Threat to Assad remains despite claims of victory Bashar al-Assad is acting victorious, marching under the gaze of state television crews into the ruins of the Baba Amr district of Homs, the city bombarded by his forces for nearly a month. In TV footage this week, the Syrian leader is seen surrounded by loyalists described as residents, though most of the inhabitants have fled. He blames his enemies for the devastation and promises to rebuild Baba Amr. Mr Assad's tour was another grotesque show of force aimed at humiliating the rebellious people of the district, who faced collective punishment for allowing Free Syrian Army fighters to protect them. It was also a manifestation of a renewed self-confidence following the regime's seizure of a series of strongholds that had fallen under rebel control and brought the armed opposition dangerously close to the gates of Damascus. In just a few weeks the political dynamics, too, have given Mr Assad some encouragement. The Syrian opposition's efforts to unify take one step forward and two steps back while its appeals for international military intervention fall, more flatly than ever, on deaf ears. Meanwhile, the Arab League's calls on Mr Assad to hand over power to his vice-president have been muffled by a fuzzier international plan that demands the Syrian leader empower an interlocutor to conduct a dialogue with his opponents. The Friends of Syria coalition meeting in Istanbul this weekend will threaten more sanctions and greater accountability for the regime's brutality - but it will not offer a convincing road map for its ousting. It is against this background that Syria's strongman indicated his acceptance of the six-point peace plan put forward by Kofi Annan, the joint Arab League and UN special envoy. Based on a compromise between the five big powers on the UN Security Council (including Mr Assad's supporters in Russia and China) the plan calls for an UN-monitored ceasefire, the pull-out of troops from cities, freedom of assembly, and a political dialogue between the regime and the opposition. With Moscow declaring its backing for Mr Annan, Damascus might have had little choice but to follow the line. Yet the shelling and killing show no sign of abating. And in the Syrian context, agreeing rarely means implementing. "My own experience with him [Mr Assad] is you want to see steps on the ground and not just take his word at face value," Robert Ford, the US ambassador to Syria, told US lawmakers on Tuesday. Even if Mr Assad, as some pro-government media suggest, is poised to announce the end of military operations, he will more likely play for time, arguing over every step of the Annan plan, and attempting to blame the opposition for failing to abide by its end of the bargain. Three months ago, he gave the nod to the dispatch of Arab League monitors then proceeded to manipulate their mission. Mr Assad, however, might also be helped this time by the uneasiness among leaders of the opposition to an Annan blueprint which fails to guarantee the end of the Assad regime. It is unlikely that the main opposition umbrella, the Syrian National Council, can control the disparate, localised groups of fighters on the ground grouped under the banner of the FSA. Some diplomats say that for all his defiant attitude Mr Assad knows, and Moscow is constantly reminding him, that his recent gains bring only temporary relief, with the rebels regrouping and receiving heavier weapons from their Arab supporters. Trying to play games with Mr Annan - and international monitors - is also trickier than with the Arab League. It could risk exhausting the patience of Moscow and Beijing. Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, has warned that Mr Annan's proposals may be the last chance to avoid a "prolonged and bloody" civil war. The problem for Mr Assad, however, is that the Annan plan gives no relief from the most dangerous threat he faces. That threat has never been from the armed rebels but from the peaceful demonstrators who continue to stage protests more than a year after the eruption of the revolt. "As soon as a ceasefire takes hold, Bashar falls because the people will be on the streets in millions, even in Damascus," says Samir Seifan, a Syrian economist who has joined the opposition. There will be no need for the FSA whose members know that demonstrations are what will bring down the regime. Mr Assad, insists Mr Seifan, can score military gains but he cannot win the war against the popular uprising.