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Anemia and Kidney Disease
Anemia is a health problem that affects your blood. Normally, the kidneys make a protein (erythropoietin) that tells your body when to make new red blood cells. But if you have kidney disease, your kidneys may not be able to make enough of this protein. Another cause for anemia in kidney disease is iron deficiency. Iron is important in the process of manufacturing red blood cells. It is necessary to replace iron before using medicines (such as epoetin alfa injections). Use this handout to help you understand anemia and the medicines that can help control it.
What is anemia?
Anemia occurs when your blood does not have enough red cells in it. Then your blood can't carry as much oxygen to your body. As a result, all your organs are running on too little fuel. Red blood cells make up 35% to 45% of normal blood. If you have anemia, your red cell count (hematocrit) is below 35.
Signs of anemia
Talk with your healthcare provider if you have any of these signs:
Ongoing fatigue
Shortness of breath
Rapid, irregular heartbeat
Trouble concentrating
Feeling dizzy or lightheaded
Constant feeling of being cold
Pale skin
Medicines can help
If you're at risk for anemia, you may be given a medicine called epoetin alfa (sometimes called EPO). EPO is a manmade version of erythropoietin. EPO controls anemia by signaling your body to make red blood cells. Most people who take EPO feel better and become more active. Your healthcare provider can also check the blood levels of iron. Iron is the raw material that helps EPO increase the red blood cells. In some cases, you may need additional nutrients, like vitamins and minerals, to help improve your anemia.
How EPO and iron are used
EPO may be used to treat any person with kidney disease who has anemia, but is most often used to treat people on dialysis. EPO is given as an injection under the skin. This is how most CAPD (Continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis) patients receive it. Those on hemodialysis can receive it through their IV (intravenous) line if they are unable to handle the injections. This method is more expensive and may not be as effective as the injections. If you have low levels of iron, you may need to take iron-containing tablets or IV iron to increase the levels.


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2013-08-13 Code has moved to GitHub.
Please fork and send your pull-requests ;-)
2010-01-05 -- Ubuntu and Debian's packages have been updated against current trunk (contains a bunch of bugfixes). Ubuntu Karmic is now supported!
2009-02-26 -- Museek+ 0.2 is finally out! This is a major release with a complete rewrite of the daemon (museekd) and one of the main client (museeq). It is quite stable and users are strongly encouraged to update. Development will now continue on the future 0.3 version: don't hesitate to help us.
Welcome to the Museek+ Trac
What is Museek+?
Museek+ is a GPL licensed file-sharing application for the Soulseek peer-to-peer network. It is written in C++ and runs on GNU/Linux and FreeBSD (it may run on other platforms (MacOSX, ...) but this has not yet been tested).
It is based on Museek, a soulseek client written by Hyriand. For an history of Museek+, see the FAQ.
Museek+, an actively developed Soulseek client
Museek+ (or Museek-Plus) can now be considered as a replacement for Museek. It is actively developed and supports most of Soulseek features (downloads and uploads with rate limiting, searches, wishlist, rooms, interests, browsing, user lists, private chat).
New features, like private rooms, should be included in future versions.
Museek+ is separated into several components:
- museekd -- the daemon
- museeq -- the Qt4 client (GUI)
- murmur -- a PyGTK Museek Client (GUI)
- mucous -- a full-featured Curses Python client (GUI)
- muscan -- a tool for scanning shared files
- muscand -- an automatic file scanning tool
- musetup -- the commandline configuration script
- musetup-gtk -- the PyGTK configuration app
- musetup-qt -- the PyQt3 configuration app
- museekcontrol -- a command-line Python client
- and Python Bindings.
To install Museek+ see this page.
We are looking for your help ! If you have some skills in RPM packaging, FreeBSD ports or anything else, please contact us ! You can open a ticket and attach your files.
What's New in Museek+?
Read about the New Features : MuseekPlusNewFeatures
Feature History : ChangeLog
To Do : ToDo
What makes Museek different from other clients? : SoulseekClientComparison
Other programs in the Subversion Repository
- moodriver -- A driver library for Museek Clients implemented in C++
- Museek+ on Sourceforge.net Project Files
- daelstorm's website mirror
- Daelstorm's old Museek+ page
- Soulseek's official website
- Nicotine+ Trac
Read the Developers Guide for information about the Soulseek Protocol, Museek Client Protocol and Translation instructions for Museeq.

subset: commoncrawl


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Donate to the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension
Make a Donation
We are pleased to offer a variety of ways that you can make your gift to Cooperative Extension. If you have questions or would like to make your gift by telephone, please contact the CALS Development Office at 520-621-7190.
Online Giving
Thank you for your interest in supporting Cooperative Extension across the state of Arizona. Donors like you have contributed greatly to our continued success in education for improving lives and communities. All tax deductible charitable donations are processed through the University of Arizona Foundation. We appreciate your support of Cooperative Extension.
Please make your check payable to: "University of Arizona Foundation"
Gifts may be mailed to:
CALS Cooperative Extension
301 Forbes Building
PO Box 210036
Tucson, Arizona 85721-0036
Estate Gifts, Gifts of Stock, Gifts of Insurance or other Planned Gifts
If you would like to include Cooperative Extension, or a specific Extension program, in your estate plans, or if you would like information on the benefits and ease of giving gifts of stock or insurance or other types of planned gifts, please contact Nick Pierson at 520-621-7190 or Mike Celaya at 520-621-7883.
Charitable Gift Annuities
Charitable Gift Annuities are an important way to support Arizona Cooperative Extension, particularly county level Extension programs, while receiving life-long income and significant tax benefits. Please call Nick Pierson at 520-621-7190 or Mike Celaya at 520-621-7883 for more information.


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This morning I was reading Tomie diPaola's book Oliver Button Is A Sissy with my nearly 3-year old daughter Maeve. It's a sweet poignant 1979 kids book that takes on some gender roles. We've read it dozens of times. The opening page states that "Oliver… didn't like to things that boys are supposed to do."
I asked Maeve what thought little girls are supposed to do. She thought about it a bit, then responded that little girls are supposed to "sit up straight" especially "when watching Madagascar" (one of her preferred videos these days.)
So it would seem that she's not all that consciously aware of gender roles. She knows that she and mommy are girls, and that daddy and Silvio, next door, are boys. But, mercifully, she's not so clear on outdated ideas of what girls are supposed to do.
(I haven't posted many daddy blogs lately – apologies. I was trying to think about doing big updates like 2015 in review, but then I don't get around to it. So I think it's going to be easier to post short stuff like this, hopefully more frequently… we'll see.)


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Peter Jackson's Lord of the Ring trilogy is concluded in the final film translation of Tolkien's masterpiece. The surviving members of the Fellowship are scattered all across Middle-earth and Sauron is preparing an all-out assault on mankind. This was the first movie since Titanic to make over a billion dollars and it won eleven Oscars. Not too shabby.
Frodo Baggins (Elijah Wood) and the faithful Samwise Gamgee (Sean Astin) are slowly but surely making their way to Mount Doom to destroy the Ring. Their treacherous guide Gollum (Andy Serkis) is leading them into a trap.
Gandalf, Aragorn, Legolas, and Gimli (Ian McKellen, Viggo Mortensen, Orlando Bloom, and John Rhys-Davies) find Merry and Pippin (Dominic Monaghan and Billy Boyd) chilling in the flooded ruins of Isengard. After a brief and happy reunion, Pippin picks up Sauruman's palantír and Sauron invades his mind. Gandalf is able to deduce that Sauron will attack Minas Tirith and that Sauron thinks Pippin has the Ring.
Gandalf and Pippin head out to Gondor and try to warn Denethor, the Steward of Gondor and Boromir and Faramir's dad. Gandalf recommends that he asks Rohan for help, but he refuses because he is stupid and stubborn. Pippin lights a beacon and Aragorn, Theodan and his Rohirrim answer the call.
Elrond (Hugo Weaving) briefly visits Aragorn and presents him with his sword, Andúril, and Aragorn accepts his destiny as Isildur's heir. He also realizes that they don't have enough warriors to fight Sauron's forces. His only chance to find the King of the Dead and get all his ghost fighters to join his side.
There's a huge battle at Minas Tirith. There's tons of orcs and men and massive oliphants and CG fighting. It's not looking good for Gondor, but then the Rohirrim show up and the battle continues. And then when it's not looking good for Gondor and the Rohirrim, Aragorn shows up with the Army of the Dead and they win the battle.
Gollum is leading Sam and Frodo closer and closer to Shelob the giant hobbit-eating spider. Gollum manipulates Frodo into thinking that Sam wants the Ring for himself and that he can't be trusted. Frodo tells Sam to fuck off and go home. Frodo keeps following Gollum and enters Shelob's lair. The spider gets him and it looks like he's pretty boned, but Sam shows up and fights Shelob off, but it looks like Frodo is dead. Some orcs come along, find Frodo, and it turns out that he's just paralyzed and they take him to Sauron's fortress. Sam manages to free Frodo, and the two of them continue their trek to Mount Doom.
Aragorn and a ragtag army make their way to the Black Gate of Mordor with the intention of distracting Sauron while Frodo destroys the Ring. Just as Frodo is about to throw the Ring into the fire, he gets attacked by Gollum. They struggle and fight and Gollum and the Ring are briefly reunited as they fall into the lava pit. The Ring is destroyed but the movie is not over.
This movie has like 5 endings. You think it's over when Sam and Frodo get rescued by Eagles. But it's not. You think it's over when Aragorn gets crowned King. But it's not. You think it's over when everyone bows down to the four hobbits. But it's not. You think it's over when the hobbits finally get back home to the Shire. But it's not. You think it's over when Frodo finally leaves Middle-earth with the elves. But you aren't sure. And you are relieved when the credits finally roll.
This movie has a lot of differences from the book. All that business with Shelob takes place in the second book. Aragorn gets his sword in the first book. There's a bunch of stuff missing. But it's a movie and not a book and the movies left shit out but they did the books justice by capturing the feel of them. It's a satisfying conclusion to a great trilogy. It didn't deserve all those Oscars though.
Critically Rated at 13/17


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Therma-Tru's fire-rated, fiberglass doors allow you and your family time to escape in the event of a fire. Made for entry to your garage, basement, utility room, and more, these fiberglass doors are designed to give you 20 minutes of protection from fire and are more impact resistant than wood doors.
With a fiberglass, fire rated doors from Therma-Tru, you get a stylish look and great warranty without sacrificing safety. Our 20 minute fire-rated fiberglass doors are available in select door designs within our Classic-Craft®, Fiber-Classic® and Smooth-Star® collections making Therma-Tru's fire rated doors the industry's widest selection of styles and sizes to fit any architectural style.


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The toll of dead given by the Attorney General of the State, Marco Antonio Higuera Gomez in the conflicts in Choix was at 22 that included a soldier and a municipal police officer, but perhaps the real version might be different.
After nearly a week of intense fighting in the Sierra of Choix authorities now report that the area is currently controlled by the Army, the State Ministerial Police and Municipal Police.
Residents of nearby communities fear for their lives and are begging for intervention from the authorities to avoid a tragedy as they have learned that the sicarios have displaced whole families from their homes while passing through the high mountains of Choix.
General traffic has been drastically reduced in some localities in the state of Chihuahua and even some of the residents have blocked the entrance to the mountains to prevent people from going up or down to their communities because of the danger against the attack by the "fake soldiers" and the fear of stray bullet that could endanger family members.
Air traffic from civilian aircraft has been restricted as a safety measure, as it is feared that some of the armed group will attempt to escape at all costs.
Source: El Debate


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Blog Archives
The Barrister's Toolbox Hits 100,000 Views… Thanks to All Who Have Patronized This Site!
I write this blawg (blog) as a labor of love with gratitude for the privilege to pursue my dream job as a trial attorney. I have handled all sorts of cases involving misdemeanors to ones seeking the death penalty. I have been blessed to handle civil rights claims, class actions, along with personal injury claims from small monetary values to ones in the millions.
I have learned that there are no small cases. Every case is the most important case you are handling for that client. I have gained more from my failures, than my successes. Nothing focuses your mind like a loss… so thanks for the loses. They made me a better attorney. My goal every day is to be the best attorney I can and to hopefully be better than the day before.
I have tried my share of cases over the last three plus decades. I have attempted to share some of the lessons I have learned along the way. Hopefully, it will help you as you move forward with your career.
If you read this and have any thoughts or questions you would like to share please post below.
I hope you all have a blessed holiday season and thanks again for reading by blawg.


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Not very long ago, Opinionated Man migrated his popular blog, HarsH ReaLiTy, from WordPress.com to WordPress.org. I remember reading his stream-of-consciousness posts while he climbed WP.org's very steep learning curve, and I got headaches and felt twitchy just reading them. Although OM was often frustrated and sometimes seemed ready to give up, he didn't, and he now claims that becoming self-hosted was the best blogging decision he ever made. I don't doubt he's telling the truth, as being self-hosted allows you all sorts of options and freedoms you do not have as a WordPress.com blogger.
But you can count me out, at least for the foreseeable future. I'm a serious blogger, yes, but WordPress.com suits my needs just fine. Here are four reasons why I have no intention of ever becoming self hosted.
1. The community.
When you become a WordPress.com member, it's easy to find a community of like-minded WordPress bloggers via the Reader, which makes suggestions based on your interests, and posts all new articles by blogs you're already following. For new bloggers, this feature is a godsend. ALl you do is "follow" blogs that are suggested to you based on your interests and voila! Instant community! When you follow blogs you like, they're likely to follow you back too, and before you know it, you are commenting on each other's blogs.
When you self-host, you lose all that. You have to be more concerned about things like your Google page ranking and be a lot more careful tagging posts, otherwise your blog may not get seen by the people you want to see it. Or not at all. And if you're self hosted, you don't have access to the Reader; you have to find related blogs on your own. Your posts also won't be automatically seen by other WP bloggers, since WP.org hosted sites do not show up in the Reader. If you prefer to spend time writing new content than recruiting an audience for your blog, then being on WP.com saves you a whole lot of time.
2. The steep learning curve.
Wordpress.com is simple to use, compared to WordPress.org. While it does have a learning curve, it isn't very steep. After 3 – 4 days I was comfortable using the features. I felt like a pro in a couple of weeks. There are plenty of options for customization even if you use a free theme and don't upgrade. For this blog, I wasn't satisfied with the font used for the free Twenty-Ten theme (one of WP's most popular free themes), so I upgraded to Custom Design, so I had the option of changing the font to one I liked better. Custom Design is cheap and gave me a few other options too, but CSS (which is available with Custom Design) still eludes me. I know nothing about coding and fortunately, really don't have to worry about that anyway, since everything I want to do is available to me without knowing any coding at all. For a small price, you can also have a custom domain (which is necessary if you want to run ads)–all that means is you get a URL without the "wordpress.com" in it.
If you self-host, be prepared to have to learn not only coding, but also you need to know all about about plug-in installation, Jet Packs (whatever those are), software upgrades, bandwidth, backups and troubleshooting, analytics, and SEO, among many other things. Features we take for granted like Likes and Comments aren't automatically there; you have to install them yourself. Have a problem? You're on your own. There are no support forums to turn to as there are for WP.com users. You either have to try to figure things out on your own and fix any problems yourself, or you have to hire an outside party to do it for you. For someone who isn't especially tech-savvy, the idea of running into a problem and having no idea what to do about it is very scary indeed. And I really don't have much desire to have to learn all these things. I'd rather be writing.
3. The expense.
Being self-hosted isn't cheap. If you advertise, while you can make more money from advertising (WordPress.com only allows Wordads) and can choose the ads you run, to me that isn't worth it, because of the payout required from you just to be self hosted. You have to buy your domain name, then pay for someone (like GoDaddy.com) to host your blog (in leiu of WordPress, which hosts all WP.com sites). Expect to pay about $250 and $450 just for the first year.
WP.com is free and so are many of its themes. Even if you decide to upgrade, the expense is very small. I paid $18 for Custom Design, and it's good for a whole year. Even without knowing how to use the included CSS feature, I still think it was worth it. The themes available on WordPress.com are all attractive and there are so many free ones available that no blogger should have any problems finding one they love and that suits their blog. If you want to make some money from your blog, and you qualify, Wordads will post the ads for you and keep track of your earnings. All you need to do is set up a Paypal account. While you certainly have the potential to make more from a self-hosted site, the amount of work involved in gaining enough traffic to earn anything more than pocket change is daunting for the average blogger, who just wants to write.
4. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
I have no problems with WordPress.com, so why would I want to take the risk of losing everything I've worked so hard on for almost two years, or messing everything up beyond repair, by "importing" it to WP.org? Unless I start getting massive amounts of traffic (unlikely) or run out of space and can't post anything new (and even then I understand it's possible to buy additional storage on WP.com), I have absolutely no reason to be self-hosted.
Why you might prefer self-hosting.
With all that said, if you're the sort of person who is challenged and excited by learning complicated new things, or if you want the sense of achievement and pride that someone like Opinionated Man experienced once he mastered the process of being self-hosted (at least the basics anyway, as he says you never stop learning and are forever having to tweak and make adjustments), then being self-hosted may be the right choice for you. It may also be the right choice if you prefer to own your domain name (and hence, your blog) rather than just rent it from WordPress. When you own your own home, you have the freedom to tear down walls (and run the risk of the whole house falling down and crushing you to death), paint the exterior shocking pink, build a sarcophagus in the bathroom, or install a Roman fountain in the living room. If you rent, you are probably limited to neutral colored walls and you can't install freaky things or tear anything down.
I'll stick with my plain white walls, thank you. I can still hang pretty pictures and decorate my abode the way I want, and I know my landlord will come fix anything that breaks. I prefer my WordPress dumbed down so I can just write and leave the complicated tech stuff to others.
Further reading:
7 Reasons Why Novices Should Not Self-Host WordPress


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Chasing Azrael
Hazel Butler
Gritty New Paranormal Mystery Series Raises Vital Awareness of Bipolar Disorder
The 'Deathly Insanity' series uses gripping urban mystery and heaps of the paranormal to keep its readers on the edge of their seats. However, the series is also serving a vital dual-purpose by openly examining societal attitudes towards Bipolar Disorder and Depression. The first volume, 'Chasing Azrael', sees author Hazel Butler serve up the perfect start to what's poised to be a best-selling series.
When Andee Tilbrook's husband died, her preoccupation with death turned to obsession. Thanks to her unique ability to commune with the dead, her husband remains all too close, yet never close enough. Mired in grief, she clings to James's spirit, slowly losing touch with the world, her friends, and any desire to continue living.
But when her friend Josh becomes the target of Natalya, a jealous, capricious and violent Russian beauty, Andee somehow finds the strength to free herself from her misery long enough to help him. They soon discover that Natalya is wanted by the police for her involvement in a series of grisly murders, and Andee is dragged into the inquiry by the same man who investigated her own husband's death.
Torn between new feelings for Josh and fear that he might be involved in the murders that seem to threaten anyone who comes close, Andee must face the realities of her life, her past, and her very nature—and do it all in time to save her own life.
About the Author
Hazel is a twenty eight year old author, artist and archaeologist from Cheshire, England. She is currently in the final year of her PhD, which focuses on Gender Dynamics in Late Iron Age and Early Medieval Britain. She studied archaeology at The University of Manchester, then Bangor University, and spent two years doing corporate archaeology and research excavations, both in Britain and Austria. She has had papers published in international journals and online.
Since 2010, she has been working on Chasing Azrael, a Gothic Literary novel and the first in the Deathly Insanity Series, a set of Paranormal Mystery/Urban Fantasy novels with overlapping character and plot-lines. Although these novels have a strong supernatural element they also explore themes of mental health, in particular Bipolar Disorder, which Hazel herself has suffered from since her early teens.
Whilst many authors write for fame and profit, Hazel Butler is publishing books to garner attention of a very different sort – attention for Bipolar Disorder. Because many either misunderstand this condition or shun it completely, Butler uses a unique fusion of urban mystery, the paranormal, and a hint of romance, to study exactly how society perceives mental illness and what it is like to live with such conditions, both for patients and their loved ones.
The 'Deathly Insanity' series will delight fans of Kelley Armstrong, Charlaine Harris and Laurell K. Hamilton – or just about anyone else enjoying adult-geared fiction with a twist of the unexpected. A Paranormal Mystery series set to delve into the darkest aspect of human (and inhuman) nature, the series' first volume is 'Chasing Azrael'.
I knew nothing but the rhythmic slap of my feet on wet tarmac. It was the only thing I could focus on, and my focus was slipping.
I'm still running, I thought fuzzily, I have to keep running.
The back of my skull throbbed. Thick, cloying blood oozed into my hair, mingling with the rain, cherry streams running down goose-pimpled flesh. One bare, frozen foot landed badly. I tripped, knee slamming into the kerb. A car hurtled by, horn howling at my presence in its path, the glaring lights of its eyes forcing my own shut. When I opened them again, I was transfixed by the sight of my arms, waxen and tinged red in the fading glare of tail lights. I watched intently as bloodied rain dripped down them and into the gutter.
"James!" I screamed, but the night swallowed his name.
The injured leg dragged behind as I ran on, a dead weight, more blood now seeping between my numb toes. Rain pounded in my ears, the taste of blood biting at the back of my throat. Again I stumbled as more lights flashed in my eyes, stationary this time. Clustered before me stood a crowd of cars branded with words that should have offered comfort, but instead only confirmed my worst fears: Police, Paramedic. Squinting against the onslaught of headlights, I lurched past them. Voices added their cries to the night, but they were not my own, and they were not his, so I ignored them, the world twisting around me as my head grew ever lighter and the lights grew ever brighter.
Chasing Azrael, published by Aädedian Ink, is available now.
For more information, visit Hazel-Butler.com.


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Plumping up darts
Someone asked me a math question the other day and I had fun figuring it out. I thought it would be nice to write it down.
So here's the problem. You are getting to see sample data and you have to infer the underlying distribution. In fact you happen to know you're getting draws – which, because I'm a basically violent person, I like to think of as throws of a dart – from a uniform distribution from 0 to some unknown and you need to figure out what is. All you know is your data, so in particular you know how many dart throws you've gotten to see so far. Let's say you've seen draws.
In other words, given what's your best guess for ?
First, in order to simplify, note that all that really matters in terms of the estimate of is what is and how big is.
Next, note you might as well assume that and you just don't know it yet.
With this set-up, you've rephrased the question like this: if you throw darts at the interval , then where do you expect the right-most dart – the maximum – to land?
It's obvious from this phrasing that, as goes to infinity, you can expect a dart to get closer and closer to 1. Moreover, you can look at the simplest case, where and since the uniform distribution is symmetric, you can see the answer is 1/2. Then you might guess the overall answer, which depends on and goes to 1 as goes to infinity, might be . It makes intuitive sense, but how do you prove that?
Start with a small case where you know the answer. For we just need to know what the expected value of is, and since there's one dart, the max is just itself, which is to say we need to compute a simple integral to find the expected value (note it's coming in handy here that I've normalized the interval from 0 to 1 so I don't have to divide by the width of the interval):
and we recover what we already know. In the next case, we need to integrate over two variables (same comment here, don't have to divide by area of the 1×1 square base):
If you think about it, though, and play symmetric parts in this matter, so you can assume without loss of generality that is bigger, as long as we only let range between 0 and and then multiply the end result by 2:
But that simplifies to:
Let's do the general case. It's an n-fold integral over the maximum of all darts, and again without loss of generality is the maximum as long as we remember to multiply the whole thing by . We end up computing:
But this collapses to:
To finish the original question, take the maximum value in your collection of draws and multiply it by the plumping factor to get a best estimate of the parameter
October 13, 2013 at 8:26 am
I was just about to leave but saw this and couldn't resist — sorry, haven't actually read your post past the statement of the problem, but isn't the maximum likelihood estimator of d just max x(i) itself? The probability that max x(i) is less than or equal to, say, y given d is (y/d)^n where n is the number of draws.
October 13, 2013 at 8:27 am
Wonderful explanation. I'm blown away by your ability to write these essays so quickly and clearly.
Perhaps as interesting as your problem, though, is how you apply it in practice – when is the assumption that you are seeing a draw from a uniform distribution (or whatever appropriate distribution) justified?
Suppose, for example, that you wanted to understand how often a company rated BBB+ by S&P files for bankruptcy. Looking at some historical data is probably a reasonable way to start.
However, when your favorite Wall St. sales team shows up at your door looking for a guarantee on a specific BBB+ rated company that they've selected, assuming this company was selected at random is going to get you in a load of trouble!
As an aside, the problem related to you problem, which Wikipedia calls the "Secretary Problem" is one of my favorites:
I first saw it in a neat book by Stephen Krantz called "Techniques of Problem Solving" where he works through it with numbers in envelopes.
October 13, 2013 at 8:28 am
The book "Digital Dice: Computational Solutions to Practical Probability Problems" has a nice formulation of this problem, and its known as the German Tank problem ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem ).
October 13, 2013 at 10:07 am
What does "best guess for d" mean in this context? I mean, I get that you're saying "expected value of max(x), given d, is dn/(n+1)" but it's not totally obvious this translates into something I might mean by "best guess", e.g. is it a maximum likelihood? Would this guess be licensed by a Bayesian reasoner under some reasonable prior on d? Is there a natural loss function where this estimate minimizes expected loss? I actually don't even really get why it's obvious that only max(x) matters. I'm sorry, I read something about the James Stein estimator (http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~omkar/329/chapter1.pdf) that blew my mind and it made me feel like I have to be super-pedantic about this stuff if I'm to have any hope of understanding it.
October 13, 2013 at 10:51 am
I'm with JSE. I think you have answered the much more interesting question about what is the likely max of a collection of numbers between 0 and d, but if you assume that the d itself was chosen, say, at random between 0 and N (or in fact according to any probability distribution which is nonincreasing) then I think it's clear that the most likely value for d given a collection of samples x_i is just max(x_i), since a sample close to that one is more likely for smaller d, provided it is possible at all.
October 13, 2013 at 11:08 am
But I think this kind of reasoning is often raised as an objection to straight-up maximum likelihood arguments, because people like Cathy's answer better than the d = max(x) answer!
October 13, 2013 at 11:03 pm
I have a feeling this must be the topic of a hundred math papers somewhere if you could find them. It's an example of a problem where the maximum likelihood estimator result doesn't feel right (it is max x(i), see for example http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-443-statistics-for-applications-fall-2006/lecture-notes/lecture2.pdf). In fact it doesn't even feel right to base the estimate only on max x(i). Shouldn't the estimate be different if all the draws are bunched near max x(i) than if max x(i) is five times the second-highest draw?
October 14, 2013 at 6:45 am
Yes I see what you mean — it's not intuitively obvious.
October 14, 2013 at 8:43 am
This is where I lose you — "d" could be anything.
Is there a hidden assumption here that the distribution is smooth? monotonic? Because it may be non-linear, and then you're screwed because your "best" guess may be worthless.
Same situation arises using the old P(n)+P(1)=>P(n+1) trick. It doesn't work if [n, n+1] includes a bifurcation point.
October 14, 2013 at 9:09 am
OK I couldn't sleep and thought about this a little more. The Bayesian way to do this would be to impose some prior distribution f on d; then the posterior, given your n observations with max(x(i)) = m, is going to be 0 for d = m. So what's your "best guess" if that's your distribution on d? Well, first of all, that depends on what f is. It can't REALLY be "uniform distribution on the real numbers" but since that's what you want f to be, let's be fake Bayesians and say that's what it is — after all, that gives us an honest distribution when n >= 2.
So with this distribution, what's your "best guess" for d? Well, that depends on what your loss function is, I guess. If you're trying to minimize expected squared error, then you want to pick the mean, which doesn't exist for n <= 2 and otherwise is m(n-1)/(n-2), i.e the plump factor is (n-1)/(n-2). If you want to maximize chance of "being right," that's the same as maximum likelihood, which gives plump factor 1. (I think we all rightly reject this answer!) If you want to minimize expected absolute error I guess that amounts to taking the median of the distribution, which gives you a plump of 2^(1/(n-1)).
The plump of (n+1)/n is what you get if e.g. you take d to be distributed proportionally to d^{-2}.
I wonder which of these estimates, if any, people really think is "best"?
October 14, 2013 at 9:13 am
Hey look here's a short exposition of exactly this!
(n+1)/n is the "minimum variance unbiased estimator."
October 15, 2013 at 8:09 am
I agree with lots of the comments above on the problems of defining what 'best guess' might be. This problem is a fun case where you can have lots of approaches that give interestingly different answers. You're right that the number of observations and the largest observation are sufficient statistics (I think that's the right terminology).
The largest observation is the max-likelihood estimate.
A Bayesian would need a prior, and probably a conjugate prior to make any analytical progress. The family of Pareto distributions is workable here.
You probably want to use an uninformative prior and the (improper) prior 1/d works well. The posterior is in the Pareto family and you can then read off percentiles from the posterior predictive.
You can seek a predictive interval rather than a confidence interval – e.g. seek an estimator d-hat such that you have a 95% (or 50% or whatever) probability of the next observation (not the unknown parameter! who cares about that?) falls below d-hat.
With the sufficient statistic to hand you can even follow Fisher's fudicial probability approach and seek d-hat such that d has a 95% (etc) probability that d lies below d-hat. The fiducial distribution for d turns out to be Pareto too.
October 16, 2013 at 11:19 pm
As mentioned by another commenter, this is known as the "German tank problem" and Wikipedia has an article giving a couple of approaches to it. E. T. Jaynes called this the "taxicab problem" and treats it very thoroughly from a Bayesian perspective in section 6.20 of his book "Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science."
October 18, 2013 at 9:05 pm
Some quick matlab/octave code to settle the issue once and for all:
results = zeros(NTRIALS,NESTIMATES);
for ii = 1:NTRIALS
x = rand(1,NN);
results(ii,:) = [max(x), max(x)*(length(x)+1)/length(x), 2*mean(x), 2*median(x)];
bias = mean(results-1);
deviation = std(results);
Running it gives bias = [ -0.0100 -0.0001 0.0007 0.0009]
and deviation = [0.0097 0.0098 0.0575 0.0993]
So Cathy's method appears to be unbiased with the least variance. Good enough for a lazy engineer.


text:
living in moments…
My friend Jane Anne Davis had arrived from Atlanta hours before me and was on her lonesome. I messaged her periodically to see how she was faring and to report my ETA. We hadn't seen each other in over a year and a half and in the meantime, Jane had kicked not one, but two types of cancers' ass! This was going to be our little celebratory break from real-life and we were anticipating lots of laughter and downright silliness! She was a little concerned because she had tried to make friendly overtures, but was feeling like a wallflower at a jr. high dance. I arrived at the hotel and promptly went to our room. I couldn't figure out why Jane wasn't answering my insistent knocks and so, I called her. We both figured out pretty quickly why I wasn't standing in front of the door she had just opened and I was thankful no one was home in room 7002 and then drug my travel disheveled self down the hall to the elevators, across the lobby, past the gift shop, desk, casino, buffet, snack shop, and onto the elevator that would take me to room 702. This time when I knocked Jane answered and I dragged my huge suitcase that had lost a leg somewhere in the airport into the room, I let go of the suitcase that promptly fell over cuz…missing leg and gave Jane a big hug!
"We are going to push each other to talk to everyone!", I pronounced. "We are going to make sure we have fun!"
And we did! When folks walked by us the next morning, we tried to guess who was there for the convention. We decided plaid was a fairly predictable clue and if you were wearing plaid/tartan sorry about your luck, but we were talking to you! Some folks weren't too hard to figure out. Their Outlander and Through the Stones matching T-shirts were dead giveaways. We met a lovely couple who had never read the books, but were here because of the TV series and had the costumes to prove it!
We joked that her husband looked enough like Ron Moore to be his brother! We then talked with a lovely lady who was a retired jr. high science teacher. She was sporting a fun vest chock full of Outlander pins and patches. She told us she loved Outlander's historical aspects and that she spent a lot of her time volunteering. She shared with us that her team (the Hoosier Honeypots) had a plan to win the trivia contest and therefore, dinner with Terry Dresbach! She showed us a copy of a book of questions she had created and had been studying. I think she said there were 800 questions! I'm not sure if her group won, but she looked like she was going to have a blast anyway! They had a rooting section with signs!
Eventually, we made our way to lunch where I happened upon folks I talk to very frequently on Twitter, but had never met! Sitting with Cyndi Hayes was Carole Braun and her friend Sandy Dawar and Jill Shirley. I just kept looking at these folks I felt I knew! It was a bit surreal. I told Jill she looked awfully familiar to me and I kept feeling like we had met before. We talked for a little bit about attending the event and I happened to mention going to NYC Tartan Week. Suddenly, Jill jumped up and hugged me as she realized we had stood beside each other at the Tartan Week parade! Small world isn't it when you are an Outlander fan? I had a lovely time getting to know Jill and listening to her stories about meeting Ron Moore at the ball park in California! Meeting likeminded folks and my Twitter friends were some of the great moments that TTS afforded me.
We walked over to the convention center to register and peruse the goods for sale at Beardsley's Trading Post. I found a sweet pair of thistle earrings to match the necklace my husband bought me last year! There was a great mixture of items including a place to swap books!
The next big event of the day was the Trivia contest! Jane Anne and I had decided that we were just playing for kicks and giggles (even though I AM pretty bad-ass at trivia because I seem to know a lot of worthless and obscure shite) so, when I saw Mother Hildegarde's Novices was looking for four members that just wanted to have fun we asked to join! What a great bunch of ladies! They evidently knew what was up because they came with decorations and gift bags and some food! Buton was laid in the center of our table on a swathe of plaid and our gift bags included a Starbucks card, chocolates and some homemade cherry bounce! I think I've made some new Outlander friends in Terri Somgynari, Sandra Hicks and Carla Jasinski!
I was just biting into a piece of gifted shortbread when I heard my name being called. It was fellow blogger Connie Verzak and I stood up and braced myself for the hug she had warned me I was going to get! And, the answer to your question is yes, she is just as funny in person along with being warm, kind, and wicked smart. This was one of my favorite moments! Just sitting and laughing with Connie and her friends was one of the highlights of my weekend. She is truly a unique person and I loved meeting her!
Mother Hildegarde's Novices laughed our way through the first round of trivia and then we heard some clapping. On stage stood Terry Dresbach wishing everyone a good time. I have to say meeting Terry was "THE" moment for me. Like a lot of other fans, I've been interacting with Terry on Twitter for quite a while now. She is just who I thought she was kind, gracious, beautiful, funny, wise, and talented. The woman has confidence and personality to spare! Terry went from table to table greeting everyone. I'm sure she could feel the love and wanted to make sure everyone knew it was reciprocated.
Trivia was fun and challenging! We headed back to our rooms at the end of the night feeling like we had been part of a moment of love for Diana Gabaldon's story. A lot of people knew a lot about those books. Me thinks perhaps we have all read them a few times!
The next day started early, I think I was too excited to sleep for long! We headed out to get breakfast and then find our first workshop class. We found a seat around the big fireplace in the north tower lobby and wondered how this was going to work. A large group of us were here to "talk" about Outlander. The lady who was leading the class was a neighbor of Debbie Ford's. She said she was taking credit for introducing Debbie to the books and therefore planting the seed that lead to TTS! I noticed that she had what appeared to be a list of discussion topics in her hand. It was a fairly large list and I once again admired the attention to detail and thought that went into preparing for this conference. I had to laugh because she only got to ask one maybe two questions because if you give an Outlander fan an inch to talk about Outlander we'll take a mile! It was fascinating learning about how folks found the books and what the story and series had contributed to their lives. As per usual, we agreed on our love for the series, but EVERYONE had different ideas about how successfully those books had been transferred to the screen. I think we all agreed to disagree and despite our different opinions, I left feeling part of a very large, diverse group of folks who were passionate about this story!
The next class for us was the improv group. There were other classes available that included everything from whiskey tasting (at 8:30 in the morning) to sword fighting! I was starting to feel a bit nervous as it was getting closer to time for my very first press conference. I asked Jane for a few minutes to gather my nerves and she went ahead. I sat in the lobby going over my questions and testing my tape recorder. I heard a group of people behind me discussing the show and books and looked over to see several men in ties talking to a lady who was gushing about how if they loved the show they needed to read the books! I checked the name of the room I was supposed to be in for the press conference for about the fifth time and decided I was as prepared as I was ever going to be and headed in for the comedy show. As I was speaking to Jane, the troupe came into the room. It was the men in ties from the lobby who called themselves "Guys In Ties". They were great and made sure to let everyone know they had watched the show and were addicted. They asked the audience for help with the improv topics and we are a sick bunch, LOL! They seemed a bit taken back and I loved it! This comedic moment was just what I needed. After it was over, Jane headed for the Scottish themed lunch and I to the press conference. If you missed it here is my blog on that conference (link).
Loved the quilt presented to Terry by the Bonnie Beasties fan club after the press conference. Deann Roberts shared that they have previously created quilts for Sam Heughan and Cait Balfe and their group wanted to create one in appreciation of Ron and Terry. Squares with Outlander themes and messages to Terry and Ron were sent from all over the world and then stitched together and quilted. I overheard one of their group members say they wanted to "cover them in kindness" and I thought that was so sweet.
Soon everyone filed into the ballroom and found a seat for Terry's talk on Saturday afternoon. It was perfect. She just sat down and shared. In this moment, people felt like they had gotten to know her a bit better and found her be funny, genuine, and approachable. She said she understood that the fans were coming from a place of love. That all that she had seen was about love. And, I have to say, everyone I talked to loved her. In fact, I asked some attendees to share their perceptions and I'd like to share a few of their responses!
Kristen Leigh Stiner: I thought her talk was amazing!! The way she lit up speaking about her husband and children warmed my soul!! If I had a do-over I would want to thank her for being such a strong and powerful woman!! She is truly a champion for us all yet is so very humble!! I loved her before but now she is one of my favorite people!!
Terri Somgynari : I absolutely loved how she got all emotional and teary-eyed when she talked about Ron and her children!
It was the best part..knowing how much she loves them!
Gina Kutter: Terry allows us to see the real person and real life of our favorite costume designer! She draws us in to the Outlander family with her insights and tidbits! She embodies that Outlander truly is all about love!
Mary Alberg Faber: She is so funny and warm. The thing that struck me is how much she seemed to enjoy being there, and with us. Her attitute is inspiritional. Just watching the joy in her face when talking about Ron, the show, the stars, etc. gives me joy, in return. It was like talking to your best friend. (Oh yeah, she's a fan – maybe a bit of a closet fan; not quite at the totally obsessed stage.)
Janice Schurr: I, too, am not a "fangirl". I don't order t-hirts, or jewelry, or any of that stuff, although I've made donations to charities. I've never attended a fan gathering. But, this was more than that – it truly felt like a gathering of friends. Like a giant bookclub, where we all could express our opinions and share our love of the show and the guests. Plus, Debbie Belshause Ford and her crew made it seem personal – not just something put on by an organization or PR force, but something done by true fans. I think Terry's chat fit the group so well. It was like sitting around your living room chatting with a friend, not a "canned speech". And Grant, with his lovely sense of humor, was so personable and seemed to so like being there, despite his adventures in travel!
Thrynn Kirby: Was incredibly flattered to see her put as much energy and attention into sharing herself and our wonderful gathering as she does with everything . This was no fly by visit. This was one HUGE HUG from a fabulous lady. I am a fan ( read as one who loves) Ron is right. She does make the sun come out!
Tina Schröder Eakins: I loved that Terry SAW us. Not just as a group of fans, but as individuals. I really felt she was there for a chat, sitting on a chair, rather than a speaker.
Tammy Petree Proux: I was unsure what my opinion of her was before the convention. I just know that I loved the previous convention and the fun we had. I trusted in Debbie Belshause Ford to bring great people to everyone (along with great times). I was impressed with how normal, like all of us Terry seems to be. She was extremely approachable. I loved that she came and mingled with all of us during trivia competition; I know we were all caught by surprise. She has a normal relationship with her husband. I enjoyed her relating of stories of her family; the stories of Ron and his Disney love. There are so many things. I imagine she has some interesting views on politics, but it was good that it was left out of this arena. (Though I would have loved to discuss with her as I'm sure we're on the same page lol.)
Susan Hundt: I really appreciated her candor and her insights on fandom, especially coming to the conclusion that it is all about love.
Helen Kratzer Lyness: The instant connection we find with others at this event is amazing! Meet a stranger walking along with you in the hallway or in the elevator and they are immediate friends as you begin to talk about all the things you have in common. "Where are you from?" "Are you a book reader, or a show watcher?" When did YOU discover the books?" "Who turned you on to the books, or the show?" "Do you love Dougal or hate him?" What is your favorite part of Book One?" and so on . . . we have a new friend, connected in one moment, now friends forever! Thru the Stones does that for us!
I think that Terry has been adopted into the fandom.
Saturday night was the culminating event and we were treated to a Parisian dinner!
photo credit Becky Wiley
Each item on the menu had a connection to the books. I really liked the Chicken Dargentan that perhaps the Countess St. Germain liked! People wandered the room in costumes from the various time periods in the books. This was so great! There was such a huge variety of costume choices! Some folks were all out Parisian!
Others chose Scotland and a salute to the Jacobites…
Others were rocking 1700's Scotland, the 1940's, and 1968. I was impressed and I think Terry was too!
photo credits to Becky Wiley (aren't they terrific!)
The creativity Terry's designs inspired felt like a love letter to her art and talent! It was hard to pick, but I have to say I had my favorites. Cyndi Hayes WWII nurse Claire walked around the banquet swilling champagne and making us all smile in delight!
Carole Braun's version of Frank was a hoot and I loved how he kept trying to keep "drinking" Claire in line.
photo credits Becky Wiley
Yvonne Cloonan as Wee Roger with his biscuits in hand made us all clap in happy recognition.
There were a couple of renditions of the bar suit
and I loved the "deed" lady and 1968 Claire in trench coat and head scarf!
Missy Hermes as the deed of sasine lady and Julie Chenoweth Tierstriep as Claire
Terry shared on Twitter a delightful pair of sneakers done up by Karen Boilard as a homage to the red shoes and an 88 year old fan dressed as Claire who had captured her heart!
Every time you turned around, someone's ingenuity and attention to detail caused you to drop your jaw, laugh and smile. I'm so grateful for this bunch! They really added to the spirit of the convention and the fun.
Grant O'Rourke was the keynote speaker and I have to say I haven't been that entertained by a "speech" in a long time. I can't think of a moment that lagged. I found myself mesmerized and leaning forward to hear what funny, self-deprecating, and delightful thing he would say next. I think we were all moved by his definition of what it was like to be a Dad to his "wee man". "It's like falling in love everyday", he explained. His description of his talking Star Trek with Ron Moore was priceless. His failed joke had me laughing so hard I was crying. The silence, he added, in response to his comment was so deafening that even crickets backed out of the room. I would chortle about this at random moments throughout the rest of my trip.
photo credit Becky Wiley
There were some charming moments in the Q&A with Grant and Terry and the evening was rounded out with a meet and greet and dessert.
photo credit Heather Frey
I had some difficulty getting home (many of us did). It snowed! I said goodbye to Jane and thanked her for a lovely weekend and headed for the airport at 8:30 am.
At about one, I saw Jane again…at the airport where I got a very spicy Bloody Mary and we "punch drunk" tweeted other people who were "stuck in Iowa".
Even Grant got delayed and ended up going home with Debbie Ford. I loved the idea of him spending time with a Midwest family and giggled at the image of him riding in a big four-wheel drive truck (they had to talk him out of climbing into the back!). After several cancelled flights and sitting on the tarmac until they cleaned up the birds Jane's plane had hit, I finally made it home. I pulled into my driveway in Ohio around 2:10 am tired, but full of the joy of living some great moments.
Thanks TTS.
P.S. Please, I'd love to hear about your favorite moments in the comments!


text:
On September 17, 2012, I published a post "My DNA–What? Surely you Jest!! Just a few days earlier I received notification of my DNA results from Ancestry.com. My photograph of a torn up circle representing my DNA was prominently included in my post.
For amateur genealogists everywhere, Ancestry.com's $99 DNA test was probably their (and my) first chance to actually get a sense, scientifically of "where did I come from". I bought a test in the Fall of 2012, took the test, received the results and was totally confused. Nowhere in my DNA test results did I see any support for my research concerning my Western European roots. Since my own research indicated strong ties to France and Germany, I tore up my test results in frustration.
What a difference a year makes. On Oct. 17, 2013, I received an e-mail fromAncestry.com notifying me (and, I am sure, everyone else who has taken their DNA test) that "Our breakthrough update is here, with exciting new details and context…". The new results more closely mirror my years of research into my family tree.
In many respects the old and new results are similar. But in terms of my family history research they are miles apart. Much of the research I had given up as wrong, is now consistent with the new results.
My revised DNA test results: My original test results:
Scandinavian 33 % Scandinavia 43 %
Ireland 30 % [1] British Isles 40 %
Europe West 18 % Middle Eastern 10 %
Italy/Greece 12 % Southern European 7 %
Trace Regions
Iberian Peninsula 4 % [2]
Finland/N. Russia < 1 %
Great Britain < 1 %
Caucasus 1 % [3]
My research is validated in many significant respects: My Lewis ancestors presumably moved to the colonies in the 1600's from Wales rather than England.
My Western European DNA is consistent with the Mesle migration from Western France where they lived in St. Maixent, Alencon and Poitou (just North of the Iberian Peninsula) beginning in about 1000. By the 1300s, Mesles lived in the Normandy Region of France. By the the 1500s and 1600s, Mesles lived in Germany before relocating to the New World.
My great-grandfather Franz Mesle, nicknamed "the Swab", almost certainly lived at least briefly in Austria-Hungary. Germans who settled in Austria-Hungary, (near the Caucasus area) were called Swabs. Franz married Katharine Kirsch/ner, daughter of Conrad Kirsch/ner. A Catharine Kirschner was born in Jabuka, Austria-Hungary in the 1800's to Conradus Kirschner. By 1881 Franz and Catharine lived in Canada and then the U.S.
If my new and enhanced DNA results are correct that I am 1 % English, my maternal great grandparents, John Fox and Jane Bond Fox, both born in England, must be my only English ancestors.
My search continues. The biggest change in my results are, to be fair, a shift of DNA results from Northern Europe to Northern and Western Europe. But this seemingly minor change is significant in connecting my research to my DNA.
I now continue my search. Who am I? Where do I come from? What difference does it make? Maybe none. But my quest continues.
As for my Lumbee ancestors–I still do not have a trace of Native American DNA
[1] "Ireland" includes Wales for purposes of the DNA results
[2] The Iberian Peninsula includes extreme SW Europe: parts of France, Spain, Portugal, Andorra & Gibraltar
[3] Caucasus is on border between Turkey & Kazakhstan in W. Asia


text:
And the battle of the Browns quarterbacks begins
Charlie Frye is jazzed now that training camp has kicked off.
Aiming to hold off Derek Anderson and win the Browns' quarterback job, Frye disdained vacation when the team dispersed after June minicamp.
"I've spent some time working out in Arizona with (Donovan) McNabb and his guys, out there in that heat," Frye said. "I think I'm in good shape. I'm ready to go. Let's just go out here and work our butts off and see what happens."
Head Coach Romeo Crennel said Frye has "a leg up" on Anderson, based on making 18 starts to Anderson's three with the Crennel-era Browns.
Crennel quickly added, "That doesn't mean it's not a competition."
It was hard to take much from Friday's short practice. On one short throw in a seven-against-air drill, air won. With no defense, Anderson short-hopped a ball to rookie Syndric Steptoe.
That memory will evaporate when the hitting starts.
"I'm in it," Anderson said of the run to be No. 1. "Fighting all the way."
Frye practiced under watch from his former University of Akron coach, Lee Owens. Afterward, Frye handed a $50,000 check to a boys club Owens supports.
"Coach Crennel likes competition at every position," Frye said. "No. 1, that builds depth. No. 2, guys push each other."
Frye, Anderson and Ken Dorsey did Friday's pushing. Rookie quarterback Brady Quinn was the team's only contract-related holdout.
General Manager Phil Savage vowed to "work into the night" to finish a deal with the former Notre Dame star.
Quinn, a No. 22 overall pick, is supposed to be an NFL-ready rookie. Can he start right away?
"Every day that passes, it eliminates some of that chance," Savage said. "(Even with) Brady coming into the beginning of training camp, he was going to have to perform at a level that was clearly better than the level of Charlie, Derek and Ken Dorsey."
On the other hand, Savage said, "I'm not fearful at all that Brady can't catch up. Plenty of people are excited about Bra¬dy. We are, too. We're still anxious to get him in here."
Wright Late
Rookie Round 2 pick Eric Wright signed in time to make Friday's first full-squad practice but didn't make it to Berea until 8 p.m.
Crennel seemed to give him a pass, saying younger players from the West Coast don't always get flights worked out on time.
Left tackle Joe Thomas, who has the same agent as Wright, signed a $23 million deal that ties him to the Browns through 2011, then suited up and practiced.
"Both sides felt a bit of pressure," Thomas said. "We were lucky to get the deal done."
He didn't run out to Denny's to start spending like a rich kid.
"I signed at about 1 a.m., and you don't get the money for a while," he said. "I got a new house. That's enough."
Relieved over his contract resolution, Thomas said, "It was vitally important for me to be here today."
Right Stuff
Thomas projects as the starting left tackle. That would leave incumbent Kevin Shaffer and veteran Ryan Tucker as right tackle candidates.
Savage said there have been brief discussions about wheth¬er Tucker can fill the open right guard job. Savage said the team doesn't want Shaffer to play guard or center.
Savage Says
In a media huddle Friday, Savage said:
- On Jamal Lewis. "A lot of people will think about what he's done the last two years (906 rushing yards, 1,132 yards) as opposed to when he rushed for (2,066 yards in 2003). I think he'll end up right in between. The mentality and fierceness he brings to the football field ... it's invaluable."
- "It's just a matter of time before the Browns are a legitimate contending team." He declined to predict anything specific about 2007.
- Wideout Braylon Edwards and safety Brodney Pool need to play like high draft picks who have been around a few years.
- The stadium, which became a mess when a water line broke during a Kenny Chesney concert, will be ready for the Aug. 11 preseason opener.
- Second-year cornerback DeMario Minter has a foot problem, which isn't a good problem after not playing amid injury issues as a rookie.
Extra Points
- Center LeCharles Bentley was examined by doctors twice this week and will remain out while rehabbing. "This has been the plan all along," Bentley's agent, Jonathan Feinsod, told The Associated Press. "LeCharles is continuing to do what he's been doing. Everything is on course. We couldn't be happier. He's continuing to get stronger and better."
- Charlie Frye said new coordinator Rob Chudzinski did a thorough job installing an offense in the spring. "There's no excuses for not knowing the system now," Frye said. "Everything's in."
- The team opted for a faceless press guide cover, with three or four unidentifiable players lifting their hands into a group fist in front of the Cleveland skyline.
Reach Canton Repository sports writer Steve Doerschuk at (330) 580-8347 or e-mail email@example.com


text:
The Walt Disney Co. has finally unveiled new details about its proposed "Avatar"-themed land at Disney's Animal Kingdom, two years after striking a deal for the theme-park rights to the blockbuster film franchise.
Disney released its first artistic renderings for the project Friday night. They depict visitors immersed in the lush landscapes of "Pandora," the fictional planet setting for the 2009 film, including walking among floating mountains with cascading waterfalls and floating down a jungle river with bioluminescent plants.
Disney said the land will also include a ride in which guests "discover what it feels like to soar into the sky riding a Banshee," winged creatures that played a starring role in the James Cameron-directed movie.
Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time, with about $2.8 billion in worldwide ticket sales.
In addition to the Avatar land, Disney said it would make other additions to Animal Kingdom, the youngest of the four theme parks at Disney World.
They will include a new nighttime show with live music, floating lanterns, water screens and "swirling animal imagery" set along the Discovery River in the center of the theme park.
Disney said it will add further nighttime entertainment as well, including a nighttime version of its "Kilimanjaro Safaris" ride, the most popular attraction in the park.
By adding things to do in the evening, Disney hopes to get visitors to spend more time in Animal Kingdom, often criticized by guests as merely a "half-day" park.
Many visitors currently prefer to combine Animal Kingdom with something else, such as a second visit to the popular Magic Kingdom in the afternoon or evening, which has contributed to chronic overcrowding in the Magic Kingdom while leaving Animal Kingdom well under capacity.
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text:
Stuart Cramer's first season is approaching
CRAMERTON — It's hard to treat Stuart Cramer's football squad like a normal junior varsity team.
As the only football team representing Gaston County's brand new school, the Storm receives the kind of attention a varsity team would receive, and that includes instructional attention.
"As far as the coaching aspect, the kids are getting varsity-level coaching this year, but they're JV players," head coach Ben McMillan said. "We might have added a few more plays than we would have with a JV team."
The varsity-level coaching is a product of a six-coach staff, higher in number than some JV teams. More coaches means more individual attention, which could lead to accelerated player development.
The Storm will certainly take that, especially considering where they're headed. After this initial year as a junior varsity team only, the Storm will add a varsity team next season even though the school still won't have a senior class. The school opens this fall with only a freshman and sophomore class and will add one class each of the next two years.
"Next year is probably going to be the toughest year — varsity next year with no varsity experience and no seniors," McMillan said.
For now, the Storm is trying to lay a solid foundation for the program with a successful JV season. Stuart Cramer has scheduled 10 opponents, including six of its fellow Gaston County schools.
Among the top players are sophomore tight end/defensive end Scott Moore, freshman receiver/linebacker Darnell Johnson, sophomore lineman Dillon Rhew, freshman quarterback/linebacker Noah Oxendine, freshman quarterback Mac England and freshman receiver/defensive back Isaiah Foust.
McMillan, the offensive coordinator, is installing a spread offense led by Oxendine and England, who have different playing styles but will both see time at quarterback.
"It's going pretty well actually," McMillan said of the offense. "The kids are really picking up the plays."
Defensive coordinator Matt Scholz plans to run a 4-2-5 scheme.
Player participation hasn't been a problem as 44 athletes have joined the program. The players have "decent size" for a JV team, McMillan said. His only concern is the team is behind on strength training because the school's weight room was just outfitted this week.
"I think they're all pretty excited about being the first team out there, being the first ones to play on that field," McMillan said. "They've done a good job of coming together because a lot of them are from different schools."
The thought of playing on the first team in school history isn't lost on the players. Said Moore: "It's amazing. It really is."
You may contact Phillip Gardner at 704-869-1843 or twitter.com/gazettephil.
Stuart Cramer JV football schedule
Aug. 22 Ashbrook
Aug. 29 at Chase
Sept. 5 open
Sept. 12 South Point
Sept. 19 North Lincoln
Sept. 26 at Charlotte Country Day
Oct. 3 Cherryville
Oct. 10 Lake Norman Charter
Oct. 17 at North Gaston
Oct. 24 Hunter Huss
Oct. 31 at East Gaston
Nov. 7 open


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It began as a hobby for a teenage computer programmer named John Matherly, who wondered how much he could learn about devices linked to the Internet.
After tinkering with code for nearly a decade, Matherly eventually developed a way to map and capture the specifications of everything from desktop computers to network printers to Web servers.
He called his fledgling search engine Shodan, and in late 2009 he began asking friends to try it out. He had no inkling it was about to alter the balance of security in cyberspace.
"I just thought it was cool," said Matherly, now 28.
Matherly and other Shodan users quickly realized they were revealing an astonishing fact: Uncounted numbers of industrial control computers, the systems that automate such things as water plants and power grids, were linked in, and in some cases they were wide open to exploitation by even moderately talented hackers.
Control computers were built to run behind the safety of brick walls. But such security is rapidly eroded by links to the Internet. Recently, an unknown hacker broke into a water plant south of Houston using a default password he found in a user manual. A Shodan user found and accessed the cyclotron at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Yet another user found thousands of unsecured Cisco routers, the computer systems that direct data on the networks.
"There's no reason these systems should be exposed that way," Matherly said. "It just seems ludicrous."
The rise of Shodan illuminates the rapid convergence of the real world and cyberspace, and the degree to which machines that millions of people depend on every day are becoming vulnerable to intrusion and digital sabotage. It also shows that the online world is more interconnected and complex than anyone fully understands, leaving us more exposed than we previously imagined.
Over the past two years, Shodan has gathered data on nearly 100 million devices, recording their exact locations and the software systems that run them.
"Expose online devices," the Web site says. "Webcams. Routers. Power Plants. iPhones. Wind Turbines. Refrigerators. VoIP Phones."
Homeland security officials have warned that the obscurity that had protected many industrial control systems was fast disappearing in a flood of digital light.
"This means that these delicate [control computers] are potentially reachable from the Internet by malicious and skilled adversaries," a Department of Homeland Security paper concluded in 2010.
The number of intrusions and attacks in the United States is rising fast. From October to April, the DHS received 120 incident reports, about the same as for all of 2011. But no one knows how often breaches have occurred or how serious they have been. Companies are under no obligation to report such intrusions to authorities.
Industrial control systems are the workhorses of the information age. Like other computers, they run on code and are programmable. Unlike laptops, smartphones and other consumer technology, they're stripped down and have little style or glitz.
Costing as little as a few thousand dollars and up to $50,000, they're often housed in plain metal boxes with few lights or switches. Control systems now open and shut water pipes, regulate the flow of natural gas, manage the production of chemicals, and run data centers, power-plant turbines and commuter trains.
The control computers collect data from electronic sensors, analyze it and send it on to desktop computers that serve as the "human-machine interface." They afford managers precise and remote control of the machinery.
The most far-flung and powerful of these networked systems are called supervisory control and data acquisition, or SCADA. They give companies central control of large numbers of pumps, generators, oil rigs and other operations.
The allure of long-distance network control is hard to resist. Manufacturers of control computers have promised that such networks can cut costs by reducing the number of workers in the field. Siemens Industry Inc., a leader in the field, said in a recent marketing brochure that it is "more important than ever" to adopt control devices "to respond to the increasing international competitive pressure."
The systems are often hardened against weather or tough conditions and can run nonstop for months or years. But many were designed for another era, before the mesh of networks reached into every corner of the globe, and some of the systems rely on outdated hardware and software.
A recent examination of major control systems by six hacker-researchers working with the security firm Digital Bond found that six of seven devices in the study were riddled with hardware and software flaws. Some included back doors that enabled the hackers to download passwords or sidestep security completely.
Researchers found that one machine made by General Electric, the D-20, uses the same microprocessor installed in Apple computers two decades ago. The company that made its operating software stopped updating it in 1999. It is often shipped to customers with no meaningful security. "Security is disabled by default," the manual says. "To log in, enter any name; you do not need a password."
In a statement to The Washington Post, General Electric said: "The D-20 was designed for deployment in a layered security environment, in which asset owners and operators employ a range of measures to prevent, detect and respond to intrusions. GE actively works with our customers to design and support those security measures."
The company added that the software for the machine "is designed to be secure and includes a layer of password-protection, which can be activated if the customer chooses to do so."
Other machines had flaws that enabled the researchers to take control through electronic back doors.
In January, Digital Bond said the results were "a bloodbath, mostly."
"Most of the guys were able to hack their controllers in a single day," said K. Reid Wightman, a Digital Bond security researcher and former Pentagon cyberwarrior. "It's just too easy. If we can do it, imagine what a well-funded foreign power could do."
The owners of control computers long assumed that few outsiders understood or cared how power plants and other facilities worked. They also figured the systems were safe within their facilities, disconnected from outside networks.
But like much of the rest of the world, the systems were rapidly being linked to global networks, often through indirect connections. Many of those connections came as executives sought more refined detail about their operations. With few exceptions, corporate networks used by executives are linked in some way to the Internet.
Because of the strange nature of cyberspace, even an employee passing through a plant with a wireless connection on a laptop can create a temporary data link that exposes control systems to intruders.
"They have sort of connected through osmosis," said Marty Edwards, a senior cybersecurity official at the Department of Homeland Security. "What we have done is connect to everything."
The idea for Shodan came to John Matherly in 2003, when he was a teenager attending community college in California. Obsessed with the digital world, he named his project after a malevolent character in a video game called System Shock II. The character, Sentient Hyper-Optimized Data Access Network, or Shodan, is an artificial intelligence entity that thinks it is a goddess and sets out to eradicate humans.
Matherly, who grew up in Switzerland, toyed with his system for years as he earned a degree in bioinformatics from the University of California at San Diego and built his career as a programmer, data miner and Web developer. His early Shodan versions found only hundreds of devices a day on the Web, and the information was not searchable. After devoting months to the project in 2009, he made a breakthrough, solving the search problem and locating many more devices.
When he launched his first live version of the program, in November of that year, he thought it might catch on with software makers who wanted to know about the systems being used by potential customers. On his Web site, Matherly described his program as "the world's first computer search engine that lets you search the Internet for computers. . . . Find devices based on city, country, latitude/longitude, hostname, operating system and IP."
The Shodan software runs 24 hours a day. It automatically reaches out to the World Wide Web and identifies digital locators, known as Internet protocol (IP) addresses, for computers and other devices. The program then attempts to connect to the machines. If a connection is made, Shodan "fingerprints" the machine, recording its software, geographic location and other data contained in the identification "banner" displayed by devices on the Internet.
Such identifying information is called "metadata" — and it's far more common, useful and problematic than anyone had realized. Shodan compiles the information in Matherly's servers — about 10 million devices every month now — and makes it almost as easy to query online as a Google search.
At first, the Shodan discoveries seemed trivial: devices commonly linked to networks such as printers and Web servers. But as queries became more sophisticated, troubling findings started emerging. One researcher using the system found that a nuclear particle accelerator at the University of California at Berkeley was linked to the Internet with virtually no security. Another identified thousands of data routers — the devices that make networks possible — open to anyone. Because they required no passwords, they could be taken over with ease.
"It was only after nearly a year that individual researchers began digging deeper through the Shodan data to locate devices that weren't part of the known, discovered Internet," Matherly said. "Water-treatment facilities, power plants, particle accelerators and other industrial control systems had been hidden from traditional search engines."
As the dimensions of the challenge posed by Shodan became clear, the DHS Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team issued a stark warning in October 2010, noting "the increased risk" of brute-force attacks on "systems available on the Internet."
The alert recommended placing all control system assets behind firewalls, using secure remote-access methods and disabling default passwords.
A researcher at Cambridge University, Eireann Leverett, used Shodan to identify more than 10,000 control computers linked to the Internet, many of them with known vulnerabilities. Leverett concluded that many operators had no idea how exposed they were — or even realized that their machines were online.
"This could be used to carry out remote attacks on selected devices or identify networks for further reconnaissance and exploitation," Leverett wrote in a thesis, "Quantitatively Assessing and Visualising Industrial System Attack Surfaces," published in June 2011. "Malicious actors might already be doing this."
In the United States, security experts Billy Rios and Terry McCorkle said this spring that their research suggests the situation is worse than even Leverett demonstrated. Rios, who works for Google, and McCorkle, who works for Boeing, are both Shodan users who study control systems on their own time.
"The number of control systems on the Internet is far greater than anybody realizes," said McCorkle, who along with Rios recently discussed control computer vulnerabilities at the National Defense University at Fort McNair. "These systems are insecure by their nature."
Matherly said he wants his search engine used to improve security. But he said it can be used to shred it as well.
"Shodan has lifted the barrier. There's no going back," Matherly said. "Once you shed light on it, you can't go back into hiding."
One story from the Cold War shows that cyberattacks on control systems have been in the imagination for a long time. Though some details are hard to confirm, it describes an attack that experts believe could happen today.
In 1981, a Soviet KGB colonel who became a spy for France, code name Farewell, shared Soviet plans to use a Canadian front company to secretly acquire technology to automate the Trans-Siberian gas pipeline, according to "At the Abyss: An Insider's History of the Cold War," by Thomas Reed, a former Pentagon official. Tipped off by the French, U.S. officials set up a front company to sell the technology, but only after they made some undetectable alterations to the computer code.
The alterations eventually "reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the pipeline joints and welds," Reed wrote two decades later. "The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space."
A KGB veteran later disputed the account. A document on the CIA's Web site confirmed only that "contrived computer chips" were provided to the Soviets and "flawed turbines were installed on a gas pipeline."
Evidence of the threat to control computers mounted.
In 1997, a teenage hacker using a personal computer and a dial-up connection shut down part of a telephone network in Worcester, Mass., cutting off the local airport's air-traffic-control communications.
In 2000, Vitek Boden, a supervisor at a technology firm in Australia, was bitter that he did not get a job with the Maroochy Shire Council, according to Joseph Weiss, author of "Protecting Industrial Control Systems From Electronic Threats." Using a radio transmitter, Boden launched an attack against a wastewater-treatment system in Queensland, remotely accessing the control systems and releasing hundreds of thousands of gallons of raw sewage into local streams and parks. He was sentenced to two years in jail.
"Marine life died, the creek water turned black and the stench was unbearable for residents," an Australian Environmental Protection Agency official said later.
In 2007, skeptics still claimed that the threat of cyberattacks on real-world machinery was theoretical. In a demonstration called Project Aurora, the Department of Homeland Security along with power industry officials decided to test the theory themselves.
In the end, many doubters were silenced.
The target was a 5,000-horsepower diesel engine, the kind of machine that often serves as a backup generator for manufacturers and large organizations. Engineers at the Idaho National Laboratory hacked into the generator's embedded control computer through a network. By repeatedly triggering circuit breakers, they created massive torque on the machinery, which eventually started to shake, smoke and tear itself to pieces.
Mark Zeller, who specializes in industrial power systems at Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories Inc., said the Aurora Project set off a scramble in the power industry to identify links to cyberspace and improve "electronic" perimeter security.
Those efforts include assessing the links between control systems and networks and creating layers of defenses against intruders. In some cases, that means creating "air gaps" — physical separations that cannot be breached by wireless connections — between networks and control systems along with stronger password protection.
"They have really taken this electronic security perimeter thing seriously," Zeller said. "It's a big issue now."
At the same time, the DHS has stepped up its efforts, including providing advice and assistance to industries to reduce cyber-risks.
The government now routinely issues alerts about new threats to control systems. Alerts are also issued by a private industry group, the North American Electric Reliability Corp., or NERC, the organization of electrical grid operators in the United States.
Three weeks ago, NERC said that control computers on the Internet "face increased exposure" because of Shodan and hacking tools. The NERC alert said that "it is possible that hackers or hacktivist groups may cause sporadic component failures as they identify and interact with these devices."
A sophisticated new virus called Flame, apparently aimed at intelligence collection against Iran, was revealed last week, underscoring anew the threats in cyberspace. But the most powerful and ingenious cyberattack ever publicly disclosed involved industrial control systems in Iran. Called Stuxnet when its code was discovered on the Internet in the summer of 2010, the attack alerted the world to the true potential for attacks on critical infrastructure.
Last week, the New York Times reported that Stuxnet was part of a U.S.-Israeli covert operation against Iran approved by President Obama. Stuxnet targeted a control computer called an S7 produced by Siemens and used by the Iranian government to operate centrifuges in the process of enriching uranium.
The malicious code designed to attack the machines was included as payload in a package of software called a computer "worm."
The worm was launched into the Internet and spread rapidly around much of the world, like a virus during flu season. But most of the computers and systems infected were in Iran.
The worm code was designed to self-replicate. Investigators said it apparently infected flash drives in Iran, helping it jump from networks to unconnected computers at the Iranian nuclear processing facility in Natanz.
Stuxnet took advantage of four unknown software flaws, or zero days, to crack through security in a variety of computer systems. The attack code eventually directed the S7s to operate uranium-refining centrifuges at speeds beyond their tolerances while sending misleading data to monitors showing that all was well.
It was brilliant and devastating. Analysts believe that hundreds of centrifuges were damaged, though no one outside the operation knows for sure.
"The real-world implications of Stuxnet are beyond any threat we have seen in the past," said the authors of an analysis of the worm issued by Symantec, a computer security firm. "Stuxnet is the type of threat we hope to never see again."
Among those shaken to the core was Siemens.
"Stuxnet marked a turning point for the entire automation industry, turning theoretical problems into headlines," Raj Batra, president of the industry automation division at Siemens, told The Post.
News of Stuxnet jolted hackers around the world like a double shot of espresso, waking them up to the once-
obscure world of industrial control systems.
One of them was Dillon Beresford, an energetic hacker and security consultant in Texas. He read an article about the attack in Wired magazine.
"It inspired me," Beresford said. "I wanted to disprove that it would take a nation-state to pull this off."
"I'm like, no, I'm going to do this in my living room."
Beresford wasn't just being brash. He had found zero-day vulnerabilities over the years. "At the end of the day, it's all just code," he said.
Starting in January 2011, Beresford worked almost nonstop for two months. He focused on the Siemens S7 line of controllers.
Like any good hack, it started with research. Beresford found an online "coding library" run by a German researcher. It contained source code for a wide variety of computers, including the S7s. Night after night he studied, focusing in particular on what is known as the machine's communications protocol.
He discovered the protocol was designed to make it easier for machines to communicate with the Internet. Security was an afterthought.
Beresford persuaded his boss at the time — a manager at NSS Labs, a security firm — to buy him four of the industrial control systems for thousands of dollars each. "If you do find something, let people know you're from NSS," his boss told him.
The devices came mounted on heavy boards, ready for testing. The S7 is a plain rectangular metal container with heat vents and ports for cables, about the size of a large shoe box.
Beresford set them up on his workbench in the bedroom of his apartment in suburban Austin. He connected them to his laptop and began to hunt.
"I was up every night until 5 a.m.," he said. "I love to write code."
Several weeks into his experiments, Beresford made the first of several discoveries of flaws in the S7s. One of them took advantage of the fact that the protocol did not encrypt its communication with other networks, allowing a hacker to easily read and steal the "plain text" passwords.
Beresford said the protocol was created by designers who assumed the machines would operate behind the safety of an "air gap" between them and open networks. At the time, no one anticipated the use of thumb drives to close such gaps, as in the Stuxnet attack.
He also found a digital back door that enabled him to read the device's internal memory, including the password stored on the device.
In May 2011, Beresford sent his findings to the DHS. The feds studied his work and confirmed it. In an alert issued on July 5, the agency announced it was working with Siemens on the S7 vulnerabilities.
"I crushed it," he said. "All average guys, your typical hacker, could very easily replicate this."
Since then, using his Shodan account, Beresford has found more than 100 S7s online, all of them potential targets.
Batra of Siemens acknowledged the vulnerabilities and said the company is working hard to address them. The company last week announced it is offering new security enhancements for its industrial control systems.
"Siemens's automation products are rigorously tested with regard to industrial security and yet must be designed to also balance the requirements of open industrial solutions, which drive productivity," he said. "There will never be an endpoint when it comes to industrial security threats, but companies can better protect their systems by staying up to date with the research community, following the guidance of governmental agencies, and by working with responsible, technologically innovative vendors like Siemens."
Other hackers also began turning their attention to industrial control computers after hearing about Stuxnet.
One of them, an anonymous hacker who calls himself pr0f, is a bright, unemployed 22-year-old who favors hoodie sweatshirts and lives in his parents' home somewhere overseas. He is among the growing numbers of Shodan users.
After studying control systems in the wake of Stuxnet, he thought the insecurity of the devices seemed crazy and irresponsible.
"Eventually, somebody will get access to a major system and people will be hurt," he later said. "It's just a matter of time."
He vowed to prove how easy it was to get in. On Nov. 17, he saw an article online about an apparent industrial control system attack in the United States. The article said a hacker in Russia had apparently destroyed a pump in a water utility in Springfield, Ill.
Pr0f had been expecting something like this, but he was incredulous when he read a statement in the story from a DHS official.
"At this time there is no credible corroborated data that indicates a risk to critical infrastructure entities or a threat to public safety," the statement said.
The hacker fumed: How could Homeland Security play down something so important?
"It was the final straw," pr0f said. "I was angry. I said, 'Yep, let's do something.' "
The Springfield episode turned out to be an accident not connected to Russia, but he did not learn that until later. Impulsively, he began programming his computer to search the Internet for a Siemens S7 controller. The first one he found just happened to be an S7 in South Houston, a small town thousands of miles and an ocean away from where he sat.
The hacker navigated to the machine's Internet address. When prompted to identify himself as an approved operator, he knew just what to do, because he had read the manual. He typed in the default password: three simple digits. A moment later, he was at the controls of a water plant that serves 16,000 Texans.
"This required almost no skill," the young man wrote online a short time later, using an e-mail address in Romania to cloak his identity.
The S7 was installed when the town upgraded its water plant more than a decade ago. That was long before most people thought of industrial control systems as targets. "Nobody gave it a second thought," Mayor Joe Soto said. "When it was put in, we didn't have terrorists."
The intrusion took all of 10 minutes. The hacker did not cause any damage. Instead, he recorded images of the control system as proof of how easy it was for him to get in.
"I didn't actually know what the machine was going to control when I started, but I logged in, and well, saw the stuff I took screen shots of," he said in an e-mail exchange. "I was just amazed."
So was Soto, after he saw images of the plant's control panels on the Internet. He and other town officials ordered the gap closed immediately and then considered the implications.
"We're probably not the only one who is wide open," Soto said later. "He caught everyone with our pants down."


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A while back I told you that a piece that I had written about Carrie Fisher had been chosen for inclusion in the "Dearly Beloved" anthology from Zoetic Press. The publication is out and available for free pdf download! It came out a few weeks ago, but those of you who have been following my other blog know that things have been a little bit crazy for me. Regardless, it's a great project that I am very proud to be part of!
I don't think anyone can look back at 2016 and not think of at least one person that left us who had an impact on their life. Actors, writers, musicians, scientists – some of the biggest names in modern history passed on leaving us to mourn and try to come to grips over the deep sense of loss felt for someone we may have never met. I know it's something I've thought of a lot. And every time I see a video I never saw before, or am reminded of Carrie Fisher's talent I am still taken aback by both her loss and the feeling that comes with knowing you will never get to meet someone who helped to shape the way you see the world.
This publication is filled with people saluting the heroes they lost. They were funny, they were flawed, they were intelligent, they were human and they were larger than life. Join these authors as they explore the loss of someone how touched their life.
Please, visit Zoetic Press and download the anthology. I don't get any royalties or anything, but I would love to hear what everyone thinks.


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Event handlers are a great tool for managing errors and other events that occur during the execution of a package run. Using event handlers can however add additional time to the run of a package. Depending on the event that is selected it could cause more performance issues than others.
For example, if you have the OnInformation event selected then the package could fire off the event dozens of times during one run, but when you have the OnError event selected you will only see the event fire off on the failure of a package or task. So be very careful with event handler usage.
A side note on event handlers is they can be disabled. From the event handler tab you can open the properties menu and change the Disable property to true, which will disable the selected event handler. To disable event handlers all together in a package change the package level property called DisableEventHandlers to true. Try it out by using the OnInformation event before and after disabling to see the performance hit.


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ATLANTA (AP) — Joe Burrow turned in the greatest performance yet in his Heisman Trophy season, throwing for seven touchdowns and 493 yards as No. 1 LSU romped to a breathtaking 63-28 victory over No. 4 Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl semifinal game Saturday.
The Tigers (14-0) headed to the national championship game against e No. 3 Clemson clicking on all cylinders, having dismantled the Sooners (12-2) with a first half for the ages.
Burrow tied the record for any college bowl game with his seven TD passes — which all came before the bands hit the field for the halftime show at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Justin Jefferson was on the receiving end for four of those scoring plays, also tying a bowl record.
For good measure, Burrows scored an eighth TD himself on a 3-yard run in the third quarter, thoroughly dominating his expected duel with Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Heisman runner-up.
All that as the Tigers played with heavy hearts. Shortly before the game, LSU offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger learned that his daughter-in-law, broadcaster Carley McCord, was among five people killed in a plane crash in Louisiana. The small plane went down shortly after takeoff for what was supposed to be a flight to Atlanta for the game. Emsminger had tears running down his cheeks during warmups, but he was in his usual spot high above the field when the game kicked off, calling plays along with passing game coordinator Joe Brady.
GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) — Trevor Lawrence connected with Travis Etienne on a 34-yard touchdown strike with 1:49 left and Clemson beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
The Tigers went 94 yards on four plays in 1:18, with Lawrence completing all three of his passes and mixing in an 11-yard run. The sophomore quarterback who has never lost a college start passed for 259 yards and two scores and ran for a career-high 107 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown dash late in the first half.
Lawrence added a 2-point conversion to Tee Higgins, but it left plenty of time for Ohio State and Justin Fields to respond. The Buckeyes drove to the Clemson 23, but on second-and-7, Fields fired to the end zone and his pass was picked off by Nolan Turner with 37 seconds left. Ohio State receiver Chris Olave broke off his route and left Fields throwing to no one.
One more knee from Lawrence and defending national champion Clemson secured its 29th straight victory and fourth trip to the CFP championship game in five years.
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Journey Brown ran for 202 yards and two touchdowns, Garrett Taylor returned an interception 15 yards for a score after another big play by All-America linebacker Micah Parsons and Penn State beat Memphis in the highest-scoring Cotton Bowl.
While Penn State (11-2, No. 10 CFP) gave up its most points and yards all season against the big-play Group of Five Tigers, Parsons pulled down quarterback Brady White, who flipped the ball right into the hands of Taylor. That put the Nittany Lions up 45-36 in the final minute of the third quarter, only three plays after Brown had been stopped short on a fourth-and-1.
American Athletic Conference champion Memphis (12-2, No. 17 CFP) played its first game under coach Ryan Silverfield. The offensive line coach was promoted when Mike Norvell left after four seasons to become Florida State's coach this month.
White was 32-of-51 passing for 454 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. Patrick Taylor Jr. and Kenneth Gainwell both had rushing touchdowns for the Tigers, but the rest of their points came on a Cotton Bowl-record six field goals by Riley Patterson, including a record-long 51-yarder.
The Tigers finished with 542 total yards, but White was sacked a season-high six times and didn't throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener. The Nittany Lions had 529 total yards.
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Ian Book threw for 247 yards and a touchdown and Tony Jones Jr. scored on an 84-yard run, helping Notre Dame dominate Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl.
Book completed 20 of 28 passes without an interception, including a 27-yard scoring throw to Chase Claypool to help the Fighting Irish (11-2, No. 15 CFP) win their sixth straight game.
Claypool had seven receptions for 146 yards and was selected the game MVP. Jones finished with 135 yards rushing. Brock Purdy was 17 of 30 for 222 yards and no interceptions for Iowa State (7-6).
More AP college football coverage: https://apnews.com/Collegefootball and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25