The big four, CBA, Westpac, ANZ and NAB, are celebrating $27.4b in profit. Will it all end in tears? GAIL Kelly was exactly on the money with Westpac's cash profit of $7.097 billion. The 8 per cent rise is right in the middle of what brokers were expecting from our second biggest bank and investors will applaud the 88c dividend and 10c a share special dividend. However, the really big question now that all four big banks have reported their full-year profits - which were up 8.7 per cent to a total $27.4 billion - is how they will perform in the coming year. The property market is showing some signs of growth, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, so all of the banks will be hoping that the long period of sluggish loan growth is coming to an end. Westpac has been deliberately conceding a bit of market share in the mortgage market in the past year as it improved profit margins and bad debt performance, but having a home ground advantage in NSW could help it pick up more mortgages in the coming year. The difficulty for all of the banks in a low interest rate, low credit growth environment is remaining disciplined enough to keep bad debts low and falling, and margins slim but soundly profitable. What usually happens is that some of the excitement of a long-awaited increase in loan growth is reflected in heightened competition between the banks as they fight to maintain or increase their market share figures. Sooner or later that ends in tears with bad debts rising and profits and dividends slipping, particularly if the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority also toughens up the capital requirements for the banks, which seems likely.