Defunct GOCE research satellite expected to crash to Earth in next few days Scientists expect that the GOCE research satellite will crash to earth over the next few days. Picture: ESA/AOES Medialab Source: Supplied THE European Space Agency says its GOCE research satellite will crash to Earth on Sunday night or during the day on Monday, but debris is unlikely to cause any casualties. Scientists say the 1100 kilogram satellite already has fallen to an altitude of 170 kilometres and is spiraling steadily downward. Once it reaches an altitude of 80 kilometres the earth observation satellite will break apart and four-fifths will burn in the atmosphere. ESA said that humans are 250,000 times more likely to win the lottery than to get hit by the debris weighing up to 90 kilograms that may survive the breakup. GOCE was launched in 2009 to map the Earth's gravitational field. It ran out of fuel last month, ending the mission.