Syria: Homs 'devastated' says Valerie Amos The International Committee of the Red Cross said that its local affiliate, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, was able to distribute food and medical supplies. However, they discovered that the ruins of Baba Amr were largely abandoned. After this military victory against the rebels, diplomats judge that Mr Assad is in a stronger position and that he could survive for some time. "There are various scenarios for change, but there isn't a clear mechanism right now for achieving that," said one. The United Nations Security Council has failed to pass a resolution on Syria after Russia and China vetoed an earlier draft that would have called on Mr Assad to stand down. While economic sanctions have been imposed, Western powers have ruled out direct military intervention. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, told the Senate armed services committee yesterday that there were plans for enforcing a no-fly zone and providing humanitarian relief, but the risks of any involvement would have to be carefully assessed. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, said that "unilateral action" would not "make sense" and nor would supplying the rebels with weapons. But he said that America would offer non-lethal aid to Mr Assad's opponents. Simon Collis, the British ambassador to Syria, who has returned to London following the closure of the embassy in Damascus over security concerns, said the prospect of Mr Assad surviving the revolt could not be ruled out. "I can't say that is impossible from an analytical point of view," he said. I certainly don't think it's likely and certainly not desirable. For all the horror over atrocities against civilians, the Syrian president retains the support of most of the ruling elite, while the armed opposition is weak. Officials believe the country's leadership has been encouraged by its ability to crush the uprising in key locations such as Homs, and retain its control of the two major cities, Damascus and Aleppo, even if this has come at the cost of some 7,000 lives. Some 70 per cent of the officer corps is from Mr Assad's minority Alawite sect, while the number of defections to the rebels - probably 10,000 or 20,000 soldiers - is only a fraction of the army's total active strength of 220,000. The great majority have also been Sunnis, suggesting that Syria's most significant minorities are either backing the regime or sitting on the fence. The Free Syrian Army, the main rebel movement, has inadequate weapons, no proper command structure and fewer fighters than its leaders claim. Its nominal commanders have minimal control over militias fighting in the field. Toby Dodge, Senior Middle East Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that Syria's insurgents could not defeat Mr Assad's forces. At present, they were more of an "irritant" to the regime than a threat, he added. Mr Dodge predicted a "form of bloody attrition" whereby the Syrian army seeks to retain control over the cities and most of the country in the face of sporadic rebel attacks. But Mr Assad's Achilles' heel is state of the Syrian economy, which is buckling under the weight of isolation and sanctions, especially a European Union oil embargo. This is steadily eroding the regime's popular support, particularly among the Sunni mercantile class in Damascus and Aleppo. While Mr Assad can probably hang on for months, his eventual downfall remains the most likely outcome. "In the long run, he's falling," added a western diplomat.