Mobile phone at 40: high-tech talk Past IET President Dr Mike Short says the coming years will see mobile innovation continue to change how we live. In a world where a Nokia phone can last for more than a month on a single charge, and where individual models have sold more than 150million units, the power of technology to change - and to save - lives cannot be overstated. Not everyone, however, believes that such progress has made things simple. Mr Cooper himself told a privacy conference in Madrid as far back as 2009 that today's phones try to do many things for too many people. He's previously criticised the Apple iPhone for being overly complicated and hard to use. Martin Cooper, inventor of the mobile phone "Whenever you create a universal device that does all things for all people, it does not do any things well," he said. Our future I think is a number of specialist devices that focus on one thing that will improve our lives. And indeed, he's surely right to say the mobile phone continues to evolve. It now takes pictures far better than many digital cameras, can hook up to scales and blood pressure monitors, as well as hosting games that keep all generations entertained for hours. As Dr Jon Agar, senior lecturer in science and technology studies at University College London, and author of Constant Touch: A Global History of the Mobile Phone, put it, "Cooper's assertion flies in the face of current trends, and I see no particular evidence to suggest that the trend towards more 'universal' mobile phones is going to change direction." "Mobiles are far more than mere phones," he asserted. They have the capabilities and flexibilities of a computer. Designers have made use of these capacities, and will continue to do so. The future of technologies is ultimately in the hands of users - and the vast majority of users have historically been loath to add to the very small number of technologies that we carry around with us. Indeed, while "feature phones" - the closest living relatives of the DynaTAC - are alive and well in the developing world, the rush for smartphones continues headlong everywhere they are affordable. "With close to 7 billion customers today, we already expect this year globally more mobile devices or subscriptions than people" said Dr Short. Since its first use 40 years ago, the mobile phone has completely changed our lives. The first decade was a research or a "demonstrator" phase, rapidly followed by analogue networks deployed over 10 years from the early 1980s largely based on carphones and used in business in the developed world. But it was in the early Nineties that the mobile phone took off. Dr Short calls it "the Digital decade." "This was when consumerisation and globalisation of mobile really took off," he says. It led to a further data adoption phase with the arrival of 3G and during 2003 - 2013 access to the internet and the wider use of smartphones became a reality. In 2012, however, for the first time some analysts claim that mobile phone sales fell. That's to a mere 1.75 billion, but the turning point is important. In 40 years, the phone has gone from zero to saturation point. That's a greater impact than television and most forms of travel. Mobile phones and devices are more inclusive globally than almost all other consumer electronics products. Access to the internet through mobile is empowering billions of people - especially those in emerging nations who will access the internet for the first time through mobile," says Dr Short. "I predict that the next decade will see much further use of data and 4G services, as well as enhanced capacity and coverage," he continues. This will be followed by more spectrum releases, and many more services, particularly video related. Based on current research new services and innovation will surely follow. 5G is being researched right now for the early part of the next decade. And indeed, mobiles are now about even more than people: machine-to-machine communication means that our phones now talk to Google and tell it what the traffic conditions are like, without us even knowing. "This is a welcome development that brings benefits of shared international innovation, connectivity, internet access and many new applications associated with people's education , transport, and health requirements," says Dr Short. It will also continue to propel this growth of services into connected cars, smart meters and smart cities. Everyone now has the power to innovate in a digital world, thanks to the marriage between the two great innovation platforms of the 21st century: internet and mobile. This combination will drive digital innovation everywhere as these technologies become ever more pervasive and useful to all people. So perhaps, in a way, Mr Cooper was right: these devices are now so capable, so complicated, they don't need people at all. Today's phones do things without us even asking: that may be Google Now, suggesting when to leave the office to make your next meeting or it may be Apple's iTunes suggesting what music you like. But if sales of mobiles are falling, it's not because we lack enthusiasm for what they can do for us. It's because they already do so much, the appetite in the West for the latest model has already been slightly sated.