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I love Disney World, but there are a few things even *I* won't do there. Like any of the roller coasters. Any of them. Can't do it. Severe motion sickness (I allow SoldierMan one turn on the teacups, and they always – ALWAYS – stop just 2 seconds shy of me hurling right there in the middle of the tent) and an intense fear of falling.
The other one is Splash Mountain. I did it once, on our honeymoon, for SoldierMan, and it was traumatic. Like seriously nightmare-inducing for me. Pretty sure I cried.
We went to Disney World on our pre-deployment leave. And he really, really wanted to do Splash Mountain, with me.
And because we were facing a deployment and I'm a dramatic worst-case fantasizer, I thought, "If he never comes back, I don't want my one regret to be that I wouldn't even go on Splash Mountain with him before he deployed."
So I did. Pretty sure I cried a little that time, too.
I told him, he gets once every five years. That's the best I can offer.
In other news, my GoPicnic! Giveaway has ended! Thanks to everyone who participated! And the winner is…
Yay Megan! I'll be contacting you soon to get you connected to GoPicnic!
Hope everyone has a fabulous Thursday!


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Free Ableton EUB Simpler
This is a Free Simpler using Ableton Live 9.5 new slice mode in Ableton Simpler. The sample is Chromatic C to C of an NS Design Electric Upright Bass tuned in 5ths. So basically a Low C.
This Free Ableton Simpler download works in Live 9.5 or newer, but feel free to extract the wav file and use in anything.
AAT Team
Click here For information
about private lessons, webinars, and classes on Ableton Live and more

subset: commoncrawl


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The software
The 2011 and 2012 Kindle Fires are hard to tell apart—at least until you turn on the screen.
Where the original Fire used a few striking preloaded images as its lock screen background, the new ad-supported Fire shows you slightly less classy images which try to sell you Discover cards and Bradley Cooper movies. These ads are part of the reason why the new Fire is cheaper than the old model. They can be disabled completely for an extra $15, but it's too bad to see this previously subtle feature subverted into a gaudy billboard for reality TV shows.
Unlock the device, and what you get is the same redesign of the Kindle software found in the Kindle Fire HD. The broad strokes from the original Fire are still here: its home screen is taken up primarily by a carousel-esque list of your most recently viewed apps, webpages, and media files, and while the original Kindle Fire fit more items on its screen at once (four or five in portrait and seven in landscape, compared to the new Kindle Fire's three and five), the carousel is more flexible in the new OS version. For example, the new Kindle allows you to remove items from the carousel easily by holding your finger down and them selecting "remove from channel." Also, on the new Kindles, tapping one of the out-of-focus items will actually launch that item, while tapping it on the older Fire would merely bring it to the front of the stack and then require another tap to launch.
A new Favorites menu, invoked by tapping a star in the lower-right corner of the screen, also replaces the old Fire's persistent row of icons underneath the carousel. On the new Fire, that space is taken up by "suggested" content—having an app at the front of the carousel will show apps purchased by other users of the foreground app, and having a webpage at the front will show you trending webpages. It's nice that the Favorites button is persistent and easy to access, but it's hard not to object to the presence of ads encroaching on the stuff you actually want on your tablet.
I won't detail every software enhancement made to the $159 Kindle Fire, because all of the features we already went over in our Kindle Fire HD review are here. Things don't look exactly the same because of the differing pixel density and aspect ratio of the low-end Fire's screen, but the real differences between the Kindle Fire and the Kindle Fire HD are entirely hardware-related—the software features are the same across both devices.
This means you get many improvements over the original Kindle Fire—the keyboard is better, the e-mail and calendaring capabilities are better (if not perfect), the Silk browser has improved, and while the new OS can generally fit fewer apps and books on the screen at once than the old OS, I find the new one easier to navigate—it's convenient to have separate, broken-out sections for games and audiobooks. It's also more visually refined, and does away with the overly skeuomorphic shelves of last year's model in favor of something more understated.
That said, the bad stuff is all here, too. Amazon's app store is still a shadow of Google Play. Scrolling through the carousel on the home screen is mostly smooth, but scrolling in Amazon's stores and within apps is still jerky and imprecise—trying to pick a particular episode of 30 Rock from a scrolling list in the Netflix app was an exercise in frustration. The new software keyboard is an improvement in accuracy and responsiveness over last year's, but it still sometimes ignores keystrokes or interprets them incorrectly. And, perhaps most damning for a tablet geared primarily toward content consumption, the Silk Web browser's performance leaves much to be desired.
Silk browser performance
We've already mentioned the way the Silk browser looks on the $159 Kindle Fire—small text is less legible on the lower-resolution screen—but how is the performance of the cheaper tablet compared to the Kindle Fire HD and the Nexus 7?
Even though the Silk browser's Sunspider scores are very close to the Nexus 7's, in practice the browser still takes considerably longer to load pages than Chrome on the Nexus 7. For example, the Nexus 7 took about 2.7 seconds to fully load the New York Times homepage, while the Kindle Fire took a poky 7.2 seconds. Even the way the pages are loaded makes the Fire seem slower—Chrome will typically load content in chunks, so even if the page hasn't finished loading entirely, you're still looking at the portions of the page that have loaded. Silk takes an everything-at-once approach, displaying a blank white page until most of the site has loaded and then throwing it all up on the screen. The Silk browser isn't intolerably slow, but it is much slower than the competition.
As with last year's Kindle Fire, the first thing you have to consider with this year's model is the price. You've got to decide whether the $40 you save over the thinner, lighter, higher-resolution, more-capable Nexus 7 (or Kindle Fire HD, if you're a big Amazon user) is worth it. Certainly, if you're very invested in the Amazon ecosystem, then even the non-HD Kindle Fire has some benefits over general-use Android tablets: the Kindle reading app is better, Amazon Prime subscribers can easily stream content from the Instant Video library, and music and other data stored in your Amazon Cloud Storage are close at hand without having to download and configure separate apps.
I would be remiss not to re-emphasize the raw deal that Amazon's early adopters are getting here: first-gen Kindle Fire owners will not be receiving any of these software enhancements, despite having hardware that should be capable of running it. This doesn't exactly make it unique in the Android ecosystem, which is notoriously slow to move to newer versions of the OS, but Amazon is a large operation with a small product line, and since most of its products are Wi-Fi only, it rarely has to deal with the sort of the carrier-induced silliness which so delays Android updates for many handsets. We don't know how future generations of Kindle Fires will be handled, but this is a poor precedent to set for people planning to drop $500 on the 8.9" 4G model when it becomes available.
If you're just looking for a tablet and you don't much care about tight Amazon integration, even the Kindle Fire's price can't quite redeem it. It's still tied to Amazon's app store, which has a decent complement of popular Android games but is much smaller than the official Google Play store. Its Web browser is still slow compared to Chrome on the Nexus 7 despite their comparable Sunspider scores. Scrolling and loading apps is still too slow and jerky. We said that last year's Kindle Fire was best thought of as an e-reader that can do some extra stuff; a slight bump in specifications and a fresh coat of paint haven't done much to change that impression.
The good
- New $159 price undercuts $199 tablets like the Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7
- No artificial software limitations relative to the Kindle Fire HD
- Small hardware upgrades over last year's model
- Cases and accessories made for the 2011 Kindle Fire will all be compatible
- Still fundamentally a decent low-cost tablet
The bad
- The Kindle Fire's design is looking and feeling ever-more chunky next to the Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7
- Amazon's Android skin is still a bit jerky and slow, and the Silk browser is still faster in Amazon's advertising than it is in real life
- More and more advertisements are encroaching on the stuff you actually want on your tablet
The ugly
- The software improvements on display here would be a whole lot more impressive if they had been backported to last year's model, rather than being made available only to new buyers
Listing image by Andrew Cunningham


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If you are going to be producing queens with any regularity then having some queen marking tools and cages is a must. Marked queens are in demand for novice beekeepers as it makes the queen stand out more and she's easier to identify. While you can purchase whatever color you wish, beekeepers use the following colors to track the age of their queens:
Besides marking tools, we also carry a wide array of queen catching tools and cages. Here at Betterbee, we use the California Mini Cage when prepping our queens for sale.


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On January 2, 2013, the Secretary of Homeland Security announced a new provisional waiver process in consular processing immigration cases. The goal of this procedural change will be to minimize the amount of time families are separated during the application process.
This will apply to immediate relatives of US Citizens and Residents who are in the process of obtaining their residency or wish to begin the consular process. This only pertains to undocumented individuals who have accrued a period of unlawful presence in the USA and will receive a Bar to Admissibility because of it. If you are a US Citizen or Resident and have a spouse, parent or child who is without status, this may apply to your family.
Previously, when an undocumented individual was going through the visa and residency application process, he/she would need to return to his/her home country for an interview. Once the interview was over, their hardship waiver application would be filed and the individual would need to wait in their home country for a decision and visa. Sometimes this could take up to a year or more. The new provisional waiver system will allow the undocumented individual to apply for the hardship waiver before leaving the USA for their home country. The individual will still need to attend their visa interview in their home country; however, the visit will only be to attend their interview and will be for a much shorter period of time (i.e. a matter of weeks).
It is very important that you speak to an experienced immigration attorney. If you have a criminal record that rises to the level of giving you a bar to admissibility, then this provisional waiver program will not apply to you.
Hardship Waivers can be very difficult to obtain. There is a substantial amount of information that must be given to the government in support of the Waiver. It is highly recommended that you retain legal counsel to assist you with this process. An experienced attorney will be able to complete your applications, gather supporting documentation, insure that all information being submitted to the government is correct and answer any questions that may come up along the way. Please contact Kaehne, Cottle, Pasquale & Associates, S.C. to schedule your no-cost consultation and evaluation of your case. Our attorneys have practiced extensively in the area of consular processing and hardship waivers over the years and are well versed in the new legal directives.


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In this post: If you're not so into ordinary builder's grade rooms, here are 12 tips for transforming a bland powder room into a lovely French bathroom.
How often have you seen those powder rooms typical in new development homes? You know the kind ~ new but characterless fixtures, builder's grade faucets, bland floor tile, common sconce and mirror and little else. Often they throw a rich paint color on the wall, hoping it will mask the ho-hum feeling of the room. Such was the state of our powder room when we moved in 6 weeks ago. Here's the before pic below.
With an entire house to make feel like home, we weren't prepared to do major renovations in this space. The goal was to transform the room without spending much. The sink and commode were innocuous enough, although this particular pedestal sink provided nowhere to put soap, while the extra tall height left no space for a shelf. I'm not a huge fan of the ceramic floor, but ripping it out will have to wait for another time. So instead I addressed the key things that would make the biggest statement and go the longest way towards expressing my style.
Here are my 12 tips for transforming a bland powder room into a lovely French bathroom:
1. Wallpaper
The single biggest transformation toward a French bathroom was achieved by getting rid of the nearly-black painted walls and covering them with a lovely toile. Wallpaper is not for everyone and if floral isn't your thing, you'd want to pick something else, but in a room this size without windows, rug or seating, the use of wallpaper affords the opportunity to bring in pattern and personality to define your look. In a tiny room, the expense of the paper is balanced by how little you need.
2. A Gilded Mirror
A beautiful antique French mirror is just the thing to make any room special. But in a pinch, a lightweight resin reproduction will get the same point across.
3. A Tiny Wood Chest
If you're lucky enough to have the space for it, a tiny piece of furniture adds both character and a place to store hand towels, aspirin and other guest necessities. Mine hold bandaids and lip balm, and the wicker basket beneath is a discreet holder for spare toilet tissue.
4. Silver Vanity Accessories
The place to really have fun showing your personality is with the pieces you choose to display on the limited surfaces you have to work with. These are part of my collection purchased mostly in England and add a fun touch of glimmer and refined appeal.
5. Special Towels
The hand towels are another spot where you can add a bit of flavor without breaking the bank. I enjoy a mix of patterns so I went for the cheetah print, and this is where we took the opportunity to address the lack of a shelf, adding towel bar and shelf, all in one piece. I'd prefer it to be closer to the sink, but for now this will do.
6. Unique Overhead Lighting
Many of these bathrooms come with cheap dome lighting, but ours had NO overhead lighting. Either way, bringing in an antique piece or one with special character is a great way to make your room one-of-a-kind. This lantern was in the entry hall in our old home and easily transitioned to its new role.
7. Artwork That Expresses a Passion
One of my first collections began with many assorted teacups, but as the collection grew faster than the furniture I could display it on, I began to branch out into paintings of the china. The colors here are a perfect blend with the paper.
8. Pretty Sconce
While we don't really need two light sources in this room, we did need to deal with the existing wiring above the mirror. An inexpensive sconce was added to the mix and the change from the original is like night and day.
9. Planter as Waste Basket
Finding new uses for older things is a great practice. Here I used a pretty planter to serve as garbage can. It fuses seamlessly with everything else in the room.
10. Candle Holder
The gorgeous square votive holder adds a punch of color, as well as a taste of luxury to offer your guests. I always light it when entertaining at home.
11. Fringe Tassel
Hardly the most essential thing in the room, but a lovely addition to my French bathroom nonetheless, this sweet little tassel proves it's all in the details.
12. Hand Creams
A final bit of pampering can be enjoyed via the hand soap dispensed in a French apothecary jar and a pretty aromatic hand cream, served up on the shelf.
A pretty big transformation, without ripping anything out, left us satisfied for now… until the next project.
French Bathroom Source List – Click on the items below for direct links to the products. Where actual items were no longer available, I've provided similar options. (This post contains some affiliate links for your convenience. Click here to read my full disclosure policy.)
- Wallpaper
- Sink
- Gilded mirror
- Crystal Curtain Light
- Lantern Light Fixture
- Towel bar
- Shelf bar
- Monogram towels
- Petite side table
- Dressing Table Accessories
- Teacup art and Teacup art
- Glass brick votive
If you enjoyed this post, you might also like these bathroom renovations:
Master Bath Add On | Money Saving Family Bath Renovation
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But just like it was in 1995 or so when the World Wide Web first burst upon the scene, separating the good stuff from the useless drivel is a big chore. No one has yet counted how many of these personal diaries of deep or not-so-deep thoughts there are, but there are thousands, and navigating the blogosphere is a daunting task for the uninitiated. We've sampled much of what's out there on the subjects of technology, media and the economy and over the next week will be sharing our picks for the Web's best blogs.
More From Forbes
Best Media Blogs 03.17.03


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A consultative committee has been set up to look at mechanisms for distributing the benefits of the irrigators' share of water recovered through Stage 1 of the GMW Connections Project. The Connections Project is a massive upgrade of irrigation infrastructure in the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District (GMID).
Making sure irrigators get their share
The irrigators' share is one-third of the confirmed volume of water recovered through the first stage of the Connections Project.
The volume of the irrigators' share will be up to 75 GL, based on calculations of Long-Term Annual Average Yield.
Independent audits are completed each year to confirm how much water has been recovered.
What the Committee will do
The committee is responsible for advising on a preferred mechanism to distribute the benefits of the irrigators' share.
The committee was convened in July 2019 and will make a recommendation to the Minister for Water by mid-2020.
The work the committee will do, and the principles that will inform its decisions, are detailed in the committee's Terms of Reference and Principles.
- Irrigators' Share Consultative Committee terms of reference
- Irrigators' Share Consultative Committee Principles
Who is on the committee
Independent chair
Responsible for facilitating the meetings in line with the committee's terms of reference
Independent expert
Responsible for providing unbiased information, analysis and advice relating to the matters discussed in the committee
Water Services Committee representatives
Responsible for representing the views and interests of irrigators from each of the six GMID gravity irrigation areas
Victorian Farmers' Federation
Responsible for representing the views of its membership within the irrigation sector
Contributes subject-matter expertise and strategic oversight
Goulburn-Murray Water
Contributes critical knowledge of GMW's operations
Goulburn-Murray Water
Contributes expertise on the Connections Project water recovery
Contact us
If you have any questions or would like further information, you can contact the project team:
Contact Name: Delivery Share Review team
Phone: 136186
Email: email@example.com
GMID irrigators are encouraged to get in touch with their local Water Services Committee.
Page last updated: 19/12/19


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Portable Corel AfterShot Standard 184.108.40.2065 (x64)
Turn your passion for photography into unforgettable photos—without spending hours at the computer. Corel® AfterShot™ 3 is the simple, affordable way to quickly learn professional-grade photo editing. Make easy corrections and enhancements, and apply adjustments to one or thousands of photos at once with batch processing tools.
Photo editing software
• Enhanced Highlight Recovery
• New Blemish Remover tools
• New Image Preset Library
Simple photo management
Sort, organize and view all your photos in one place, quickly and easily with flexible file management options–no importing required.
Time-saving workflow
Speed through loading, selecting, editing and output with an easy-to-use workflow perfect for students and aspiring photographers.
Powerful batch processing
Edit and perfect one or thousands of photos with powerful batch processing controls and presets that let you quickly bring out the best in every image.
Highlight Recovery
Regain more of the detail and tone from your overexposed photos with enhanced Highlight Recovery. Powered by a new algorithm, this feature lets you access more of the data in your RAW files for superior image quality.
Blemish Remover (NEW!)
Save time and edit faster by doing more touchups and photo corrections in AfterShot 3, rather than jumping to PaintShop Pro or Adobe® Photoshop®. The new Blemish Remover offers circle, brush, polygon and freehand tools for detailed editing, making portrait editing faster and easier. Remove dust, spots, smudges and a variety of imperfections on any photo.
Image Preset Library (NEW!)
Now it's easier to tap into the power of presets to automate more of your repetitive processing jobs or quickly reproduce a look that would otherwise be tedious to replicate. The new Image Preset Library^ lets you browse, preview and download free and for-purchase presets.
Lens Corrections (NEW!)
Update to AfterShot 3 for new, sought-after lens corrections that build on the hundreds of lenses already supported by AfterShot to quickly correct the different types of distortion introduced by various lenses. Join the AfterShot Pro community on Facebook to discover when new lens corrections are posted or to share your own.
See what's new with plugins (ENHANCED!)
Find and install free and for-purchase plugins, and get updates in a flash with AfterShot 3's new Plugin Manager^. Or make your own with our unique plugin API—a love of photography, a knowledge of C++ and the updated Plugin SDK are all you need. Share your plugins freely with the AfterShot community, or work with Corel to sell them.
Updated RAW camera profiles (NEW!)
We're committed to constantly delivering support for today's most popular, powerful and creative cameras, including professional DSLRs, flexible and high-quality mirrorless cameras, and many more. A new dynamic camera profile updater^ notifies you when new cameras are added a new feedback mechanism captures and prioritizes your requests with Corel.
Modular Camera Profiles (NEW!)
Get the latest camera profiles sooner—and without patching your software—with dynamic camera updates^. Simply browse and download directly from AfterShot 3. Don't see a camera you want? Hit the 'feedback' button and log your request directly to the AfterShot Pro development team.
Lens Correction Development Kit (NEW!)
Make and share your own lens corrections—ideal for photographers working with rare, unique or spanking new glass. Simply follow the instructions, save your correction, then load it into AfterShot 3—or share online.
New camera support:
Note: Camera profiles are available from the Get More tab in the Tools panel (Windows and macOS) or from the Get More menu item (Linux).
• Canon 77D / EOS 9000D
• Canon EOS 200D / Rebel SL2
• Canon EOS 4000D
• Canon EOS M100
• Nikon D850
• Olympus EM10 Mark III
• Panasonic Lumix TZ200
• Panasonic Lumix GX9
• Pentax KP
• Leica C-Lux
Issues addressed:
• Importing: Fixed stability issue that occurred when importing photos from some Sony and Canon cameras
• Camera module and plugin installation issue resolved
• Launch issues associated with OpenCL fixed
• Nikon D850: Image dimension issue resolved
• Canon EOS 200D: TIFF files now detected
• Lens Correction: Fixed a number of issues that affected lens metadata display and correction results
• [Pro] Linux Ubuntu 18.4 installation issue resolved


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By the time the Eagles released "Tequila Sunrise," the first single from their second album Desperado in 1973, tequila -- the distillate made from blue agave cultivated in Jalisco, Mexico -- had already entered into the American cocktail vernacular.
The recipe for the tequila sunrise is believed to have been developed at the swank Biltmore hotel in Phoenix, Arizona at the height of the first American cocktail craze in the 1930s and '40s, the same time that the now ubiquitous margarita first probably appeared in cantinas of the upper reaches of the Baja California Peninsula, just across the border from San Diego (where I grew up in '70s).
"When we drink tequila in Mexico, it is still served in the same way as when I was a young man," said master distiller Francisco Alcaraz, when I reached by phone the other day at his office in Jalisco.
"We serve it straight, with lime and salt, or with sangrita [a chaser often made with fruit juice -- orange or tomato -- and grenadine, spiked with chiles or hot sauce]. And it is always served with some kind of snack. It's something that you drink with friends while you're watching a soccer game, paired with nuts, [sliced] cucumber or cheese, or jicama."
Francisco has seen the tequila industry change radically since he was first approached in the late 1980s by U.S.-based investors who asked him to create what many now consider the benchmark for premium tequila, Patrón (whose corporate offices are based in Las Vegas).
By the late 1990s, remembered Francisco, "mixologists [in the U.S.] had started mixing tequila with nearly everything, even watermelon," he said with a gently sardonic chuckle.
And while North American cocktail culture continues to push the envelope of how tequila can be "applied" in mixology today, its use in long and short drinks tends to blur the focus of tequila's essence -- a "terraceous" or earthy quality, as Francisco likes to call it.
"Everything starts with 'silver,'" Francisco told me, the second distillation of the blue agave. While silver can be destined for oak aging (to be labeled as reposado or añejo, depending on the aging regimen), silver is tequila in its purest form and it's where "the herbaceous and citrus" and even "mushroom" (umami, savory) notes of tequila can emerge.
Francisco's certainly not complaining about the current tequila craze on this side of the border: From his early days as a government tequila inspector in the late 1960s to his current reign as master distiller, he has seen tequila evolve in a way no one could have imagined in the pre-mixology world. Today, he travels across North America leading seminars and tastings for consumers, media, and trade.
But it's when he talks about the nuance tequila's unique terroir -- its volcanic subsoils and its varied macroclimates -- that he really seems to get excited.
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"The sugar content in the lowlands tends to be lower," he told me, "and so you'll find more earthy notes in tequilas produced from fruit grown there. The highlands produces agave with more sugar content and so you get more fruity notes."
As much as I love a great margarita (or even a hair-of-the-dog tequila sunrise), I'll think twice before I blend his tequila into a long drink.
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Dark grey fabric complimented by a stylised arrow screen-print in light grey. The arrow design is contained in an understated wedge-shape and the hat is finished with masculine embellishments including a metal badge and subtle dark red contrast stitching.
Copyright © 2012 Jestomic Shop


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The relaunched British Airways On Business scheme is live – with FEWER redemption seats
Links on Head for Points may pay us an affiliate commission. A list of partners is here.
The changes / devaluation of On Business (the British Airways loyalty programme for small businesses) came into effect last week. The new home page is here.
If you are an existing member, you will have been emailed your new membership number along with a request to reset your password. Old membership numbers will continue to work until the end of 2015.
In some ways the changes are very similar to what happened to the Avios programme:
Redemptions in Eurotraveller / World Traveller have become proportionately cheaper
Redemptions in premium cabins have become proportionately more expensive
The main twist is:
The programme has gone 100% revenue based. The points you earn are now based ENTIRELY on the amount you spend. For the purchaser of cheap economy flights, every redemption will be harder to earn in the future.
There is also another unwelcome twist:
Redemption availability, for economy and World Traveller Plus tickets, has been reduced sharply. In some cases it is worse than Avios availability.
This is how the scheme now works:
Three membership tiers have been introduced, based on £ spend. A base level member earns 1 point per £1. Spend over £30,000 and you move to tier 2, earning 1.25 points per £1. Spend over £300,000 and you move to tier 3, earning 1.5 points per £1.
'Hand baggage only' flights do NOT earn points.
Taxes, fees and surcharges other than fuel surcharges do NOT earn points. You will therefore earn fewer points than the headline price of your ticket suggests.
Your spend to date has been backdated to the start of 2015. This is meant to include spending with American Airlines and Iberia – it is not clear how successful BA has been in picking this up for flights earlier in the year.
You can also continue to earn extra On Business points by using the British Airways American Express Corporate Card or Corporate Plus Card to book flights.
Points now expire after two full calendar years. This is poorer than the old scheme where points only expired after three full calendar years.
There is some good news which will benefit every member:
Points can be earned and redeemed on Iberia and American Airlines flights. This is a change from the previous position.
You can agree to waive your right to earn points fin return for a cash discount. A saving of '5% or more' on the ticket price will be available on 'selected flights' if you choose not to earn points on your booking. This may be a better deal for most people.
However, note that if only one flight in your itinerary is discounted, you will not earn On Business points for ANY part of it.
Almost all tickets can now be upgraded with points. Far more classes of economy tickets are now eligible for upgrading. The cheapest Club World seats will also be upgradeable.
Upgrades look like good value at first glance. They start at 5,000 points long-haul for World Traveller to World Traveller Plus, from 10,500 for World Traveller Plus to Club World and from 7,000 points for Club World to First. These are one-way prices.
These prices are so generous that someone who travels on fully flexible Club World tickets for a Tier 3 company will earn almost enough for a one-way upgrade to First for every return trip they take. I'm not sure this is sustainable.
Upgrades can ONLY be processed at the time of booking. You cannot upgrade an existing booking.
How has the 'earn to burn' ratio changed?
BA decided to double the existing points balance of every member. My first response when a programme does something like this is that it is trying to hide the extent of a devaluation. If it is difficult to compare the 'before' and 'after' position you had, you might not realise what exactly happened.
Previously, a Club World return flight required roughly 300% of the On Business points required for a World Traveller flight. That has changed to roughly six times.
Effectively, most small companies can now forget about redeeming for long-haul premium classes. You would need to spend roughly £40,000 to earn one Club World return to the Middle East.
The unexpected change is the additional tightening of the seats available for redemption. Two years ago, On Business was hugely generous. You could pretty much get a seat on any flight, even at short notice. About a year ago this was tightened up a little, but availability was still substantially better than you found for Avios redemptions. I always held onto my OB points for occasions when I absolutely had to travel on a certain date but there were no Avios seats on offer.
Evidence over the last week is that availability has tightened even further.
Economy redemptions now book into V booking class and not B as previously. World Traveller Plus redemptions now book into T instead of E. This will make it very difficult to get availability at short notice. There are examples at Flyertalk of availability now being worse than Avios availability for short notice bookings – which, of course, are the sort that small businesses tend to book.
There is no change to Club World and First availability.
What impact will this have?
It is difficult to know what impact the changes to On Business will have. As with the April changes to main Avios scheme, they seem poorly thought through.
The small business, spending only a limited amount on European flights throughout the year, is being told that it is not wanted. Coupled with the cut to Avios earning, owner-managers are more likely to seek out easyJet and other options. They may want to take a look at PartnerPlusBenefit, the Star Alliance small business programme.
Larger companies are flying British Airways anyway. This is unlikely to change their behaviour and most big companies wouldn't care if British Airways scrapped the scheme entirely. It was only ever smaller companies who got any real value from it by being able to take the odd free flight or upgrade, and they have effectively been disenfranchised.
To learn more, log in to the On Business section on ba.com. You can also sign up via that page. Whilst the scheme is now heavily diluted, you have nothing to lose by signing up if your own your own business even if you do nothing more than take the 5% flight discount available.
(Want to earn more Avios? Click here to see our latest articles on earning and spending your points and click here to see our list of current Avios promotions.)


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plus de 170 projets labellisés
Pour un observatoire des dispositifs numériques de médiation du spectacle vivant
The MedNum project focuses on the digital devices and the theoritical issues that cross the cultural mediation field of the performing arts in the digital age. There are two operational objectives : on one hand, it is necessary to observe, analyze and assess mediation devices developed by cultural organizations, and on the other hand, to consider the setting of an observatory of the devices specific to the performing arts. Therefore, the project rests on a close partnership between cultural institutions and mediation professionnals. Through seminars, workshops and summer schools, MedNum seeks to question the discourses and the representations that inform the cultural mediation field when it comes to think of the role of the digital technologies in its practices. As a consequence, we need to (re)question the tensions specific to the cultural mediation field (for example, between vertical or descending logics and horizontal logics, between democratization and democracy, between mediation and participation, between quantitative and qualitative objectives, between mediation and communication, etc.) in the light not only of the society digitalization, but also through the emergence of new paradigms that affect the public cultural policies, such as taking into account the cultural rights or reconsideration of the cultural state involvement for the benefit of the privatization of the cultural consumption.


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What Now?
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Barron's 2008 Roundtable – Part 1 – January 14
Barron's 2008 Roundtable – Part II – January 21
YES, OUR ROUNDTABLE MEMBERS EXPECTED the stock market to struggle in this year's first half. But nearly collapse in its first month? That wasn't in anyone's playbook when we gathered on Jan. 7 for our annual gabfest about all things investment-related. And yet, the Dow industrials have plummeted 8% since the start of 2008, the Nasdaq Composite, 12%. Fearing a recession, the Federal Reserve has lopped a fat three-fourths of a percentage point off its short-term interest-rate target, while Washington has cooked up a "stimulus" package to put cash in consumers' pockets. And overseas marts, from Brazil to Germany to India, have tanked by double digits. So much for the hope that the rest of the globe had "decoupled" from America's problems -- a notion, you might recall, that our experts scoffed at in these pages two weeks ago.
Given last week's carnage, we thought it wise to check in again with the five investment pros whose picks and pans for the new year are featured in this final Roundtable installment. What, we wondered, do Felix Zulauf, Abby Joseph Cohen, Marc Faber, Archie MacAllaster and Scott Black make of the mighty downdraft in shares, and what might it portend?
Felix, who founded and runs Zulauf Asset Management, in Switzerland, says people are asking the wrong question when they fret about a recession. The right questions? How will the global banking system clean up its mess, and how will the consumer repair his balance sheet? And, how long will it take?
Tellingly, Felix didn't recommend a single stock at this year's Roundtable. Instead, he's long a trio of commodities, short some currencies and consumer plays, and extremely fond of gold. "It's a bear market," he says, "and it could be long and drawn out. There will be some good rallies, but they will fade."
Even though she expected rough sledding in early '08, Abby, chief U.S. investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, admits to surprise at the magnitude of recent declines. But the fact that analysts' 2008 consensus profit forecasts also are falling sharply creates the "preconditions" for stronger stock prices down the road. Too, stocks look "very inexpensive" relative to interest rates -- not that investors should assume bond yields stay at these rock-bottom levels. Abby doesn't analyze stocks; she studies Goldman's Buy list for shares that fit her macro themes. This year she's playing it safe, with busted tech and defensive issues.
Marc, man of the world and proprietor of Marc Faber Ltd. in Hong Kong, says all asset markets are oversold "in the very short term" and due to rebound strongly, although he doubts they'll go to new highs. Equity investors, he grouses, still are focused on buying the dips, not selling the bounces, and sentiment is negative not because they have liquidated their shares, but because they're sitting on large losses. Emerging markets, he adds, have "considerable downside risk," but recoveries of 10% to 15% are common in bear markets. Marc's picks this year are mostly pans -- of several currencies and emerging-market shares.
Through bull and bear markets both, Archie, head of New York's MacAllaster, Pitfield, MacKay, has been an optimist, and proud of it, we might add. He's holding lots of cash and is in no hurry to invest it, although he allowed, when we rang him up last week, that "I sort of like the market better than I did." What he really likes are the six financial-services stocks and one energy company whose prospects he highlights in this week's issue.
Scott, the oracle at Boston's Delphi Management, is a value investor in the Graham & Dodd mode. He expects the U.S. stock market to bounce off this bottom and rally 5% to 10% for the year. In the meantime, he's scooping up "some really outstanding technology stocks" -- including Xilinx [ticker: XLNX], ASML Holding [ASML], KLA-Tencor [KLAC] and Texas Instruments [TXN] -- that finally have fallen into his buying range.
Scott's Roundtable picks span the gamut from energy companies to retailers to tech and zinc. What most of them share are prices below the companies' "knock-down" value, for businesses with uncommon potential.
Our Roundtable pros took the opportunity, where necessary, to update their recommendations to reflect developments that occurred after Jan. 7. You'll find their comments in editors' notes in the text. Please read on.
Barron's: What looks good to you this year, Felix?
Zulauf: In general, capital preservation will be key this year. Last year, I recommended the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX. I'm not recommending it formally this year, but it still is a good idea. The VIX is trading in the low 20s. Sometime this year, probably in the first half, people who own it will be able to sell it in the mid-30s [The VIX topped 35 midweek, and closed at 29]. The markets are going to be influenced by dual, opposing forces: the deflating consumer economy and the reflationary efforts of the central banks. That will make for a lot of volatility, with a downward trend in the first half.
The problem is the consumer. I recommend shorting the Consumer Discretionary SPDR, or XLY, an ETF [exchange-traded fund] reflective of consumer-discretionary goods and services. It trades for 31. The consumer is tapped out on home equity, which was a great force behind the spending boom of recent years. He is getting squeezed by higher energy and food costs, which will hurt his ability to spend on discretionary items. This ETF hit a high of 40 in July, up from a low of 20 in 2001 and '03, when we didn't have a recession. It will revisit those lows again.
The consumer is weakening in many countries. There is also a problem in Europe, particularly where the housing boom has reversed. Shorting European automobile stocks is a good way to play this. The stocks have already declined, but consensus expectations for 23% earnings growth after 24% growth in 2007 and 7% in '06 are way too high. Consumers will cut back on car buying, and the companies will get squeezed.
The stronger euro is a problem for these companies, too.
Zulauf: The European auto makers are at a competitive disadvantage due to the euro. Their products are fantastic, but they'll have a hard time competing on price. If they don't bring prices down in markets like the U.S., they'll lose market share. Margins will get squeezed. This is not an expensive sector but a cyclical one. You can short the iShares DJ Stoxx 600 Auto & Parts ETF, which trades in Germany.
Next, I have a currency trade. There has been a lot of talk about how the housing problems in the U.S. are affecting the consumer. The U.K. housing boom has been much more extreme. Key factors like home-price-to-income have risen to much higher levels than in the U.S. Consumer debt in the U.K. as a percentage of disposable personal income has risen from 100% 10 years ago to 166% today. In the U.S., it's 133%, up from 90% in the past 10 years. The savings rate in the U.K. has declined from 13% in 1990, to 3% recently, as a result of the consumption boom.
The Bank of England has tightened monetary policy in recent years, but has cut interest rates only once so far. The base rate was cut by 25 basis points [a fourth of a percentage point] in December, and three-month Libor [London interbank offered rate] stands at 5.75%. The CPI [consumer-price index] is 2.1%. The vast evidence of indicators, be they coincident or leading for the U.K. economy, shows the economy has started to weaken. The home market is probably lagging the U.S. home market by about six to nine months. The Bank of England overdid it in tightening, and now is way behind the curve in cutting rates.
How much more will they have to cut?
Zulauf: At least two percentage points, if not more. Sterling has benefited because it became a high-yield currency. International reserves from the Middle East, Russia and Asia went into sterling and lifted its value. It is vulnerable here. It peaked at $2.08 in November, versus a low of $1.36 in '01. It is now at $1.98. In the next six months it probably declines to $1.80. It's an easy short against the dollar. You can also short sterling against the euro or the Swiss franc. Over the longer term, when the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and the U.K. in real terms has been less than 1% to the advantage of sterling, sterling always has weakened against the euro. Now it is at 70 basis points in real terms. [A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.] You can sell sterling short against the dollar in the futures market.
Faber: It may be easier to short a British-pound ETF, CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust [FXB].
Zulauf: On the long side, Fred already talked about gold [in last week's Roundtable installment]. I have recommended it several times over the years. Now it's $850 per ounce. The most important thing driving the price of gold is low real interest rates. Gold is also an anxiety indicator for the system, and this year may hold several more surprises. You can buy bullion through your broker or the GLD [streetTracks Gold Shares], and those who want to be more aggressive can buy the gold-mining ETF, GDX [Market Vectors Gold Miners].
On commodities: Go long sugar. The two largest sugar producers are Brazil and India. Production costs in both are about 14 cents per pound. The price of sugar is 11 cents, which means both countries are producing at a loss.
Even with rising ethanol demand?
Zulauf: Sugar-based ethanol costs about $1.25 a gallon if sugar is bought at 11 cents. Roughly 30% of the production cost is sugar cane. Ethanol currently sells for $1.82 a gallon in Brazil, while gasoline is $2.51. Ethanol is cheaper because its energy efficiency is not quite as high. Brazil produces five billion gallons of ethanol a year, and the government's goal is to increase production by more than 50% in the next three years, to eight billion gallons. Though ethanol refiners will demand more sugar, farmers won't produce it to sell below production costs. Demand eventually will move the price higher.
Brazil also exports ethanol to the U.S., Japan and China, and demand is growing because governments are increasing the amount of ethanol that can be mixed or blended with gasoline. Brazil already has a large fleet of so-called flex-fuel cars, which can run on either gasoline or ethanol, or a blend. They now account for 22% of Brazil's total fleet, and the government wants to raise this to 30%. But Brazilian farmers won't increase production if sugar stays at current levels.
What is happening in India?
Zulauf: The government sets an artificially high price that millers have to pay farmers, so the millers are losing money. They complained, and the government lowered prices this year to 110 rupees from INR120. Eventually, prices will fall to INR85. Sugar cane has a three-year cycle. It takes two years to harvest cane for the first time.
Because the price has declined 50% since February '06, there is less and less sugar produced, even as demand increases. Prices will rise in the next two to three years. In the past, when sugar started rising from a price below the cost of production, it rose 100% or more, on average. My target price is 20 cents.
How do you recommend buying sugar?
Zulauf: Buy long-dated futures. Two-year sugar is about 10% more expensive than the front months.
Witmer: At what price would sugar have to be sold to even up the price of ethanol and gasoline?
Zulauf: It would have to go about 30% higher. Governments around the globe have mandated that more and more ethanol be used, so it's a sure thing demand is going up.
My last pick is another laggard commodity -- cotton. The big producers are China, with about 30 million bales; India, with 23 million; the U.S., with 19 million; and Pakistan, with 11 million. The rest of the world produces 35 million bales, for total production of 119 million bales. A bale is 480 pounds. China consumes 54 million bales; India, 20 million; Pakistan, 12 million; and the U.S., five million. Weakening Chinese imports have held cotton prices low for the past two years, because China had an above-average harvest last year and the global inventory/consumption ratio was closer to the upper end of its historic range. Also, more acreage was used for corn. Due to high prices for corn, wheat and soybeans, less acreage will go to cotton in the 2008 planting season. Given weather problems, China's crop likely will be average.
What does demand look like?
Zulauf: Historically, it has grown a bit over 2% a year. In recent years, it is growing by 4% to 5%. Demand growth is coming from the developing world, where rising income growth translates into buying more clothes. Millions of people don't live in houses with walk-in closets. They usually have one pair of trousers and two shirts. If they have a little more income, they buy a second pair of trousers. That has a tremendous impact on demand for cotton.
Second, cotton competes with man-made fibers. Whenever crude oil has a strong run, demand for cotton goes up dramatically. This year, demand will rise sharply and production will go down, feeding into higher cotton prices in the next year or two. Cotton futures trade in the upper-60-cents-a-pound range. In the past 30 years, prices have ranged from 50 cents to 75 cents. There was one spike, in 1995, to $1.17 a pound, and two spikes on the downside in the 1960s and early '80s, to about 30 cents. Cotton will have another spike in the next year or two.
Samberg: Can I have joint ownership of that pick? I didn't recommend it this year because I did it last year.
That's thoughtful of you. Thanks, Felix. Abby, your turn.
Cohen: My recommendations reflect a 12-month horizon as opposed to the next six months. There is a general agreement in this room that the short term, and maybe the intermediate period, will be difficult for the economy and stocks. In that sort of environment, consumer staples like supermarkets look interesting. Health care also is defensive and will do OK in 2008, even though health-care stocks normally don't do well when investors are concerned about potential changes in the business following an election. But this year may be the exception to the rule, because so many important structural changes are under way in the industry, and many health-care shares represent good value. The industry has long-term, secular growth. I've tried to put together a list of stocks that could do well regardless of the elections.
Zulauf: In an election year, stocks usually rally from a second-quarter low. But if the incumbent party loses, the rally historically is weak.
Cohen: Ibiden, which trades in Tokyo, is viewed by many as a technology company, but it is really an environmental company. It is No. 1 in diesel-particulate filters, a product used not just in trucks but buses, off-road vehicles, construction equipment and passenger cars. Regulations relating to diesel have tightened in Europe, where diesel engines are more common than elsewhere. New regulations are coming in North America and emerging markets. The Chinese are much more concerned about particulate emissions than carbon-dioxide emissions, because you can see particulate emissions.
Ibiden has changed the way it prices some of its products so it doesn't have as much exposure to currency changes. Should the yen rally relative to the dollar, the impact would be only about half as much as previously. The stock is trading at about 7,100 yen, or about 18 times Goldman's fiscal 2008 earnings estimate, which is below the consensus. It has a modest dividend yield. Consensus estimates are out to lunch not just in the U.S. but in many other countries. We have encouraged our analysts to be aggressive in marking their estimates to realistic levels.
What are your estimates for Ibiden?
Cohen: For the year ending March '08, our analyst expects the company to earn ¥360. For the following year, they're expecting ¥394.
We also like Waste Management, which does exactly that. The stock is highly cyclical and often doesn't do well when the economy weakens. It has been under considerable pressure, and is trading around 31. The company is well managed and has a strong balance sheet. We're seeing the worst of the earnings now. Waste Management is trading for less than 15 times our 2008 earnings estimate of $2.18 a share, and has a 3% dividend yield. [The yield has since jumped to 3.30%.] Cash flow is strong and dividends will likely be raised this year. The company will be spending up to $800 million on share repurchases, so cash flow provides valuation support. What is missing is a catalyst.
What might that be?
Cohen: It may well be when consensus estimates fall to the right levels, or the economy looks a little better. Volumes will be constrained this year. Sales don't go up much, but will improve toward the end of '08 and into '09. On the margin, a lot of Waste Management's incremental growth has come from C&D, or construction and demolition. The company does well when there is a lot of housing construction and industrial activity. This year will see a switch from a C&D focus to more standard disposal operations, and that will insulate them in part from the weaker economy.
My third name, Rohm & Haas, also has been hard-hit. This is a chemical company with some special characteristics. It is trading at about 13 times our estimate for 2008: $3.90 a share. [Goldman subsequently lowered its '08 estimate to $3.80.] Its high was in excess of 60 per share, and it currently trades around 50. Return on equity could move somewhat higher in the next couple of years.
What is ailing Rohm & Haas?
Cohen: One concern is the pace of U.S. economic growth. Another is higher feedstock costs, due to higher petroleum prices. We expect prices to move somewhat higher in '08, but the increases won't be as large as they have been on an annualized basis in the past two to three years. That will help Rohm & Haas keep costs under control.
In addition, the company has broadened its global footprint. It does about 50% of its business in North America, but about 20% in Asia, 25% in Europe and 5% in Latin America. It gets about 35% of its sales from emerging economies, so to the extent growth in Europe and North America are more sluggish, that would be something of an offset. The company has used its good balance sheet to implement about $1 billion of share repurchases in late 2007. It has diversified its products, and its product cycle is important, but not well understood.
Why is that?
Cohen: There is a perception the company's health is tied to what is happening in the U.S. residential market. In fact, only about 15% of its business is tied to housing. The biggest and most profitable growth areas are in the semiconductor and electronic-materials markets, and coatings.
Also, Rohm & Haas engaged in the past few years in a number of corporate changes. For example, it acquired a unit from Eastman Kodak [EK] and did a joint venture with a Japanese company. Now it is seeing significant growth in things like flat-panel displays. It provides coatings and optical films for that business.
Gabelli: Abby, Dow Chemical [DOW] just sold a fairly large business. It is looking to buy a coatings and electronics company. Rohm & Haas is on its short list.
Cohen: I can't comment on that.
Gabelli: Notice how the attention level just went up.
Cohen: I wish you'd say something after each one of my names. [After the Roundtable, Goldman Sachs' analyst moved to a Neutral rating on Rohm & Haas, citing concerns about the macroeconomy and oil prices. The firm thinks macroeconomic pressures will begin to abate in the second half of the year.]
The semiconductor sector has performed poorly for the past four years. The industry is adjusting to the recognition of a different long-term growth rate, and there has been a dramatic change in relative valuation. Intel was trading at 48 times earnings in 2002, at 26 times in '04 and at 20 times in '06. It's currently trading at 15 times earnings, or about 23. The stock yields about 1.9%. Consensus estimates are too high for the sector, but when investors finally become comfortable that a recession is ending, or they believe it is fully priced into the market, Intel may be one of the names that attract attention. What we know from prior markets, and I'm not referring to particular stocks, is that market bottoms often are reached just as estimates are slashed.
Fred, what do you think of Intel?
Hickey: Intel has benefited from Advanced Micro Devices' [AMD] stumbling, but it's getting hit now. Personal-computer manufacturers are canceling or pushing out orders, which could cause trouble for several quarters. Intel still is in a dominant position. It would take quite a rebound for AMD to threaten it again. In terms of the semiconductor market, which is terrible, Intel is a high-quality player.
Black: The problem in semiconductors isn't volume. The ASPs [average selling prices] are getting bombed. The semiconductor market as a whole will grow 7% to 7.5% in nominal-revenue dollars worldwide this year. Growth will be much slower in the U.S. At the start of 2007, the Semiconductor Industry Association forecast worldwide industry growth of about 8.5% for the year. It later cut that forecast to 3.8%. Intel will earn about $1.50 a share for '08. [Consensus estimates have been cut to $1.40 a share after Intel lowered its guidance.] But it's cheap because it is a money machine with great free-cash flow and a bulletproof balance sheet.
Cohen: In addition, Intel's margins have expanded because the company has shifted its product mix toward servers and notebook computers. [Intel has fallen about 10% since the Roundtable met. According to Cohen, the valuation has become more compelling, as the stock trades below 15 times '08 estimates and now has a 2.6% yield, roughly the same as today's yield on a five-year Treasury bond.]
My next name, Xilinx, is in the same industry. It isn't for the faint of heart. It's for people looking out 12 months. The market will be in a more comfortable place a few months from now, as investors look toward 2009. Xilinx is a producer of PLDs, or programmable logic devices, which are used in a variety of applications. About 45% of sales have been in the communications industry. It has been hurt as the industry has consolidated and inventories have come under pressure. Now they are normalizing.
Where does the stock trade?
Cohen: The stock is selling for about 20. Like Intel, Xilinx is trading at about a four-year low on a relative and absolute P/E basis. It is trading for about 14 times our '08 estimates of $1.22 a share, and operating margins are about 24%. [Goldman subsequently raised its '08 forecast for Xilinx to $1.28 a share.] The company has a reasonable amount of cash, which it may use for share repurchases. The PLD market likely will grow because of increased applications. We've seen faster growth in the consumer, industrial, military and aerospace markets.
There are two risks here, in addition to a slowing economy. One is from other types of devices, called ASICs [application-specific integrated circuits], which are fixed-function as opposed to programmable. They are somewhat cheaper that Xilinx's products. Also, there are risks in the company's attempts to shift away from the communications market, if weakness in demand from that market persists awhile longer. Xilinx is down 11% to 12% in the past year. Earnings will grow modestly in 2008, and the stock yields above 2%.
Thanks, Abby. Marc, what have you got for us?
Faber: We aren't dealing purely with market forces today, but with an economy that is largely manipulated by central banks, which create excess liquidity by cutting interest rates dramatically and letting credit growth accelerate dramatically. I'd like to read a quote from a German newspaper published in 1923, when Germany was dealing with hyperinflation: 'There have been extraordinary rises in the quotations for all shares, the chief cause being the catastrophic change in the economic situation.' In other words, you could have a slump in the economy, yet share markets could go up simply because of excessive liquidity and interest rates being cut, theoretically, to zero.
Since 2002, all asset prices have risen substantially. Against this backdrop, I'll focus on pair trades -- assets that will perform better in the next three to six months relative to others. The U.S. is in a bear market, and earnings will disappoint here and worldwide. Cost pressures will diminish profit margins. The stock market doesn't have a bubble valuation, though the Standard & Poor's 500 is selling at a higher price-earnings multiple than is evident. Take out the energy sector and the S&P has a P/E of 20, not 15. If earnings decline -- partly because the energy sector won't have higher earnings this year than last, and also because the financial sector has diminishing earnings and the economy is in a recession -- then the S&P isn't cheap.
Cohen: If you were to sector-weight the S&P with the same sector weights as in Europe, the P/Es are identical.
Faber: I didn't say Europe is cheap. Stocks in the U.S. probably are cheaper than 10-year Treasuries. Cash has been a disastrous investment for the past 40 years because the purchasing power of money has diminished. I don't find any great values in the stock market now. If people want to buy stocks, stick to the recommendations I made last year. [You'll find them listed free of charge on Barron's Online, www.barrons.com, under the 2007 Roundtable Report Card.]
I still like gold, cotton and sugar. My new recommendation is to short the British pound against the yen. The pound, as Felix explained, is overvalued. It doesn't have a lot of upside potential compared to the dollar. It is probably less risky to short it against the yen than the dollar. [The pound has fallen 3.3% against the yen since Jan. 7. Faber remains short the pound.]
You can also short the euro against the yen. The euro is a relatively expensive currency and European economies aren't going to perform well. Europe also had a lot of excesses, and the ECB [European Central Bank] will cut rates dramatically. Central-bank monetary policies are leading to the competitive devaluation of currencies.
Zulauf: Which is good for gold.
Faber: I suppose so. Since 2001, emerging stock markets have significantly outperformed the U.S. It's not that I am bullish about the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones [industrial average], but they may go down less than emerging markets. If there's a strong rally in financial assets, it could be that the Dow outperforms emerging markets. I would short an emerging-market index via the ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund. You could also short the FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25, which mimics the 25 largest Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and China. And, there's an ETF, the ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25, which appreciates twice as much when the Chinese market goes down.
In the long run, the U.S. dollar will go down, but because of the diminishing current-account deficit, it doesn't have huge downside risk now. Negative sentiment on the dollar reached an extreme recently, with many front-page articles noting its decline.
Sentiment on the dollar was very bearish a year ago, too. Sentiment in this case didn't count.
Faber: It has reached extremes. It also has depreciated considerably against the euro. Today, I would buy the dollar.
At the moment, there is a war: The private sector is cutting credit and the central banks are cutting interest rates because they are desperate to revitalize credit growth. In the long run, the central banks will win, but in the next six to 12 months, relative credit contraction isn't going to be good for any asset class. In a year's time, the S&P 500 will be lower than it is today.
My next recommendation is a shipping short. I turned bearish about home-building stocks in 2005, and felt the troubles in the housing market would hurt the subprime-lending industry and spread to other sectors of the economy -- in particular, consumption. Private consumption now accounts for more than 70% of U.S. GDP, which is why I'm negative about the U.S. economy. The problems here will also affect other economies. The Chinese stock market is closely correlated with the Baltic Dry Index, a shipping index. Tanker rates have plunged, but the Baltic Dry Index is still in the sky. If you can't short the index, short DryShips [DRYS]. The BDI has fallen 28% since Jan. 7. Faber suggests remaining short DryShips.
Any other ideas, Marc?
Faber: Two trades today are totally out of favor. One is betting on the dollar, and the other is buying Japanese shares. I go to seminars, and whereas 10, 15 years ago there were hundreds of people attending the Japanese sessions, today there are hundreds attending sessions on investing in Vietnam. Nobody goes to the Japanese sessions anymore. It's remarkable that people talk about equity valuations being low in the U.S. compared with bond yields, while valuations in Japan are very low compared to the Japanese bond yield. Buy the Japanese stock market on a correction of 10% or so.
What would you buy?
Faber: Give your money to a good money manager, or just buy the index. The small-cap index is interesting. You can buy the iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap Index, an ETF.
Zulauf: The catalyst could be the Japanese bringing some of their money home and reinvesting it in the domestic market, which they haven't done in a long time. Ten-year Japanese government bonds are unattractive, yielding 1.5%. Many dividend-paying stocks are more attractive than 10-year bonds on a yield basis.
Gabelli: One group of non-Japanese investors is worried about poison pills, which have been used to stop takeovers. Corporate governance in Japan has taken a giant step backwards.
Faber: Many countries have opened up following the breakdowns of communism and socialism. China began opening in 1978, proceeding at different times and in different sectors. The same has occurred since the late '90s in India, and more recently, Vietnam. One country in Asia hasn't begun to attract a lot of attention, but has great potential. It is Cambodia. You can't play Cambodia now, but some Cambodia funds will be launched this year.
Eastern Europe has climbed the value scale. There isn't a big difference anymore between, say, Slovenia and Austria. Go further east, into Ukraine, and you'll find big opportunities in real estate, in particular agricultural land.
Basically, investors should avoid correlated assets such as the S&P 500 and the FTSE index, emerging markets, art prices and real estate in financial centers. I'm ultra-bearish about the financial sector, as it will contract for many years, not just one year. I wouldn't buy Citigroup [C] here, or Merrill Lynch [MER]. And as much as I like Abby, I wouldn't buy Goldman Sachs [GS]. I anticipate the day when half of Wall Street will be looking for jobs as drivers of tractors and combine machines.
Abby, you'd better sell. Thanks, Marc. Archie, you're on.
MacAllaster: I usually have a theme of sorts. This year, it's stocks that are at or near their lows for the year, though you have to be very patient in buying them. I think they will all be substantially higher by the end of the year. My first stock is Fidelity National Information Services, which was spun off by the old Fidelity National Title Insurance. Fidelity National Information is one of the largest handlers of savings and loan transactions. It is splitting into two companies, one for lender processing, the other for transaction processing. Lender processing accounts for 37% of revenues. Total revenues are about $4.6 billion.
The lender-processing business grows about 8% to 10% a year, and the transaction-processing business at 15%. The company announced it would spin off the lender-processing business in October. The stock is down over 30% from its high in July. It trades around 39.
What are the businesses worth as stand-alone companies?
MacAllaster: Transaction processing, which is the largest business of this sort in the country, probably is worth 40 to 45 by itself. Lender processing is worth perhaps 18 or 20. The stock was knocked down because lender processing has to do with mortgages; the company handles mortgage paperwork. The subprime crisis probably has helped them, because there is even more processing when mortgages are in default. My target is 60 to 65 by year end.
I also like Hanmi Financial, a Korean-American Bank primarily in California. It has about $4 billion in total assets. The company had a straight-up record for several years, but they, too, got involved in the mortgage problem and announced third-quarter earnings of 23 cents a share, compared with expectations of 32 cents to 33 cents. The market took the stock from 22 to 7.44, and that's where it trades now. It pays a 24-cent dividend and yields 3.2%. Hanmi earned $1.33 a share in 2006, and it should do about $1.06 for '07. Book value is $10.28 a share, so it is trading 30% under book. This year, earnings will be about flat, at $1.06 to $1.10 a share. There is even a chance the company will be bought by another Korean-American bank.
What would a buyer pay?
MacAllaster: About $12 to $14 a share, but that's a guess. Going from small to very large, I have owned Bank of America forever, and I still like it. The low for the past year was about 39, where it is selling now, and the high was 54. The dividend is $2.56 a share and the yield is 6.4%. They indicated they had some problems in the fourth quarter, but said they would still be in the black. They earned $3.10 a share for the first nine months, so perhaps they'll earn 25 to 30 cents in the fourth quarter and $3.30 to $3.35 for the year. [The company reported Tuesday that it earned five cents a share in the fourth quarter after trading losses, many related to mortgage-backed securities.]
Bank of America is America's largest retail bank, and the second-largest measured by total assets of about $1.6 trillion. The chairman, Ken Lewis, is an old-time banker. When things go wrong, he gets teed off and tends to do something about it. He has done an excellent job. A lot of people think Bank of America will cut its dividend, but I don't think there's a chance in the world. I think they'll raise it this year; they have raised it a little in each of the past 20 to 25 years. My target price for the stock is 55. [Bank of America agreed to buy Countrywide Financial after Jan. 7. As a result, MacAllaster now doubts the dividend will be increased.]
What else do you like, Archie?
MacAllaster: Lincoln National is another high-quality company. The high on the stock was 74, the low 54, where it's trading now. The dividend is 41.5 cents per quarter. Book value is $44 a share. The yield is just over 3%. Earnings for '06 were $5.18, and my '07 estimate is $5.40. My estimate for this year is $6. Lincoln, which merged with Jefferson-Pilot, writes business and life-insurance annuity products, and manages a lot of money. Some years ago, it sold its property and casualty business and moved its operations from Indiana to Philadelphia. For years, you couldn't make money in the stock because they always had a great story but ended up earning 10% or 11% on equity. Now they're earning 13.5% to 14%. My target for next year is 70.
VeriFone Holdings has really been beaten up. It is selling for about 18 a share, down from 50. The company originally was bought by Hewlett-Packard [HPQ], which later sold it. Then it went private, and a few years ago came public again. The company was booming and reporting great earnings, and merged with an Israeli company. The stock was selling at 50 bucks, and all of a sudden the accounting went 'phooey.' And nobody knows how phooey, because they haven't said. They will have to restate the last few years of earnings, which won't happen until the end of March. The estimates before the trouble were $1.60 to $1.65 a share. Now they might earn $1.30 for the year.
What does VeriFone do?
MacAllaster: It handles credit-card transactions. Sales have been strong and remain so. The company is growing rapidly in Europe, and the company has a great chance. It's earning good money. Basically, they screwed up.
Next, I have a gas play, Chesapeake Energy. It is selling around 39 a share. The high was 41, the low 27. It pays a small dividend -- 27 cents. The future of natural-gas energy in the U.S. is bright. Gas is half the price of oil, and clean and available. The price is going substantially higher. Chesapeake was expected to earn $3.10 to $3.15 a share last year, and it could earn close to $4 a share this year. It has a P/E between 10 and 11, compared with 14 for Devon Energy [DVN] and XTO [XTO]. The CEO, Aubrey McClendon, has been buying shares left and right.
Black: The company has hedged its production successfully. When the price of gas futures goes to $10 or $11 per Mcf [thousand cubic feet], he sells forward.
MacAllaster: I'm re-recommending Hartford Financial Services. Last year, I said they could earn about 10 bucks in '07, but they're actually earning $10.36. The stock was about 91 last January. It went up to 106, and then fell to 82.95. It has a combined ratio [incurred losses and expenses, divided by earned premium] of roughly 92. The dividend is $2.12 a share. Earnings this year will be above $10. The company doesn't show much growth because premiums are coming down. They have 18% returns on equity, and the stock could sell at 120 sometime in the next year. That's it.
That's good. Thanks. Scott, you're last, but never least.
Black: We didn't talk much about energy today, but year-end demand for oil was about 85.5 million barrels a day. Worldwide supply was around 87 million-plus. There is very little swing factor. That suggests oil will stay fairly steady at $75 to $80-plus per barrel. The gas business is more regional. Demand from China will rise to 10 million barrels a day from 7.5 million, and demand from India is going to ramp up. The U.S accounts for just under 25% of worldwide demand. This leads me to Devon Energy, in Oklahoma City. The stock closed Friday [Jan. 4] at 90 a share. There are 450 million shares outstanding, and the market-cap, which is large for us, is $40.6 billion. They pay a small dividend -- 56 cents a share, for a yield of 0.6%.
Devon produced 223 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2007, split roughly 60%/40% between gas and oil. Revenues for '07 should be about $11.2 billion, earnings per share, $6.30. The company predicted it will produce 240 million to 247 million barrels of oil equivalent this year, up 10% from the drill bit, assuming no acquisitions. If you assume gas is $7 per Mcf and they get a 14% discount on the Henry Hub price, that means $5.3 billion in revenues from gas. If oil is $80 a barrel and they get an 11% discount to WTI [West Texas Intermediate crude], that's just under $7 billion of oil revenue. Total revenues will be $12.28 billion.
What about earnings?
Black: If total expenses are $7.27 billion and they are taxed at a 33% rate, you get $3.36 billion, or roughly $7.50 a share. The P/E is 12.1. Devon's discretionary cash flow is $7.2 billion, or $16 per share, so it's selling at 5.6 times cash flow, which isn't cheap or expensive. Return on equity will be 15% this year. The balance sheet is deleveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, so you get about a 12.5% return on total capital.
As for asset protection, start with year-end reserves from '06 of 708 million barrels of oil, 8.36 Tcf [trillion cubic feet] of gas, and 275 million barrels of natural-gas liquids, or NGL. The net present value of those reserves is about $37.8 billion. They added a net 355 million barrels-of-oil equivalent in 2007, of which 10% was oil, 90% gas, bringing total reserve value to $44 billion, or an extra $14 a share. Midstream gas assets account for another $1.7 billion of value. Back out debt and deferred taxes of $10.9 billion, and you get a value of $34.9 billion, or 77.52 a share.
Also, Devon had a major find in 2004 in the Jack field in the Gulf of Mexico, one of the largest oil fields ever hit in the U.S. They estimate they'll net two billion to five billion barrels just from the lower tertiary trend in four big deepwater fields in the Gulf. That's another $44 a share, for a total asset value of $122 a share. Their finding and development costs have been cheap, at $2.04 per Mcfe [thousand cubic-feet equivalent], though they'll jump a bit this year as the company does deepwater drilling. Devon is a powerhouse company. It is statistically cheap, they know what they're doing, and international assets represent only 10% of the total, so you don't have to worry about the threat of expropriation.
Gabelli: Who is the operator on the Jack field?
Black: It's Chevron [CVX]. I like offshore drilling. Ensco is a similar play. It operates a fleet of 45 rigs, 14 domestic and 30 international. Contracts on 11 will roll off in the next six months. It also has one semi-submersible rig in the Gulf of Mexico, which it leases to Chevron, and a barge in Southeast Asia. Day rates are running $143,199, and about $201,000 on the semi-submersible. Barge rates are $71,500. Assume 90% utilization on the jack-up fleet, which is where they are now, and a slight increase to $160,000 a day, and you get estimated revenue of $2.4 billion for '08, up from $2.13 billion. The operating margin is about 57%, which gets you about $1.37 billion of operating earnings. Interest income on the company's cash is about $22 million. If they repurchase about seven million shares, earnings per share could be $7.75 for '08, up from $6.60.
Where is the stock trading?
Black: The stock is 59, and the P/E multiple is 7.6, which is half the market multiple. Free cash flow will be about $700 million, and return on equity 26%. They have more cash than debt. On a replacement-cost basis, the jack-ups are worth roughly $220 million apiece. They just paid $470 million for the semi-submersible. Two others are in the shipyard being built, for a total of $10.5 billion. Strip out debt and deferred taxes, and you get a break-up value of $70.65 a share, against a stock at 59.
Is it going to be broken up?
Black: No, but you like to have asset protection. I use the Benjamin Graham approach -- that you have to buy something at a discount to break-up value.
Gabelli: There's a whole bunch of takeover activity going on in this business. So, who does what to whom?
Black: Just a handful of these companies are still independent. Rowan [RDC], Noble Energy [NBL] and Ensco are the three left that have a combination of jack-ups and semi-submersibles. There's also Hercules Offshore [HERO], but it has an older generation of jack-ups in the Gulf of Mexico. Ensco has been buying back shares; they have a $422 million authorization remaining. At today's price, that would be seven million shares.
Fred might disagree with my next pick, Avnet, but it's cheap and way off its high. Last year, I recommended Arrow Electronics [ARW] and it worked out. Arrow and Avent are in a horse race, just like Xilinx and Altera [ALTR], Abby. Avnet is trading at 31.64, down from 44.68. There are 153.5 million fully diluted shares, and a $4.86 billion market-cap. The fiscal year ends June 30. For the June '07 year, they reported revenue of $15.7 billion and earnings per share of $2.63. Subsequent acquisitions would add $802 million to revenues, getting you to base revenues of $16.5 billion. Operating margins were 4.32%, and they plan to lift them to 4.9% in the next three years. They're going to try to take the return on total capital to 14%, from 12.5%. The markets they serve grow by about 7% to 7.5% a year. They can gain market share and make acquisitions, and their goal for top-line growth is 9% to 10% a year.
What do your numbers look like for the June '08 year?
Black: They did $16.48 billion in pro forma revenue in fiscal '07, and will do $17.8 billion this year. With margins up slightly to 4.45%, operating income will be $792 million for June '08, and net income $502 million, or $3.27 a share. In June '09, we're looking at revenues of $19.1 billion, up 7.5%, and earnings per share of $3.65. The midpoint in earnings on a calendar-year basis would be $3.46 a share, and the P/E multiple is 9.1. Return on equity for this year will be 14%. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.19, and return on capital is 11.8%. Free cash flow for fiscal '08 will be $291 million. Avnet has said it wants to generate about $1 billion of free cash in the next three years.
Where do you see the stock going?
Black: If they earn $3.60 a share, there is no reason it can't go back to 40. Roughly 62% of Avnet is electronics distribution from about 300 component manufacturers. The other portion of the business is tech solutions, a fancy name for mid- to high-end servers, data storage, software and such. This business has lower margins of about 3.87%, versus 5.47% for the electronics unit. But in many cases, returns on capital for tech solutions are higher because there's no capital tied up in the business.
What's next, Scott?
Black: Consumer-discretionary spending is a disaster. Ross Stores is at its absolute low for the past few years. The stock has come down from 35 and change to 23.14. The company pays a small dividend of 30 cents a share, and the market-cap is $3.15 billion. They want to grow square footage about 8% to 10% a year. Comparable-store sales grow about 3% a year, and total revenue 11% to 13%. The company generates nothing but free cash and uses it to buy back shares. For years, they earned 30% on book value and total capital. Last year, they did 27% on both. They think it's reasonable to grow earnings by 15% to 20% over five years.
What does Ross Stores sell?
Black: They're the second-largest off-price retailer after T.J. Maxx. Ross is in 27 states. Goods are priced 20% to 60% below department-store prices, and many brands are the same. The average Ross ticket is about $30. A new concept, dd's Discounts, hasn't done well, with about 52 stores. There are 893 stores in all.
For the year ending Jan. 31, 2008, the company has said it will report revenue of about $6 billion and earnings of $1.83 to $1.89. Let's use $1.85. They grow their square footage at about 8% and have zero "comps" because the consumer is in the tank, even though their consumer did better same-store-saleswise through November.
Why is that?
Black: Department-store customers like to buy brand names for less. The income demographic of the Ross Dress for Less customer is $50,000 to $60,000 a year, and women make 85% of the purchasing decisions. So, let's say sales are $6.48 billion, operating income is $447 million and net income after a 38% tax rate is $275 million. They buy back another $100 million of stock, which gets average shares outstanding down to 134 million and earnings per share to $2.05 on the low side. On the high side, they could do about $2.12. Use a midpoint of $2.09, and the stock sells for 11 times earnings, giving you a 25% return on total capital. There is no debt. Working the numbers, they'd generate about $138 million in free cash.
Ross has a five-point plan for improving margins: Reduce markdowns, enhance the distribution centers, improve inventory turns, reduce shrink [in-house theft] and impose strict cost controls. Starting this year, the company is moving away from centralized merchandising to customization. They are going to micromanage the assortment store by store.
Schafer: That sounds risky.
Black: They'll see what sells "in Biloxi versus Nashville," to use the company's quote. Some 15% of stores will be converted to micromanagement this year, and another 50% will be customized by 2009.
With the exception of one stumble a few years ago with an inventory-management system, Ross has done extremely well. Right after the dot-com bubble in '02 and '03, I used to ask people, "What's the most successful company in Silicon Valley?" They might scratch their heads and say "Intel," but it was Ross Stores, then headquartered in Newark, Calif. It might be a risky pick in the short term, but it's a decent franchise.
I've got two small-cap picks. Horsehead Holding came out of bankruptcy in 2002. The symbol is ZINC. For those of you with long memories, this is a roll-up of the old New Jersey Zinc, which Charlie Bluhdorn owned when he ran Gulf & Western. The stock has been devastated. The high was 26.14, and it now trades for 16.80. There are 34.8 million shares and a $585 million market-cap. They did about $552 million in sales in '07, and will come in with $2.80 in earnings.
Schafer: That's Meryl's kind of multiple.
Black: Earnings will be down a bit this year, to $2.20 to $2.70, depending on your estimates for zinc. The company collects zinc dust, processes it and then sells it at a premium of about 25 cents per pound over the LME [London Metal Exchange] price. The price of zinc tanked in the late 1990s. They were selling it below cost. Lately, it was up to $1.40 to $1.45 a pound, and has come down to about $1.15. Volumes are going up. Last year, they sold about 140,000 tons, and this year they'll sell about 152,000 tons. They have put options on 90,000 tons at a dollar.
Oscar: So they can put it to somebody else at a dollar if prices tank?
Black: Yes. One of their bigger customers is Trinity [TRN], the railroad-car maker. Zinc also goes into tires and rubber and medical products. If the LME price is a buck, they will have revenue of $511 million, operating income of $137 million and earnings per share of $2.19 on the low end. If zinc stays at $1.15 a pound, revenues could rise to $557 million and earnings per share to $2.68. Take the midpoint, $2.43, and Horsehead sells for about 6.8 times earnings.
Schafer: Do they have a lot of debt?
Black: The company has zero debt and $77 million, or $2.22 a share, in cash and equivalents. Returns based on $2.43 of earnings are about 30.6% on book value and total capital.
Faber: What happens if zinc prices drop another 30%?
Black: They're protected this year with the puts, but it would be a problem thereafter. In 1994, zinc got as high as $1.77 a pound. It dropped to about 60 cents in 2000-'01. This year, it spiked above $1.40. The company is headquartered in Monaca, Pa. The risk/reward here is pretty good.
What is your other small-cap?
Black: My last company is based in Israel, and is more of an asset play. It's Elron Electronic Industries, ELRN. This was once a great tech company. It fostered Elbit Medical, which specialized in CT-scanning technology. They were the first to do body scans. It also spun out Elbit Systems, which creates ground-mapping systems not only for the Israeli air force but U.S. pilots. When you're flying at Mach 2.2, you know exactly where you are. They also make ground-mapping systems for the planes the U.S. sells to the Emirates and Kuwait.
Elron Electronic is now a venture-capital company. Their leading operating company, Given Imaging, developed what originally was a military technology, a camera in a pill. You swallow it and it captures images of your gastrointestinal tract. It represents 30% of Elron's value. Given has a market value of about $145 million. Revenues will go to $143 million this year from $110 million, and earnings per share to 42 cents from 18 cents. The company has a good management team, and Israel Makov, who left Teva Pharmaceutical Industries [TEVA], just went on the Given board to help them with strategy.
Elron's stakes in publicly traded companies equal $212 million, or $7.18 a share. The private companies, at their current stage of financing, are worth $7.02 a share. Add $2.15 a share of net cash, and the break-up value is $16.35 on an $11.50 stock. The company is selling for 70 cents on the knock-down value.
Gabelli: This is like a public merchant-banking fund.
Black: Except that it gives you play in four separate areas. The other businesses include Galil Medical, which is involved in cryo-therapeutic surgery; NuLens, for cataract surgery; and Medingo, which is developing an insulin-dispensing patch with a lot of potential. Elron owns 51% of the company. Elron also owns 17% of NetVision, the largest Internet-service provider in Israel; Atlantium, which specializes in water disinfection; and so on.
You are buying a chance on some good incubator companies at a big discount. There is no financial risk here, because the balance sheet is clean with cash. Last year, they invested about $51.9 million. This year, they will spend about another $50 million, but still have cash on the balance sheet. Ultimately, Elron will take public some of its companies, harvesting gains as it did with Elbit Medical and Elbit Systems.
Gabelli: Scott, some of these companies do second and third rounds of financing through rights offerings and such. Are they raising more capital?
Black: In some cases, yes, but Elron remains the controlling shareholder in every company. This is a good way to tap into a lot of good science.
Gabelli: It is a terrific idea. They just need more money.
Black: Or more home runs like Given.
Thank you, Scott, and everyone.


text:
Race has always been one of the most sensitive topics of American water cooler conversation. However, that same sensitivity has made the perfect marketing tool in the sports world, particularly in the world of fighting. Some of the greatest battles of fight history have come by way of race vs. race match-ups: James Jeffries vs. Jack Johnson, Joe Louis vs. Rocky Marciano, even Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier I, II, and III were fueled by racial undertones between two African American fighters.
Today we approach another big fight with feelings of racial frustration, or at least racially motivated marketing: UFC 121's Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez for the UFC Heavyweight Title. This weekend reigning champ Lesnar will meet undefeated Mexican-American fighter Cain Velasquez in what is being pumped as a 'Clash of Titans' fight. Despite being undefeated, Cain's marketability has become a matter of question, and as a result the race card has been pulled to motivate media/fan attention. But a bold and boisterous Brock Lesnar never holds back. The following Lesnar comment, made in a Spike TV-UFC 121 preview video brought the race issue to the center of the Octagon: "Listen, when I get done whooping your ass, I'm gonna go drink a Corona and eat a burrito just for your Hispanic heritage. How about that?"
A Word of Advice for Mr. Lesnar:
Brock, your safety wouldn't be much of a concern if it were just Cain Velasquez you'd have to deal with following such comments, but my street experience tells me there could be any number of angry Latinos standing behind him. I'd tone it down and focus on the fight in the Octagon!


text:
My Nonprofit Reviews
Review for Cerge-Ei Foundation, Teaneck, NJ, USA
I am continually impressed by the vitality and promise of the diverse CERGE-EI student body and by CERGE's success in educating students from developing countries in modern economics. The doctoral program attracts the most promising students from a wide range of regions and educational backgrounds. Moreover, a huge percentage of CERGE-EI graduates remain in the region to serve in creating and implementing economic policy for developing countries that are often still emerging from the effects of communism. CERGE's program is extremely cost-effective and ranks among the best efforts at making possible a rational, productive future for this region and the world.
More Feedback
I've personally experienced the results of this organization in...
meeting with the students and graduates and seeing the results in graduate placements.
How frequently have you been involved with the organization?
About every six months
When was your last experience with this nonprofit?


text:
Revision [1948]
This is an old revision of BreakTheirWill3an made by AnathemaMatou on 2008-08-09 11:15:59.
Break their Will, Level 3 (Angel Cartel)
Last edited by AnathemaMatou:
Sat, 09 Aug 2008 11:15 EDT
Sat, 09 Aug 2008 11:15 EDT
Faction: Angel Cartel, Mercenaries
Mission type: Encounter
Space type: Deadspace
Damage dealt: All
Reccomended damage dealing: Kin Primary, Exp/Therm Secondary
Completed in: Tempest Fleet Issue with low skills (25 days old with 1.6 mil SPs at the time JakeMcCord)
Single PocketNo rats present when you warp in. Destroy the Aux Power Generators or the station will auto heal, after this destroy the station. A group of rats will spawn when you shoot at the station, make sure you destroy it first of the rats will be insta- repaired.
Spawn 1Arrives when you shoot at the station
3x Cruiser (Gistum Crusher, Breaker, Depredator)
6x Destroyer (Gistior Seizer, Shatterer)
3x Heavy Missile Batteries
1x Stasis Tower
Spawn 2Arrives at some point after you attack the first spawn
4x Cruiser (Mercenary Lieutenant, Commander)
1x Destroyer


text:
The Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Council, the youth wing of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, on Monday backed calls for an 'internal revolution' against political, traditional, religious and opinion leaders in Igboland.
The Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra had on Sunday accused Igbo leaders of betrayal, saying they were responsible for the plight of the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu, and other pro-Biafran activists.
MASSOB, which spoke through its leader, Comrade Uchenna Madu, threatened to organise an internal revolution against the concerned Igbo leaders if Kanu was not released from prison before Christmas.
Reacting to the threat, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Council said it would support any plan to "sanitise" Igboland and "punish Igbo politicians who have not done anything to improve the lives of Ndigbo."
OYC, which spoke through the chairman of the committee of state chairmen, Alex Okemiri, said it was already compiling a list of the concerned politicians.
The Ohanaeze youth wing noted that while Igbo complained of marginalisation by the Federal Government, their leaders were also marginalising them at home.
"Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Council agrees with MASSOB that most Igbo political actors have failed to put the interest of Ndigbo first in their act and need to be taught some lessons.
"While there is obvious external marginalisation of Ndigbo, there is also the internal marginalisation by our own people.
"What do our governors do with the money that comes to Igboland? Most of them use it to buy land, houses and choice properties all over the world. Some of them travel all over the world at every opportunity. They owe pensioners and workers for months. They do not care about the youths," Okemiri said in the statement.
He added, "We are now compiling a list of such politicians and we shall hand over the list to MASSOB for a proper sanction while we shall also carry out our own sanctions."
Specifically, the irate youths warned that the concerned leaders would soon be expelled from Igboland, if they refused to change.
OYC said, "In fact, if by December this year, such failed politicians fail to turn a new leaf, they will leave Igboland for us because we cannot tolerate such people in our midst again.
"They cannot stay in Igboland and use our resources to better only their lives and the lives of their girlfriends and hangers-on while their subjects suffer unduly."
They also warned contractors of Igbo extraction, who got Federal Government contracts for projects in Igboland but failed to execute them.
"Igbo contractors also given contracts in Igboland who fail to execute such contracts creditably will also face the music," the group said.
October 18, 2016 at 9:02 am
This is d begining of d grtness nd d strongest unity of ndigbo. All glory b to God nd Tnks to MASSOB, d super pioneer
October 18, 2016 at 9:43 am
Comment…pls do, even we got Biafra today, the best for there to be and tranquility is there to be internal revolution, whip these men out, so that the government will not be high jack.