, strontium ranelate, has been found to alter the course of the osteoarthritis, rather than simply manage the symptoms. It is hoped that this will reduce the need for joint replacements. Each year 140,000 hip and knee replacements are performed on the NHS in England and Wales, at a cost of £1billion. Many osteoarthritis sufferers waiting for hip and knee replacements face unacceptable restrictions and waiting times as Primary Care Trusts and now, under the NHS reform bill, Clinical Commissioning Groups, try to limit the number of operations in an attempt to save money. My mum has been hobbling around using a crutch for nine months while being assessed for an operation. She can't get to the shops, has had to give up her literature class and going to the gym, and has difficulty managing the stairs in her first-floor maisonette. Many people, like her, are in pain while they wait. This is despite evidence showing that hip and knee replacements are highly cost-effective given the improvement in quality of life. While this drug will have an impact on people's lives, let's spare a thought for those for whom it's too late, who are at the mercy of NHS managers and their waiting lists. Smoke break Last week was bad news for smokers (is there ever a good week?). It was announced that 37p would be added to a packet of cigarettes. As someone battling to give up, I was dismayed but then rather pleased. At nearly £8 a pack, the cost is just the incentive I need not to give up giving up. Max Pemberton's new book, 'The Doctor Will See You Now," is published by Hodder.