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Big Chef is a health conscious food company producing Big Taste in Bite Sizes. Big Chef's food is a sensorial experience. A fusion of aromas, colors, tastes, textures and presentation that delight the palate.
Our wide variety of delectable hors d'oeuvres, canapés and appetizers are perfect for your next cocktail, birthday or dinner party. Our frozen product line is shipped overnight continental US and most are ready in 10-15 minutes!


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By Luka Biong Deng
January 19, 2013 - The AU Peace and Security Council will meet in Addis Ababa on 25th January on the margins of the 21st Ordinary Session of the Assembly of AU. This meeting will not only be its first meeting of the year but it will be a meeting at the level of heads of state and government to discuss the issue of Abyei and border conflicts between South and South Sudan. This meeting will put the Council at the crossroad and litmus test of its credibility on the Roadmap that it adopted in April 2012.
The Peace and Security Council is the standing decision-making organ of the African Union for the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts. It is composed of 15 members that reflect regional balance within Africa. All member states of the AU agreed, in accordance with Article 7(2) of the adopted Protocol of the Council, to accept and implement the decisions of the Council. The decisions of the Council are taken by consensus otherwise by a simple majority on procedural matters and by a two-thirds majority vote on all other matters. Interestingly, the Council has the power to recommend, pursuant to Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act, intervention, on behalf of the African Union, in a Member State in respect of grave circumstances, namely war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity, as defined in relevant international conventions and instruments.
The genesis of the involvement of the Council in South Sudan-Sudan affairs came when the tension between the two countries deteriorated to the level of war that threatened the peace and stability in the continent. The Council in its 319th meeting, held at ministerial level on 24 April 2012, adopted a Roadmap outlining the steps to be taken to defuse the tension that was then prevailing between the two countries, facilitate the resumption of negotiations to be concluded within three months on the outstanding issues and the normalization of their relations. The UN Security Council, in support to the AU-led efforts, adopted Resolution No. 2046 on 2nd May 2012, which endorsed the AU Roadmap. The Government of Sudan and Government of South Sudan both accepted the AU Roadmap and the UN Security Council Resolution No. 2046.
The Council in its 327th meeting, held at the level of Heads of State and Government, on 14 July 2012, which, among others, reaffirmed that the Parties must unconditionally implement all aspects of the Roadmap. The AU Assembly adopted at its 19th Ordinary Session, held from 15 to 16 July 2012, the AU Roadmap and stressed the need and obligation on the part of the Parties to fulfill fully and expeditiously their obligations under the Roadmap, bearing in mind the timelines contained in the Roadmap.
After the expiration of three months, the Council at its 329th Meeting held at the level of its permanent representatives on 3rd August 2012 requested the AUHIP to submit to it, by 22 September 2012, a comprehensive report on the status of the negotiations, including detailed proposals on all outstanding issues. The meeting also called to convene, within two weeks following the submission of the AUHIP report, another meeting at the ministerial level to endorse the AUHIP detailed proposals on all outstanding issue as a final and binding solution to the pending issues between the two countries. The Council will then transmit the endorsed report to the UN Security Council for consideration and endorsement acting under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
On 24th October 2012, the Council in its 339th meeting, held at the ministerial level, unanimously accepted the proposal submitted on 21st September 2012 by the AUHIP on the final status of Abyei. The Council gave six weeks for the two countries to reach consensus on the proposal otherwise it will endorse this proposal as final and binding and to be forwarded to the UN Security Council for consideration and endorsement. On 14th December, the Council decided in its 349th Meeting to refer the endorsement of the AU Proposal on the final status of Abyei area to its meeting at the level of the Heads of State. Besides referring the determination on the issue of final status of Abyei to its heads of state, the Council reiterated its acceptance of 21st September AU Proposal on the final status of Abyei area and called for the summit between Presidents Salva and Bashir to resolve the pending issues between the two countries.
This account of the lengthy process and decisions taken by the Council at the levels of permanent representatives, ministers and heads of state and governments underscores the commitment of the Council to resolving the final status of Abyei. The process has also involved all the member States of the AU including Sudan. The summit that was held between Presidents Salva and Bashir on 5th January failed to resolve the final status of Abyei and disputed and claimed border areas. In fact the summit in terms of process, ownership and outcome created confusion. The report of the outcome of the summit that was signed by the Ethiopian Prime Minister and President Thabo Mbeki failed to create consensus about the commitments of the summit.
In particular, the issue of Abyei was badly handled in the summit as there was no reference to the AUHIP 21st September Proposal on the final status of Abyei. Paradoxically, the convening of the next summit to determine the final status of Abyei was made conditional to the constitution of Abyei administration and agreement between two countries on a matrix for the implementation of nine (9) agreements signed in September 2012. In fact Abyei after the summit was made as a ransom or even a hostage.
President Bashir will use the outcome of the summit not to discuss the final status of Abyei and subsequently making it difficult for the Council to endorse the AUHIP Proposal on Abyei. Sudan started again with high level diplomatic campaign to convince the fifteen (15) heads of state and government of the Council to contain the issue of Abyei within the continent and not to be forwarded to the UN Security Council. After meeting with all members of the Council, the Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs vowed with confidence that the issue of Abyei will not see light and it will not reach the UN Security Council.
In fact Sudan is pursuing rather dangerous and futile diplomatic maneuver that is aimed at creating division and confusion in the Council as well as casting doubt on the credibility of the Council. The trajectory of decision making process followed by the Council to resolve the issue of Abyei shows conscious commitments within its mandate of preventing conflicts in the continent. The Government of Sudan has missed the opportunity to contain the issue of Abyei by allowing it to be discussed by the Council on 24th October 2011 when the Council initially accepted the AUHIP Proposal on Abyei.
Equally, Sudan did not reject but accepted the AU Roadmap and the UN Security Council Resolution 2046 that laid out a comprehensive process of resolving all the pending issues between the two countries. Also Sudan as a member of the AU has agreed not only to accept the decisions of the Council but to implement them. The process for resolving the issue of Abyei has been agreed upon by all members of the AU including Sudan and the UN Security Council and any attempt to withhold and to reverse this process is a clear defiance to the continent and international community.
As the summit between Presidents Salva and Bashir is now scheduled on 24th
January to discuss the final status of Abyei before the meeting of the Council to be held on 25th January, President Bashir has the last chance to accept the AU Proposal on Abyei. In case the summit failed to finalize the issue of Abyei, the heads of state and government of the Council have moral and institutional obligations to endorse the AUHIP 21st September 2011 Proposal on Abyei as final and binding. Failure by the Council to endorse the AU Proposal on the final status of Abyei will not only tarnish the credibility of the Council but it will dash the high hopes that the people Abyei attached to the Council to restore justice and peace in the area.
Luka Biong Deng is a senior member of South Sudan's ruling Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Co-Chair of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee and a Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.com. This article is also published by the New Nation Newspaper - New York, US

subset: commoncrawl


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UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today publicly endorsed the One Billion Rising campaign, Eve Ensler's V-Day organization, which is inviting one billion women and those who love them to rise up, today and " walk out, dance and demand an end to this violence."
"I am proud to emphatically raise my voice and join the chorus of all those taking part in the One Billion Rising campaign," Mr. Ban said in a video message on the occasion of V-Day.
The Secretary-General´s office will participate in the One Billion Rising event at UN Headquarters in New York today. In Europe there are events organized in several cities including a dance event at la Monnaie in Brussels (see: https://www.facebook.com/events/421883697858965/) .
In his message Mr. Ban pointed out that in less than three weeks, the Commission on the Status of Women will hold its meeting in New York and already eighteen governments have pledged to come to this historic gathering with new initiatives to stop gender-based violence by improving access to justice, ratifying international conventions, strengthening protection, toughening punishment and enhancing prevention and education.
"I encourage all of you to call on your leaders to join this effort. On this special day, I urge all governments to send us a Valentine message: a concrete commitment of action to end violence against women and girls. Bring that commitment to the Commission on the Status of Women meeting in New York in 18 short days, " Mr. Ban says in his V-Day message.
The Brussels based United Nations Regional Information Centre for Western Europe - UNRIC provides information on UN activities to the countries of the region. It also provides liaison with institutions of the European Union in the field of information. Its outreach activities extend to all segments of society and joint campaigns, projects and events are organized with partners including the EU, governments, the media, NGOs, schools and local authorities.
United Nations Regional Information Centre for Western Europe (UNRIC Brussels)
Residence Palace, Rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 155, Block C2,7th and 8th floor, Brussels 1040, Belgium
Tel.: +32 2 788 8484 / Fax: 32 2 788 8485


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The magic of a botanical garden, surrounded by the rich history of the city. A bright blue sky, the rose garden bathing in the golden sunlight. An abundance of leaves entwined with the weathered iron of the pavilion.
In the Brooklyn collection, handsome and refined patterns render the grace of bygone times. The wallcoverings with the distressed look can take center stage yet also work well with other patterns. Elegant documented designs in a lightly textured look stand out with raised motifs and a touch of sheen.
The layered inks form a mottled pattern with flecks and speckles of color on a softly glowing metallic base, transforming a gently reflective surface. A deep, rich texture is brought to life by layering designs: damask on paisley, twisting and turning leaves on flowers, bouquets on ombre backgrounds. Brooklyn shows a strong personality full of surprising details, allowing you to create a unique ambiance.


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I have some good news and some bad news on my hands. Which do you want first?! What was that? The good? Well, alright then.
The Good: I do not have Carpel Tunnel.
The Bad: Which means that we still don't know what is wrong with my hands, but have ruled out one possibility!
I had a nerve conduction study done on my hands yesterday, with the specific purpose of ruling out Carpel Tunnel as a possibility for what is plaguing me. I have to tell you, I finally encountered a doctor throughout this whole ordeal that I really genuinely liked. A lot. In fact, I'm really quite disappointed that this is the only time that I'll get to see her! I think perhaps I liked her so much because we had the "midwest connection", her originally being from Michigan and myself from Iowa. I liked her from the moment she came in and sat down, with her slightly disheveled, but comfortable, appearance.
I liked her because even though this would be the only time I would see her, she cared about me as a patient. She asked questions, asked what the other doctors had done, even had her assitant go and have my bloodwork from the other doctors faxed to her. All before we started the one test I was sent to her to for. In fact, I liked her so much that I shared with her how much I disliked the doctor that referred her, and my bad experiences. Which I learned she was surprised to hear, as patients generally liked my Rhumetologist and only had positive things to say about her. She encouraged me to give her another chance, as she was a very good doctor and quite smart, indicating that perhaps she was just having an off day the first time she saw me. I was glad to hear this, and hope that my future experiences with the Rhumetologist are better.
Anyhow, loved the doctor. Never get to see her again. Let's move on, shall we?
The first thing that we started with was her having me attempt to prevent letting her move different parts of my hands/arms. I was successful in all of these until she had me put my pinky and thumb together. Try as I might, she was able to very easily separate them. I couldn't get them together. This is my carpal muscle. As such, we went into the tests thinking that we would find that I had numb nerves and carpal issues. Essentially, she was expecting to find Carpel Tunnel.
However, when we got to the nerve tests we actually found the opposite to be true. Not only did I not have numb nerves, I have hyper sensitive nerves. For example, the little voltage machine that they use to stimulate your nerves has a knob (think Frankenstein, you know you already are anyhow!). The dial on the knob goes from 0-10. I was set on .5 and my nerves were jumping like crazy in reaction to the shocks being sent through. Literally jumping. In fact, I felt them well after we had moved on to a different nerve to test. They were so sensitive that she even commented she was surprised that she'd not had to adjust the knob setting at all, as generally most people don't react with it set so low.
So, I'm not really the huge weenie that I always thought I was when it comes to pain, I just have really sensitive nerves! Which means that it doesn't take much to stimulate them for a reaction. Which explains why I am like the only person in the world that cannot walk barefoot across anything except extremely smooth concrete!
Anyhow, back to the test.
After she went through testing all of the nerves in my hands (which was a totally weird feeling), she stuck me with this needle thing that had a microphone attached and listened to my muscles work. I was like "WTF how is that even possible". But apparently it is. So we listened to my muscles, and they sounded fine.
When we were finished, she indicated that the problem is definitely not nerve related. She said that perhaps it was something like RSI, but that didn't explain the inflammation seen in the blood work (and in my hands!), but did indicate that it was good that the anti-inflamatory was helping. She said that she would likely recommend ice treatments and regular PT, along with rest, to see where that would lead. But would ultimately leave that decision to the Rhumetologist.
I see her again on September 20. So until then we know that I don't have Carpel Tunnel (which is a relief), but still don't know what's causing the problem. Which is still a bit overwhelming. Although, knocking down one possibility is at least more than I had before yesterday. So I'll take what victories I can 🙂


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Ask The Judge: Attorney Sanctions, Jury Room
Editor's Note: As part of ongoing extended coverage of the Casey Anthony trial, WESH 2 News legal analyst Judge O.H. Eaton Jr. is answering questions about the case.
Casey Anthony & Fifth Amendment
Dear Judge Eaton: Could the defense put Casey on the stand, ask their questions, and when it is the prosecutors turn have her plead the Fifth? -- Maria
When a defendant elects to take the stand to testify, she puts her credibility at issue just like any other witness. After she testifies on direct examination, she is subject to cross-examination on the matters to which she testified. She cannot take the Fifth Amendment on any matter to which she has testified. However, she cannot be questioned about crimes for which she has not been accused. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
State On Accidental Drowning
Dear Judge Eaton: Why isn't the state pressing the defense's claim during opening statements that Caylee was the victim of an accidental drowning? -- Tom, Marietta, Ga.
I expect the state to challenge the defense of drowning both during the defenses case and in rebuttal. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
Jose Baez Compensation
Dear Judge Eaton: If Jose Baez is representing Casey for free, how is he able to maintain his normal business and personal expenses? Why would he choose to represent her for free? Do you think he hopes to gain credibility or notoriety from this case? -- Sara, DeBary, Fla.
You will have to ask Mr. Baez these questions. I have not discussed them with Mr. Baez, and I simply dont know the answers. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
Possible Sanctions
Dear Judge Eaton: What sanctions, if any, could be levied by the Florida Bar against either attorney, the prosecution or the defense? -- Palo
The Florida Bar can file ethical charges in appropriate cases. The accused attorney has the right to be heard before a local grievance committee. The committee submits a report to the Florida Supreme Court. Depending on the seriousness of the violation, the court can issue various sanctions such as a reprimand, placing the lawyer on probation with various conditions such as requiring oversight of the lawyers trust account, suspending the lawyer from practice of law or disbarment. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
Witness Admonitions
Dear Judge Eaton: I know the jury members are not permitted to read, view or discuss any aspects of the case they will eventually determine. What about witnesses? Are they allowed to view news stories on the case or read newspaper coverage regarding the case? -- Yolanda Ulrich, The Villages, Fla.
Witnesses are instructed not to discuss the case among themselves or with anyone else -- except the lawyers in the case -- and not to read about the case or watch news reports. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
MORE: Extended CoverageSTAY UPDATED: Casey iPhone App
New Defense Team?
Dear Judge Eaton: Would Judge Perry have the authority to take Jose Baez off the Casey Anthony case and replace him with another defense attorney? If so, could Casey Anthony protest his decision? -- Joyce Mitchell, Jacksonville, Ill.
This would be a most drastic sanction. The Constitution guarantees a defendant to have counsel of her choice unless counsel is appointed because the defendant is indigent. Removing counsel during the middle of a trial would have to be justified because counsel has become physically incapacitated, is grossly incompetent or conducting himself in a manner that cannot be corrected by contempt proceedings. The appellate courts seriously frown upon removing counsel without the defendants consent. The error could be serious enough to warrant a new trial. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
Mason Lead Attorney
Dear Judge Eaton: In view of the apparent disregard for the courts orders by Mr. Baez, is there a reason that Judge Perry could not designate Cheney Mason as the lead attorney and delegate Mr. Baez to secondary role? -- Mike, Kissimmee, Fla.
This is an option, but it is low on the list as an extreme sanction. Mr. Mason may or may not be familiar with all of the witnesses. Substituting one lawyer for another may result in even more delay. Substituting counsel without the defendants consent is likely to be an error serious enough to warrant a new trial. Removal of counsel is allowed only in cases where counsel is grossly incompetent, physically incapacitated or conducting himself in such a manner that cannot be corrected by contempt proceedings. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
Speedy Trial?
Dear Judge Eaton: Casey Anthony was arrested in 2008 and was indicted by the grand jury that same year. Now it's 2 1/2 years later for the trial. What happened to a person being afforded a speedy trial? -- Karen, Crystal River, Fla.
Florida Criminal Procedure Rule 3.191 provides for a defendant to be brought to trial on a felony charge within 185 days following arrest. This time limit can be waived, and it was waived in this case. The defendant has the right to file a demand for speedy trial at any time and be brought to trial within 60 days. No demand was filed in this case because the case was not ready for trial. -- Judge O.H. Eaton
What's In Jury Room?
Dear Judge Eaton: What is available in the jury room for their use when removed from the courtroom? Can they have books, magazines? Is there a TV and possibly a DVD player available to watch movies or things other than trial coverage -- perhaps history or science channels or the like? They seem to be having to spend a lot of time back there, and without something, it would seem to be extremely and increasingly difficult not to start talking about proceedings inside the courtroom. -- Dianne, Ocala, Fla.
The jurors are allowed to have books and other reading materials not related to the case while they are out of court waiting in the jury room. I doubt if there is a connection for TV in the jury room. They are not allowed to have any of these materials during deliberations. -- Judge O.H. Eaton


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OSHA finds safety violations at Army pond
3 people have died at weapons-testing pond
Federal officials say nearly a dozen safety standards were violated at an Army weapons-testing pond at the Aberdeen Proving Ground, where three people have died this year.
The Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration said Thursday that it found seven serious violations at the facility in Aberdeen known as the "super pond."
OSHA began its investigation after a civilian technician died while performing routine maintenance in the pond on Jan. 30. Four weeks later, two sailors drowned during a routine dive at the facility.
Among the serious violations were improper training for divers, allowing dives to be performed without a standby diver, and using breathing air for purposes other than breathing. OSHA said it also found four less serious violations.
Two sailors could face criminal charges in the deaths of the Navy divers, too.


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The results of this study suggest that auditors spend a greater effort on analyzing income-increasing items compared to income-decreasing items. They also suggest that auditors compensate for greater risk associated with income-increasing items by requiring greater verification of such items. Because of the limitations placed on the results of this study due to the specific context of the experiment, future research should try and examine such differences in auditors' decision-making processes.
For more information on this study, please contact Naman K. Desai.
Desai, N. K., and G. J. Gerard. 2013. Auditors' Consideration of Material Income-Increasing versus Material Income-Decreasing Items during the Audit Process. Auditing 32 (2).
The model offers a simple explanation of why the world, for so long after the height of the global financial crisis, is still mired in slow growth. During a prolonged and excessive boom bank profits and capital were materially increased by unrealized FVA profits. These profits justified the pay-out of liquid assets weakening the financial system. The additional capital further justified more debt financed asset expansion. With the crisis bank management realized that these unrealized capital items were not permanent. Management was able to postpone the recognition of FVA losses by using the flexibility inherent in FVA regulations, but lending was slowed to a point reflective of "safe" capital levels. Lending activity will stay subdued until all of these marked-up items have been worked off banks' balance sheets.
de Jager, P. 2014. Fair value accounting, fragile bank balance sheets and crisis: A model. Accounting, Organizations & Society 39 (2): 97-116.
While prior research has investigated audit effects in for profit industries, this study investigates audit effects at nonprofit organizations. Nonprofits in general and PHAs in particular are largely served by smaller auditors frequently classified in prior research as lower quality. Further, nonprofits in general represent low litigation risks for the auditors and the threat of litigation and associated economic loss is generally considered one motive for an audit firm to perform a high quality audit. The evidence suggests that audits matter in the nonprofit industry. So even in a setting where research would suggest there would be low audit quality, when the auditor is smaller and the risk of litigation is low, auditors make significant adjustments to pre-audited data and help to constrain management bias toward meeting pre-established financial thresholds.
For more information on this study, please contact Barbara Grein.
Grein, B. M., and S. L. Tate. 2011. Monitoring by Auditors: The Case of Public Housing Authorities. The Accounting Review 86 (4):1289-1319.
Given that REM often causes significant auditor discomfort, the authors' paper provides broader REM and auditor comfort-related questions pertaining to the effects of management's focus on short-term results, the extent to which REM is a problem that can or needs to be fixed, and the possibility that REM is a gateway to more serious forms of accounting manipulation.
Commerford, B. P., D. R. Hermanson, R. W. Houston, and M. F. Peters. 2016. Real Earnings Management: A Threat to Auditor Comfort? Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 35 (4): 39 – 56.
Our study evaluates a provision of Dodd-Frank which provided permanent exemption from Section 404b compliance to non-accelerated filers. Our results show that these small firms did not improve their reporting quality to the same extent as large firms implying that the Dodd-Frank exemption will probably serve to keep the reporting quality of the exempted firms at lower than achievable levels.
We also note that as part of the Dodd-Frank legislation, the SEC was given a mandate to investigate raising the Section 404b exemption requirements from $75 million to $250 million in market capitalization (Dodd Frank 2010). While the SEC eventually decided to leave the exemption criterion at $75 million, this matter is still considered to be an open topic (SEC 2011). Our study informs this ongoing debate.
For more information on this study, please contact
Anthony D. Holder, PhD, CPA
Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting - MS 103
University of Toledo
Toledo, OH 43606-3390
Email: firstname.lastname@example.com
Web: http://homepages.utoledo.edu/aholder4/
Phone: 1.419.530.2560
Fax: 1.419.530.2873
Holder, A., K. Karim, and A. Robin. 2013. Was Dodd-Frank Justified in Exempting Small Firms from Section 404b Compliance? Accounting Horizons 27 (1): 1-22.


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SamanthaVine video. More videos (4)Free chat with SamanthaVine
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Celebrities Eating: See What Beyonce, Lauren Conrad + More Ate This Week [PHOTOS]
Get ready for your belly to rumble and your mouth to drool, as we're rounded up our weekly collection of photos featuring what celebs ate this week. Beyonce remained on her vegan challenge, while Lauren Conrad made pasta sauce with fresh, farmer's market ingredients. Delish!
See who made tacos while snowed in, who enjoyed some Diet Dr. Pepper and who baked! Hint: The baker is one of the famous Jessicas. Was it Alba? Simpson? Chastain? Nope! Scroll down to find out which Jess it was.


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Several of the sixteenth century frescoes of the life of St Benedict that are in the cloister at Monte Oliveto, the mother house of the Benedictine Olivetans, portray an easily identifiable devil.
He is brown, scrawny, with the regulation horns and dark pointed wings – not the beautiful rounded rainbow wings of the good angels; for all the world like a cockroach. He's there in the stories to get in the way, be a nuisance, distract and generally disrupt the saint's work both for the Kingdom and the growth of his monks.
The modern tourist stares blankly at these images for a few moments and moves on to the next and then, making the monks happy, to the monastic shop. The struggle to have a good time has long been superimposed over the battle between good and evil. It was different when the first pilgrims came to see these beautiful works. Overcome by piety, and if they could stretch far enough, they tried to scratch the devil off the fresco – leaving a mutilation of the original that the best restorers couldn't fix, but also a testimony to a different age when belief was still heavily saturated with the mythic imagination.
The same forces operate on us but we represent them differently. In Denys Arcan's film 'Jesus of Montreal' a group of unemployed actors get a commission to put on the Passion story in one of the city's biggest churches. The story is however lived out in their own lives and a memorable non-mythic representation of the meaning of Christ takes shape through the events. One of these is the Temptation when a smooth talking publicist takes the Jesus figure up to the top of an office building and promises him wealth, power and fame if he will sign up and do all he's told.
The BBC World Service represented the same force the other day in an interview about the financial crisis with a young New York trader: well-dressed, a frequent gym visitor, articulate, fast-talking, bright and cold as ice. To be frank with you, he confided, I dream at night of a recession or depression because these are the conditions when the most money is to be made. The world is not run by governments but Goldman Sachs. My job is to make money. Nothing will stop the crash so let's profit now. These dismal truths were not laced with false humility or expressions of regret but with the smile of a victor who cannot feel the plight of the defeated.
I thought of the Albanian café owner whose delicious but high cholesterol menu I used to be a patron of, while I listened to his life struggles and hopes for his children. For some time I had sensed his growing anxiety about business and when I passed the place the other day I saw it close-up and the windows whited out. I also remembered film footage of soldiers herding people on board the cattle trucks for Birkenau, a terrible enough scene in itself, but the devil was there in the cruel smile of some of the officers and men as they saw the degradation and panic of their victims.
The poor we will always have with us. The question repeated in every telling of the same story is how far away do the rich want to be from them?
In the exchange of goods and services that has ever made up most of human activity there should be more to find than lust for money. There should be a sense of purpose behind the trading, conviviality, time to think of people and how they are doing and how the wealth can be justly distributed. In science rather than trade a more cold and clinical eye might seem normal.
Yet the horizon-stretching march of science better conveys the meaning and joys of humanity. The world awaits verification of the tests of the Large Haron Collider at Cern, suggesting that the speed of light is not, after all, the fastest thing in the cosmos; and if so Einstein needs to be revised. If proven, we will see the world and ourselves (literally) in a new light: the mechanical limitations we have taken for granted since the first human tool was made will be exposed to new dimensions of consciousness.
Demonic fear and greed are driving the markets, herding us all towards the cliff-edge of civilized behaviour and decency. Maybe a new horizon in science will send the mystical and the physical off on a new waltz together. Maybe then we will see the cliff-edge itself as an opportunity to transform the values and goals we live for and the devil will, as always, be baffled by human goodness and creativity.
Laurence Freeman OSB
The World Community for Christian Meditation, of which Laurence Freeman OSB is director, has recently opened a new outreach program – "Meditatio" (www.wccmmeditatio.org)


text:
The general election of 2015 in the United Kingdom was held on May 7 to elect the country's 56th Parliament. Voting took place in all 650 parliamentary constituencies, each electing one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Right up to election day, polls and commentators were predicting that the election was too close to call and, most likely, would result in a hung parliament. That's what happened in 2010, when no party succeeded in winning a majority of seats and the Conservatives had to govern for the next five years in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Of course, the polls and commentators were quite wrong. The Conservatives won 330 seats and 37 percent of the vote, giving them a clear 15-seat working majority.
In retrospect, the polls significantly underestimated the Conservative vote. In a table compiled by the British Broadcasting Corporation ("BBC") (see Figure 1), 92 polls showed results ranging from 17 dead heats to three polls where the gap was 6 percent between Conservative and Labour. Most polls showed Labour leading, and not one of the 92 polls predicted the 7 percent lead the Conservatives actually would achieve. The closest was a 6 percent Conservative lead, and only two polls predicted that.
What wasn't the cause
This was the biggest poll upset in the UK since the Conservative vote was similarly underestimated in 1992. Analysis of that result by the Market Research Society settled on three reasons as to why the polls and pollsters got it wrong:
1. Conservatives are less likely to reveal their loyalties than Labour voters (see Figure 2). This phenomenon has become known as the "Shy Tory" effect.
2. Polls can be fooled by a late swing; that is, by voters who change their mind after being polled.
3. Samples have to be sufficiently large to represent the electorate accurately. In 1992, some samples were not large enough.
However, there is no reason to suspect that any of these were significant factors in the 2015 fiasco:
Shy Tories: Most polling companies changed their methodology to account for this factor after 1992.
Late swing: Polls conducted the day before and the day of the election did not detect a swing.
Sample sizes: These varied, of course, from poll to poll, but all 92 polls in the BBC collection sampled at least 1,000 respondents. That's enough to justify the usual error margin of ±3 percent, and some polls were much larger.
A fourth reason, dubbed "Lazy Labour," also has been proposed. The idea is that Labour voters are less likely than Conservatives to turn out and vote. However, Lazy Labours, like Shy Tories, also can be compensated for, and this is not, in any case, a big enough factor to explain the gap between what the polls predicted would happen and what actually did occur.
Research that FTI Consulting conducted in May 2015 just after the election confirmed that of all the party persuasions, Conservative voters are least likely to answer to pollsters and are least likely to be truthful if they do, confirming the Shy Tory effect (and perhaps giving rise to a new "Lying Tory" factor) (see Figure 2). As noted, the Shy Tory factor is compensated for by most pollsters. But the misleading ones may have contributed to the impression of an inconclusive result; that is, no clear majority for any party. Adding more noise, we found that young people were more likely to participate in research than older voters but less likely to be truthful.
The forecast of a hung parliament was important because, as our May research also showed, voters didn't like the idea of a coalition government. They had had one since the election in 2010, and, for a variety of reasons, 77 percent of UK voters didn't want a repeat. And a full 83 percent of UK managers, for instance, believed that an outright victory for one party — any party — would be better for business than a minority government or another coalition.
So what did happen?
This year, a huge chunk of the electorate seemed to be up for grabs. According to a poll FTI Consulting conducted in February, 19 percent of voters had not decided how they were going to cast their ballot, and a further 30 percent said they could be persuaded to change their mind. In other words, just a few months before the election, almost half (49 percent) of the nation could not be relied upon to vote any one way (see Figure 3).
Consequently, the published pre-election polls predicting no clear majority for any party unsettled voters and caused them to vote differently from the way they would have if those polls had forecast a clear majority. In a political manifestation of the observer effect in physics (which refers to the changes that the act of observing a phenomenon makes on it), the published polls did not reflect the public thinking as much as to help shape it, making it impossible for the polls to reflect accurately what was transpiring. The uncertainty the pollsters forecast encouraged 26 percent of voters to vote, 10 percent strongly. And it prompted 23 percent of the electorate to vote tactically, many in pursuit of a clear majority (see Figure 4).
And so the polls were upended.
What pollsters didn't take into account
Pollsters typically ask people: "If there were an election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" That tends to elicit a response about which party a person prefers. Usually, that's a reasonable way to forecast results.
But this time, something else was going on.
Voting behavior was affected by what pollsters were telling people — that there would be a hung parliament. So when they cast their vote, voters asked themselves a different question from what the pollsters had asked. Instead of asking their party preference, voters asked themselves: "Which party would be likelier to win a clear majority, and how can I help make that happen?" That is, they voted tactically.
As Michael Bruter, Ph.D., a political scientist at the London School of Economics, said recently in an interview with Nature: "When you ask people who they are going to vote for, they very often think about what is best for them. But when you go back to the same people after the election and ask them who they voted for, we find that they voted much more in terms of what they think is best for the country."
So even the very last polls prior to the vote failed to predict the right result. But the single exit poll, conducted as people left the voting booths, was dead on.
The difference was between the question pollsters asked in advance and the question voters asked themselves as they picked a box to put an X in.
What pollsters should learn from 2015
For a host of reasons, including the expense of polling large numbers of people and the challenge of identifying smaller sample populations that will represent the whole, it is extremely difficult to predict election outcomes accurately.
Furthermore, the tried-and-true method of asking people which party they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, which is both simple to understand and easy to administer, is likely to be the wrong tool today. We need to gather data that reflect a more complex political environment in which large segments of the population are voting tactically, as we saw in the recent UK election.
Bruter and others argue that it's more effective to ask people about their values and match those with the parties. But no one would deny that such a poll would be more difficult and expensive to conduct and interpret.
And perhaps as communication — via mobile phone, text, email and social media — continues to get easier, voter sentiment becomes more volatile, with opinions and arguments proliferating and dispersing more widely and quickly. This further complicates the pollster's task of taking a snapshot of today and predicting what that picture will mean for tomorrow.
Even if pollsters devise a way to account for all these complexities, it's unlikely — given that their main objective is to get headline-grabbing numbers into the morning's papers — they ever would decide that it would be worth the time and expense to do so.
The recently announced British Polling Council inquiry aims to determine what went wrong in May so that future polls can be more accurate. But the UK went through a similar examination following the 1992 election in which many polls predicted a hung parliament and the subsequent Conservative majority took pollsters by surprise. We could likely have learned the right lesson from that episode — that in the complex multi-party voting environment of the UK, a single simple question isn't an adequate determinant of how people will vote. But we didn't take heed. Instead, we chose to believe that, in our increasingly complex and digitally connected world, a few weighting adjustments (aka fudge factors) would suffice.
But that didn't happen this time and probably won't the next time. At its best, polling can help us understand different groups and factors that influence the vote. At worst, and as it seems to have done in this most recent election, it throws a spanner wrench into the works.
Research Methodology
Research was conducted online by FTI Consulting during the following time periods and is reflective of the UK general population aged 18 years and older:
February 2015 (pre election): n=2,111 respondents from February 6-9, 2015
May 2015 (post election): n=2,066 respondents from May 8-11, 2015


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Calm day at Camelback
It was relatively quiet around here today, which is a good thing. We're actually having a departmental BBQ tonight, as Spring Training is a great time for bonding within the team's front office.
As of right now, we're still scheduled to go to arbitration with Andre tomorrow and I know that everyone here is hoping that we don't have to go. I've learned quite a bit about the process in the last couple weeks in talking to both Andre and my colleagues in the front office and I know that none one really wants to have a hearing. That said, we'll see if they can somehow come to a middle ground beforehand and if not, I'm sure both sides will handle it professionally. We've seen a few cases in the past go to a hearing and fortunately, while it's never fun, I don't believe it has affected the Dodger player's performance on the field that season.
In any event, regarding the question about the LA Times article that ran last week, I'm happy to clarify it. There has never been any doubt, nor have we tried to deny the fact that financially, it will be better for the team in Glendale than in Vero Beach. I think it's safe to say that that is the case with any new facility, even if we had built a new one in Vero Beach. What we've repeatedly said, however, is that this move was made because of the fans' ability to be a part of it. One is a cause and the other is the effect. If we thought it was better for the majority of our fans in Los Angeles to trek across the country, we would have surely stayed in Vero but I think we've learned over time that our fans simply weren't doing that. In fact, I grew up in LA and I didn't know a single person who had ever gone to Spring Training at Dodgertown, which is a shame.
The story did talk about how ticket sales and sponsorships are not what we expected them to be and yes, our very experienced COO Dennis Mannion did state that the economy is a major reason for that. We all believe this and we're seeing it in every walk of life, not just baseball. However, just because projections aren't where we thought they'd be in year one doesn't mean that it was a bad decision. Our hope is to be at Camelback Ranch for 60-plus years, just like Vero Beach, and I know that if you take the chance to bring your family out here, you're going to love the experience. Right now, fans are getting the chance to interact with players up close and personal and that's very rare in baseball or any sport, for that matter.
And finally, I truly do believe that the Dodgers have taken the economy into account. We had our best season on the field in 20 years and very easily could have utilized that success to raise ticket prices. But, we did not do so while several other teams did.
We still have tickets that are very, very reasonably priced all over the stadium, both in LA and here in Arizona. Eight bucks for a Spring Training game or $10 for a regular season game is pretty darn cheap in today's world. So is twenty-something dollars for seats that are between the bases and practically in the front row at Camelback. And five dollars for parking is hard to argue with (the same as Vero Beach).
I really think you'd be surprised how often ownership and the front office team talk about the issues that fans face and how we can help make the experience better. We're far from perfect, but I know that we all come to work every day and try to accomplish the three goals that have been set forth by the McCourts – competing for a championship year in and year out, an unparallelled fan experience and dedication in the community. This blog is a great way for you to share your input and know that it's being read, considered, and often acted upon by those of us who work for the team and who love the organization as much as you do.
No Comments
Josh, we appreciate the updates that you have given us. All of us have one thing in common….WE LOVE THE DODGERS! I, for one, am looking forward to coming to ST. This will be a first for me. You are right. I never even thought I could go cross country to ST. It was just too far away. Again, thank you for all the info!
Thanks for the update, Josh. I was hoping Andre wouldn't have to go to arbitration but, no matter what happens, I know he will be a true professional and not let it affect his play on the field or his wonderful connection with his fans.
Looks like the Straw is giving us Ball 8… or is it 8 Ball…
Seriously, put the kids to bed before reading this one (definitely 18-and-over material).
nsblues ~ and, they thought Joe's book was bad! Talk about breaking the "code"!
Josh, you are correct that most Dodger fans from So Cal have never been to a Dodger ST game. Vero is just too far away. I traveled to Florida one Spring for business and was fortunate to see a ST game at Vero. Although I would have loved to go to ST every year, I have not been sine that visit over 10 years ago. I am taking my son (now 14 and a huge Dodger fan) to a couple games this spring. We are both looking forward to this trip. If the Dodgers were still in Vero, I likely would have never made this trip with my son. Thank you Mr. McCourt for doing the right thing for Dodger fans in So Cal by moving ST out west.
ns, thanks for the link. Booze, broads, and baseball–how retro!! Nothing new here. Guess the "Straw" needs a little retirement nest egg after he p@#$ed away,literally and figuratively, the fortune he made during his playing days. Outside of Mets fans and the Mets players of that era, I can't imagine there will be much interest in Strawberry's 20-plus year old war stories. What I find objectionable is that Strawberry, by not naming names, implicates everyone and noone in these shenanigans. Better he should've written an autobiography….Good luck, Andre, on your hearing tomorrow. It's ridiculous that the D's and Andre are going to arbitration over, essentially, 500k, the cost of one of our pitching cattle call suspects.
bpr ~ I agree with you on Strawberry's book and the poor way Andre's situation was handled.
Good Evening ITD readers and writers!!!
Josh – thank you for the updates, and thank you for letting us voice our opinions. I am hoping for a last minute agreement with Andre and the Dodgers. I just want him, and our other young guns, to be Dodgers for a long time, and I just feel this process is not a positive towards this happening.
Josh, the updates are great and I appreciate the fact that you read the blog and respond. It looks as if it is going to be a great facility. Although, after having been to Vero 4 times at Fantasy Camp and I was able to finally make ST last year…Vero was a great place to visit…It is hard admitting that the Dodgers needed to make this move and now that I live in Texas, it should be easier for me to make it…although the bad economy is going to stop me this year…I have alot of friends that will be there…Have a great time and keep the great updates coming…
Also say hi to Nancy Gollnick for me,,,it is great that the Dodgers have asked her to come out to Arizona after all her hard work she has done for them in Vero…She is a great lady…We love you Nancy!!!!
Andre, I hope you guys settle tonight, if not go in there and rip off the Dodgers head and hand it back to them on a silver platter….You deserve all the money…you play with pride, effort and you do not whine about playing time….You produced at the plate and in the field….And in the community…Frank he should be the face of the new Young Dodgers, you are a PR man, for godsakes, take care of him.
Jungar, I did not really understand your point on Pierre in the last thread…You want him to play more? You were not very clear…
nellyjune ~ don't you find it amazing how Ned says we love Andre……….he was one of my first signings……and then they hang him out to dry?
ramslover – very well said about Andre. It seems you figured it out who he is this time 🙂
trublu – I know, if you love him so much, why is this happening? I really don't care if Andre isn't the one budging (which I find highly unlikely) then he still deserves it IMO.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Andre.
Josh – Well, I was was born and raised as a Dodger fan in Southern California and I know at least 20 different families, not just people, that went back to Spring Training in Vero Beach including my family 3 times in the last 5 years. As far as the McCourts addressing the fans questions, which fans are talking about? I've never seen nor heard of any forum where the McCourts have spoken to any fan who wishes to address them. Sure, they have done meet and greets with certain season tickets holders and the bloggers group, but that does not constitute the average fan. If the Power Couple want to know what we have on our mind, tell them a Town Hall meeting like some other teams have would be a great start. And, no, they can't charge admission to it, either.
BTW, even though you clarified the Dodgers official decision about McRanch, you specifically said in a January post that no one was talking about the revenue that was going to be made as a result of McRanch, but everyone was talking about the great experience the fans would have. Judging by Dennis Mannion's comments in the article, that may not have been entirely the case. Also, since I seem to be taking you to task tonight, that was not the best team the Dodgers have fielded in the last 20 years. The Dodgers won a World Championship in 1988, remember? If my math is correct, that was 20 years ago.
I want Juan Pierre playing as many games as he can for the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies or Giants that's what I want. If you are trying to get me goin again (LOL) don't.
Hey did you guys see that article on the homepage..
As if he wasn't already my favorite Dodger…
"…Of course we want him back and of course we need him. He's a freak." (Kemp on Manny)
And Now Torre is my hero as well:
"I don't even want to think about him (Manny) not being here," said Torre (With a vision of Juan Pierre wearing his hat under his batting helmet)
Ah, come on, Jungar, we want to get you going again! lol
The Dodgers of the past routinely made the playoffs and did not always raise ticket prices either. Besides, this is not just many other teams, this is the Los Angeles Dodgers. As a fan base, we expect more out of the ownership then just being like other teams. If that's what we were looking for, FOX might as well still own the team. Oh wait a minute, they kind of do, don' they?
the dude Ludwig from the cards just got 3.75..Dre should come in a tad below that don't ya think?
Ryan Ludwick
.299 .375 .591 .966
.305 .375.510 .885
well that post did not work out so well…lets try again…how many of you guys are on facebook and is there an Inside the Dodgers group…if not lets start one…We can make so people can put a name to a face…I can only imagine what BPB mugshot will be, a paper bag with an LA on it….So what do you think?
Also Jungar, I thought I had you going, but you caught on to me…
Gonna be kinda hard for Dre to get his asking price compared to Ludwick's numbers. I think 3.2, 3.25 is a good compromise that both sides can walk away happy.
I knew it! and yeah Ram here ya go…(and Everyone.)
ITD Facebook already started…
ramslover – many of us are on facebook. jungar started ITD facebook group. Start there and you should find those of us that are on facebook….there are quite a few now 🙂
nevermind – thanks jungar 🙂
Yes I jsut looked it up….thats great….joining now!!!!
Man we really need to work on the frequency people visit the Facebook sight eh? Wheres JHall, Joe Pierre, BPB, Dishguy, Amy, Trublu, and everyone else…
Nelly where has Jhall been or is he incognito with his name in code?
What a proud night…I joined ITD facebook and also the I love Scrapple group….Wow….
I prefer to remain one of life's mysteries – the stuff of myth and legend for cryptozoologists to try and prove exists. You know, like Ned's intelligence.
yeah we only advertised it one time..it would be great if everyone got on, so coll to put a face to a name !!! Plus if u add me as your friend i can show u my photo album of Juan Pierre pics I have collected over the years. j/k
bpb – that's what makes you so enchanting ……the mystery behind you 🙂
I would be very surprised to see Ethier win his case tomorrow. With Ludwick making 3.7 million after his third full season with better numbers. I think they can come to an agreement before Kim Ng does what she does best. 3.25 million seems like a good middle point otherwise Ethier will probably end up with 2.65 million. It's just business as I don't see it affecting game play whatsoever. 9 days until first spring game!
That's funny jungar!! LMAO!!!!
Yah the only thing Dre cares about is doing better than last year, I agree Alex. He'll get his money. This is a huge year for him. Age 27. Here we go. One year I drafted a fantasy team of only players age 27 or 28 and won the whole thing.Those are the best years and all of our guys will be there soon!! I can't wait for the games, the live blogging is the best part of being around here. The highs and lows, the arguments and second guessing. Let's just hope that this year, with manny we can settle in on a line up so we don;t have those crazy adventures daily
ramslover – jhall is looking forward to Spring Training with us. He has just been very busy with work lately.
Jungar, I just took you up on that…
It's funny Nelly but there is a slight obsession with JP. My friends say things, man we were doing fine until you went all Juan Pierre on us…You can be the top trial attorney in LA getting criminals freed everyday, arguing with me in a bar, defending Coletti, and i'll go all Juan Pierre on you and you will loose the case. lol
Alex – It's great to see you again. I know Andre will get at least the 2.65, and he will have a great year, no doubt about that.
jungar – I am the same way. One mention of the name and it's enough to get me started.
Yeah, you cannot feel too bad for these guys getting only 2.65 million…an 8x last raise….I have gotten it the other way this year and have lost 60 % of my monthly income…so it is hard to feel sorry for them….I think professional athletics will be under going a big reality check these next 3-5 years…When these tv contracts are up and with all the sponsors pulling out, revenues are going to drop…Now the big boys will do ok, but the little guys and older guys will be hurting…
I like the fact there are more incentive based contracts this year…it is about time…Maybe no more 7-10 pitchers getting 5-6 mil…now it will be 2-3 (sorry about their luck) mil and incentives….
Well good night all…turning it in and ready to wake up and celebrate birthday number 6 for my little princess…
Happy Birthday to your little princess!!! Take Care and God Bless Ramslover 🙂
Here jungar – this should tempt you – LOL!!!
Pierre and the Dodgers would welcome a trade. The problem is the Dodgers can't find anyone to say "Thank You" so they can actually say "Your welcome".
Andre still could win in arbitration.
According to USA TODAY:
"Ryan Ludwick and the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to a $3.7 million, one-year contract and avoided an arbitration hearing that was scheduled for Tuesday.
The outfielder had asked for $4.25 million when exchanging proposed arbitration figures last month and the team had offered $2.8 million, making Monday's settlement $175,000 above the midpoint."
I personally think Lutwick was worth a lot more than 4.2 million given his numbers and considering what the Phillies paid Ryan Howard. The significance here is that the arbitrators made no ruling in Lutwick 's case. I think if he proceeded to arbitration he would have been awarded $4.2 million. In fact, I think he could've been awarded more had he asked for it. So, Andre's case is still very much alive.
I look for them to settle for $3.2 million. If Andre loses, I go to no dodger game this year.
rintinjim – It's great to see you on ITD once again. All we can do is hope Andre comes out of this ready to get it done just like he has done year after year, regardless of the outcome. I have no doubts he will, but I don't think management is going to hear the end of it, if the outcome is anything less than positive.
Andre is a very sensitive person from what I can see. And yet The Dodgers have spared no effort to shake his confidence. Haggling over a few hundred thousand dollars for a player of his caliber is ridiculous. Look how much the Red Sox paid for JD Drew, a right fielder of dubious quality.
The Dodgers should be interested in building up goodwill with Andre. I would hate to be looking at his box scores when he is playing for the Red Sox or Yankees.
What are they thinking?
I only go to the dodger games to see Andre (and of course Manny brought electricity to dodger Stadium.) With a beaten-down Andre, I would be a very unhappy fan.
Okay maybe I still would go. But I won't buy a beer or hotdog.
Josh, if you want the fans take on how to make it a better experience going to a game, how about putting a better team on the field. A team that has a chance to go to the World Series without having to buy tickets. How about spending some money on players still in their prime and paying the up and comers what they deserve. It's true the economy is not good but other teams have managed to improve, the Dodgers are going backwards IMO.
Boy, this place has been a real downer lately:(
I just don't get all the negativity. It's Spring Training!!! The Grand Game is starting anew. The sounds of gloves popping and balls hitting bats…some of the best sounds in the whole world.
Baseball is a business too. A great game like baseball with its appeal will always be big business.
McRanch is a whole lot closer to the vast majority of Dodgers fans. It is a great thing for the team from a baseball standpoint and for those fans that like to go to ST. Once again, other than a few super high priced tickets for the Beverly Hills market, the tickets are reasonable. About the same as the Angels, Giants, and Cubs ST tix. Therefore I do not begrudge them trying to create new revenue streams. We had better find more revenue to try to compete with the new Mets stadium. And it seems to me to be reasonable to try to sell sponsorships…just a bad economic time to do it in.
I do not get too upset about the business side because I realize it is a business. I try to focus on the field…
By the way, cy, last season was the 20th season since 1988, so Josh's statement is accurate. 2009 will be the 21st…
Andre's going to get a gigantic raise either way. And if he's too sensative to play hard, then… And because it's a business, Andre will go to the highest bidder when he becomes a FA. My frustration is it seems like they are not negotiating a long term deal…oh well.
And show me a team who doesn't care about the business side. The new awesome owners of the Red Sox? Did you see how they treated their Captain? It is a business. Millionaires playing for billionaires. I do not feel sorry for either side; I just understand it.
I watch because the best players in the world play the greatest game in the world. And I bleed Dodger Blue. If I thought the McCourts were totally screwing us I would be irate. As it is, they have made a few bad decisions on FA's, most teams do, but I have liked their ownership relative to other baseball ownerships. How angry were all of you when the Dodgers only made the playoffs twice in the 15 previous years? I can't imagine. I still loved the Blue, except when they added silver, and hoped for better times. Which these last five years have been relative to the previous 15 seasons.
Go Dodgers!!!
Good Morning ITD, Dodgerfaithful
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Bring the Ring to LA in 2009!!!!!
It is a beautiful day again. Enjoy everybody…. 🙂
Alright one more time: COME BACK MANNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dish – Josh's statement, "We had our best season on the field in 20 years," and my statement, "that was not the best team the Dodgers have fielded in the last 20 years. The Dodgers won a World Championship in 1988", which was twenty years ago, as you stated. Unless my understanding of grammar is incorrect, saying best season in twenty years would include 1988 to 2008, correct? If so, that comment is factually incorrect, is it not?
Good Morning ITD readers and writers!!!
8 days and 4 hours until our first Spring Training game – can't wait!!!!!! In the meantime, best of luck to you Andre in your hearing today if it's needed. Your fans are behind you in whatever happens.
It's a beautiful day here in the Southern Californian desert compared to yesterday. We are eventually heading back home today to the Central Valley.
Good Morning Dodger4life – How are we doing this morning?
dishguy – No worries ~ once the games begin, it's all about Dodger blue and winning. I am not going to say all negativity goes away, but it's mostly based on the decisions made on the field versus the front office.
nellyjine is right about the negativity. As soon as the boys in blue are on the field, we will all be cheering for them. However, I still think we could have done a better job of getting the right players and treating the fans with a little more respect.
cy ~ Counting the 1988 season there have been 21 seasons through the 2008 season. Starting with the 1989 season the 2008 season was the 20th season…therefore Josh's math was correct. Just count starting with 1989.
Nelly ~ I hope so…I want a place to be happy in, not depressed. Baseball is a place of great joy for me.
On paper, the starting 8 are weaker than what we put out there last season at the beginning of the year. The pitching staff is much weaker looking, again on paper, than what we started with last season. For a team that was 3 games away from the pennant, that's not a good job by the front office to put together a winner as they claim they want to do every year. If they want to rebuild, then call it what it is. This is one of the problems I have with Frank 'n' Furter. They say one thing, but their actions say another.
Now Frank and Ned have put all of their eggs in the Manny basket and Boras knows it. Right or wrong Ned didn't pursue other avenues (Dunn, Abreu, Griffey, Anderson, Burrell) and so they'll end up living with an overpriced Manny, or dying with Pierre. Unfortunately it appears that both the young guns and the coaching staff are convinced that its Manny that makes them go, so psychologically they've already one foot in the grave if Manny doesn't sign, and the rest of the season becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Pitching staff-wise reality from paper's a little different. Penny/Lowe/Billz/Kuroda and Loaiza were statistically better coming into last season than Billz/Kuroda/Wolf/Kersh and Schmidt or Vargas. But Penny blew up, Loaiza was his usual horrible, and Kuroda was so-so. Billz and Lowe had solid years. I expect Billz to repeat, Wolf to take up some of Lowe's slack, Kersh to progress quite a bit, Kuroda to better his last season, and no one can do worse than Bloaiza.
The pen's young, but capable considering they've the same three that brought them down the home stretch last year – Wade, Kuo and Brox. Mota's = Proctor. McDonald could easily = Saito. Elbert or Stults = Beimel. Dennis Weaver or Milton the Toaster might take Park's spot, which in my opinion is the hardest to fill given the names available.
The West as a whole is weaker hitting, maybe a little stronger pitching this year. The right breaks, this team could finish first. They talk themselves out of it, they could also finish fourth.
bpb ~ very good assessment!
Good Morning bpb!!! Are you having and "enchanted" morning? Nice points as always.
Once the season starts, it's all about proving management wrong, and I think the young guns are going to have an awesome season, and I agree, if they believe in themselves, then they can carry the team (Manny or not) into another western division title. I always think of that one series in Houston where it was just the young guns and Jeff Kent out there, and they did fabulous during those weeks during that series and then some after. I think pitching is the key, but they are also the unknown. We don't know what will happen with Kershaw this year and the rest of the young pitchers. Maybe there is the next Linsecum out there who will light it up and be the surprise of the season. I feel if Billz and Kuroda come out like we know they can, then anything is possible with the rest of them.
Take care ITD readers and writers. I am leaving to go back up north to the central valley. Have a wonderful day, and I will catch up to you later this evening.
Best Wishes Andre in your hearing today 🙂
red pen – "an enchanted" not "and enchanted" maybe I just had the need to writed enchanted a couple more times – LOL!!!!!
Okay – red pen again "write" instead of "writed"……I know, I know…proofread first.
Go Dre!, Go DODGERS!!! Can't wait for the season to begin!
Obi!! Any Juan Pierre thought bubbles???
I still think our LFer is on a different roster if Manny does not sign. As the economy and ticket sales worsen, especially for teams that start out slowly, there are going to be some really good players available. And I read somewhere, on espn.com I think, that those players will be had for a salary dump and a low level prospect rather than high level prospect(s) like in the past. Many teams will be so desperate to dump salaries. Remember a lot of owners have lost a huge portion of their net worth during this horrible economic slide.
I think we have a good chance to win the division, but will have a difficult time in the playoffs unless we pick up an ace during the season. I agree with Frank/Ned not to trade our young core for pitching (Peavy) or giving huge long term salaries for the FA pitchers that were available. But we are a year or two away from having a dominating staff without some huge pickups.
Gooooood morning, ITD!!!
It's just me thinking, but if there's negative stuff, people are unhappy. Personally, the McCourts have made me unhappy since it was announced they were trying to buy the Dodgers without any money and nothing has yet changed my mind. Lord, how I wish Peter still owned the team. Oh well, he doesn't and they do and we all have to live with it, like it or not. But it doesn't mean I have to like it.
My day will be made if Andre wins the decision. In there were any justice, his people would be able to use his off-the-field work as well as the "team-player" evidence that we've discussed here so often to help swing the pendulum. But I doubt that kind of thinking isn't allowed in the process. It makes too much sense.
Meanwhile: they're still thinking of the O-Dog:
Ethier and the Dodgers have settled.
3.1 million with incentives.
Congratulations Andre
Congratulation Dodgers
So far most all transactions have been last minute deals. I am guessing Manny and Boras can see a pattern here.
Good Job!!!!!
Now lets add Manny!!!!!
Bring ther Ring to L.A.in 2009!!!!!!
Thanks Alex!
Dish – the problem I see with the salary dump players is that Frank won't take on those kinds of guys. He didn't last year when the economy was still OK. We ended up giving away what should've been our everyday 3B, a promising young reliever, and a catcher that is now the #1 prospect for Cleveland, the latter two so that Frank wouldn't have to pay $2M to Blake. If that's Ned's "fluid roster" plan, he'll empty the rest of the minors trying to acquire rentals for no money.
IMO, no one will take on JP because he just isn't a very good everyday kind of ballplayer. His skillset is so narrow in scope, you'd have to value speed above all else to even make his acquisition halfway attractive. His D is virtually nonexistant other than running down a few fly balls, and once he gets there he can't do anything with it. His OBP is atrocious, and he has no power to help make up for it. He's Herb Washington with a bat… A very weak little bat.
This is why its become almost imperative that they sign Manny, and Boras knows it. Two weeks of ST watching JP in left will be all it will take for NedCo to cave in and give Manny 4 years. Any line-up with JP in it will be immediately improved with him out of it, no matter what name you plug in.
bpb, if we don't sign Manny I'd hope for a Jones-style release of Pierre and go with DY/Repko/anyonebutjuanpy left field. I'd rather live with that than risk blocking Lambo with a 4-year deal. Unless we have an out after 2.
Good afternoon ITD, it was great getting to meet, Nelly, Trublu (psss she looks like Mickey Mouse), Dodger4life on Facebook and I plan on adding more of the ITD family as friends…Jungar you have not added me yet…I will haunt you until you do!!! I will start writing Pro Juan Pierre Blogs until you add me as your friend!!!
Dishguy, I know what you mean. Last year I spent alot of the offseason protecting Torre and Pierre, because I like you want to have everything positive…As you get to know everyone on here, this is what makes ITD great, is that you are going to get alot of different view points and not all will be positive, but the underlying theme is that everyone on here are passionate about the Dodgers!!!!
So, do not take everything as a big negative but rather as a way that they can vent how they feel the management is not handling the situations as they see fit…YOu may not agree, and you very eloquently state your points, but it is their opinion and you will grow to love everyone on here…
Nelly, this Andre dude did ok eh?
ramslover ~ I can tell everyone on here are wonderful people.
What a surprise Trump Casinos filing Chapter 11 for the 3rd time….
By the way have we gotten rid of Pierre yet…
Tru..my 72 hours is almost up…Come on Manny sign!!!!!
Jungar, amazing how the Pierre threat got you to add me…that is funny!!! Have a great day!
dish, not everyone….. 🙂 We have a few idiots who stop by from time to time. But, as someone remarked a couple of days ago, if they resort to namecalling you'll be very gratified by all the support around here.
Definitely Eric. Don't get me wrong, Manny 2 years max. I'm just afraid Ned caves in once they see JP in left again (or heaven forbid, center.) I really don't even care if its Manny, just ANYONE but Pierre.
Two things are certain as of right now.
1. JoJo will play JP in left period over Repko, DY and Paul.
2. JP will play like JP.
Honestly though, ANYONE taking JP's place makes the line-up better:
Furcal – JP – Ethier – Blake – Loney – Kemp – Martin – DeWitt
Furcal – Ethier – Kemp – Blake – Loney – Martin – DeWitt – Xavier Paul
Even Paul who's never had a ML AB makes it a more potent line-up. Plug in anyone you want – Paul, DY, Repko, Lambo… literally anyone. Doesn't matter where you try and hide JP in the order either 8, 9, doesn't matter.
Add all JPs shortcomings up and put a huge pricetag on it and he's totally untradeable.
Whoa, how's that fresh air??? LOL!!
Well as far as on the field…
Rotation…I like the rotation of
1.Billz..a real ace in the making. Lowe was not one, very consistent but not an ace and Penny was a moron…17-20 wins..also earn the players respect and protect them knoick someone down if they go after Manny..Russ, Andre, matt..etc..
2. Kuroda..if healthy will be better this year..15-18 wins
3. Wolf, will win 14-16 games is my guess…he should be stronger year 3 out of shoulder surgery.
4. Kershaw..just trust your stuff young man and do not overthrow (same for Billz)…12-15 wins
5. Schmidt..never have been a big fan , but it would be nice to get one solid year from him..if he is 80-90% of his old self he would be a solid number 5..but realistically probably not..
5a…Elbert..would love to see him take over the 5 spot by June…Let him work out of the BP ala Hershiser, Welch, Valenzuela did when they first came up, it worked out pretty well…
5b…Mcdonald…very impressive in the playoffs..I would do the same as Elbert..BP…then spot start..
BP..I am not worried about Broxton…he may struggle a little but he has dominating stuff and as long as Joe (Big if) uses him correctly and keeps him fresh he will be a very good closer…Saito spoiled us..
Wade, Elbert, Mota, very solid…Weaver I always thought was nasty for short periods so the BP may be ok and he is in great shape and he is still young…Wildcard…
Beimel, was good but not spectacular…always seemed to have runners on and allow inherited runners to score…we may still be able to get him on the cheap…
Enchanted is back…Yeah!!!! I like Paul…in the 3 games I saw in ST last year the little guy rips the ball….gap power and good speed…I do not know if he will ever get a chance to contribute…sometimes I wish the NL had the DH…
Its spring, what can I say? Avoiding arbitration with Ethier gave me an iota of hope.
The bag's still handy though.
As far as the BP, I would not mind seeing them sign Jason Izrah..forget trying to spell…he pitched for the Cardinals…former closer to help Broxton develop…supposedly he is healthy again..
Alex Rodriguez was "naive" and only injected an OTC "energy boost."
Selig doesn't want any blame upon himself for the steroid era.
Nice to see its the SOS. What must it be like to be a man and own-up to your actions. Does anyone blieve the crap spewn forth by either one of these… gentlemen?
Booooo………………To the people counceling A – Rod. Let's quit sifting through this steroids thing, like a bunch of lawyers and fix it and move on!!!
Bring the Ring to L.A. in 2009!!!!!!!!
enchanted ~ welcome back! I hope in the next day or so, we can make sure your paper bag stays in retirement.
I am so pleased management avoided arbitration with Andre. One hurdle down, one more to go……sign Manny! We have to fullfill ramslover's prediction!
Afternoon ITD boys & girls!
Enchanted! Glad to read you back with your original name! I love that name!
Weather says sunny tomorrow!! Woohoo!!
I forgot my phasebook password but you can see pic of me at
Manny Ramirez's 'Bible Verse of the Day' (dedicated to Juan Pierre)
" So the last shall be first, and the first last for many be called, but few chosen." – Matthew 20:16 –
I'm glad that the Dodgers and Andre reached a last second agreement before the hearing, BUT SHAME ON YOU Ned for letting it go that far. After wasting millions of dollars on ridiculous past contracts, how could you put someone like Andre through the wringer? He was treated so poorly by management in the past, yet he hung in there and outperformed the many poor management choices. Now when you could have rewarded him and shown your appreciation for his kind of character, he was again treated very shabbily. SHAME, SHAME, SHAME ON YOU!
I do applaud most of Ned's other actions/non-actions this year, however. The releasing of Jones, the financial restraints, the standing firm against Boras, etc. I do agree it would be nice to have Manny back, but not at the dollars and contract length that he is seeking. I hope that Ned doesn't panic in the end and cave in on Manny. I wouldn't go more than one year with a team option second year, and with the current economic situation and player market, $25 million seems too high to me as well. Just the fact that no other team has made an offer or signed him should be a huge red flag for anything extravagant here. All those other teams are not stupid, so I hope Ned can read the tea leaves and do the right thing.
"Many were cold, but few were frozen"
George Donner
Well, it's nice to see that the Dodgers and Andre settled. Now, if I could just figure out how to count seasons correctly, everything might be okay:)
To address the negativity comment: I don't know if anyone has realized this yet or not, but I generally do not hammer on the product on the field too much. I realize the players the team has are the players that the have and the coaching staff tries to do what is best with those resources. I may not always agree how those resources are used (Jones and Pierre getting PT last year), but it tends to work itself out by season's end.
However, I will continue to pound on the business operations of the team until I believe that things improve. Just because Frank walked into a good baseball situation and the team has made the playoffs 3 out of 5 years doesn't mean he makes good business decisions, especially where the fans are concerned. Parking going up in price while simultaneously adding more spots? Having to redo the baseline seating after the first year because the original setup was so poorly engineered (don't think we as customers still aren't paying for that one)? Raising tickets prices at least 25% since he bought the team? I'm not saying Frank doesn't have the right as an owner to do whatever he wants with the team, but for him to talk about the uniqueness and specialness of the Dodgers while using excuses like every other team is doing it so why shouldn't I does not fly with me (or other posters on this board either from what I gather). I apologize if I do not always have the Polyanna view on things, but as Reggie Smith told me at a meet and greet a couple years ago, paraphrasing, "It still might say Dodgers on the uniform, but the McCourt Dodgers do not resemble the organization that I grew to love."
Good afternoon ITD
It's too bad that Andre's contract could not be settled before this. Andre being Andre will go on and play his heart out anyway. Everytime I have spoken to him, I have truly been impressed with his maturity. He will show the management that he is worth every penny. Besides that, through all his charitable works he has shown that he is a wonderful person as well.
Hi trublu, crz, Nelly june, Dodger4life, Dodgereric, enchanted, Dodger faithful. All that is left is to sign Manny and win some games. I think that our potpourri of pitchers may turn out to be fantastic. Last season it seemed that although many were on DL, they triumphed anyway. Look for Kuroda to break out as the ace. Unfortunately with Saito gone, no one speaks Japanese anymore. He is alone except for his interpreter. Maybe I should work on my Japanese. I expect MacDonald to break out huge.
I signed up on Facebook and used my favorite picture of myself which so happens to have Russell next to me!!! So trublu why do you look so much like Mickey Mouse??
heartruss ~ just saw you on Facebook and suggested some friends for you………..all ITDers of course!
Enchanted I see you put the bag up for now. Nice to have you back 🙂
All we need now is Manny,( Yes I still have faith ) and the unknowndodgerfan to reveal his true identity 🙂
I dont have the answers to when either of those things will happen 🙂
Heres to Andre and also to enchanteds return 🙂
Sammy Hagar ~ Mas Tequila….
8 days!
Good evening ITD'ers!
I hope everyone is well.
Dishguy if I haven't said welcome,… Welcome!
There was some pretty good conversation going back & forth the other day regarding the McCourts and both sides of the "aisle" so to speak made good points.
I've been a McCourt supporter and given them a chance. In the last few months though I have been increasingly on the negative side. Not because they won't spend $$$ on Free Agents (Because I don't want them to spend bucks on a bunch of PVL'ers). But because they say things like; the economy is tough and so to spend $$$ on Free Agents (Who aren't really Free!) isn't a good idea with people having a tough time making it; & then buy 2 houses in Malibu for $48 million.
Or saying they are moving the ST headquarters west so fans can get better access to the team only to jack up the prices for the seats. They are saving tons of $$$ not having players & staff fly to/from Florida.
It's things like that that annoy me. They bought the team. They own it. If I buy a car, I own it. So I don't want people telling me what to do. But if I don't get new tires when they go bald and my passengers get upset at me for not maintaining my car I guess they have that right. But they also have the right not to ride with me. That's probably not a good analogy but I hope the point is understood.
That is a couple of reasons why many here are tired of them.
Now I do feel that having ST in Arizona is a win/win situation for the players, organization, and fans.
The players, coaches, and staff will be improved because they will spend less time traveling and more time on the field or training or working on improving their skills. Remember Kent got injured last year in ST and it worsened during a bus ride to an away game. This should also benefit us fans because hopefully the team will be better rested when the season starts and play better during the year.
I went to Vero last year and loved it. It was the only time I've gone and did it last year because there would never be another chance to.
But I've been to ST in Arizona about 5-6 times in the past and it is awesome. There are many teams in the area & the drives are short to away teams so you can go to games every day. Now I stayed in Scottsdale because the friends I went with were Giants fans and a friend of ours works in their front office. So we played in Scottsdale for most of the time. But we would go out and see many players, coaches, staff, and whatnot at dinner, shopping, dessert, all over. Not just Giants but from all the teams in the area. It was fun. Most everyone that is down there is there for ST & it made it an extremely fun & relaxing atmosphere.
I think in time McCourt Ranch will become a tradition & our kids will look back on the place the way many of us look back at Vero.
Now I also look at the McCourts and feel that yes they do like the limelight for their good deeds, but as I looked at the photos on the website it is nice to see them making a difference in the community with their ownership. I can take them posing for photos as long as they are making a difference in people's lives. I also feel that it is somewhat genuine.
I don't think all rich owners do that. While Mark Cuban & the Maloof's are given praise for what they do with their teams, I don't see them doing much charity work. I could be mistaken but I see them doing tons of playing as well.
Once again I went a little long but…
I'm pumped as one of the Ethieraholics to have Dre officially in the fold. I do wish they could of done it sooner and for a longer term deal. But I'm glad they got it done and can focus on playing ball!
Go Blue!!!
Bring the Ring in 2009!!!
dcollins ~ new thread!


text:
I have finally learned a critical lesson about vacation — if you are lucky enough to have one, you should actually try to enjoy it.
If I am completely honest, I must admit that for the past five years, I have not allowed myself to enjoy time off. The newspaper business has been struggling, and that's putting it mildly. So, it is far more difficult to completely unplug from the office, especially when my Smartphone has the office email flowing in.
Adding to an already heavy load, about five and half years ago my husband, Dan, and I embarked on an arduous journey when we adopted five children. We love them all dearly, but it makes vacationing at home nearly impossible. Staying home is necessary for financial reasons, but if, like me, you are afflicted with the need for some small degree of cleanliness and order, staying home on vacation isn't doable. While I am at work, I don't see all the dirt and disorder that naturally piles up with so many kids and all of their friends running through the house. I don't try to fix it, because I know I can't.
But, when I'm on "vacation" (and I use the quote marks deliberately), I see a block of time that I can spend trying to right all the wrongs, banish the filth and restore order to our little house. And that means ripping apart closets, scouring floors, going through the kids' closets to get rid of worn-out clothes and sanitizing the kitchen.
Add back-to-school shopping to the to-do list and suddenly, an entire two-week vacation has drifted away with very little actual vacationing.
It looked like I was headed for the non-vacation again this year when my time off started badly on Aug. 4. I woke up on the first day of vacation with a flu of some sort — a terrible head cold and stomachache. So I was stuck on the couch in my dirty house for several days of recovery watching the Olympics. Surprisingly, despite the disorder and lack of overall cleanliness, it wasn't half bad to loll around drinking fruit juice and tea. I kind of liked it.
When I was feeling better, I began puttering around the house exploring the closets I would rip apart and inspecting the dust bunnies I would most certainly attack.
But the kids talked me into going for a late afternoon swim in Milton instead. We dove into the water from a bridge that was about 15 feet high. I'm sure it was against the law, but it felt so good — scary and thrilling at the same time. We did it over and over until we were hungry. Then we ordered pizzas at a little place downtown and ate hot, cheesy slices on a picnic table by the dam.
I was so exhilarated after the Milton trip, I needed little convincing when Dan suggested we go to York Beach the next day. Dan and I bought fluorescent orange beach chairs at Wal-Mart for $15 — half price! The water was so warm, you could walk right in without flinching.
Our two youngest boys, Jeff, 13, and Jarid, 11, each invited a friend, so there were no fights and no cries of "I'm bored!" to interrupt my busy agenda which included drinking several diet Cokes, eating a delicious Italian sandwich and occasionally drooling a little as I nodded off in my new neon orange beach chair. I did not give the closets or the dust bunnies even a passing thought.
We went to the beach two more times during our "vacation" with each visit producing the same magical effect — relaxation. The kids did nothing special. They rode boogie boards and buried each other in the sand.
We also took Jarid miniature golfing and I even managed to work in some back-to-school shopping as a family outing of sorts, taking Jeff and Jake, 17, to the Nike outlet store in Tilton. Instead of dragging myself up there alone, it was fun.
The last day of vacation, we went to York Beach again and even Jake came along. I took pictures of the kids riding the waves. Jarid and I went searching for crabs and shells and he was thrilled to find a tiny sea urchin. We must have walked 4 or 5 miles up and down the beach just looking for treasures.
By the end of that last day, I looked like a refugee from Cuba who had been adrift in an inflatable raft for weeks. My hair was bleached out and my skin was brown and weathered. Dan and I compared old age spots on our hands, which he laughingly dubbed "rot dots."
And when we got home that night, the house was still standing — dust bunnies and disorderly closets virtually undisturbed.
After five years, I was finally on vacation (no quote marks needed).
Mary Pat Rowland is the managing editor of Foster's and can be reached at email@example.com.
Vacation really was 'day at the the beach'
I have finally learned a critical lesson about vacation — if you are lucky enough to have one, you should actually try to enjoy it.