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Curious about how often I do what & when? Well, here you go! My hair diary. This is what I do.
You can click on the event name (ie "Dry Shampoo" or "Argan Oil") to get details about the process I used.
I do brush my hair everyday with a regular hairbrush from a drug store. Other than that, everything I do to my hair is listed in this calender.
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
I used a little dry shampoo today. See the recipe here: http://thecrunchymoose.com/dry-shampoo/
I washed my hair with rye flour and some essential oils (about 2 tablespoons rye flour, 2 drops each of ylang ylang & rosemary essential oils, and a couple tablespoons of water to form a paste). Read more about rye flour here.


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the show lodged nearly 40 million 'demand expressions' and had stronger U.S. demand than four of 2019's biggest streaming originals – "The Umbrella Academy," "When They See Us," "The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance" and "Good Omens".
That said, the series registered less than 40% of the demand of Netflix's supernatural hit "Stranger Things" over the same time period, was also behind DC Universe's "Titans," and didn't crack the Top 10 for the week across networks and digital services.
Disney+ has ranked as the No. 1 overall free app in the U.S. on Apple's App Store and Google Play since launch and has generated $5 million through in-app purchases so far, sending Disney stock to new heights today. Even so, there's no independent verification of Disney's published numbers so far and thus no way at present to determine the actual number of paid subscribers.
Utilisateurs parcourant ce forum: Aucun utilisateur enregistré et 1 invité

subset: commoncrawl


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Scripture is clear and understandable, but it's not exhaustive.
—we've been set free in Christ. But how do we know what to do with our freedom?
Should believers dance?
Should they smoke or drink?
Should men and women go swimming together?
Should women wear makeup?
Should people work on Sundays?
Should women work at all?
Should Christians attend movies or concerts?
Should they watch TV?
Should they send their children to public schools, or even private schools?
Should Christians gamble?
And should they tattoo their bodies?
Does the Bible speak to these issues?
Exactly what are the limits to Christian liberty?
Can we know?


text:
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This French style restaurant is a little oasis in Sea Point
Update 3 May 2018: Eight years later, there's also the start of an additional era: La Mouette Opening a new 'Upper Bloem' restaurant – in Green Point.
With a name like La Mouette it's not hard to guess that the cuisine must be French. La Mouette restaurant in Sea Point is the new 'Frenchie' around the corner for locals with a taste for finer food options and a destination restaurant for Cape Town's foodies. Maybe you know the space – the well known Europa restaurant was situated in the building at 78 Regent Road for a long time and after that it was called Russel's Carvery. The beautiful building was empty for a year before becoming this French style finer dining hot spot – for private dinners, corporate functions and parties.
La Mouette means seagull in French. Since Sea Point has lots of seagulls and you can smell the sea breeze from the La Mouette courtyard, the name is quite suited. The restaurant was a mutual dream of three young people: Gerrit Bruwer, Mari Vermaak and Henry Vigar. Gerrit (35) and Mari (31) met during their university days in Joburg and often spoke about opening a restaurant together one day. Mari left for the UK to gain experience in the food industry for a couple of years. There she met Henry (29), they fell in love and soon decided to move to the sunnier side of life, here in Cape Town. After meeting up with Gerrit again (who also owns a printing company in Joburg), they found the Sea Point venue and decided this was where they would make the dream come true.
La Mouette opened on the 1st of May 2010 and so far it is well visited by locals and people all around Cape Town. It's a cosy, intimate place, perhaps because the three people who own it together love each other. It feels familiar, like it's been there for quite a while. The building and interior itself feels like it has stories to tell. It has a good old character, enhanced by the happy and friendly atmosphere.
"The venue really made the restaurant" says Gerrit.
La Mouette has a couple of dining rooms (each one with it's own fireplace), so privacy and lots of warmth is always guaranteed. Chef Henry Vigar has a chef-CV many would dream about. He used to work in the South of France and at La Mouette he also tries to bring across a that sought after Mediterranean flair.
La cuisine at La Mouette
Suprise, surprise. La Mouette is an upper class restaurant, but affordable. It is "finer dining", as Gerrit, Mari and Henry say. It looks like fine dining but it's more approachable.
Voilà, we are here to have a La Mouette lunch. For starters (R35 each) I'm having Tuna tartare with avocado puree, toast and cress. It's fresh, looks beautiful and is served as a hearty portion. My colleague Lize chooses a potato fondant with caramelized onion, crispy pancetta and brie. The flavours are indulgent and perfect to whet the appetite for the next course. For mains (R80 each) Lize has the Braised Veal Short Rib with lentils, sweet potato puree and pickled shiitake mushrooms. Sounds complicated but is simply delicious and a must-try. My Confit Duck with a peppercorn sauce, red cabbage and sautéed potatoes is breathtaking and reminds me of all the yummy Sunday-lunches my hobby-chef dad prepared.
We are already convinced that we will return when we are in urge of delicous good food. The French onion soup would make a magnifique light lunch, especially at R35 and combined with a nice glass of wine from the well selected wine list. There is also a selection of Tapa style dishes to linger over, also well priced at R35 each. La Mouette has some firm favourites on the wine-menu, including choices from L'Avenir, Villiera, Tokara, Jordan, Warwick and Waterford as well as French Champagne (Moet and Bollinger) - for when the occasion absolutely calls for extravagance.
Already more than full-filled, we try the desserts (R35 each), simply because they come absolutely recommended.
"This was orgasmic," said one happy customer about Gerrit's favourite dessert, the 'Gin and tonic' – which, by the way, contains no alcohol and is simply made from tonic jelly, gin syrup and lime ice cream. A close second is the passion fruit curd which is served with bite sized doughnuts and topped with Greek yogurt and honey foam. We agree that it is just as orgasmic as the Gin and tonic.
Mari, chef Henry's fiancé talks about La Mouette's philosphy and says "We want Sea Point to become a eat-out-destination with world class food and we wanna add to that. We are a couple and a bunch of friends, this is a happy space, we all gel very well".
Henry adds: "We wanna cook nice food in a nice environment and have an excellent service". After these words you just have to visit this 'Frenchie' for a lunch or supper. The dinner-menu offers a slightly bigger and more formal variety of dishes, starters cost R50, mains R110 and desserts R50.
Visitors call La Mouette a small oasis in Sea Point. We think it's like a fresh sea breeze in an area too long left without fine cuisine.
by Antonia Heil
La Mouette | 78 Regent Road | Sea Point | Cape Town | +27 (0)21 433 0856
Opening hours: Monday - Sunday 12 to 3pm; Monday - Saturday 7pm to 10.30pm
Cafe by day, French bistro by night, here's why you should discover The Moveable Feast.
Adore the La Mouette experience? You'll love Upper Bloem, its new sister restaurant with shareable plates.
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As each generation passes, we learn more about who we are, and the world we live in. You would think we'd constantly be improving, but sometimes that just isn't the case. Sometimes our ancestors just got it better than we did, and we have to try to live up to them. No pressure.
RandomDude72636 asked: What is the one thing our ancestors did better than us today?
That's nuts.
"The fact that they somehow found out that Cashew nuts are tasty as f**k. The shell is poisonous, the oil from the shell is poisonous, the nut is ok. If you pick one, shell it and eat it you will get a poison ivy type reaction everywhere it touched you."
A lost art form.Giphy
"Handwriting, I've found. It's not universal, but from what I've seen, the younger you go the worse the handwriting gets."
That hits hard.
"Forming social circles where everyone supports each other. In the past it was much more difficult for people to feel lonely."
Nowadays, they're more sheltered.
"Parents let their kids have some autonomy. Kids today are supervised 24/7 and I have to sign their homework every day. How about letting these kids sink or swim on their own a little bit so they can learn to fix problems on their own?"
More skill was required.Giphy
"The blacksmiths back then were definitely more skilled then the ones today by far! Modern blacksmiths might produce better work, but only due to better tools. and modern blacksmiths definitely aren't as talented at engraving as medieval blacksmiths were.
As a modern blacksmith myself, my mind is blown how they could produce such amazing sophisticated weaponry with the tools they had."
A sad truth.
"Eating. They didn't shove a bunch of highly-processed garbage in their face- our ancestors ate real whole foods."
The more you know.
"Grip strength.
Humans have been re-speccing grip strength for thousands of years ever since moving out of the more primitive ages where one would need to climb mountains, fashion tools, and club animals to death as a way of life. And millions of years ago when our genetic ancestors of different species used to swing from and climb in trees, it was as essential then to possess such a brawn.
But now even between a single generation of humans our grip strength has diminished. Millennials have roughly 20% weaker grip strength than their same-age counterparts thirty years ago. This may be due to many factors ranging from a shift to engaging in technologies that do not require such power capacities to being coddled more in upbringing by parents wishing to guard their children against facing adversities."
They're real.Giphy
"Not having to worry about the lizard people."
How the times have changed.
"Stay in shape. Back in ye ol' days, being fat was a status symbol since you were rich enough to eat like a bastard all day long.
Being skinny or muscular was really only for peasants who had to do manual labor for a living or were actively starving."
That's fair.
"Getting high. I mean, they had coke in coke."


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What's the High-End – Part II
Last month we talked about what a high-end home was. After looking at the data for Boulder County for the last 16 years, I came up with the answer that the top 3% of the market was the high-end. In the raw data, there was a hitch in many years when you reached that 3% level, a jump larger than other increments that implied there was something different as you moved from the top 4% to the top 3%. After looking at all of that data, I was also left with the curiosity to see how those price levels played out across the individual cities in the County. As usual, some time with my head buried in Excel and I have some answers and some further questions. Here are the breakdowns for the individual Cities in the County for 2017 Sales using IRES only data, the chart of Single Family homes first, Attached homes second and combined third.
You can see that I've highlighted in yellow the sales price for each city that would have put that home into the top 3% of all 2017 sales for both single family and attached. The first thing I realized when I looked at this city by city data is that the hitch in my data at the 3% level has disappeared. When comparing prices within each city, apples to apples, there typically is just a smooth transition between the different price percentiles. An interesting result and one that throws out my assertion that there was something special about that 3% level.
Another thing that jumped out of the data is that we live in an expensive area, I know, shocking news. The Median Price for a home in the State of Colorado is $363,386 and for the nation as a whole, $213,146. The most affordable City within Boulder County is Longmont with a Median Price higher than the state median and far higher than the national median. 40% of City of Boulder sales were over $1M in 2017 and surprisingly to me, over 6% of City of Louisville sales were over $1M.
The more I contemplated this data, I also came to the realization that comparing City to City also has issues. We know of many areas where a City line is drawn, and on the other side of the City line is a subdivision composed of homes in a much different price point that gets included into a different area. Think of Portico (Suburban Plains) versus SW Longmont, Boulder Country Club versus the rest of Gunbarrel (the City of Boulder parts and the Suburban Plains parts), and White Hawk Ranch (Suburban Plains) versus the City of Lafayette. One other area of question, the Suburban Mountains. I would bet without looking that most of the high-end sales in that area were for the very close in to Boulder properties and not the homes up by Allenspark. I'm sure there are other similar areas as well scattered throughout the County. So how do you account for those differences? Should those areas be lumped in with the nearby Cities or not? This is really more of comment on the Area/Subarea structure of the MLS data. Possibly something that worked well in the past but today it may just be causing more confusion.
I've had a couple of weeks of thinking I'd answered something about the high-end, but further reflection tells me my definition doesn't work. I'll have to keep contemplating this question.
What's the "High-End"?
This month I want to chat about an issue that has been bugging me for some time. What is a high-end property? You'll frequently see statistics, articles and analysis of the over One Million Dollar market, but with the average sales price of a single family home in the City of Boulder at $1.09M in 2017, does talking about the One Million Dollar market as something special or different make sense? After all in the City of Boulder today, a million dollar home sale just means that sale is average, not something special. I already had all of the data for Boulder County sales going back to 2002 that were reported to IRES, so after some spreadsheet formulas I was able to start zeroing in on what a high-end property means today.
Back in 2002, a million dollar home sale meant that home was one of the top 1.29% of the sales across all of Boulder County. As of the end of 2017, a million dollar home sale means that home was one of the top 10.26% of the sales in the County, not nearly the same cachet. To be in the top 1.29% of the sales in 2017, a home would have had to sell for $2.1M. I didn't take the time to break this data down into smaller market segments like individual cities, but looking at the overall County data, it felt to me like the top 3% of homes sales deserved the label of the high-end.
Some interesting things appear when I charted this data. The high-end reacts to market forces differently than the median and average price points, which makes sense. For most people, a home is a necessity, something that is purchased and held onto through good and bad market cycles. For high-end homes, we see the market downturns have a bigger effect as these homes usually aren't a necessity but a luxury.
Another interesting item in the data, the high end homes were up by 114% since 2002 while the average home was up 81% and the median home was up 89%. Some of this discrepancy may be due to Affordable Housing program homes that remain in the data, but this better appreciation rate for the high end of the market was a surprise. Another possible explanation is that the high-end of the market is a smaller market segment, in 2017, the top 3% of all sales was only 147 sales. One or two exceptionally high high-end sales could be skewing those numbers and in 2017, there was one sale for $13.1M, a 23 unit income property in downtown Boulder.
As with any statistics debate, these numbers are County averages and may differ for your area. Obviously a high-end sale in the City of Boulder means something very different than a high-end sale in Longmont. I may dig back into the data and try to pull out what the top 3% of sales are for the different cities for a future article. Hope everyone has a wonderful spring!
2017 Sales Price to List Price Ratios
Another article this month looking back at how 2017 played out compared to previous years. This month I want to take a look at sales price to list price ratios. This year, as in previous years, I've removed seller concessions from the sales prices, hopefully making these sales price to list price ratios as accurate as possible using IRES only data for Boulder County.
I first looked at the percent of the market that is selling for over asking price and how that metric is trending over time. In 2017, the percentage of both Single Family and Attached Homes selling for over asking price moderated and dropped from the 2016 levels. Just under 50% of Single Family Homes sold for over asking while Attached Homes saw just under 65% sell for over asking. This was a decline of 7-8 percentage points from the levels we saw in 2016. More importantly, this is the second year we've seen this metric decline for Attached Homes and both metrics are now declining likely indicating that we're entering a new downward trend pattern.
The second stat I wanted to revisit again was the sales price to asking price ratios and how those ratios change depending on how quickly the home goes under contract. As you would expect, the more quickly the home gets snatched up, the more likely the sales price was to be at or over the asking price, but we saw that trend moderating some in 2017. For Single Family Homes that went under contract during their first week on the market, just under 70% sold for at or over their asking price. This was a decline of about 6 percentage points from the levels we saw in 2016. We also saw about 6% fewer homes sell during their first week on the market and increases in the numbers of homes selling during the third week and on, another indicator of softening in these stats. The one quirk to this IRES data that I haven't been able to eliminate is the possible inclusion of properties that were withdrawn and then re-entered with a new MLS # and possible new asking price that then sell quickly even though they have a lengthy combined days on market.
|Single Family
|Week 1
|Week 2
|Week 3
|Week 4
|Week 5
|Week 6+
|% of all 3,391 Sales
|Asking or better
|<80% – 95%
|95% – 97%
|97% – 99%
|99% – 100%
|100% – 102%
|102% – 105%
In this graph, I've plotted, in separate colors, the Single Family home sales per the week they went under contract. The expected strength in the properties that went under contract in the first week is displayed in blue. As we saw in 2015 & 2016, those "under contract in the first week" properties had numerous sales that were at asking price through sales that were up to 10% over asking price. It's not until homes have been for sale into the third week that you start to see the peaks in the chart at something less than asking price. One other quirk in the data that I didn't attempt to adjust for was properties that went under contract, had a buyer back out and then re-entered the market.
If we look at these same stats for Attached Homes, you'll see that this market segment is also softening compared to last year but remains stronger than Single Family. Attached Homes that went under contract within the first week on the market sold for asking price or better 76.01% of the time, more than 10 percentage points lower than 2016. During 2016 more than half of the Attached homes went under contract in the first week and last year that number dropped about 5 percentage points to just under 47%. As we saw in 2016, there is far more strength for close to or at asking price sales in Attached Homes past the first week on the market than we see for Single Family Homes. For some reason about half of all Attached Homes sell for asking price or better after the first week except for those homes that go under contract in week 4. Hard to tease a reason for this out of the data, could be overall lower prices for Attached homes, odd price reduction effects, or more demand for that entry-level, affordable price point.
|Attached Homes
|Week 1
|Week 2
|Week 3
|Week 4
|Week 5
|Week 6+
|% of all 1,315 Sales
|Asking or better
|<80% – 95%
|95% – 97%
|97% – 99%
|99% – 100%
|100% – 102%
|102% – 105%
In the chart below, we take the same Attached Home data and display that date per the week in which the property went under contract. As in the Single Family graph, you see great strength in the properties that go under contract in the first week. Oddly, for Attached Homes, only in properties that go under contract in week 4 do we see the numbers peak at less than asking price.
Interestingly, all of these 2017 metrics show softening since 2016 and yet the subjective feel of the market so far in 2018 is a strengthening market with many properties that lagged on the 2017 market suddenly getting snatched up. Hard to tell which signal to trust as we move further into the year. Could be that the strength we're feeling is due to very small numbers of available homes and I can see that lack of available inventory continuing throughout the year. Could be that the softening may accelerate if mortgage rates continue to creep upwards. Only time will tell.
2017 Boulder County Market Recap
A new year and a new bunch of stats to sift through for meaning. It definitely seems as if the market is shifting, but some strong performance at the end of the year and a strong start in 2018 has me debating where we're headed. This year is also the first year without data share between IRES and REColorado and I'm sure that affected our numbers, but how and to what extent is very hard to tease out without massive data consolidation efforts. To keep that variable to a minimum and to match all previous years these stats are all IRES data only.
It has been a great time to be a seller since mid-year 2012 and 2017 was no exception. While we did see a shift in the market, sellers still remained in control for most price points. The higher the price point the less seller control we saw. Entry level markets saw sellers choosing amongst many, multiple, strong offers. At the highest price points, sellers were not as fortunate and were much more likely to experience a balanced market. We continue to see wobbles in our stats with different metrics telling different stories. What is confusing is that not only are the different metrics telling different stories but that the metrics themselves are flip-flopping back and forth in their indications. This is very different than what we saw during 2013-2015 when all arrows were pointed straight up.
Annual sales numbers saw modest growth, up 6.47% from 2016. Single family homes saw a slightly greater increase at 7.15% while attached homes were up 4.70%. This is one of our unusual metrics, as typically in a strong market like we've been experiencing, annual sales numbers increase strongly. This held true during the last strong market we had in the late 90's as you can see partially above. During this current strong market, our annual sales numbers have been bouncing up and down each year but holding generally in the area of 4,500 home sales.
Here is our current level of single family inventory, with 2018 levels setting a new all-time low. That is one of the interesting things about our market, strong price appreciation that isn't causing more sellers to put their homes on the market. I think this is due to two factors, one the aging of the Boulder County populace and two the lack of new home construction activity we have. According to the State demographer, Boulder County will see a 77% increase in the number of people 65+ in Boulder County between 2015 and 2030 and as a general rule, as people age, they move less. We are also almost done with large scale new home developments in Boulder County unless we dramatically change our land use policies. Without new homes being built in large quantities and with our growing population, you get a musical chairs situation. People don't want to put their home on the market for fear the music will stop and they won't be able to find their next home in the County. We'll be watching this chart this year to see if we again see larger inventory numbers mid-summer like we saw last year. I am becoming more convinced every year that the light red area in the chart above is the new-normal range for our inventory levels due to the two factors we discussed above. With lower inventory levels likely to be a somewhat permanent issue, I don't see home values dropping dramatically for the foreseeable future. High demand and low supply are always good for prices.
The next chart is one of the charts showing that the market is shifting. Overall percentages of properties under contract has been dropping since our peak in the summer of 2016. To me, this shows that the market is returning to a more balanced level but is still strong. The current downward trend doesn't concern me as an indicator of poor market, just a slowing market. Many of my fellow stats nerds feel that we see price appreciation for any market that is at least 25-30% under contract. If our current downward trend continues to the point that our under contract percentage is approaching that 25-30% level, then this would be concerning.
Another possible source of friction that could slow our market is rising interest rates. It seems like we've been expecting rising interest rates every year since we escaped the Great Recession and so far we've mostly called that wrong. As you can see in this next chart looking at 30 year mortgage interest rates over the last 5 years we're starting to see some upward movement. What we can't predict though is if this current upward movement will be permanent or another buildup in rates that slowly deflates again like we saw in July 2013, early 2015 and again in early 2017.
This is my one chart pulled from REColorado data showing the number of Boulder County sales recorded in REColorado over the last five years. The large jump in 2017 is indicative to me of the many IRES-only brokers forced to join and entering their Boulder County listings and sales into REColorado. I'm sure this has affected our stats as I'm sure there are also REColorado-only brokers who felt they had to join IRES to get their Boulder County listings in front of Boulder County brokers. My few attempts at downloading from both systems and trying to reconcile the two data sets has shown me that I don't have the time, energy or statistical chops to create charts incorporating every Boulder County sale. You also have other off-MLS sales adding to the complicated mix. Hopefully someday, we'll have a merged Front Range MLS system that includes historical data from IRES and REColorado, but until then, we'll keep plugging along with the data we have. Have an amazing 2018!
Q3 FHFA data shows changing Boulder Market
The latest FHFA Q3 data is out for Boulder County and it tells the story of a changing, cooling market. For the first time since the second quarter of 2012, the Boulder County MSA saw negative appreciation from one quarter to the next logging a negative .58% appreciation rate from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2017. This leaves Boulder as one of only 26 MSA's across the country to see negative appreciation when compared to the previous quarter.
Now, before everyone gets too concerned, do realize that the FHFA HPI data is constantly being revised and what shows up as a negative quarter today may well be adjusted back into positive territory with the next Q4 data release at the end of February 2018. While Boulder has fallen towards the bottom of the 253 MSA's when it comes to quarter to quarter appreciation, we still remain 57th for annual appreciation and number one for appreciation since 1991. This negatively appreciating quarterly number does show though that the market is changing. Here's the chart for annual appreciation rates.
Both Denver and Boulder show decelerating, yet still positive, annual appreciation rates in the chart. Interesting that Denver is decelerating less sharply than Boulder which is likely due to better affordability in the Denver MSA. Hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season.
Market continues to change
The shift in the market seems to be coming clearer as we move into the fall. Homes are taking longer to go under contract and inventory is building faster than sales. The shift is still patchy however in that certain areas and price points are still very active. I've even seen this patchiness within neighborhoods as some homes get scooped up quickly while others can linger on the market. Buyers are once again caring about finishes, upgrades and location when comparing homes. Homes with negative issues are starting to again be penalized by the market, just being for sale is no longer all it takes to move a home.
One of the metrics that is displaying a marked shift that caught my eye recently is the percent of homes under contract across all of Boulder County. This summer, this metric didn't rise above 50% under contract like the last two summers. It is also now displaying an under contract percentage that is below what we saw during any point in all of 2015 and 2016. A definite shift in the market.
To try and display data that backs up what I'm feeling in the market, I also plotted the number of homes available for sale that aren't under contract and the number of homes that are under contract for the same time period going back over the last 5 years. In the chart below you can see that the inventory of homes available for sale had been dropping for the previous four periods but this year has sharply reversed trend. The number of home under contract meanwhile has stayed fairly constant throughout. Homes Available increased almost 18% compared to last year while the number under contract grew only 3% during the same time period.
So, inventory is growing strongly while sales have only increased mildly. A big question though is this change in trend a seasonal pattern or indicative of a market shift. Since we're comparing these numbers for the same date going back over the last 5 years, I don't think we're seeing a seasonal pattern, but I'm not sure we'll be able to answer that until we see how spring of 2018 plays out. Enjoy the changing seasons!
Latest FHFA House Price Index Numbers are in!
The latest FHFA House Price Index data came out for the Second Quarter of 2017 and I thought I'd spend some time on those stats. You'll see in the chart below that Boulder County MSA, the metro Denver MSA and the State of Colorado are all off their peaks in appreciation as our current cycle shows some weakness. Overall, the US is still showing increasing appreciation.
The Boulder MSA remains very strong compared to the other 354 MSA's across the Country. Boulder ranks 1st for appreciation since 1991. Interestingly, Denver is 2nd and Ft. Collins is 6th. When looking at 5 year appreciation, Boulder ranks 31st, Denver is 22nd and Ft. Collins is 36th. For one year appreciation, Boulder ranks 20th, Denver is 17th and Ft. Collins is 10th. One quarter appreciation, has Boulder ranking 85th, Denver is 48th and Ft. Collins is 67th. The Denver Metro MSA is comprised of the City & County of Denver, the City & County of Broomfield, Jefferson County, Gilpin County, Clear Creek County, Park County, Douglas County, Elbert County, Arapahoe County and Adams County. In many of these rankings the Denver metro MSA is out stripping the Boulder County MSA and I think this is due to the generally lower price points in the Denver Metro MSA. They have more room for the frenzied appreciation we're seeing occur on the lower end. Below is a chart from the FHFA website showing those appreciation numbers for the three MSA's.
Great new metric???
Sometimes I have a great idea for a new statistical chart after a conversation with a colleague. After a conversation with John Hampshire at my office, I decided to see if I could chart the Sales Price to List Price ratio for real estate sales in Boulder County over the last 6 years. The expectation is that during the spring when the market is most frenzied, that this ratio would show a much higher percentage that would gradually decrease throughout the year to the slowest time in the late Fall. This chart could then be used to show sellers the best time to get the highest price and buyers the best time to get the best deal.
Like many great ideas, this idea didn't survive first contact with reality. I was able to pull the data without too much effort but that was the last easy step. A quick look showed SP/LP ratios that ranged from 19.79% to 559%, not what I expected. A quick look at some of the outliers to figure out my next action. The 19.79% sale was for a single family home that went under contract pre 2013 flood but closed as a piece of vacant land post 2013 flood. Many of the other very low ratio sales were for small mountain acreages that took multiple years to sell. First massage of the data, take out all of the Vacant Land sales.
Next, moving to the opposite end of the spectrum, how did something sell for five and a half times the asking price? Some more research determined this was a vacant land parcel that was sold in conjunction with the $2M+ dollar home next door and the combined price was reported for both the home and the vacant land. Where do you stop though? I can't comb through 27,949 sales in my dataset and make corrections to each one. Also, some New Construction Homes really do sell for almost 200% over asking once you add in options, lot premiums, appliance packages, etc. A couple more massages to the data to correct the most egregious outliers but most get left in.
Next dilemma, what timescale do I use? Charting the sales by actual date seems like it would give too much movement. Charting by month seems like too little movement. I finally ended on Week #'s of the year, weeks 1 through 52. Still some issues with this approach too. Week 1 of 2016 didn't contain a single business day, so no sales possible that week but still seemed to be the best approach.
Next dilemma, do I use the Sold date or the date the property went Under Contract. Contract date would more accurately reflect the market strength or weakness at the time the contract was negotiated, let's go with that. "Shoot" (or something unprintable) Contract date isn't a data field I can download out of IRES, Sold date it is. Sold date however is probably offset 30-60 days from contract date and the market conditions that existed then. I decided not to try and chase down that source of noise in the data.
So, after all of that, below is what my efforts came to, a metric that doesn't really tell you anything. There isn't a clear pattern to the SP/LP ratio throughout a year. Too many spikes and drops from outlier data. No clear trends in the shapes of each year. Only clear trend I can see is that the most recent years have had a higher SP/LP ratio than the years closer to the Great Recession. A shocking new insight to everyone I'm sure. I guess the lack of a clear pattern is an insight in some ways. There isn't a consistent pattern to our market where a certain time will always produce a better or worse SP/LP ratio than another time. There will always be some sellers and some buyers more flexible than others.
Luckily not all was lost. For those of you who have ever downloaded large numbers of sales out of IRES, you know that there is a maximum cap of 2,000 records that can be exported at any one time. Since every year 2011-2016 has had more sales than this limit, I had to break my exports out into less than 2,000 sale chunks. The easiest way I have found to do this is by sales price. First chunk 0-250K sales, second chunk 250K-550K sales, etc. What became apparent as I made these downloads was that these chunks were changing dramatically over the years. This isn't a dramatic insight, we all know our prices have been appreciating, but I was really struck by how we have lost the entry level of our market.
This insight was much easier to translate into a chart (next page). Each year on a 3D graph showing the sub-400K market in Boulder County for both attached and detached sales. You can clearly see the market shifting to the right towards higher sales prices. 2011 at the back of the chart to 2016 at the front of the chart. A stark visual reminder of how our market is evaporating for entry level buyers.
Hope everyone has a great August!
% Under Contract Showing Changes.
Many of the brokers that I chat with about stats are commenting on how they feel a change taking place in the market. This change isn't uniform across Boulder County yet, but I suspect by the end of this year, we'll all agree the days of instant offers and annual appreciation in the teens will have ended.
So aside from gut feel, what stats are starting to show a change? One of the ones I keep an eye on is the percent of single family homes in each area that is under contract. You can see in the chart below that we have rounded over the top in this metric. While there was a small drop from 2013 to 2014 that ended up not signaling a change, the drop so far from 2016 to 2017 seems significant enough to signal a change. We'll eventually have further data to confirm this change and then get an idea for the slope of the change. Once we have a confirmed shape to the new direction, we can call when we break out of the new trend at some point in the future.
I maintain these same stats for each sub-area in the County. That chart is more interesting in that you can watch the individual cities move up and down as compared to the other cities in the County. I have been tracking these stats since 2004 and a very interesting change has occurred since then. Back then, the City of Boulder was always a top performer in this chart, frequently having the highest percentage of homes under contract in the County. Since the Great Recession however, the City of Boulder has been towards the bottom of the chart and lately has been tracking below the County average. Longmont and Erie back then were usually at the bottom of the chart but recently they've been trending much higher. I think this change is a reflection of affordability. As prices within the City of Boulder have climbed dramatically, the relatively lower prices further out in the County have driven demand outside of the City. One other observation, the Suburban Plains have been a perennial underperformer compared to the other areas within the County.
We'll be keeping an eye on this chart as the market potentially shifts. Dramatic changes in the positioning of the competing subareas will give us some insight to what's happening and how big a factor affordability is playing.
Hope everyone had a wonderful Fourth of July!
Inventory starting to climb?
One of the signs I've been watching for that could indicate our market is changing is an increase in available inventory. As you can see in the chart below, we're starting to see that increase. 2017 is the first year in which we have not set new lows in the number of homes available for sale across Boulder County.
A definite change in the market, but determining the significance is more challenging. If the number of homes available for sale peaks and then drops back into the range of 2015 & 2016, I think we can say this was a temporary quirk of the market this year. If instead we see the # available continue to climb throughout the year that would be more troubling. If we see the # available leave the red zone and start transitioning back towards the blue zone of the years 2005 through 2011 that would be even more concerning for continued price appreciation. It is also hard to tell if this increase is due to larger numbers of sellers or fewer numbers of buyers snatching properties off the market. More sellers would be better for the health of the market than fewer buyers.
There are some long term trends occurring within Boulder County however that make comparisons to previous years more difficult. We may have transitioned to an era where we may not get back up to those higher inventory levels. Generally higher interest rates, lack of substantial new construction, continued population growth, and very low unemployment may all combine to create a market where we won't again see the high levels of inventory we saw from 2005-2011 as people are more likely to stay in their homes. If this is true and the red zone is our new normal, than a move back to the top of that area may be concerning enough. This is one I'll be watching throughout the summer.


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One of the greatest actors of his generation, Montgomery Clift – beautiful and broken, the mould of the leading actor would never look the same again:
Before James Dean and (just) before Brando hit the screens, Monty was already smoldering away at the edges of conventional depictions of masculinity with his deeply affecting portrayals delivered in a style of quiet intensity that would visibly shake him and bring out beads of sweat from both his and the viewers brow… (see the scene in A Place in the Sun where the effort, the painful, painful effort of kissing Elizabeth Taylor makes for visible perspiration):
After a horrific car crash (leaving a party at Elizabeth Taylor's house) that left him disfigured, Monty became increasingly dependent on alcohol and prescription drugs – a condition that spelled ruin for his career when, in 1962, a disgruntled John Huston effectively ended Clift's career after his unreliable on-set behaviour became too much for Huston to bear. Following Huston's Freud, Monty never found an insurance company that would be willing to cover him for a film again. He died in 1966, aged just 45.
A Place In The Sun (1951) – directed by George Stevens (East of Eden, Shane), co-starring Elizabeth Taylor and Shelly Winters (Lolita). Clift was nominated for an Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role.
Confessions of an American Wife (1953) – directed by Vittorio de Sica (Bicycle Thieves), co-starring Jennifer Jones (Duel in the Sun).
From Here To Eternity (1953) – directed by Fred Zinnemann (High Noon), co-starring Burt Lancaster, Deborah Kerr but Frank Sinatra. Clift was nominated for an Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role.
Suddenly Last Summer (1959) – directed by Joseph L. Mankiewicz (All About Eve, Guys and Dolls), co-starring Elizabeth Taylor and Katherine Hepburn. Based on the play by Tennessee Williams.
The Misfits (1961) – directed by John Huston, co-starring Marilyn Monroe, Clark Gable and Thelma Ritter. This was to be both Marilyn and Clark Gable's final film.
Judgement at Nuremberg (1961) – directed by Stanley Kramer (Inherit the Wind, Defiant Ones) – co-starring Burt Lancaster, Judy Garland, Spencer Tracy, Richard Widmark and Maximilian Schell. Clift was nominated for an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.
Freud (1962) – directed by John Huston. This was to be Clift's last film in America – he made only one film after this, before dying in 1966, black-listed by Huston; unable to find an insurance company willing to cover him.


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RA Nature Protection Ministry of Armenia has given a laconic answer to the proposals of the civil society concerned with the environmental problems in Armenia, which have been directed to the Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan. The representatives of the civil society were expecting that their proposals would be included in the new program of the Armenian Government.
In this regard, RA Nature Protection Ministry informs, 'In reply to your letter addressed to the Prime Minister on 18 May 2018, we would like to advise you that the new program of the government, where the development directions and objective have been presented in general provisions, was approved at the cabinet meeting on 1 June 2018.
At the same time, valuing the importance of the problems raised by you, which have always been and will be in the focus of the ministry, relevant measures will be taken to include their solution options in the action plan.'
It should be mentioned that the proposals referred to the mines, forests, Lake Sevan, ANPP, SHPPS, Ararat Valley etc.
June 12, 2018 at 16:08


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The Federal University of Technology, Akure, through its students in different Departments has again taken the lead among its peers by winning prizes in various competitions nationally.
A group of four students that represented FUTA in the Nigerian Universities Mathematics competition held in Abuja and emerged overall best with 1 Gold, 2 Silver and 1 Bronze medal were at the Vice-Chancellor's Office for the official presentation of their medals. The competition which recorded the participation of 60 Institutions with FUTA also producing the best Undergraduate student mathematician in Nigeria is organized annually by the National Mathematical Centre.
The following students represented FUTA at the National University Mathematics Competition:
- Omojola Michael Temitope Gold Medal Overall best
- Akinmade Mary Oluwabunmi Silver Medal Overall best female Mathematician
- Ofe Seun Victor Silver Medal
- Dike Desmond Ifeanyi Bronze Medal
The team was coached by the duo of Dr Babatope Omolofe and Mr. Ayodeji Afolabi. The head of department of Mathematics, Professor Sunday Kayode and his predecessor Professor Felix Alao led the winning team to the Vice Chancellor's office.
Okegbemi Olusoji Festus is an Editor/Creative writer at campustori.com, A digital media Executive and a known Social Media Enthusiast.


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Media Notice: Episcopal Church Executive Council Meets in February
The Executive Council of The Episcopal Church will meet February 19 February 22 at the Hilton in Omaha, Nebraska. Media representatives wishing to attend the meeting must secure credentials. Contact Neva Rae Fox at email@example.com.
A media conference with phone access for media not able to attend is planned for February 22 at the conclusion of Executive Council (time TBD). Pre-registration for media is required; contact Neva Rae Fox at email@example.com
Executive Council
According to the website: "The Executive Council of the Episcopal Church is an elected body representing the whole Church. In the course of the three years between convention, known as the "triennium", the Executive Council will customarily meet once in each of the nine provinces of the Episcopal Church. The Executive Council has the duty to carry out programs and policies adopted by General Convention. It is the job of Executive Council to oversee the ministry and mission of the Church. The Executive Council is comprised of twenty members elected by General Convention (four bishops, four priests or deacons and twelve laypersons) and eighteen members elected by provincial synods."
Episcopal Church Presiding Bishop Katharine Jefferts Schori chairs Executive Council; President of the House of Deputies Bonnie Anderson is vice chair; the Rev. Canon Dr. Gregory Straub is secretary.
Members and their dioceses are:
The Rt. Rev. David Alvarez, Puerto Rico; the Rev. Cn. Timothy Anderson, Nebraska; Hisako Beasley, Olympia; Sarah Dylan Breuer, Massachusetts; the Rt. Rev. J. Jon Bruno, Los Angeles; Stephanie Cheney, West Tennessee; the Rev. Brian Cole, Western North Carolina; Jane Cosby, Pennsylvania; the Rev. Dr. Lee Crawford, Vermont; the Rev. Dr. Ian Douglas, Massachusetts; Blanca Echeverry, Colombia; Scott Evenbeck, Indianapolis; the Rev. Floyd Gamarra, Los Angeles; Martha Gardner, Newark; E. Bruce Garner, Atlanta; Dr. Anita George, Mississippi; the Rt. Rev. Wendell Gibbs, Michigan; Dr. Delbert Glover, Western Massachusetts; the Ven. Joyce Hardy, Arkansas; Canon Bettye Jo Harris, Hawaii; the Rev. Cn. Mark Harris, Delaware; Angela Helt, Oklahoma; the Rt. Rev. Mark Hollingsworth, Ohio; Stephen Hutchinson, Utah; the Rev. Gay Clark Jennings, Ohio; Bryan Krislock, Olympia; Lelanda Lee, Colorado; the Rev. Cristobal Leon Lozano, Litoral Ecuador; Vycke McEwen, Oklahoma; Francisco Quinones, Puerto Rico; the Rev. Silvestre Romero, El Camino Real; Katie Sherrod, Fort Worth; Canon Rosalie Simmonds Ballentine, Virgin Islands; the Rev. Deacon Terry L. Star, North Dakota; Deborah Stokes, Southern Ohio; the Rev. Winnie Varghese, New York; Anne Watkins, Connecticut; the Rev. Canon Sandye Wilson, Newark.
The Episcopal Church welcomes all who worship Jesus Christ in 109 dioceses and three regional areas in 16 nations. The Episcopal Church is a member province of the worldwide Anglican Communion.
The Episcopal Church: www.episcopalchurch.org
Executive Council: http://generalconvention.org/ec
IamEpiscopalian: http://www.iamepiscopalian.org/
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/episcopalian
Twitter: http://twitter.com/iamepiscopalian
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/TECtube


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Who can join?
The club is open to all MBA alumni who were involved in any production of The Wharton Follies as well as any current Follies production participants. This "population" includes, but is not limited to, cast, crew, orchestra, writers, production staff, and business staff. If you were ever listed in a program as having helped with a Follies production, you are automatically a member!


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Crossroads Plaza located in Plainfield, IL at the corner of Caton Farm Road and Countyline Road welcomes Anytime Fitness. Kristian Lee and Donna Ballentine of Suburban Real Estate Services, Inc. representing ownership of the plaza secured the lease with Anytime Fitness opening in Suites 7166 & 7168.
Anytime Fitness offers a friendly, professional staff trained to get its clients to a healthier place. They support your fitness journey no matter the fitness level. Anytime Fitness is a welcoming club and has a supportive member community. Every member gets a free fitness consultation and access to any of the 3,000 gym locations.
To find out more about this brand new location for Anytime Fitness and early enrollment check out their Facebook page today.
If you are interested in leasing space with Anytime Fitness, Subway, McBride's and Westfield Restaurant please contact Suburban Real Estate Services, Inc.
Kristian Lee


text: "Christine was a pleasure to work with. Her rapid actions and proficient knowledge gave us the competitive edge against other buyers and sellers. She used her professional demeanor to engage us with proper realtor advice. Her use of modern real estate amenities made it very convenient for us to make decisions and complete documents from the comfort of our own home. I would highly recommend her professionalism and the completeness of getting the job done. – We are Gerry and Robyn Eisele and we sold and bought our house in under and month with the help of Christine Mastis."


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Welcoming In The New Year
Quick and obvious entry that I needed to make, but wishing everyone and all a wonderful New Year. Happy 2015. It's been almost a year now that we've been at it here at A Cake And Wine and we're super excited to see what this new year brings. We hope that everyone had a safe and happy New Years Eve with their friends and loved ones. We'll be back shortly with more for our site. We're going to be off topic for a few days as we celebrate some New Years festivities / entries / posts.


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Construction is moving along on the Yonge + Rich Condos at 25 Richmond St. E. in Toronto.
Great Gulf Homes is the owner and the construction manager is Tucker HiRise Construction. The project includes a 45-storey tower with 669 units, a four-storey heritage building that will be restored, retail space and four levels of underground parking. The project will also have a fitness facility, yoga studio, media room, rooftop pool with barbecue and lounge area. The architect for the project is architectsAlliance. Consultants are: Adjeleian Allen Rubeli Ltd. (structural); Smith + Andersen Ltd. (mechanical/electrical); Burdifilek (interior design); and DTAH (landscape). Subtrades include Michael Bros. Excavating and Deep Foundations Contractors Inc.


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Description : I just want to hear what you make.....
This loop is suffering from a lack of comments !
If you have time take a listen and give sleezebuck some feedback.
Description : Please dont forget to mention if you upload me.
You dont have to but i would appreciate :).
Show me what you did ! :)
Description : Something special put together.
Description : Like Michael said, "it doesn't matter if you're black or white." Enjoy! 18 Trap Loops in this Series! Perfect for Dubstep melodies as well! 100% Royalty free for your commercial tracks and personal tracks. Have Fun!
Description : A powerful deep loop I put together and decided to upload. I want to hear some bangers made with this loop, so send links of what you create. Contact me if you want the midi and key is A.
[9 . 9 ]
Description : nice chords with reverse and filter with reverb
Description : Great dark loop I created, show me what you create with this. I am hosting a beat contest with this loop, more info in my forum section of my Looperman account.
[(- )__(-) ]
Description : MY PREMIUM SERIES TRAP VOL2! I HAVE BEEN APPROACHED BY LOOP ORGANIZATIONS MANY TIMES TO SIGN UP WITH THEM AND PRODUCE LOOPS FOR THEM. I HAVE TURNED THEM ALL DOWN. I got my personal reasons why I turned them down.
Everything that I have put out from today all the way to my first loop is Royalty Free and Copyright Free and will remain that way. Even if I do take a contract Everything that I have done on Looperman.com will ALWAYS remain free.
Description : Rock this joint!
Description : Synth Loop in A - MINOR; Hope you find this useful. If you use one of my loops in your song, I'd love to hear it. More INFO on my PROFILE PAGE! Contact me only via facebook please! Thanks
Description : japanese sounding koto / Shamisen
click on my profile picture the midi file or if you want to have custom loops
Description : This is a melody I made a while ago with Nexus. If you use it, please comment with a link to your song. Thanks!
Description : This sounds alot like something you'd hear in Nu Disco or maybe trance :P lol enjoy!! :)
Description : PREMIUM SERIES! What make this small collection of loops premium? Because they are pre-mastered by me. I used some serious compression to get more sound without driving it in to clipping. EQ'd and Dynamic filter enhancement also applied.
Description : Asian melody
Description : Made using FL Studios Autogun. Id love to share the presets, but FL went and changed them all or something and now they don't work properly, but they still produce the same sound. Theres two layered here, one is quite sharp and bell like, the other is the soft choir backing.


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From Motorola Dynatac to Apple iPhone 10 plus: responses on the use of mobile telephony technology from a University community
Adu-Gyamfi, Samuel
MetadataShow full item record
The study focuses on the evolution of telecommunication in Ghana and examines the social, economic, religious and academic impacts that mobile phones have on the Ghanaian society and Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) in particular. It adopted a qualitative approach. Data was collected using questionnaires and interviews. Simple random sampling and convenience sampling were both employed in the selection of participants for the study. The results show that most phone users prefer to use their phones to make voice calls than to send text messages. Observations and responses from the respondents showed that students and general users of smart phones had easy access to information. The use of smart phones had positive and adverse impact on some of the people within the university community and on the studies of students in particular.
- Straipsniai / Articles [5271]


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Road Racing is massed-start cycle racing on roads or circuits (criterium races).
The first rider over the finish line wins, with anything from a few to almost 200 competitors, depending on the event. In the UK, events range from short Youth and Juvenile (under16) races of 50km or less, through club level events for adults of between 40km and 100km, to Elite-level one day races of 200km or more.
The majority of adult racing takes place on public roads, though there are a number of circuit events in the North West, either on roads closed to other traffic or on specially constructed circuits such as at Preston Arena and the Salt Ayre circuit at Lancaster.
Youth Road Racing:
All under-16 racing takes place on traffic-free closed circuits.
Youth riders in the 16 and under age categories are not permitted to race on the open road under British Cycling rules, this is for safety.
Cycle Sport Pendle prepares young riders to compete safely in closed circuit racing at regional and national events.
Road Races:
The classic Road Race is a test of stamina, fitness and tactical acumen.
Team tactics often come into play. Riders often have particular strengths: some can climb hills and mountains very quickly; others have a devastating turn of speed or sprint; other have the ability to ride very well against the clock in Time Trials (which often form part of multi day or stage races).
The art is to restrict your rival's gains in the areas where they are strong and maximise your gains in your preferred terrain.
There are a number of road races in the local area, supported by our local cycling clubs.
Stage Races:
Some Road Races are contested over several days and several stages.
These "Stage" Races or Tours often feature prizes for each stage winner, plus others for the best sprinter in the race, the best climber (aka King of the Mountains), the leading team and, of course, the overall winner, who is the rider with the best aggregate time.
The Tour de France is the world's most prestigious Stage Race and lasts for three weeks.
There are a a number of youth stage races each year in the UK, two of which are fairly local: the Isle of Man and at Blackpool.
Racing Qualities:
All top Road Racers need to be able to stay in the saddle for hours at a time (endurance). Some are exceptionally good at going uphill and target wins in hilly terrain: these are known as Climbers. Others have a big 'kick' or ability to accelerate and are known as Sprinters.
They often win races where the finish is contested by a number of riders – a bunch or sprint finish. Few riders can win, however, if they are not tactically very aware and at pro level team tactics and strategy can be very complex.
Tactical Considerations:
Endurance, Sprinting, Climbing, Tactics – these are just some of the qualities a successful road rider might possess.
Which is the most important? Well, it's open to debate, but compared to the sledgehammer tactic of just trying to ride faster than your rivals – something which will not work at anything but the lowest level of the sport – the rapier blade of genuine tactical nous is potentially a race winner for you.


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A Florida appellate court Friday set aside two charges of lying to detectives, agreeing with Anthony's attorneys that two of the charges constituted double jeopardy, being convicted/punished twice for the same crime.
Casey Anthony's whereabouts have been kept secret since she was released from state supervision following a year of probation last year. She had served jail time in an unrelated case.
Jeff Ashton, one of the prosecutors who tried Anthony and who was recently elected State Attorney in the Orlando area, said in a statement that he expected the case would be considered closed once the trial court drops the two counts.
Jurors determined that Anthony lied when she told detectives that she worked at Universal Studios, that she had left Caylee with a babysitter who kidnapped the girl, that she had told two friends about her daughter's disappearance and that she had received a phone call from Caylee.
The appeals judges ruled that the trial court was correct to allow Anthony's statements to detectives to be used during her murder trial. Anthony's attorneys had argued that she was in police custody at the time and hadn't been read her Miranda rights. They also had argued that Anthony should have been convicted of only a single count of lying because of the double jeopardy concern.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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These Dobermans Checks picture four rotating images of these majestic canines laying about in the fields or bounding of to fetch a ball, capturing their power and beauty with every shot.
Plus, you'll find that these checks are consistently offered at an affordable, low price - regardless if you are reordering or placing an order for the first time. Most designs also come with matching address labels!
EZShield Check Fraud Protection
Guard your personal checks from unauthorized use of up to $25,000 for only .
Personal Check Box
10 Masks


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Turkey has always held an allure as a holiday destination for countless Irish holidaymakers, and it's not hard to see why. The country is a paradise, with miles upon miles of golden sandy beaches and a friendly and welcoming people that make every stay a memorable one. Getting to Turkey from Ireland used to be quite a slog, but with lots of companies vying for your coin, there's never been a better time to book flights to Turkey from Ireland.
Unfortunately, your options for booking direct flights are limited to a small number of mostly charter carriers. The likes of Aer Lingus and Ryanair just don't fly into Turkey, despite the massive demand from Irish holidaymakers. This doesn't mean there aren't bargains to be found though!
Right now, Sunworld Holidays are running a phenomenal offer on flights to Turkish airports at Izmir, Antalya and Bodrum. The company is currently offering return flights to these destinations for a bargain €196.00 per adult with Onur Air. This offer is perfect for families that own properties in Turkey, as you don't have to bundle accomodation in with these flights, unlike most flights offered to the region by charter carriers.
If you're looking for a little more flexibility with your flights, then have you considered transferring through London or Frankfurt before going onwards to Turkey? Due to the large Turkish populations in both of these countries, they are both extremely well serviced in terms of flights to Turkey, and the cost of these flights.
To give an example, Skyscanner.ie can hook you up with peak summer flights to Izmir, through Frankfurt, for a bargain price of 210 Euro. So it's possible to get bargain flights to Turkey from Ireland, you just need to know where to look!
- Source:
- Flickr


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Required Reading & Reference
Just like in school or college you had "Required Reading" here we have Required Reference. Some of this is printed material to read, some is something you have to watch, but it is ALL required if you want to know anything with a firm point of reference. The best part is that its all free or costs practically nothing. Where else can you get a great education and speak with great knowledge for free or next to nothing? Right here…
- Foodimentary: Celebrating 365 Food Holidays with Classic Recipes
- Good Eats by Alton Brown
- Grocery by Michael Ruhlman
- Sour Grapes on Netflix
- Vintage Spirits & Forgotten Cocktails
- Proof: The Science of Booze
- Gentleman Bootleggers
- But Always Fine Bourbon
This will be updated as often as needed… great new reference are always becoming available.


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Princeton University and John Witherspoon video
Written by Joshua Horn on Thursday, October 18, 2012
We are about to release our video series Discerning History: Causes of the Civil War. In conjunction with that we are starting up something new - a series of weekly free video shorts posted on our youtube page. Last week's video was on Princeton University, its founding and how it has changed today. If you enjoyed it, subscribe to our channel on youtube.
Check back tomorrow for another video!
Written by Joshua Horn. Labels: video .


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Cops say they have caught the man wanted for groping girls and women in Brooklyn laundromats.
According to police, cops arrested Bay Shore resident Lowell Britt, 27, and charged him with persistent sexual abuse and public lewdness.
Metro's original story is below:
Police are searching for a man who forcibly touched five female victims, some as young as 14 years old, inside laundromats in the Bushwick and Canarsie neighborhoods of Brooklyn.
In each of the incidents, the man enters the laundromat, exposes himself and rubs himself against the unsuspecting victim, police said. The suspect targeted a 14-year-old and a 16-year-old on March 18. About an hour later, he targeted another 14-year-old girl.
About 9 a.m. on March 30, the man targeted a 43-year-old woman. He then approached a 32-year-old woman just 20 minutes later.
The suspect is described as a black male, between 5-foot-9 and 6-foot-2 and weighing about 200 lbs.
Anyone with information regarding this incident is asked to call Crime Stoppers at 1-800-577-TIPS (8477). The public can also submit tips by logging onto the Crime Stoppers website at www.nypdcrimestoppers.com or by texting their tips to 274637 (CRIMES) then enter TIP577.


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Happy Black Friday! This post is going to be short and sweet, and just a recap of all the emails I've got into my email box this morning:
NYX cosmetics:
Get 3 Plush Gel Lipsticks for free when you spend £25 online between today 24th and Monday 27th. Use code GETCOLOURFUL at the checkout.
To be honest, it's super easy to place an order for £25, and you get quite a deal!
You get 30% off everything, and some of the goodies are even half-priced! Shop Jeffrey Star, Morphe, Ofra, Makeup Geek, and Juvia's palettes.
I tried to enter the website yesterday and there were about 100k people in front of me in the queue and I had to wait 3 hours just to have a look 😀 Most of the items I wanted were already out of stock, so be quick!
If you've been thinking about getting self-hosted, now is the time! Siteground is now offering 70% off – plans with prices starting at £2 per month, you simply can't miss that! The promotion is valid from 24th to Monday 27th.
Quiz Clothing:
Up to 70% on selected items.
Basically all of the big retailers have a lot of promotions going on. Just keep an eye on the items you really want, set a budget and plan ahead, and be careful with the terms and conditions of everything you buy.
Have you made any Black Friday purchases?
Disclaimer: I'm not obliged (or sponsored) to mention any of those promotions on my blog. I have one affiliate link, and you won't pay more if you purchase a plan through it, but your click will help me earn a small commission.


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Cmd+R on a mac!
Minor correction: OCC is a geometric kernel, not a graphics kernel. Graphics is managed by the Coin3D library.
None that would have an open source license. I don't count CGAL (used in OpenSCAD) as a geometric kernel; it's more of a mathematics algorithms library, missing too much stuff essential in the CAD world (like fillets and chamfers! Loft! Sweep! STEP and IGES import/export! and on and on).
Assuming another open source kernel would suddenly become available: GIGANTIC. FreeCAD is intricately linked to OCC. I used to read CAD blogs (most of them are closed down now), and there was this gentleman who was the lead developer for Solid Edge for almost 20 years and he was often providing information in comments. In the early years they switched their geometric kernel from ACIS to Parasolid. If I'm not mistaken this may have required thousands of man-hours.
Again with SolidCAD, could you please post a link, I'm curious. I searched again, and the only reference to SolidCAD I can find is not software, it's an Autodesk vendor.
Could you please edit your post and place the script inside code brackets? It would make your reply easier to read, and the code easier to copy.


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For my latest creation I decided to call it 'Sea Breeze'
The reason I called it Sea Breeze is the colours of the beautiful fabric and trims I used to create it. It all started with a scarf I bought which is the crinkle fabric I used for the overlay of the skirt part of the dress. The fabric reminded me of gentle breezes walking along the beach on a beautiful summers day.
Made to fit American Girl dolls & Australian Girl dolls
I have to admit I'm really happy with how this whole outfit turned out… it's exactly what I had envisioned in my mind when I first picked up and bought that gorgeous scarf.
I not only made the dress but I also made the belt which can be worn as a headband and I made the little necklace too.
This is probably my favourite photo of this dress which I took down on the waterfront at Port Hedland as the sun was setting. My model is Julie my American Girl doll.
To me she looks like she's the goddess of the ocean in this photo.
What do you think?
One of my friends on Facebook said this picture looks like it should be on the cover of a book… well I have to admit that made me smile and to be honest made me feel quite proud.
Practicing my photography skills
I've been trying improve on my photography skills a bit so as I can take better photos and although I still have sooooo much to learn I think I'm getting a bit better at it. I have a Canon DSL that"s actually meant to be my hubby's camera but I figure I might as well use it as he's almost always at work anyways LOL. The rules in my house are… What's his is mine and what's mine is mine' and they've always been that way hahaha
Going Public…
This photo shoot was actually the very first time I've ever taken my dolls out in public. I did have a bit of an audience at one stage but I decided what the heck just do it and forget there's even anyone else there. Some people probably thought I was nuts but hey… I can't be the only nutter out there can I?
Here's a few more photos I took
This one is of my doll Australian Girl doll Belle (Annabelle). I even put my old hairdressing skills to work and styled her hair for this photo shoot.
With all these skills I'm using does that mean I can say I'm a…
Fashion Designer, Jeweller, Photographer, Hairdresser, and Fashion Stylist?
The rate I'm going I'll end up with letters after my name… having a giggle at that one 😀
I can't tell you the number of compliments I've had about this outfit from friends, followers and members of a couple of Facebook groups I'm in.
This one is another one of my favourite photos and it's great for showing the details in the straps I made and the belt buckle I used and the little necklace I made to match. This photo I took in our little back yard the day before we headed off to the beach.
This one give you an even better close up view
So there you go that's my latest creation 'Sea Breeze'
I've listed here in my Etsy shop but I'm not sure how I'm going to part with it though but at least I will always have the wonderful memories of making it and the fun I had doing my first photo shoot with my dolls out in public.
If you're on Facebook you'll find my new Facebook page Chris Lucas Designs here come and join me as I'm currently hosting a giveaway over there and you can choose between 2 different outfits that I'll be drawing on the 30th June. I blogged about my Giveaway here if you'd like to find out more and to see what you could win 🙂


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As you probably saw in Sunday's blog post, my newest craft addiction is cross stitch. I initially started is as part of my uni project, but I think I'm going to continue with it. It's been a much more relaxing way to stay occupied on long tube journeys than playing angry birds and pet rescue saga!
Besides a few little cacti, this Rainbow Pinata is the first proper cross stitch project I've done in years. It's inspired by my Mexican Project and the adorable Adventure Time pinata Manfried.
Here's the pattern for anyone wanting to stitch this!


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Several issues ago, I told you about Stein Music's Harmonizer H2 room treatments—little black cubes with battery-powered crystal circuits inside them, which emit an electromagnetic signal that reduces ambient noise and broadens and deepens the soundstage, better disappearing your loudspeakers. According to the H2's inventor, Holger Stein, this disappearing act is the result of a physical change in the distribution of air molecules in your listening room. How a set of vibrating crystals could bring about such a change—and why that change would result in a seeming expansion of the soundspace, as if the walls of your listening room had been pushed back several feet—is a mystery that even this old mystery writer can't fathom. And yet…the thing works.
Comes now another room treatment from Ted Denney, head honcho of Synergistic Research, which effects an even more dramatic lowering of the noise floor and expansion of your listening space, with concomitant changes in ambient acoustics, soundstage/image size and focus, spectral balance, and transient response. Those of you who have attended hi-fi shows across the country—from Newport Beach to New York City—may have already witnessed a demo of Denney's Atmosphere/UEF Panel and UEF Acoustic Dot system. For those of you who haven't, here's what the system comprises and how it is said to work.
The Atmosphere XL4 (the latest Atmosphere with "8 times the power" of the original Atmosphere XL) is a cubical pillar containing electronics, activated by a USB bus, that generate a "two-channel, multiwave" RF signal. This RF signal is said to be "modeled and shaped" to counteract the ambient "man-made and solar" RF that Denney contends degrades the sound of every hi-fi system, particularly during daylight hours—i.e., when the sun is shining. Denney's reflections on the role that solar disturbances play in creating higher ambient RF are just about as persuasive as Stein's explanation of how his crystal-filled cubes create denser air in your listening room; nonetheless, like the Stein Harmonizer H2, the Atmosphere is audibly doing something that not only lowers ambient noise but also changes the tonal balance and dispersion pattern of loudspeakers and the sonic signature of the room they are playing in.
Sitting on top of the Atmosphere XL4 is a small cylindrical object called an Atmosphere Tuning Module (ATM). There are two different kinds of ATMs included with the XL4—named "Red" and "Green," after the color of their bottom plates. The modules rest, unattached, in a circular indentation on the upper surface of the XL4 pillar, and can be interchanged at will.
I have absolutely no idea what is inside either of these devices, or how they work with the active electronics in the pillar. What I do know, and what everyone who has heard them in my room or at shows knows, is that when the Atmosphere XL4 and the ATMs are linked via a free Synergistic Research iPad app to one of six sonic "base scene" programs ("Intimate Acoustic," "Holographic," "Grand Canyon," "Amplified," "Ethereal," and "Expansive"—the first three for use with the Green ATM, the second three with the Red ATM), the character of your loudspeaker—its tonal balance, resolution, image focus, soundstage breadth and width and height, transient sharpness, bass definition and impact, etc.—changes, as do the acoustics of your room. What is equally startling—and a little appalling from an observational, much less a scientific point of view—is that these sonic changes are exactly the ones that Denney (or whoever wrote the copy for the iPad app) claims you'll hear.
For example, here is how Denney describes the sound of the "Amplified" base scene: "Maintain[s] the energy of amplified music with sharp leading edges and powerful dynamics. Ideal for live and studio recordings like rock 'n' roll, pop, and modern amplified jazz. In the default setting low frequencies are tight and punchy; midrange is immediate with high frequencies that are not overly smooth, or etched. Advanced Settings: 'Crunchie' removes any politeness from hard-driving electric guitars, horns, and leading edge transients, leaving nothing but the raw amplified event. 'Stadium' opens up the soundfield and is perfect for larger-scale venues."


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Howard Rosenoff is a partner and Head of the Banking and Real Estate Groups. He also is a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Group. Howard serves as Co-Chair of the Montréal office's Associates Committee and as a member of the Montréal office Management Committee. With regard to banking law, he has represented both lenders and borrowers in a variety of financing transactions, including syndicated loans, project financings and asset-based financings. Insofar as project financing is concerned, he has a particular expertise in the financing of films and television programs. His corporate and commercial law practice is focused on private mergers & acquisitions, equity financings, as well as corporate restructurings. In addition, he is experienced in production and distribution matters related to audio-visual works.
Howard is a member of the Canadian Bar Association and the Quebec Bar Association. He is a Gouverneur de la Fondation du Barreau du Québec.


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Recent research findings in the US are providing further evidence that broilers can be protected from new infectious bronchitis variants with a protocol featuring two existing vaccines.
The studies, conducted by the University of Georgia, also revealed a strong correlation between clinical signs, ciliostasis and virus detection, indicating that it's important to consider these three parameters when evaluating cross-protection with infectious bronchitis (IB) virus vaccines.
In 2011, a new, variant IB virus — known as GA11/GPL90/11 (GA11) — was isolated from broilers in north Georgia. The isolate was not related to any viruses used in commercially available vaccines. Molecular virologist Mark Jackwood, PhD, and colleagues designed a challenge study to determine whether they could use what is called a "PROTECTOTYPE protocol" to protect broilers from the new variant.
Added protection
Even though different serotypes of the IB virus generally do not fully cross-protect, there are "gray areas," Jackwood says, noting that some IB serotypes are serologically related to other serotypes "just enough to provide cross-protection." Each is called a "PROTECTOTYPE."
Furthermore, previous research by Jackwood and European investigators has demonstrated that when a live IB vaccine from one serotype is followed by vaccination with an IB variant from another serotype, birds develop immunity to the serotypes in the vaccines — in addition to cross-reacting antibodies to other IB serotypes. The result is broader protection than what either vaccine can provide on its own.
Study protocol
For the challenge study, researchers split the broilers into three groups with different vaccine protocols (Table 1):
- IB Ma5 vaccine at day 1 of age plus a IB DE072 on day 14 of age
- IB Ma5 vaccine on day 1
- IB DE072 vaccine on day 14
The IB Ma5 vaccine is based on the major Ma5 virus serotype, while the IB DE072 vaccine contains a variant of the Delaware IB virus. For controls, birds from each vaccination group were vaccinated but not challenged, while another group was not vaccinated and was challenged.
[In Europe and Latin America, a similar protocol using an Ma5 vaccine on day 1 plus vaccination with IB 4/91, a variant common throughout Europe, has been shown to protect against several IB-virus variants; 4/91 vaccines are not licensed for use in the US, however, so investigators replaced it with the DE072 vaccine.]
Investigators gave each bird a full dose of each vaccine, half by eyedropper and the rest by intranasal application. They then challenged the vaccinated birds with the viruses at 35 days of age with infectious doses.
Clinical signs of IB include mild upper-respiratory-tract disease such as sneezing, tracheal rales, gasping and coughing. In layers, IB can also result in decreased egg quality and production. Some strains of the IB virus, a coronavirus, cause kidney lesions. IB viruses can result in 100% morbidity. Mortality varies and is worse if there are other, co-existing infections such as Escherichia coli.
Understanding IB variants
A serotype is a virus characterized by its neutralizing antibodies that are specific to that virus.
Variants can be a new serotype or an existing virus that has undergone changes in the amino acid sequence of its spike protein, which is on the surface of the virus and may induce neutralizing antibodies.
After the IB virus was first recognized in the early 1930s in the US, the Massachusetts serotype was the only known serotype of the virus for about 15 years.
Today, there are more than 20 recognized serotypes and countless variant IB viruses. In the US, Arkansas remains the most isolated type of IB virus and it is undergoing genetic drift.
Illustration Above:
IB shows a number of characteristic spikes on its surface. These consist of proteins and play an important role in the onset of infection and the corresponding immune response.
For their study, Jackwood and his team considered birds protected from IB if there was > 90% protection from clinical signs, over 50% protection against ciliostasis and > 90% against virus detection. (The ciliostasis test involves microscopic observation; investigators then score the level of ciliary activity.) Based on these criteria, vaccinated broilers were protected against GA11, Mass 41 and GA98, he says.
"For birds that were clearly protected and birds that were not clearly protected, there was a strong correlation between clinical signs, ciliostasis and virus detection," Jackwood reports. For partially protected birds, virus detection was always positive, but clinical signs and results with ciliostasis were variable.
"Based on these data, it appears that it is important to measure clinical signs, ciliostasis and virus detection when evaluating cross-protection in IB virus-vaccinated birds," he said.
In addition, a protocol utilizing existing vaccines appears to provide a method of protecting poultry against several of the IB-variant viruses circulating now in different geographic areas and can alleviate the need for development of new vaccines for every new IB variant that emerges, which would be time consuming and costly.
He notes that maternal antibodies to IB viruses provide homologous protection for 1 or 2 weeks and do not appear to interfere with vaccination.


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38 points
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