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I have twice blogged about the Bowles-Simpson deficit-reduction plan (here and here). As I said in the first of the two posts, Bowles-Simpson
aims at too many spending targets, and misses the elephant in the room: "entitlement" commitments, namely, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (and their promised expansion via Obamacare).
How badly does Bowles-Simpson miss the real target, namely, so-called entitlements? Here's a closer look:
Bowles-Simpson ducks the long-term problem and focuses on the deficit through 2020. From now until then, the annual rate of spending on entitlement programs is expected to rise by $1.3 trillion (that's projected spending in 2020 less spending in 2010). At
the same time, the annual rate of so-called discretionary spending (which includes defense) is expected to rise by less than $0.2
trillion. The other big kicker is interest, which is expected to rise by $0.7 trillion.
So, Bowles-Simpson would reduce the projected increases in Social Security and government health-care programs by a "whopping" $0.1 trillion, while whacking about the same amount out of discretionary spending, jacking up tax revenues by $0.2 trillion, and saving about $0.2 trillion in interest expenses. Net result: the projected deficit for 2020 shrinks by about $0.8 trillion. (I derived the estimates from Figures 15 and 16 of the appendix to the Bowles-Simpson report.)
What the Bowles-Simpson report doesn't say is that the bill for entitlement spending will keep growing after 2020. You can tell that by looking at the trends in the "mandatory" spending lines of Figure 15 (the "plausible baseline"). And you can see the trend starkly in figure A-1 of of CBO's long-term budget outlook, as of August 2010. Social Security's share of GDP rises until the 2030s, then levels off. But the expected share of GDP consumed by federal heath-care programs just keeps rising.
The Bowles-Simpson band-aid would merely mask the essential problem for another 10 years, at which point it will be that much harder to trim the "commitments" represented by entitlement programs, and that much harder to find places to cut "discretionary" spending. (Defense, as usual, will be a tempting target.)
The bottom line: If long-term entitlement "commitments" aren't reduced soon, the tax increases required to bring the deficit under control will be huge and economically crippling. Entitlements will suck up money that could go into growth-producing investments, and the economy will be locked in a death-spiral toward permanent stagnation.


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True Value of Great Relievers, Part 2
By Eriq Gardner
Simply put, a fantasy team's ERA and WHIP is a function of the total amount of earned runs, hits, and walks given up over the total number of team innings pitched. What matters most is finding pitchers who will save a team's ratios from damage by limiting the number of earned runs, hits, and walks allowed.
We showed why the advantage of having great relievers instead of bad relievers is comparable to having great starters instead of mediocre ones, and it's almost time to explain how one can get a strategic edge by leveraging the full value of relievers.
They are not alone. Yes, not all are closers, but remember that in our expansive view of the value of relievers, we've shown that they provide value beyond saves, and thus, it's fair to consider middle relievers and set-up men too. In fact, anybody who looks at an in-season player rater (on service providers like ESPN) measuring the real value contributed by players will see quite a number of middle relievers near the top of the charts, largely on the strength of contributions in ERA/WHIP. Last year, for example, Wuertz was roughly the 38th most valuable pitcher in 5-by-5 roto leagues, ahead of solid closers like Francisco Cordero and good starters like Ryan Dempster.
s — mixing in some mid-to-late round starters with great strikeout rates such as Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa — can compete strongly in the category of strikeouts too.

subset: commoncrawl


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Bears notes: Williams returns to practice
Rookie No. 1 draft pick Chris Williams practiced Wednesday for the first time since injuring his back in Chicago's second practice in training camp.
Williams had surgery to repair a herniated disc on Aug. 6, the night before the Bears' preseason opener.
Williams was limited in practice, taking part only in individual work and 1-on-1 drills with defensive linemen. The left tackle was thrilled to be back on the field.
"You feel less out of sight," Williams said. "I'm trying to get back in the mix, show I can play and prove myself."
Coach Lovie Smith said it was "good to see him in uniform" and that this was about when he thought Williams would return.
"This is one step," Smith said. "It's not like he was out there going fullspeed. He still has a ways to go."
Not too long, Williams said.
"I wish they would turn me loose, but whatever the doctor says," Williams said. "I'm happy where I'm at. They are happy where I'm at.
"I wouldn't' put any schedule on it, but as soon as they turn me loose. It will be soon. Get your popcorn."
From foe to friend
Second-year cornerback Marcus Hamilton played in his first NFL game Sunday. He was credited with two passes defensed and one tackle – against the Bears. Now he is a Bear. A day after beating Chicago 27-24 in overtime, Tampa Bay waived its 2007 seventh-round draft pick.
The Bears claimed Hamilton the next day, waiving former second-round draft pick Mark Bradley to make room.
"It was a little weird, going from playing against them, but that's the nature of the business and that's what God wants me to do right now," Hamilton said. "I'm excited to be part of this organization."
Hamilton, who spent his entire rookie season on Tampa's practice squad, considered Sunday's game against the Bears an audition.
"My goal during that game was I knew I had a chance to put some stuff on tape," Hamilton said. "I knew 31 other teams were looking at the film, so I knew anything was possible."
Hamilton was a two-time second-team All-ACC pick at Virginia, where he made 15 interceptions, tied for third in Cavaliers' history with Tampa Bay's Ronde Barber.
Injury report
Five Bears' did not practice Wednesday: DT Tommie Harris (knee), WR/KR Devin Hester (ribs), DE Alex Brown (ankle), CB Nathan Vasher (shoulder) and WR Marty Booker (personal reasons).
Besides Chris Williams, other Bears limited in practice were: Lance Briggs (foot), Mike Brown (rest) and Brian Urlacher (rest).
For Philadelphia, DE Victor Abiamiri (hand) is out, WR Kevin Curtis, who had 1,110 receiving yards last year, practiced Wednesday for the first time since having surgery for a sports hernia in August, while RB Brian Westbrook (ankle), FB Tony Hunt (concussion), QB Donovan McNabb (chest) and G Shawn Andrews (back spasms) all sat out practice. McNabb is expected to play and coach Andy Reid said all the others are uncertain at this time.
Matt Trowbridge can be reached at (815) 987-1383 firstname.lastname@example.com.


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WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama's victory in Pennsylvania marks the sixth straight presidential election in which state voters have picked the Democrat.
Which raises the question: Has Pennsylvania finally lost its swing-state status?
The battleground status of the historically competitive state was the subject of political scrutiny for much of 2012. Even when the Republicans made a brisk, last-minute attempt to wrest it away when some polls showed the race tightening, Obama still won without breaking much of a sweat.
If Pennsylvania was shaded blue on a dry erase board after previous elections, this year it might be colored in with a permanent marker. Pundits and politicians interviewed this week offered differing takes.
Read more: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-swing-state-status-lost-20121108,0,2981343.story


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Welcome to Metropolitan Cardiology Consultants
Come to Metropolitan Cardiology Consultants for comprehensive information and the latest treatment for your cardiovascular conditions. Our physicians, staff and website will help you gain a better understanding of your heart health. You'll learn ways to prevent illness through healthy lifestyle choices and discover our resources for treating existing conditions through a combination of testing, monitoring and therapies.
Metropolitan Cardiology Consultants is a full service cardiology group practice of seven cardiologists. We have three convenient locations to serve our patients. Our practice provides cardiovascular services of the highest quality. All three of our locations have state-of-the-art nuclear cardiology facilities providing both exercise and pharmacological stress testing with nuclear imaging. A full range of diagnostic testing and procedures are available at our locations including echocardiograms, stress echocardiograms, diagnostic cardiac ultrasound and other peripheral vascular diagnostic testing, holtor monitoring, pacemaker and AICD interrogations and follow-up.
Invasive and Interventional Cardiac Services such as cardiac catheterization, intracoronary stenting, balloon angioplasty, atherectomy, rotoblader and peripheral vascular intervention for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease are offered at area hospitals by our Board Certified Cardiologists. Pacemaker and biventricular devise implantation, AICD implantation, electrophysiology services; tilt tables and ablations are also provided by our practice.
Our practice also provides a wide range of services in Consultative Cardiology and Preventive Cardiology including coronary risk management, cholesterol and hypertension management and treatment, non-invasive cardiac testing and the diagnosis, management and treatment of cardiac rhythm abnormalities. We look forward to serving you and your cardiovascular care needs.


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The Millennium
Bible Teaching About The Approaching Thousand Years
ALL around the world vast and lavish preparations are being made for the start of the new century, and there is even greater interest than usual because, this time, it is also the start of a new millennium-a new era of a thousand years. The opportunity is thus being taken for a variety of events-from private parties to large scale building projects-all of them celebrating a new start.
But after all the excitement has died down, and the balloons have burst, what will the new millennium be like? For a thousand years is not a stage managed event, limited to a few carefully controlled hours or days, but a long, long period of time covering the lifetimes of many generations. Will the year 2000 see the start of a brave new world? Will conditions on the earth suddenly (or even gradually) improve for all who are oppressed, exploited or diseased? We know the answer to these questions. All the grand schemes and great expectations will achieve very little. It needs more than a page turned over on a calendar to put the world right, even if the date on that page is the last day of the old millennium.
2000 or 2001?
The eagerness to celebrate has been shown by how quickly and easily settled have been the rival claims of the years 2000 and 2001 as the start of the new millennium. Mathematically, few can doubt that 2001 is really the first year of the new century, but public opinion will not allow for any delay. The old era is being relegated as soon as possible in the hope that something better is just round the corner.
The past hundred years have seen incredible technological changes. But alongside all the machines which man's ingenuity has produced to help him undertake necessary tasks, there stand equally ingenious machines with an almost infinite capacity for destruction. Even those-like vehicles of transport-invented to assist man's well being and to make his life easier, have been responsible for the deaths of thousands, even millions of people. None of the technological advances has managed to halt the decline in personal relationships and breakdown in society. So the start of a new era is a new horizon, providing renewed hope that such problems can be removed or at least controlled.
Greater Awareness?
But putting aside the unattainable high hopes, there is a genuine belief that the new millennium will bring a greater awareness of mankind's needs, and greater resolve to tackle them. The inner yearning of many people for increased peace of mind has been shown by the renewed interest in religion of all kinds, notably the mystic and psychic varieties. Organized religion has been associated for so long in people's minds with bitter arguments and repression even on occasions with warfare and genocide that there has been a rejection of many of the traditional forms of worship. Instead, there are New Age methods to help prepare for the New Era which is about to dawn.
Some of these new religious groups see the approaching millennium as a time of personal and spiritual release. Leaders have instructed their members to be prepared for a whole variety of cataclysmic events: for armed attack, for fierce burning, for approaching space craft. There is a wide expectation among these groups that the millennium will be a time when the human body is no longer required; they expect it to be discarded, allowing its owner to be completely free from current constraints. A few have even anticipated this by joining in group suicide plots so that they will escape the widespread destruction they expect to occur.
This interest in such things has been generated in part by existing religious associations with the millennium. The event would not be celebrated if it were not for the fact that our calendar, and that of much of the world, is calculated from the date when it is believed Jesus Christ was born. More recent research has shown that this calculation may be about five years out. But give or take those five years, it is almost two thousand years since Jesus was born, and not much less than that since Christianity became a world religion. The teachings of Christ burst upon the world in the early centuries of the modern era, and many pagan practices were quickly relegated in favour of worship patterned on the teachings of the Lord Jesus Christ and his apostles.
To mark the start of the third Christian millennium, great religious celebrations are planned in many centres, notably in Rome where an estimated 30 million pilgrims will have the opportunity to worship in up to 50 new churches, as well as those places of worship which already exist. One of these new churches is to be called "The Church of the Year 2000", specially to mark the significance of the event. The Pope John Paul II has declared the year 2000 "a holy year", hoping that Christians will be "if not united, at least closer to resolving the divisions of the second millennium".
Deep Apprehension
But it would be unreasonable to suggest that, for most people, the celebrations will be religious. The year 2000 may indeed be based on the date when it is calculated that Jesus Christ was born, but the link between Christianity and many of the planned celebrations is extremely tenuous. The hopes for the new era go much farther back than the birth of Christianity, to man's innermost yearnings for a better world.
At the same time as there is a great eagerness for the new millennium to start, there is also an apprehension about the new era because of dire warnings about economic collapse, global warming, over population, depleted natural resources and potential international conflict involving weapons of mass destruction.
Some prophets of doom have predicted that the new millennium will herald Armageddon, by which they mean the catastrophic end of human life on earth. With such differing outlooks being prophesied, it is reasonable to enquire if the new century will bring widespread destruction or the solution to all these difficult problems.
A thousand years ago, at the end of the first Christian millennium, there was great expectation that something momentous would happen. Religious leaders taught about the impending destruction of Antichrist and an era of peace under the rule of Jesus Christ. Despite preparations being made by many people who thought the end of the world was drawing near, nothing happened. Will the same be true of the year 2000? And if it is, how will people cope with the disappointment?
A Reliable Guide
How do we find answers to these questions? Is there a reliable source of information about the future, and especially about the future of mankind upon the earth?
The only reliable guide to the future-a guide which has stood the test of time and whose earlier predictions give confidence about all the other information it contains, is the Bible. It claims to be the Word of God-who inspired human writers to record His message to mankind. What then does the Bible have to say about the millennium?
What we shall soon discover is that any reference to a millennium in the Bible has to do not with the moment at the turn of the century but with an entire period of a thousand years. Actually the word millennium does not appear anywhere in the Bible. But there are a few places where a "thousand years" are mentioned in a general sense, and one place where an era of a `'thousand years" is specifically described. Two of the general references to a thousand years use the phrase to explain how God is different from man, because He is not controlled by time: "A thousand years in God's sight are but as yesterday when it is past, or as a watch in the night" (Psalm 90:4), "With the Lord one day is as a thousand years, and a thousand years as one day" (II Peter 3:8). These verses help to put into context mankind's mad scramble to be ready for the year 2000 AD.
God is able to view all of mankind's history in a moment of time. He can look deep into the past and far into the future He is not 'locked in the cage of time', as man is.
God has been at work for thousands of years with a plan and a purpose. He brought the world into existence at the beginning, and wants it to be a place where men and women can live at peace, with each other and with Him Through the various Bible writers, God has revealed to mankind many of the details of His purpose. His work has continued through successive ages: the generation before the Flood; the times of the patriarchs (Abraham, Isaac and Jacob), the formation of the nation of Israel into a kingdom; the sending of His Son; the Christian era; and finally He promises a great 'day of rest', when all His work will be complete. That this is the purpose of His creative work is shown in the opening chapters of the Bible as they speak of Him resting when His work is complete: "God blessed the seventh day and sanctified it, because in it he rested from all his work which God had created and made" (Genesis 2:3). In this rest, He will be associated with those of His creatures for whom "there remains a sabbath rest ... for whoever enters God's rest also ceases from his labours as God did from His" (Hebrews 4:9,10).
No Benefit from Long Life
Another Bible reference to a thousand years confirms that long periods of time are not sufficient to benefit mankind unless conditions in the world radically change. The wise man in Ecclesiastes notes that, "If a man begets a hundred children, and lives many years, so that the days of his years are many, but he does not enjoy life's good things ... I say that an untimely birth is better off than he ... even though he should live a thousand years twice told" (Ecclesiastes 6:3-6).
But none of these references is to a specific period of a thousand years; the concept of a future millennium did not arise from these passages. Only in the last book of the Bible, the book of Revelation, is such a period mentioned (Revelation 20).
Revelation is a prophetic book, using highly graphic images and symbols to describe what would happen to Jesus' followers after his death, resurrection and ascension, continuing right through to the time when God's purpose is complete. The closing chapters of the book (chapters 19-22) concentrate on events to do with Jesus' return and the setting up of the kingdom of God. Chapter 20 explains about ``the thousand years"—the Millennium.
The Events of the Millennium
Despite the Book of Revelation being written in symbolic language, some aspects of the message are obvious and easily understood:
The "thousand years"—the only specific period of a thousand years mentioned in the Bible-is a period of time when Jesus rules the world. During this "millennium" opposition to his reign will be restrained, allowing the benefits of his leadership to be widely felt, until, in the end, rebellion breaks forth, to be decisively destroyed by direct action from God, leaving Christ to reign supreme on God's behalf.
The Return of Christ
It will be noted that the chapter does not at first sight appear to describe the return of Christ; it speaks instead of "an angel come down from heaven, having the key of the bottomless pit ... in his hand" (Revelation 20:1).
We are reminded of the opening vision in Revelation where "one like unto the Son of Man"—surely a vision of Jesus himself is described as "he that liveth, and was dead and, behold, I am alive for evermore, Amen; and have the keys of hell (Hades, or the grave) and of death" (Revelation 1:18). So who else can this angel be but the Lord Jesus Christ, "the firstborn from the dead" (Revelation 1:5), and therefore the one who is given authority by God over life and death?
The chapter therefore starts with the return of Christ to rule the earth on God's behalf. In this work he is assisted by others who share in rulership: people who remained faithful to God despite persecution. They are to "live and reign with Christ a thousand years" (Revelation 20:4). Because many of these are people from earlier ages who have been in the grave for centuries, they will first be raised from the dead. Those who are welcomed by Jesus to "live and reign" with him will also be granted immortality, never to die again. They are called "saints" through their being separated to work with Jesus. As the Bible says, "Over such the second death has no power, but they shall be priests of God and of Christ, and shall reign with him a thousand years" (Revelation 20:6).
Resurrection is necessary because the Bible does not teach that man has an immortal soul or an unquenchable spark of eternity within him. Death is described in Scripture as the complete cessation of all knowledge and experience: "The dead know nothing, and they have no more reward, for the memory of them is forgotten. Also their love, their hatred, and their envy have now perished; nevermore will they have a share in anything done under the sun" (Ecclesiastes 9:5,6) NKJV. (For more information on the true state of death' and what follows, please see the companion booklet, After Death-What?)
Having discovered that the thousand years mentioned in the Bible cannot start until Jesus Christ returns to earth, we now know some more details of what will occur:
1. Jesus will return to the earth, as promised by angels at the time of his ascension into heaven (see Acts 1:11).
2. He will raise from the dead all who have known about him. "This is the first resurrection" (Revelation 20:5).
3. Those who are judged to be faithful (including those who have died and those who are alive when he returns — (I Thessalonians 4:15-17)) will join Jesus in ruling over the earth on God's behalf (Revelation 5:10).
Signs of His Return
The return of Jesus to the earth is thus the first event of the thousand years. How shall we know when he is expected? And what connection is there, if any, between the year 2000 and the millennium promised in the Bible? Once again, Jesus' own words are our guide. Shortly before his crucifixion, his disciples asked him how people would know when he was to return to the earth. (He had already taught his disciples about his death, resurrection and ascension.) "What sign will there be when these things are about to take place?", they asked.
If his return was going to be preceded by widespread peaceful conditions, here was an opportunity to inform his disciples so that they could be prepared. But he did not speak about peace. He actually warned his disciples, "Watch out that you are not deceived", knowing that there would be contradictory reports circulating, even amongst believers, about the conditions which will signal his return.
But his words are clear: "On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. Men will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory" (Luke 21:25-27).
This is not a description of peaceful conditions, but the exact opposite. It could well be a description of our own times. Men and women today are "apprehensive of what is coming on the world". As we have already considered, that is one reason why so many people are looking forward to 2000 AD. They hope it will provide the New Start the earth so desperately needs.
If Jesus says that his coming will be preceded by wars, fighting and widespread despair' and not by peaceful conditions, we can prepare ourselves as we see these conditions developing.
No More Deception
As we have already seen, one of the first things we are told about the Biblical "thousand years" is that it will be a time when nations are no longer deceived (Revelation 20:3). It will be a time when issues can be clearly seen; important matters will no longer be hidden or covered up, as so often happens today. Because Jesus Christ will be in charge of affairs, as God's king, his judgment will be just and open: "He shall not judge by what his eyes see, or decide by what his ears hear" (Isaiah 11:3). What human judge has ever been able to see into men's hearts or read their thoughts? With this ability widely exercised, there will be no place for those who have sought personal benefit from manipulating information. This is what the Bible means when it says that "the nations will no longer be deceived".
The Devil and Satan
Those who have been involved in this world-wide deception are termed in Revelation, "the dragon, that old serpent, which is the Devil, and Satan" (Revelation 20:2). For many people, this language describes an indestructible evil personality, constantly at war with mankind, and seeking to tempt and draw him away from serving God. But we should note how Revelation describes the final destiny of "the dragon":
"The devil that deceived them was cast into the lake of fire and brimstone' where the beast and the false prophet are, and shall be tormented day and night for ever and ever." (Revelation 20:10)
This is similar to the language Jesus used when he was speaking to his disciples about the kingdom of God, and who would enter it. Those who would forfeit their place in the kingdom through denying all that he taught, would be "cast into hell; where their worm dieth not, and the fire is not quenched" (Mark 9:47,48). In the Bible, "hell" means simply the grave, so Jesus was speaking of complete destruction, with no hope of return, and not about everlasting fiery torments (see our companion booklet on Heaven and Hell ). The Biblical Devil is not an indestructible evil personality, but a symbol of sin and rebellion in the hearts of men (see the booklet, Do You Believe in a Devil?).
But before evil and wickedness are destroyed by being "cast into the lake of fire and brimstone" (which is to happen at the end of the thousand years), they are bound by the Lord Jesus Christ. As we have seen, in the face of honesty, truth and perfect knowledge, there will be no place for cheating, fraud or duplicity. One of Jesus' titles is "the Word of God" (Revelation 19:13), and a great work of the thousand years will be the application of God's Word as a guide in all aspects of human government and personal life.
Jesus' Servants, the Saints
Jesus will be assisted in this work, as we have seen, by the "saints". It will be a time of rejoicing for them as the Word of God is taught throughout the world: "Let the saints be joyful in glory: let them sing aloud upon their beds. Let the high praises of God be in their mouth, and a two-edged sword in their hand, to execute vengeance upon the heathen, and punishments upon the people; to bind their kings with chains, and their nobles with fetters of iron, to execute upon them the written judgment-this honour have all his saints" (Psalm 149:5-9).
The work of the saints under the direction of the Lord Jesus will be primarily to instruct the mortal population of the earth in the wonders of God's laws. They will be teachers, leaders and rulers on Christ's behalf. In one of his parables about the kingdom of God, Jesus spoke of a "certain nobleman" going into a far country to receive a kingdom, and then returning. The nobleman-representing Christ himself, of course-left his servants to work for him while he was away. On his return, he rewarded his faithful servants by giving them authority in his kingdom: "Because you have been faithful in a very little, you shall have authority over ten cities" (Luke 19:17).
Through delegating this work to the saints, Jesus' rule will be felt throughout the earth. This is the way it is described by the Old Testament prophet Isaiah:
"Out of Zion shall go forth the law, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem. He shall judge among the nations, and rebuke many people: they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore." (Isaiah 2:3,4)
The only way for nations to be truly at peace is if they accept common principles. God's law is designed to ensure peaceful and beneficial cooperation between peoples. There will be no place for the deceiver, or for anyone who wants to benefit from other people's hardships.
Conditions of Peace
Gradually, under the rule of God's law, conditions will improve for everyone, but especially for those who previously have been oppressed or under-privileged in any way. Listen to what the Psalmist says about this time:
"He (the King-Jesus) will bring justice to the poor of the people; he will save the children of the needy, and will break in pieces the oppressor. He shall come down like rain upon the grass before mowing, like showers that water the earth. In his days the righteous shall flourish, and abundance of peace, until the moon is no more. He shall have dominion also from sea to sea ... His enemies will lick the dust ... all kings shall fall down before him, all nations shall serve him. For he will deliver the needy when he cries, the poor also, and him who has no helper. He will spare the poor and needy, and will save the souls of the needy. He will redeem their life from oppression and violence ..." (Psalm 72)
The earth will at last begin to fulfil the promise of God's design in creation. Problems of famine and disease will diminish, for "The wilderness and the wasteland shall be glad for them, and the desert shall rejoice and blossom as the rose ... Then shall the lame man leap as an hart, and the tongue of the dumb sing: for in the wilderness shall waters break out, and streams in the desert" (Isaiah 35:1,6)
With food supplies improved for all, with many causes of stress removed, and with the great Healer in the earth, men and women will live longer: "No more shall an infant from there live but a few days, nor an old man who has not fulfilled his days, for the child shall die one hundred years old" (Isaiah 65:20).
"The child shall die ..."? Yes, there will still be death during the thousand years. Jesus and the saints will be immortal, but the rest of the earth's population will be mortal, dying creatures, even though their life expectancy will dramatically increase. The information given in the Bible about the thousand years describes a wonderful era of peace, safety, contentment and health when Jesus is King. But it is still not a time of complete perfection. Death, and therefore sin too, will still exist.
Drawn to Worship God
But the thousand years will give opportunity for the benefits of Christ's rulership to be widely experienced. Many will rejoice in these lovely conditions, and will desire to worship God: "Many people shall come and say, 'Come, and let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, to the house of the God of Jacob, He will teach us His ways, and we shall walk in His paths"' (Isaiah 2:3). A place of worship-a "house of prayer for all nations"—will be established in Jerusalem, the "city of the great King" (Psalm 48:2; Matthew 5:35), the centre of Kingdom rule.
To this wonderful temple will come people from all parts of the world. Nations will be positively encouraged to travel there regularly. If they do not choose to worship God, He will withhold His blessings: "If any of the families of the earth do not go up to Jerusalem to worship the King, the LORD of hosts, there will be no rain upon them" (Zechariah 14:17). The advantage of following God's ways will soon be apparent, and many of the earth's population will be pleased to accept His laws.
Jerusalem and the Jews
But why is Jerusalem so honoured by being the centre of kingdom government and education? For long centuries the city has been the centre, not of peaceful worship, but of strife. Over two and a half thousand years ago, God revealed to Moses that when His people were at rest from their enemies, "Then there shall be a place which the LORD your God shall choose to cause his name to dwell there" (Deuteronomy 12:11). Later the Psalmist spoke of this place being Jerusalem, "the city of the great King" (Psalm 48:2).
Part of Jesus' work when he returns will be to restore God's witnesses, the Jews, for he is their King-as the notice over his cross explained: "This is Jesus, the King of the Jews" (Matthew 27:37). On his return, some in the Jewish nation will respond positively. God said through the prophet Zechariah: "I will pour out on the house of David and the inhabitants of Jerusalem a spirit of compassion and supplication, so that, when they look on him whom they have pierced, they shall mourn for him, as one mourns for an only child, and weep bitterly over him, as one weeps over a first-born" (Zechariah 12:10).
The acceptance by Jesus of his repentant countrymen, the Jews, and their acceptance of him as their King, will fulfil the purpose of God with the nation of Israel. From the time of their forefather Abraham, God has promised faithful Jews a central part in His kingdom. The continued existence of the nation has been a standing witness to God's deep concern for mankind. Under the rulership of Christ mortal Israelites will have opportunity to continue that witness to the grace of God, who has extended forgiveness and hope of redemption, even to the nation who first rejected His Son and spurned His offer of salvation. Together with the mortal inhabitants of other nations, Jews will have the opportunity to benefit from the conditions of the kingdom age, and to offer service to the Lord Jesus Christ and honour to Almighty God.
However, not everyone will be pleased with the new arrangements. This is difficult to understand in view of the prosperity and peace which will be experienced by so many; but just as Jesus was rejected when he first preached the gospel of the kingdom, so there will be some who will say in their hearts, 'We don't want this man to rule over us'.
At the end of the thousand years, opportunity will be given for these thoughts to have full expression. The symbolic language of Revelation puts it like this: "When the thousand years have expired, Satan will be released from his prison and will go out to deceive the nations" (Revelation 20:7). As the previous era of deceit was ended when Jesus and the saints began widely to spread the Word of God and His Law, it will only re-commence if the teaching of God's Word is once more suspended. It appears that at the end of the thousand years Jesus and the saints will retreat from all parts of the world into the city of Jerusalem (Revelation 20:9). Their absence from government will allow rebels once more to deceive the nations and "gather them together to battle" (Revelation 20:8).
Final Destruction
The armies of those who choose to fight against Jesus and the saints will approach Jerusalem, where they will be decisively destroyed: "They went up on the breadth of the earth and surrounded the camp of the saints and the beloved city. And fire came down from God out of heaven and devoured them" (Revelation 20:9).
This final destruction of all opposition will lead to a second resurrection and judgement of all who have lived during the thousand years: "I saw the dead, small and great standing before God, and books were opened. And another book was opened, which is the Book of Life. And the dead were judged according to their works ... anyone not found written in the Book of Life was cast into the lake of fire" (Revelation 20:12-15).
It will be impossible for anyone to claim that they have been treated badly or unfairly. Ample opportunity will be given during the thousand years to understand God's ways and to see the benefit of their widespread application. Those who reject His law will also be fully aware of the consequences of their rejection.
Only when the final rebellion has been stilled, and after the second resurrection and judgement have taken place, can the last action of the thousand years be accomplished: "Death and hell were cast into the lake of fire" and destroyed. "There shall be no more death, nor sorrow, nor crying. There shall be no more pain, for the former things have passed away" (Revelation 21:4). All the world's troubles will be ended-there will be no more crying, and real and lasting peace will extend throughout the earth.
It is not only the book of Revelation which reveals this sequence of events. In his letter to believers living in Corinth, the Apostle Paul writes about the resurrection from the dead, starting with the resurrection of Jesus almost 2,000 years ago: "Christ the firstfruits, afterward those who are Christ's at his coming. Then comes the end when he delivers the kingdom to God the Father, when he puts an end to all rule and all authority and power. For he must reign till he has put all enemies under his feet. The last enemy that will be destroyed is death" (I Corinthians 15:23-26).
Filled with God's Glory
In this passage, the thousand years are described in harmony with what we have already discovered. It is a time when Jesus will rule, when he will bring to an end all rebellion against God's laws, destroying all enemies, and lastly bring to an end even death itself. The result will be an earth at peace, fulfilling its potential to bring glory and honto Almighty God. The Word of God will once again be upheld, and there will be no more rebellion,
"For the earth will be filled with the knowledge of the glory of the LORD, as the waters cover the sea." (Habakkuk 2:14)
This describes a kingdom not limited by time, just as God Himself is not subject to such constraints. There will then be an eternal kingdom, as Paul goes on to describe: "Now when all things are made subject to him (Christ), then the Son himself will also be subject to Him who put all things under him, that God may be all in all" (I Corinthians 15:28).
"All in all" is an awe-inspiring description of complete and perfect unity between God and His faithful creatures who have been reconciled by the work of the Lord Jesus Christ.
"When will these things be?"
One last question remains to be answered. It is the question Jesus' disciples asked him:
"When will these things be?" (Matthew 24:3; Luke 21:7).
To answer this, we need to return to the question of the connection between the celebration of the year 2000 and Christ's millennial reign. Will the year 2000 (or 2001 ?) see the start of the thousand years mentioned in the Bible? Will all the present Millennium plans be fulfilled in the return of Jesus to the earth?
The Bible answer is that we do not know exactly when Jesus will return: "Of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, but my Father only" (Matthew 24:36). But the conditions which will exist immediately prior to his coming are known: wars, famines, disease and great distress, men and women "apprehensive of what is coming on the world". To be ready for his coming means being on constant alert. This was Jesus' message to his disciples:
"If the master of the house had known what hour the thief would come, he would have watched and not allowed his house to be broken into. Therefore you also be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an hour you do not expect." (Matthew 24:43,44)
To be ready for Jesus' coming means that we must try to live now in accordance with God's Word, and to seek His Kingdom and glory. Those who will be with Jesus in his glory will be the ones whose names are found written in the Book of Life.
Will your name be there?


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Adrian Twp. Board ponders public safety, road millages
At their meeting Monday, members of the Adrian Township Board of Trustees discussed the possibility of a new millage to pay for public safety equipment such as fire trucks, ambulances and police cars.
The board also talked about the possibility of a road millage.
A five-year capital equipment plan submitted by township fire chief Tim Bartenslager estimated that the fire department will need $814,600 for equipment in the next five years.
The plan includes a new fire engine estimated at $380,000 and a new ambulance estimated at $150,000.
"We have to figure out a way to start paying for some of this stuff," township supervisor Jim Koehn said.
The township currently has a 0.94-mill public safety tax that helps pay for police and fire operations and equipment. The township subsidizes that revenue with money from its general fund, which is supported by a 0.81-mill tax.
The township gets about $200,000 a year for each mill of tax, Koehn said.
The township does not have a dedicated road millage. A road millage would be needed if the township is going to improve its subdivision roads, Koehn said.
Koehn said he would talk with Bartenslager and with the township's public safety committee about what level of public safety equipment millage would be necessary and how long any such millage should last.
When he meets with Lenawee County Road Commission staff Jan. 22, he will ask for their recommendations regarding the township's road improvement needs, Koehn said.
He also will look into the difference in the total number of voters in primary versus general elections to help board members decide when would be the best time to put any possible millage requests on the ballot, Koehn said.
He will bring his findings to the board at its next meeting, Koehn said.
If a millage were to be approved during this year's August primary election, it could be levied with the December tax bill, Koehn said.


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Nicolae Ceausescu lived in denial. In the first scene of Andrei Ujica's The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu (2010), which is almost the last scene of his life, Ceausescu, in the makeshift TV trial that the revolutionaries have organized, denies that he had anything to do with the atrocities of the previous day. Given sufficient time, he might have denied that he had anything to do with Romania's dilapidating condition at all. The prosecutors did not give him that privilege. Ujica does. Apparently the result of research on hundreds of hours of historical footage, Autobiography assembles three hours of newsreels that Ceausescu had, indirectly, made for himself, carefully putting together a nationwide mise en scène and a troupe as large as Romania's population. Ujica's is a film that resides on the edges of the frame, one that works only on hindsight, with knowledge of what really transpired. We mostly see Ceausescu waving hands and applauding amidst the countless Fordist parades in which people are reduced to flag-waving anonymities. He's not particularly unlikable. In fact, he seems quite amicable. One could mistake him for a token detective from an American noir or a French film director of the 60s. Contradictory alliances are formed (Both Nixon and Mao seem to have had good relationship with Romania). In fact, Ceausescu seems to have been friends with every major leader. But Ceausescu's downfall, in which the last hour of the film is interested in, is also, for better or worse, saddening. His words and gestures become more rhetorical than passionate Like Carlos, here is a man who is stuck in a time capsule adhering to his beliefs and illusions when the world has moved beyond him. Nicolae Ceausescu lived in denial.
The first thing that strikes us when watching Autobiography is that it does not insert alternate footage to counterpoint those that we see. (The only external contrasting force comes from our current knowledge of Romania during that period). Neither does Ujica employ shot footage nor does he use other Romanian films of the period to fill in the gaps. (This may be because, as it was the case in Stalinist Russia, the alternates to propaganda cinema were probably only apolitical melodramas or socialist realism). Unlike filmmakers such as Anand Patwardhan and Alanis Obomsawin, Ujica seems to place trust on the propaganda clips themselves to illustrate the interstices between them. He uses clips that Ceausescu himself would have used had he written a film autobiography. For instance, the famed footage of Ceausescu's final speech and his consequent bewilderment and that of him and Elena fleeing in a helicopter are cleverly omitted. The film cuts from Ceausescu's trial to the past as if going into a flashback. This shift could either imply Ceausescu trying to vindicate himself using the autobiography that is to follow or Ujica/the prosecutors trying to incriminate him using the same evidence. The film is both an encomium and a critique. It's Rashomon situation on a national scale. Taking a deconstructive approach wherein he lets the contradictions in the footage surface by themselves and using custom soundtrack to multiply the pomp or, less often, provide irony, Ujica elucidates how the Ceausescu regime was marked by suppression of histories and silencing of oppositions.
After I watched Ujica's picture, I wondered how it would have turned out if Ceausescu had indeed made his autobiography using the footage he had amassed. Of course, Ceausescu didn't make such a film but, I guess any such self-serving propaganda made under a dictatorial regime should share traits alluded to by Ujica's film. I couldn't get my hands on any such Romanian film, but I did see a North Korean propaganda film made for (by?) Ceausescu's friend and contemporary, Kim Il Sung, modestly titled President Kim Il Sung Met Foreign Heads of State and Prominent Figures April 1970-December 1975 (1976) which recites by rote the various meetings that the premier held during the aforementioned period. In fact, the title becomes amazingly self-parodying once you see the movie, whose script consists of the following line, with minor variations, repeated a hundred times: "On [Insert Date], President Kim Il Sung met [Insert Name], the [Insert designation] of [Insert name of communist country], in a brotherly environment to express his support for [the people's struggle against imperialism/strengthening bilateral relationship]. [Name] praised General Kim Il Sung for [his noble virtue and leadership/his immense contributions to anti-imperialist struggle worldwide/his exploits in progressing mankind]".
The film is never blatant as Ujica's pseudo-autobiography might suggest, with even remotely problematic areas being cleanly pruned out, (The closest the film (unintentionally) gets to the truth is when the narrator points out that Kim Il Sung "brought about a spectacular reality in Korea"). However, one can still trace, with considerable effort, the counterpoints are seething underneath the rosy audiovisuals. Thousands of dressed-up people gathered for pomp, hundreds "being rounded up" to welcome the premier and the omnipresent absence of the individual are all dehumanizing in a way. The president praises his Japanese counterparts to no end while he talks elsewhere about Korea and China's joint efforts to ward of Japanese imperialism during the war. In the meeting footages, Kim Il Sung is generally the centre of attraction in the frame – a fact understandable given his imposing physique. His counterparts are regularly pushed to the edges and appear nimble in relation to the composed stature of Il Sung. The president is always cheerful, applauding, waving, at ease and possesses a singular command of his space. One could mistake him for a veteran stage actor. The message here is clear: The world looks up to Kim Il Sung and the way he rules your country. This is the best you'll get. Looking at the two films, it is clear how Ceausescu was influenced by the North Korean cinema (probably more than its policies), which, in turn, has echoes of Riefenstahl. They seem to have been directors more than dictators.
Ujica's film is called The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu, but it also holds well as a biography of Romania because not only does it cover a huge ground in terms of historical time, it also seems to allude to attitudes that would define Romanian culture even after his deposition. The figure of Nicolae Ceausescu seems to loom large over contemporary Romanian cinema. Almost all the "New Wave" films from the country have had Ceausescu or his regime at their focal point. Films such as Tales from the Golden Age (2009), which no doubt treat history as a closed project, confront the past directly and provide a neat picture of what it is to live in a communist-dictatorial state (The "hat" and "pig" segments are simultaneously moving and hysterical) while even a work that is so hermetic and microcosmic on the surface like Radu Muntean's Tuesday, After Christmas (2010), set during the 20th anniversary of Ceausescu's execution, is haunted by the events of the past. Underneath, Muntean's film seems to triangulate between a disillusionment with the present (post-globalization Romania), a nostalgia for the past (possibly the socialist age) and the dread produced by the knowledge that nostalgia, more often than not, is the longing for a past that never was. Both features of Corneliu Porumboiu deal with residual theatricality that marks contemporary Romania. In the first film, the revolution against theatricality itself makes way for theatrical claims to glory and pride while, in the second, the capital attempts to project itself as a city that is more significant than it actually is. In fact, this seemingly quintessentially Romanian affinity for theatricality is part of the curriculum in Ujica's debut feature, Videograms of a Revolution (1992), which he co-directed with Harun Farocki.
Videograms, possibly Ujica's finest film and clearly a masterwork, presents us shards from the Romanian revolution in the form of small "video packets" that were shot at various locations in Bucharest during the days just preceding Ceausescu's death. We get to see history as it is happening, in all its tragicomic elements, with multiple parallel governments being set up, phantom enemies generated, impromptu civil wars brewing and the relentless efforts undertaken by either side to restore peace. Unlike any other period in history, possibly with the exception of the clashes in Chile two decades ago that were "immortalized" by Patricio Guzman in his fly-on-the-wall documentaries, we witness how technological progress has enabled us to document history with utmost fluidity and urgency. There is no need for an Eisenstein anymore to recreate the revolution and overwrite the actual event. This relationship between technological progress, the subsequent changes in modes of production and the possibility of social progress is of central interest to Videograms. It tries to find an answer to whether revolution is primarily the seizure of the forces of production from authority or if there are certain fundamental, subtler issues to be tackled.
Interestingly enough, the first thing that the protestors do after storming the party headquarters is to attack the television station. As the revolutionary forces take over the broadcast, we see not only their efforts to disperse the message to the public but also the theatricality that eventually overwhelms their exploits. Appropriation of the television station is taken for the appropriation of political power. Prisoners (generally party members close to the dictator) are presented on TV, subjected to mockery-of-justice type vengeance trials and sentenced by impromptu courts and law makers, The abuse of (TV) power that was to be corrected persists, only under a different political scenario and for a different end. We see this abuse of power off screen as well, where the acrimony towards Ceausescu is misguided towards prisoners. Videograms, however, remains highly ambivalent about the role of television and cinema in the phenomenon. Its view is more rounded and holistic than the critical or exalting stances one might expect. The camera, in Videograms, is as much imprisoning as it's liberating.
Routinely, at the end of each of the separately titled segment, the narrator of the film startlingly steps back from the immediacy of the upheaval, to perform a formal analysis of the images we see in order to illustrate that the film is more about the revolution as it was perceived than as it happened. Throughout, it probes how the televising of a real event can guarantee its occurrence and authenticate a fictional event. We see European reporters filming the broadcast of Ceausescu's trial (in place of the trial itself) as if television itself is a transparent window into reality. (This recalls Paul Patton's account of how CNN reporters in the Gulf during the war were watching CNN in order to find out what was happening). Like great works such as Godard's History of Cinema (1998) and Marker's The Last Bolshevik (1993), but far less elegiac and more optimistic, Farocki and Ujica examine film, history and everything in between in Videograms. They note:
"Camera and event. Since its invention, film has seemed destined to make history visible. It has been able to portray the past and stage the present. We have seen Napoleon on horseback and Lenin on the train. Film was possible because there was history. Almost imperceptibly, like moving on a Möbius strip, the side was flipped. We look on and have to think: if film is possible, then history, too, is possible."
Perhaps this is the biggest irony that marks Ceausescu's life. The tool that helped him hold power for decades became the very tool that accelerated his downfall. The pageants that highlighted his reign would give way to his own trial on the national television. And all the clapping at the end of those grand ceremonies would only end up in the cheerful applause throughout Bucharest when his death is broadcasted on television. After images of the corpses of the Ceausescus are flashed on television for the confirmation of the event, one reporter yells as the screen fades to black: "That's it then, turn it off".
Ujica's previous film, Out of the Present (1995), also involves a man cut off from the world, literally. Evocative, slightly frightening and borderline-experimental, Out of the Present chronicles Soviet cosmonaut Sergei Krikalev's 10-month stay at the Mir station during which time his country collapses. Ujica intercuts between the tumults in Moscow and scenes of Krikalev's floating about in free space to sketch the portrait of a world in transition. He's a man who, in the process of leaping into the future, loses grip on the present. For Krikalev, like the citizens of Bucharest in the previous film, reality is what the media tells him it is. In addition to his physical severance, he is, like so many of his counterparts on earth, a man alienated from history through the very images that present history. But Krikalev's case is even more heartbreaking given that fact that he is the only person from his country to have not witnessed this historical juncture and that he'll be returning to a country totally different from the one he lived in. This idea of media as the appraiser of history and the diaristic construction of Out of the Present presage the autobiographical structure of Ujica's latest.
Coming back to The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu, which attempts to sum up the entirety of Ceausescu's regime as a large-scale theater with Romania as the stage, the Romanians as the performers and the Ceausescus as the stars. Ujica's film suggests that in Ceausescu's rule, cinema was treated like politics and politics, like cinema, that he was amassing wealth to no end while the whole country was in dire straits and that all was illusion. Although there might be some truth value to it, It seems to me that such a sketch is rather dangerous and complacent since it runs the risk of reducing a ruthless dictator to a charlatan who knew how to make the right moves. Ujica deals with Ceausescu more or less like how Assayas deals with Carlos. Both these political figures have been drained of their potency by their writer-directors and turned into interesting characters with simple psychology and behavioral pattern. There is little reason to believe that all the pomp and self-aggrandizement would have vanished had Ceausescu been a democratic ruler. The cult of the leader is largely independent of such scenarios. Given that Ujica intended to make a film critical of Ceausescu that would have resulted even if the latter had made it himself, it is understandable that he was obliged to leave out certain implicating footage. But this self-imposed restriction becomes a damaging limitation in Autobiography. Ujica's message is clear even minutes into the film. In trying to develop a pseudo-laudatory autobiography and a stinging critique out of the same material, Ujica, I'm afraid, only dilutes the latter.
Compare this with the density that the remarkable BBC documentary The King of Communism: The Pomp & Pageantry of Nicolae Ceausescu (2002) achieves despite its flaws and its reduced running time. Like Ujica, writer-director Ben Lewis believes that Ceausescu's regime was fuelled by such grand scale performances. But instead of relying on these very performances to elucidate the flipside, Lewis keeps interjecting anti-narratives of every sort that keep countering reductive narratives such as Ujica's and Assayas'. One of those interviewed is a TV reporter who was filming Ceausescu during his infamous final speech. When asked why he did not telecast the agitation in front of the palace instead of the unrest at Ceausescu's balcony, he tells us that it would have been against the ethics of his profession. It is not that he is deluded or against democracy. It is just that such an act would never have been unethical considering his situation. Lewis' film is rife with such deadlocks that tend to disrupt totalizing narratives such as the one The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu presents. For instance, it probes why ever did the Romanian public cooperate in this mythmaking. After all, it was this nationalistic propaganda that enabled Ceausescu to resist the imperialism of the superpowers and to build a stable nation. Some of the interviewees still assert that Ceausescu represented their country with dignity at the world stage, although it was precisely this misplaced sense of self-respect that turned against both Ceausescu and Romania.
Through interviews with people who had really taken part and performed in these pageants, Lewis arrives at the conclusion that it was all propaganda by the public and for the public, and not a one man show as purported by Ujica's film. We come to know that people actually looked forward to these shows that helped them regain their trust towards the nation. They're even nostalgic about it. Lewis points out that the performer-audience relationship was reversed at the end of each show and illustrates how it was of double advantage for Ceausescu. For him, it was both an august propaganda and an effective distraction. For the public, it was both escape and replenishment. Through these accounts, we gradually get the idea that Romania was not being cheated some clever, omnipotent trickster, but that it was in a hyperreal situation where the truth of the matter was overridden by 'appearances' that didn't appear so. One perceptive lady tells us that it might have been better if the Soviet had indeed occupied Romania instead of Ceausescu holding ground. At least then, she points out, the Romanians would have had a visible enemy to fight against. Ujica's film rejects such nuances, instead replacing them with a blanket rejection of Ceausescu's regime as totalitarian and deceiving. What it does (and admirably so), however, is to question the way we approach historical material (and, consequently, contemporary material). It urges us to look closer, to keep our eyes open for obscured faces and our ears open for silenced voices.
[The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu (2010) Trailer]


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This day and age, it is so easy to snap photos on our phones and then wonder what to do with them. Post on social media?
I wonder if we ever go back to them again? Many tend to live for the moment.
In the old days (showing my age!) we would think twice, no thrice, before pressing the shutter. A roll of film did not come by cheap. After the roll was completely snapped up, one had to get the photos developed. I remember the days when we could send the roll off and get the prints a few weeks later. At that time, that facility seemed like a major step forward!
Then came digital cameras, and smart phones… and even better cameras. So yes, I wonder how much memory goes with each series of photos taken, seeing that it is so very easy to snap a moment.
Unlike this. I came across this photo recently. I can tell you the exact moment I snapped it – the occasion and location – and the story that goes behind the photo.
And the story doesnt stop with just the moment the photo was taken… There is a story after this story as well… but both would be for the next post…
Stay tuned….
Tags: Events, Friends, Holiday, Then & Now, Travel


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Buying a home may be the most exciting, confusing and stressful financial transaction you ever undertake. The following checklist will help you understand and gather the information needed to apply for a mortgage loan with Pinnacle Mortgage.
Personal Information:
Your name, co-borrower's name(s) and any name(s) under which you have previously applied for or received credit
Social security numbers of you, your spouse or other co-borrowers
Marital status
Number and age of dependents
Current address and telephone number. If you have lived at your current address less than 2 years, be prepared to furnish former addresses for up to 2 years
A detail of your current housing expenses, including rent or mortgage payments, real estate taxes and insurance (your mortgage payment may include tax and insurance escrow)
Employment History and Sources of Income:
2 years employment history with employer's name and address, your job title or position, length of time on the job, salary, bonuses, commissions and overtime
Recent paycheck stubs and Federal W-2 forms for 2 years (a full Federal tax return may be required if your are self-employed or have other sources of income)
Social security and disability payments: provide a copy of the award letter, or a copy of the bank statement for proof of electronic deposit, or a recent check stub
Rental property income; provide a copy of lease agreement(s)
Alimony and child support*, you must provide adequate proof of the source: canceled checks, divorce decrees
* Note: Alimony and Child Support need not be disclosed unless it will be used to repay the obligation.
Personal Assets:
Checking, savings, or money market accounts which will be used to complete this transaction, with the name and address of the institution, name(s) on the accounts, account numbers and current account balances
Statements for the last two months on all listed accounts
Current market value of stocks, bonds, CDs and other investments
Vested interest in all retirement accounts
Address and market value of all real estate
Personal Indebtedness:
If you have been through bankruptcy or foreclosure proceedings within the past seven years, be prepared to give full details and copies of applicable documents
Explain the details of obligations to pay alimony, child support or separate maintenance
Details of Purchase Contract and the Property:
A complete copy of the sales contract, including any addenda, signed by all parties, showing the full names of the sellers and buyers as they will appear on the new deed, the amount of earnest money deposit and who is responsible for closing costs, origination fees, etc.
Name, address and telephone number of the real estate agent and/or the seller of the property who will assist the appraiser in obtaining access to the property
Name, address and telephone number for your attorney or settlement agent
Pinnacle Mortgage Inc
Ph: 973-887-6100Fax: 383 Ridgedale Avenue, East Hanover, NJ 07936Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance


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I know why I got celiac disease. Do you?
We all have our special origin stories when it comes to why we are the way we are. Humans love to reach back through the strands of our past and attempt to reweave them retrospectively into a narrative we can understand. "X happened, and Y happened, and Z happened" isn't an appealing way to view our life story: it's disorganized and random. "X happened, and therefore Y happened, and it all came to a head with Z" is neater and much more satisfying.
So, I know why I have celiac—or, at least, I like to believe I do. I've taken all my precious, faulty memories and molded them into a story that makes sense.
My Theory
It's simple enough: I was born with the celiac gene and lived happily in my glutenous environment, eating whatever I darn well pleased, without so much as a twinge from my cast-iron stomach. Then, I lost sixty pounds in a year, messing with my gut bacteria in ways not even scientists understand. Immediately after I stopped losing and started maintaining, I got sick. Eventually, I learned it was celiac.
To me, the timing is too coincidental to be coincidence. Thus, with no hard evidence whatsoever, I'm convinced: I wreaked havoc on my body's bacteria, then I gave them some gluten and ruined everything—all in pursuit of thinness. (How many pounds my body has reacquired in revenge is not an important part of the story.)
"But Molly," you may protest, "I'm a naturally svelte god/goddess who has never actively tried to lose a pound in my life, yet I too have celiac disease. How can this be?"
If that's so, then after mumbling something less polite, I would thank you for the insightful question, because it leads nicely into the second half of my post.
The Pie Theory
One of the best parts of the recent Columbia conference was Dr. Benjamin Lebwohl's discussion of causal pies. This is a yummier name for a fundamental principle of epidemiology known as "the sufficient-cause model." According to it, multiple risk factors for a disease come together in one person, like pieces of a pie. Once the sufficient factors (or ingredients) are there, the person gets the disease.
However, more than one set of ingredients can be combined to make a pie (as any gluten-free baker who has ever had to choose between all-purpose blends knows all too well). Similarly, most diseases have more than one sufficient cause; there's more than one way to develop them.
For celiac disease to develop, two pieces of the pie must be there: genes (HLA DQ2 or DQ8), and gluten. But by themselves, they're insufficient cause; almost a third of the US population has the gene and eats gluten, but most of them don't have celiac. (There could be other universally necessary causes, but no one's found them yet.) The rest of the pie needs to be filled in, perhaps completely differently for you and for me, with other causes.
The other pieces might include:
- early OR late gluten introduction by parents (which I have complained about before)
- spring or summer birthday (because you probably started eating gluten in the winter, when infections were going around)
- microbiotic dysbiosis (messed-up gut bacteria)
- antibiotic usage (possibly insofar as it contributes to the above)
- GMOs (but I doubt it. As Dr. Alessio Fasano pointed out, "There are no GMOs in Europe, but we still have celiac disease!")
- leaky gut (which Dr. Fasano talks up in his new book, Gluten Freedom)
- headache medication (possibly because it makes your gut leak; the aspirin-based ones I regularly overused in high school before discovering caffeine are not included here)
- other autoimmune diseases (though they may in fact be consequences of the same factors as celiac—pies rather than pieces)
- excessive hygiene (which I've joked about before)
- and so on.
Why all the theories?
It's important to determine causes of celiac disease not only because humans hunger for coherent life stories, but also because discovering causes could help us prevent, treat, or even cure future cases. This is particularly crucial because celiac disease is increasing in prevalence.
Plus, differently constructed pies may require different treatments. The baking metaphor breaks down a bit here, but we know that some people take longer to heal than others, and that some people must adopt additional measures beyond the gluten-free diet to get well, while others get cross-contaminated regularly with no consequences. Maybe that's because their identical disease has different causes.
Dr. Lebwohl did not make any jokes about a) the gluten content of causal pies, or b) celiac disease being "easy as pie" to develop, so please consider those bad jokes my contribution to the scientific conversation.
Now, it's your turn to contribute: Why do you think you got celiac disease, or another GRD? Do you have a pet theory about why they are increasing in prevalence?
This is the latest installment in my Sprue/False series of simple but difficult-to-answer questions about celiac disease. (See also Is a Gluten-Free Diet Good Enough? and More on Drugs.) By the way, although "Why do we get other gluten-related disorders?" is a great question too, I focused on celiac because, unfortunately, we're even farther from answers when it comes to other GRDs.


text:
Story by
Ken Yeung
Ken Yeung is a reporter for The Next Web based in San Francisco, CA. He carries around a big camera & likes to write about tech, startup Ken Yeung is a reporter for The Next Web based in San Francisco, CA. He carries around a big camera & likes to write about tech, startups, parties, and interesting people. Follow him on Twitter, on Facebook, and Google+.
Facebook announced today that it's bringing video to Instagram. The service is available starting today for both iOS and Android. Users can record up to 15 seconds of video and the app has 13 special filters created just for video.
Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom took to the stage to talk about the app's next evolution, announcing that it now has more than 130 million monthly active users. He says that when Facebook acquired it, they needed to do a bit of work to define it. He says that core-imagery is everything and that it drives Instagram and is in its core DNA.
Updated stats
Systrom shared some updated stats about the app:
- 16 billion photos shared on Instagram
- 1 billion likes every day
- 130 million people use Instagram every month
He said that Instagram is a tool to remember and that will capture moments forever — the value is that people will look back at the moments and remember them forever. Systrom also said that images transcend language and boundaries and help move the world forward in a significant way while also being inspired to overcome the boundaries we thought existed.
Where is Instagram going?
Systrom reminisced about his days at Burbn and says that when Instagram was created, it left video behind. Why? Because they wanted to focus on speed, simplicity, and beauty — something that was possible easily with photos, but not video.
Video for Instagram records up to 15 seconds, 9 seconds more than Vine and is part of the same Instagram app that many people have found useful. It has 13 custom filters that can be added to videos. It gives users the ability to select their own thumbnail as well.
The updated Instagram has teamed up with video scientists to also implement a Cinema feature that allows you to record and edit videos like professionals. It's "gorgeous, stabilized video for your iPhone." Systrom says that it "changes everything."
Systrom says that videos can be shared to Facebook natively in the timeline just like photos are currently. Why 15 seconds and not 6 seconds? Systrom says that Instagram tested it and found that 15 seconds passed the "Goldilocks" test so that it's not too long to share and not too short to miss capturing moments. He also says that it's also an artistic choice.
In the first version, Systrom says that he prefers users to capture video from within Instagram. That means no importing from the camera roll will be allowed, but in the future, things might change if it maintains the simplicity of the app.
Available everywhere today
Video for Instagram is available today for iOS, Android, and the Web starting today. Users can download the app right from the Apple store and Google Play store.
Advertising on Instagram
Systrom says that video was driven by consumer-demand, not by business. He believes that there is a natural business opportunity with photos, but when they designed the app around video, it was more about the user first. The company is perfectly happy with how businesses are engaging customers organically.
The company says that all photos and videos belong to the users and that Instagram will not be using user content for advertising purposes.
Video was foretold?
Should we really be surprised that Instagram now has video sharing? After all, in 2011, company co-founder Kevin Systrom hinted at TechCrunch Disrupt Beijing that video sharing was the next big opportunity Instagram would dive into:
Video makes sense to do. I will say it's a very interesting area. We really want to go after something bigger than filtered photos. Our job and our vision is to allow you to tell the story of your life, and whatever tools that may be for video, we'll end up making them.
Earlier this week, the social network company sent out invitations to journalists by postal mail asking them to come by for coffee and to learn about a new product. Soon after, TechCrunch reported that Facebook would add video recording to Instagram, its photo-sharing app. It cited an article by Matthew Keys several weeks ago that hinted that a Vine-like service was being tested internally.
The introduction of video for Instagram adds Facebook to the list of video-sharing services like Vine, Viddy, Socialcam, and 12Seconds. It also comes on the heels of reports that Twitter's Vine app may be launching some new features soon. The service recently announced it has 13 million users on iOS and Android devices.
Interestingly, any update to Instagram could be a bit of a pot shot against Twitter. After all, it was believed that Twitter's Chairman Jack Dorsey wanted to acquire the photo-sharing app before Mark Zuckerberg stepped in and picked it up for under $1 billion in cash and stock.
What's more, soon after the acquisition, people were wondering what would be the next $1 billion acquisition and whether it would be in the video space. It appears that the so-called "Instagram of video" (read 10 suitable apps that could come close) has been found and we needn't look any further than at Facebook itself to create it.
➤ Instagram 4.0 for iOS | Android
Photo credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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"Then Simon Peter came along behind him and went straight into the tomb. He saw the strips of linen lying there…. "(John 20:6)
When you think about it, it really is an amazing thing that there is a Shroud of Turin! Is there really anything else like it (perhaps there is, I don't know)? And if it finally turns out that the Shroud is a forgery from centuries ago, you would still have to say that the man who forged it was the genius of his times, even scientifically and artistically ahead of anything we could produce like it today (see the two studies I reference below).
The renowned Catholic historian, Warren H. Carroll, who died in 2011, clearly believed in the supernatural origin of the Shroud of Turin. Professor Carroll was especially impressed by the scholarship of Ian Wilson regarding the historical continuity and preservation of the Shroud (see Vol. 1 of the six volume A History of Christendom, where Professor Carroll refers on a number of occasions to the Shroud of Turin in a very favorable manner).
But in this note I simply intend to bring to the reader's attention a very concise summary of two major scientific studies that help to validate the authenticity of the Shroud of Turin – remembering, of course, that faith is a supernatural virtue, certainly not opposed to science, but not dependent upon scientific verification of a purported relic.
1. The STURP in-depth scientific examination of the Shroud of Turin (1978)
The "primary goal" of the the Shroud of Turin Research Project, Inc., (STURP) "was to determine the scientific properties of the image on the Shroud of Turin, and what might have caused it." STURP "consisted of a team of American scientists and researchers that spent over two years preparing a series of tests that would gather a vast amount of Shroud data in a relatively short period of time. In October of 1978 the STURP team spent 120 continuous hours conducting their examination of the Shroud. To this day, scientists around the world use the data gathered by STURP for their Shroud research" (source: shroud.com, an excellent site on the Shroud of Turin).
According to a National Geographic article on the Shroud of Turin, "the U.S.-led Shroud of Turin Research Project (STURP), …was granted an unprecedented five days of continuous access to the shroud itself in 1978. The project's 33 members ran the gamut of scientific disciplines, and their credentials included high-level posts at 20 major research institutions. They arrived in Turin with seven tons of equipment and worked in shifts 24 hours a day. An associate team of European scientists acted as expert observers" (from Why Shroud of Turin Secrets Continue to Elude Science by Frank Viviano, April 17, 2015, available online).
The National Geographic article further states: "Their analyses found no sign of artificial pigments. 'The Shroud image is that of a real human form of a scourged, crucified man. It is not the product of an artist,' the project's 1981 report declared. 'The blood stains are composed of hemoglobin and also give a positive test for serum albumin.' But the report also conceded that no combination of 'physical, chemical, biological or medical circumstances' could adequately account for the image. The Shroud of Turin, the STURP team concluded, 'remains now, as it has in the past, a mystery.'"
The main findings of the STURP scientific study of the Shroud of Turin are summarized nicely by physicist Paolo Di Lazzaro:
"The Shroud is not a painting, no pigment, any directionality, not a scorch. The image encodes cloth to body distance, and it is present in both contact and non contact areas. The image is superficial, no more than 0.6 microns thick (work by others has shown 0.2 microns ). Invisible halos surround blood. Blood went on before image (no image beneath blood). The blood stains contain hemoglobin and serum albumin. Calcium and strontium and iron are uniformly present on the Shroud in small quantities (Paolo Di Lazzaro, ATSI 2014 Bari)."
Here is the official summary of STURP's conclusions courtesy of a link provided by shroud.com: Summary of STURP's Conclusions.
2. The Five Year Study of the Shroud of Turin by the National Agency for New Technologies (2011)
In December of 2011 ABC News reported (in an article available online) that a recently concluded study by a group of Italian scientists "refuted the popular notion that [the Shroud of Turin] was faked during the Middle Ages. Experts at Italy's National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Development have concluded in a report that the famed purported burial cloth of Jesus Christ could not have been faked."
ABC News reported that "the Italian researchers, who conducted dozens of hours of tests with X-rays and ultraviolet lights, said that no laser existed to date that could replicate the singular nature of markings on the shroud. They also said that the kind of markings on the cloth could not have come from direct contact of the body with the linen. The Italian scientists said the marks could only have been made by 'a short and intense burst of VUV directional radiation.' "
According to the National Geographic article mentioned above, "the National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) conducted five years of experiments, using state-of-the-art excimer lasers to train short bursts of ultraviolet light on raw linen, in an effort to simulate the image's coloration" and "published its findings in 2011."
Relying on quotes from physicist Paolo Di Lazzaro of ENEA, the National Geographic article continues (as placed in italics), stating: The ultraviolet light necessary to [simulate the image] "exceeds the maximum power released by all ultraviolet light sources available today," says Di Lazzaro. It would require "pulses having durations shorter than one forty-billionth of a second, and intensities on the order of several billion watts." If the most advanced technologies available in the 21st century could not produce a facsimile of the shroud image, he reasons, how could it have been executed by a medieval forger?
For believers, the radiation thesis suggests that a "divine light" in the tomb might have seared the crucified form of Jesus Christ onto the shroud. "One could look at hypotheses outside the realm of science, a sort of miracle," says Di Lazzaro. "But a miracle cannot be investigated by the scientific method" (end of article).
Here is a link to The ENEA team report, which published its findings in 2011 (scroll and click on the word "published").
Based on the two in-depth scientific investigations outlined above, namely, the STURP study and the ENEA study, it certainly does not appear that the image on the Shroud of Turin was made by human hands. The supernatural origin of this great relic of the Church cannot be ruled out, and even appears now to be the most likely explanation of this scientifically inexplicable image which is claimed to be the burial cloth of Jesus Christ (for an informative video on the Shroud, see the link below).
Thomas L. Mulcahy, M.A.
Image: At Wikipedia (Turin plasch.jpg), Public Domain, U.S.A.
An informative video on The Shroud of Turin (click on the following link): 15 Minute Video: Russ Breault explains his take on the Shroud of Turin. From Shroudstory.com
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In a world in which most western liberal democracies are slamming Trump for demanding a wall be built on the US southern border to prevent illegal immigrants from entering the US, Europe is about to erect a metaphorical wall targeting legal US travelers, because starting in 2021, U.S. citizens will need a visa to visit most European countries.
"Similar to other countries and regions in the world Europe has recently decided to improve their security level to avoid any further problems with illegal migration and terrorism," the EU said. Continue reading


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Tomorrow's weather forecast for Carlisle, PA, is:
Windy with showers. High 58F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
First of all, 58 degrees on December 28? Sweet! But what does "chance of rain 40%" mean? Does it mean that there is a 40% chance that it will rain at my house? Does it mean that there is a 40% chance that it will rain somewhere in the Carlisle area? If we get a few drops that barely wet the ground, does that count as rain? Does it mean that 40% of the region will get rain? Maybe that it will rain for 40% of the day? Most importantly, should I take my kids to the park tomorrow to enjoy the unseasonably warm weather?
If mathematicians know anything, it is that definitions are important. What are these weather organizations trying to tell us when they give us the percent chance of rain? What is the definition of the "percent chance of rain"?
The Wall Street Journal's Carl Bialik, The Number's Guy, recently wrote an article called Deciphering a 20% Chance of Rain. In it he answers some of these questions. It turns out that "percent chance of rain" does not mean the same thing for every weather organization.
According to the article, AccuWeather.com says that the percentage is the probability that a measurable amount of rain (defined to be at least 0.01″) falls at the 'official' verification site. So they may call it a rainy day even if not a drop fell at my house.
On the other hand, the National Weather Service's percentage, the "probability of precipitation" (PoP), is calculated as follows (their mathematical notation, not mine).
PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.
As an example they say that if there is a 50% chance that the region will get rain and they expect this rain to cover 80% of the region then the PoP is 40%. They add that if the meteorologist is sure that it is going to rain (C=100%), then the PoP is the percent of the region that will get rain.
This got me wondering about the psychology of weather forecasts: if we were to look back at all the days with a 40% chance of rain, would 40% of them have rain? I'm not talking about the meteorologists' predictive abilities—I am wondering if meteorologists are ever pressured by their public relations office to overstate the case for rain. In my experience people (me included) have a bad intuitive sense of probabilities. If a meteorologist said that there was a 15% chance of rain, and it rained, then there would probably be a lot of angry people. But 15% is not that small of a percentage—it should rain 3 out of every 20 such days. It would be more likely to rain that day than to flip three heads in a row.
(I suppose it could go the other way too—there could be angry people who cancelled an outing based on an 85% chance of rain on a day that it didn't rain.)
As a partial answer to my question, I found the following table on the Internet. It presents the result of a survey showing how the public (in Juneau, Alaska) interpreted various weather-related qualifiers compared to how the qualifiers are used by the National Weather Service.
|Survey Mean
|Probability Percentage
|slight chance
|10%, 20%
|80%, 90%, 100%
|30%, 40%, 50%
|widely scattered
|30%, 40%, 50%
|areas of
|80%, 90%, 100%
|80%, 90%, 100%
|80%, 90%, 100%
|periods of
|80%, 90%, 100%
|80%, 90%, 100%
|80%, 90%, 100%
|80%, 90%, 100%
Sure enough, the terms corresponding to low probabilities (10%, 20%) were perceived as higher percentages by the public. Similarly, the terms corresponding to high probabilities (80%, 90%, 100%) were perceived as lower percentages. I take this to mean that the public does not understand high and low probabilities—despite what our intuition tells us, 80% is no guarantee of rain and a 20% day need not be dry.
So… an unseasonably warm December day with a 40% chance of rain—do I take the kids to the park, or not? According to this chart, there is a "chance of rain" or there may be "scattered" rain showers. Hmmm… I think we'll go—a little rain can't hurt anyway.
Odds and ends:
Here's a quote from my favorite movie about a weatherman: L.A. Story. It is an argument between the goofy meteorologist Harris Telemacher (Steve Martin) and his boss. It takes place in Los Angeles.
– So I pretape the weather and some sailors lost their boats. Big deal! Besides, what kind of as$#0le sailor would trust the "wacky weatherman" anyway?
– This one.
– You lost your boat?
– Yes. You're fired.
The Numbers Guy wrote a few other articles about weather:
Grading Weather Forecasts
How Much Rain Fell in Marble Falls, Texas?
Should World Series Forecasts Be Charged With an Error?
Here is a link to an interesting website that will tell you which weather service does the best job of predicting weather in your area.


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May is National Military Appreciation Month (NMAM), a time to recognize and celebrate the contributions of the courageous men and women who have served or are currently serving in the United States Armed Forces.
Designated by Congress, NMAM encourages Americans to publicly show their appreciation for the sacrifices—and accomplishments—made by our military personnel. During this important month, Americans have the opportunity to come together to thank our military for their patriotic service in support of our country, at several national events planned throughout the month.
Loyalty Day, which is celebrated May 1 of each year, kicks off our Nation's month-long celebration of military appreciation. In his proclamation of Loyalty Day, 2014, President Barack Obama reminded Americans of the significance of this important day: "On this day, let us reaffirm our allegiance to the United States of America and pay tribute to the heritage of American freedom."
Other important events honoring our military's achievements include Victory in Europe (VE) Day celebrated on May 8, Military Spouse Appreciation Day celebrated on May 9, Armed Forces Day celebrated on May 17, and Memorial Day celebrated on May 26. Armed Forces Day and Memorial Day are the best known of the May military-themed holidays. Armed Forces Day, which was created to honor all branches of the U.S. Military, replaced separate Army, Navy and Air Force Days. And Memorial Day commemorates the men and women who died while serving in military service.
In observance of NMAM and the other important events around the country honoring our military this month, Government Book Talk is highlighting several of our bestselling military journals and magazines.
Army History is published by the U.S. Army Center of Military History (CMH). It is a professional military magazine devoted to informing the military history community about new work on the Army's history. Issues include illustrated articles, commentaries, book reviews, and news about Army history and the U.S. Army Center of Military History.
Naval Aviation News is the flagship publication of naval aviation. It covers all aspects of naval air operations. Featured articles review the latest technological advances in aircraft and weapon systems and the influence of U.S. naval air power in global events. Issues include historical profiles of aircraft, aviation ships, important aviators, and organizations that affected the Navy's control of the air.
As one of the premier military magazines/military journals, Military Review provides a forum for original thought and debate on the art and science of land warfare and other issues of current interest to the U.S. Army and the Department of Defense.
Joint Force Quarterly is designed for national security professionals in and out of the U.S. Government to promote understanding of the integrated employment of land, sea, air, space, and special operations forces. This journal focuses on joint doctrine, integrated operations, coalition warfare, contingency planning, military operations conducted across the spectrum of conflict, and joint force development.
Army AL&T Magazine is a quarterly professional journal published
by the U.S. Army Acquisition Support Center within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology or AL&T. This official military magazine reports on Army research, development and acquisition and includes articles relative to state-of-the-art technology, capabilities, processes, procedures, techniques, and management philosophy, focusing heavily on lessons learned and best business practices.
How can I get these military magazine/journal publications?
Shop Online Anytime: You can buy these publications (with FREE Standard Shipping worldwide) from the U.S. Government Online Bookstore website at http://bookstore.gpo.gov:
• Click here to purchase Army History
• Click here to purchase Naval Aviation News
• Click here to purchase Military Review
• Click here to purchase Joint Force Quarterly
• Click here to purchase Army AL&T
• Shop our entire Military Journals and Magazines collection
Order by Phone: You may also Order print editions by calling our Customer Contact Center Monday through Friday, 8 am to 5:30 pm Eastern (except US Federal holidays). From US and Canada, call toll-free 1.866.512.1800. DC or International customers call +1.202.512.1800.
Shop our Retail Store: Buy a copy of any print editions from this collection at GPO's retail bookstore at 710 North Capitol Street NW, Washington, DC 20401, open Monday–Friday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., except Federal holidays, Call (202) 512-0132 for information or to arrange in-store pick-up.
Visit a Federal Depository Library: Search for U.S. Government publications in a nearby Federal depository library. You can find the records for most titles in the Catalog of U.S. Government Publications or CGP.
About the author: Trudy Hawkins is a writer and marketing specialist in GPO's Publication & Information Sales Division supporting the U.S. Government Online Bookstore (http://bookstore.gpo.gov).