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Revenue Decline Shows Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer Has Not Yet Gotten This Company Under Control (YHOO)
Marissa Mayer does not yet appear to have Yahoo under control, even though she has now been its CEO since July 2012.
Revenues slipped 2% to $1.2 billion in Q4 2013, but the stock tanked immediately after hours when investors realized that the underlying core business of Yahoo — display ads — declined 6% to $520 million during the last quarter, and down 9% to $1.9 billion for the full year.
And then Yahoo lowered its guidance for the current quarter.
And then it declined to give full-year guidance in favor of a vague promise that there will be growth in late 2014.
CFO Ken Goldman also admitted during the call that the company cut jobs in Q4 — even though that period is usually the biggest and busiest at companies dependent on ads.
In other words, this is one of very few major online advertising businesses that is somehow unable to increase its revenue during one of the greatest bull markets in ad sales the planet has ever seen. Internet ad revenue generally was trending up 18% last year.
A few days ago, Mayer fired the man she had hired only one year before to generate ad revenue. COO Henrique De Castro walked out the door with a $109 million pay packet. The fact that he was Mayer's choice, and that he delivered such rotten results, shows you how far from the mark she is right now. That, perhaps is why Mayer said on the call that she would not replace him and instead personally take a more active role in ad sales.
And where is the revenue from Tumblr, acquired in the middle of 2013 for $1 billion?
Not mentioned, again, in the earnings release. Tumblr is one of Yahoo's traffic bright spots, and its addicted users churn through hundreds of millions of pageviews a month. Yet it makes negligible revenues.
Here are the top and bottom lines:
- Revenues ex-traffic acquisition costs: declined 2% to $1.2 billion.
- Earnings per share: 46 cents.
- Full year 2013 revenue: $4.68 billion, down 6%.
That's a huge beat on the bottom line. The stock rose 1.4% after hours but then immediately declined nearly 6% when it emerged that Yahoo's display ad business had gotten smaller again — this time by 6%.
Yahoo also lowered its guidance to below analysts' expectations, according to CNBC:
Meanwhile, Yahoo said it expects current-quarter non-GAAP net income of between $130 million and $170 million, well below forecasts. In addition, the company sees current-quarter sales of between $1.06 billion $1.1 billion ex-tac, versus expectations for $1.08 billion.
The bottom line for the full year was hurt somewhat because it compared poorly with the year before, when Yahoo benefitted from a sale of Alibaba stock. Alibaba is the huge Chinese trading site that Yahoo owns a valuable stake in:
GAAP net earnings for the full year of 2013 was $1,366 million, a 65 percent decrease compared to $3,945 million for the prior year (which included a net gain related to the sale of Alibaba Group shares of $2,755 million).
But Yahoo is still contracting as a company. Here are the top line revenues over time:
The mix of ad prices to total ads sold is hurting Yahoo over time, with search performing better than display:
Once again, Yahoo's display ad business withered while its search ad business picked up the slack:
- Display revenue ex-TAC [traffic acquisition costs] was $491 million for the fourth quarter of 2013, a 6 percent decrease compared to $520 million for the fourth quarter of 2012. Display revenue ex-TAC was $1,737 million for the full year of 2013, a 9 percent decrease compared to $1,899 million for the prior year.
- Search revenue ex-TAC was $461 million for the fourth quarter of 2013, an 8 percent increase compared to $427 million for the fourth quarter of 2012. Search revenue ex-TAC was $1,699 million for the full year of 2013, a 6 percent increase compared to $1,611 million for the prior year.
CEO Marissa Mayer glossed over her shrinking media sales business and asked investors to focus on the traffic increases:
"I'm encouraged by Yahoo's performance in Q4 and 2013 overall. We saw continued stability in the business, and our investments allowed us to bring beautiful products to our users and establish a strong foundation for revenue growth ... We are extremely heartened by the year-over-year traffic increase we experienced in 2013, an early sign of return on our investments and the acquisitions we've made."
Here is the full earnings release.
Some notes from the call with analysts, as usual delivered on streaming video:
Mayer says "getting overall growth to a place we are happy with will take multiple years." She says Yahoo will see growth in late 2014.
Side note: Mayer pronounces gif as "jiff," which is technically correct!
Tumblr posts are up 40%, and mobile monthly users are up 30%.
Yahoo received 340,000 job applications in 2013!
CFO Ken Goldman says the 6% decline in display ads revenue masks underlying growth. Hmm.
Goldman says they are going to report GAAP revenues going forward, not ex-TAC revenues.
He declines to give full-year guidance.
Mayer says Yahoo is positioned to take advantage of mobile ad sales, and that mobile will eventually perform better than desktop.
Tumblr revenue ... Mayer mentions it but ... makes a sales pitch instead: average Tumblr post reblogged 14 times ... average Tumblr ad post is reblogged more than 10,000 times. Again, no indication of meaningful revenue at Tumblr.
Mayer notes that Yahoo's various digital magazines will be using Tumblr as their publishing platform. (Interesting that the platform is that flexible.)
A question on the De Castro exit. Mayer: "Ultimately Henrique was not a fit. That was a regrettable conclusion, and a conclusion we tried to avoid .... we are not planning to replace that position ... we have a strong sales team ..... it gives me the opportunity to be much more involved with revenue as we drive toward revenue growth."
Wow: Mayer seems to be saying she's going to get more involved in sales!
Goldman: The focus is getting the ship back to where we can grow again. He admits Yahoo cut jobs in Q4. "We do need to catch up."
Ouch! Another question on De Castro. Mayer: "Out of respect for Henrique I'd rather not comment on the past and his performance." But the future will involve "me having much more direct involvement with our sales leadership."
To Mayer's credit, she's really getting into the adtech weeds at the end of this call, talking about targeting and inventory like a pro. Which, of course, she is — it's just that we've never heard her talk in this detail before.
Click here or refresh this post for updates.
Here's what analysts were predicting prior to the release:
- Revenues: $1.2 billion.
- Earnings per share: 38 cents.
The call at 5 p.m. EST came after these recent events at the company:
COO Henrique De Castro left after little more than a year on the job, and exited with a $109 million pay package. He was CEO Marissa Mayer's first major hire, and first major error in judgment. Yahoo currently does not have a chief revenue officer, as a result.
Mayer has been diligently acquiring and launching a suite of new apps to transform Yahoo into a mobile media company. David Pogue now runs Yahoo Tech, Nick D'Aloisio runs the Yahoo News Digest app, and the company acquired Aviate, a mobile app search and organization division.
But analysts are focused on two things: Any signs of growth in the online advertising business, and the state of Yahoo's investment stakes in the Chinese trading site Alibaba and Yahoo Japan. Those holdings are mostly responsible for the recent increase in Yahoo's stock.
It would also be nice to eventually see some revenue attached to Tumblr, its most spectacular acquisition of the past couple of years.
See Also:


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Basra bŭs´rə [key], Arabic al Basrah, city (1987 pop. 406,296), SE Iraq, on the Shatt al Arab. Basra is Iraq's second largest city and principal port. Its commercially advantageous location, near oil fields and 75 mi (121 km) from the Persian Gulf, has made it prosperous, and oil is refined in the city. Petroleum products, grains, wool, and dates are exported. Basra was founded by the caliph Umar I, at the site of modern Az Zabair. It was a cultural center under Harun ar-Rashid and declined with the decay of the Abbasid caliphate. Its possession was long contested by the Persians and the Turks. Largely in ruins by the mid-14 cent., Basra was subsequently re-established on its present site. The British occupied Basra during World War I and used its port; they remained there until 1930. After World War I the construction of a rail line to Baghdad and the building of a modern harbor restored the city's importance. Due to its location on the heavily contested Shatt al Arab waterway, Basra was hard-hit by Iranian forces in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War. The port was further bombed by western coalition forces in the Persian Gulf War (1991), primarily to thwart covert trade. Basra is the seat of a branch of the Univ. of Baghdad. The name also appears as Bassora, Bussora, and Busra.
The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th ed. Copyright © 2023, Columbia University Press. All rights reserved.
See more Encyclopedia articles on: Iraq Political Geography

subset: commoncrawl


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Associated Press
BOSTON (AP) — Chad Johnson got the better of Ben Scrivens and the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
Johnson stopped 22 shots for his second career shutout, and four different players scored to lead the Bruins to a 4-0 win over the last-place Oilers on Saturday.
"I know my role, and it's not to be in every night, but it's to be in when I'm sort of called upon," said Johnson, who improved to 10-3 on the season. "It's nice to be able to get more games and get in there and get more comfortable and just try and help the team win.
"For me it's always just about the wins, but I think when you can add a shutout there, it's just sort of like a bonus point for myself."
David Krejci's 12th goal of the season, a power-play tally at 2:06 of the second period, started the scoring.
Dougie Hamilton, Carl Soderberg and Torey Krug all scored in the third for the Bruins, who won for the sixth time in their past eight games to maintain the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.
Johnson is a big reason why.
With starter Tuukka Rask set to play for Finland in the upcoming Olympics, Johnson has gone 4-0 in his previous four starts, all coming within the past 17 days.
"His record speaks for itself," Bruins coach Claude Julien said. "I think the way he played tonight, even though people are going to say he didn't get tested much, we know that's as big a challenge for a goaltender as any, especially when you're playing a team like that that does have a lot of skill."
Johnson could see even more of an increased role after the Olympics, too.
"It will be important to feel good about having Chad in net and knowing he can do the job," Julien said.
The Oilers are excited about their goaltender as well.
Acquired from Los Angeles on Jan. 15, Scrivens was coming off a scintillating performance against San Jose on Wednesday, when he set the NHL regular-season record for saves in a regulation shutout with 59 during the Oilers' 3-0 win over the Sharks.
He made 37 saves Saturday, including nine in the first period.
But just 26 seconds into the second period, with Edmonton breaking out of its own zone, Scrivens was penalized for tripping Brad Marchand just outside the crease, setting up Boston's third power play of the game.
Scrivens scrambled from side to side midway through the man advantage, denying a pair of doorstep rebounds, but his shutout run ended at 126 minutes, 41 seconds when Krejci's shot from above the right circle was deflected into the net by Edmonton's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
"I don't think he was trying to duplicate a 59-save shutout," Johnson said. "I think he just tries to help his team win. That's the same thing with me."
Hamilton netted his sixth of the season at 6:43 of the third when he scooped up his own rebound behind the net and swiftly slipped it past Scrivens' right leg, setting off a scoring spree for Boston.
Soderberg added his eighth of the season at 13:05 on a wrister that sailed over Scrivens' glove, and Krug's 12th of the season came on a power play with 4:18 to play off an assist from Zdeno Chara.
"He was comfortable in there," Oilers coach Dallas Eakins said of Scrivens. "It's unfortunate that they got the second and third one like that, but I thought Ben was fine.
"He looks comfortable to me in there and he's squared up and under control and that's what is important to me."
NOTES: Veteran defenseman Mark Fraser made his Edmonton debut after being acquired from Toronto for two prospects Friday. … The Bruins won their 12th straight against the Oilers, their longest active stretch versus any opponent. Boston's last loss came on Oct. 17, 2000. … Captain Andrew Ference, who signed with the Oilers as a free agent during the offseason, made his return to Boston after spending seven seasons with the Bruins, helping the team win the 2011 Stanley Cup. Ference received a standing ovation when shown on the scoreboard during a first-period timeout. … Jarome Iginla and Chara each had two assists for Boston.
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Steve Marx just posted a great overview about how to use Windows Azure Blobs and the Windows Azure CDN to deliver adaptive streaming video content in a format compatible with Silverlight's Smooth Streaming player. For those of you unfamiliar with Smooth Streaming, he also explains what it is and how it works and points to a great article, "Smooth Streaming Technical Overview" by Alex Zambelli for an even deeper dive.
You can get all the details in Steve's blog post. If you want to dive right in and start hosting Smooth Streaming content in Windows Azure Blobs, check out the Adaptive Streaming for Windows Azure Blobs Uploader project on Code Gallery, a command-line tool and reusable library for hosting adaptive streaming videos in Windows Azure Blobs.


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Spring Brings Host of Texas State Parks Repair Projects
April 1, 2010
Media Contact: Rob McCorkle, TPWD, (830) 866-3533 icle__media__contact">Media Contact: Rob McCorkle, TPWD, (830) 866-3533 or firstname.lastname@example.com; Scott Stover (512) 389-4849 or email@example.com
Note: This item is more than 12 years old. Please take the publication date into consideration for any date references.
AUSTIN — Texas state park visitors will soon be benefitting from a full slate of major repair projects getting under way this year that are designed to rejuvenate the aging Texas state park system and greatly improve customer service, thanks to bond funding authorized by the Texas Legislature and approved by statewide voters.
General obligation bonds have been sold to fund more than $69 million in repairs and renovations to state park cabins, bathrooms, electrical and water systems, and other state park infrastructure. The majority of the funding ($44 million) for the various repair projects at more than 40 state parks comes from the sale of Proposition 4 general obligation bonds which were overwhelmingly approved by voters in 2007 to fix up parks. The Legislature also approved the sale of $25 million in bonds to dry berth the Battleship Texas.
While the dry berthing of the battleship isn't expected for a few years, state park capital repair projects have already been completed or are under way at such places as Goliad and Sheldon Lake state parks. And dozens of other projects — from the West Texas mountains to the East Texas piney woods — have contractors in place and await launch.
"We are grateful to the Legislature for providing the funding needed to ensure that our state parks are getting better all the time," said Carter Smith, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department executive director. "I ask our park customers to please pardon our dust while repairs are underway to make future visits more comfortable and enjoyable."
Several park projects, such as extensive renovations to Civilian Conservation Corps-built structures dating to the 1930s and replacement of decades-old plumbing at Bastrop and Buescher state parks, will be more noticeable than others once construction is completed. Park visitors will find other improvements to water and wastewater systems, plumbing and electrical grids less obvious, but such big-ticket projects are nonetheless critical for visitor comfort and safety. Still other projects at Cedar Hill, Huntsville and Lake Whitney state parks, to name a few, will bring restrooms and other facilities into compliance with the Americans With Disabilities Act.
Some capital repair projects will address the most-cited concern among Texas state park visitors: aging and deteriorating bathrooms in state park campgrounds and cabins. So says Scott Stover, deputy director of TPWD's Infrastructure Division, who is overseeing the massive state park capital repair program that is being implemented under a new, streamlined system that groups projects regionally to increase efficiency.
TPWD has budgeted well over $1 million dollars to replace deteriorating galvanized plumbing in six of the historic cabins, replacement of electrical systems in the recreation hall and general improvements at the golf pro shop at Bastrop State Park, all structures built by the CCC more than 60 years ago. A $395,000 project at Brazos Bend State Park calls for installing new plumbing fixtures in 30 year-old restrooms and making them ADA compliant.
The restrooms at popular Lake Casa Blanca State Park in Laredo, too, have seen better days. Work crews will be replacing worn out comfort stations with five new prototypical restroom structures.
Daingerfield State Park in northeast Texas will benefit from more $4 million in renovation projects. The park's 75-year-old Bass Lodge, concession building and boat house will undergo extensive renovations. In addition, the park's existing restrooms will be replaced with new facilities and made ADA-compliant, and the park's wastewater system will be replaced.
Visitors to the state's perennial overnight camping leader, Garner State Park, will soon see the results of extensive repairs to screened shelters in the Oakmont and River Crossing campgrounds and replacement of a non-compliant comfort station in the Oakmont area. In addition, the park's 17 CCC-era cabins currently are being renovated.
Four of TPWD's historic sites will see much-needed improvements, as well.
In east Texas at Mission Tejas State Historic Site, the fire-damaged headquarters will be demolished and removed, and existing restroom in the picnic/day use area and campgrounds will be renovated. More than $1 million in wastewater treatment system replacement and repairs are slated at San Jacinto Battlegrounds.
At Longhorn Cavern, workers will be replacing the old cavern lighting system originally installed in 1938 along 6,000 feet of passages. The total cost of the repairs is estimated at more than $700,000.
TPWD construction crews already have repaired and repainted historic structures at the Sauer-Beckmann Living History Farm at Lyndon B. Johnson State Park & Historic Site near Stonewall, and are renovating the Danz log cabins and will soon start on making the park's visitors center, bath house and comfort stations ADA-compliant.
Stover expects all state park repair projects to be completed by the end of next summer. In the meantime, he notes, TPWD recently received Legislative Budget Board and other state bonding agency approvals of $38 million in planned FY10-11 general obligation bond projects that will address other repair needs at state parks, fish hatcheries, wildlife management areas and support infrastructure.


text: Reporting from the digital front! 20/04/201623/10/2016 / The Android Collective / Leave a comment The Android Collective faces the most profound media revolution in the history of mankind. It explores interactions and dependencies of human beings and machines. Futuristic fantasies and thought experiments draw up visions of the future and raise the question of what a world inhabited by cyborgs and technically modified 'overhumans' would look like.


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Pumpkin Mousse
• 1 envelope (¼ oz.) unflavored gelatin powder
• 1 (15-oz.) can pumpkin (not pie filling)
• 1 cup granulated sugar
• 1½ cups well-chilled heavy cream
Spice Cake
• 4 tbsp. (½ stick) unsalted butter, plus extra for buttering the pan
• 3 large eggs
• ½ cup sugar
• ½ cup cake flour
• ? tsp. kosher salt
• ¼ tsp. cinnamon
• ? tsp. nutmeg
• ? tsp. ground cloves
Brandy Syrup
• ¼ cup sugar
• ¼ cup brandy or cognac
Toasted Pecans
• ½ cup pecan pieces
• 2 tbsp. unsalted butter
• 1 pint caramel ice cream, softened
To make the mousse, put ¼ cup cold water in a small heat-proof bowl and sprinkle the gelatin over it. Set aside for 10 minutes for the gelatin to soften.
In a large bowl, whisk together the pumpkin and sugar. Meanwhile, set the bowl of softened gelatin over a pan of simmering water and cook until the gelatin is clear. Immediately whisk the hot gelatin mixture into the pumpkin mixture.
In the bowl of an electric mixer fitted with a whisk attachment, whip the heavy cream until soft peaks form. Fold the whipped cream into the pumpkin/gelatin mixture. Chill for at least 3 hours or overnight.
To make the spice cake, preheat oven to 350°F. Butter and then line bottom of 9-by-13-inch rimmed baking sheet with parchment paper, leaving a 2-inch overhang at each end. Butter paper.
Line a fine mesh sieve with cheesecloth. In a heavy-bottomed saucepan over mediumlow heat, melt ¼ cup butter. Do not stir, but watch carefully. Eventually, solids will drop to bottom of pan. When they are dark brown, remove butter from heat and strain through cheesecloth into a medium bowl. Set aside and let cool until lukewarm.
In the metal bowl of a standing mixer, whisk together eggs and sugar. Set bowl over a saucepan of barely simmering water and whisk constantly until sugar has dissolved and mixture is warm to touch, about 3 minutes. Return bowl to mixer base. Using whisk attachment, beat at high speed until mixture has tripled in volume and has consistency of softly whipped cream (about 5 to 10 minutes, depending on mixer). While eggs are being beaten, sift cake flour, salt and spices into a bowl and set aside.
When eggs have tripled in volume, turn off mixer and remove bowl from stand. Sift onethird of flour mixture over eggs and use a rubber spatula to fold in gently. Sift and fold in remaining flour in two more additions. Stir 1 cup of batter into browned butter. Quickly fold butter mixture into remaining batter until just combined.
Pour batter into prepared pan, spreading evenly with a rubber spatula. Bake in middle of oven until top is browned and cake shrinks away from sides of pan, about 12 to 15 minutes. Invert onto rack, peel off parchment and cool.
To make the brandy syrup, in a small heavy saucepan over medium heat, stir sugar with ¼ cup water until sugar has dissolved. Add brandy. Let cool and refrigerate, covered.
To prepare pecans, in a small skillet over medium heat, melt butter. Add pecans and cook, stirring, until toasted, about 3 minutes.
To serve, trim ? inch from around edges of cake. Cut cake into 16 squares. Put ¼ cup mousse in bottom of each of 8 glasses and spread slightly. Sprinkle ½ tablespoon pecans over mousse and add a square of cake. Brush cake with brandy syrup. Lightly spread 1 tablespoon softened ice cream over cake in each glass. Repeat one more layer as before, except for ice cream. Instead, form an oval scoop of ice cream to top trifle: using two metal serving spoons, scoop ice cream with one spoon and put other spoon over top of ice-cream-filled spoon to mold. Repeat for remaining glasses. Serves 8.


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RALEIGH, N.C. -- Mike Glennon is a franchise quarterback.
That statement certainly will draw the ire of evaluators with a lesser opinion of the North Carolina State product, but my experience in the NFL as a player and scout leads me to believe Glennon possesses all of the traits to be an effective starting quarterback as a pro.
Measuring in at 6-foot-6, 222 pounds with A-plus arm talent, Glennon is a prototypical pocket passer -- the kind that dominated the NFL in the 1990s and still flourishes today. He is at his best when working off five- and seven-step drops in the pocket, delivering accurate strikes to receivers on intermediate and deep routes. Whereas some quarterbacks are most comfortable piling up completions on a variety of dink-and-dunk throws, Glennon is the master of the pro throw, pushing the ball downfield on deep comebacks, square-ins and post-corner routes. Additionally, he excels at throwing vertical routes following strong play-action fakes in the backfield.
When I watch Glennon, I see glimpses of Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco. These observations stood out to me while I studied six of Glennons's game tapes from 2012 (Tennessee, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson and Vanderbilt). I also traveled to Raleigh, N.C., on Wednesday to observe Glennon's pro day in person. Here's a complete breakdown of what I saw, both on tape and on the practice field:
Arm Talent
To earn a blue-chip grade in the minds of most scouts, a quarterback must display exceptional arm strength, velocity and zip consistently during his play. Glennon has all of that and might be the most gifted passer in the 2013 class. He has the capacity to make every throw in the book with zip or touch. He doesn't have any problem making rope throws to the outside portion of the field from the opposite hash. (This is the ultimate test of a quarterback's arm strength, and Glennon passes with flying colors.) In addition, he shows the ability to push the ball down the field 50-plus yards with superb touch and ball placement. Glennon understands how to change the trajectory of deep throws to provide receivers with enough time to run underneath his high-arcing rainbows. Given the fact that most offensive coordinators covet a quarterback with natural passing skills, Glennon's raw talent puts him right in the conversation as a high pick.
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One of the biggest knocks on Glennon is his lack of athleticism and mobility within the pocket. Critics suggest he's a sitting duck in the pocket, making it easy for NFL pass rushers to hunt him down off the edges. Moreover, critics wonder if Glennon has the ability to slide, avoid and step up to deliver accurate strikes within a collapsing pocket. Given the need for NFL quarterbacks to routinely make strong throws within a muddy pocket, the questions about Glennon's athleticism and mobility are warranted. When I watch Glennon perform on tape, I believe he displays better maneuverability than he gets credit for. While he lacks the quickness and agility to consistently avoid rushers in the pocket, I saw several instances where he would step up to deliver accurate throws against pressure. Now, these occurrences are not enough for me to upgrade his athletic assessment, but I've seen limited athletes like Drew Bledsoe, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Ryan thrive from within the pocket. I'm not concerned about Glennon's ability to make strong throws from a seven-yard launch point behind the center.
Decision Making
Another area of concern regarding Glennon's game is his penchant for turnovers. He tossed 29 interceptions over the past two seasons, including 17 picks in 2012. Although those numbers certainly stand out on the stat sheet, it is important to note that Glennon attempted 1,017 passes in his 26 career starts. That breaks down to 39.1 attempts per game, which is a lot to ask of a quarterback in a vertical passing attack with a number of high-risk throws.
As I broke down the tape in search of an explanation for Glennon's alarming interception total, I noticed that most of his turnovers were the result of poor footwork leading to errant throws from the pocket. When Glennon fails to set his feet or properly step into his throws, his balls sail woefully off target. Additionally, he took too many chances attempting to squeeze balls into tight windows over the middle of the field. While some turnovers are expected in a high-risk offense, the fact that Glennon can reduce his miscues from the pocket with better footwork and mechanics is encouraging. Now, he must find a way to take some of the instruction that he receives from coaches and put it into practice on the field. Truthfully, every quarterback in the 2013 class must refine an area of his game to become a productive first-year starter. Glennon is definitely in that boat.
Clutch Factor
Quarterbacks must be able to inspire confidence in their teammates by playing well in key moments. From executing flawless drives in two-minute situations to connecting on critical third-down plays in pivotal situations, the top quarterbacks in the NFL thrive under pressure. Glennon strikes me as a player who plays well in big games. This was particularly evident when I watched him lead his squad back from deficits against Florida State and North Carolina. He was outstanding in the UNC game, rallying his team from a 25-7 deficit. He finished the game completing 29 of 52 passes for 462 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. If not for the fact that his receivers dropped 11 balls in that contest, Glennon might have tossed for 500-plus yards (and the Wolfpack might have won, as opposed to losing in heartbreaking fashion).
Against Florida State, Glennon directed his troops back from an early 16-0 deficit to knock off the Seminoles at Carter-Finley Stadium. In doing so, he connected on 30 of 55 passes for 259 yards with two touchdowns, including the game winner with two seconds remaining on the clock. Most importantly, he converted three fourth-down passes, including one inside the 15-yard line on the game-winning drive. Given the importance of playing well in key moments, Glennon's display of poise and composure in the clutch suggests to me that he possesses the right mental makeup to be successful in the NFL.
Workout Evaluation
As I mentioned on "Path to the Draft", Glennon's workout wasn't your typical scripted performance designed to mask a quarterback's deficiencies. The N.C. State star primarily threw intermediate or vertical throws throughout the workout. From a series of deep comebacks and post-corners to a variety of deep crossers, posts and go-routes down the field, Glennon let it fly in front of 38 coaches and scouts (including Buffalo Bills assistant general manager Doug Whaley and New York Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg). He showcased exceptional arm strength and talent in a challenging workout that featured every conceivable throw in a playbook deeply rooted in West Coast offense concepts or three-digit passing-game principles.
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Moreover, the workout allowed evaluators to see him making throws that are customarily reserved for NFL quarterbacks on Sundays. This did not go unnoticed by the scouts in attendance. Following the pro day, I talked to several who left impressed with the structure of the workout and Glennon's performance on the day. Although he missed a handful of throws on intermediate routes, he showed a capacity to make line-drive throws through a slight headwind. For teams located in climates where the weather plays a factor near the end of the season (New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns, in particular), Glennon's ability to execute in those unfavorable conditions will carry weight in the final evaluation.
So, what about potential concerns from the workout? Well, there are still questions about Glennon's ability to make accurate throws out of rhythm. By that, I mean he must continue to demonstrate to coaches and scouts that he can drop back, move to his right or left, reset his feet and deliver precision passes down the field. In the NFL, the pocket routinely breaks down and elite quarterbacks find a way to maneuver and make accurate throws. Glennon's limited athleticism could lead to some issues at the next level; he must continue to refine his footwork, agility and body control to ensure consistent throws from the pocket.
Finally, Glennon must convince coaches and scouts he has the right personality to take charge in the locker room. Franchise quarterbacks must be able to inspire confidence in their teammates through their performance and verbal prodding. Even quiet leaders like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco have to step up and hold their teammates accountable by challenging them in one-on-one or small-group confrontations. Evaluators still have concerns about whether Glennon possesses that take-charge personality. When I asked Glennon about this following the workout, he pointed to the leadership styles of Manning and Flacco as examples of how he envisions his personality evolving at the next level. Furthermore, he told me to ask his teammates if they believed he had the moxie to be a leader at the highest level. If Glennon can convince enough personnel men that he is capable of leading a team in the right direction, he certainly can build a case to be one of the top quarterbacks selected in the draft.
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I've been one of Mike Glennon's biggest fans since the middle of last season. I believe he has all the physical tools that you covet at the position. I respect his intelligence (Glennon obtained a master's degree in liberal arts to accompany an undergraduate degree in business administration) and football savvy. I believe he is a second-round talent with the ability to emerge as a star in the right system.
In my opinion, the right system should consist of a philosophy that features a dominant downhill running game complemented by a vertical passing attack. From a personnel standpoint, it will be important for the team that acquires Glennon to have a workhorse running back in place to facilitate an effective play-action passing game. If I had to point to a blueprint for success, I'd focus on the Atlanta Falcons' development of Matt Ryan. Thomas Dimitroff provided his franchise quarterback with multiple threats in the passing game and surrounded him with a solid offensive line. If a franchise is willing to do the same for Glennon, he could also emerge as a franchise quarterback capable of leading a team into the postseason.


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AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo.—The Air Force's top general wants Congress to grant him the authority to trim the ranks to cope with $1 trillion in Pentagon budget cuts over a decade.
Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh told the Colorado Springs Gazette in an interview published Monday ( http://tinyurl.com/lghlxaf) that across-the-board cuts proposed over 10 years are a bad idea and a bad business model.
"We need help in planning for the future. We can adjust to any reality once we have a reality," Welsh said.
The first set of cuts, about $500 billion, was devised in 2008 by former Defense Secretary Robert Gates as a way to trim the wartime budget for the military over a decade. The second set, the ones worrying Welsh, were ordered by Congress under the sequestration budget deal.
The deficit slashing plan requires the Pentagon to make $500 billion in across-the-board cuts over 10 years, with no leeway to control what is trimmed.
"It's a bad business model," Welsh said.
Welsh said he wants to examine cutting bases and the roster because that's where the money is, making up 55 percent of the overall budget.
He said personnel costs for the service's 327,000 airmen lead the pack and have grown steadily for more than a decade.
Bases haven't been examined since a Base Realignment and Closure round in 2005. Welsh is joining other Pentagon brass who want to cut real estate.
Welsh said he wants a scaled-back Air Force that can conduct its traditional missions in the sky and space and play a role in the expanding arena of computer warfare.
How to modernize the force is a key focus of discussions. Welsh mentioned hypersonic craft, miniaturization and directed energy weapons, which include lasers, as key areas for research.
"Science and technology is important to a force that was born from technology," he said.
On other topics, Welsh said the key to tackling sexual assault in the ranks is to change the culture. He wants an environment where sexual assault isn't tolerated, but he said getting it done won't be easy.
Information from: The Gazette, http://www.gazette.com


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In the End: Review Topic
Welcome, all, to the review topic of my most recent (and last) epic, In the End. Read the epic itself here. This epic serves not only as the finale to the Dawn Duology (consisting of this epic and the last, Dawn of the New Century), but also as the finale to my Bionicle fanfic universe (aka the Shikaverse) in general. It's been a fun ride, but with me putting more time into establishing my professional writing career, I feel like the Shikaverse's time has come. There's not much to say here, except that I suggest reading Dawn of the New Century first, if you haven't already. Some familiarity with the Shikaverse* in general would help, but it's really only Dawn that you need to read first, which can be found here. Comments, criticism, reviews, etc. are all welcome . *You can find links to other Shikaverse stories in the red link to my library in my sig. -TNTOS-
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Hi and welcome all to my newest epic, In the End, the final book in the Dawn Duology and the final epic set in my Bionicle fanfic universe (aka the Shikaverse). This epic is a sequel to Dawn of the New Century, which you can read here. I highly recommend that you read Dawn first, otherwise this epic won't make a lot of sense. Table of Contents: Prologue Chapter I Chapter II Chapter III Chapter IV Chapter V Chapter VI Chapter VII Chapter VIII Chapter IX Chapter X Chapter XI Chapter XII Chapter XIII Chapter XIV Chapter XV Chapter XVI Chapter XVII Chapter XVIII Chapter XIX Chapter XX Epilogue With that out of the way, enjoy: Prologue 150,000+ years ago. . . . The tiny Sawori named Jinka ran through the castle hallways as fast as her short legs could carry her. She ran by guards, who recognized her as the King's messenger, servants scrubbing the floors (almost tripping over a bucket of water in her haste to reach the throne room), and a Heratonian noble who under normal circumstances she would have stopped to greet. Instead, she shoved him aside and muttered a half-apology, even with the knowledge that she would probably get in trouble for that later. Right now, she needed to find the King and tell him about the visitors who were waiting for him outside the castle. She had no idea who they were; however, she sensed that to stand against them would be every bit as foolish as standing against the storm, and probably more lethal. She eventually reached the large double doors coated in gold that protected the King's throne room like a pair of sentinels. It took her a few more minutes to argue with the actual guards to let her in. They insisted that the King wanted complete privacy, whereas she insisted that the King could not afford to ignore her message. They eventually relented, although she caught them muttering foul curses at her under their breath as they opened the doors. When Jinka entered the throne room, she couldn't help but glanced around in awe even as her feet carried her forward. Unlike the rest of the castle, the throne room was bathed in life. Instead of a carpet, a fine layer of grass covered the floor, while vines of various colors covered the walls and ceiling, twisted together to resemble paintings or wallpaper. A tiny stream with a bridge built over it flowed through the center of the room, emerging from the right wall and going down the drain at the other end. It was like stepping outdoors. At the other end of the room, the throne was bare. Worried, Jinka almost turned around to leave before a soft, though authoritative, voice said, "Jinka, what brings you here?" Startled, Jinka looked around until she spotted a large, well-armored being kneeling in the center of a small garden of flowers and vegetables in the lower left corner of the room. She wondered how she had missed him, because he was so much larger than anything else in the room, although she reminded herself that the King's armor was capable blending in with nature in ways none of the Sawori understood. With the King's eyes on her, Jinka bowed deeply and she said, "King Atuje, you have six visitors who wish to speak with you." The King of Life lifted a small watering can and poured some water on his flowers as he said, "Who are these six, Jinka? Emissaries from the south?" "No, my lord," said Jinka, shaking her head. "They're, well, they're hard to describe. I have no idea who they are or where they even came from. They simply demanded an audience with you." Atuje looked up at her. His eyes were searing, searching, as if he knew every secret she had ever held in her entire life. Few Sawori were capable of standing underneath that gaze and Jinka was no exception, shrinking back under his burning eyes as she would from a large fire. "Six strangers show up on my doorstep demanding an audience with me and you don't bother finding out their names, at the very least?" said Atuje. "I am disappointed with you, Jinka. I thought you knew better." The disappointment in his voice was perhaps worse than his gaze, prompting Jinka to say hastily, "Well, my lord, I can describe them to you. They're tall, but not as tall as you, and wear black cloaks. And they, well, they radiate this power that reminded me of yours, so I thought-" "I have no equals," said Atuje. "I would know about them if I did. You must be mistaken." Jinka wanted to agree with Atuje under the weight of his gaze and words, but something inside her – that stubborn spirit that had earned her a beating more than once as a child – kept her mouth going. "No, my lord, they really do radiate the kind of power you wield. It's different, obviously, but I can tell it equals yours." Atuje stopped watering his flowers. For a moment, Jinka feared punishment for her insolence, but then the King said, "Yes . . . you are right. I sense their power now. It is not insignificant, to be sure." Jinka breathed a sigh of relief. "Do you wish for me to go down and retrieve them, sir?" "No need for that," said an unfamiliar voice behind her. "We're already here." Startled, Jinka looked over her shoulder and saw the six visitors from before standing in front of the closed double doors. She didn't know how they had gotten there. She hadn't heard the doors open and they certainly hadn't climbed in through one of the windows, as those were closed shut. "I should be a more considerate host," said Atuje as he placed his watering can down and stood up. "My name is King Atuje, the King of Life and ruler of Heratone. What are your names?" The lead visitor took a step forward, causing Jinka to scramble out of his way so as to not be in the middle of things, like a good servant. "You can call us the Great Beings. My name is Angonce." "You did not introduce the rest of your friends," Atuje said. "Are they simply your servants or are you forgetful?" The one named Angonce shook his head. "Their names aren't important right now. At least, they won't be until we're done talking." "And what makes you assume I wish to speak with any of you?" Atuje asked. "You rudely barged into my throne room and refuse to tell me your names. To me, this seems like the genesis of an invasion." "Rest assured, King of Life, that we have no intention of taking your realm from you," said Angonce, gesturing to one of the windows. "We are already the rulers of our own world, anyway. And honestly, one world is more than enough to occupy our time, so why would we ever want another world?" "There are some beings who do not use reason," Atuje said as he picked a flower from his garden and sniffed it. "In my time, I've met more than a few power-hungry fools who let their desire to be the king of the hill blind them from logic and reason. How can I be certain you are not the same?" "Because you don't even know us yet," Angonce said. "But we have heard of your power and knowledge, Atuje, and that is why we are here." "Explain yourself." "There's one thing you need to know about us Great Beings," said Angonce, gesturing at his group. "The one thing we value above all else – above money, above power, above even our own people – is creation. We are creators by nature, scientists who want to figure out how the universe works. It is our duty as creators to learn as much as we can about everything. Ignorance rarely created anything worthwhile, after all; at least, that is our belief." "So you have come to me for training or knowledge?" Atuje asked. "You sound like experienced creators already." "Both," said Angonce. "We wish to be your apprentices for a short while, at least long enough to learn the one secret we know you hold." "And what might that secret be?" Atuje asked, dropping the tiny flower into the flowers at his feet. "The secret to creating life," Angonce answered. "True life, not just a robotic imitation. We have heard that you create beings and creatures that are every bit as living those birthed by nature, identical down to the last particle. We believe that the next step in our growth as creators is to create life." Curious, Jinka glanced at Atuje. All the Sawori knew about Atuje's secret, but none of them knew what it was. It was a secret Jinka was well-acquainted with, having had direct experience with it in the past. She only wished she could remember how Atuje had done it, although she supposed ignorance was for the best, as knowing how it was done would probably be useless information to her anyway. Atuje stepped out of his tiny garden, carrying a carrot that Jinka had not seem him pick, and sat down on his throne, which was made entirely of tightly woven branches grown to resemble a chair. When he sat down, he took a bite out of his carrot and crunched on it thoughtfully for a moment before addressing the Great Beings again. "That is perhaps the largest request anyone has made of me in the last ten years," Atuje said. "And it is also the largest request I will have to deny in ten years." A shift in the room's atmosphere made Jinka look at the Great Beings. Though they didn't appear to have moved from their current position, she sensed they were ready to act at any moment. Considering the sheer amount of raw power their forms radiated, Jinka figured a conflict between them and Atuje would level the entire land or at least the castle and the surrounding countryside. She just hoped it wouldn't come to that. "You deny our request?" Angonce said, the disbelief in his voice obvious, even though it was equally obvious he was trying to hide it. "Of course," said Atuje. "The knowledge needed to create true life is powerful. In the wrong hands, it could lead to untold destruction and chaos. Only a fool would hand out this knowledge to whoever asked for it. And I am no fool." Angonce took a deep breath and said, "Rest assured, Your Majesty, that we Great Beings have no intention of using this secret for malice. Our only desire is to create. Nothing more." "Have you heard the story of the logger?" Atuje said. Angonce shook his head, as did the other Great Beings. "Let me tell you it," said Atuje. "Once, a long time ago, there was a Sawori logger who discovered a large forest previously unknown to his people. It was a beautiful forest, so beautiful that he didn't want to cut down any of the trees, despite the high quality wood that was abundantly available. He chose to keep this knowledge a secret until one of his friends convinced him to tell the rest of the world about it. 'Think of the money you could make,' his friend said, 'by selling this wonderful wood to the rest of the world.' "Having spent his whole life on the edge of poverty, the logger agreed. He spread this knowledge far and wide to every corner of Heratone. When everyone heard of it, loggers from all over the country made a mad dash for the wood and leveled the entire forest in the process. Not a single tree survived the onslaught of wood-hungry loggers. The beauty that the logger had once loved so much was gone, so the logger – having nothing to look forward to but a continued life of poverty – killed himself, as these stories usually end." "I'm afraid we're not much for stories," said Angonce. "Nothing you say will dissuade us from getting that knowledge." "The moral of the story is that good intentions often have bad consequences," Atuje said. "Besides, I haven't even perfected the technique yet. All of my creations have never been truly living. They have always required some mechanical parts on my end so they can function. Jinka, come here." Trembling, Jinka nonetheless obediently approached her master. When she reached his throne, she stopped and stood with her back to the Great Beings. She tried not to look up at Atuje's face, as she had an idea of what he was about to do and looking at him would just make it worse. "Jinka is one of my creations," said Atuje, patting her gently on the head with one of his heavy hands. "One of the best, in fact. She is the only one who has managed to successfully integrate with Sawori society. I can sense you are surprised. She does look very much like your average Sawori, doesn't she?" In spite of herself, Jinka began breathing hard. She reminded herself that Atuje was a fair and merciful ruler, that he hated killing, and that whatever he was planning to do to her wouldn't be cruel or unnecessary, probably wouldn't even hurt in fact. None of that calmed her in the slightest. "That is an illusion, however, crafted by my ingenious hand," Atuje continued. "Watch." Atuje wrapped his thick fingers around her right arm, causing Jinka to whimper. "What are you going to do to her?" Angonce said. "She whimpered." "It is nothing, I assure you," said Atuje. "She is going to be fine. The way I built her makes what I am going to do possible without leaving any permanent damage." Without warning, Atuje ripped off Jinka's right arm. Behind her, the Great Beings let out various noises of disgust and surprise, but Jinka didn't join them. She just looked at the socket where her right arm had been. A hollow socket was all that was left, but Jinka didn't cry out, even though she wanted to. She just waited patiently as Atuje lifted her disconnected arm up for the Great Beings to see. "Behold," said Atuje in the voice of a creator explaining the intricacies of his craft. "Her entire body is like that. About the only part that cannot be taken off in that way is her head; otherwise, she would die." "So she's not really alive at all," said Angonce. "Just a puppet." Those words stabbed at Jinka's heart like a knife as Atuje said, "Hardly a puppet. While she may not be perfectly organic, she is nonetheless one of my subjects and I will not tolerate such an insult to her being." Atuje reconnected her right arm. Jinka swiveled it several times back and forth, trying to make sure he had put it back on correctly. She realized she was holding her breath, which she let out rather more loudly than she intended. "Do you still want to know how to create life?" Atuje asked. "After what I just showed you?" Jinka glanced over her shoulder at the Great Beings. Though they still faced Atuje, she sensed they had all come to some sort of agreement without saying a word. "Of course," said Angonce, without a hint of hesitation in his voice. "We want more than anything else to improve our craft. Besides, we can already see ways to improve your work, if Jinka is representative of your ability." Atuje stroked his chin. "If I accept you as apprentices, what will I get in exchange? What do you have to offer me that I cannot get on my own?" "Another secret of our own," said Angonce. "One we know you don't know. It is called soul-splitting." Atuje's interest was apparently piqued at the mention of that technique, as he leaned forward in his throne, although Jinka didn't know what the term meant. "You mean you know how to split souls?" Atuje asked. Angonce nodded. "All of us do. And we've agreed to exchange that secret for yours. We believe the exchange is fair. Do you agree?" "It is more than fair," said Atuje. "It is generous. You are going to tell me how to cheat death, how to survive long after my physical body has given out in exhaustion. Do you realize what that means?" "Of course we do," said Angonce. "But cheating death is useless if we do not know how to bring about life, wouldn't you agree? We can complete one another's mental libraries with an exchange of knowledge." "Oh, yes," said Atuje. "Yes, yes, of course. I will teach you what I know and you will teach me what you know. Deal?" "Deal," said Angonce. "Now where shall we begin?" "I will take you to my laboratory," said Atuje. "I can only perform my experiments down there. Jinka, I want you to inform the rest of the castle that we have guests whose will require accommodations similar to my own." "Yes, sir," said Jinka, bowing. "I will make sure everyone in the castle knows." With that, Jinka dashed away from Atuje's throne, perhaps a bit quicker than she should have. She passed the six Great Beings, who barely acknowledged her, and reached the large double doors. When she stopped to look back, she saw that Atuje and the Great Beings were already deep in talk about matters she couldn't possibly comprehend. What am I doing? Jinka thought. I've got a job to do, one that doesn't involve gawking at our guests. Still, as Jinka exited the throne room and dashed down the stairs, she couldn't help but sense of feeling of ominousness hang over her head like a dark cloud. She ignored it, however, as she came upon the first of her fellow servants and began explaining to him what Atuje had told her. Whatever happened would be under the King's power. She had no right to worry about it. Review Topic
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TNTOS posted a blog entry in blogs_blog_1200
I am pleased to announce that today I have posted the first chapter of my newest (and last) epic, In the End. Read it HERE. Epic will be 20 chapters long once it's finished. Schedule will be one chapter a week every Monday, unless otherwise noted. -TNTOS-
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by Amanda Nelson
A ribbon cutting was held Friday, November 30, to officially mark the launch of Kentucky's involvement in the STEMx Network created by the Battelle Memorial Institute, the world's largest nonprofit research and development organization. The University of Kentucky College of Education's Kentucky P20 Innovation Lab is facilitating the launch and year of planning with stakeholders around the Commonwealth.
Kentucky is among 16 states partnering with Battelle to create this national network dedicated to transforming science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education in the United States and providing K-12 students with the necessary learning to productively join the future STEM workforce. The national STEMx network is a grassroots movement that provides an accessible platform to share, analyze and disseminate quality STEM tools to transform education, expand the number of STEM teachers, increase student achievement in STEM and grow tomorrow's innovators.
"STEMx works by connecting preexisting Kentucky STEM education advocacy programs with one another. As a result, Kentucky STEMx is uniquely positioned to impact education at the ground-level," UK College of Education Dean Mary John O'Hair said.
Kentucky STEMx is working to connect stakeholders from across K-12 and higher education, business, government, philanthropy and the community to impact STEM education and workforce development in Kentucky. Kentucky, like most states, has multiple STEM-related centers, institutes and programs, operating often in isolation. Kentucky STEMx is designed to recognize the good work of these individual centers and organizations as well as connect them with each other to create a shared vision to ensure Kentucky students are prepared as critical thinkers, problem solvers, innovators, and collaborators to compete and succeed in the STEM-driven global economy.
"STEM education is foundational to the development of innovative technologies, products and processes, and ultimately, economic development for the Commonwealth," said Paul Rooke, Lexmark International, Inc. chairman and chief executive officer. "I applaud UK, Battelle and all other organizations involved that are supporting this initiative."
The new Kentucky STEMx network provides a comprehensive system of support for school districts participating in the UK College of Education's Kentucky P20 Innovation Lab, providing them with the ability to share, analyze and disseminate quality STEM education ideas, tools and practices across the state and within a national network with the potential to reach millions of students.
"This initiative will enhance school districts' ability to develop innovative ways to deliver instruction and ensure that Kentucky students are prepared for college and careers," Kentucky Education Commissioner Terry Holliday said. "Through Kentucky STEMx, school officials will have improved access to the resources and networking capabilities that are vital to rethinking public education."
Collectively, the Kentucky STEMx Network will advance STEM by:
- Generating and sharing new knowledge of what works in STEM education;
- Promoting clearly articulated indicators of quality;
- Developing quality tools jointly;
- Offering interactive, ongoing access to tools, exemplars and education stakeholders through an advanced technology platform; and
- Connecting innovative policies and practices across the county.
More about STEMx:
Through its member states, STEMx reaches more than 6 million students nationwide, positioning the network as a powerful community through which effective STEM practices policy can spread.
STEMx is managed by Battelle, the world's largest independent research and development organization. Battelle provides innovative solutions to the world's most pressing needs through its four global businesses: Laboratory Management; National Security; Health and Life Sciences; and Energy, Environment and Material Sciences. It advances scientific discovery and application by conducting $6.5 billion in global R&D annually through contract research, laboratory management and technology commercialization. Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Battelle oversees 22,000 employees in more than 130 locations worldwide, including eight national laboratories for which Battelle has a significant management role on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the United Kingdom.
Battelle also is one of the nation's leading charitable trusts focusing on societal and economic impact and actively supporting and promoting science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education.


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Macmillan has joined the other major US publishers in settling the ebook price fixing lawsuit, filed by the Department of Justice, leaving Apple to fight the case alone.
The lawsuit alleges that Apple conspired with Hachette, HarperCollins, Macmillian, Simon & Schuster and Penguin to prevent retailers like Amazon from lowering the prices of ebooks.
Three of the publishers immediately settled with the DoJ, when the suit was filed in April 2012, but Penguin, Macmillan and Apple had vowed to fight the allegations in court.
Penguin caved in and settled in December and now Macmillan has also yielded, claiming the cost of losing the case could have put it out of business.
Prices to come down immediately
Macmillan, owned by German company Holtzbrinck, said the decision was made "because the potential penalties became too high to risk even the possibility of an unfavorable outcome."
The settlement will "immediately allow retailers to lower the prices consumers pay for Macmillan's e-books," DoJ lawyer Jamillia Ferris said.
With Macmillan out of the picture, Apple must now decide whether to stick to its guns and fight the case alone, or agree a settlement with the DoJ, which plans to continue its litigation against the company.
Via Bloomberg


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Last year I blogged about four reasons linking is good journalism. Make it five.
Journalists who practice thorough linking to provide context and attribution for their stories (two of the four reasons I cited) would have learned pretty quickly that crucial facts about Manti Te'o's purported girlfriend couldn't be verified.
Or journalists following Craig Silverman's advice on using an accuracy checklist (or using my checklist, adapted from Craig's) would have found lots of red flags and no verification. (I'll concentrate on linking here, but I see points on both of our checklists that might have helped a journalist see that something was wrong.)
If you care about accuracy in journalism and if you want to see an excellent example of journalism (exposing several shameful examples of journalism), read the Deadspin investigation of the Notre Dame football star's fictitious girlfriend.
It's a long piece and I'm not going to go through it in detail here, but I encourage you to read all the way through. Deadspin reporters Timothy Burke and Jack Dickey recount in excruciating detail how respected media outlets such as Sports Illustrated and ESPN recounted the tale of Te'O's girlfriend, Lennay Kekua, who supposedly was injured seriously in a car crash, then later died of leukemia.
Burke and Dickey documented that the woman never went to Stanford, as the media reported, never was in a crash in California. In fact, they debunked multiple statements about her and found no evidence that she existed.
Ross Maghielse, a sports writer, faulted me for criticizing journalists who fell for this. He argued on Twitter that the elaborate hoax might have been hard for a reporter to smoke out in writing a story about Te'o's grief (I added our full exchange below, among other tweets). I have to agree that Monday morning quarterbacking is often unfair and that we should generally be careful about piling on journalists caught in embarrassing situations (no one knows for sure what we would have done in the same situation). But I believe that we should learn from such mistakes. And the lessons are easy to spot here and they are lessons I've been advocating for a while here:
- Link to sources that provide verification and context to your stories.
- Use a checklist to verify facts and ensure the accuracy of your content.
Either or both of these measures could have saved a lot of journalists from a lot of embarrassment (check out links to "people who never looked up Lennay Kekua" compiled by SBNation's Spencer Hall).
I'm not sure what the full story is here. Notre Dame says Te'o was the victim of a hoax. I'm skeptical of that explanation. Burke and Dickey reported indications that Te'o might have been aware of the hoax. Burke and Dickey didn't answer the questions about what happened as well as they documented that Kekua was a hoax and that media fell for the hoax without bothering to verify. I presume they and other media will nail this story down over the next few days.
I won't claim I would have sniffed out the story as thoroughly as Burke and Dickey did. Their investigation even tracked down the woman whose actual photo was used to give Kekua a bogus face in social media. Simply trying to add a link to tell people who Kekua was (as I did above for Te'o, Burke and Dickey) might not have raised a red flag, because Kekua had a fake Twitter account (since deleted).
But that was about the extent of her digital profile, and anyone writing the stories that were written about her should have found and linked to her obituary. Not finding the obituary should have raised suspicions. And then, when you started digging for more information, the lack of a digital trail should have raised alarms.
Maybe if the girlfriend's name was supposed to be Jane Smith, it might have been hard to notice that she had no digital footprint. Or maybe if the bogus story were about Te'o's grandmother (her death, part of the same story, was real), you might think that it's not outlandish for an older woman to not have much online about her.
But Lennay Kekua is a distinctive name and it's hard to imagine a Stanford student lacking much digital presence, as Burke and Dickey describe (it's kinda hard to tell now, what with the 15,000-plus hits you can find for all the bogus accounts of her death and the buzz created by the Deadspin piece). But if you're the first reporter covering the story of her supposed death, Google her name and obituary, and you're going right to her obit. If she really died. Who dies without an obituary?
What reporter doing a story where her death is worth several paragraphs (as in this ESPN account) wouldn't want to read the obit? I'm not suggesting that you're suspicious at first; I'm sure I wouldn't have been. But you don't fact-check just when you're suspicious. You fact-check because that's what journalists always do. You don't have to suspect that Te'o was lying or duped to want to check to be sure the date is right or to want a few more details for the story.
I would have searched for the obit to provide a relevant link to mention with her death. Or to find a few details. Or just to routinely check that I had the facts about her death correct. I wouldn't start out suspicious, but if I couldn't find an obit, I'd keep looking. I don't know when I'd get suspicious, but at that point, I'd sure as hell be looking for verification. I'd Google her name and "crash." Or her name and Stanford. And as the questions mounted, I'd keep digging.
(I should add that my belief that a journalist should link to an obit in a story like this is not hypothetical. I linked to an obituary — the New York Times obit of baseball player Allie Reynolds — in a blog post I wrote last weekend. I did find a few details for the post in the obit and linked there for attribution and context.)
Here's the problem: The ESPN story linked above, by Matt Fortuna (whom I'll tweet inviting comment and add it if he responds), has only one link that I can find, opening a box on Te'o's football stats. Nowhere did the story link externally to sources that would provide context and attribution. If such links were routinely expected and required in the digital versions of stories, the journalist would have to verify and the red flags would be hard to miss. I didn't click all the links in the SBNation compilation, but clicked pieces by Sports Illustrated and the South Bend Tribune (the story has been removed since last night when I read it), and neither of them provided links either.
I can anticipate the argument that journalists are overworked and don't have time to find all these links (it's alluded to in the Twitter conversation below). Well, lots of journalists are doing good research and finding the links they need to as part of that, so adding the links is a fairly quick step. And where adding links requires searching and reading some more, that's reporting you should be doing anyway, and we need to find or make time to report stories fully. Journalists are not too overworked to look up the obituaries of supposedly dead people they write about. That's part of the work, not an added chore. The fairly simple task of adding the link is added but important work.
Two of journalism's favorite clichés apply here:
- If your mother says she loves you, check it out.
- If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
Those are valid points that many people in journalism will focus on in discussing this case. But I want to keep my focus on linking. In the discussion of linking when I blogged last year, some journalists dismissed linking as a matter of courtesy in the blogging culture, not a matter of journalism ethics.
Well, linking is a matter of ethics. The digital version of a story should link to related content. You add links for context (which is a matter of good journalism, but not necessarily ethics). But you link for attribution as well, which is a matter of ethics. (If we link routinely, the lack of links can alert editors to possible cases of plagiarism.) If you routinely add relevant links as you're writing, it makes your reporting more thorough and more accurate. I can't count how many times I have found important details as I've started adding links. Some of those details have made my reporting more thorough, which is good journalism. Some of those details have helped me spot and correct errors.
And the lack of digital content to link to should always raise red flags.
On a related note: Neither of the pieces I linked above from ESPN or SI had been corrected this morning, though both organizations have home-page stories on the hoax.
Another related note: Outdated content management systems sometimes make linking difficult. This is one more reason to make replacement of those systems an urgent priority (which it should be for many more reasons). And even when linking is difficult, journalists should make it a priority.
Update: I blogged about some tangential obituary matters (prompted by the discussion in the comments about whether a death without an obit was as rare as I thought). I also decided I should check my own linking. Not counting the blog post immediately before this (which was a Storify loaded with embedded tweets), here are the numbers of links in my last five new blog posts (not counting lists of links at the end and bypassing my year-in-review, which was mostly an extraordinary number of internal links): Chuck Hagel, 10; narcissism, 19; beats, 28; plagiarism, 10; what should we stop doing? 18.
Update: Sports Illustrated reporter Pete Thamel acknowledges missing red flags when he tried to check on the girlfriend's Stanford connection and when a Sports Illustrated fact-checker looked for records of the accident. He also checked for obituaries.
Other pieces on the journalism aspects of the story (I'll add links as I learn of them; I'll be watching especially for Craig Silverman's take):
CBS Sports interview with Tim Burke
Mallary Tenore's Q&S with Tim Burke
Mallary Tenore with Deadspin Editor Tommy Craggs
Erik Wemple's analysis of the Sports Illustrated interview transcript
Erik Wemple's There but for for the grace of God … (I thought Erik went light on Sports Illustrated reporter Pete Thamel. I've seen Erik work, and he'd have been pushing the reporter to check out the girlfriend and get a story on her.)
Here's a discussion on Twitter last night (with multiple threads. Might be difficult to follow at times, especially with some of my tweets appearing multiple times, embedded with replies:
If your mother tell you she loves you, check it out. If a football player says he loves a girl, damn sure check it out: deadspin.com/5976517/manti-…
— Steve Buttry (@stevebuttry) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry Exactly! They don't even know who died first. How did no one Google and find other articles. They all had different timelines.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry Of all the things in the journalism world that have happen since I have been in j-school, this scares me the most.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @lindzcook I think that's easy to say now. Would you honestly have called B.S. on this when her "death" first became public?
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @stevebuttry I think Googling a city to make sure it is spelled correctly is expected. This city didn't even exist.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @stevebuttry Checks that are required at my college's newspaper could have started unraveling this.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @stevebuttry City I saw reported was Carson, Calif., also for her "funeral", which is a real place.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @stevebuttry I think it's easy, but wrong, for journos to sit back and point fingers now about how other reporters screwed up
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @stevebuttry Instead of crediting Deadspin, blame reporting tactics of others? Why?
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
It's not either/or. RT @maghielse: @lindzcook @stevebuttry Instead of crediting Deadspin, blame reporting tactics of others? Why?
— Steve Buttry (@stevebuttry) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @stevebuttry This is so widespread, one reporter can't be singled out. It's a profession issue and we should learn from it.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @lindzcook @stevebuttry Depends on the reporter. ND beat writer? Wrong. Casual fan who doesn't cover football? Not wrong.
— Danny Willis (@DannyJWillis) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @lindzcook IMO advocating fact-checking is different than using a situation not related to anything "you" did to lecture others
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @maghielse Exactly. No one searched for an obit or asked ANYONE at Stanford about her…. what?
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @lindzcook There are a lot of holes in this whole thing, but it appears they came out over time. Not a simple fact check.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @maghielse @stevebuttry Well, the city was Carson, they wrote Carson City, that isn't the correction of the century. Otherwise…
— Alex Parker (@AlexParkerDC) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @lindzcook To get the report Deadspin had and have it be factual enough to publish took a ton of time, time most don't have.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
Maybe people too busy Tweeting & Facebooking, not reporting?@stevebuttry @maghielse @lindzcook How do you report funeral w/o simple search
— Mark Purdy (@MercPurdy) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @maghielse @stevebuttry …I'm surprised that reporters didn't call hospitals, mortuaries, etc., just to get the cause of death.
— Alex Parker (@AlexParkerDC) January 16, 2013
@lindzcook @maghielse @stevebuttry I mean, the fictional city it was supposed to be was Carson….
— Alex Parker (@AlexParkerDC) January 16, 2013
@alexparkerdc @lindzcook @stevebuttry The cause of death was "leukemia."
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @lindzcook @stevebuttry After a car crash…that's already weird. I'd have called just a make sure the family got it right.
— Alex Parker (@AlexParkerDC) January 16, 2013
@mercpurdy @stevebuttry @lindzcook Don't think there were any detailed reports about funeral. Stories focused on him/football aspect
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@alexparkerdc @lindzcook @stevebuttry Called who? I'm just saying I can where people took his word for it on something like this.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@alexparkerdc @lindzcook @stevebuttry Stories were about him, not her. She was a footnote and treated like one, which is why this blew up.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @maghielse @lindzcook it takes me approximately 1 minute on the internet to figure out if someone is being shady
— Fred McTweeter (@tweetinomglol) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @lindzcook Point is I doubt everybody pointing fingers @ reporters who missed this would have caught it as easily as they say
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @mercpurdy @maghielse Also, @deadspin used social media heavily in its reporting of the story. Twitter is not to blame.
— Lindsey Rogers Cook (@Lindzcook) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @mercpurdy @lindzcook Yeah, this isn't Twitter's fault. It's a bizarre situation that just got missed. A stone left unturned.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @mercpurdy @lindzcook Again, focus of almost all stories were on Te'o, telling his story, not his girlfriend's. Focused on him
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
Newspapers generally don't employ fact checkers. Mags usually do. How did SI not flush this out? No fact checkers? @stevebuttry
— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) January 16, 2013
.@ergoproxy05 @jeffedelstein Newspapers do employ factcheckers. We call them reporters.
— Steve Buttry (@stevebuttry) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry And copy editors.
— Andy Bechtel (@andybechtel) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry @andybechtel speaking as a copy ed, I've red-flagged stories before that didn't pass the smell test
— Angela Tant (@amtant1972) January 17, 2013
@stevebuttry @ergoproxy05 yes, reporters. But fact checkers at mags-and I was one-are paid to check facts, period. How did it slip thru SI?
— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) January 17, 2013
@stevebuttry @alexparkerdc @lindzcook The notion that this was blatantly obvious, which is how it's being treated now, is simply not true.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@maghielse @stevebuttry @alexparkerdc @lindzcook A lot of people missed this, I think understandably. Credit Deadspin, not bash others
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 16, 2013
@stevebuttry True. It seems like it could have been questioned, caught there, though. Example: Carson City, California?
— Andy Bechtel (@andybechtel) January 17, 2013
@stevebuttry @maghielse @lindzcook True,but I've also heard:"Post it first, we'll fix it later if some details are wrong." Pressure's there.
— Mark Purdy (@MercPurdy) January 17, 2013
@stevebuttry @maghielse @lindzcook That said, not sure it appllies here since SI & espn stories were features with time to fact-check.
— Mark Purdy (@MercPurdy) January 17, 2013
Very big stone. But glad it creates good dialogue. Like this. @maghielse @stevebuttry @lindzcook Not Twitter's fault a stone left unturned.
— Mark Purdy (@MercPurdy) January 17, 2013
@stevebuttry I think the tone being taken to this, not yours but overall, is coming off as "duh." Then why didn't "you" break this story.
— Ross Maghielse (@Maghielse) January 17, 2013
@maghielse @stevebuttry @lindzcook yes, criticism is fair. I insisted my community college students verify tragedies. C'mon, get the obit!
— David Simpson (@adviserdavid) January 17, 2013


text:
International HIV/AIDS Trial Finds that Risks of Death, AIDS and Other Major Diseases Increase on Episodic Antiretroviral Therapy
Results from one of the largest HIV/AIDS treatment trials ever conducted show that a specific strategy of interrupting antiretroviral therapy more than doubles the risk of AIDS or death from any cause. In the study, the investigators used two predetermined levels of CD4+ T cells, the primary immune cell targeted by HIV, to guide them in respectively suspending or restarting the study participants on antiretroviral therapy.
A report describing this research which involved 318 clinical sites in 33 countries appears in this weeks issue of The New England Journal of Medicine. The trial, known as Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapies, or SMART, was funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.
The SMART trial has provided important new data that will help physicians and their HIV-infected patients make treatment decisions, says NIAID Director Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. The study reflects an extraordinary global collaboration among hundreds of dedicated AIDS clinicians and thousands of their patients, all of whom should be commended for their contributions to this pivotal HIV/AIDS treatment study.
As HIV/AIDS has evolved into a chronic disease without a cure, lifelong antiretroviral therapy has become the norm. Lifelong therapy, however, can be difficult to adhere to as well as expensive. For these reasons, there has been a concerted research effort to test treatment interruption strategies that may enhance patients quality of life and limit adverse drug effects. The experimental strategies vary in their approach to when to interrupt therapy. Some, like SMART, use a specific CD4+ count as a guide; others schedule regular time periods during which treatment is stopped (for example, alternating one month off and three months on).
SMART was designed to determine which of two different HIV treatment strategies would result in greater overall clinical benefit. Volunteers with chronic HIV infection nearly all of whom had taken antiretroviral therapy (ART) were assigned at random to one of two groups. In the viral suppression group, ART was taken on an ongoing basis to suppress HIV viral load; in the drug conservation group, participants received episodic ART in an effort to reduce drug side effects and preserve treatment options. In the latter group, ART was suspended whenever CD4+ counts were above 350 cells per cubic millimeter (mm3) and ART was started only when levels of CD4+ cells dropped below 250 cells/mm3. (For more details see http://www.smart-trial.org.) The CD4+ count thresholds for stopping and starting ART were chosen based on previously reported associations between CD4+ counts and risks of opportunistic diseases and death.
Beginning in January 2002, the trial recruited 5,472 volunteers: 2,720 were assigned at random to the drug conservation group and 2,752 to the viral suppression group. The participants were followed for an average of 16 months.
In early 2006, NIAID announced that enrollment into the trial had been halted after review of the interim data by an independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) found that those participants receiving episodic therapy had a significantly increased risk of disease progression. Disease progression was defined as the development of an opportunistic disease (AIDS) or death from any cause. The Executive Committee of SMART recommended that ART be re-initiated in ART-experienced participants in the drug conservation group. Follow-up is currently scheduled to continue through July 2007.
At the time the trial was stopped, 120 participants in the drug conservation group compared with 47 on continuous antiretroviral therapy had developed disease progression. The difference represents a 2.6-fold increased risk for those receiving episodic treatment. Notably, the drug conservation group had significantly more major adverse events, specifically, cardiovascular, kidney and liver disease, complications previously associated with ART. The study investigators had hoped that these complications would be seen less frequently in those trial volunteers receiving less drug.
Quite unexpectedly, our results show that interrupting therapy increases the risk of serious non-AIDS-related events, says Wafaa El-Sadr, M.D., M.P.H., M.P.A., of the Harlem Hospital Center and Columbia University in New York City, one of the co-chairs of the trial. This is a major lesson learned for designing any HIV/AIDS treatment trial: It is important to evaluate all causes of death, not just death from AIDS, and to also evaluate other major non-fatal clinical diseases, not just those considered AIDS-related opportunistic diseases.
The University of Minnesotas James Neaton, Ph.D., the other co-chair and chief biostatistician for the trial, notes, The SMART study demonstrates the tremendous advantages inherent in conducting large enough trials to precisely assess risks and benefits of any treatment strategy in a diverse population. First, the study ended much earlier than we expected. Second, we could analyze the data according to many variables age, race, sex, HIV risk behavior, and baseline CD4+ count, among other factors. Importantly, among every subgroup we looked at, the conclusion remained consistent: CD4+ count-guided episodic antiretroviral therapy as implemented in the SMART study carries increased health risks compared with continuous therapy.
The SMART study was coordinated by four international centers: the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit in London; the Copenhagen HIV Program in Denmark; the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia; and the Terry Beirn Community Programs for Clinical Research on AIDS (CPCRA) in Washington, DC. The statistical and data management center was based at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.
Fred Gordin, M.D., of the VA Medical Center in Washington, DC, the CPCRA director, says, The study participants understood that our goal was to test a strategy that we hoped might simplify their treatment and prevent some adverse side effects. SMART has better focused the discussion of what questions we can and should be addressing in this important area of HIV/AIDS treatment research. A workshop held by the NIH Office of AIDS Research in July in London assessed the current state of research on intermittent therapy strategies ( www.oar.nih.gov/public/NIH_OAR_STI_IT_Report_Final.pdf )
Initial analyses indicate that most but not all of the excess risk in the drug conservation group can be explained by CD4+ count and viral load differences. Jens Lundgren, M.D., Director of the Copenhagen HIV Programme and the Copenhagen international coordinating center, says, The continued follow-up of patients and planned research on patient specimens will help us better understand the differences between the treatment groups that we observed.
David Cooper, M.D., D.Sc., of the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research at the University of New South Wales, the Sydney international coordinating center director, notes, The prospect of lifelong treatment is difficult for people with HIV. We are gratified that the SMART study has so clearly delineated the risk and benefits of these two strategies, and we are committed to continuing to try to find ways to improve treatment strategies for those with chronic HIV disease.
Janet Darbyshire, M.Sc., FRCP and Director of the MRC Clinical Trials Unit and the London international coordinating center comments, This question could not have been answered so quickly without the collaboration and active participation of the 318 clinical sites and thousands of patients worldwide which contributed to SMART. Such collaborations are essential if we are to answer some of the key strategic questions about how to best manage HIV disease.
Further information concerning the SMART study findings can be found in a Questions and Answers document (http://www3.niaid.nih.gov/news/QA/NEJMsmart_QA.htm). Earlier NIAID news releases describing the initiation of the SMART trial and the stopping of enrollment into the trial can be viewed at http://www3.niaid.nih.gov/news/newsreleases/2002/smart.htm and http://www3.niaid.nih.gov/news/newsreleases/2006/smart06.htm, respectively.
NIAID is a component of the National Institutes of Health, an agency of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIAID supports basic and applied research to prevent, diagnose and treat infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections, influenza, tuberculosis, malaria and illness from potential agents of bioterrorism. NIAID also supports research on transplantation and immune-related illnesses, including autoimmune disorders, asthma and allergies. News releases, fact sheets and other NIAID-related materials are available on the NIAID Web site at http://www.niaid.nih.gov.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) The Nations Medical Research Agency includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. It is the primary federal agency for conducting and supporting basic, clinical and translational medical research, and it investigates the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit www.nih.gov.
Reference: The Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) Study Group. CD4+ count-guided interruption of antiretroviral treatment. The New England Journal of Medicine 355(22): 2283-96 (2006).
- Contact Information
- Laurie K. Doepel
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)
- Contact via E-mail
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text:
UNITED NATIONS — Despite months of laboratory testing and scrutiny by top U.S. scientists, the Obama administration's case for arming Syria's rebels rests on unverifiable claims that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against its own people, according to diplomats and experts.
The United States, Britain and France have supplied the United Nations with a trove of evidence, including multiple blood, tissue and soil samples, that U.S. officials say proves that Syrian troops used the nerve agent sarin on the battlefield. But the nature of the physical evidence — as well as the secrecy over how it was collected and analyzed — has opened the administration to criticism by independent experts, who say there is no reliable way to assess its authenticity.
The technical data presented by the three Western powers is of limited value to U.N. inspectors trying to determine whether
Syria's combatants used chemical weapons during the country's 25-month-old conflict. Under the United Nations' terms of reference, only evidence personally collected by its inspectors can be used to fashion a final judgment.
But no inspectors have been allowed inside Syria, so Western governments have relied on physical evidence smuggled out of the country by rebels or intelligence operatives. Precisely who acquired the evidence and what methods were used to guard against tampering may be unknowable, according to experts experienced at investigating chemical weapons claims.
"You can try your best to control the analysis, but analysis at a distance is always uncertain," said David Kay, a former U.N. weapons inspector who led the U.S. search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. "You'd be an idiot if you didn't approach this thing with a bit of caution."
The Obama administration announced last week that it was expanding military support to the rebels after concluding with "high confidence" that Syria's government had used chemical weapons on a small scale, according to a White House statement. President Obama had warned Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in August that any use of his chemical arsenal would cross a "red line" and draw a strong U.S. response.
The first report of sarin attacks trickled out of Syria in January, and the administration initially played it down. By March, Britain and France reported that they had received evidence of such attacks and, in a joint letter, asked the United Nations to investigate rebel claims of chemical weapons use by Syrian authorities. Britain also provided soil samples it had tested. The Obama administration continued to collect and analyze data for three more months before reaching the same conclusion.
The number of deaths from poison gas was estimated at 100 to 150 — a relatively small number in a conflict that has killed more than 90,000 people. But the "red line" declaration had committed the administration — which had been resisting pressure to militarily intervene — to act. At the same time, the president's language handed the Syrian opposition a powerful incentive to fabricate evidence, some weapons experts noted.
"If you are the opposition and you hear" that the White House has drawn a red line on the use of nerve agents, then "you have an interest in giving the impression that some chemical weapons have been used," said Rolf Ekeus, a Swedish scientist who headed up U.N. weapons inspections in Iraq during the 1990s.
U.S. officials staunchly defend what they describe as an extensive, rigorous and multilayered analysis that led to the White House's June 13 pronouncement on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The conclusion that Assad's forces used sarin was based on scientific assessments of dozens of evidentiary samples representing multiple attacks spanning several months, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the evidence.
The evidence came from a variety of sources, and some was collected by non-Syrians, said the sources, who like others interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing strict secrecy surrounding the operation. Details about how the evidence was gathered and tested could not be disclosed without compromising ongoing intelligence operations, the officials said.
Having been famously burned by the 2003 intelligence failure over Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, U.S. analysts now approach all such claims with exceptional care, said a third administration official familiar with intelligence analysis. "You have to use sophisticated analytic techniques that account for, and carefully weigh, competing evidence and subject your findings to intense self-imposed scrutiny," the official said.
But Western officials and diplomats also acknowledged that the lack of transparency undermined the credibility of the chemical-weapons claims.
"The chain-of-custody issue is a real issue," said a senior Western diplomat whose government has closely tracked the Syrian investigation. But the official said the totality of the evidence "from different sources, different times, different locations" should convince the U.N. investigating body that the claims were real.
The key fact-finder for determining whether and how chemical weapons were used is Ake Sellstrom, a Swedish scientist and the chief U.N. weapons inspector. He must try to link the physical evidence to a verifiable use of chemical weapons inside Syria, like a criminal prosecutor assembling a case that can stand up in court.
Sellstrom is scheduled to travel next week to Turkey, the first leg in a reporting trip that will include stops in Lebanon and Jordan. There, he is expected to interview Syrian witnesses and medical professionals who claim to have treated victims of chemical-
weapons attacks.
The senior Western diplomat said Sellstrom and his team should be able to put together a "pretty coherent picture of what happened," though the diplomat voiced frustration that it has taken Sellstrom months to send a team to the region to interview refugees.
"If we have criticism with Sellstrom, it's that he has been very passive," the official said.
U.N. officials continue to push for an on-the-ground inspection in Syria, even as they acknowledge the diminishing chances that the Assad government will let them in.
"The validity of any information cannot be ensured without convincing evidence of the chain of custody," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon cautioned after the White House disclosed plans to arm Syria's rebels. "That is why I continue to emphasize the need for an investigation on the ground in Syria that can collect its own samples and establish the facts."
But even if inspectors are allowed in, the passage of time since the alleged attacks would make their task even more difficult, as sarin degrades quickly after exposure to air and sunlight, weapons experts say.
Jean Pascal Zanders, who until recently was a research fellow at the European Union Institute for Security Studies, said he has scoured the Internet for photographs, video and news reports documenting alleged nerve agent attacks in Syria. What he has seen has made him a skeptic.
Few of the photographs, Zanders said, have borne the trademark symptoms of a chemical weapons attack. In a paper he presented last week to the E.U. Non-Proliferation Consortium, he compared photographs documenting Iraq's 1998 chemical weapons attack against Kurds in the town of Halabja.
The Halabja victims appeared to have died instantaneously from chemical agents, he said, and their bodies showed telltale signs of exposure to sarin: blue lips and fingertips caused by suffocation and a pink hue brought on by excessive sweating and high blood pressure. "No press reports from Syria refer to those descriptions, which is one of the reasons why I am skeptical about those reports," he said.
Zanders said the problem with the U.S., British and French evidence is that it cannot be tested by independent scientists. Some of the published reports of chemical weapons use "make certain alarm bells ring," he said, but it is impossible to reach a definitive conclusion on the basis of what governments have put forward. "We don't have the barest of information. There is not even a fact sheet documenting the samples," he said. "This is an immensely political process, and there is no way of challenging the findings."
Other weapons experts were prepared to accept that sarin was used but said the allegation that the Syrian government has deliberately used toxins against its own people appeared to based on circumstantial evidence.
"There are so many people who would like us to believe that the regime used chemical weapons," said a former senior U.S. official who had been involved in intelligence assessments of claims about weapons of mass destruction. "You have to question whether any of those advocates were involved in collecting the evidence."
Warrick reported from Washington.