Forecasters warn of 'triple dip' recession Economists at Morgan Stanley believes Thursday's GDP first estimate by the Office for National Statistics will show that the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent between January and March of this year. The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2012 and figures published last week showed that unemployment rose by 70,000 between December and February. Jonathan Ashworth, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said that Britain's construction industry is performing particularly badly. The sector has been hit badly by the weak housing market and the reluctance of banks to lend. Mr Ashworth said that if this week's growth number is as bad as he fears he would expect the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to embark on another round of Quantitative Easing at its May meeting. After nearly three years of stagnation we need to see decisive evidence this week that a strong and sustained recovery is finally underway or the Chancellor will be in real trouble.