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One year ago, the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal — officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — reached by the P5+1, the EU, and Iran. The Trump administration subsequently adopted a new and more aggressive Iran policy that it dubbed the "maximum pressure" campaign, reimposing sanctions, labeling the Revolutionary Guard a foreign terrorist organization, and trying to drive Iran's oil exports to zero. Amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, we asked nine regional experts to assess the situation and answer one key question: Is the U.S. maximum pressure campaign working?
Karim Haggag
Karim Haggag
On US Iran policy, there's little coherence between means and ends
The difficulty in assessing the efficacy of the Trump administration's policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran lies in the seeming absence of any discernible U.S. endgame vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic. As such there seems to be little coherence between means (withdrawal from the JCPOA, tightening the sanctions regime to include oil sales and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and ends (rolling back Iran's regional influence and imposing more stringent controls on its nuclear program).
Although oil sanctions will no doubt exact a heavy economic toll, more than a decade of multilateral sanctions did not manage to halt the expansion of Iran's nuclear infrastructure and enrichment activities to the point of achieving a latent breakout capability. And while sanctions might force Tehran to curtail its level of material and financial support to its proxies, the escalating pressure will likely strengthen Iran's determination to consolidate its presence in the various theaters of conflict across the region: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.
Tellingly, the maximum pressure policy has not prompted a change in the administration's aversion to regional military adventurism. While U.S. policy is anchored in a worldview that sees much of the region's instability as originating in Tehran, the task of confronting Iran militarily is seemingly left to America's regional allies, as was indicated in Secretary Mike Pompeo's Cairo speech.
The objective of a negotiating process that would impose more stringent constraints on Iran's nuclear program seems to be similarly out of reach. Iran's adherence thus far to the JCPOA and the evisceration of any trust between Washington and Tehran make the prospect of a more expansive deal that would encompass Iran's missile arsenal and its regional posture highly unlikely.
The overall results of this policy are therefore likely to be mixed. What does seem certain, however, is that the conflict between Washington and Tehran has only become further entrenched, and has itself become a driver of regional instability. Ameliorating this conflict is a prerequisite for addressing the others in the region. Unfortunately, the policy of maximum pressure has only made this objective harder to achieve.
Karim Haggag is a professor of practice in the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo.
Barbara Slavin
Barbara Slavin
A cruel and counterproductive Iran policy that risks escalation
For a year, the Trump administration has been able to have its baklava and eat it too when it comes to the Iran nuclear deal. However, on May 8th Iran signaled that its forbearance is coming to an end, giving the other parties to the agreement 60 days to find reliable ways to trade with Iran or it will begin to exceed limits on its nuclear program. By seeking to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero, the U.S. has seriously miscalculated. It has pushed Iran into a deep recession after several years of growth. But this "maximum pressure" policy has so far not compelled Iran to pull back from regional interventions, free American prisoners, or stop repressing the Iranian population. Now a new nuclear crisis looms, years before restrictions on Iran's program were due to sunset.
One reason U.S. policy seems doomed to fail is that it conflates behavior change and regime change. By flirting with the latter and constantly questioning the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, the Trump administration has provided zero incentive for Iran to negotiate a new and more concessionary set of understandings with the United States. It is also doubtful that economic pressures will incentivize Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime. People struggling every day for survival rarely have the energy to revolt, especially in a region where popular uprisings have led to prolonged civil strife and ruinous foreign intervention. Iranians also remember how their 1979 revolution turned out and prefer evolutionary change to violent upheaval.
Iranian officials had seemed willing to wait out a single Trump term in hopes that a successor administration would return to the 2015 nuclear deal or at least seek new negotiations on more realistic terms. However, now Iran's patience is ending and it is seeking more leverage for future talks. Chances for U.S.-Iran conflict are also rising given the proximity of U.S. troops to Iran-backed forces in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, as well as the Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa.
Barbara Slavin is director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Alex Vatanka
Alex Vatanka
Tehran seems willing to talk, but not from a position of weakness
It took the Iranians exactly one year to respond to President Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. On May 8th, Tehran announced it will suspend parts of its cooperation and gave the other remaining signatories (China, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK) 60 days to make the agreement workable for all parties. While Iran stayed in the deal the U.S. has piled on new sanctions, crushing the Iranian economy. Thanks to the threat of U.S. secondary sanctions, Iran's oil customers have abandoned it and its oil exports have fallen from around 2.5 million bpd in May 2018 to under 1 million today.
Iran desperately needed to get itself out of this bind, but without giving the Trump administration any pretext for a military conflict. Over the course of the last year, the catchphrase in Tehran was to avoid the "American trap," meaning that Iran had to stay both in the nuclear agreement and remain committed to the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT). And yet, as the impact of the sanctions increased, Tehran needed to regain some leverage. With its partial suspension, Tehran is hoping to do just that. It is staying in the framework of the nuclear deal but with the hope that its threat to suspend its participation in 60 days' time — unless progress is finally made — will force the Europeans in particular to buy Iranian oil, the mainstay of its economy. From Tehran's perspective, this partial suspension is aimed at calling not only Trump's bluff, but also Europe's. Tehran appears reasonably sure that Trump has no appetite for war and has been pursuing a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran at a small cost to Washington. The Europeans are committed to the nuclear deal in words, but not sufficiently in actions — or at least that's what the Iranians seem to think.
Iran still hasn't found a way out from this conundrum though, which is inextricably linked to the 40-year history of U.S.-Iranian hostilities. When Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was in the U.S. recently, he signaled Iran's desire for negotiations with the Trump administration. Initially, the Iranians had believed the Trump presidency to be an aberration and opted to wait him out. They now realize there is a strong chance he will be re-elected in 2020. Given the severe impact of sanctions, and given that Europe, China, and Russia are mostly unable to do anything about American pressure on Iran, Tehran sees talking to Trump as humiliating but preferable to risking six more years of American pressure. While Zarif was in the U.S., some prominent officials in Tehran — including Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, and Qassem Soleimani, the infamous Revolutionary Guards general — dismissed the idea of talking to Trump as a "strategic mistake" and "humiliation," respectively. Such remarks are probably also aimed at maintaining pressure on Washington. Zarif would have never come to New York if he did not have a message from the leadership in Tehran to deliver to the Trump administration. All in all, Tehran seems willing to talk to Trump, but not from a position of weakness, hence its decision to partially suspend its nuclear commitments. Much, of course, will depend on Washington's next move.
Alex Vatanka is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and specializes in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a focus on Iran.
Mark Dubowitz
Mark Dubowitz
So far, US policy seems to be working, albeit unevenly
The Trump administration has pursued an Iran policy based on the use of all instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic, and military deterrence — to stop Tehran from engaging in a wide array of aggressive and malign behaviors that defy global norms. So far, it seems to be working, albeit unevenly.
The most successful part of the strategy has been the reinstatement of sanctions. Scores of foreign investors, including major multinationals, are abandoning the Iranian market. The IMF and World Bank now forecast a deepening recession. The value of the rial is plummeting while inflation skyrockets. Oil exports have fallen from 2.5 million bpd to under 1 million bpd, costing the regime billions at a time when it is desperate for hard currency. Tehran is slashing transfer payments to its surrogates like Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite militias, and the Assad regime.
Economic pressure is rising in spite of European efforts to salvage the nuclear deal by preserving economic incentives for Tehran, including setting up special purpose vehicles for international payments, resisting the expulsion of Iran from the SWIFT financial messaging system, and deterring compliance with U.S. sanctions by activating a blocking statue. So far, these efforts have had limited impact.
The administration's strategy to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East looked like it was on life support thanks to President Donald Trump's withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. After a sustained backlash, he has partially walked back his promise of a full troop withdrawal. Trump's principal advisers recognized that the presence of U.S. forces in Syria denied key terrain and natural resources to Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, and the Assad regime, while costing the U.S. relatively little in terms of blood and treasure.
The administration is strengthening its regional posture. It has provided strong support for Israel to destroy Iranian military infrastructure in Syria. It also has moved an aircraft carrier strike group and bomber task force to the region in response to intelligence that Tehran is planning attacks against U.S. assets or allies. The credible threat of overwhelming force is essential to effective deterrence to prevent further Iranian escalation.
The Trump administration's Iran policy suffers from a lack of bipartisan support. If Democrats retake the White House in 2020, the new president is likely to re-enter the JCPOA and suspend sanctions once again, though he or she will face the prospect of key restrictions on Iran's nuclear, missile, and military programs lapsing during their first and second terms.
With the designation of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, the push to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, and other planned steps, the Trump administration, with support from Republicans in Congress, is moving to build a wall of deterrence to keep companies out of Iran even if a new president tries to lift sanctions as part of a reentry into the JCPOA.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may decide to play for time, hoping for Trump's defeat in 2020. But with sanctions biting and the economy in turmoil, Tehran may now welcome a diplomatic process whose purpose is to blunt the "maximum pressure" campaign.
Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based nonpartisan policy institute, where he leads projects on Iran, sanctions, and nonproliferation.
Ruba Husari
Ruba Husari
Maximum pressure will bite, but Iran will weather the storm
In launching a campaign of "maximum pressure" against Iran to force it to change its policies, oil came to be the weapon of first resort for the Trump administration. The aim was — and still is — to inflict maximum damage by hitting directly at Tehran's coffers that finance what the U.S. considers hostile regional activities. But oil is a problematic weapon, and the results so far are not decisive.
A few months after re-imposing sanctions against Tehran, waivers had to be applied to a handful of buyers to shelter certain foreign policy priorities and objectives from the impact of using the oil weapon against Iran, especially big buyers of Iranian crude such as China and India. Manipulating the oil market by forcing a cut in supply has a domestic cost too; gasoline prices at the pump inevitably climbed higher. Yet, on balance, Iran still managed to sell around 50% of its pre-November 2008 oil exports between November and April.
In stepping up the maximum pressure campaign by eliminating the waivers on April 22, the U.S. hopes to rely on U.S. and Mideast Gulf oil production to mitigate the impact of the stricter zero Iranian oil exports policy. That's not straightforward to achieve either though. First, there's the issue of crude grade. U.S. crudes are on the light side while the targeted Iranian barrels are more of the medium and heavy quality. Second, OPEC producers, especially Saudi Arabia, which has the biggest chunk of spare capacity, have their own priorities. Riyadh has already made clear it will not increase supply in response to oil price jumps on U.S. policy announcements, but only when the fundamentals warrant it, i.e. when it determines there is an actual shortage of wet barrels on the market.
Defiant Iran insists it will find ways to continue exporting its oil to thwart the most recent measures. Just as 40% of Iranian crude exports were shipped "off radar" in the past six months, a ruse Iran has excelled at by switching off transponders on tankers at sea to avoid satellite tracking, there will likely be more of these stealthy crude shipments in the coming months. Add to that the perfection of the art of smuggling, or the "grey market," as Iranian oil officials call it. That makes Iran dependent on traders and companies not big enough to worry about being penalized by the U.S. financial system.
It will be a tall order for Iran to try to keep its economy afloat on oil revenue but Iranian crude exports will certainly not go down to zero. Maximum pressure will bite but will not achieve the objective of the exercise; the Iranian regime will not collapse because it's exporting less oil, nor is it about to withdraw political leverage it has built over many years in the region.
Ruba Husari is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and the managing director of OZME Consultants, a Dubai-based advisory and consultancy firm focusing on the oil and gas sector in Iraq and the Gulf region.
Mohammed Shummary
Mohammed Shummary
For Iran, the cost of confrontation is less than that of bowing to US pressure
The Iranians believe that the agreement they reached with U.S. and other powers in 2015 represents the maximum of what Iran can offer while maintaining its regional standing. They also believe that the Trump administration doesn't seek to reach a fair agreement that won't humiliate the Islamic Republic. They frequently evoke the experiences of Iraq, Libya, and Sudan regarding weapons of mass destruction, which made clear that making concessions will not protect their regime. Therefore, they refuse to return to the negotiating table and think that the U.S. should respect existing international commitments.
On the one hand, with Israel being a technologically advanced nuclear power, backed by the U.S., and in light of ideological considerations, the Iranians think that there is a need to find a strategic balance that preserves the Islamic Republic's regime. Given the multilateral threats they face in the region, such as the U.S. military presence, tensions with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council's significant weapons arsenal, and the Turkish military's weight, having an equivalent arsenal and military capabilities is essential for Iran's national security.
On the other hand, Iran's regional role, as realized by its decision-makers, has an ideological basis, including defending Shiites. This is integral to Iran's aspirations to play a leading role in the region, and its close relations with groups and forces throughout the Middle East are an extension of this.
The American pressure campaign is seen by Iranians not only as a threat to their security and interests, but also as an effort to humiliate them, which does not fit with the Iranian character. For them, the cost of confrontation will be less than the cost of bowing to that pressure. It is difficult to predict the consequences of the current escalation, and one cannot rule out the possibility of a military confrontation, in light of the policies of pressure and brinkmanship adopted by the two sides, which could blow up and result in a direct or indirect confrontation.
Mohammed Shummary is a lecturer in the College of Political Science at al-Nahrain University in Baghdad.
Przemyslaw Osiewicz
Przemyslaw Osiewicz
Dashed hopes and new threats for the EU and Iran
Iran's withdrawal from some provisions of the JCPOA has put European powers in a tough spot. The U.S. administration has criticized the European attitude toward the Iranian regime for a long time, and now it seems that President Donald Trump and Secretary Mike Pompeo may say: "We told you so." Yet the Iranian decision was triggered by the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions last year, not by any political decision on the part of the EU and its members.
It was the EU, or more precisely France and Germany, that did whatever they could to save the JCPOA in 2018. They even set up a special channel for transactions with Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions. Although EU officials can blame the U.S. administration for the current crisis, it does not change the fact that the Europeans and Iranians will pay the highest price for it. If there were a military intervention in Iran, its consequences would affect Europe both politically and economically.
The EU will likely wait for the other JCPOA signatories to react, particularly Russia and China, and for the time being Brussels' actions will be limited to political statements condemning the decision. The most likely scenario is that all permanent members of the UN Security Council will try to exert more diplomatic pressure on Iran. China and Russia will at least pretend that they intend to support the Europeans in this case, although in reality they do not have to do that. What is more, such actions would not be convergent with their interests. The worse relations between Western powers and Iran are, the better for the Chinese and Russians.
Przemyslaw Osiewicz is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and an associate professor at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, Poland, specializing in EU policy toward the MENA region, Iran, and Turkey.
Gönül Tol
Gönül Tol
US policy puts Turkey in a tough spot
The U.S. strategy to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran puts Turkey in a difficult position. As a country that has close trade and energy ties to Iran, Turkey has always been critical of the Trump administration's decision to slap sanctions on Iran. Washington's decision not to reissue waivers in May allowing importers, including Turkey, to buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions has further fueled the dispute between the two NATO partners. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu recently announced that Turkey and Iran are working to establish a new trade mechanism to bypass U.S. sanctions. At a time of increasing pressure from Washington, both Iran and Turkey see each other as important partners. The frequency of high-level visits between Turkish and Iranian officials and Iran's effort to tone down its pressure on Turkey over the Idlib question underscore the importance of maintaining cooperation despite U.S. pressure in both capitals.
During a recent visit to Tehran, Turkish Minister of Transport Mehmet Cahit Turhan reiterated Turkey's desire to triple bilateral trade and said the U.S. sanctions cannot change Turkey-Iran relations. But the figures show they already have. Despite the defiant tone, Turkey has been complying with the sanctions regime. It has curbed its oil imports from Iran since May 2018, when the U.S. decided to withdraw from the JCPOA. The challenge now is to find an alternative source of oil. Russia and Iraq are the two main options, but they pose other challenges. Both are costly, Turkish-Iraqi energy partnership is complicated due to Ankara's 2014 decision to allow the Iraqi Kurds to export their oil independently of Baghdad, and purchasing more oil from Russia would make Turkey even more dependent on Moscow at a time when the West is already worried about Moscow-Ankara ties.
The U.S. decision to double down on its efforts to isolate the Iranian regime comes at a time when the Turkish economy is struggling and the U.S. is threatening sanctions over Ankara's decision to purchase the Russian S-400 missile defense system, leaving Turkey little room to maneuver. It cannot afford to take on the U.S. amid an economic recession and with a diplomatic crisis looming on the horizon.
Gönül Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute's Center for Turkish Studies.
Eran Etzion
Eran Etzion
For Israel the glass is three-quarters full
Washington's "maximum pressure" doctrine might just as well have been designed in Tel Aviv — in fact, according to critics, it may have partially been. It certainly aligns perfectly with Israel's interests and with newly-elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political agenda. Israel sees itself as a full partner in this strategy, and all of the state's assets are working diligently to implement it.
The official Israeli narrative, in sync with America's, outlines the goal as "pushing Iran back to the negotiating table," broadening the scope of the deal to include non-nuclear issues like long-range missiles and support for terrorism, and driving Iran and its various proxies, first and foremost Lebanese Hezbollah, out of Syria.
When it comes to U.S. Iran policy one year on, Israel sees a glass three-quarters full. Sanctions are in place, Iran's economy is badly hurt, oil prices are in check, multiple Iranian entities have been designated (including the infamous Quds Force), and the Europeans — who have been "designated" as almost enemies of the Jewish state, mainly due to their defiance of U.S. Iran policy — have not been able to effectively circumvent the sanctions and compensate for their damage.
The level of confrontation between Israel and Iran also remains under control, both in Syria and in the Gaza Strip. However, it's worth noting that the last round of violence in Gaza was triggered by Iran's proxy, Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The empty quarter of the glass consists of the fact that there is no indication that the strategy's stated goal is actually being achieved. Iran shows no sign of returning to the negotiating table. In fact, it has just signaled a partial withdrawal from the JCPOA.
The question that Israel and its American patron will have to wrestle with is: Is there a maximum to the maximum pressure doctrine? Is there a point at which it will be reviewed?
Israel's real answer — which won't be announced — is that there is no such point. Traditionally, confusing means and ends is not alien to Israel's strategic planning. In this case too, sanctions will suffice as an end in themselves.
Eran Etzion is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, founder of the Yashar Party, and former Israeli deputy national security advisor.


text: Filmed May 2014 at Didcot station. Lots of freight trains from EWS, freightliner, colas and GBRF. a test train with yellow loco 31465. Freight includes cars, oil, departmental, wagonload and freightliner. From Dagenham a load of Ford Minibuses all going to the Glasgow commonwealth games with the logos on the sides. Going into the railway centre a Deltic 55002, 50026, D6700, 47292, and a class 41, also HSTS and Class 165. All railway films are filmed on location and produced and edited in The United Kingdom, using quality video cameras and editing equipment providing all our viewers with hours of high quality DVD's.

subset: commoncrawl


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The Box Office Report – December 30-January 1
Last week, in Box Office…
In what shocked the shit out of everyone, Tom Cruise stood up and said, "Fuck y'all, I'm still a badass motherfucker at the box office."
Okay, so maybe he didn't say that. He said, "I can go back to my well really well. And my movie made $46 million, so I can rhyme well with well. Do something."
Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (I hope you're all appreciative of the fact that I get the punctuation right every time for your benefit when trying to repeat it.) made $29.5 million. And this is after it opened really strong last week. Everyone is amazed at how this happened. Some blame Scientology. I, honestly, blame no one, since this was actually a really entertaining film, and was everything a Mission: Impossible film should be. So let it make the money. It's well on its way to recovering its budget back. It has currently pulled in about $95 million so far (off a budget of around $150 million. Not to mention pulling in almost $200 million worldwide so far).
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows finished second for the weekend, with $20.3 million. Still pretty strong for it. I'm not sure why they're considering this such a failure. "Oh no, it only made $40 million instead of $60 million! We're fucked
a dinosaur's story! It's crossed $100 million domestically already. Disappointment, my ass!
Finishing third, in what they're actually calling a disappointment, was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. It made $12.8 million, and is currently sitting at $32.5 million (budget was $90 million). I saw this in theaters, and it was fucking great. How great, you'll find out tomorrow, when I release my top ten list. I expect this to have legs, simply because so many people have read the book, and because the movie's so fucking good (and this is coming from someone who loved the Swedish version).
Finishing fourth was Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, which made another $12.6 million (maybe that's why Sony was upset about Dragon Tattoo. They almost got beat by CGI vermin). It's currently at $70 million (which is almost its budget), which means, get ready for #4 in three years!
The Adventures of Tintin opened fifth to $9.7 million. This was expected, right? Ever so slightly soft, but still within expectations. This is an international franchise and not an American one. Americans will only go see the sequel once they see how enjoyable this one is. (And even then, I doubt it.) Case and point: $31.8 million domestically, currently. Worldwide? $239 million. That's where all the money is, people.
We Bought a Zoo opened sixth to $9.4 million. Don't think that's a weak number. This movie has actually been doing crazy good business all week. $9.4 million Friday-Sunday, right? And that's Christmas weekend. Right now, the film has made about $23.4 million Which means about $14 million Monday-Wednesday. You can't judge Christmas films by how much they make that first weekend. They'll still make money, just nontraditionally (which is sad that traditionally is actually the tradition).
War Horse opened on Sunday — get this — just Sunday (whereas everything else had Friday and Saturday, and some even Wednesday and Thursday) to $7.5 million. Wow. It made another $7 million on Monday, and is currently sitting at about $22 million, and that's without a full weekend. That is incredible.
Nothing else was even close to $5 million. (Seriously. The Darkest Hour was hovering around $3 million. Nothing else came close.)
So, that brings us to this week, and the new releases…
Guess what? There aren't any. Surprise, surprise. They're gonna let all last week's movies make all their money now. Which makes sense. (And dollars.)
The only film opening of note is The Iron Lady, the film most people are assuming will get Meryl another "Gimme" Oscar, even though reviews are saying she's really the only good thing about the film. (Big fucking surprise there.) It's only in 4 theaters, though, so do what the rest of us will do and watch it online.
Also opening is A Separation, which I only mention because I saw it on the list and am watching it as I write this article. It's a really great Iranian film about a couple going through a divorce. Roger Ebert (smartly. Way to get it some press, man. This is how you use your influence for good) ranked it as his #1 film of the year. What makes it so good is how it's so universal, despite being set in a completely different culture and in a completely different language. It's Iran's entry for Best Foreign Language Film, and knowing how I know the Oscars, it will not be nominated. That's how good it is. It's really worth checking out, and I'll be pulling for it. Definitely one of the better films of the year.
Okay, so, holdovers…
Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol is expected to win the weekend again. Everyone's saying the totals will go up now. Is that probable? I don't follow the box office that closely to know if more people go post-Christmas, but if that's the case, all right. I don't really care so much. I'm in the middle of my year recap stuff, so for me this is really just bookkeeping. It's expected to do around $30 million for the weekend. All right.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is expected to do low 20s, around $21-23 million. Again — all right.
Alvin and the Chipmunks is also expected around $20 million. (Most people have this going over War Horse, but honestly — with those totals, how can you think that? I don't see how War Horse doesn't come close to winning the weekend. But honestly, I'm not really paying that much attention, so I can't make that educated a guess about it.)
War Horse is expected to be around $15-17 million. I can't see how it doesn't go higher, but whatever.
I expect The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to do plus business, and I think others are as well. They're figuring around $15-16 million for it.
Tintin is expected to do around $12-13 million for the weekend.
We Bought a Zoo is expected to do around $12-13 million as well.
This is one of those weekends where I don't see how people can really gauge based on the tracking. I think it's one of those — wait and see what people do, and what people really want to see (outside of the top two films. Since those are action, and everyone goes to them anyway because that's what they're told they want to see) will rise out of the pack. Like last year with True Grit.
No one really cares about anything else, much like last week. No one figures anything but these films will make any money.
As you can see, I really don't care about the numbers this week, since almost every film out (save Chipmunks, but even that's past the point of no return. They've already made enough to greenlight a sequel anyway, so who cares at this point?) is a good film that deserves some money. So I hope they all do well.
Next week, I continue to hold onto the good of 2011 as the shit of 2012 (shit meaning terrible, and not as a replacement for "stuff") starts to come out.
Oh boy…


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Week Beginning 17th December
We hope you like the decorations we are making for our Christmas trees.
Week Beginning 10th December
We are continuing to use the Jolly Christmas Postman book in our English lessons.
We made story maps for the postman's journey.
We wrote captions for various pictures from the story.
We pretended to be either Little Red Riding Hood or Humpty Dumpty; we wrote thank you letters for the gifts that they received.
We wrote descriptions of the different characters.
Week Beginning 3rd December
Christmas has arrived in 1BB!
We are taking part in a wide range of Christmas related activities.
These include decorating our class tree, retelling the Christmas story with the Nativity figures and puppets, making snowflakes and using our imagination to make up stories for our small world characters.


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An interesting article by Dwijendra Tripathi, former Prof at IIMA. Prof Tripathi is the pioneer of chronicling India's business history. It is really sad we hardly get to read and hear more of his works.
Anyways, in this piece he writes on Jamsetji Tata. Why is he still revered after so many years? He had three qualities which continues to shape today's Tata values and also has lessons for others:


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Food with JP Passion: Rustle up a risotto
By JP Kennedy
John Paul Kennedy is a self-taught cook and an avid fan of collecting cookery books with a passion for good old-fashioned home cooking. his passion for proper family cooking stems from his TWO Grandmothers, who were both excellent cooks, one of whom was a trained chef. JP promises to bring us plenty of family-inspired recipes and tasty treats while showing us how to get the basics right.
My brother Gavin, who lives with me, has always pestered me to make him a risotto.
So, in the past few months I gave into his pleas, researched a recipe which is both quick and delicious, cooked it and we both fell in love with it.
Normally when making a risotto you are required to slowly add the stock one ladle at a time, but with this recipe you don't need to, you simply add the stock all in one go! Another quick and easy supper which is perfect for this time of year as we approach the darker cold evenings.
A bowl of this delicious risotto on a cold autumn / winter evening is like a hug in a bowl.
This is also a great recipe for using up leftovers such as roast chicken, bacon etc.
Chicken Bacon & Pea Risotto
Ingredients – Serves 4
4 cooked chicken fillets
1 onion
1 teaspoon garlic powder
250g good quality arborio risotto rice
100ml white wine (If no wine you can use water)
1 litre of chicken stock
200g frozen peas
2 tsp of rapeseed oil
100g pancetta bacon
75g grated Parmesan
25g unsalted butter
Freshly ground black pepper
1. Heat the oil in a large non stick frying pan, add the onion, garlic and fry until nice and soft and begging to colour
2. Add the risotto rice and stir well to ensure every grain of the rice is coated well
3. Pour in half the wine, bubble for 1 minute, then add all the stock. Bring to a boil, stirring constantly. Then reduce the heat and simmer for 10 minutes, stirring often until the rice is tender and creamy in appearance
4. Add the remaining wine, chicken and frozen peas, stirring constantly, and cook for another 5 minutes
5. Fry off the pancetta in a little oil until nice and crispy
6. Then remove the pan from the heat, add the butter, Parmesan cheese and bacon pieces. Season with black pepper and cover the pan with a lid and allow to sit for 5 minutes, then serve and enjoy in a large serving bowl.
This is the kind of simple but delicious food I love to prepare at this time of year. I'm a huge fan of dishes that can be cooked in one pan and served in a bowl comfy and cosy curled up on the couch. This recipe goes a long way and leftovers are perfect for lunch the next day. You can of course adapt this recipe and include your favourite ingredients to make mushrooms or tomato and buffalo mozzarella risotto. Regardless of what you choose for this staple go-to risotto recipe, I'm confident it will quickly become one of your favourite go-to suppers. Hope you enjoy this recipe.
Contact Jp on:
Twitter: @JPKCooking
Instagram: jpkennedy.kennedy


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Michele is an associate attorney with the firm focusing on all aspects of real estate. She is from Pennsylvania and moved to Delaware in 2006. She obtained her undergraduate degrees from Wesley College (B.A., English) (B.S., Legal Studies) while playing basketball and softball. Michele earned her law degree from Widener University School of Law (J.D.). While in law school, Michele worked full time as a paralegal for the Department of Justice, Criminal Division, in Kent County.
Michele is admitted to practice law in the courts of the State of New Jersey and the State of Delaware.
E-mail: email@example.com
Telephone: (302) 645-2262
Fax: (302) 644-0306


text: HunnyBunz 13 Posted March 12, 2014 Rules: just play fair. be treated how you want to be treated pranks are fine, i wont tell you how to play minecraft, just play the way you would want others to play with you. this server will be based on the honors system, thats why its whitelisted. application: age... how often will you play on the server? are you willing to play fair? will you respect other players and their stuff/ builds? a little information about the server... this server is largely based off of mindcrack. I want to be able to trust the players on my server, thats why its whitelisted, there are NO plugins or for anti cheating or anti griefing etc... the server is hosted by mcprohosting so it will be online 99% of the time and runs with no lag whatsoever. there are NO ranks. everybody is equal on this server. i just made this server to have fun with other players... i expect you to be respectful and HAVE FUN. if you want to be added to the whitelist, post your application below, and i will give you the IP, however if you refuse to play respectfully, you will be banned. . 13 UndoubtedKhaos, Bananatron, MrStickyStick and 10 others reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites


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text: Debbie is the best there is. She knows a ton about things to look for when buying a house and is always looking out for her clients. When we first moved (we moved twice in the last year), she was the only agent who would even show us a rental property. Debbie went out of her way to help us, so we used her when we purchased a home. The process was painless. She is a great negotiator and always had our best interests at heart. I don't have enough good things to say about her.


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Read what British Heart Foundation's Rosemary Brown, m/SIX's Yang Bo, Nationwide's Will Booth, Starcom's Amy Kean, GroupM's Adam Smith and PHD's Demi Abiola took away from Newsworks' sixth annual conference.
On Tuesday 27 February, marketers, publishers and planners gathered at the British Museum for Newsworks' 2018 Shift conference. Sessions covered the role of behavioural science in marketing, the City's view on short-termism and whether we as an industry are neglecting the importance of context.
Here's what delegates took away from the morning:
senior marketing managerBritish Heart Foundation
It was worth going to Shift 2018 just for the chance to visit the British Museum AND be able to say that you are working. On the way to the loos (in Africa) I discovered that the ancient Chinese were amazingly adept at carving jade in Neolithic times...
My highlights of an info-packed morning include:
Back to top.
global head of strategic innovationStarcom
In this current climate of grey and stormy digital backlash, Newsworks' Shift 2018 conference was a breath of fresh air. Across a morning of (60% female!) panels and speeches we learned that creativity is alive and kicking, newsbrands are getting serious on Snapchat and Theresa May may not be a real robot, but it's very funny to call her one.
The focus of the day – for me – was how we can make planning the industry art it once was. The term 'strategy' can be subjective. Sometimes when people talk about 'strategy' what they really mean is 'planning', and sometimes when they talk about 'planning', what they really mean is 'putting some things in some spaces' or at its worst: 'pressing a button.' Well, perhaps that's an exaggeration, but the general consensus is that over the last few years as an industry we've been somewhat reliant on programmatic as an effective, audience-first approach, while thoughtful planning has taken a back seat. Favouring bid models over beautiful hand-picked spaces.
Starcom's Eva Grimmett suggested in an excellent panel on the 'where' of media planning that marketers have become so obsessed with the right time that they've forgotten that the right place can elicit a far more positive response in the audience. Now is the time for change, she believes, and I'm pretty sure the rest of the industry concurs.
Hotelplan UK's Louise Newton had a further positive perspective for the wider industry. As spend in digital has been slightly scaled back over the last 12 months, she's noted a resurgence in news brand-building, especially within the supplements. And Wavemaker's David Graham, former digital lead both client-side at Coca-Cola and agency-side for the Havas Group, said that until recently planners have been almost apologetic about proposing print and TV on a plan. However the tide is turning, Graham says, and we're starting to see genuinely confident, multi-channel, integrated plans on the horizon.
Perhaps the problem is that in the last 10 or 20 years we've been planning medium-first, not behaviour first? Richard Shotton's excellent presentation on behavioural science reminded us that no matter how complicated technology becomes, people will always behave in patterns, they cling to social groups, they develop uniform psychosocial rationalisation techniques and you know what? Clever people have been studying all this for centuries! People are more addicted to mobile phones these days, sure, but the fundamentals of human behavior have not changed. So, as long as planning remains focused on human patterns and not cost or speed as a primary consideration, the media industry has a very bright future indeed, and I hope to see the shift very soon.
Back to top.
strategy directorm/SIX
Another fantastic event hosted by Newsworks, bringing together different opinions in the national news industry. The focus on what short-termism means for our industry hugely resonated, along with the challenges we face currently.
It was particularly interesting to hear the view of Catherine O'Neill from Citi on why marketing is increasingly focused on driving short-term results and how it could have detrimental effects in the future. The need to start reframing what we measure and agreeing those measurements with ultimate stakeholders is clearly key for brands to survive in the long term. Great to hear that even the numbers guys in the City have agreed that it pays back more to support bigger brands. Perhaps the start of a turning point for what and how advertising is deployed.
Another highlight for me was Richard Shotton's very engaging talk on the science and psychology behind consumer choice. As a strategist, I love a story that gets to the heart of why we humans behave as we do and how there are often no rational reasons for our behaviours! In an increasingly automated world, it was refreshing to be reminded that sometimes the act of going back to fundamental human behaviours can make a real change.
futures directorGroupM
We are agents, but not ciphers. We are, as Wavemaker's David Graham remarked, strategists whose job is to help our clients manage risk. Manage means right size, not minimise. Starcom's Eva Grimmett prefers 'appropriate' to 'safe'. 'Manage' and 'appropriate' reveal a world not of black-and-white, but shades of grey. Not binary, but analogue. I took a similar message from Richard Shotton: amid human caprice, we seek in vain for immutable truths, so let us not waste time so doing.
Catherine O'Neill argued inconveniently that short-termism shows every sign of prevailing long-term: a variant of the cliché than change is the only constant. Resistance is futile. It is just one more thing to add to our risk register.
The panel in the first session aimed to put the 'where' back into planning: a call to restore 'neutrality' or 'agnosticism' or whatever the present label is. Vanessa Clifford, Newsworks' CEO, rightly urged us to abandon fixating on whether the 'where' is paper or screen. Another 'where' is the mind of the consumer: it is here brands assume shape and meaning. Everything else is therefore proxies in service to this, which we prioritise on circumstantial evidence that will never be complete. We could and should make it as complete as we can, though it will always remain an aid to thought, not a substitute for.
assistant manager, media teamNationwide
Newsworks' 2018 Shift event was focused on putting the 'where' back into media planning. In her introduction, CEO Vanessa Clifford raised a thought provoking scenario: she said that if she'd read a good book, the first question wouldn't be to ask what format the book was in. This essentially distilled the whole offline/online argument down to the quality of the content. This sounds simple but I think that it is a key point, which is often overlooked in the hubbub of the media planning stage.
The first speaker, Catherine O'Neill from Citi, highlighted the effects of focusing on short-term financial results and operating a zero-based budget. Where brand spend is seen as an additional cost on product sales, companies are not as profitable in the long-term compared to long-term orientated firms. She also said that investors are now starting to be more concerned about online marketing as its effectiveness is at times hard to substantiate.
The common theme of the event was that there is a growing need to appreciate where your brand is being seen online. Ensuring that our advertising is seen in the right context is vital and it is clear that brands must strive towards purchasing 'premium quality' digital media space in the same way that we would with traditional print.
It might be more 'efficient' and cheaper to purchase the recommended online media space, however, besides being lazy, this approach does not take context into account and potentially places a brand's advert in an unsafe, low quality environment. In other words, not all digital media is the same, thus making like for like cost comparisons between media owners even harder.
Newsworks and GroupM are currently researching the impact of context on the effectiveness of display advertising and early results show that there is a strong correlation between advert engagement and recall when a display advert is shown in a 'quality' context as opposed to a normal context.
The problem is that the growing fragmentation of media channels makes due diligence harder for brands to achieve. Every growth of advertising opportunities also present new threats that we may not have anticipated. This is how newsbrands can help advertisers, by providing them with access to trusted media owners, regardless of format.
publishing directorPHD
Shift 6.0 has once again reinforced the importance of newsbrands in curating and disseminating information for society's benefit, while providing unrivalled commentary and setting the cultural agenda.
Newsbrands' key virtues of effectiveness, engagement, influence and trust continue to show that they remain a powerful medium in a multi-channel world, in which we are increasingly shifting towards understanding the importance of context.
The serendipitous timing of Shift is apt as there continues to be discussion about brand safety, metrics and fraud within the digital sphere and the implications this has for brands – most recently highlighted by Unilever's Keith Weed.
The "where" is resonating and gaining importance with brands. Louise Newton from Hotelplan UK demonstrated this in regard to the travel business, which she believes is seeing a shift away from digital and towards more contextual based advertising.
In addition, newsbrands continue to play a vital part in Britain's cultural zeitgeist. Vanessa Clifford, Newsworks' CEO, touched on this in her opening remark's with reference to the Daily Mirror's campaign on changing organ law donation.
Meanwhile, short-termism was addressed by two of the speakers - Catherine O Neill and Richard Shotton.
Catherine summarised empirical evidence (particularly since 2014) that shows that cuts to brand investment actually damage market share and further exacerbate business declines - whereas continuing spend on brand support helps continued growth. However short-termism is not going away and marrying the short and long-term is important.
Richard illustrated the affect anchoring can have on human behaviour by showing us the greatest trick a brand has ever pulled, citing De Beers' example of a suggested month's salary for an engagement ring and associating the durability of love on that basis.
We are setting ourselves short-term targets and delivering against them, however are we feeding it using the metrics on offer? It may not be helping with the underlying issue of long-term growth. We certainly don't want to start releasing more Cobra's into the wild…
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Let me make a bold prediction.
Democratic nominee Dr. Rich Carmona will be elected Arizona's next United States Senator on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012; and it will be the Latino community that gives him the critical margin of victory.
This victory will change our democracy for the better.
In many ways Arizona has become the ground zero for the next evolution of our nation's political dynamics. Long regarded as a safe "Red State," demographic destiny has been playing its silent and inevitable hand shifting the equation in Arizona away from xenophobic rabble-rousers and their divisiveness.
With the Carmona statewide victory, the hateful rhetoric and actions of Joe Arpaio's racial profiling, Jan Brewer's SB 1070, and Romney's calls for "self-deportation," will be headed to the dustbin of history.
Tea Party anti-Mexican venom cannot stop Dr. Carmona. He is a Vietnam war hero, self-made success story, sheriff, trauma surgeon, and as United States Surgeon General, he was our nation's top physician.
Dr. Carmona's campaign is portraying us to the national voting public as we really are: hardworking Americans, who strive and work hard for our children's success, and believe deeply in a fair even-handed approach to public policy.
Dr. Carmona has run as an American and Latino success story that inspires and motivates all Americans who still believe that the American Dream is within the reach of everyone.
His opponent, former mining lobbyist and Republican Congressman Jeff Flake, carries heavy baggage.
U.S. Representative Jeff Flake has voted against veterans, women, seniors and the Dream Act students. Flake says that comprehensive immigration reform must wait until the border is secure, while Dr. Carmona says we can do both.
Jeff Flake is strongly and financially supported by Governor Jan Brewer, an architect of Latino voter suppression in Arizona since 2004, who boldly calls for denying drivers licenses to young Latino students who have qualified for residency under President Obama's Dream Act Executive Order.
The new Arizona Latino voting bloc clearly understands that the self-deportation team includes Romney, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Governor Jan Brewer and Jeff Flake.
Arizona's Latino voting bloc has grown dramatically. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials projects that almost 70,000 more Latinos will vote in Arizona in 2012 than in 2012, up from 291,000 to 359,000. (Nationally, the Latino vote may rise to over 12 million.)
From 2000 to 2010, Latino voter registration grew by 72 percent in Arizona. Census data indicate that the Latino citizen voting age population in Arizona is over 23 percent. It is estimated that the percentage of Latino registered voters as a percentage of all voters rose from 14.3 percent in 2008 to 18.4 percent in 2012.
These figures all will redound to Dr. Carmona's benefit.
Looking forward beyond Election Day, I anticipate that with Dr. Carmona's election to the United States Senate, he will join with solid leaders, like U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, to craft comprehensive immigration reform.
With Rich Carmona's victory, at last the reality of demographics will catch up with the urgency of real reform. And, the Arizona Latino voting bloc will deserve much of the credit for moving immigration reform and our country forward.


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Joe's Sporting Goods has a great price on the Pflueger Purist Spinning Reel. These typically sell for $79.99 so at $59.99 you can get them now for $20 off.
IFD MINI REVIEW: I grabbed a couple of these this spring for open water fishing. Of all my summer reels these are my absolute favorite to use, in fact I find myself gravitating to them whenever I can. They're very smooth, have a nice heavy duty bail that clicks over easily, and the high quality drag allowed me to bring in a 'back-hooked' 15lb carp with an Ultralight Rod rigged with 3lb Cajun line. I've been nothing but impressed with these reels, the 1325x size should work for most Ice Fishing Setups.
Run over and grab a few of these reels to pair up with your higher end rods while they're on sale. They make for a great year round crossover reel.
Check out this Ice Fishing Deal:
Pflueger Purist Spinning Reel – $59.99
Own and use a Pflueger Purist? Take advantage of this ice fishing deal? Give us your two-cents in the comments below.
Find a better deal? Let us know!
Help Us Out! If you do a product review on any of these items be sure and mention you found it on icefishingdeals.com!
NOTE: Deals often come and go quickly. We try to post deals as quickly as we can but often times a deal can end on an item shortly after we post it. So take advantage of deals quickly, and check back at IFD as often as possible!


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ALERT! Pets Off Leash Can Be Dangerous
Pets off leash are illegal and not allowed on Daniel Island per our governing documents as well as City of Charleston Ordinances, Sections 5-4 and 5-5.
Violators could face a fine of up to $500 or be held personally liable if someone or another pet were to get hurt by an off leash dog.
Daniel Island does have an off-leash dog run area at the City of Charleston Governor's Park located north of the Mark Clark Bridge. This is an area that provides for off-leash recreation, training, and exercise opportunities for dog owners. While in dog runs or off-leash areas, animals are required to remain under sufficient/strict voice control. To view the ordinances click HERE or to report off leash violations, please contact the City of Charleston Animal Control Division at 843-720-3915 or 843-743-7200.


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Inspiring women: Sarah Tierney
The BAFTA-winning filmmaker who turned her love for digital into an international entertainment business which counts Andy Murray as a fan …
Name: Sarah Tierney
Founded: We Are Colony in February 2013 (launched February 2015)
Start-up elevator pitch: Global streaming service featuring award-winning filmmakers and actors
Industry: Media
Follow her: @sarahtierney
Why is she impressive?
Forget Netflix and the like, Sarah Tierney's pay-as-you-go film streaming start-up gives you more by including access to exclusive behind-the-scenes extras; like those you would typically find on DVDs. With a penchant for film and entertainment – Tierney spent 10 years in film and is an Oscar-nominated and BAFTA-winning filmmaker – the female entrepreneur has created a service that has captured audiences worldwide. It has account holders in 115 countries and paying users in 84 countries. Tennis ace Andy Murray is also a fan and in February 2016 invested in Tierney's London-based start-up through crowdfunding platform Seedrs. Early-stage start-up fund Seedcamp, digital fund Firestartr, and Archer Gray; the New York media production company, equally support Tierney's cause and were involved in a £1.4m funding round last year, bringing the start-up's valuation to £6m.


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Everyone always talks about how hot it is in the desert. Last year, in 2018, in order to hike a fair amount of miles for any given day within Southern California, hikers had to get up early to beat the heat, stop for a siesta in the early afternoon to wait out the heat of the day and then start hiking again as soon as it began cooling off for the day. The notoriously hot sections, like the Los Angeles Aqueduct, were often hiked at night or early in the morning because it was way too hot to hike during the day.
This year, in 2019, the weather in Southern California has been a different story. It's been cold, foggy, windy and wet. There's been a considerable amount of both rain and snow falling onto the trail, well into the Spring and early Summer months. One day, we're hiking in warm sunshine while wearing shorts. The next day, we're hiking in the cold, wind and rain wearing all of our layers. The whole idea of Southern California being warm and sunny is a myth this year. At least there's been plenty of water at most of the water sources along the trail so far.
The unseasonably cold and wet weather has made the time on trail really challenging. I've often questioned myself why I'm out here hiking in the first place – something I never did along my thru-hike last year. This is why this week's lesson has been all about learning how to embrace the suck.
Bleeder and I kicked off Week Six on the PCT with a second zero day at Hiker Heaven. We started the day with another delicious breakfast in town at the Home Made Cafe. After breakfast, we walked across the street to the hardware store where Bleeder bought a cowboy hat. It's fun to watch Bleeder become more American everyday. He already speaks better English than I do!
Later that morning, we had a special visitor come meet us on trail – my Dad!! After our morning in town, we made our way back to Hiker Heaven where my Dad picked us up. For the rest of the day, all three of us got to hang out – going to REI, driving around Palmdale, eating burgers and chili cheese fries at Tommy's and then ended the day hanging out in a hot tub at a hotel. It was so nice to catch up with my Dad and share with him all of our trail stories about our adventure so far.
The next day on Day 37, it was back to the trail for both Bleeder and I. We thoroughly enjoyed our Zero Days at Hiker Town and with my Dad, but it was time to get hiking again. Four miles into being back on trail, we stopped for a break to help other fellow thru-hikers celebrate Norway's Independence Day. With our pack full of food and water, the early break was welcomed. Especially because right after where we stopped to take a break, we had a pretty big climb to hike up.
We ended up hiking a total of 11 miles for the day and stopped to camp at a tentsite near a couple of overhead powerlines. Bleeder and I both ended up getting quite a good night's sleep. The wind wasn't as bad as we thought it would be and our tent wasn't covered in condensation in the morning.
Day 38, we only had ten miles to hike before reaching the road to head towards Casa de Luna. Casa de Luna is a popular stop along the PCT where thru-hikers are welcomed in by trail angels, Terrie and Joe Anderson. Upon arrival, hikers are invited to choose a piece of Hawaiian attire to wear during their stay, treated to camping in an incredible backyard and are fed two meals – pancakes for breakfast and taco salad for dinner.
As Bleeder and I made our way down towards the road, a car parked along the side of the highway with a couple inside asked us if we'd like a ride into town, to the gas station. We happily accepted the offer. After being dropped off and dining on a few snacks from the gas station, we walked up the street to Casa de Luna and joined the many other hikers who were already there.
As soon as we arrived, we were given a quick rundown of Casa de Luna including the rules/guidelines, a quick tour of where everything we'd need would be, where to setup our tent and meal times. Before we did anything else though, we were directed towards the collection of Hawaiian attire and told to pick out something to wear during our stay.
Once our Hawaiian attire was on and our tent set up, Bleeder and I found a spot on the couch in the front yard and cuddled up in a dry blanket for the rest of the day. It was nice to relax while staying warm and dry. Later that night after the taco salad dinner, all of us hikers took turns dancing for our Class of 2019 PCT bandanas. Shortly after the dance party, most people headed to their tents and went to bed.
Originally Bleeder and I were planning on hiking out from Casa de Luna the next morning. That is until it rained all night on us and well into morning. The weather forecast was calling for cold, rain and thunder/lightning storms all day long – not exactly ideal weather to hike out into.
We decided to play it safe and take an unexpected zero day at Casa de Luna for Day 39 while we waited out the storm. Normally on zero days, we'd be sleeping inside somewhere and have the option to shower and do laundry. Not on this zero day.
Bleeder and I spent the entire day sitting on a couch underneath a tent awning in the front yard of Casa de Luna, huddled underneath a blanket. It was better than trying to wait out the storm in our tent. It was cold and wet outside and it rained all day long. The one time it stopped raining during the day, we walked down to the gas station to purchase and eat microwave food and snacks. On our way back, the rain started again so we picked up our pace and headed back to the couch we had been sitting on earlier.
Luckily the next morning on Day 40, we woke up to partly sunny skies. The rain had stopped! We broke down our camp, put away our soggy tent, enjoyed one last pancake breakfast, gave back our Hawaiian attire, gave Terrie a hug and scored a ride back to the trailhead from one of the volunteers. It was time to get back to hiking while the weather was halfway decent.
The weather today was still cold and windy, but at least it wasn't raining. Somehow we managed to hike 20 miles for the day and then set up camp at the Sawmill Campground with a bunch of other PCT hikers nearby.
Day 41 started out to be a very cold and foggy morning, making it extremely hard to get out of the tent, let alone break down camp and start hiking. After a few pep talks and putting on all of my clothing layers, we started hiking for the day and reached Mile 500.
The rest of the day was pretty tough. The terrain wasn't super hard to hike. It was the weather that made the rest of the day challenging because it was so cold. I don't think I ever took my fleece off once today, even when we were climbing up along the trail. At one point, it had started raining, causing me to stop and put on my rain gear and pack cover just to help keep my stuff stay dry.
Today was the first day I'd ever considered quitting the trail. I was THAT miserable while hiking today. I felt pretty sad about having those feelings. I'd never once considered quitting the trail last year, probably because we had it easier with the weather.
This year, I've been hiking considerably slower ever since I rolled my ankle on Day Four. If I don't take a break every five or six miles, my ankle starts to hurt. With every step, I'm incredibly paranoid of rolling my ankle again. Ankle pain and paranoia aside, the weather has sucked in Southern California and it's STILL snowing in the Sierra. It might be the same trail, but there seem to be MANY more challenges this year.
I know better than to quit on a bad day so despite all the pain and discomfort, I told myself to, "Embrace the suck." No matter how bad things get out here, my time on trail is limited. One day soon before I know it, the adventure will be over and I'll wish for it to happen all over again. So even when things get tough out here, I need to appreciate my time on trail as much as I can. Embrace the suck. Embrace the suck.
Towards the end of the day, we made it to Highway 138 where we planned on crossing the highway and would head towards Hiker Town for the night. Instead, we were greeted by an over-friendly, older gentleman sitting in his car, waiting at the side of the highway for hikers. There was something "off" about the way he greeted us, which put both Bleeder and I on guard immediately. Turns out our initial reactions were right. Read about our unfortunate experience at Hiker Town this year here.
In the morning after our experience with Hiker Town, Bleeder and I were more than ready to be back on trail, even with the dark, menacing clouds looming overhead. We set out wearing all of our clothing layers and headed for the notoriously hot and flat Los Angeles Aqueduct. Normally this is a section hikers usually either hike at night or first thing in the morning before the sun comes up. This year, we had the cooler weather finally working to our advantage.
We were not only able to cover all of the 17 miles of the aqueduct, but we also continued hiking through both wind farms, did a big climb and found a tentsite to set up camp for the night in a protected spot from the wind, alongside a small creek. Somehow we managed to hike our biggest day on trail yet, 24 miles!
The good news was tomorrow, there would only be another 17 miles of hiking before we'd reach the next town stop, Tehachapi. The bad news was the weather was most likely going to be crappy the whole way into town.
For now, we decided to appreciate our incredibly protected tentsite that shielded our tent from the wind for the evening while everyone else camping around us was fearful of having their tents blown away and/or broken thanks to the vicious wind. Not only do we learn how to embrace the suck out here, but we also learn to appreciate the little things we do have whenever we have them.
Want to be an active part of my 2019 PCT thru-hiking experience without having to take a single step? CLICK HERE to be a Trail Angel for my thru-hike this year.
2 comments on "Hiking the PCT Taught Me How to Embrace the Suck"
I can so relate to embracing the suck, it's what you have in the moment vs. whatever preconception we create for ourselves, so we may as well embrace it, it's our reality! Crazy Spring, I saw lots of fresh snow on the hills outside of Reno last week, so much late snow. So different from 2018! Good luck and thank you for sharing your adventure! 🙂


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Thank You Chester Bennington And Linkin Park For Daring Us To Be Different
Chester Bennington's death hit me hard and I felt a deep sense of sadness having listened to and loved Linkin Park for as long as I can remember. Many out there will be feeling the same.
Being a huge fan, the tragic news got me thinking about how much of an impact the band had on me personally. But it was only after scrolling through social media did I realise how much of an impact Chester Bennington and Linkin Park had on so many others.
Linkin Park were present in some key moments of my life – throughout school, university and into adulthood – and the importance of that only really hit me last night.
Back in 2000, it was my first year of secondary school and I'd started listening to a wider variety of music – it was also the same year Linkin Park brought out Hybrid Theory.
Listening to it for the first time, I instantly fell in love. It still remains one of my favourite albums now, 17 years on. The fusion of rock, hip-hop, electronica and pop was something none of us had ever heard done so well before.
And apparently I wasn't the only one to think that. Linkin Park seemed to be one of those bands that everybody liked in school, whether you listened predominantly to rock music or not.
A couple of years later and I'd really bonded with a group of friends over music and we'd go to gigs together and sit and listen to music in the park. No prizes for guessing who we always listened to…
By that point, Linkin Park had released Meteora too and it was a regular feature on our playlists.
While scrolling through social media, it hit home that there'll be so many other people feeling the exact same sense of nostalgia. I've read posts from people praising the band for getting them into metal and people crediting them as the reason they started playing music in the first place.
In 2004, Linkin Park collaborated with Jay-Z to bring out the Collision Course album. Six of the band's tracks mashed up with six of Jay-Z's. Somehow, it worked.
On New Year's Eve that year, aged 16 and too young to go out into town, my friends and I had a house party. The host was in the middle of moving and the only music we had was the Collision Course CD – so for the entire night, we had those six tracks on repeat and no one complained.
I remember hearing this album all over the radio, music TV channels and around school at the time. What's incredible is that it wasn't a gimmick to sell some music. Collision Course has not only stood the test of time, it opened a pathway for artists to dare to be different.
Fast-forward to 2006, I left Derby to start university in Manchester and I, like so many others, knew absolutely nobody. Being in a small halls, it was difficult, it was essentially 100 or so people forced together just because they were at the same uni, and for many of us, that was the only common ground there was.
But, it was through the love of music (I had plastered my door with posters of bands) that I met Alex. She and I got talking because she'd seen a huge Linkin Park poster on my door and from there our friendship grew. We went out to places like Jilly's Rockworld, Satan's Hollow, Fifth Av and 42s in Manchester and that was a turning point for me.
Still now, almost ten years after seeing them in 2008, one of the best gigs I ever went to featured Linkin Park in the line-up.
It was a sunny day that year when I travelled from Derby down to the MK Bowl in Milton Keynes for Projekt Revolution with my sister, Emily. Linkin Park headlined with performances from The Bravery, InnerPartySystem, Pendulum, Enter Shikari, N.E.R.D. and Jay-Z.
Linkin Park were the kind of band people would travel days and spend hundreds to go and see live and that was in no small part down to Chester Bennington's supreme talent.
The energy on stage, as well as in the crowd, was one of the best I've experienced and not only did Linkin Park play a full set on their own, they were joined on stage by Jay-Z at the end of the night to perform the Collision Course album in its entirety – not many bands would do that purely for the love of their fans.
Chester's voice was every bit as incredible, if not better, live. It carried so well, much more than most singers I've heard, and his unique sound was one of the reasons he fit in so well with Linkin Park.
Since then, the band have always had a place in my playlists and I've continued to listen to them in the car more times than I care to imagine. In fact, Hybrid Theory was the first album I bought after I passed my driving test, just so I could listen to them everywhere I went.
Chester was a good guy and often spoke about mental health issues during concerts and it's sad that he has lost his battle with something he fought so hard against for so long.
His death may mark the end of an era, but Chester's legacy will live on through his incredible catalogue of music that brought people together and got people through hard times.
And that is more than most people will ever have the opportunity to do, let alone achieve – and that is what I realised yesterday.
Rest in peace, Chester. You'll be missed, but never forgotten.
If any of these issues have affected you, please don't suffer in silence. Call Samaritans on their free 24-hour hotline on 116 123.
Topics: Featured


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Before you start any exercise regime, you might want to think about completing a proper warm up! This should help to relax your horse and allow you to get the most out of training!
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For the first few weeks, you might want to start by building up some fitness in your horse. Spending at least a month walking on roads could be the ideal place to start.
4. Run to the hills!
After building up a good base of fitness on the roads, it could be worth introducing some light hill work for your equine. This is in preparation for the cross-country events.
5. Get off!
Remember, as the nights get darker its quality over quantity! A lunging session will allow you to keep your horse fit and stretch and strengthen their muscles when you don't have time to school. You can use this time to check their form from the ground. It could also be good for them to do some work without the extra weight!
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In order to improve your horse's cardiovascular fitness, interval training could be the answer. Changing between walking, trotting and a canter, as well as increasing the intervals over time could be helpful.
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Once you've moved on to canter work, it could be the time to start some pole work in order to help build up your horse's balance. Jumping straight and maintaining a good rhythm could be very important here!
Preparing for the eventing season can be hard work but could all be worth it when you and your horse enter into competition in prime condition! Getting a well-thought-out plan in place could also be important in helping avoid injury during training. To further try to protect yourself from the unexpected, you might also want to consider purchasing some Horse Insurance. At The Insurance Emporium, our Horse Insurance policies include cover for Death, Theft or Straying up to 100% of Sum Insured/Market Value, whichever is less. Trot on down to The Insurance Emporium today to find out more!
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My Assistant
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Importexportspecifications.add Method (access), Access 2010
Mar 27 2020, 01:12 PM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Hello to the forum.
Having another go at importexportspecs, looking at this MS article and trying to follow that by typing directly into 'immediate window', following intellisense and using an xml file saved in notepad++ (this is a reduced version of an import spec created and saved from a test accdb).
Getting error 'expected linenumber, labe or statement at end of statement'
Have only changed private details on path in this quote.
CurrentProject.ImportExportSpecifications.Add(impoexpotest4,<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" ?>
<ImportExportSpecification Path = "C:\Users\xxxx\Documents\yyyy\accdb_current\WorkingVersion.accdb" xmlns="urn:www.microsoft.com/office/access/imexspec">
<ImportAccess ImportExportSpecs="false" MenusAndToolbars="false" Relationships="true" NavPane="false" StructureAndData="true" QueriesAsTables="false" Resources="false">
<AccessObject Source="tbl_b24notes" ObjectType="Table" />
<AccessObject Source="tbl_b24fates_multi_dates" ObjectType="Table" />
<AccessObject Source="B24_testnotes3" ObjectType="Query" />
<AccessObject Source="B24s_flightcheck_qry" ObjectType="Query" />
<AccessObject Source="B24s_2019_SecondForm" ObjectType="Form" />
<AccessObject Source="B24s_flightlistform" ObjectType="Form" />
These objects exist and the earlier test import worked well, I could delete all objects and "execute" again with success.
Reason for banging my head against this is that I want to be able to regularly import about 190 objects into a new/clean accdb from a master "workingversion" of about 600 objects.
Why ? The accdb is for display of historical information and I have a large amount of work still to do but have number of core objects that function together as the display part with a lot of extra objects for data entry, editing and general development.
I want (and do so regularily) backup both the full fat version and the thin core version as separate accdbs.
Why ? To keep the core version unconstipated (does that word exist?).
So I am trying to create/sve a spec for a regular import and then "add" this to a fresh accdb and then "execute".
But my syntax in the vba is clearly wrong.
Any help would be much appreciated.
Mar 28 2020, 11:35 AM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
So I am trying to create/save a spec for a regular import and then "add" this to a fresh accdb and then "execute".
To the best of my knowledge, not that easy a Task, but I'll give it a try.
Attached File(s)
Import_Specs.JPG ( 53.19K )Number of downloads: 0
Mar 28 2020, 12:00 PM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Thank you "ADezii".
I was aware of the standard method as that is how I created the test version.
But as my post says ... I need to do this for approx 180/190 objects ... which would take a while each time ...
As I want to have this process "execute" from a newly created accdb then the import spec will not be saved within that new accdb ... it would have to be created.
Once I have the first version saved out as xml then I hope to be able to write a procedure (perhaps from a very simple one button form) that will create and execute this import from saved file/s.
I have tried to understand the following to gain insight but this stuff is above my altitude ... ...from this forum... and ...also from this forum... and ...another forum...
It surely must be that I dont understand the "add" method and its arguments ... MS state this can be done (and this very old blog post here ... ) rather casually mentions at the end that this is easy !
And intellisense states "Add(Name As String, SpecificationDefinition As String) As ImportSpecification"
But clearly I got that bit wrong ....
I note that there is no specific requirement for a "description" ....
Simply dont understand the MS articles which offer no help whatsoever to beginners like me.
They are all available from the first MS article refering to methods (including 'Add') and properties .... here ....
I was also hoping to be able to refer directly to a saved xml file (in current project directory) instead of pasting in the xml ....
If intellisense accepts the first line up to the chosen new name and following comma then surely the rest of it, "SpecificationDefinition", must be capable of being entered ?
Does anyone know the correct structure of the whole "add" method ?
Mar 28 2020, 01:35 PM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
I will see if I can come up with another approach.
Mar 28 2020, 03:10 PM
UtterAccess VIP
Posts: 2,404
Joined: 4-June 18
From: Somerset, UK
Whilst the wizard driven XML import/export data tasks introduced in A2007 may arguably be more powerful than the older approach using system tables, the process is much less transparent than was previously the case
See if my article about the 'new' approach helps: View and Edit IMEX Data Task Specifications
Mar 28 2020, 03:20 PM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
I finally got the whole process to work, but it is not exactly intuitive and is a little convoluted.
This post has been edited by ADezii: Mar 28 2020, 03:40 PM
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Registry2.JPG ( 20.65K )Number of downloads: 3
Mar 28 2020, 03:36 PM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Thank you to "isladogs" and "ADezii".
I have had one attempt at the form/module mentioned by "isladogs" but was advised by you that this would not accomplish my aims .. but will read again.
"ADezil" ... will read, digest and attempt.
Please bear with me as i am slower than you lot ...
Mar 28 2020, 04:50 PM
UtterAccess VIP
Posts: 2,404
Joined: 4-June 18
From: Somerset, UK
Hi Pavl
Can you explain your comment where you state that I advised you that my approach would not achieve your aims. I'm not clear what you are talking about.
Mar 29 2020, 06:52 AM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
I have found a more efficient and cleaner approach that avoids using the System Registry. The XML for the Specification is written to a File, presumably on a Public Server, where all Client PCs can then access and execute. I'll post the Code when I get a chance.
Mar 29 2020, 08:42 AM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
I was also hoping to be able to refer directly to a saved xml file (in current project directory) instead of pasting in the xml ....
Mar 29 2020, 10:53 AM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Hello "isladogs".
I dont know how to correctly quote a thread on this forum ... so it is on ...Access Automation>Msysimexspecs, Access 2010 ... your post 15 (which might appear ... here....
Am trying the method from "ADezii" now that I have a bit of time but am struggling ... will reply separately below.
Mar 29 2020, 11:02 AM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Thank you "ADezii"
No time till now ....
Thank you for revised version ... was struggling with even getting the first bit to run ... I had noted the "SaveSetting" and found out that this would create the HKey upon first use but never got that far ..
So will try new version and report back.
Mar 29 2020, 11:24 AM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
Forget writing to the Registry and try the newer Revision.
P.S. - If you are still struggling, I can actually Upload the Text and XML Files, then all you would need to do is to Copy them into a certain Folder, and Copy-N-Paste then execute the correct Code. Just let me know.
This post has been edited by ADezii: Mar 29 2020, 11:39 AM
Mar 29 2020, 03:03 PM
UtterAccess VIP
Posts: 2,404
Joined: 4-June 18
From: Somerset, UK
I'd forgotten that thread which you managed to quote correctly.
IIRC your aims at that time did not require the use of my code.
It seems that you are now asking something slightly different and my code should now be helpful.
However it is likely that my code and adezii's are similar as its the same process being managed.
My code doesn't make any changes to the registry either. Its not necessary to do so.
Just out of interest, did you look at my example app / code?
Mar 29 2020, 04:11 PM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
Just out of interest, did you look at my example app / code?
I did, and I must say that it is a very impressive piece of Programming.
Mar 30 2020, 02:48 AM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Thank you both again ...
Clearly I am not being clear .....
Firstly I have no coding experience other than that gained over time on my own and with help from the various forums such as this one and the Google family.
The accdb is only for display of historical information, often incomplete, sometimes conflicting, and in 'development' for quite a while ....
One main/full fat accdb with all objects, both core functioning along with detritus objects from previous edits/changes and currently useful editing objects.
This is a long term project and the original information is nothing like 'clean' or organised ... so there are many changes/alterations/additions over time.
Hence the current bloated accdb.
The core objects are fully functional BUT they will be changed slightly over time (new data, better method of organisation and so on).
So I want to 'fork' the accdb into two parallel versions.
Version one is the full fat ... with normal regular backup copies. This is the version that I will continue to work with for edits/development.
Version two is just the core/thin objects ... again with regular backup copies .... but ....made by the import process from the 'fat' version ... not by copying out from this 'thin' version.
This is the version that is only 'used' ... no edits/changes.
This import process is intended to go only from current working 'fat' version into a newly created 'thin' version.
I am happy with having to occasionally modify a stored xml file if the core object list changes over time.
So I can do/have done the fork .... but that involves nearly 200 objects (from over 600 total ... hence the desire for a reusable import specification.).
This number is intended for reduction ... which will also be part of the edit/development as it progresses.
So I need to copy out (import into clean new accdb) the core objects on a regular basis.
It would be no good just making backups of the thin version because they would no longer be current.
In the meantime I am having a go at the methods you have both kindly offered ... might be a little while ...
Thanks again
Mar 30 2020, 03:11 AM
UtterAccess VIP
Posts: 2,404
Joined: 4-June 18
From: Somerset, UK
Ah. I remember now why I said that there was a better way.
You are once again making this unnecessarily complicated.
You can import just the objects you need to a new blank database (your 'thin' one)
When you do so, tick the option to include import/export specs.
This will copy all saved imports/exports to the new database. Job done!
If you've already made your thin database, you can still transfer the import/export specs from the original database using that method
Mar 30 2020, 03:47 AM
Posts: 126
Joined: 18-October 12
From: RosBif en France
Thank you isladogs ...
Yes .. I see your reasoning and this makes perfect sense ...
So now the process involves copying/backing up just the 'thin' one form itself each time ... by importing ... and would need to delete all objects and all indexes first ?
The background for my proposed method was to create 'clean' new copies instead of backups ...
I have had past problems with compact repair and all the vba vanishing ... reading articles seems to suggest these as either "non documented features"! or residual effects from a bloated database with lots of redundant artefacts ... hence me looking for a way to get fresh versions instead of deleting then copying over the top each time.
And just as an aside ...
I have tried the second method from Adezii and failed straight way from a command button to run the first bit of procedure ..
Ignored that fail and just ran the second bit from another cmd button on same form... and it worked.
This was from a newly created empty accdb with a small test xml file.
It just plonked the objects straight in.
Dont know how to test if the first bit actually did enough or was not needed ..
Got error line 3 .... Set impospec = CurrentProject.ImportExportSpecifications("test3") ....
Error was "Index does not exist..."
I see "ITEM(0)" and "NAME" from the MS article but not "INDEX" .... so beginners like me get puzzled ..
So as far as I can see the first procedure was stopped before it did anything ?
In "Manage Data Tasks" I now have a first test specification and a new one .....
This has no name and no description ....... but has the icon and supposed ability to edit.
Immediate window ...
? CurrentProject.ImportExportSpecifications.Count ... gives result of 2.
Anyway .. thank you both for your help and will continue with both methods ....
Mar 30 2020, 07:06 AM
UtterAccess VIP
Posts: 2,404
Joined: 4-June 18
From: Somerset, UK
Hi Pavl
Let me repeat what I said before. None of this code is needed to fulfil your aims. Neither mine nor adezii's.
Importing required objects plus import/export specifications into a new blank database is creating a new 'clean' copy.
That's ALL you need to do.
On the highly unlikely event it goes wrong, you've still got the original database so you can repeat if necessary,
Once the objects have been transferred there should be no need to ever do it again. Just use the new database
However if data is still being added / edited in the original database , you can easily synchronise this data at a later date.
So stop trying to make the code work. Both sets of code do work fine BUT you don't need them.
Mar 30 2020, 08:58 AM
Posts: 3,090
Joined: 4-February 07
From: USA, Florida, Delray Beach
After clarification by both you and isladogs, I agree with him wholeheartedly that this process can be greatly simplified. With a very small amount of Code, as many Objects as you desire can be Imported from an External (in your case, MASTER) Database. Here is another approach that I can up with. To be honest, I am running out of them.
This post has been edited by ADezii: Mar 30 2020, 09:00 AM
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|14th July 2020 - 05:56 AM


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Unseasonably warm weather was followed by a long cool spring, producing fully ripened fruit with bright acidity.
The widespread international aromatic grape variety has proudly been part of the Cloudy Bay portfolio since 1986.
We hand picked our vineyards according to their flavour profile, commencing on the 26th of March and progressing through to April 15th.
After hand picking and gentle pressing, the wine was 100% barrel fermented in French oak. The wine remained in barrel, 15% of it new, for one year prior to bottling and enjoyed regular lees stirring and about 70% malolactic fermentation. The final blend was determined in March 2011 and bottled the following January.