Optimism over North Korean bluff dims by the day THESE days, those who make a living from analysing security developments in Asia get paid for being pessimistic - many of the classic historical ingredients for large-scale conflict exist. The potential for miscalculation leading to escalation is arguably higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The risk of serious conflict between China and Japan over maritime territory in the East China Sea is growing, and the prospect of a naval clash in the South China Sea is real.