Grand National 2013: Paul Moloney believes the race can be won or lost over the first six fences My theory is that a lot depends on you getting a good position and into a good rhythm over the first six fences. I'd go as far as to say the race can be won and lost in that first quarter of the race and that's all I want, not another thing, just to get into a nice rhythm early on. The question supporters of 12-1 chance Cappa Bleu, an 11-year-old who first shot to prominence when winning the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunters, is whether or not he can improve on last year's effort. "It's a job to say," explained the realistic Moloney. He's had a totally different preparation. He's only run twice and it will be a huge help that he didn't go in the Welsh National this time. He's had two starts. He didn't jump great first time at Carlisle and we slightly thought he had Aintree at the back of his mind, but he ran a stormer at Ascot behind Vino Griego in February. I was very pleased with the way he galloped to the line that day, so we're hoping. Last year nothing came home quite like Cappa Bleu after he had lost his position when impeded at the seventh fence. "I was always at the max, it was a bit like State of Play," he recalls. I was always in need of a fence to get some air into him. Often in a National there are only four still in it crossing the Melling Road, but last year there were 10 in front of me and, for once, they didn't seem to be stopping. But he kept responding. It was only from the back of the last fence to the elbow that a few started tiring. Ironically, if there was one National which got away it was State of Play's first National in 2009. He was the closest of the lot. He travelled so well but he stumbled at the 20th and then was nearly brought down at Becher's. Still, crossing the Melling Road I thought 'if I stay I win" and even going to the last I thought a good jump would seal it, but he folded at the Elbow. For me that was his chance. Cappa Bleu's big chance, Moloney hopes, is three days away. Aintree ground 'good to soft' On Tuesday Andrew Tulloch, Aintree's clerk of the course, described the going on the Grand National course as generally "good to soft with the ground a little drier on the grandstand-side." To maintain the ground in fierce winds, the course has been watered. "It's nice jumping ground," said Tulloch. It's on the slow side of good, which is just where we want it and what we set out to do. He said frost covers would not be deployed this week. The forecast is for minus 1C or 2C at night, but daytime temperatures of 8C. When the wind has dropped today you'd almost think it was spring. Silviniaco Conti, a faller three out when going well in the Gold Cup, will try to get his season back on track in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree on Thursday. He will face seven rivals. Oscar Whisky is among a field of nine for the John Smith's Aintree Hurdle and attempts to win the race for the third consecutive year. He will be ridden by A P McCoy for the first time as Nicky Henderson's stable jockey Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Grandouet.