Syrians on Both Sides of the War Increasingly See Assad as Likely to Stay BEIRUT, Lebanon - A growing number of Syrians on both sides of their country's conflict, along with regional analysts and would-be mediators, are demanding new strategies to end the civil war, based on what they see as an inescapable new reality: President Bashar al-Assad is staying in office, at least for now. They say the insistence from the United States-backed opposition that Mr. Assad must go before peace talks can begin is outdated, failing to reflect the situation on the ground. Rather, they say, a deal to end or ease the violence must involve Mr. Assad and requires more energetic outreach to members of his government and security forces, with concrete proposals and reassurances that could bring compromise. They also contend that the American-backed exile opposition coalition that remains at the center of Washington's policy has little relevance and no respect from combatants on either side. These critics of American policy say that the United States and its coalition ally are helping guarantee that diplomacy remains paralyzed as Syrians die. On Friday, the exile coalition declared it would not attend a meeting in Moscow that would have brought it together with Syrian government officials for the first time, albeit to focus narrowly on addressing Syria's deepening humanitarian crisis. The sticking point: Moscow also invited Assad opponents who are more willing to compromise. The critics say there is no indication that Mr. Assad is headed for imminent defeat; indeed, he seems to be increasing his grip on parts of the country. So they are reluctantly embracing a scaled-down goal of a transitional government that in the medium term includes Mr. Assad. The best hope, they say, is to gradually blunt the violence in a Syria that will long remain divided among areas dominated by jihadist fighters, more-moderate elements of the opposition and a transitional government. Changing course is urgent, the critics say, because as the prospects for the peace talks in Geneva recede, Syria is falling apart. In the north, extremist jihadist groups are terrorizing residents, clashing with rival rebels and establishing a base that poses threats beyond Syria's borders. Hunger and disease are on the rise. Polio is resurgent. More than nine million Syrians have been displaced from their homes, the equivalent, by percentage of the population, of more than 100 million Americans on the move. "There is a sense of surreality" to United States policy, said Ryan C. Crocker, a former ambassador to Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and now the dean of the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. " "Assad must go." Well, Assad isn't going to go. Mr. Crocker and others say the current approach fails to capitalize on a growing center of Syrians exhausted by the war who have lost their enthusiasm for either side and fear that Syria is becoming a failed state. Dozens of interviews with a broad spectrum of Syrians across the country bear out the growth of such a group, who often call themselves the "gray" middle. Many complain that no one represents them in what has become, like the Lebanese civil war that dragged on for 15 years, an international proxy war that extremists and profiteers on both sides have a vested interest in prolonging. In interviews on opposite ends of West Beirut in recent days, two Syrians from opposite sides of the conflict - an antigovernment activist married to a rebel commander and a government supporter with ties to members of the security establishment - expressed similar feelings: a passionate love of Syria and a desire to end the destruction and killing. They proposed opposite compromise solutions. The rebel's wife said Mr. Assad could stay as long as the security forces were completely overhauled. The government supporter called for replacing Mr. Assad, but keeping the core of the military and security leadership in place. Several people familiar with the official diplomacy say that Western diplomats have quietly met recently with one or two Syrian officials and government-connected figures, but have offered them little of substance. "The best thing the West is offering Assad now is a cell in The Hague," said Randa Slim, a research fellow at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East Institute, who is closely following official and unofficial efforts for dialogue, referring to the location of the International Criminal Court. But any deal, she said, "is bound to involve people with blood on their hands." "There are no saints in wars," she continued. Hwaida Saad and Mohammad Ghannam contributed reporting.