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Bayesian model selection for the Drosophila gap gene network
The gap gene system controls the early cascade of the segmentation pathway in Drosophila melanogaster as well as other insects. Owing to its tractability and key role in embryo patterning, this system has been the focus for both computational modelers and experimentalists. The gap gene expression dynamics can be considered strictly as a one-dimensional process and modeled as a system of reaction-diffusion equations. While substantial progress has been made in modeling this phenomenon, there still remains a deficit of approaches to evaluate competing hypotheses. Most of the model development has happened in isolation and there has been little attempt to compare candidate models.
The Bayesian framework offers a means of doing formal model evaluation. Here, we demonstrate how this framework can be used to compare different models of gene expression. We focus on the Papatsenko-Levine formalism, which exploits a fractional occupancy based approach to incorporate activation of the gap genes by the maternal genes and cross-regulation by the gap genes themselves. The Bayesian approach provides insight about relationship between system parameters. In the regulatory pathway of segmentation, the parameters for number of binding sites and binding affinity have a negative correlation. The model selection analysis supports a stronger binding affinity for Bicoid compared to other regulatory edges, as shown by a larger posterior mean. The procedure doesn't show support for activation of Kruppel by Bicoid.
We provide an efficient solver for the general representation of the Papatsenko-Levine model. We also demonstrate the utility of Bayes factor for evaluating candidate models for spatial pattering models. In addition, by using the parallel tempering sampler, the convergence of Markov chains can be remarkably improved and robust estimates of Bayes factors obtained.
KeywordsGap genes Reaction-diffusion equations Bayesian model selection Parallel tempering Bayes factor
- Bcd
- Gt
- Hb
Hamiltonian monte carlo
- Kni
- Kr
Markov Chain monte carlo
Maximum likelihood estimate
- ODEs
Ordinary differential equations
- PDEs
Partial differential equations
Parallel tempering markov chain monte carlo
- Tll
In this paper, we explore models for the developmental process of segmentation in Drosophila, providing an efficient model solver. We use the Bayesian framework for inference and model selection. The process by which multicellular organisms develop from a single fertilized cell has been the focus of much attention. It was postulated that organisms are patterned by gradients of certain form-producing substances. Boveri [1] and Horstadius [2] used this idea to explain the patterning of the sea urchin embryo. The idea was given further impetus by the discovery of the Spemann organizer [3] which suggested that morphogenesis is the result of signals released from localized group of cells. In 1952, Turing, working on the problem of spatial patterning, coined the term morphogen to describe 'form-producers'. He used mathematical models to show that chemical substances could self-organize into patterns starting from homogeneous distributions [4]. However, a definitive example of a morphogen was only provided in 1987 by the discovery of Bicoid function in the Drosophila embryo [5, 6] and subsequent visualization of its gradient [7, 8]. Not surprisingly, patterning in the Drosophila embryo has been the focus of both developmental and systems biologists.
The formation of several broad gap gene [9] expression patterns within the first two hours of development characterizes early Drosophila embryogenesis. Taken together, the gap genes constitute one of the four regulatory layers in the cascade of segmentation pathway in Drosophila embryo. Expression of gap genes is regulated by maternal genes [10] and they also participate in mutual repression [11]. Thus, activation by maternal gradients, combined with spatially specific gap-gap cross repression helps to establish, sharpen and maintain the broad overlapping domains of the gap gene expression along the Anterior-Posterior (A-P) axis. The gap gene network is one of the few examples of a developmental gene network which has been studied extensively using data-driven mathematical models [12, 13, 14] in order to reconstruct the regulatory structure of the gap gene network. However, there continues to be active discussion [15, 16] on how maternal gradients and mutual gap gene repression contribute to the formation of gap stripes.
Mathematical representation of the gap gene network through quantitative dynamical systems has helped investigate regulatory structure of this network along with specific properties of this representation such as the strength of interaction, cooperativity of regulators, etc. However, there is a deficit of a rigorous framework within which putative representations can be compared and allows one to conduct formal statistics of relative fit. In a seminal paper, Jaeger et al. [12] used a dynamical model where a genetic inter-connectivity matrix described the regulatory parameters. Based on measures of model fit, they argued that dual regulatory action of Hunchback on Kruppel is not essential for to explain gap gene domain formation. While this may be valid, they do not provide a relative goodness of fit of the model against a representation that assumes dual-regulation. Perkins et al. [17] did an extensive study of gap gene regulatory relationships and compared proposed networks in literature. However, their study does not provide a measure of statistical significance for model comparison. Essentially, the question we want to ask is how to chose between competing hypothesis for the network structure in a statistically rigorous manner ? In addition, real data is often contaminated with measurement noise and we need methods that can help us deal with this uncertainty.
Addressing the latter point, one way to handle error associated with experimental observations is to model it as Gaussian noise. If we know or are willing to assume a model for the error variance, then an estimate of the parameters can be sought by maximizing the likelihood in a least squares sense. This is the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) [18] of the parameters. However, this point estimate suffers from being unrepresentative and is often intractable, especially if the likelihood is multimodal.
An alternative approach is the Bayesian framework which allows one to not only account for experimental error by propagating it to the model parameters but also a way to integrate our prior beliefs on the distribution of model parameters. In this manner, a posterior distribution of the model parameters is obtained which encapsulates our belief in the parameter values given uncertainty in measurement. Indeterminacy of model parameters and correlations between indeterminate parameters are incorporated into the marginal likelihood (evidence). Direct computations of integrals involved in Bayesian methods are difficult and so researchers tend to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods like Gibbs sampling or Metropolis-Hastings algorithm [19]. Bayesian approaches have enjoyed great success in genetics [20] and we and others [21] expect that they will provide more satisfactory solutions to inference problems in computational systems biology.
In addition, the Bayesian approach allows us to assess which of the competing models is better supported by the data by comparing the ratios of marginal likelihood of the models. The process of comparing models is more formally known as model selection and the ratio of marginal likelihoods is also called the Bayes factor [22]. It follows, that in order to use Bayes factors, one needs to estimate the marginal likelihood of a model. However, this task becomes increasingly intractable with growing model dimensionality and a conventional Metropolis-Hastings sampling approach generally leads to poor mixing properties and unreliable conclusions. To overcome this difficulty, we use the parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo (PT-MCMC) sampling technique [23]. Briefly, this method runs parallel chains at different temperatures (or degree of smoothness of likelihood surface) and allows exchanges between the chains based on the Hastings ratio. The end result is a chain that mixes well and also doesn't get stuck in local optima. Another benefit of this approach is that it allows one to use path integration to compute the thermodynamic estimator [24] of the marginal likelihood. This estimator has been shown to be reliable when working with Bayes factors [25] in the context of differential equations.
We currently focus on the Papatsenko-Levine formalism [26], which exploits a fractional occupancy based approach to incorporate activation of the gap genes by the maternal genes and cross-regulation by the gap genes themselves. An advantage of this formalism is that it incorporates non-linear effects between regulatory interactions and is closer to a mechanistic view of how regulation in this system occurs [27]. While in their paper, Papatsenko & Levine assumed that network structure is known a priori, our approach allows one to choose from competing network topologies reported in the literature and to vary strength of interactions between gap genes. It is worth mentioning here that although we consider models of increasing complexity, Bayes factors allows model comparison without concerns of over-fitting, that is, they allow one to implicitly control for model dimensionality [28].
Expression data
Model solution
Time-varying systems can be modeled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs) which have efficient solvers available (for example, [30]). However, in pattern formation gene expression varies both in time and space and partial differential equations (PDEs) are the suitable method for characterizing this process. Closed form solutions for PDEs exist only in the most simplest of cases and numerical solutions need to be employed. Packaged solvers for PDEs do exist [31] and some like deal.II [32] have been used in systems biology applications [33, 34, 35]. However, due to the overhead of generalizability and computational tractability in structuring models, we wrote our own solver.
Here, ui(x,t) represents the expression of gap gene, i, at time t and position x with Neumann boundary conditions, i.e., we assume that flux at the boundaries is zero. α represents the production rate, β is the linear decay rate and D is the diffusion constant. L denotes the length of the embryo and T corresponds to cleavage cycle 14.4 which marks the start of gastrulation. PA and PB are respectively combined activation and repression effects of regulators for each gap gene. These regulatory effects are a function of the gap gene expression and its binding affinity (K), cooperativity rate (Co) and the number of binding sites (Ns). (Details in the Additional file 1 text.)
Parameter estimation
p(θ|Y) is the posterior density of the parameters
L(θ;Y) is the likelihood of the data as elaborated above
π(θ) is the prior belief of the parameter
p(Y) is the marginal likelihood
Instead, we rely on the Markov chain Monte Carlo [39] method used for high-dimensional sampling. The idea behind these methods is to draw samples from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. When set up correctly, this distribution produces samples from the posterior distribution. The marginal likelihood itself, however, is relevant for model selection and we will return to its estimation in the "Model selection" section.
Metropolis-Hastings sampling
The terms are as defined previously and we note that the marginal likelihood term has conveniently canceled out in denominator. The proposal q(·|·) is usually taken to be a Gaussian, however, we note that in our case, the number of sites parameter, Ns, is discrete. Accordingly, we define the proposal density as a mixed density. With probability, p<1/10, we perturb Ns by either increasing or decreasing it by 1 with equal probability, while keeping the rest of the parameters unchanged. Else, we perturb each of the other parameters based on a Gaussian centered at the current value of the parameters, θi and with variance 0.1I, where I is the identity matrix. We use bounded uniform prior on all the parameters.
Parallel tempered MCMC sampling
- 1
Initial start positions are assigned to each chain, Θ=(θ1,…,θN)
- 2
Associate each chain with a temperature based on a temperature ladder, (Θ,t)=(θ1,t1,…θN,tN)
- 3Repeat till convergence of all chains
- (a)
Apply local Metropolis-Hastings update step to each chain
- (b)
Pick two neighboring chains at different temperature. Assume states θi and θj for N pairs (i,j) with i sampled uniformly in (1,…,N) and j=i±1 with probability pe(θi,θj) where pe(θi,θi+1)=pe(θi,θi−1)=0.5 and pe(θ1,θ2)=pe(θN,θN−1)=1
- (c)
Exchange the state of the chains based on acceptance ratio
- (a)
- 4
Use chain with lowest temperature for estimating posterior density
While the chain at the lowest temperature can be used for parameter inference, all the chains together can be used to estimate the marginal likelihood [25] and in turn calculate Bayes factors for Bayesian model comparison for model ranking. It is this aspect that we turn to next.
Model selection
The quantity in brackets is the ratio of the marginal likelihoods of the two models and is termed the Bayes factors. When we have no prior preference of one model over the other, we assume p(M1)=p(M2) and then the ratio of likelihoods is exactly equal to the Bayes factor. In essence, then, the problem of model selection boils down to the problem of estimating the marginal likelihood.
However, in practice this is a poor estimator unless working with very large sample sizes. Similarly, the importance sampling based the posterior harmonic mean estimator has been shown [42, 43] to be a very poor estimator.
The expectation with respect to the posterior at each temperature on the ladder can be approximated using the Monte Carlo estimate. For all the models we used a temperature schedule with N=10 according to an exponential ladder \(t_{i} = \left (\frac {i}{N}\right)^{5}, i = 1,..., N\) as suggested in [25].
Model over-fitting
The process of model selection described above helps guard against choosing over-parameterized models by penalizing them implicitly for higher dimensionality. This ability of Bayes factors to prioritize simpler models over complex ones has also been discussed elsewhere [28, 41].
However, as we consider relative goodness of fit amongst models, there might still be an argument that the best chosen model does over-fit the data. One way to test model over-fitting is cross-validation [44]. In such an approach, usually, we can envisage excluding some of the data (validation set) during model fitting step and then testing the accuracy of the model on this held-out data set. An over-fit model would perform well on the fitted data but poorly on the held-out dataset.
- 1
We fit the model to the data y1,⋯,ym, where m is chosen such that 1,⋯,m corresponds to the first 60% of the data, drawn sequentially across the embryo axis.
- 2
We use the fitted model to predict for the next 5% of observations and compute the log-likelihood.
- 3
Repeat steps 1 & 2, adding 5% of the data set to training set and predict the next 5%.
- 4
Finally, compute the mean log-likelihood from the predictions made above.
As our data is stratified, we ensure that the training set draws evenly from expression observation of the gap genes, i.e. we pick the initial 60% of the observations from each of the four gap genes to train the model. Similarly, predictions are made on the next 5% of the observations for each gap gene.
The models, solver and MCMC sampler were coded using the python programming language. PyMC [45] was used for certain diagnostic visualizations. The code for reproducing the analysis is available on GitHub at the repository: https://github.com/asifzubair/BayesianModelSelection.
The Drosophila gap gene network has been the subject of intense study from both experimentalists and computational modelers. Despite this, efforts to compare proposed network hypothesis in a statistically rigorous manner have been few and far between. Here, we propose to use the Bayesian framework for doing parameter inference and model selection. The Bayesian framework permits one to do a fully probabilistic analysis of model system allowing one to account for uncertainty in parameter estimates and model fit. We employ an MCMC approach using the parallel tempering (PT-MCMC) sampler to do Bayesian analysis. This sampler not only allows for better convergence but also helps one to compute the thermodynamic estimator for marginal likelihood. Other sampling approaches for accelerating convergence like adaptive MCMC [46] and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) [47] exist. However, these samplers require all the parameters to be continuous whereas the PT-MCMC sampler does not have such a restriction. In addition, they do not have the benefit of providing a natural way to estimate the marginal likelihood like the PT-MCMC sampler does. Using estimates of the marginal likelihood, we use Bayes factor to compare between models.
Specifications for all 6 models evaluated
Global parameters:
C o
C o
C o
C o
C o
C o
Binding Sites
N s
N s
N s
N s
N s
N s
Max. conc
Node-specific binding affinities:
Bcd A
Bcd R
Cad A
Hb A
Hb D
Hb R
Gt R
Kr R
Kni R
Tll R
Open Parameters:
In their paper, Papatsenko & Levine [26] fit each of the models (A6, B7 and C8) separately by maximizing an objective function based on the correlation measured between the model and the data. They use the final correlation value to distinguish between the models. Their formulation and analysis showed that the gap gene network can be modeled using a more modular approach, involving two relatively independent network domains. In addition, they show close agreement of parameter estimates and experimentally observed values for most parameters. However, their approach to compare the models themselves is slightly problematic as it does not apply appropriate penalties for increasing model dimensionality. Bayes factors apply this penalty implicitly and so adhere to the notion of Occam's razor of favoring simple hypothesis over complex ones. Moreover, Papatsenko & Levine do not offer a measure of statistical significance to justify model choice and rely on an ad-hoc notion of over-fitting. We enhance their fundamentally sound approach by allowing for statistically rigorous model selection and also allow for comparing competing network hypothesis.
Efficient model solver
Convergence of MCMC runs
Time to convergence for MCMC samplers can be sensitive to initial start points. To overcome this, some approaches try to initialize the sampler from the MLE estimate of the likelihood function. This approach suffers from the same pitfalls as optimization algorithms, in that the sampler may not sample the whole likelihood space and the evidence of convergence may be misleading.
To ensure that the sampler had indeed converged, we initialized the chain from random start points drawn from a uniform prior. We used the Gelman-Rubin statistic [50] to monitor convergence of the chains. This diagnostic uses multiple chains to check for lack of convergence, and is based on the notion that if multiple chains have converged, by definition they should appear very similar to one another. The Gelman-Rubin statistic uses an analysis of variance approach to assessing convergence by calculating both the between-chain variance and within-chain variance to assess whether chains have indeed converged. We used the gelman.plot() function from the R [51] package coda [52] to plot the Gelman-Rubin statistic. It calculates the Gelman-Rubin shrink factor (R) repeatedly, first calculating with 50 observations and then adding bins of 10 observations iteratively. For convergence, we would ideally want the shrink factor to be below 1.2.
Marginal likelihood and Bayes factors
Criteria due to Kass & Rafferty [22] for interpretation of Bayes factor as evidence support categories
Evidence against H0
0 to 2
1 to 3
Not worth more than a bare mention
2 to 6
3 to 20
6 to 10
20 to 150
Very strong
Gene expression profiles
Over-fitting analysis
We tested the best performing model (according to Bayes factor criteria), model B7r, for over-fitting. We used a modified cross-validation (CV) approach for testing over-fitting (see methods). In each CV-fold, we fit the model to the training set and then draw 100 samples from the posterior parameter distribution. The posterior samples are used to predict values for the held out set. We use the mean log-likelihood metric as prediction accuracy measure. As a Gaussian error model is used, the mean log-likelihood is proportional to the residual error in this case. The mean log-likelihood for the cross validation set is 0.314 (±0.024). The mean log-likelihood using samples from posterior parameter distribution generated using the complete data is 0.326 (±0.061). Using a Student's t-test with Welch modification, we found the difference in means to not be statistically significant (P>0.05) indicating that the model doesn't over-fit the data.
Recovering gene regulatory network information from expression data is a key problem in systems biology. Particularly in the study of the segmentation pathway for early Drosophila embryo, various modeling approaches have been taken [12, 17, 26]. However, most of these modeling approaches rely on the assessment of a single candidate model. This sort of approach has been previously argued against [53] as it doesn't pay heed to competing hypotheses and hence, other plausible explanations. In addition, inference in these approaches rely on optimization techniques which do not account for uncertainty in experimental measurements. Optimization approaches try to offer measures of parameter certainty through sensitivity analysis but, barring certain studies [54], the issue of comparing models has been largely unadressed.
We do note that there have been some attempts [55] at doing model selection in the Drosophila embryo. However, the application of a structured framework in which models can be compared is still elusive. Doing the analysis in a Bayesian framework provides a more standard procedure to address both the issues of performing inference regarding different models and to assess the certainty of parameter estimates. An important issue when working with dynamical models is the issue of identifiability [49, 56, 57, 58] - the ability to uniquely estimate parameters of the model given the data. In the Bayesian context, a priori identifiability issues can be detected by examining the covariance structure of the full parameter posterior distribution. Parameters that are confounded will be tightly correlated. Identifiability issues can be surmounted by providing a more informative prior that more tightly constrains confounded parameters. In our case, however, we have chosen to work with uniform priors to indicate that our knowledge of the system is still evolving. Indeterminacy of model parameters are incorporated into the marginal likelihood, allowing one to still perform model selection. However, parameter relationships can still uncover important mechanisms. In our study, we find that the parameters for binding affinity and number of sites are negatively correlated (Additional file 1: Figure S3). Such a relationship is expected as it indicates that a transcription factor can modulate gene expression by either binding strongly to a few sites or through weak binding to multiple sites. Similar to our study, Chertkova et al. [59], show that loss of transcription factor binding sites in in silico models results in increase in binding affinity of transcription factors, supporting negative correlation between these parameters in order to maintain gene expression.
In the Bayesian framework, Bayes factors provide a means of doing model selection and have been employed to compare between ODE based models [25, 42, 60, 61]. We show here that similar approaches can be used for doing model selection in the context of PDE models for spatial patterning. An advantage of the Bayesian model selection paradigm using Bayes factors is that it doesn't require models to be nested, i.e models need not follow a set hierarchy where all models may be derived from an extended parameterized model. This particularly advantageous when we attempt to test hypotheses involving different network topologies. Samples from the posterior of parameter distribution were generated using the parallel tempering (PT-MCMC) sampler. This sampling approach can be easily combined with the numerically stable thermodynamic integration method to estimate marginal likelihood for each of the competing models. These estimates in turn can be used to compute Bayes factors. Our analysis shows that besides the global binding affinity parameter, a different node-specific parameter is required for describing the regulatory effect of Bicoid on its target genes. This may point to the fact that the molecular mechanism of activation by Bicoid is different from other maternal/gap genes. The node-specific Bicoid binding affinity parameter helps account for a posterior shift of Hunchback expression. A candidate hypothesis for the activation of Kruppel by Bicoid was also tested for. Our analysis offers little support for the activation of Kruppel by Bicoid.
We point out that as the computation of posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis involves integration over high-dimensional parameter spaces, sampling from higher dimensions becomes increasingly difficult. This is a particular limitation for the large parameter models that we see in systems biology. While there has been some progress in Bayesian parameter estimation in high-dimensions [62], this problem is far from solved. However, there might be some justification in criticism that these high-dimension models also tend to be over-parameterized and thus too flexible. One approach would be do a hierarchical Bayesian analysis [63] to constrain parameter sets in order to prevent the problem of over-fitting and estimation in higher dimensions.
This study aims to elaborate on a Bayesian framework for conducting model selection in context of the Drosophila early developmental segmentation pathway. In particular, we focus on identifying regulatory interactions for the gap gene network. Our study seeks to provide a statistical framework in which predicted experimental hypothesis can be tested. In addition, the model selection procedure also ensures that a minimal model for gap gene expression can be formulated. In order to conduct such an analysis, we provide an efficient solver for the Papatsenko-Levine formulation. In conclusion, we find that a seven parameter model with a node-specific binding affinity to describe regulatory action of Bicoid on the gap genes explains the data adequately.
Authors gratefully acknowledge help and advice from Dmitri Papatsenko and for generously donating his time to clarify model specifications and implementation.
SVN & PM acknowledge support from NIH grants, UO1 GM103804 & RO1 MH100879. AZ acknowledges support from University of Southern California (USC) Provost fellowship. The funding bodies played no role in the design of the study and analysis and interpretation of data and in writing the manuscript.
Availability of data and material
The dataset supporting the conclusions of this article is available in the github repository, https://github.com/asifzubair/BayesianModelSelection.
Authors' contributions
AZ, PM & SVN conceptualized the problem definition. AZ & IGR designed the model solver. AZ coded the models, solver and inference procedure. AZ wrote the initial draft of the manuscript. All authors edited, refined and approved the final manuscript.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary material
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Copyright information
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.


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Later on you may experience some of these toxic cadmium inhalation symptoms: dyspnea sweating shivering coughing arthralgia wheezing dry throat headache chest pain pneumonitis[healthblurbs.com]
Absorbed readily into the bloodstream, causing headaches, dizziness or muscular weakness.[ccohs.ca]
Gastrointestinal upset (abdominal pain, gingivitis and stomatitis, nausea, vomiting).[patient.info]
The three patients had similar clinical manifestations including: severe abdominal pain, headache, pale appearance and fatigue. Liver function tests were abnormal.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
The diagnosis of lead toxicity is often delayed and abdominal pain is mistaken for acute abdomen.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Very high levels of lead in the blood may cause personality changes, headaches, loss of sensation, weakness, a metallic taste in the mouth, uncoordinated walking, digestive[merckmanuals.com]
Complications include long term fatigue, persistent headaches and difficulty with balance and co-ordination.[medic8.com]
A 12-year-old Tongan female presented to our Emergency Department with mid-abdominal pain, nausea, change in mental status, and new-onset movement disorder after ingestion[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Generic symptoms of CP are dysuria, chills, sweating, polymyositis, a metallic taste in the mouth and painful ejaculation.[symptoma.com]
The most commonly seen complaints are headache, tremor, impaired cognitive skills, weakness, muscle atrophy, and paresthesia.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Exposure to inorganic mercury generally causes development of a metallic taste, local oropharyngeal pain, nausea, vomiting, bloody diarrhea, colic abdominal pain, renal dysfunction[orpha.net]
A 36-year-old woman presented to the ED with a three-day history of abdominal pain, diarrhea and fever.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Symptoms of heavy metal toxicity include mental confusion, pain in muscles and joints, headaches, short-term memory loss, gastrointestinal upsets, food intolerances/allergies[diagnose-me.com]
Acute toxicity from ingestion of high levels of cadmium can result in abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting and death (Gilbert 2004).[ecocenter.org]
taste occurring within 3-10 hours after exposure.[emedicine.medscape.com]
The clinical picture is secondary to histamine toxicity, manifested as flushing, headache, palpitations, and abdominal cramps.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Clinical manifestation consisted of hyperemia, particularly on the face and neck (94.7%), nausea and vomiting (17.0%), abdominal pain (17.0%), pruritus (4.3%), headache and[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
In addition, individuals may experience burning or swelling of the mouth, abdominal pain, or a metallic taste.[bouldercounty.org]
Her vomiting, which was preceded by objective torque vertigo, headache and weakness, had been recurring with constant frequency every two months since she was 3 years old.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Symptoms of lactose intolerance may include abdominal pain and bloating, diarrhoea and flatulence.[hc-sc.gc.ca]
The most common immediate symptoms of food allergy include: hives (large bumps on the skin) swelling itchy skin itchiness or tingling in the mouth metallic taste in the mouth[familydoctor.org]
[…] but I've had very few headaches.[diabetes.co.uk]
[…] and vomiting, abdominal pain pain 9.6 Protein 2 , blood 3 , no RBCs Increased cortical echogenicity, no hydronephrosis Lava 14 Oregon 18 Nausea and vomiting, abdominal pain[cdc.gov]
Effects may include a metallic taste in the mouth, prolonged nausea and vomiting, incessant hiccuping, itching all over the body, fluid retention, unintended weight loss and[livestrong.com]
Damaged lungs, degraded muscles: Why flu makes you feel so bad 1/2/19 We all know the symptoms of influenza infection include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches[barnstablecountyhealth.org]
Symptoms include an acrid metallic taste, cardiac failure, sweating, and vomiting about 30 min after ingestion.[medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com]
Repeated prolonged exposure to airborne antimony trichloride, antimony trisulfide or antimony oxide was seen to cause abdominal pain, diarrhea, vomiting, and ulcers.[holicolorsindia.com]
Harmful outcomes were uncommon, and 5-NIs were associated with lower risk of abdominal pain, and higher risk of both bitter or metallic taste and headache.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Other associated symptoms were abdominal pain (100%), abdominal distension (70%), flatulence (50%), less consistent stools (50%), anemia (30%), and increased erythrocyte sedimentation[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Side-effects including bitter taste, headache, vomiting and dizziness were significantly higher in the MTZ group. Abdominal pain was significantly higher in ABZ group.[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

subset: commoncrawl


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Four Seasons Landaa Giraavaru Maldives offers its guests a rare opportunity to join a thrilling seven-night research odyssey studying the Maldives' most exciting residents: manta rays and whale sharks aboard Four Seasons Explorer: the Maldives' fastest and most luxurious liveaboard. The waters of the pristine Baa Atoll around Four Seasons Resort Landaa Giraavaru Maldives are some of the richest in the Maldives. Declared a UNESCO World Biosphere in July 2011, the Atoll is home to nine core protected areas including Hanifaru Bay and Baathala, two renowned manta ray hotspots within easy reach of the Resort.
If swimming with manta rays and whale sharks isn't already on bucket list, it most definitely should be! Words cannot capture the wonder of sharing the water with some of the ocean's most majestic marine marvels – and with Four Seasons Explorer's Manta Trust Expeditions, guests don't even need to be diver to get in on the action! Conceived in conjunction with The Manta Trust – the world's leading manta ray charity – and escorted by its founder and world-renowned manta expert, Guy Stevens, the two all-inclusive seven-day expeditions (with the option of shorter 3- and 4-night cruises within the dates) will immerse participants in every fascinating aspect of the Trust's research and conservation efforts.
The expedition dates reflect The Manta Trust's 'peak sighting' predictions, based on the southwest current movements of plankton (mantas' and whales sharks' favourite food) through the Baa and Ari Atolls. Each exclusive expedition route will take daily climatic and environmental factors into consideration to maximise the chances of successful encounters… and with 2014's expeditions boasting a 100% sighting success rate, the scene is set for some exhilarating encounters!
Manta rays and whale sharks feed at the surface of the ocean, making the expeditions suitable for divers and non-divers alike, including families with children as young as 8 years. Read the experiences of 2014's youngest participant here! http://www.mantatrust.org/expedition-in-maldives-recipe-for-happiness/
As honorary researchers, all expedition participants are encouraged to engage in every aspect of the conservation experience: learning how to free dive and take ID photos; contributing to data collection; helping record critical environmental information; participating in workshops and even naming any mantas new to the Trust's database.
Hosted aboard the Maldives' fastest and most luxurious liveaboard, Four Seasons Explorer, the all-inclusive itineraries also give participants effortless access to a side of the Maldives rarely experienced by tourists: remote snorkel hotspots, secluded cultural experiences, isolated craft village visits, deserted sandbank barbecues, castaway beach massages, uncrowded water sports and spectacular daily sunrises and sunsets, afloat in the middle of the world's most mesmerising aquatic nation.
Note: Four Seasons & MMRP (founding project of The Manta Trust)
Based at Four Seasons Resort Landaa Giraavaru since 2006, The Maldivian Manta Ray Project (MMRP) is one of the world's longest running manta ray research and conservation initiatives. It is also the founding project of The Manta Trust – the world's leading manta ray charity – established to co-ordinate global research and conservation efforts for manta rays, their close relatives and their habitats. Thanks to the work of the MMRP at Landaa Giraavaru, the Maldivian manta ray population is one of the most intensely studied in the world, placing it at the forefront of international manta ray research and conservation: most notably, the successful 2013 listing of manta rays on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). In addition to collecting data on the manta rays it encounters, MMRP also studies environmental and climatic factors, as well as tourism and human interactions, contributing vital knowledge to global research efforts.
For rates and enquiries:
Reservations Department
Tel: (960) 66 00 888
Email: email@example.com www.fourseasons.com/maldives


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- Price$445,000
- Beds5
- Baths5½
- Built2002
2396 Kane Lane, BATAVIA
Situated in sought after Tanglewood Hills, this expansive, practically new home blends size, modern finishes and great floor plan ever so effortlessly! You walk into an expansive foyer with vaulted ceilings and will instantly notice the attention to detail, rod iron railings throughout, first floor library, two story family room with floor to ceiling windows along with fireplace which looks into the modern gourmet kitchen! The master suite on the 2nd floor is more of a master wing, many of the rooms offer hardwood under the flooring, basement is finished with very high ceilings, this home has it all! Do not pass on this as homes in this community rarely hit the market!
Essential Information
- Price$445,000
- Bedrooms5
- Bathrooms5.50
- Full Baths5
- Half Baths1
- Acres0.00
- Year Built2002
- TypeResidential
- Sub-TypeDetached Single
- StatusActive
- Parking Spaces3
- # of Garages3
- ExteriorBrick, Cedar
Additional Information
- RE / Bank OwnedYes
Community Information
- Address2396 Kane Lane
- AreaBatavia
- SubdivisionTANGLEWOOD HILLS
- CityBATAVIA
- CountyKane
- StateIL
- Zip Code60510
- HeatingGas, Forced Air, 2+ Sep Heating Systems, Indv Controls, Zoned
- CoolingCentral Air, Zoned
- FireplaceYes
- # of Fireplaces1
- StoriesC
School Information
- ElementaryGRACE MCWAYNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
- MiddleSAM ROTOLO MIDDLE SCHOOL OF BAT
- HighBATAVIA SR HIGH SCHOOL
Listing Details
- Listing OfficeRe/max Properties
Price Change History for 2396 Kane Lane, BATAVIA, IL (MLS® #10376481)
|Price Change
|Price Reduced (from $459,500)
|$14,500 (3.16%)
|Active (from New)
The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity program of Midwest Real Estate Data LLC. Real Estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Coldwell Banker Residential are marked with the Broker Reciprocity logo or the Broker Reciprocity thumbnail logo (a little black house) and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers. Some properties which appear for sale on this website may subsequently have sold and may no longer be available. The information being provided is for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Listing information last updated on June 18th, 2019 at 12:05am CDT.


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Led Light Bar Rocker Switch Wiring Diagram (Jun 21, 2019) - Details about led light bar rocker switch wiring diagram has been submitted by Maria Rodriquez and tagged in this category. Sometimes, we might need to slightly change the style, colour, or even equipment. We need a new concept for it and one of these is this led light bar rocker switch wiring diagram.
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It is an H-P but he has a password installed. For more methods to reset password on Windows 8, go and see. Follow the on-screen instructions to finish the recovery process. Hope this is helpful for you but not for whom is attempting to access the unauthorized computers. The guideline to the method is very simple and anybody can easily carry it out with least of technical knowledge. In general, it's a good idea to periodically change your password to take precautions against theft of identity, trade secrets and sensitive client information; this especially holds true for administrator accounts. Remember to set your laptop to.
Click on Reset Password button to set your password to blank. This is the only one administrator account to log into my laptop. You can select to back up your files if you haven't made a backup, or select Recover without backing up your files, and then click on Next. You will see the Command Prompt window pops up. Normally you can try the password on your mobiles, your birthday, address or other personal information. If you have created a password reset disk in advanced, now it's time to use it.
You can change your password on any device connect to the Internet. But take it easy, if you don't know if you have encrypted files or not, you most likely don't have them. Use the password reset disk created from another computer If you haven't created a password reset disk before, you can create one now on an accessible computer. The removable device will be formatted, so remember to remove the data from it to another save place. Right-click on Computer, select Manage to open Computer Management. Whether you are a journalist or a writer, you would indeed need a system which you can conveniently carry around for your ease. Following steps take Windows 8 for example.
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About four steps bellow: Step 1: Download and install Windows Password Rescuer on another available computer. Manual to use the Tool: Step 1. The method is a bit complicated one and can be easily performed if you follow the steps elaborated below: Step 1. One way to do that is by making up an acronym for a phrase or substituting numbers for letters or by doing a combination of both. Insert the flash drive and then follow the default instructions to finish the process.


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How To Tighten A Loose Sagging Chain - Garage Door Opener Repair - YouTube (superior Garage Door Opener Chain Adjustment #1) Photos Gallery
Howhow1 (hou),USA pronunciation adv.
- in what way or manner;
by what means?: How did the accident happen?
- to what extent, degree, etc.?: How damaged is the car?
- in what state or condition?: How are you?
- for what reason;
why?: How can you talk such nonsense?
- to what effect;
with what meaning?: How is one to interpret his action?
- what?: How do you mean? If they don't have vanilla, how about chocolate?
- (used as an intensifier): How seldom I go there!
- by what title or name?: How does one address the president?
- at what price: How are the new cars going, cheaper than last year's models?
- by what amount or in what measure or quantity?: How do you sell these tomatoes?
- in what form or shape?: How does the demon appear in the first act of the opera? How does the medication come?
- and how! [Informal.]certainly! you bet!: Am I happy? And how!
- Here's how, [Informal.](used as a toast).
- how come? [Informal.]how is it that? why?: How come you never visit us anymore?
- how so? how does it happen to be so? why?: You haven't any desire to go? How so?
- the manner or way in which: He couldn't figure out how to solve the problem.
- about the manner, condition, or way in which: I don't care how you leave your desk when you go. Be careful how you act.
- in whatever manner or way;
however: You can travel how you please.
- that: He told us how he was honest and could be trusted.
- a question concerning the way or manner in which something is done, achieved, etc.: a child's unending whys and hows.
- a way or manner of doing something: to consider all the hows and wherefores.
- a word formerly used in communications to represent the letter H.
Toto (to̅o̅; unstressed tŏŏ, tə),USA pronunciation prep.
- (used for expressing motion or direction toward a point, person, place, or thing approached and reached, as opposed to from): They came to the house.
- (used for expressing direction or motion or direction toward something) in the direction of;
toward: from north to south.
- (used for expressing limit of movement or extension): He grew to six feet.
- (used for expressing contact or contiguity) on;
upon: a right uppercut to the jaw; Apply varnish to the surface.
- (used for expressing a point of limit in time) before;
until: to this day; It is ten minutes to six. We work from nine to five.
- (used for expressing aim, purpose, or intention): going to the rescue.
- (used for expressing destination or appointed end): sentenced to jail.
- (used for expressing agency, result, or consequence): to my dismay; The flowers opened to the sun.
- (used for expressing a resulting state or condition): He tore it to pieces.
- (used for expressing the object of inclination or desire): They drank to her health.
- (used for expressing the object of a right or claim): claimants to an estate.
- (used for expressing limit in degree, condition, or amount): wet to the skin; goods amounting to $1000; Tomorrow's high will be 75 to 80°.
- (used for expressing addition or accompaniment) with: He added insult to injury. They danced to the music. Where is the top to this box?
- (used for expressing attachment or adherence): She held to her opinion.
- (used for expressing comparison or opposition): inferior to last year's crop; The score is eight to seven.
- (used for expressing agreement or accordance) according to;
by: a position to one's liking; to the best of my knowledge.
- (used for expressing reference, reaction, or relation): What will he say to this?
- (used for expressing a relative position): parallel to the roof.
- (used for expressing a proportion of number or quantity) in;
making up: 12 to the dozen; 20 miles to the gallon.
- (used for indicating the indirect object of a verb, for connecting a verb with its complement, or for indicating or limiting the application of an adjective, noun, or pronoun): Give it to me. I refer to your work.
- (used as the ordinary sign or accompaniment of the infinitive, as in expressing motion, direction, or purpose, in ordinary uses with a substantive object.)
- raised to the power indicated: Three to the fourth is 81( 34 = 81).
- toward a point, person, place, or thing, implied or understood.
- toward a contact point or closed position: Pull the door to.
- toward a matter, action, or work: We turned to with a will.
- into a state of consciousness;
out of unconsciousness: after he came to.
- to and fro. See fro (def. 2).
Looseloose (lo̅o̅s),USA pronunciation adj., loos•er, loos•est, adv., v. loosed, loos•ing.
- free or released from fastening or attachment: a loose end.
- free from anything that binds or restrains;
unfettered: loose cats prowling around in alleyways at night.
- uncombined, as a chemical element.
- not bound together: to wear one's hair loose.
- not put up in a package or other container: loose mushrooms.
- available for disposal;
unappropriated: loose funds.
- lacking in reticence or power of restraint: a loose tongue.
- lax, as the bowels.
- lacking moral restraint or integrity;
notorious for his loose character.
- sexually promiscuous or immoral;
- not firm, taut, or rigid: a loose tooth; a loose rein.
- relaxed or limber in nature: He runs with a loose, open stride.
- not fitting closely or tightly: a loose sweater.
- not close or compact in structure or arrangement;
having spaces between the parts;
open: a loose weave.
- having few restraining factors between associated constituents and allowing ample freedom for independent action: a loose federation of city-states.
- not cohering: loose sand.
- not strict, exact, or precise: a loose interpretation of the law.
- having the players on a team positioned at fairly wide intervals, as in a football formation.
- (of a ball, hockey puck, etc.) not in the possession of either team;
out of player control.
- hang or stay loose, [Slang.]to remain relaxed and unperturbed.
- on the loose:
- free;
unconfined, as, esp., an escaped convict or circus animal.
- behaving in an unrestrained or dissolute way: a bachelor on the loose.
- in a loose manner;
loosely (usually used in combination): loose-flowing.
- break loose, to free oneself;
escape: The convicts broke loose.
- cast loose:
- to loosen or unfasten, as a ship from a mooring.
- to send forth;
set adrift or free: He was cast loose at an early age to make his own way in the world.
- cut loose:
- to release from domination or control.
- to become free, independent, etc.
- to revel without restraint: After the rodeo they headed into town to cut loose.
- let loose:
- to free or become free.
- to yield;
give way: The guardrail let loose and we very nearly plunged over the edge.
- turn loose, to release or free, as from confinement: The teacher turned the children loose after the class.
- to let loose;
free from bonds or restraint.
- to release, as from constraint, obligation, or penalty.
- [Chiefly Naut.]to set free from fastening or attachment: to loose a boat from its moorings.
- to unfasten, undo, or untie, as a bond, fetter, or knot.
- to shoot;
let fly: to loose missiles at the invaders.
- to make less tight;
slacken or relax.
- to render less firmly fixed;
lessen an attachment;
loose′ly, adv.
- to let go a hold.
- to hoist anchor;
get under way.
- to shoot or let fly an arrow, bullet, etc. (often fol. by off): to loose off at a flock of ducks.
- [Obs.]to become loose;
loose′ness, n.
Chainchain (chān),USA pronunciation n.
- a series of objects connected one after the other, usually in the form of a series of metal rings passing through one another, used either for various purposes requiring a flexible tie with high tensile strength, as for hauling, supporting, or confining, or in various ornamental and decorative forms.
- Often, chains. something that binds or restrains;
bond: the chain of timidity; the chains of loyalty.
- chains:
- shackles or fetters: to place a prisoner in chains.
- bondage;
servitude: to live one's life in chains.
- [Naut.](in a sailing vessel) the area outboard at the foot of the shrouds of a mast: the customary position of the leadsman in taking soundings.
- See tire chain.
- a series of things connected or following in succession: a chain of events.
- a range of mountains.
- a number of similar establishments, as banks, theaters, or hotels, under one ownership or management.
- two or more atoms of the same element, usually carbon, attached as in a chain. Cf. ring1 (def. 17).
- [Survey., Civ. Engin.]
- a distance-measuring device consisting of a chain of 100 links of equal length, having a total length either of 66 ft. (20 m)(Gunter's chain or surveyor's chain) or of 100 ft. (30 m)(engineer's chain).
- a unit of length equal to either of these.
- a graduated steel tape used for distance measurements. Abbr.: ch
- See totally ordered set.
- [Football.]a chain 10 yd. (9 m) in length for determining whether a first down has been earned.
- drag the chain, [Australian Slang.]to lag behind or shirk one's fair share of work.
- in the chains, standing outboard on the channels or in some similar place to heave the lead to take soundings.
- to fasten or secure with a chain: to chain a dog to a post.
- to confine or restrain: His work chained him to his desk.
- to measure (a distance on the ground) with a chain or tape.
- to link (related items, as records in a file or portions of a program) together, esp. so that items can be run in sequence.
- to make (a chain stitch or series of chain stitches), as in crocheting.
chain′less, adj.
- to form or make a chain.
chain′like′, adj.
Garagega•rage (gə räzh′, -räj′ or, esp. Brit., gar′ij, -äzh),USA pronunciation n., v., -raged, -rag•ing.
- a building or indoor area for parking or storing motor vehicles.
- a commercial establishment for repairing and servicing motor vehicles.
ga•rage′a•ble, adj.
- to put or keep in a garage.
Doordoor (dôr, dōr),USA pronunciation n.
door′less, adj.
- a movable, usually solid, barrier for opening and closing an entranceway, cupboard, cabinet, or the like, commonly turning on hinges or sliding in grooves.
- a doorway: to go through the door.
- the building, house, etc., to which a door belongs: My friend lives two doors down the street.
- any means of approach, admittance, or access: the doors to learning.
- any gateway marking an entrance or exit from one place or state to another: at heaven's door.
- lay at someone's door, to hold someone accountable for;
- leave the door open, to allow the possibility of accommodation or change;
be open to reconsideration: The boss rejected our idea but left the door open for discussing it again next year.
- lie at someone's door, to be the responsibility of;
be imputable to: One's mistakes often lie at one's own door.
- show someone the door, to request or order someone to leave;
dismiss: She resented his remark and showed him the door.
Openero•pen•er (ō′pə nər),USA pronunciation n.
- a person or thing that opens.
- a device for opening sealed containers: can opener.
- the first of several theatrical numbers, variety acts, sports events, etc.: a humorous monologue as an opener.
- openers, [Poker.]cards in a hand, as a pair of jacks or better, that according to a given standard are worth enough to enable the holder to make the first bet of a deal.
- for openers, as an initially stated reason or argument;
at the outset;
to begin with: Well, for openers, I don't have the money.
Repairre•pair1 (ri pâr′),USA pronunciation v.t.
- to restore to a good or sound condition after decay or damage;
mend: to repair a motor.
- to restore or renew by any process of making good, strengthening, etc.: to repair one's health by resting.
- to remedy;
make good;
make up for: to repair damage; to repair a deficiency.
- to make amends for;
compensate: to repair a wrong done.
re•pair′a•ble, adj.
- an act, process, or work of repairing: to order the repair of a building.
- Usually, repairs.
- an instance or operation of repairing: to lay up a boat for repairs.
- a repaired part or an addition made in repairing: 17th-century repairs in brick are conspicuous in parts of the medieval stonework.
- repairs, (in bookkeeping, accounting, etc.) the part of maintenance expense that has been paid out to keep fixed assets in usable condition, as distinguished from amounts used for renewal or replacement.
- the good condition resulting from continued maintenance and repairing: to keep in repair.
- condition with respect to soundness and usability: a house in good repair.
re•pair′a•bil′i•ty, re•pair′a•ble•ness, n.
Hello , this attachment is about How To Tighten A Loose Sagging Chain - Garage Door Opener Repair - YouTube (superior Garage Door Opener Chain Adjustment #1). This picture is a image/jpeg and the resolution of this image is 1536 x 864. It's file size is just 133 KB. Wether You decided to save It to Your laptop, you can Click here. You could too see more images by clicking the photo below or see more at this post: Garage Door Opener Chain Adjustment.
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Featured Floor Plan: The Caroline
Why wait? Our new model home is open NOW!
Cornerstone Homes is excited to unveil our brand new Caroline model home at Barley Woods, our premier 55+ community in Fredericksburg. Our interior designer recently put their finishing touch on this gorgeous home. We can't wait for you to come and take a peek!
Available to be built in Barley Woods and The Cove, the Caroline is one of three floor plans in our Paired Home Collection, inspired by the spectacular, traditional courtyards of Europe. Warm, stylish, and intimate, this design is one to fall in love with.
Truly unique, the Caroline possesses old world charm and romanticism. A central courtyard can be seen from the great room, kitchen, and flex room, flooding these areas with sunlight and scenery. Choose between a spacious covered patio or sunroom, and spend your afternoons enjoying a great book with your favorite refreshing drink in hand.
In the Caroline, you'll also enjoy a fireplace in the great room, a spectacular private owner's suite with a luxurious bath and plenty of closet space, a cook's kitchen with a large kitchen island, private guest space, and flexible rooms that can be personalized to fit your lifestyle. Have you always wanted a home office or a media room? We can make it happen! With an abundance of space, luxurious rooms, and the highest-quality building materials, your family and guests will always feel as comfortable as can be. The Caroline is a must-see!


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Living life visually impaired has taught me a lot, and the concept of speaking is to lift people up. Show them why they matter, and what makes them powerful in their own life. I focus on speaking about how and what they can do to start change today. Giving people that feeling of hope, showing them the sky is the limit, and they can accomplish anything in there life they wish to do.
About John
My name is john, and come from the state of Kentucky. I am 40 years old and have been visually impaired my entire life. Being blind has taught me a lot about life, and how to get through the rough times. I like to ask people one question. What are you waiting for? We only live once in this beautiful world, and the clock doesn't stop for us. Time keeps going, and the longer we wait, the longer we keep making up excuses. Something i like to call "to procrastinate". Today is your day, and i want to see you walk out of here today with something. I want to see you leave with hope. If i can believe in you, you can believe in you. So give me 1 hour of your time, and help me help you. I know you can do it, and after you hear how i feel. You will be glad you took the time to listen. I understand life can be rough, and together we can get this sorted out. Then you can get up and take action today. Start change in your life and go for all the dreams and goals you ever had!


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Statistical Analysis on Severe Convective Weather combining satellite, conventional observation and NCEP data
Yaping Zhu, Institute of Aviation Meteorology, Beijing, , China; and J. Liu, Z. Cheng, and Y. Li
Severe convective weather plays a key role in many fields of atmospheric studies. Hazards related to thunderstorms in southeast China bring on the heavy flood and cost many tens of millions of dollars annually in lost time. Many research studies in severe weather are explored based on conventional sounding reports, satellite images, and model data. The main purpose of this study is to explore a new way that will combine three sources data and give a statistical analysis on dynamic, thermodynamic, and environmental parameters correlation with severe weather in southeast China.
The present work uses a combination of three different data sources: three hourly surface conventional observations, hourly satellite images, six hourly NCEP grid data. After synoptic stations correlating with severe weather from three hourly conventional observations are selected, the nearly simultaneous satellite pixels, and NCEP grid data are matched in longitude and latitude. The severe weather reports include synoptic codes 17-19, 89-99 which are from weather region 57 in southeast China.
Some dynamic, thermodynamic, and environmental parameters are selected and calculated from three sources data which can depict development and evolution of severe convective weather. The parameter from the surface sounding reports is depression of the dew point which describes the temperature and moisture conditions in the surface air mass. The characteristics based on satellite pixels include the brightness temperatures (or reflections) of five channels and the brightness temperature differences between the infrared channels (IR1-IR2, IR1-WV, IR1-NIR, WV-NIR) from GOES-9. All these satellite information are from the top of convective clouds correlating with severe weather and have the ability to improve the analysis and prediction the development of deep convective clouds. The features selected and calculated from NCEP grid data include a thermodynamic parameter θse which is considered as a conservative characteristic of the energy transformation in the atmosphere, three instability indices CAPE, CIN, SI, RSH, which reveal the potential instability of convective environments and have been identified as being suitable for destabilisation and development of convective storms.
All the parameters above are statistically analyzed and the results show that combination with the depression of the dew point from surface reports and IR1-WV based on satellite pixels can discriminate the severe convective clouds and clear sky in the two-dimensional characteristic scatter figures. The high, thick, cold clouds (such as convective storms), with cloud tops possibly extending into the lower stratosphere, the 10.7μm TB is colder than that at 6.5μm, resulting in a positive TB difference between these bands, at the same time the depressions of the dew point of the low level air mass are near to saturation and the differences are very small. The combination TB of IR1 with θse or CIN depicts the thermodynamic and dynamic characteristics a conditionally unstable atmosphere or increasing the conditional instability of large quantities of air in the unstable environment. In fact, the characteristics from satellite images just describe the deep convective clouds whose tops penetrate to high level, it is hard to monitor and predict the initiation of severe convective weather correlating with small scale structure only using satellite remote sensing. At the different development processes of storms, especially in the period of initiation or for small scale cells, more effective methods combing other ways or parameters are proposed and the quantity criteria combing surface observations, satellite data and environment data are studied in the future work. And the cloud-cell dynamic, geometric features and motion features (such as rates of TB decrease, rate of TB isotherm expansion) will be added in development periods combing other parameters.
Extended Abstract (212K)
Poster Session 12, Severe Weather Climatology Posters
Thursday, 30 October 2008, 3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Madison Ballroom
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Browse or search entire meeting
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Venezuela's Foreign Affairs Minister Jorge Arreaza talks to the media during a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela. Reuters
The tense conversation came after Russia sent two planes reportedly carrying around 100 soldiers and 35 tons of military equipment to Venezuela's main airport outside Caracas on Saturday.
A flight-tracking website showed that two planes left from a Russian military airport bound for Caracas on Friday, and another flight-tracking site showed that one plane left Caracas on Sunday.
Opposition supporters thronged the streets of Caracas and other cities on Saturday in protest against the regime of President Nicolas Maduro, as massive blackouts and the collapse of water supplies further exacerbated a growing political crisis.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro replaced his electricity minister on Monday in a move to address a series of blackouts plaguing the country, while opposition leader Juan Guaido called on supporters to continue taking to the streets. Separately, Venezuela's chief justice on Monday asked lawmakers to strip opposition leader Juan Guaido of immunity, taking a step towards prosecuting
Human rights groups on Wednesday called on Southeast Asian leaders to rethink their approach to the Rohingya refugee crisis ahead of a regional summit in Bangkok this week.
The police arrested 12 Asians involved in the racket. The drugs were hidden in different areas of the country. Police said they also seized half a million captagon tablets.
Members of Hong Kong's legislature met on Wednesday for the first time since the largest anti-government protest in the city's history, with many opposition lawmakers slamming the pro-Beijing administration's


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How to Pick a Commercial Painter
With lots of commercial painters out there, it could take some time and money on your part before finding the best one who can address your issues and necessities. However, comprehending what makes the best painter will somehow make the search easier since you already have an idea of what to look for in commercial painters. A license is one of the essential things to look for in your painter. Enlisting an authorized painter means you are certain that their work is inside the models that are set by the essential specialist. With a licensed painter, you are guaranteed of getting satisfactory results. Another thing you have to look into before making any arrangement is the insurance of the company. Ensure that the painter has all the necessary insurances like public liability and the worker's compensation. Public liability effectively protects your property. If anything happens to the workers while they are working on your property, you will be spared of paying them as long as they have the worker's compensation insurance in place. Don't believe everything the painters tell you about the insurance, rather, request the details and the contact number of the insurance agency so you can make essential verifications.
When looking for proposals, it is insightful to get multiple of them. Contact the majority of the organizations in your rundown and request that they send you their quotations. The quotation should contain not only an expected expense of the painting venture but also other significant data. Ask them to include how long the job will take, the brand and type of paint that they will use, the payment terms and the conditions that they accept. Guarantee that you give a similar activity and specifications to every one of the contractors so that when they give you a quotation, they are for something very similar so that you can pass judgment on them reasonably. You should ask if the company will send their staff to do the job and not their subcontractors. It is good to see whether the company you are hiring has a uniform or a way that they can be identified. Contractors taking pride at this is an indication that they are good and are not scared of being identified because they realize that their works are largely attractive.
The affiliations of the commercial painters are another indication as to whether they are good or not. All the good painters are normally regular members of industry associations and this promises that their work will be satisfactory and efficient. You also need to request references from your chosen painter or contractor. You must be given contact details of their past customers or clients. Call the number and pose essential inquiries like if the painter has satisfactorily finished the activity on schedule, of the professionalism of the painters, and so on. If possible, inquire as to whether you may drop by the place so you can personally check and see the painting performed by the contractor. While interviewing your painter, get some information about the preparation procedures that will be done on the surfaces to be painted. It could be some minimal sanding on specific spots or sanding the entire area. The preparation will tell whether the job will be well done or not.
Case Study: My Experience With Experts


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Macmillan Cancer Care has received a £1,005 donation from a recent fundraiser organised by "Bellshill Auld Boys" Flute Band in the Imperial Function Suite. The band members would like to thank all who helped with the evening and everyone who attended, especially Diane Kerr, Scott Paton and DJ David Brown.
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Hope you like it as much as we did! ;)
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SoMe HD Fun with the camera ;)
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Hope you like it as much as we did! ;)
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BJ Fun with the CaMera :)
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Overhaul Fire Districts
June 6, 2019
Our current fire district taxing policy is both inequitable to our taxpayers and has the potential to present a safety issue.
The existing system has fire tax districts that have evolved over the years with little adjustment for changes in population densities or the addition of fire stations. These fire tax districts also serve as service areas. Unfortunately, the primary objective for the current geographical areas was to establish a tax base sufficient to generate funding for the individual fire department's budget rather than to provide the fastest response time for emergencies within the district.
I'm confident the area's residents would consider the primary objective for each fire district should be to provide the fastest response to an emergency. I would encourage our Board of Commissioners to request that new service districts should be identified that would structure the areas surrounding each fire department using the fastest response time for the residences served. By comparing the new boundaries with the current districts, they would quickly see how many residences would have their service improved. Admittedly, the numbers would change and the resulting tax contributions as well. But, options to more equitably produce tax revenue were presented in their recent workshop.
I suggest the board should strongly consider taking this opportunity to overhaul our fire district and service area district boundaries with much more effective and equitable replacements. The county would be a much better place to live as a result.
Bill Buford


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This is your a la carte fitness menu. You can pick and pay for only the services you choose:
- All Inclusive – Unlimited Group classes plus 24/7 Key Fob Access
- All Access Pass – 10 visit punch card
- Specialty Courses
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- Guest Passes / Drop-Ins
** Member Referral Program – see the bottom of this page.
All Inclusive Membership – $189 per month
- First month is $245 that includes Basics 101 – a $425 value*
- Unlimited CrossFit Classes
- 24/7 key fob access for independent exercise
- 20% off Active Duty or Student discount with current active duty or student ID. We need those who protect us strong and healthy.
* Mandatory Prerequisite of Basics 101 or 201 is required before group class participation.
**All membership fees are set up as an autopay in our online system unless otherwise noted.**
Basics Programs
$245 – Basics 101
4 60-75-minute sessions where you will learn both CrossFit and Kettlebell movements along with a workout in each of the sessions. Basics 101 is included with the first month of the All Inclusive Membership.
$80 – CrossFit/Kettlebell Basics Challenge
Already have experience with CrossFit and CrossFit Kettlebell and want to jump right into our group classes? Go through the Challenge where you will spend 60 minutes with one of the owners reviewing the required movements to make sure you can perform them with safe form and technique. We don't want you to get hurt.
This Basics Challenge session will have some coaching involved with it for your barbell, kettlebell, and body weight movements. Should we feel you would benefit from the full Basics program, we will roll your Challenge fee into the cost of the full Basics program and schedule the remaining Basics sessions.
Personal Training
Prices below are listed per person. Both 30 minute or 60 minutes sessions available.
- One on One – $50 / $80
- Pairs (2 on 1) – $45 / $55
- Triplets (3 on 1) – $40 / $50
- Small Group (4+ participants) – $35 / $40
CrossFit Kids
Basics – 1 time fee of $55 (optional one on one session to acclimate your child to the movements)
CrossFit Kids 10 class punch card – $109
Kids are automatically enrolled in a set class(es) schedule each week to ensure regular attendance and performance progress. Simply renew the punch card every 10 classes.
Specialty Courses
CrossFit Striking
Complete your 1 time CrossFit Striking Basics requirement prior to group class participation for only $40.
$25 per month auto-renewing membership
1 punch on your All Access Pass
$20 drop in for non-members
All Access Pass and Guest Passes/Drop-Ins
- All Access Pass – $159 for a 10 visit virtual punchcard to use towards classes or Guest Pass General Entry
- Guest Passes – 1 day or 1 week options for classes or Guest Pass General Entry
- 1 week (for out-of-towners) = $50
- 1 visit (Non-member rate) = $20
Nutrition Consultations – $100 p/month for macronutrient coaching
Earn Arenal Bucks by referring family and friends to our family and friends!!
How does it work?
For each one referral, you will receive a credit ) on your Arenal Fitness house account to use towards your future purchases for programs/services/membership dues of your choice.
You will receive a credit once your referred member has completed 3 continuous months of our All Inclusive Membership:
For example: Your friend joins and completes 3 continuous months of All Inclusive membership, you will receive a $189 credit on your house account.
How do you know who I referred to the program?
It's simple! Upon completing the registration process in our online system, there is a mandatory field entitled, "How Did You Learn About Us?". Your referred member will need to choose "Other" and then type your name into the text box that follows.
**One referral credit per new member. One time reinstatement referral credit permitted.


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It's the pose that launched a thousand quips — and burst a million zippers on gay Twitter. While playing with a quokka, an adorable marsupial from western Australia, Chris Hemsworth innocently(?) positioned himself in the classic power bottom pose: on all fours, back arched and ass in the air like a power bottom. He's done this sort of thing before. Maybe he knows exactly what kind of attention this is likely to attract. Keep scrolling to see some of the other times the God of Thunder accidentally or on purpose made us thirsty.
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Full-text links:
References & Citations
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High Energy Physics - Theory
Title: Universal shocks in random matrix theory
(Submitted on 12 Feb 2009)
Abstract: We link the appearance of universal kernels in random matrix ensembles to the phenomenon of shock formation in some fluid dynamical equations. Such equations are derived from Dyson's random walks after a proper rescaling of the time. In the case of the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble, on which we focus in this letter, we show that the orthogonal polynomials, and their Cauchy transforms, evolve according to a viscid Burgers equation with an effective "spectral viscosity" $\nu_s=1/2N$, where $N$ is the size of the matrices. We relate the edge of the spectrum of eigenvalues to the shock that naturally appears in the Burgers equation for appropriate initial conditions, thereby obtaining a new perspective on universality.
Submission historyFrom: Maciej A. Nowak [view email]
[v1] Thu, 12 Feb 2009 22:06:44 GMT (10kb)
Link back to: arXiv, form interface, contact.


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Design by South Coast Web© Deluxe Cruises 2019
Itinerary: Monte Carlo (Monaco), Marseille, Palma de Mallorca, Porto Mahon, Alghero, Calvi, Livorno, Civitavecchia - Rome (Italy)
Notes: Silversea Cruises operates a fluid pricing policy where prices can go up or down without notice.
Call Deluxe Cruises for up to date Silversea pricing and availability.
Ship Information
To enquire or book please call +44 (0)1202 767926
Alternatively, email your request to firstname.lastname@example.com