Fantasy Focus: Notable Health Risks Here's my general feeling about what to do with some of the bigger health risks entering 2012: Justin Morneau: Morneau has missed 174 games over the past two seasons, with the biggest concern being his lasting concussion symptoms. Even if he is healthy, his value has taken a hit with his team's move to Target Field, which is tied for the second-lowest home run index (68) for left-handed batters since its inception, but after the obvious top-six first basemen, there's a big gap and an argument to be made that if healthy, Morneau would be next. Unfortunately, his health risk is severe, as his career could end at any moment, making him a better gamble in shallow mixed leagues than deeper A.L.-only formats with no replacement value. I'm avoiding him. Joe Mauer: Mauer is seemingly always battling some ailment, and it doesn't help that he plays the most demanding defensive position. He also has just one homer in 386 at-bats at home since the Twins moved to Target Field. There's no doubt Mauer is an injury risk, but most of his maladies have been singular and non-recurring, and he's a catcher with a career .323 batting average. Mauer's over/under for homers is around 10 for 2012, but if he can stay healthy, there's plenty of profit to be gained, as he's currently the fifth catcher off the board according to average draft position. From 2008 through 2010, he hit .340 while averaging 85 runs batted in and 93 runs scored, the latter being highly impressive from a catcher. I'll happily draft Mauer. Josh Johnson: There's a legitimate argument that Johnson is the best pitcher in baseball when on the mound. He has a career 2.98 earned run average in 725 1/3 innings, lower than just about any starting pitcher you can name other than Tim Lincecum. Johnson's combination of strikeout ability with a high groundball rate is rare, and he's extremely difficult to homer off. The Marlins" defense should be improved this year, and there are some suggestions the team's new park will heavily favor pitchers. Still, Johnson's shoulder has been a recurring problem, something not uncommon with pitchers who've had Tommy John surgery. Moreover, the problem was treated with rest and not surgery, so there's really no way we can know how healthy he enters 2012, although all signs have been positive so far in spring. The risk here is very real, so he better come at a discount. Tommy Hanson: Hanson is similar to Johnson, as he's a talented young righty who could pay huge dividends to prospective fantasy owners if he throws 200 innings. He also has a shoulder problem that was treated by rest in the off-season, and the fact he's changed his delivery could be a red flag. In theory, it would be great if altered mechanics put less stress on his arm and shortened his stride, as Hanson has allowed 81 stolen bases since his major league debut, which is the most by any pitcher in that span. But it's fairly unprecedented for a pitcher to make major adjustments at this stage of his career, especially one who has experienced quite a bit of success. Hanson also suffered a concussion during spring, and the shoulder ailment is a real concern. He'll most likely be drafted higher than I'm willing to grab him. Anibal Sanchez: Sanchez is currently sidelined with a shoulder problem of his own, but unlike Johnson's and Hanson's injuries, Sanchez's is new, as he finished last season healthy. Still, Sanchez has dealt with shoulder problems in the past, but the team claims the newest issue isn't serious. If that is true, he's one of my favorite breakout candidates of 2012. He had a 9.26 K/9 rate with a 2.93 BB/9 ratio last season, so it could be argued he actually broke out in 2011, as those are fantastic peripherals. I'm hoping the injury news knocks him down draft boards, where he can potentially provide a huge profit. Ryan Howard: Howard is recovering from a torn Achilles" injury he suffered while making the final out of the Phillies" National League division series against the Cardinals, and while early reports suggested he'd return in May, a recent setback with an infection puts his status up in the air. At this point, fantasy owners shouldn't expect more than half a season from Howard, and there's no telling how the injury will affect his performance once he's back on the field. Howard has averaged 133 R.B.I. over the past six years, but he slugged a career-low .488 last season and is now 32 years old. A typical second-round pick in fantasy leagues last year, Howard ranked as just the 52nd most valuable player according to Baseball Monster. There are at least 20 first basemen I'd take before Howard in fantasy drafts right now.